Probability Abstracts 46

This document contains abstracts 1034-1096. They have been mailed on August 26, 1998.

1034. CLASSICAL MARKOV PROCESSES FROM QUANTUM LEVY PROCESSES

Uwe Franz

We show how classical Markov processes can be obtained from quantum
L\'evy processes. It is shown that quantum L\'evy processes are
quantum Markov processes, and sufficient conditions for
restrictions to subalgebras to remain quantum Markov processes are
given. A classical Markov process (which has the same time-ordered moments
as the quantum process in the vacuum state) exists whenever we can restrict
to a commutative subalgebra without loosing the quantum Markov property.
Several examples, including the Az\'ema martingale, are presented with
explicit calculations. In particular, the action of the generator of the
classical Markov processes on polynomials or their moments are
calculated using Hopf algebra duality.

franz@math.u-strasbg.fr

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1035. FUNCTIONAL CALCULUS FOR DIRICHLET FORMS

Kazuhiro Kuwae 
  
Our first aim of this paper is to clarify the analytic 
structure of the local space (i.e. localized space in the broad sense) 
in the framework of semi-Dirichlet forms on a 
(not necessarily locally compact) separable metric space.
 The second purpose is to give
the chain rule for the functions in local space 
which is described in terms of energy measure of continuous 
part in the framework of symmetric quasi-regular Dirichlet forms. 
We also propose the stochastic integrals for martingale additive functionals 
locally of finite energy and the chain rule of 
stochastic integrals for these functionals. 

LaTeX file or hard copy is available.
kuwae@is.saga-u.ac.jp

1036. SOBOLEV SPACES, LAPLACIAN, AND HEAT KERNEL ON ALEXANDROV SPACES

Kazuhiro Kuwae,  Yoshiroh Machigashira, Takashi Shioya

Consider a Gromov-Hausdorff limit point for the class of 
n-dimensional closed Riemannaa manifolds with a uniform lower 
bound of sectional curvature and a uniform upper bound of diameter. 
The limits consist of Alexandrov space introduced by 
A.D. Alexandrov (1951). This space is no lomger than topological 
manifold. Otsu-Shioya (1994) discoverd the $C^1$-structure 
for Alexandrov space by deleting the singular set. 
The singular set may be dense in the Alexandrov sapce, so the 
treatment is different from the case of Lipschitz Riemannan manifold.
  This paper is the first study on the Sobolev space, the Laplacian, 
and the heat equation on Alexandrov spaces. We propose a notion of 
DC-structure (DC means "difference of concave function) 
on Alexandrov space. 
The underlying measure is the Haussdorf measure. 
The Dirichlet form is strongly local, regular and 
has a special standard core which consists of 
DC-functions with compact support. Further we show that the singular set 
out of the boundary is 1-capacity 0. 

   We prove the compactness of the imbedding of the Sobolev space 
$W_0^{1,2}(\Omega)$ into $L^2(\Omega)$ for any relatively compact 
open subset $\Omega$ of an Alexandrov space. As a corollary, the 
generator of the canonial Dirichlet form on $W_0^{1,2}(\Omega)$ has 
discrete spectrum. The generator can be approximated by the Laplacian 
induced from the DC-structure. We also prove the existence of the locally 
H\"older continuous Dirichlet heat kernel.

AMS-LaTeX file or hard copy is available.
kuwae@is.saga-u.ac.jp
shioya@math.kyushu-u.ac.jp
machi@cc.osaka-kyoiku.ac.jp

1037. REFLECTED DIRICHLET FORMS AND UNIQUENESS OF SILVERSTEIN'S EXTENSIONS

Kazuhiro Kuwae

Reflected Dirichlet space for quasi-regular 
Dirichlet forms is presented in this paper. We show the closedness
 of the (active) reflected Dirichlet forms without using 
the first definition of reflected Dirichlet space by 
Silverstein(1974)
and the characterization by Chen (1992). We also 
show the maximality of (active) reflected Dirichlet space 
in the class of Silverstein's extensions 
and consider the uniqueness problem which extend the
recent results of Kawabata-Takeda (1996).  
Only the techniques of the transfer method and the change of underlying 
measures are used. 

LaTeX file or hard copy is available.
kuwae@is.saga-u.ac.jp

1038. LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR SMALL NOISE DIFFUSIONS WITH DISCONTINUOUS STATISTICS

Michelle Boue, Paul Dupuis, and Richard S. Ellis

This paper proves the large deviation principle for a class of
non-degenerate small noise diffusions with discontinuous drift
and with state-dependent diffusion matrix. The proof is based 
on a variational representation for functionals of strong 
solutions of stochastic differential equations and on weak
convergence methods.

boue@math.umass.edu  dupuis@cfm.brown.edu  rsellis@math.umass.edu

1039. USING TWO-PARAMETER APPROXIMATIONS TO PROVE LARGE DEVIATION PRINCIPLES

Christopher Boucher and Richard S. Ellis

A new method is introduced for proving process-level
large deviation results.  Based on two-parameter 
approximations, this method is motivated by applications
to the equilibrium statistical mechanics of two-dimensional
fluid turbulence.  The method is explained in the context
of a process-level generalization of Cramer's Theorem
and is then applied to a more complicated process
involving weighted averages of i.i.d. random variables.

boucher@math.umass.edu  rsellis@math.umass.edu

1040. DERIVATION OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRINCIPLES IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL TURBULENCE VIA LARGE DEVIATIONS

Christopher Boucher, Richard S. Ellis, and Bruce Turkington

The continuum limit of lattice models arising in two-dimensional
turbulence is analyzed by means of the theory of large deviations.  
In particular, the Miller-Robert continuum model of equilibrium 
states in an ideal fluid and a modification of that model due to 
Turkington are examined in a unified framework, and the maximum 
entropy principles that govern these models are rigorously derived 
by a new method.  In this method, a doubly indexed, measure-valued 
random process is introduced to represent the coarse-grained vorticity
field.  The natural large deviation principle for this process is 
established and is then used to derive the equilibrium conditions 
satisfied by the most probable macrostates in the continuum models.  
The physical implications of these results are discussed, and some 
modeling issues of importance to the theory of long-lived, large-scale
coherent vortices in turbulent flows are clarified.

boucher@math.umass.edu  rsellis@math.umass.edu  turk@math.umass.edu

1041. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR THE HIERARCHY OF FREENESS

Uwe Franz and Romuald Lenczewski

The central limit theorem and the invariance principle 
for the hierarchy of freeness are studied. We show that for given
$m\in N$ the limit law can be expressed in terms of
non-crossing partitions of depth smaller or equal to $m$.
For ${\cal A}=C[x]$, we solve the associated 
moment problems and find explicitly 
the discrete limit measures $\mu^{(m)}$
which approximate weakly the Wigner measure.

franz@math.u-strasbg.fr,  lenczew@im.pwr.wroc.pl

1042. THE GNS CONSTRUCTION FOR THE HIERARCHY OF FREENESS

Uwe Franz, Romuald Lenczewski, and Michael Sch\"urmann

The GNS representation of the hierarchy of freeness is constructed.
It is shown that the $m$-free product corresponds to the
truncation of order $m$ of the free product representation.
This is done by means of introducing suitable intertwining
operators between the underlying pre-Hilbert spaces. 
This approach leads to the representation of free random
variables as strongly convergent series.

franz@math.u-strasbg.fr, schurman@math.u-strasbg.fr, lenczew@im.pwr.wroc.pl

1043. OPERATOR SEMI-SELFDECOMPOSABILITY, (C,Q)-DECOMPOSABILITY AND RELATED NESTED CLASSES

Makoto Maejima, Ken-iti Sato and Toshiro Watanabe 

There are two types of generalizations of selfdecomposability of 
probability measures on $\bold R^d$, $d\ge1$: the $c$-decomposability and 
the $C$-decomposability of Lo\`eve and Bunge on the one hand, and the
semi-selfdecomposability of Maejima-Naito on the other. The latter
implies infinite divisibility but the former does not in general. 
For $d\ge2$ introduction of operator (matrix) normalizations yields
four kinds of classes of distributions on $\bold R^d$: $L_0(b,Q)$, 
$\widetilde L_0(b,Q)$, $L_0(C,Q)$, and $\widetilde L_0(C,Q)$,
where $0<b<1$, $Q$ is a $d\times d$ matrix with eigenvalues having
positive real parts, and $C$ is a closed multiplicative subsemigroup
of $[0,1]$ containing 0 and 1. Further, each of these classes 
generates the Urbanik-Sato type decreasing sequence of its 
subclasses. Characterizations and relations of these classes and
subclasses are established. They complement and generalize results of 
Bunge, Jurek, Maejima-Naito, and Sato-Yamazato.

maejima@math.keio.ac.jp

1044. COMPLETELY OPERATOR SEMI-SELFDECOMPOSABLE DISTRIBUTIONS

Makoto Maejima, Ken-iti Sato and Toshiro Watanabe

The class $L_{\infty}(b,Q)$ of completely operator semi-selfdecomposable 
distributions on $\bold R^d$ for $b$ and $Q$ is studied. 
Here $0<b<1$ and $Q$ is a $d\times d$ matrix whose eigenvalues have 
positive real parts. 
This is the limiting class of the decreasing sequence of classes 
$L_m(b,Q)$, $m=-1,0,1,\dots$, where $L_{-1}(b,Q)$ is the class of all
infinitely divisible distributions on $\bold R^d$ and $L_m(b,Q)$ is 
defined inductively as the class of distributions $\mu$ with 
characteristic function $\widehat\mu(z)$ satisfying 
$\widehat\mu(z)=\widehat\mu(b^{Q'}z)\widehat\rho(z)$
for some $\rho\in L_{m-1}(b,Q)$. $Q'$ is the transpose of $Q$.
Distributions in $L_{\infty}(b,Q)$ are characterized in terms of
Gaussian covariance matrices and L\'evy measures. 
The connection with the class $OSS(b,Q)$ of operator semi-stable 
distributions on $\bold R^d$ for $b$ and $Q$ is established.

maejima@math.keio.ac.jp

1045. A PHASE TRANSITION IN RANDOM COIN TOSSING

David Levin, Robin Pemantle and Yuval Peres

Suppose that a coin with bias $\theta$ is tossed at renewal times of a
renewal process, and a fair coin is tossed at all other times.  Let
$\mu_\theta$ be the distribution of the observed sequence of coin tosses,
and let $u_n$ denote the chance of a renewal at time $n$. Harris and 
Keane~(1997) showed that if ${u_n}$ are not square-summable, then 
$\mu_\theta$ and $\mu_0$ are singular, while if ${u_n}$ are square-summable
and the bias $\theta$ is small enough, then $\mu_\theta$ is absolutely
continuous with respect to $\mu_0$.  They conjectured that absolute 
continuity should not depend on $\theta$, but only on the square-summability 
of ${u_n}$. We show that in fact, the power law governing the decay of
${u_n}$ is crucial, and for some renewal sequences, there is a phase 
transition at a  critical parameter $\theta_c \in (0,1)$: 
for $ |\theta|<\theta_c$ the measures $\mu_\theta$ and $\mu_0$ are mutually
absolutely continuous, but for $|\theta|>\theta_c$, they are singular. 
Moreover, for these sequences, the unknown bias can be recovered from 
the observations if it is large enough. When ${u_n}$ are not 
square-summable, the unknown bias can always be recovered.

levin@stat.berkeley.edu  pemantle@math.wisc.edu  peres@stat.berkeley.edu       

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1046. MARKOV CHAINS IN A FIELD OF TRAPS

Robin Pemantle and Stas Volkov

We consider a Markov chain on a countable state space, on which is
placed a random field of traps, and ask whether the chain gets trapped
almost surely.  We show that the quenched problem (when the traps are
fixed) is equivalent to the annealed problem (when the traps are updated
each unit of time) and give a criterion for almost sure trapping versus
positive probability of non-trapping.  The hypotheses on the Markov chain
are minimal, and in particular, our results encompass the results of
den Hollander, Menshikov and Volkov (1995).

pemantle@math.wisc.edu , svolkov@ssc.wisc.edu

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1047. VERTEX-REINFORCED RANDOM WALK ON Z HAS FINITE RANGE

Robin Pemantle and Stas Volkov

A stochastic process called Vertex-Reinforced Random Walk (VRRW) is 
defined in Pemantle (1988a).  We consider this process in the case
where the underlying graph is an infinite chain (i.e., the one-dimensional
integer lattice).  We show that the range is almost surely finite,
that at least 5 points are visited infinitely often almost surely,
and that with positive probability the range contains exactly 5 points.
There are always points visited infinitely often but at a set of times
of zero density, and we show that the number of visits to such a point
to time $n$ may be asymptotically $n^\alpha$ for a dense set of 
values $\alpha \in (0,1)$.  The power law analysis relies on analysis
of a related urn model.

pemantle@math.wisc.edu , svolkov@ssc.wisc.edu

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1048. ABSENCE OF MUTUAL UNBOUNDED GROWTH FOR ALMOST ALL PARAMETER VALUES IN THE TWO-TYPE RICHARDSON MODEL

Olle H\"aggstr\"om and Robin Pemantle

We study the two-type Richardson model on ${\bf Z}^d$, $d\geq 2$, 
in the asymmetric case where
the two particle types have different infection rates. Starting with a
single particle of each type, and fixing the infection rate for one
of the types, we show that mutual unbounded growth has probability $0$ for
all but at most countably many values of the other type's infection rate. 

olleh@math.chalmers.se , pemantle@math.wisc.edu

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1049. MANIFOLD-VALUED MARTINGALES, CHANGES OF PROBABILITIES, AND SMOOTHNESS OF FINELY HARMONIC MAPS

Marc Arnaudon,  Xue-Mei Li  and  Anton Thalmaier

This paper is concerned with regularity results for starting points 
of continuous manifold-valued martingales with fixed terminal value 
under a possibly singular change of probability. 
In particular, if the martingales live in a small neighbourhood
of a point and if the stochastic logarithm $M$ of the change
of probability varies in some Hardy space $H_r$ for sufficiently 
large $r<2$, then the starting point is differentiable at $M=0$. 
As an application, our results imply that continuous finely harmonic 
maps between manifolds are smooth, and the differentials have 
stochastic representations not involving derivatives. 
This gives a probabilistic alternative to the coupling technique 
used by Kendall (1994) to prove smoothness of finely harmonic maps.

arnaudon@math.u-strasbg.fr,  xmli@math.uconn.edu, 
anton.thalmaier@mathematik.uni-regensburg.de (postscript file available)

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1050. ON A CONJECTURE OF D.G.KENDALL CONCERNING THE PLANAR CROFTON CELL AND ON ITS BROWNIAN COUNTERPART

Andre Goldman

Consider a homogeneous Poisson line process in the plane and the associated
random convex tesselation. We obtain a precise estimation of the distribution
of the "large aera" of the Crofton cell (the random polygon containing the
origin). This result implies that, expressed in term of eigenvalues, the
large Crofton cell are nearly circular (which sustain a conjecture stated
by D.G.Kendall in the forties). We deduce also from this the precice 
asymptotic behavior of the Laplace transform of the perimeter of the convex
hull of Brownian motion run till time 1.This last result implies that the 
small convex hulls of Brownian motion are nearly circular.
 
goldman@jonas.univ-lyon1.fr

1051. NON-SYMMETRIC APPROXIMATIONS FOR MANIFOLD-VALUED SEMIMARTINGALES

Serge Cohen and Anne Estrade

We study general approximations of continuous semimartingales in a
manifold. Classically the limits of integrals with respect to the
approximated semimartingales yield Stratonovich integrals. Nevertheless
several authors have remarked that  a skew-symmetric extra-term may
appear for specific approximations when the manifold is a vector space.
 We give the  geometric meaning of the  
skew-symmetric term and  an interpretation in term of a 
``second order non-symmetric intrinsic calculus''. This stochastic
non-symmetric calculus is further extended to stochastic differential equations
between manifolds.  A particular emphasis
is pointed on the role of interpolators in approximations.

cohen@math.uvsq.fr   estrade@labomath.univ-orleans.fr

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1052. THE THEORY OF LARGE DEVIATIONS: FROM BOLTZMANN'S 1877 CALCULATION TO EQUILIBRIUM MACROSTATES IN 2D TURBULENCE

Richard S. Ellis

After presenting some basic ideas in the theory of large
deviations, this paper applies the theory to a number of problems
in statistical mechanics.   These include deriving the form
of the Gibbs state for a random ideal gas; describing
probabilistically the phase transition in the Curie-Weiss 
model of a ferromagnet; and deriving variational formulas 
that describe the equilibrium macrostates in models
of two-dimensional turbulence.   A general approach
to the large deviation analysis of models in statistical
mechanics is also formulated.  

rsellis@math.umass.edu

1053. CONSTRUCTION OF DIFFUSIONS ON CONFIGURATION SPACES

Zhi--Ming Ma and Michael R\"ockner

We show that any  square field operator on a measurable state space $E$ can
be lifted by a natural procedure to a square field operator on the
corresponding (multiple)  configuration space $\bar\Gamma_E$. We then 
show the closability of the associated lifted
(pre--)Dirichlet forms $\Emug$ on $L^2(\bar\Gamma_E;\mu)$ for a large class of
measures $\mu$ on $\barge$ (without assuming an integration by parts formula)
generalizing all corresponding results known so far. Subsequently,
we   prove that under mild conditions the Dirichlet forms 
$\Emug$ are quasi--regular, and that hence  there
exist associated diffusions on $\bar\Gamma_E$, provided $E$ is a complete 
separable metric space and $\bar\Gamma_E$  is equipped with a suitable topology,
which is the vague topology if $E$ is locally compact. We discuss 
applications to the case where $E$ is a finite dimensional manifold yielding 
an existence result on diffusions on $\bar\Gamma_E$ which was already 
announced in \cite{AKR96a, AKR96b},
resp.~used in  \cite{AKR98, AKR97b}. Furthermore, we present applications in 
particular detail to  the case where $E$ is the free loop space.

roeckner@mathematik.uni-bielefeld.de

1054. ROBUST PHASE TRANSITIONS FOR SPHERICAL AND OTHER MODELS ON GENERAL TREES

Robin Pemantle and Jeffrey Steif

We study several statistical mechanical models on a general tree. 
Particular attention is devoted to the spherical models, where the 
state space is the $d$--dimensional unit sphere and the interactions 
are proportional to the cosines of the angles between neighboring 
spins.  The phenomenon of interest here is the classification of 
phase transition (non-uniqueness of the Gibbs state) according to 
whether it is {\it robust}. In many cases, including all of the 
spherical and Potts models, occurrence of robust phase transition 
is determined by the geometry (branching number) of the tree in a 
way that parallels the situation with independent percolation and 
usual phase transition for the Ising model. The critical values for 
robust phase transition for the spherical and Potts models are also 
calculated exactly. In some cases, such as the $q\ge 3$ Potts model, 
robust phase transition and usual phase transition do not coincide, 
while in other cases, such as the spherical models, we conjecture that 
robust phase transition and usual phase transition are equivalent. 
In addition, we show that symmetry breaking is equivalent to the 
existence of a phase transition, a fact believed but not known for 
the rotor model on $Z^2$.

pemantle@math.wisc.edu steif@math.chalmers.se

1055. SCATTERING PROBLEM FOR LOCAL PERTURBATIONS OF THE FREE QUANTUM GAS

Yu.~G.~Kondratiev, A.~Yu.~Konstantinov, M.~R\"ockner and G.~V.~Shchepan'uk

   Scattering theory for perturbations of the intrinsic Dirichlet
(Laplace-Beltrami) operator $H_0=-\div^\Ga\na^\Ga$ on $L_2(\Ga,\pi_z)$,
{\it ie} the space of $\pi_z$-square integrable functions on the
configuration space $\Ga$ over $\BbR^d$, is studied. Here $\pi_z$
denotes Poisson measure with intensity $z$. We show that for an
arbitrary regular non-zero potential $V$ the standard wave operators
$W^{\pm}(H_0,H_0+V)$ do not exist, and propose to consider Dirichlet
operators of perturbed Poisson measures instead of potential
perturbations of the Hamiltonian $H_0$. As case studies, cylindric
smooth densities and finite volume Gibbs perturbations of the Poisson
measure are considered. In these cases the existence of the corresponding
wave operators is proved.

kondratiev@wiener.iam.uni-bonn.de 

1056. UNIQUENESS FOR GIBBS STATES OF QUANTUM LATTICES IN SMALL MASS REGIME

Sergio Albeverio, Yuri Kondratiev,  Yuri Kozitsky and Michael R\"ockner

   The model of interacting quantum particles of mass $m$
performing anharmonic one--dimensional oscillations
around their unstable equilibrium positions, which form the $d$--
dimensional simple cubic lattice $\Z^d$, is considered. For this
model, it is proved that for every fixed value of the temperature
$\b^{-1}$, there exists a positive $m_{*}(\b )$ such that  if
$m \in (0, m_{*}(\b))$, then the set of tempered Gibbs
states consists of exactly one element.

kondratiev@wiener.iam.uni-bonn.de 

1057. THICK POINTS FOR SPATIAL BROWNIAN MOTION: MULTIFRACTAL ANALYSIS OF OCCUPATION MEASURE

Amir Dembo, Yuval Peres, Jay Rosen and Ofer Zeitouni

Let $T(x,r)$ denote the total occupation measure of the ball of radius
$r$ centered at $x$ for Brownian motion in $R^3$. We prove that the
supremum over the unit ball in $R^3$ of $T(x,r)/(r^2|\log r|)$, tends
to $16/\pi^2$ a.s. as $r$ tends to $0$, thus solving a problem posed by
Taylor in 1974. Furthermore, for any $a$ in $(0,16/\pi^2)$, the Hausdorff
dimension of the set of ``thick points'' $x$ for which
$\limsup_{r \rightarrow 0}  T(x,r)/(r^2|\log r|)=a$, is almost surely
$2-a\pi^2/8$.
This is the correct scaling to obtain a nondegenerate ``multifractal spectrum''
for Brownian occupation measure. Analogous results hold for Brownian motion
in any dimension $d>3$. These results are related to the LIL of Ciesielski and
Taylor (1962) for the Brownian occupation measure of small balls, in the same
way that L\'{e}vy's uniform modulus of continuity, and the formula of Orey and
Taylor (1974) for the dimension of ``fast points'', are related to the usual
LIL. We also show that the $\liminf$ scaling of $T(x,r)$ is quite different:
we exhibit non-random $c_1,c_2>0$, such that
$c_1 <  \sup_x \liminf_{r \rightarrow 0} T(x,r)/r^2 < c_2 $, a.s.
In the course of our work we provide a general framework for obtaining lower
bounds on the Hausdorff dimension of random fractals of `limsup type'.

jrosen3@idt.net peres@stat.berkeley.edu amir@playfair.stanford.edu
zeitouni@ee.technion.ac.il   (ps file available)

1058. CROSSING ESTIMATES AND CONVERGENCE OF DIRICHLET FUNCTIONS ALONG RANDOM WALK AND DIFFUSION PATHS

Alano Ancona, Russell Lyons and Yuval Peres

Let $\{X_n\}$  be a transient reversible Markov chain and let $f$ be a
function on the state space with finite Dirichlet energy. We prove crossing
inequalities for the process $\{f(X_n)\}_{n \ge 1}$ and show that it
converges almost surely and in $L^2$.  Analogous results are also
established for reversible diffusions on Riemannian manifolds.

ancona@matups.math.u-psud.fr rdlyons@indiana.edu peres@stat.berkeley.edu

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1059. HOW TO MAKE A HILL PLOT

Holger Drees, Laurens de Haan and Sidney Resnick

An abundance of high quality data sets requiring heavy tailed models
necessitates reliable methods of estimating the shape parameter
governing the degree of tail heaviness. The Hill estimator is a
popular method for doing this but its practical use is encumbered by
several difficulties. We show that an alternative method of plotting
Hill estimator values is more revealing than the standard method
unless the underlying data comes from a Pareto distribution.

hdrees@mi.uni-koeln.de  ldhaan@few.eur.nl  sid@orie.cornell.edu

1060. ON EXCURSION SETS, TUBE FORMULAE, AND MAXIMA OF RANDOM FIELDS

Robert J. Adler 

This is rather rambling review of what, with a few notable exceptions,
has been a rather dormant area for over a decade. It concentrates on the
septuagenarian problem of finding good approximations for the excursion 
probability 
                   $P\{\sup_{t\in T} X_t \geq \lambda\}$ 

where $\lambda$ is large, $X$ is a Gaussian, or ``Gaussian-like'', process 
over a region $T\subset \Re^N$, and, generally, $N>1$. 

A quarter of a century ago there was a flurry of papers out of various schools
linking this problem to the geometrical properties of random field sample 
paths. My own papers made the link via Euler characteristics of the excursion 
sets $\{t\in T:X_t\geq\lambda\}$. A decade ago, Aldous popularised the Poisson
clumping heuristic for computing excursion probabilties in a wide variety of 
scenarios, including the Gaussian. Over the past few years, Keith Worsley has
been the driving force behind the computation of many new Euler characteristic
functionals, primarily driven by applications in medical imaging. There has 
also been a parallel development of techniques in the astrophysical 
literature. Meanwhile, somewhat closer to home, Hotelling's 1939 ``tube 
formulae" have seen a renaissance as sophisticated statistical hypothesis 
testing problems led to their reapplication towards computing excursion 
probabilities. 

The aim of the present paper is to look again at many of these results, and 
tie them together in new ways to obtain a few new results and, hopefully, 
considerable new insight. The ``Punchline of this paper", which relies 
heavily on a recent result of Piterbarg,is given in Section 6.6: 
"In computing excursion probabilities for smooth enough
Gaussian random fields over reasonable enough regions, the expected Euler 
characteristic of the corresponding excursion sets gives an approximation, 
for large levels, that is accurate to as many terms as there are in its 
expansion." 

robert@ieadler.technion.ac.il, robert@adler.stat.unc.edu,

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1061. ON CHANGES OF MEASURE FOR SUPER BROWNIAN MOTION

Robert J. Adler and Srikanth K. Iyer 

Let X be a superprocess under the measure P. We show the existence of 
probability measures which are absolutely continuous with respect to P,
and whose Radon-Nikodym derivatives are suitably normalized functions of 
the self intersection local time of X. These measures correspond to
measure valued processes exhibiting a certain amount of (reinforcing) self 
interaction in terms of both the particle motion and the branching
mechanism. 

skiyer@iitk.ernet.in,robert@ieadler.technion.ac.il, robert@adler.stat.unc.edu

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1062. ANALYSING STABLE TIME SERIES

Robert J. Adler, Raisa E. Feldman, and Colin Gallagher 

We describe how to take a stable, ARMA, time series through the various 
stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic
checking, and accompany the discussion with a goodly number of large scale 
simulations that show which methods do and do not work, and where
some of the pitfalls and problems associated with stable time series 
modelling lie. 

epstein@pstat.ucsb.edu, robert@ieadler.technion.ac.il, 
robert@adler.stat.unc.edu

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1063. IBM, SIBM and IBS

John Verzani and Robert J. Adler 

We construct a super iterated Brownian motion (SIBM) from a historical 
version of an iterated Brownian motion (IBM) using an iterated Brownian
snake (IBS). 

It is shown that the range of super iterated Brownian motion is qualitatively 
quite different from that of super Brownian motion in that there are points
with explosions in the branching. However, at a fixed time the support of 
super iterated Brownian motion has an exact Hausdorff measure function
that is the same (up to a constant) as that of super Brownian motion at a 
fixed time. 

verzani@postbox.csi.cuny.edu, robert@ieadler.technion.ac.il, 
robert@adler.stat.unc.edu,

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1064. NONLINEAR MODELS FOR TIME SERIES USING MIXTURES OF AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

Assaf J. Zeevi, Ronny Meir, and Robert J. Adler

We consider a novel non-linear model for time series analysis. The study 
of this model emphasizes both theoretical aspects as well as practical 
applicability. The architecture of the model is demonstrated to be 
sufficiently rich, in the sense of approximating  unknown functional 
forms, yet it retains some of the simple and intuitive characteristics
of linear models. A comparison to some more established non-linear models
will be emphasized, and theoretical issues are backed by prediction results
for benchmark time series, as well as  computer generated data sets. 

Efficient estimation algorithms are seen to be applicable, made possible 
by the mixture based structure of the model. Large sample properties of 
We consider a novel class of non-linear models for time series analysis. 
The proposed model uses mixtures of local autoregressive models; 
we term this class the MixAR. The MixAR model is constructed so that locally
(in the state space), the process follows a linear autoregressive structure. 
In addition, there is a state dependent probability distribution defined over
the different AR models.

This structure is realized via Markov process with transition kernel that 
is a mixture of Gaussians with non-constant, state dependent, class 
probabilities. This in turn endows the model with many attractive features, 
that will be illustrated in this study.

Several theoretical aspects are investigated;  sufficient conditions for 
stochastic stability, parameter estimation algorithms, as well as  
the universality of the model in approximating underlying prediction 
functions. A comparison to some more established non-linear models 
(including neural networks), and numerical prediction results for 
benchmark time series, complement the theoretical results. 

azeevi@isl.stanford.edu, rmeir@dumbo.technion.ac.il
robert@ieadler.technion.ac.il, robert@adler.stat.unc.edu,

1065. CONSTRUCTING AND COUNTING PHYLOGENETIC INVARIANTS

Steven N. Evans and Xiaowen Zhou

The method of invariants is an approach to the problem of reconstructing
the phylogenetic tree of a collection of $m$
taxa using nucleotide sequence
data.  Models for the respective probabilities of the  
$4^m$ possible vectors of bases at a given site will have
unknown parameters that describe the random walk by which substitution
occurs along the branches of a putative phylogenetic tree.
An invariant is a polynomial in these probabilities that, for a given
phylogeny, is zero for all choices of the substitution mechanism
parameters.  If the invariant is typically non--zero for another
phylogenetic tree, then estimates of the invariant can be used
as evidence to support one phylogeny over another. 

Previous work of
Evans and Speed showed that, for certain commonly used substitution models,
the problem of finding a minimal generating
set for the ideal of invariants can be reduced to the linear algebra
problem of finding a basis for a certain lattice 
(that is, a free $\bZ$-module).
They also conjectured that the cardinality of such a generating set
can be computed using a simple ``degrees of freedom'' formula.
We verify this conjecture.  Along the way, we explain in detail how
the observations of Evans and Speed lead to a simple, computationally
feasible algorithm for constructing a minimal generating set.

evans@stat.berkeley.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1066. KINGMAN'S COALESCENT AS A RANDOM METRIC SPACE

Steven N. Evans

Kingman's coalescent is a Markov process that originally
arose in population genetics.  It has state--space
the collection of partitions of the positive integers.  Its initial state
is the trivial partition of singletons and it evolves
by successive pairwise mergers of blocks.  The coalescent
induces a metric on the positive integers: the distance
between two integers is the time until they both belong
to the same block.  We investigate the completion of this
(random) metric space.  We show that almost surely it is
a compact metric space with Hausdorff and packing dimension
both $1$, and it has positive capacities in precisely the same
gauges as the unit interval. 

evans@stat.berkeley.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1067. A STRONG LAW FOR THE LONGEST EDGE OF THE MINIMAL SPANNING TREE

Mathew D. Penrose

Suppose $X1, X2, X3, ...$ are independent random
points in 2 or more dimensions, with common density $f$,
having connected compact support $A$ with smooth boundary
$dU$. Assume the restriction of $f$ to $A$ is continuous.
Let $M_n$ denote the smallest $r$ such that the union
of balls of diameter $r$ centred at the
the first $n$ points is connected.
We derive an almost sure limit for $(n/ \log n) M_n^d$.

Mathew.Penrose@durham.ac.uk

1068. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR K-NEAREST NEIGHBOUR DISTANCES

Mathew D. Penrose

Let $X1, X2, X3, ... $ be indepedent $d$-dimensional variables
with common density function $f$. Let $R_{i,k,n}$ be the distance
from $Xi$ to its $k$-th nearest neighbour in $\{X1,  ... ,Xn\}$.
Suppose $(k_n)$ is a sequence with $1 << k_n << n^{2/(2+d)}$ as
$n$ tends to infinity (or $ 1 << k_n << n^{2/3}$ for a uniform
distribution).
Subject to conditions on $f$, we find a central limit theorem 
(in the large-$n$ limit) for a time-change of the counting process with jumps
at the points $f(Xi) R_{i,k_n,n}^d$, $1 \leq i \leq n$.    

Mathew.Penrose@durham.ac.uk

1069. POISSON LIMITS FOR PAIRWISE AND AREA INTERACTION POINT PROCESSES

S. Rao Jammalamadaka and Mathew D. Penrose

Suppose $n$ particles $x_i$ in a region of the plane
(possibly representing biological individuals - trees, organisms)
have a joint density proportional to 

 $\exp \{ -\sum_{i<j} \phi(n(x_i - x_j))\}$, 

with $\phi$ a specified function of compact support.
We obtain a Poisson process limit for the collection of
rescaled  interparticle distances as $n$ becomes large.
We give corresponding results for the case of several types
of particles, representing different species, and also for
the area-interaction (Widom-Rowlinson) point process of interpenetrating
spheres.

Mathew.Penrose@durham.ac.uk

1070. CONCRETE REPRESENTATION OF MARTINGALES

Stephen J. Montgomery-Smith 

  Let (f_n) be a mean zero vector valued martingale sequence. Then there exist
vector valued functions (d_n) from [0,1]^n such that int_0^1 d_n(x_1,...,x_n)
dx_n = 0 for almost all x_1,...,x_{n-1}, and such that the law of (f_n) is the
same as the law of (sum_{k=1}^n d_k(x_1,...,x_k)) . Similar results for tangent
sequences and sequences satisfying condition (C.I.) are presented. We also
present a weaker version of a result of McConnell that provides a Skorohod like
representation for vector valued martingales. This paper may be found at
http://math.missouri.edu/~stephen/preprints

stephen@cauchy.math.missouri.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1071. INSURANCE POLICY VALUE AND PARETO-OPTIMAL RETENTION IN THE HYPOTHESIS OF RARE LOSS EVENTS

Renato Ghisellini

  In the hypothesis of rare loss events, the general expression of the policy
value has been determined as a functional of the "expected frequency / loss
severity" function and of the retention function. Exponential disutility has
been chosen after mathematical characterization of some of its economical
aspects, where functional properties of quasiarithmetic averages have been
used. By means of variational techniques, in the case of a risk neutral Insurer
the Pareto-optimal retention function has been finally determined.

sistemi.srl@galactica.it

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1072. ON THE NUMBER OF INCIPIENT SPANNING CLUSTERS

Michael Aizenman 

  In critical percolation models, in a large cube there will typically be more
than one cluster of comparable diameter. In 2D, the probability of $k>>1$
spanning clusters is of the order $e^{-\alpha k^{2}}$. In dimensions d>6,
when $\eta = 0$ the spanning clusters proliferate: for $L\to \infty$ the
spanning probability tends to one, and there typically are $ \approx L^{d-6}$
spanning clusters of size comparable to $|\C_{max}| \approx L^4$. The rigorous
results confirm a generally accepted picture for d>6, but also correct some
misconceptions concerning the uniqueness of the dominant cluster. We
distinguish between two related concepts: the Incipient Infinite Cluster, which
is unique partly due to its construction, and the Incipient Spanning Clusters,
which are not. The scaling limits of the ISC show interesting differences
between low (d=2) and high dimensions. In the latter case (d>6 ?) we find
indication that the double limit: infinite volume and zero lattice spacing,
when properly defined would exhibit both percolation at the critical state and
infinitely many infinite clusters.

aizenman@Princeton.EDU (Michael Aizenman)

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1073. THE CONTINUOUS SPIN RANDOM FIELD MODEL: FERROMAGNETIC ORDERING IN D>=3

Christof Kuelske

  We investigate the Gibbs-measures of ferromagnetically coupled continuous
spins in double-well potentials subjected to a random field (our specific
example being the $\phi^4$ theory), showing ferromagnetic ordering in $d\geq 3$
dimensions for weak disorder and large energy barriers. We map the random
continuous spin distributions to distributions for an Ising-spin system by
means of a single-site coarse-graining method described by local transition
kernels. We derive a contour- representation for them with notably positive
contour activities and prove their Gibbsianness. This representation is shown
to allow for application of the discrete-spin renormalization group developed
by Bricmont/Kupiainen implying the result in $d\geq 3$.

kuelske@wias-berlin.de

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1074. FACTOR MAPS BETWEEN TILING DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

Karl Petersen

  We show that there is no Curtis-Hedlund-Lyndon Theorem for factor maps
between tiling dynamical systems: there are codes between such systems which
cannot be achieved by working within a finite window. By considering
1-dimensional tiling systems, which are the same as flows under functions on
subshifts with finite alphabets of symbols, we construct a `simple' code which
is not `local', a local code which is not simple, and a continuous code which
is neither local nor simple.

petersen@math.unc.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1075. UNITARY BROWNIAN MOTIONS ARE LINEARIZABLE

Boris Tsirelson

  Brownian motions in the infinite-dimensional group of all unitary operators
are studied under strong continuity assumption rather than norm continuity.
Every such motion can be described in terms of a countable collection of
independent one-dimensional Brownian motions. The proof involves continuous
tensor products and continuous quantum measurements. A by-product: a Brownian
motion in a separable F-space (not locally convex) is a Gaussian process.

tsirel@math.tau.ac.il

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1076. SOME PROPERTIES OF THE RANGE OF SUPER-BROWNIAN MOTION

Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Delmas

  We consider a super-Brownian motion $X$. Its canonical measures can be
studied through the path-valued process called the Brownian snake. We obtain
the limiting behavior of the volume of the $\epsilon$-neighborhood for the
range of the Brownian snake, and as a consequence we derive the analogous
result for the range of super-Brownian motion and for the support of the
integrated super-Brownian excursion. Then we prove the support of $X_t$ is
capacity-equivalent to $[0,1]^2$ in $\R^d$, $d\geq 3$, and the range of $X$, as
well as the support of the integrated super-Brownian excursion are
capacity-equivalent to $[0,1]^4$ in $\R^d$, $d\geq 5$.

delmas@msri.org

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1077. CHARACTERIZATION OF G-REGULARITY FOR SUPER-BROWNIAN MOTION AND CONSEQUENCES FOR PARABOLIC PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Delmas and Jean-St\'ephane Dhersin

  We give a characterization of G-regularity for super-Brownian motion and the
Brownian snake. More precisely, we define a capacity on $E=(0,\infty)\times
\R^d$, which is not invariant by translation. We then prove that the hitting
probability of a Borel set $A\subset E$ for the graph of the Brownian snake
starting at $(0,0)$ is comparable, up to multiplicative constants, to its
capacity. This implies that super-Brownian motion started at time 0 at the
Dirac mass $\delta_0$ hits immediately $A$ (that is $(0,0)$ is G-regular for
$A^c$) if and only if its capacity is infinite. As a direct consequence, if
$Q\subset E$ is a domain such that $(0,0)\in \partial Q$, we give a necessary
and sufficient condition for the existence on $Q$ of a positive solution of
$\partial_t u+{1/2}\Delta u =2u^2$ which blows up at $(0,0)$. We also give an
estimation of the hitting probabilities for the support of super-Brownian
motion at fixed time. We prove that if $d\geq 2$, the support of super-Brownian
motion is intersection-equivalent to the range of Brownian motion.

delmas@msri.org

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1078. EQUILIBRIUM CONDITION IN INSURANCE PRICING: A PARTICULAR CASE

Renato Ghisellini

  Equilibrium pricing has been proven to underlie the rational Insured
expectancy of premia additivity for composition of policies fully covering
independent risks.

sistemi.srl@galactica.it

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1079. LOSS NETWORK REPRESENTATION OF PEIERLS CONTOURS

Roberto Fern\'andez, Pablo A. Ferrari, Nancy L. Garcia

  We present a probabilistic approach for the study of systems with exclusions,
in the regime traditionally studied via cluster-expansion methods. In this
paper we focus on its application for the gases of Peierls contours found in
the study of the Ising model at low temperatures, but most of the results are
general. We realize the equilibrium measure as the invariant measure of a
loss-network process whose existence is ensured by a subcriticality condition
of a dominant branching process. In this regime, the approach yields, besides
existence and uniqueness of the measure, properties such as exponential space
convergence and mixing, and a central limit theorem. The loss network converges
exponentially fast to the equilibrium measure, without metastable traps. This
convergence is faster at low temperatures, where it leads to the proof of an
asymptotic Poisson distribution of contours. Our results on the mixing
properties of the measure are comparable to those obtained with
``duplicated-variables expansion'', used to treat systems with disorder and
coupled map lattices. It works in a larger region of validity than usual
cluster-expansion formalisms, and it is not tied to the analyticity of the
pressure. In fact, it does not lead to any kind of expansion for the latter,
and the properties of the equilibrium measure are obtained without resorting to
combinatorial or complex analysis techniques.

pablo@ime.usp.br

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1080. DECAY OF CORRELATIONS FOR NON H\"{O}LDERIAN DYNAMICS. A COUPLING APPROACH

Xavier Bressaud, Roberto Fern\'andez and Antonio Galves

  We present an upper bound on the mixing rate of the equilibrium state of a
dynamical systems defined by the one-sided shift and a non H\"{o}lder potential
of summable variations. The bound follows from an estimation of the relaxation
speed of chains with complete connections with summable decay, which is
obtained via a explicit coupling between pairs of chains with different
histories.

rf@ime.usp.br

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1081. COMPLETE RESOLUTION OF THE EPR-BELL PARADOX

Laszlo E. Szabo 

  Reichenbach's Common Cause Principle claims that if there is correlation
between two events and none of them is directly causally influenced by the
other, then there must exist a third event that can, as a common cause, account
for the correlation. The EPR-Bell paradox consists in the problem that we
observe correlations between spatially separated events in the EPR-experiments,
which do not admit common-cause-type explanation; and it must therefore be
inevitably concluded, that, contrary to relativity theory, in the realm of
quantum physics there exists action at a distance, or at least superluminal
causal propagation is possible; that is, either relativity theory or
Reichenbachs common cause principle fails. This paradox will be completely
resolved in this paper. By means of closer analyses of the concept of common
cause and a more precise reformulation of the EPR experimental scenario, I will
sharpen the conclusion we can draw from the violation of Bell's inequalities.
It will be explicitly shown that the correlations we encounter in the EPR
experiment could have common causes; that is, Reichenbach's Common Cause
Principle does not fail in quantum mechanics. Moreover, these common causes are
entirely compatible with locality principle of relativity.

szabol@caesar.elte.hu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1082. ON REICHENBACH'S COMMON CAUSE PRINCIPLE AND REICHENBACH'S NOTION OF COMMON CAUSE

G. Hofer-Szabo, M. Redei, L. E. Szabo 

  It is shown that, given any finite set of pairs of random events in a Boolean
algebra which are correlated with respect to a fixed probability measure on the
algebra, the algebra can be extended in such a way that the extension contains
events that can be regarded as common causes of the correlations in the sense
of Reichenbach's definition of common cause. It is shown, further, that, given
any quantum probability space and any set of commuting events in it which are
correlated with respect to a fixed quantum state, the quantum probability space
can be extended in such a way that the extension contains common causes of all
the selected correlations, where common cause is again taken in the sense of
Reichenbach's definition. It is argued that these results very strongly
restrict the possible ways of disproving Reichenbach's Common Cause Principle.

szabol@caesar.elte.hu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1083. ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY OVER INFINITE EXTENSIONS OF A LOCAL FIELD

Anatoly N. Kochubei 

  We consider an infinite extension $K$ of a local field of zero characteristic
which is a union of an increasing sequence of finite extensions. $K$ is
equipped with an inductive limit topology; its conjugate $\bar{K}$ is a
completion of $K$ with respect to a topology given by certain explicitly
written seminorms. We construct and study a Gaussian measure, a Fourier
transform, a fractional differentiation operator and a cadlag Markov process on
$\bar{K}$. If we deal with Galois extensions then all these objects are
Galois-invariant.

ank@ank.kiev.ua

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1084. FRACTIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OPERATOR OVER AN INFINITE EXTENSION OF A LOCAL FIELD

Anatoly N. Kochubei 

  We study a fractional differentiation operator for functions on the conjugate
space to an infinite extension of a local field of zero characteristic which is
a union of an increasing sequence of finite extensions. In particular, a
representation in the form of a hypersingular integral operator is obtained. It
is also shown that the corresponding diffusion measure is not absolutely
continuous with respect to the Gaussian measure.

ank@ank.kiev.ua

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1085. FINITE DIMENSIONAL APPROXIMATIONS TO WIENER MEASURE AND PATH INTEGRAL FORMULAS ON MANIFOLDS

Lars Andersson, Bruce K. Driver 

  Certain natural geometric approximation schemes are developed for Wiener
measure on a compact Riemannian manifold. These approximations closely mimic
the informal path integral formulas used in the physics literature for
representing the heat semi-group on Riemannian manifolds. The path space is
approximated by finite dimensional manifolds consisting of piecewise geodesic
paths adapted to partitions $P$ of $[0,1]$. The finite dimensional manifolds of
piecewise geodesics carry both an $H^{1}$ and a $L^{2}$ type Riemannian
structures $G^i_P$. It is proved that as the mesh of the partition tends to
$0$,
  $$ 1/Z_P^i e^{- 1/2 E(\sigma)} Vol_{G^i_P}(\sigma) \to
\rho_i(\sigma)\nu(\sigma) $$
  where $E(\sigma )$ is the energy of the piecewise geodesic path $\sigma$, and
for $i=0$ and $1$, $Z_P^i$ is a ``normalization'' constant, $Vol_{G^i_P}$ is
the Riemannian volume form relative $G^i_P$, and $\nu$ is Wiener measure on
paths on $M$. Here $\rho_1 = 1$ and
  $$ \rho_0 (\sigma) = \exp( -1/6 \int_0^1 Scal(\sigma(s))ds ) $$
  where $Scal$ is the scalar curvature of $M$. These results are also shown to
imply the well know integration by parts formula for the Wiener measure.

larsa@math.kth.se

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1086. NON-GAUSSIAN SURFACE PINNED BY A WEAK POTENTIAL

J.-D. Deuschel and Y. Velenik

  We consider a model of a two-dimensional interface of the SOS type, with
finite-range, even, strictly convex, twice continuously differentiable
interactions. We prove that, under an arbitrarily weak potential favouring
zero-height, the surface has finite mean square heights. We consider the cases
of both square well and $\delta$ potentials. These results extend previous
results for the case of nearest-neighbours Gaussian interactions in \cite{DMRR}
and \cite{BB}. We also obtain estimates on the tail of the height distribution
implying, for example, existence of exponential moments. In the case of the
$\delta$ potential, we prove a spectral gap estimate for linear functionals. We
finally prove exponential decay of the two-point function (1) for strong
$\delta$-pinning and the above interactions, and (2) for arbitrarily weak
$\delta$-pinning, but with finite-range Gaussian interactions.

velenik@sidpsg.epfl.ch

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1087. A NOTE ON THE DECAY OF CORRELATIONS UNDER $\DELTA$-PINNING

D.Ioffe and Y.Velenik

  We prove that for a class of massless $\nabla\phi$ interface models on
$\Ztwo$ an introduction of an arbitrary small pinning self-potential leads to
exponential decay of correlation, or, in other words, to creation of mass.

velenik@sidpsg.epfl.ch

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1088. THE REPEATED SOLICITATION MODEL

R. W. R. Darling

  This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of what we call the "repeated
solicitation model". To give a specific context, suppose B is a direct
marketing company with a list of S sales prospects. At epoch 1, B sends a
solicitation to every prospect on the list, and elicits X(1) replies. The
company deletes the respondents from the list, and at epoch 2 sends a
solicitation to the other prospects, of whom X(2) respond, and so on. This
continues until an epoch n such that X(n) = 0, which we call epoch T, and then
B makes no further solicitations. We seek - The probability distribution of T;
- The distribution of the total number of respondents; - The expected total
number of solicitations. All three quantities are explicitly computed, assuming
that (a) prospects' response times are independent, and (b) S is Poisson
distributed.

rwrd@afterlife.ncsc.mil

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1089. UNREAL PROBABILITIES: PARTIAL TRUTH WITH CLIFFORD NUMBERS

Carlos C. Rodriguez 

  This paper introduces and studies the basic properties of Clifford algebra
valued conditional measures.

cr569@csc.albany.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1090. CONTINUITY PROPERTIES OF SCHR\"ODINGER SEMIGROUPS WITH MAGNETIC FIELDS

Kurt Broderix, Dirk Hundertmark, Hajo Leschke

  The objects of the present study are one-parameter semigroups generated by
Schr\"odinger operators with fairly general electromagnetic potentials. More
precisely, we allow scalar potentials from the Kato class and impose on the
vector potentials only local Kato-like conditions. The configuration space is
supposed to be an arbitrary open subset of multi-dimensional Euclidean space;
in case that it is a proper subset, the Schr\"odinger operator is rendered
symmetric by imposing Dirichlet boundary conditions. We discuss the continuity
of the image functions of the semigroup and show local-norm-continuity of the
semigroup in the potentials. Finally, we prove that the semigroup has a
continuous integral kernel given by a Brownian-bridge expectation. Altogether,
the article is meant to extend some of the results in B. Simon's landmark paper
(Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. (N.S.) {\bf 7}, 447-526 (1982)) to non-zero vector
potentials and more general configuration spaces.

broderix@theorie.physik.uni-goettingen.de

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1091. PROBABILITY AND ENTROPY IN QUANTUM THEORY

Ariel Caticha

  Entropic arguments are shown to play a central role in the foundations of
quantum theory. We prove that probabilities are given by the modulus squared of
wave functions, and that the time evolution of states is linear and also
unitary.

ariel@cnsvax.albany.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1092. PARKING CARS WITH SPIN BUT NO LENGTH

Yoshiaki Itoh and Larry Shepp

The car parking problem is a one-dimensional model of random packing.
Cars arrive to park on a block of length $x$, sequentially. Each car has,
independently, spin up or spin down, w.p. $0 < p \le 1$, for spin up, and
$q = 1-p$, for spin down, respectively. Each car tries to park at a uniformly
distributed random point $t \in [0,x]$. If $t$ is within distance 1 of the
location of a previously parked car of the {\it same} spin, or within distance
 $a$ of the location of a previously parked car of the opposite spin then the
new car leaves without parking and the next car arrives, until saturation,
when no more cars can park on $[0,x]$. We study the problem analytically
as well as  numerically.  The expected number of up spins  $c(p,a)$ per unit
length for sufficiently large $x$ is neither monotonic in $p$ for fixed $a$,
nor is it monotone in $a$ for fixed $p$, in general.  An intuitive explanation
is given for this non-monotonicity.

itoh@ism.ac.jp   shepp@stat.rutgers.edu

1093. PATHWISE UNIQUENESS FOR REFLECTING BROWNIAN MOTION IN EUCLIDEAN DOMAINS

Richard F. Bass and Elton P. Hsu

For bounded $C^{1,\alpha}$ domains in $R^d$ we show pathwise
uniqueness for the Skorokhod equation
$$dX_t=dW_t+(1/2)\nu(X_t) dL_t,$$
where $\nu$ is the inward pointing normal vector,
$L_t$ is a continuous, nondecreasing process that increases 
only when $X_t$ is on the boundary, and $W_t$ is a standard
$d$-dimensional Brownian motion. Our method is to prove
strong existence and weak uniqueness and then to show that
those together imply pathwise uniqueness.

bass@math.uconn.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1094. NUMERICAL CALCULATION OF STABLE DENSITIES AND DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

John Nolan

Computational formulas are given for stable densities and
distribution functions in Zolotarev's (M) parameterization.
These formulas are used in a software package called
STABLE the calculate general stable densities, distribution
functions, and quantiles. 

The original paper appeared in Comm. in Stat, Stochastic
Models, vol. 13, 759-774 (1997).
The new version of STABLE includes a fast, precomputed
cubic spline approximation to stable densities and a
routine for computing maximum likelihood estimators
of all four stable parameters.  A Windows 95 version of
the program can be downloaded from the website below.

jpnolan@american.edu

  • To see a preprint or other information provided by the author click here.

1095. MODELLING ENVIROMENTAL AND GENETIC EFFECTS: A RANDOM COEFFICIENT REGRESSION APPROACH

Nesan  Chelliah

In this paper  a  random coefficient  regression model has been used  
to model quantitative traits in pedigree analysis. 
The genetic and the environmental effects has been taken into account. 
We review a new estimator for estimating the variance components 
and derived the distribution of the pedigree statistics used in 
testing for outlying observations.

N.Chelliah@mailbox.gu.edu.au

1096. FRACTIONAL DERIVATIVES, NON-SYMMETRIC AND TIME-DEPENDENT DIRICHLET FORMS, AND THE DRIFT FORM

Niels Jacob and Rene L. Schilling

Using fractional derivatives we show that the drift form
$\int_{-\infty}^\infty u(x) \, {dv(x) \over dx}\,dx$ can be
approximated by non-symmetric Dirichlet forms. A similar
result holds for the drift form in higher dimensions and
with variable coefficients, if the coefficient functions
satisfy certain regularity and commutator conditions. Since
time-dependent Dirichlet forms (in the sense of Y. Oshima)
can be interpreted as sums of a drift form (in $\tau$-direction)
and a mixture of $\tau$-parametrized Dirichlet forms over
$\mathbb{R}^n$, our results show that time-dependent Dirichlet
forms arise as limits of ordinary non-symmetric Dirichlet
forms in $\mathbb{R}\times\mathbb{R}^n$-space. An abstract
result on fractional powers of Markov generators allows to
extend this observation to generalized Dirichlet forms.
Another consequence is that the bilinear form induced by
an arbitrary Levy process is the limit of non-symmetric
Dirichlet forms.

jacob@informatik.unibw-muenchen.de  rls@maths.ntu.ac.uk

stefano . iacus at unimi . it