Probability Abstracts 85

This document contains abstracts 3072-3204. They have been mailed on March 1, 2005.

3074. Asymptotic expansions for infinite weighted convolutions of heavy tail distributions and applications

Author(s): Ph. Barbe and W.P. McCormick (CNRS and University of Georgia)

Abstract: We establish some asymptotic expansions for infinite weighted convolution of distributions having regular varying tails. Various applications to statistics and probability are developed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0412537
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0412537 (alternate)

3075. Stability Properties of Constrained Jump-Diffusion Processes

Author(s): Rami Atar and Amarjit Budhiraja

Abstract: We consider a class of jump-diffusion processes, constrained to a polyhedral cone $G\subset\R^n$, where the constraint vector field is constant on each face of the boundary. The constraining mechanism corrects for ``attempts'' of the process to jump outside the domain. Under Lipschitz continuity of the Skorohod map \Gamma, it is known that there is a cone \mathcalC such that the image \Gamma\phi of a deterministic linear trajectory \phi remains bounded if and only if \dot\phi\in\mathcalC. Denoting the generator of a corresponding unconstrained jump-diffusion by \cll, we show that a key condition for the process to admit an invariant probability measure is that for x\in G, \cll \id(x) belongs to a compact subset of \mathcalC^o.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501014
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501014 (alternate)

3076. Synchronous couplings of reflected Brownian motions in smooth domains

Author(s): Krzysztof Burdzy and Zhen-Qing Chen and Peter Jones

Abstract: For every bounded planar domain $D$ with a smooth boundary, we define a `Lyapunov exponent' $\Lambda(D)$ using a fairly explicit formula. We consider two reflected Brownian motions in $D$, driven by the same Brownian motion (i.e., a `synchronous coupling'). If $\Lambda(D)>0$ then the distance between the two Brownian particles goes to 0 exponentially fast with rate $\Lambda (D)/(2|D|)$ as time goes to infinity. The exponent $\Lambda(D)$ is strictly positive if the domain has at most one hole. It is an open problem whether there exists a domain with $\Lambda(D)<0$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501486
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501486 (alternate)

3077. Mean-field driven first-order phase transitions in systems with long-range interactions

Author(s): Marek Biskup and Lincoln Chayes and Nicholas Crawford

Abstract: We consider a class of spin systems on $\Z^d$ with vector valued spins $(S_x)$ that interact via the pair-potentials $J_{x,y}S_x\cdot S_y$. The interactions are generally spread-out in the sense that the $J_{x,y}$'s exhibit either exponential or power-law fall-off. Under the technical condition of reflection positivity and for sufficiently spread out interactions, we prove that the model exhibits a first-order phase transition whenever the associated mean-field theory signals such a transition. As a consequence, e.g., in dimensions $d\ge3$, we can finally provide examples of the 3-state Potts model with spread-out, exponentially decaying interactions, which undergoes a first-order phase transition as the temperature varies. Similar transitions are established in dimensions $d=1,2$ for power-law decaying interactions and in high dimensions for next-nearest neighbor couplings. In addition, we also investigate the limit of infinitely spread-out interactions. Specifically, we show that once the mean-field theory is in a unique "state," then in any sequence of translation-invariant Gibbs states various observables converge to their mean-field values and the states themselves converge to product measure.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0501067
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0501067 (alternate)

3078. Goldbug Variations

Author(s): Michael Kleber

Abstract: This "Mathematical Entertainments" column from the Intelligencer is an exposition of current investigations, rooted in recent work of Jim Propp, into "quasirandom" analogues of random walk and random aggregation processes. Featured are the "Goldbugs" and the "Rotor-router". These are deterministic processes which simulate the random ones, for example having the same limiting states, but with faster convergence. The paper includes three large illustrations, which appear twice in the submission, as both raster image (.png) and postscript (.eps) files. The latter are much larger but needed for latex inclusion; the former are smaller, used by pdflatex, and better for pixel-level viewing.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501497
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0501497 (alternate)

3079. Identities in law between quadratic functionals of bivariate Gaussian processes, through Fubini theorems and symmetric projections

Author(s): Giovanni Peccati (LSTA) and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: We present three new identities in law for quadratic functionals of conditioned bivariate Gaussian processes. In particular, our results provide a two-parameter generalization of a celebrated identity in law, involving the path variance of a Brownian bridge, due to Watson (1961). The proof is based on ideas from a recent note by J. R. Pycke (2005) and on the stochastic Fubini theorem for general Gaussian measures proved in Deheuvels et al. (2004).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501506
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501506 (alternate)

3080. The mean square of weighted multiplicities function

Author(s): Lukianov Vladimir

Abstract: We define a weighted multiplicity function for closed geodesics of given length on a finite area Riemann surface. These weighted multiplicities appear naturally in the Selberg trace formula, and in particular their mean square plays an important role in the study of statistics of the eigenvalues of the Laplacian on the surface. In the case of the modular domain, E. Bogomolny, F. Leyvraz and C. Schmit gave a formula for the mean square, which was rigorously proved by M. Peter. In this paper we calculate the mean square of weighted multiplicities for some surfaces associated to congruence subgroups of the unit group of a rational quaternion algebra, in particular for congruence subgroups of the modular group. Remarkably, the result turns out to be a rational multiple of the mean square for the modular domain.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501519
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0501519 (alternate)

3081. Critical percolation on certain non-unimodular graphs

Author(s): Yuval Peres and Gabor Pete and Ariel Scolnicov

Abstract: An important conjecture in percolation theory is that almost surely no infinite cluster exists in critical percolation on any transitive graph for which the critical probability is less than 1. Earlier work has established this for the amenable cases Z^2 and Z^d for large d, as well as for all non-amenable graphs with unimodular automorphism groups. We show that the conjecture holds for several classes of non-amenable graphs with non-unimodular automorphism groups: for decorated trees, for the non-unimodular Diestel-Leader graphs, and for direct products of these graphs with an arbitrary transitive graph. We also show that, in any of these graphs, the connection probability between two vertices decay exponentially in their distance. Finally, we prove that critical percolation on the positive part of the lamplighter group has no infinite clusters.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501532
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501532 (alternate)

3082. Shortest Spanning Trees and a Counterexample for Random Walks in Random Environments

Author(s): Maury Bramson and Ofer Zeitouni and Martin P. W. Zerner

Abstract: We construct forests spanning $\Z^d, d\geq 2,$ that are stationary and directed, and whose trees are infinite but are as short as possible. For $d\geq 3$, two independent copies of such forests, pointing into opposite directions, can be pruned so as to become disjoint. From this, we construct in $d\geq 3$ a stationary, polynomially mixing and uniformly elliptic environment of nearest-neighbor transition probabilities on $\Z^d$, for which the corresponding random walk (RWRE) disobeys a certain zero-one law for directional transience.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501533
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501533 (alternate)

3083. Singular Control with State Constraints on Unbounded Domain

Author(s): Rami Atar and Amarjit Budhiraja

Abstract: We study a class of stochastic control problems where a cost of the form \E\int_{[0,\infty)}e^{-\beta s}[\ell(X_s)ds+h(Y^\circ_s)d|Y|_s] is to be minimized over control processes Y whose increments take values in a cone \YY of \R^p, keeping the state process X=x+B+GY in a cone \bS of \R^k, k\le p. Here, x\in\bS, B is a Brownian motion with drift b and covariance \Sigma, G is a fixed matrix, and Y^\circ is the Radon-Nikodym derivative dY/d|Y|. Let \calL=-(1/2)\trace(\Sig D^2)-b\cd D where D denotes the gradient. Solutions to the corresponding dynamic programming PDE [(\calL+\beta) f-\ell] \vee\sup_{y\in\YY:|Gy|=1}[-Gy\cd Df - h(y)]=0, on \bS^o are considered with a polynomial growth condition and are required to be supersolution up to the boundary (corresponding to a ``state constraint'' boundary condition on \pl\XX). Under suitable conditions on the problem data, including continuity and nonnegativity of \ell and h, and polynomial growth of \ell, our main result is the unique viscosity-sense solvability of the PDE by the control problem's value function in appropriate classes of functions. In some cases where uniqueness generally fails to hold in the class of functions that grow at most polynomially (e.g., when h=0), our methods provide uniqueness within the class of functions that, in addition, have compact level sets. The results are new even in the following special cases: (1) The one-dimensional case k=p=1, \bS=\YY=\R_+; (2) The first order case \Sigma=0; (3) The case where \ell and h are linear. The proofs combine probabilistic arguments and viscosity solution methods. Our framework covers a wide range of diffusion control problems that arise from queueing networks in heavy traffic.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501016
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501016 (alternate)

3084. On L\'{e}vy processes conditioned to stay positive

Author(s): Lo\"{i}c Chaumont (LPMA) and Ron A. Doney

Abstract: We construct the law of L\'{e}vy processes conditioned to stay positive under general hypotheses. We obtain a Williams type path decomposition at the minimum of these processes. This result is then applied to prove the weak convergence of the law of L\'{e}vy processes conditioned to stay positive as their initial state tends to 0. We describe an absolute continuity relationship between the limit law and the measure of the excursions away from 0 of the underlying L\'{e}vy process reflected at its minimum. Then, when the L\'{e}vy process creeps upwards, we study the lower tail at 0 of the law of the height this excursion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502012
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502012 (alternate)

3085. The maximum entropy state

Author(s): Keye Martin

Abstract: We give an algorithm for calculating the maximum entropy state as the least fixed point of a Scott continuous mapping on the domain of classical states in their Bayesian order.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502024
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502024 (alternate)

3086. Proof of the local REM conjecture for number partitioning

Author(s): Christian Borgs and Jennifer Chayes and Stephan Mertens and Chandra Nair

Abstract: The number partitioning problem is a classic problem of combinatorial optimization in which a set of $n$ numbers is partitioned into two subsets such that the sum of the numbers in one subset is as close as possible to the sum of the numbers in the other set. When the $n$ numbers are i.i.d. variables drawn from some distribution, the partitioning problem turns out to be equivalent to a mean-field antiferromagnetic Ising spin glass. In the spin glass representation, it is natural to define energies -- corresponding to the costs of the partitions, and overlaps -- corresponding to the correlations between partitions. Although the energy levels of this model are {\em a priori} highly correlated, a surprising recent conjecture asserts that the energy spectrum of number partitioning is locally that of a random energy model (REM): the spacings between nearby energy levels are uncorrelated. In other words, the properly scaled energies converge to a Poisson process. The conjecture also asserts that the corresponding spin configurations are uncorrelated, indicating vanishing overlaps in the spin glass representation. In this paper, we prove these two claims, collectively known as the local REM conjecture.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0501760
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0501760 (alternate)

3087. A Sharp Inequality for Conditional Distribution of the First Exit Time of Brownian Motion

Author(s): Majid Hosseini

Abstract: Let $U$ be a domain, convex in $x$ and symmetric about the y-axis, which is contained in a centered and oriented rectangle $R$. \linebreak If $\tau_A$ is the first exit time of Brownian motion from $A$ and $A^+=A\cap \{(x,y):x>0\}$, it is proved that $P^z(\tau_{U^+}>s\mid \tau_{R^+}>t)\leq P^z(\tau_{U}>s\mid \tau_{R}>t)$ for every $s,t>0$ and every $z\in U^+$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502057
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502057 (alternate)

3088. On Positive Recurrence of Constrained Diffusion Processes

Author(s): Rami Atar and Amarjit Budhiraja and P. Dupuis

Abstract: Let G \subset \R^k be a convex polyhedral cone with vertex at the origin given as the intersection of half spaces {G_i, i= 1, ..., N}, where n_i and d_i denote the inward normal and direction of constraint associated with G_i, respectively. Stability properties of a class of diffusion processes, constrained to take values in G, are studied under the assumption that the Skorokhod problem defined by the data {(n_i, d_i), i = 1, ..., N} is well posed and the Skorokhod map is Lipschitz continuous. Explicit conditions on the drift coefficient, b(\cdot), of the diffusion process are given under which the constrained process is positive recurrent and has a unique invariant measure. Define \C \Df{- \sum_{i=1}^N \alpha_i d_i; \alpha_i \ge 0, i \in \{1, ..., N}}. Then the key condition for stability is that there exists \delta \in (0, \infty) and a bounded subset A of G such that for all x \in G\backslash A, b(x) \in \C and \dist(b(x), \partial \C) \ge \delta, where \partial \C denotes the boundary of \C.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501018
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501018 (alternate)

3089. On large deviations in the averaging principle for SDE's with a ``full dependence'', correction

Author(s): Alexander Yu. Veretennikov

Abstract: We establish the large deviation principle for stochastic differential equations with averaging in the case when all coefficients of the fast component depend on the slow one, including diffusion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502098
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502098 (alternate)

3090. Nonparametric regression estimation for random fields in a fixed-design

Author(s): Mohamed El Machkouri (LMRS)

Abstract: We investigate the nonparametric estimation for regression in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. Sufficient conditions for kernel estimators to converge uniformly are obtained. These estimators can attain the optimal rates of uniform convergence and the results apply to a large class of random fields which contains martingale-difference random fields and mixing random fields.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502091
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0502091 (alternate)

3091. On the asymptotic behavior of some Algorithms

Author(s): Philippe Robert (RAP UR-R)

Abstract: A simple approach is presented to study the asymptotic behavior of some algorithms with an underlying tree structure. It is shown that some asymptotic oscillating behaviors can be precisely analyzed without resorting to complex analysis techniques as it is usually done in this context. A new explicit representation of periodic functions involved is obtained at the same time.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0502014
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.DS/0502014 (alternate)

3092. On large deviations in the averaging principle for SDE's with a ``full dependence'', correction

Author(s): Alexander Yu. Veretennikov

Abstract: We establish the large deviation principle for stochastic differential equations with averaging in the case when all coefficients of the fast component depend on the slow one, including diffusion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502098
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502098 (alternate)

3093. Nonparametric regression estimation for random fields in a fixed-design

Author(s): Mohamed El Machkouri (LMRS)

Abstract: We investigate the nonparametric estimation for regression in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. Sufficient conditions for kernel estimators to converge uniformly are obtained. These estimators can attain the optimal rates of uniform convergence and the results apply to a large class of random fields which contains martingale-difference random fields and mixing random fields.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502091
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0502091 (alternate)

3094. On the asymptotic behavior of some Algorithms

Author(s): Philippe Robert (RAP UR-R)

Abstract: A simple approach is presented to study the asymptotic behavior of some algorithms with an underlying tree structure. It is shown that some asymptotic oscillating behaviors can be precisely analyzed without resorting to complex analysis techniques as it is usually done in this context. A new explicit representation of periodic functions involved is obtained at the same time.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0502014
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.DS/0502014 (alternate)

3095. Properties of the wealth process in a market microstructure model

Author(s): Ted Theodosopoulos and Ming Yuen

Abstract: In this short paper we define the wealth process in a spin model for market microstructure, for individual agents and in aggregate. The agents in our model try to balance their desire to belong to the local majority (herding behavior), defined over random network neighborhoods, and the occasional advantage of belonging to the global minority (contrarian trading). We arrive at a classification of the martingale properties of this wealth process and use it to determine the strategic stability of the agents' interactions. Our goal is to add a behavioral interpretation to this stochastic agent-based model for market fluctuations.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502105
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502105 (alternate)

3096. Different Aspects of a Model for Random Fragmentation Processes

Author(s): Jean Bertoin (PMA)

Abstract: This text surveys different probabilistic aspects of a model which is used to describe the evolution of an object that falls apart randomly as time passes. Each point of view yields useful techniques to establish properties of such random fragmentation processes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502132
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502132 (alternate)

3097. Invariance principles for standard-normalized and self-normalized random fields

Author(s): Mohamed El Machkouri (LMRS) and Lahcen Ouchti (LMRS)

Abstract: We investigate the invariance principle for set-indexed partial sums of a stationary field $(X\_{k})\_{k\in\mathbb{Z}^{d}}$ of martingale-difference or independent random variables under standard-normalization or self-normalization respectively.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502135
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502135 (alternate)

3098. Pinning of polymers and interfaces by random potentials

Author(s): Kenneth S. Alexander and Vladas Sidoravicius

Abstract: We consider a polymer, with monomer locations modeled by the trajectory of a Markov chain, in the presence of a potential that interacts with the polymer when it visits a particular site 0. Disorder is introduced by, for example, having the interaction vary from one monomer to another, as a constant $u$ plus i.i.d. mean-0 randomness. There is a critical value of $u$ above which the polymer is pinned, placing a positive fraction of its monomers at 0 with high probability. This critical point may differ for the quenched, annealed and deterministic cases. We show that self-averaging occurs, we evaluate the critical point for a deterministic interaction and establish our main result that the critical point in the quenched case is strictly smaller. We show that for every fixed $u \in \mathbb{R}$, pinning occurs at sufficiently low temperatures. If the excursion length distribution has polynomial tails and the interaction does not have a finite exponential moment, then pinning occurs for all $u \in \mathbb{R}$ at arbitrary temperature. Our results apply to other mathematically similar situations as well, such as a directed polymer that interacts with a random potential located in a one-dimensional defect, or an interface in two dimensions interacting with a random potential along a wall.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501028
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501028 (alternate)

3099. Taking Bigger Metropolis Steps by Dragging Fast Variables

Author(s): Radford M. Neal

Abstract: I show how Markov chain sampling with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm can be modified so as to take bigger steps when the distribution being sampled from has the characteristic that its density can be quickly recomputed for a new point if this point differs from a previous point only with respect to a subset of 'fast' variables. I show empirically that when using this method, the efficiency of sampling for the remaining 'slow' variables can approach what would be possible using Metropolis updates based on the marginal distribution for the slow variables.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502099
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0502099 (alternate)

3100. A two armed bandit type problem revisited

Author(s): Gilles Pag\`{e}s (PMA)

Abstract: In a recent paper, M. Bena\"{i}m and G. Ben Arous solve a multi-armed bandit problem arising in the theory of learning in games. We propose an short elementary proof of this result based on a variant of the Kronecker Lemma.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502182
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502182 (alternate)

3101. On the Hedging of American Options in Discrete Time Markets with Proportional Transaction Costs

Author(s): Bruno Bouchard (PMA) and Emmanuel Temam (PMA)

Abstract: In this note, we consider a general discrete time financial market with proportional transaction costs as in Kabanov and Stricker (2001), Kabanov et al. (2002), Kabanov et al. (2003) and Schachermayer (2004). We provide a dual formulation for the set of initial endowments which allow to super-hedge some American claim. We show that this extends the result of Chalasani and Jha (2001) which was obtained in a model with constant transaction costs and risky assets which evolve on a finite dimensional tree. We also provide fairly general conditions under which the expected formulation in terms of stopping times does not work.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502189
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502189 (alternate)

3102. On maxima and ladder processes for a dense class of Levy processes

Author(s): M. R. Pistorius

Abstract: Consider the problem to explicitly calculate the law of the first passage time T(a) of a general Levy process Z above a positive level a. In this paper it is shown that the law of T(a) can be approximated arbitrarily closely by the laws of T^n(a), the corresponding first passages time for X^n, where (X^n)_n is a sequence of Levy processes whose positive jumps follow a phase-type distribution. Subsequently, explicit expressions are derived for the laws of T^n(a) and the upward ladder process of X^n. The derivation is based on an embedding of X^n into a class of Markov additive processes and on the solution of the fundamental (matrix) Wiener-Hopf factorisation for this class. This Wiener-Hopf factorisation can be computed explicitly by solving iteratively a certain fixed point equation. It is shown that, typically, this iteration converges geometrically fast.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502192
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502192 (alternate)

3103. Two-dimensional wetting with binary disorder: a numerical study of the loop statistics

Author(s): Thomas Garel and Cecile Monthus

Abstract: We numerically study the wetting (adsorption) transition of a polymer chain on a disordered substrate in 1+1 dimension.Following the Poland-Scheraga model of DNA denaturation, we use a Fixman-Freire scheme for the entropy of loops. This allows us to consider chain lengths of order $N \sim 10^5 $ to $10^6$, with $10^4$ disorder realizations. Our study is based on the statistics of loops between two contacts with the substrate, from which we define Binder-like parameters: their crossings for various sizes $N$ allow a precise determination of the critical temperature, and their finite size properties yields a crossover exponent $\phi=1/(2-\alpha) \simeq 0.5$.We then analyse at criticality the distribution of loop length $l$ in both regimes $l \sim O(N)$ and $1 \ll l \ll N$, as well as the finite-size properties of the contact density and energy. Our conclusion is that the critical exponents for the thermodynamics are the same as those of the pure case, except for strong logarithmic corrections to scaling. The presence of these logarithmic corrections in the thermodynamics is related to a disorder-dependent logarithmic singularity that appears in the critical loop distribution in the rescaled variable $\lambda=l/N$ as $\lambda \to 1$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0502195
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0502195 (alternate)

3104. Degree Distribution of Competition-Induced Preferential Attachment Graphs

Author(s): N. Berger and C. Borgs and J. T. Chayes and R. M. D'Souza and R. D. Kleinberg

Abstract: We introduce a family of one-dimensional geometric growth models, constructed iteratively by locally optimizing the tradeoffs between two competing metrics, and show that this family is equivalent to a family of preferential attachment random graph models with upper cutoffs. This is the first explanation of how preferential attachment can arise from a more basic underlying mechanism of local competition. We rigorously determine the degree distribution for the family of random graph models, showing that it obeys a power law up to a finite threshold and decays exponentially above this threshold. We also rigorously analyze a generalized version of our graph process, with two natural parameters, one corresponding to the cutoff and the other a ``fertility'' parameter. We prove that the general model has a power-law degree distribution up to a cutoff, and establish monotonicity of the power as a function of the two parameters. Limiting cases of the general model include the standard preferential attachment model without cutoff and the uniform attachment model.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0502205
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0502205 (alternate)

3105. On nonexistence of non-constant volatility in the Black-Scholes formula

Author(s): K. Hamza and F.C. Klebaner

Abstract: We prove that if the Black-Scholes formula holds with the spot volatility for call options with all strikes, then the volatility parameter is constant. The proof relies some result on semimartingales (Theorem 2) of independent interest.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502201
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502201 (alternate)

3106. Martingale structure of Skorohod integral processes

Author(s): Giovanni Peccati (LSTA) and Mich\`{e}le Thieullen (PMA) and Ciprian A. Tudor (SAMOS)

Abstract: Let the process Y(t) be a Skorohod integral process with respect to Brownian motion. We use a recent result by Tudor (2004), to prove that Y(t) can be represented as the limit of linear combinations of processes that are products of forward and backward Brownian martingales. Such a result is a further step towards the connection between the theory of continuous-time (semi)martingales, and that of anticipating stochastic integration. We establish an explicit link between our results and the classic characterization, due to Duc and Nualart (1990), of the chaotic decomposition of Skorohod integral processes. We also explore the case of Skorohod integral processes that are time-reversed Brownian martingales, and provide an "anticipating" counterpart to the classic Optional Sampling Theorem for It\^{o} stochastic integrals.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502208
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502208 (alternate)

3107. Asymptotics in Knuth's parking problem for caravans

Author(s): Jean Bertoin (PMA) and Gr\'{e}gory Marc Miermont (LM-Orsay)

Abstract: We consider a generalized version of Knuth's parking problem, in which caravans consisting of a number of cars arrive at random on the unit circle. Then each car turns clockwise until it finds a free space to park. Extending a recent work by Chassaing and Louchard, we relate the asymptotics for the sizes of blocks formed by occupied spots with the dynamics of the additive coalescent. According to the behavior of the caravan's size tail distribution, several qualitatively different versions of eternal additive coalescent are involved.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502220
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502220 (alternate)

3108. An escape time criterion for queueing networks: Asymptotic risk-sensitive control via differential games

Author(s): Rami Atar and Paul Dupuis and Adam Shwartz

Abstract: We consider the problem of risk-sensitive control of a stochastic network. In controlling such a network, an escape time criterion can be useful if one wishes to regulate the occurrence of large buffers and buffer overflow. In this paper a risk-sensitive escape time criterion is formulated, which in comparison to the ordinary escape time criteria penalizes exits which occur on short time intervals more heavily. The properties of the risk-sensitive problem are studied in the large buffer limit, and related to the value of a deterministic differential game with constrained dynamics. We prove that the game has value, and that the value is the (viscosity) solution of a PDE. For a simple network, the value is computed, demonstrating the applicability of the approach.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501031
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501031 (alternate)

3109. Absolute continuity for random iterated function systems with overlaps

Author(s): Yuval Peres and K\'aroly Simon and Boris Solomyak

Abstract: We consider linear iterated function systems with a random multiplicative error on the real line. Our system is $\{x\mapsto d_i + \lambda_i Y x\}_{i=1}^m$, where $d_i\in \R$ and $\lambda_i>0$ are fixed and $Y> 0$ is a random variable with an absolutely continuous distribution. The iterated maps are applied randomly according to a stationary ergodic process, with the sequence of i.i.d. errors $y_1,y_2,...$, distributed as $Y$, independent of everything else. Let $h$ be the entropy of the process, and let $\chi = E[\log(\lambda Y)]$ be the Lyapunov exponent. Assuming that $\chi < 0$, we obtain a family of conditional measures $\nu_y$ on the line, parametrized by $y = (y_1,y_2,...)$, the sequence of errors. Our main result is that if $h > |\chi|$, then $\nu_y$ is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure for a.e. $y$. We also prove that if $h < |\chi|$, then the measure $\nu_y$ is singular and has dimension $h/|\chi|$ for a.e. $y$. These results are applied to a randomly perturbed IFS suggested by Y. Sinai, and to a class of random sets considered by R. Arratia, motivated by probabilistic number theory.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502200
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0502200 (alternate)

3110. Subtree prune and re-graft: a reversible real tree valued Markov process

Author(s): Steven N. Evans and Anita Winter

Abstract: We use Dirichlet form methods to construct and analyze a reversible Markov process, the stationary distribution of which is the Brownian continuum random tree. This process is inspired by the subtree prune and re-graft (SPR) Markov chains that appear in phylogenetic analysis. A key technical ingredient in this work is the use of a novel Gromov--Hausdorff type distance to metrize the space whose elements are compact real trees equipped with a probability measure. Also, the investigation of the Dirichlet form hinges on a new path decomposition of the Brownian excursion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502226
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502226 (alternate)

3111. Individual displacements in hashing with coalesced chains

Author(s): Svante Janson

Abstract: We study the asymptotic distribution of the displacements in hashing with coalesced chains, for both late-insertion and early-insertion. Asymptotic formulas for means and variances follow. The method uses Poissonization and some stochastic calculus.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502232
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502232 (alternate)

3112. Random recursive trees and the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent

Author(s): Christina Goldschmidt and James B. Martin

Abstract: We describe a representation of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent in terms of the cutting of random recursive trees. Using this representation, we prove results concerning the final collision of the coalescent restricted to [n]: we show that the distribution of the number of blocks involved in the final collision converges as n tends to infinity, and obtain a scaling law for the sizes of these blocks. We also consider the discrete-time Markov chain giving the number of blocks after each collision of the coalescent restricted to [n]; we show that the transition probabilities of the time-reversal of this Markov chain have limits as n tends to infinity. These results can be interpreted as describing a ``post-gelation'' phase of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent, in which a giant cluster containing almost all of the mass has already formed and the remaining small blocks are being absorbed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502263
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502263 (alternate)

3113. The Linking Probability of Deep Spider-Web Networks

Author(s): Nicholas Pippenger

Abstract: We consider crossbar switching networks with base $b$ (that is, constructed from $b\times b$ crossbar switches), scale $k$ (that is, with $b^k$ inputs, $b^k$ outputs and $b^k$ links between each consecutive pair of stages) and depth $l$ (that is, with $l$ stages). We assume that the crossbars are interconnected according to the spider-web pattern, whereby two diverging paths reconverge only after at least $k$ stages. We assume that each vertex is independently idle with probability $q$, the vacancy probability. We assume that $b\ge 2$ and the vacancy probability $q$ are fixed, and that $k$ and $l = ck$ tend to infinity with ratio a fixed constant $c>1$. We consider the linking probability $Q$ (the probability that there exists at least one idle path between a given idle input and a given idle output). In a previous paper it was shown that if $c\le 2$, then the linking probability $Q$ tends to 0 if $01$. This is done by using generating functions and complex-variable techniques to estimate the second moments of various random variables involved in the analysis of the networks.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502294
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502294 (alternate)

3114. Explicit solution for a network control problem in the large deviation regime

Author(s): Rami Atar and Paul Dupuis and Adam Shwartz

Abstract: We consider optimal control of a stochastic network,where service is controlled to prevent buffer overflow. We use a risk-sensitive escape time criterion, which in comparison to the ordinary escape time criteria heavily penalizes exits which occur on short time intervals. A limit as the buffer sizes tend to infinity is considered. In [2] we showed that, for a large class of networks, the limit of the normalized cost agrees with the value function of a differential game. The game's value is characterized in [2] as the unique solution to a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Partial Differential Equation (PDE). In the current paper we apply this general theory to the important case of a network of queues in tandem. Our main results are: (i) the construction of an explicit solution to the corresponding PDE, and (ii) drawing out the implications for optimal risk-sensitive and robust regulation of the network. In particular, the following general principle can be extracted. To avoid buffer overflow there is a natural competition between two tendencies. One may choose to serve a particular queue, since that will help prevent its own buffer from overflowing, or one may prefer to stop service, with the goal of preventing overflow of buffers further down the line. The solution to the PDE indicates the optimal choice between these two, specifying the parts of the state space where each queue must be served (so as not to lose optimality), and where it can idle.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501035
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501035 (alternate)

3115. Estimates on path delocalization for copolymers at selective interfaces

Author(s): Giambattista Giacomin and Fabio Lucio Toninelli

Abstract: We consider a directed random walk model of a random heterogeneous polymer in the proximity of an interface separating two selective solvents. This model exhibits a localization/delocalization transition. A positive value of the free energy corresponds to the localized regime and strong results on the polymer path behavior are known in this case. We focus on the interior of the delocalized phase, which is characterized by the free energy equal to zero, and we show in particular that in this regime there are O(log N) monomers in the unfavorable solvent (N is the length of the polymer). The previously known result was o(N). Our approach is based on concentration bounds on suitably restricted partition functions. The same idea allows also to interpolate between different types of disorder in the weak coupling limit. In this way we show the universal nature of this limit, previously considered only for binary disorder.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502304
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502304 (alternate)

3116. Some properties of the rate function of quenched large deviations for random walk in random environment

Author(s): Alexis Devulder (PMA)

Abstract: In this paper, we are interested in some questions of Greven and den Hollander about the rate function $I\_{\eta}^q$ of quenched large deviations for random walk in random environment. By studying the hitting times of RWRE, we prove that in the recurrent case, $\lim\_{\theta\to 0^+}(I\_{\eta}^q)''(\theta)=+\infty$, which gives an affirmative answer to a conjecture of Greven and den Hollander. We also establish a comparison result between the rate function of quenched large deviations for a diffusion in a drifted Brownian potential, and the rate function for a drifted Brownian motion with the same speed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502316
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502316 (alternate)

3117. An adaptive scheme for the approximation of dissipative systems

Author(s): Vincent Lemaire

Abstract: We propose a new scheme for the long time approximation of a diffusion when the drift vector field is not globally Lipschitz. Under this assumption, regular explicit Euler scheme --with constant or decreasing step-- may explode and implicit Euler scheme are CPU-time expensive. The algorithm we introduce is explicit and we prove that any weak limit of the weighted empirical measures of this scheme is a stationary distribution of the stochastic differential equation. Several examples are presented including gradient dissipative systems and Hamiltonian dissipative systems.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502317
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502317 (alternate)

3118. Limit Laws for Random Vectors with an Extreme Component

Author(s): J. Heffernan & S. Resnick

Abstract: Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation provides a rich description of extremal dependence in the case of asymptotic dependence, but fails to distinguish between exact independence and asymptotic independence. Hidden regular variation addresses this problem by requiring components of the random vector to be simultaneously large but on a smaller scale than the scale for the marginal distributions. In doing so, hidden regular variation typically restricts attention to that part of the probability space where all variables are simultaneously large. However, since under asymptotic independence the largest values do not occur in the same observation, the region where variables are simultaneously large may not be of primary interest. A different philosophy was offered in the paper of Heffernan and Tawn (2004) which allows examination of distributional tails other than the joint tail. This approach used an asymptotic argument which conditions on one component of the random vector and finds the limiting conditional distribution of the remaining components as the conditioning variable becomes large. In this paper, we provide a thorough mathematical examination of the limiting arguments building on the orientation of Heffernan and Tawn (2004). We examine the conditions required for the assumptions made by the conditioning approach to hold, and highlight similarities and differences between the new and established methods.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502324
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502324 (alternate)

3119. Strong Asymptotic Assertions for Discrete MDL in Regression and Classification

Author(s): Jan Poland and Marcus Hutter

Abstract: We study the properties of the MDL (or maximum penalized complexity) estimator for Regression and Classification, where the underlying model class is countable. We show in particular a finite bound on the Hellinger losses under the only assumption that there is a "true" model contained in the class. This implies almost sure convergence of the predictive distribution to the true one at a fast rate. It corresponds to Solomonoff's central theorem of universal induction, however with a bound that is exponentially larger.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502315
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0502315 (alternate)

3120. On the operator space UMD property for noncommutative Lp-spaces

Author(s): Magdalena Musat

Abstract: We study the operator space UMD property, introduced by Pisier in the context of noncommutative vector-valued Lp-spaces. It is unknown whether the property is independent of p in this setting. We prove that for 1

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501033
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0501033 (alternate)

3121. Optimality of Universal Bayesian Sequence Prediction for General Loss and Alphabet

Author(s): Marcus Hutter

Abstract: Various optimality properties of universal sequence predictors based on Bayes-mixtures in general, and Solomonoff's prediction scheme in particular, will be studied. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with the chain rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to belong to a countable or continuous class $\M$ one can base ones prediction on the Bayes-mixture $\xi$ defined as a $w_\nu$-weighted sum or integral of distributions $\nu\in\M$. The cumulative expected loss of the Bayes-optimal universal prediction scheme based on $\xi$ is shown to be close to the loss of the Bayes-optimal, but infeasible prediction scheme based on $\mu$. We show that the bounds are tight and that no other predictor can lead to significantly smaller bounds. Furthermore, for various performance measures, we show Pareto-optimality of $\xi$ and give an Occam's razor argument that the choice $w_\nu\sim 2^{-K(\nu)}$ for the weights is optimal, where $K(\nu)$ is the length of the shortest program describing $\nu$. The results are applied to games of chance, defined as a sequence of bets, observations, and rewards. The prediction schemes (and bounds) are compared to the popular predictors based on expert advice. Extensions to infinite alphabets, partial, delayed and probabilistic prediction, classification, and more active systems are briefly discussed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0311014
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.LG/0311014 (alternate)

3122. On the Convergence Speed of MDL Predictions for Bernoulli Sequences

Author(s): Jan Poland and Marcus Hutter

Abstract: We consider the Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence prediction. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies a `rate of convergence'. Generally, for MDL only exponential loss bounds hold, as opposed to the linear bounds for a Bayes mixture. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. The results apply to many Machine Learning tasks including classification and hypothesis testing. We provide arguments that our theorems generalize to countable classes of i.i.d. models.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0407039
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.LG/0407039 (alternate)

3123. Universal Convergence of Semimeasures on Individual Random Sequences

Author(s): Marcus Hutter and Andrej Muchnik

Abstract: Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a universal sequence predictor in case of unknown mu. Despite some nearby results and proofs in the literature, the stronger result of convergence for all (Martin-Loef) random sequences remained open. Such a convergence result would be particularly interesting and natural, since randomness can be defined in terms of M itself. We show that there are universal semimeasures M which do not converge for all random sequences, i.e. we give a partial negative answer to the open problem. We also provide a positive answer for some non-universal semimeasures. We define the incomputable measure D as a mixture over all computable measures and the enumerable semimeasure W as a mixture over all enumerable nearly-measures. We show that W converges to D and D to mu on all random sequences. The Hellinger distance measuring closeness of two distributions plays a central role.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0407057
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.LG/0407057 (alternate)

3124. Functional quantization and metric entropy for Riemann-Liouville processes

Author(s): Harald Luschgy and Gilles Pag\`{e}s (PMA)

Abstract: We derive a high-resolution formula for the $L^2$-quantization errors of Riemann-Liouville processes and the sharp Kolmogorov entropy asymptotics for related Sobolev balls. We describe a quantization procedure which leads to asymptotically optimal functional quantizers. Regular variation of the eigenvalues of the covariance operator plays a crucial role.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502375
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502375 (alternate)

3125. Self-Optimizing and Pareto-Optimal Policies in General Environments based on Bayes-Mixtures

Author(s): Marcus Hutter

Abstract: The problem of making sequential decisions in unknown probabilistic environments is studied. In cycle $t$ action $y_t$ results in perception $x_t$ and reward $r_t$, where all quantities in general may depend on the complete history. The perception $x_t$ and reward $r_t$ are sampled from the (reactive) environmental probability distribution $\mu$. This very general setting includes, but is not limited to, (partial observable, k-th order) Markov decision processes. Sequential decision theory tells us how to act in order to maximize the total expected reward, called value, if $\mu$ is known. Reinforcement learning is usually used if $\mu$ is unknown. In the Bayesian approach one defines a mixture distribution $\xi$ as a weighted sum of distributions $\nu\in\M$, where $\M$ is any class of distributions including the true environment $\mu$. We show that the Bayes-optimal policy $p^\xi$ based on the mixture $\xi$ is self-optimizing in the sense that the average value converges asymptotically for all $\mu\in\M$ to the optimal value achieved by the (infeasible) Bayes-optimal policy $p^\mu$ which knows $\mu$ in advance. We show that the necessary condition that $\M$ admits self-optimizing policies at all, is also sufficient. No other structural assumptions are made on $\M$. As an example application, we discuss ergodic Markov decision processes, which allow for self-optimizing policies. Furthermore, we show that $p^\xi$ is Pareto-optimal in the sense that there is no other policy yielding higher or equal value in {\em all} environments $\nu\in\M$ and a strictly higher value in at least one.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0204040
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.AI/0204040 (alternate)

3126. No-arbitrage in discrete-time markets with proportional transaction costs and general information structure

Author(s): Bruno Bouchard (PMA and Crest and Lfa)

Abstract: We discuss the no-arbitrage conditions in a general framework for discrete-time models of financial markets with proportional transaction costs and general information structure. We extend the results of Kabanov and al. (2002), Kabanov and al. (2003) and Schachermayer (2004) to the case where bid-ask spreads are not known with certainty. In the "no-friction" case, we retrieve the result of Kabanov and Stricker (2003).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501045
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501045 (alternate)

3127. Convergence and Error Bounds for Universal Prediction of Nonbinary Sequences

Author(s): Marcus Hutter

Abstract: Solomonoff's uncomputable universal prediction scheme $\xi$ allows to predict the next symbol $x_k$ of a sequence $x_1...x_{k-1}$ for any Turing computable, but otherwise unknown, probabilistic environment $\mu$. This scheme will be generalized to arbitrary environmental classes, which, among others, allows the construction of computable universal prediction schemes $\xi$. Convergence of $\xi$ to $\mu$ in a conditional mean squared sense and with $\mu$ probability 1 is proven. It is shown that the average number of prediction errors made by the universal $\xi$ scheme rapidly converges to those made by the best possible informed $\mu$ scheme. The schemes, theorems and proofs are given for general finite alphabet, which results in additional complications as compared to the binary case. Several extensions of the presented theory and results are outlined. They include general loss functions and bounds, games of chance, infinite alphabet, partial and delayed prediction, classification, and more active systems.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0106036
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.LG/0106036 (alternate)

3128. Convergence and Loss Bounds for Bayesian Sequence Prediction

Author(s): Marcus Hutter

Abstract: The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to belong to a class $M$ one can base ones prediction on the Bayes mix $\xi$ defined as a weighted sum of distributions $\nu\in M$. Various convergence results of the mixture posterior $\xi_t$ to the true posterior $\mu_t$ are presented. In particular a new (elementary) derivation of the convergence $\xi_t/\mu_t\to 1$ is provided, which additionally gives the rate of convergence. A general sequence predictor is allowed to choose an action $y_t$ based on $x_1...x_{t-1}$ and receives loss $\ell_{x_t y_t}$ if $x_t$ is the next symbol of the sequence. No assumptions are made on the structure of $\ell$ (apart from being bounded) and $M$. The Bayes-optimal prediction scheme $\Lambda_\xi$ based on mixture $\xi$ and the Bayes-optimal informed prediction scheme $\Lambda_\mu$ are defined and the total loss $L_\xi$ of $\Lambda_\xi$ is bounded in terms of the total loss $L_\mu$ of $\Lambda_\mu$. It is shown that $L_\xi$ is bounded for bounded $L_\mu$ and $L_\xi/L_\mu\to 1$ for $L_\mu\to \infty$. Convergence of the instantaneous losses are also proven.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0301014
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.LG/0301014 (alternate)

3129. Bayesian Treatment of Incomplete Discrete Data applied to Mutual Information and Feature Selection

Author(s): Marcus Hutter and Marco Zaffalon

Abstract: Given the joint chances of a pair of random variables one can compute quantities of interest, like the mutual information. The Bayesian treatment of unknown chances involves computing, from a second order prior distribution and the data likelihood, a posterior distribution of the chances. A common treatment of incomplete data is to assume ignorability and determine the chances by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The two different methods above are well established but typically separated. This paper joins the two approaches in the case of Dirichlet priors, and derives efficient approximations for the mean, mode and the (co)variance of the chances and the mutual information. Furthermore, we prove the unimodality of the posterior distribution, whence the important property of convergence of EM to the global maximum in the chosen framework. These results are applied to the problem of selecting features for incremental learning and naive Bayes classification. A fast filter based on the distribution of mutual information is shown to outperform the traditional filter based on empirical mutual information on a number of incomplete real data sets.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0306126
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.LG/0306126 (alternate)

3130. Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy of a generalized Markov shift

Author(s): Ivan Werner

Abstract: In this paper we calculate Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy $h_M(S)$ of the generalized Markov shift associated with a contractive Markov system (CMS) \cite{Wer1} using the coding map constructed in \cite{Wer3}. We show that \[h_M(S)=-\sum\limits_{e\in E}\int\limits_{K_{i(e)}} p_e\log p_ed\mu\] where $\mu$ is a unique invariant Borel probability measure of the CMS. I. Werner, Contractive Markov systems, J. London Math. Soc. (2005) 236-258. I. Werner, Coding map for a contractive Markov system, Math. Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc. to appear 140 (2), March 2006.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502389
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0502389 (alternate)

3131. Gaussian fluctuations for non-Hermitian random matrix ensembles

Author(s): B. Rider and Jack W. Silverstein

Abstract: Consider an ensemble of $N \times N$ non-Hermitian matrices in which all entries are independent identically distributed complex random variables of mean zero and absolute mean-square one. If the entry distributions also possess bounded densities and finite $(4+\ep)$ moments, then Z.D. Bai has shown the ensemble to satisfy the circular law: after scaling by a factor of $1/\sqrt{N}$ and letting $N \ra \infty$, the empirical measure of the eigenvalues converges weakly to the uniform measure on the unit disk in the complex plane. In this note we investigate fluctuations from the circular law in a more restrictive class of non-Hermitian matrices for which higher moments of the entries obey a growth condition. The main result is a central limit theorem for linear statistics of type $X_N(f) = \sum_{k=1}^N f(\ld_k)$ where $\lambda_1, \lambda_2, ..., \lambda_N$ denote the ensemble eigenvalues and the test function $f$ is analytic on an appropriate domain.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502400
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502400 (alternate)

3132. A repertoire for additive functionals of uniformly distributed m-ary search trees

Author(s): James Allen Fill and Nevin Kapur

Abstract: Using recent results on singularity analysis for Hadamard products of generating functions, we obtain the limiting distributions for additive functionals on $m$-ary search trees on $n$ keys with toll sequence (i) $n^\alpha$ with $\alpha \geq 0$ ($\alpha=0$ and $\alpha=1$ correspond roughly to the space requirement and total path length, respectively); (ii) $\ln \binom{n}{m-1}$, which corresponds to the so-called shape functional; and (iii) $\mathbf{1}_{n=m-1}$, which corresponds to the number of leaves.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502422
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502422 (alternate)

3133. Phase transition for parking blocks, Brownian excursion and coalescence

Author(s): Philippe Chassaing (IEC) and Guy Louchard (ULB)

Abstract: In this paper, we consider hashing with linear probing for a hashing table with m places, n items (n < m), and l = m

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501060
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501060 (alternate)

3134. High Resolution Asymptotics for the Angular Bispectrum of Spherical Random Fields

Author(s): Domenico Marinucci

Abstract: In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the angular bispectrum of spherical random fields. Here, the asymptotic theory is developed in the framework of fixed-radius fields, which are observed with increasing resolution as the sample size grows. The results we present are then exploited in a set of procedures aimed at testing non-Gaussianity; for these statistics, we are able to show convergence to functionals of standard Brownian motion under the null hypothesis. Analytic results are also presented on the behaviour of the tests in the presence of a broad class of non-Gaussian alternatives. The issue of testing for non-Gaussianity on spherical random fields has recently gained an enormous empirical importance, especially in connection with the statistical analysis of Cosmic Microwave Background radiation.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502434
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502434 (alternate)

3135. Cost-volume relationships for flows through a disordered network

Author(s): David Aldous

Abstract: In a network where the cost of flow across an edge is nonlinear in the volume of flow, and where sources and destinations are uniform, one can consider the relationship between total volume $v$ of flow through the network and the minimum cost $c = Psi(v)$ of any flow with volume $v$. Under a simple probability model (locally tree-like directed network, independent cost-volume functions or different edges) we show how to compute $\Psi(v)$ in the infinite-size limit. The argument uses a probabilistic reformulation of the cavity method from statistical physics, and is not rigorous as presented here. The methodology seems potentially useful for many problems concerning flows on this class of random networks.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0502346
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0502346 (alternate)

3136. Concerning life annuities

Author(s): Leonhard Euler

Abstract: This seems to be the first English translation of this paper from the French original, ``Sur les rentes viageres''. In the paper, Euler gives a general formula for calculating the price of a life annuity that yields a certain amount per year, assuming the annuity manager can get a 5 percent return, for people of different ages. He also gives formulas to calculate the price of annuities that only start to pay out a certain number of years after they are purchased. He gives many numerical examples, giving tables for the prices of annuities for annuitants up to 90 years old.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502421
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.HO/0502421 (alternate)

3137. Universal finitary codes with exponential tails

Author(s): Nate Harvey and Alexander E. Holroyd and Yuval Peres and Dan Romik

Abstract: In 1977, Keane and Smorodinsky showed that there exists a finitary homomorphism from any finite-alphabet Bernoulli process to any other finite-alphabet Bernoulli process of strictly lower entropy. In 1996, Serafin proved the existence of a finitary homomorphism with finite expected coding length. In this paper, we construct such a homomorphism in which the coding length has exponential tails. Our construction is source-universal, in the sense that it does not use any information on the source distribution other than the alphabet size and a bound on the entropy gap between the source and target distributions. We also indicate how our methods can be extended to prove a source-specific version of the result for Markov chains.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502484
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502484 (alternate)

3138. Conditioned Brownian trees

Author(s): Jean-Francois Le Gall (ENS Paris) and Mathilde Weill (ENS Paris)

Abstract: We consider a Brownian tree consisting of a collection of one-dimensional Brownian paths started from the origin, whose genealogical structure is given by the Continuum Random Tree (CRT). This Brownian tree may be generated from the Brownian snake driven by a normalized Brownian excursion, and thus yields a convenient representation of the so-called Integrated Super-Brownian Excursion (ISE), which can be viewed as the uniform probability measure on the tree of paths. We discuss different approaches that lead to the definition of the Brownian tree conditioned to stay on the positive half-line. We also establish a Verwaat-like theorem showing that this conditioned Brownian tree can be obtained by re-rooting the unconditioned one at the vertex corresponding to the minimal spatial position. In terms of ISE, this theorem yields the following fact: Conditioning ISE to put no mass on $]-\infty,-\epsilon[$ and letting $\epsilon$ go to 0 is equivalent to shifting the unconditioned ISE to the right so that the left-most point of its support becomes the origin. We derive a number of explicit estimates and formulas for our conditioned Brownian trees. In particular, the probability that ISE puts no mass on $]-\infty,-\epsilon[$ is shown to behave like $2\epsilon^4/21$ when $\epsilon$ goes to 0. Finally, for the conditioned Brownian tree with a fixed height $h$, we obtain a decomposition involving a spine whose distribution is absolutely continuous with respect to that of a nine-dimensional Bessel process on the time interval $[0,h]$, and Poisson processes of subtrees originating from this spine.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501066
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501066 (alternate)

3139. Strong disorder RG approach of random systems

Author(s): Ferenc Igloi and Cecile Monthus

Abstract: There is a large variety of quantum and classical systems in which the quenched disorder plays a dominant r\^ole over quantum, thermal, or stochastic fluctuations : these systems display strong spatial heterogeneities, and many averaged observables are actually governed by rare regions. A unifying approach to treat the dynamical and/or static singularities of these systems has emerged recently, following the pioneering RG idea by Ma and Dasgupta and the detailed analysis by Fisher who showed that the Ma-Dasgupta RG rules yield asymptotic exact results if the broadness of the disorder grows indefinitely at large scales. Here we report these new developments by starting with an introduction of the main ingredients of the strong disorder RG method. We describe the basic properties of infinite disorder fixed points, which are realized at critical points, and of strong disorder fixed points, which control the singular behaviors in the Griffiths-phases. We then review in detail applications of the RG method to various disordered models, either (i) quantum models, such as random spin chains, ladders and higher dimensional spin systems, or (ii) classical models, such as diffusion in a random potential, equilibrium at low temperature and coarsening dynamics of classical random spin chains, trap models, delocalization transition of a random polymer from an interface, driven lattice gases and reaction diffusion models in the presence of quenched disorder. For several one-dimensional systems, the Ma-Dasgupta RG rules yields very detailed analytical results, whereas for other, mainly higher dimensional problems, the RG rules have to be implemented numerically. If available, the strong disorder RG results are compared with another, exact or numerical calculations.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0502448
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0502448 (alternate)

3140. The empirical eigenvalue distribution of a Gram matrix: From independence to stationarity

Author(s): W. Hachem and P. Loubaton and J. Najim

Abstract: Consider a $N\times n$ random matrix $Z_n=(Z^n_{j_1 j_2})$ where the individual entries are a realization of a properly rescaled stationary gaussian random field. The purpose of this article is to study the limiting empirical distribution of the eigenvalues of Gram random matrices such as $Z_n Z_n ^*$ and $(Z_n +A_n)(Z_n +A_n)^*$ where $A_n$ is a deterministic matrix with appropriate assumptions in the case where $n\to \infty$ and $\frac Nn \to c \in (0,\infty)$. The proof relies on related results for matrices with independent but not identically distributed entries and substantially differs from related works in the literature (Boutet de Monvel et al., Girko, etc.).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502535
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502535 (alternate)

3141. Preservation of log-concavity on summation

Author(s): Oliver Johnson and Christina Goldschmidt

Abstract: We extend Hoggar's result that the sum of two independent discrete-valued log-concave random variables is itself log-concave. Firstly, we weaken the assumption of independence, and introduce conditions under which the result still holds for dependent variables. Secondly, we introduce a wider class of random variables such that in the independent case the sum is still log-concave, and prove simple results concerning this class.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0502548
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0502548 (alternate)

3142. Semi-Selfdecomposable Laws and Related Processes

Author(s): S Satheesh and E Sandhya

Abstract: In this note we identify Semi-Selfdecomposable Laws as the class of distributions that can generate a linear, additive, first order auto-regressive scheme, that is marginally stationary. We give a method to construct these distributions. Its implications in selfsimilar and semi-selfsimilar processes with additive increments and their subordination are given. The discrete analogues of these processes are also discussed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0412546
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0412546 (alternate)

3143. A note on random walk in random scenery

Author(s): Amine Asselah and Fabienne Castell

Abstract: We consider a d-dimensional random walk in random scenery X(n), where the scenery consists of i.i.d. with exponential moments but a tail decay of the form exp(-c t^a) with any}. We show that this probability is of order exp(-(ny)^b) with b=a/(a+1).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501068
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501068 (alternate)

3144. Probabilistic and fractal aspects of Levy trees

Author(s): Thomas Duquesne (Paris 11) and Jean-Francois Le Gall (ENS Paris)

Abstract: We investigate the random continuous trees called L\'evy trees, which are obtained as scaling limits of discrete Galton-Watson trees. We give a mathematically precise definition of these random trees as random variables taking values in the set of equivalence classes of compact rooted R-trees, which is equipped with the Gromov-Hausdorff distance. To construct L\'evy trees, we make use of the coding by the height process which was studied in detail in previous work. We then investigate various probabilistic properties of L\'evy trees. In particular we establish a branching property analogous to the well-known property for Galton-Watson trees: Conditionally given the tree below level a, the subtrees originating from that level are distributed as the atoms of a Poisson point measure whose intensity involves a local time measure supported on the vertices at distance a from the root. We study regularity properties of local times in the space variable, and prove that the support of local time is the full level set, except for certain exceptional values of a corresponding to local extinctions. We also compute several fractal dimensions of L\'evy trees, including Hausdorff and packing dimensions, in terms of lower and upper indices for the branching mechanism function $\psi$ which characterizes the distribution of the tree. We finally discuss some applications to super-Brownian motion with a general branching mechanism.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501079
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501079 (alternate)

3145. Path Coupling Using Stopping Times and Counting Independent Sets and Colourings in Hypergraphs

Author(s): Magnus Bordewich and Martin Dyer and Marek Karpinski

Abstract: We give a new method for analysing the mixing time of a Markov chain using path coupling with stopping times. We apply this approach to two hypergraph problems. We show that the Glauber dynamics for independent sets in a hypergraph mixes rapidly as long as the maximum degree Delta of a vertex and the minimum size m of an edge satisfy m>= 2Delta+1. We also show that the Glauber dynamics for proper q-colourings of a hypergraph mixes rapidly if m>= 4 and q > Delta, and if m=3 and q>=1.65Delta. We give related results on the hardness of exact and approximate counting for both problems.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501081
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501081 (alternate)

3146. Ruelle's probability cascades seen as a fragmentation process

Author(s): Anne-Laure Basdevant (LPMA)

Abstract: In this paper, we study Ruelle's probability cascades in the framework of time-inhomogeneous fragmentation processes. We describe Ruelle's cascades mechanism exhibiting a family of measures $(\nu_t,t\in [0,1[)$ that characterizes its infinitesimal evolution. To this end, we will first extend the time-homogeneous fragmentation theory to the inhomogeneous case. In the last section, we will study the behavior for small and large times of Ruelle's fragmentation process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501088
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501088 (alternate)

3147. Discrete and continuous Yang-Mills measure for non-trivial bundles over compact surfaces

Author(s): Thierry Levy (DMA)

Abstract: We construct one Yang-Mills measure on a compact surface for each isomorphism class of principal bundles over this surface. For this, we define a new discrete gauge theory which is essentially a covering of the usual one. We prove that the measures correponding to different isomorphism classes of bundles or to different total areas of the surface are mutually singular. We give also a combinatorial computation of the partition functions based on the formalism of fat graphs.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0501014
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0501014 (alternate)

3148. The divergence of fluctuations for the shape on first passage percolation

Author(s): Yu Zhang

Abstract: Consider the first passage percolation model on ${\bf Z}^d$ for $d\geq 2$. In this model we assign independently to each edge the value zero with probability $p$ and the value one with probability $1-p$. We denote by $T({\bf 0}, v)$ the passage time from the origin to $v$ for $v\in {\bf R}^d$ and $$B(t)=\{v\in {\bf R}^d: T({\bf 0}, v)\leq t\}{and} G(t)=\{v\in {\bf R}^d: ET({\bf 0}, v)\leq t\}.$$ It is well known that if $p < p_c$, there exists a compact shape $B_d\subset {\bf R}^d$ such that for all $\epsilon >0$ $$t B_d(1-\epsilon) \subset {B(t)} \subset tB_d(1+\epsilon){and} G(t)(1-{\epsilon}) \subset {B(t)} \subset G(t)(1+{\epsilon}) {eventually w.p.1.}$$ We denote the fluctuations of $B(t)$ from $tB_d$ and $G(t)$ by &&F(B(t), tB_d)=\inf \{l:tB_d(1-{l\over t})\subset B(t)\subset tB_d(1+{l\over t})\} && F(B(t), G(t))=\inf\{l:G(t)(1-{l\over t})\subset B(t)\subset G(t)(1+{l\over t})\}. The means of the fluctuations $E[F(B(t), tB_d]$ and $E[F(B(t), G(t))]$ have been conjectured ranging from divergence to non-divergence for large $d\geq 2$ by physicists. In this paper, we show that for all $d\geq 2$ with a high probability, the fluctuations $F(B(t), G(t))$ and $F(B(t), tB_d)$ diverge with a rate of at least $C \log t$ for some constant $C$. The proof of this argument depends on the linearity between the number of pivotal edges of all minimizing paths and the paths themselves. This linearity is also independently interesting.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501095
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501095 (alternate)

3149. A Random Matrix Approach to the Lack of Projections in C*_red(F_2)

Author(s): Uffe Haagerup and Hanne Schultz and Steen Thorbjornsen

Abstract: In 1982 Pimsner and Voiculescu computed the K_0- and K_1-groups of the reduced group C*-algebra C*_red(F_k) of the free group F_k on k generators and settled thereby a long standing conjecture: C*_red(F_k) has no projections except for the trivial projections 0 and 1. Later simpler proofs of this conjecture were found by methods from K-theory or from non-commutative differential geometry. In this paper we provide a new proof of the fact that C*_red(F_k) is projectionless. The new proof is based on random matrices and is obtained by a refinement of the methods recently used by the first and the third named author to show that the semigroup Ext(C*_red(F_k)) is not a group for k >= 2. By the same type of methods we also obtain that two phenomena proved by Bai and Silverstein for certain classes of random matrices: ``no eigenvalues outside (a small neighbourhood of) the support of the limiting distribution'' and ``exact separation of eigenvalues by gaps in the limiting distribution'' also hold for arbitrary non-commutative selfadjoint polynomials of independent GUE, GOE or GSE random matrices with matrix coefficients.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0412545
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0412545 (alternate)

3150. Transition from the annealed to the quenched asymptotics for a random walk on random obstacles

Author(s): G. Ben Arous and S. Molchanov and A.F. Ramirez

Abstract: In this work we study a natural transition mechanism describing the passage from a quenched (almost sure) regime to an annealed (in average) one, for a symmetric simple random walk on random obstacles on sites having an identical and independent law. The transition mechanism we study was first proposed in the context of sums of identical independent random exponents by Ben Arous, Bogachev and Molchanov in \cite{bbm}. Let $p(x,t)$ be the survival probability at time $t$ of the random walk, starting from site $x$, and $L(t)$ be some increasing function of time. We show that the empirical average of $p(x,t)$ over a box of side $L(t)$ has different asymptotic behaviors depending on $L(t)$. There are constants $0<\gamma_1<\gamma_2$ such that if $ L(t)\ge e^{\gamma t^{d/(d+2)}}$, with $\gamma>\gamma_1$, a law of large numbers is satisfied and the empirical survival probability decreases like the annealed one; if $ L(t)\ge e^{\gamma t^{d/(d+2)}}$, with $\gamma>\gamma_2$, also a central limit theorem is satisfied. If $L(t)\ll t$, the averaged survival probability decreases like the quenched survival probability. If $t\ll L(t)$ and $\log L(t)\ll t^{d/(d+2)}$ we obtain an intermediate regime. Furthermore, when the dimension $d=1$ it is possible to describe the fluctuations of the averaged survival probability when $L(t)=e^{\gamma t^{d/(d+2)}}$ with $\gamma<\gamma_2$: it is shown that they are infinitely divisible laws with a L\'evy spectral function which explodes when $x\to 0$ as stable laws of characteristic exponent $\alpha<2$. These results show that the quenched and annealed survival probabilities correspond to a low and high temperature behavior of a mean field type phase transition mechanism.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501107
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501107 (alternate)

3151. Pinning by a sparse potential

Author(s): Elise Janvresse (LMRS) and Thierry De La Rue (LMRS) and Yvan Velenik (LMRS)

Abstract: We consider a directed polymer interacting with a diluted pinning potential restricted to a line. We characterize explicitely the set of disorder configurations that give rise to localization of the polymer. We study both relevant cases of dimension 1+1 and 1+2. We also discuss the case of massless effective interface models in dimension 2+1.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501135
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501135 (alternate)

3152. Edge-reinforced random walk on a ladder

Author(s): Franz Merkl and Silke Rolles

Abstract: We prove that the edge-reinforced random walk on the ladder Z x {1,2} with initial weights a > 3/4 is recurrent. The proof uses a known representation of the edge-reinforced random walk on a finite piece of the ladder as a random walk in a random environment. This environment is given by a marginal of a multi-component Gibbsian process. A transfer operator technique and entropy estimates from statistical mechanics are used to analyse this Gibbsian process. Furthermore, we prove spatially exponentially fast decreasing bounds for normalized local times of the edge-reinforced random walk on a finite piece of the ladder, uniformly in the size of the finite piece.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501137
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501137 (alternate)

3153. Convergence of Coalescing Nonsimple Random Walks to the Brownian Web

Author(s): Rongfeng Sun

Abstract: The Brownian Web (BW) is a family of coalescing Brownian motions starting from every point in space and time $\R\times\R$. It was first introduced by Arratia, and later analyzed in detail by T\'{o}th and Werner. More recently, Fontes, Isopi, Newman and Ravishankar gave a characterization of the BW, and general convergence criteria allowing either crossing or noncrossing paths, which they verified for coalescing simple random walks. Later Ferrari, Fontes, and Wu verified these criteria for a two dimensional Poisson Tree. In both cases, the paths are noncrossing. In this thesis, we formulate new convergence criteria for crossing paths, and verify them for non-simple coalescing random walks (both discrete and continuous time) satisfying a finite fifth moment condition. This is the first time convergence to the BW has been proved for models with crossing paths. Several corollaries are presented, including an analysis of the scaling limit of voter model interfaces that extends a result of Cox and Durrett.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501141
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501141 (alternate)

3154. Alternatives to the neoBayesian Theorem, avoiding several of its inconsistencies: The rMPE-Method

Author(s): Rainer Gottlob

Abstract: Some drawbacks of the formalism of Bayes Theorem can be avoided by the rMPE-Method, a modification of the cMPE-Method that permits (i): Adding probabilities in spite of non-linearity. (ii): Taking into account extensional evidence and weight-bearing evidence that are mutually dependent, but opposed in their effects. (iii): Arriving at higher probabilities than by Bayes Theorem and (iv): Confirming also hypotheses that imply certain evidence.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501134
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0501134 (alternate)

3155. The Ising-Sherrington-Kirpatrick model in a magnetic field at high temperature

Author(s): Francis Comets (PMA) and Francesco Guerra (Fisica and Roma 1) and Fabio Lucio Toninelli (Phys-ENS)

Abstract: We study a spin system on a large box with both Ising interaction and Sherrington-Kirpatrick couplings, in the presence of an external field. Our results are: (i) existence of the pressure in the limit of an infinite box. When both Ising and Sherrington-Kirpatrick temperatures are high enough, we prove that: (ii) the value of the pressure is given by a suitable replica symmetric solution, and (iii) the fluctuations of the pressure are of order of the inverse of the square of the volume with a normal distribution in the limit. In this regime, the pressure can be expressed in terms of random field Ising models.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501164
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501164 (alternate)

3156. Tanaka formula for symmetric L\'{e}vy processes

Author(s): Paavo Salminen and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: Starting from the potential theoretic definition of the local times of a Markov process - when these exist - we obtain a Tanaka formula for the local times of symmetric L\'{e}vy processes. The most interesting case is that of the symmetric $\al$-stable L\'{e}vy process (for $\al\in[1,2]$) which is studied in detail. In particular, we determine which powers of such a process are semimartingales. These results complete, in a sense, the works by K. Yamada \cite{yamada02} and Fitzsimmons and Getoor \cite{fitzsimmonsgetoor92a}.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501182
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501182 (alternate)

3157. Partly Divisible Probability Distributions

Author(s): S. Albeverio and H. Gottschalk and J.-L. Wu

Abstract: Given a probability distribution $\mu$ a set $\Lambda (\mu)$ of positive real numbers is introduced, so that $\Lambda (\mu)$ measures the "divisibility" of $\mu$. The basic properties of $\Lambda (\mu)$ are described and examples of probability distributions are given, which exhibit the existence of a continuum of situations interpolating the extreme cases of infinitely and minimally divisible probability distributions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501183
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501183 (alternate)

3158. Partly divisible probability measures on locally compact Abelian groups

Author(s): S. Albeverio and H. Gottschalk and J.-L. Wu

Abstract: A notion of admissible probability measures $\mu$ on a locally compact Abelian group (LCA-group) $G$ with connected dual group $\hat G=\R^d\times \T^n$ is defined. To such a measure $\mu$, a closed semigroup $\Lambda(\mu)\subseteq (0,\infty)$ can be associated, such that, for $t\in \Lambda(\mu)$, the Fourier transform to the power $t$, $(\hat \mu)^t$, is a characteristic function. We prove that the existence of roots for non admissible probability measures underlies some restrictions, which do not hold in the admissible case. As we show for the example $\Z_2$, in the case of LCA-groups with non connected dual group, there is no canonical definition of the set $\Lambda(\mu)$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501185
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501185 (alternate)

3159. Estimates of random walk exit probabilities and application to loop-erased random walk

Author(s): Michael J. Kozdron (University of Regina) and Gregory F. Lawler (Cornell University)

Abstract: We prove an estimate for the probability that a simple random walk in a simply connected subset A of Z^2 starting on the boundary exits A at another specified boundary point. The estimates are uniform over all domains of a given inradius. We apply these estimates to prove a conjecture of S. Fomin in 2001 concerning a relationship between crossing probabilities of loop-erased random walk and Brownian motion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501189
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501189 (alternate)

3160. Percolation with Multiple Giant Clusters

Author(s): E. Ben-Naim and P.L. Krapivsky

Abstract: We study the evolution of percolation with freezing. Specifically, we consider cluster formation via two competing processes: irreversible aggregation and freezing. We find that when the freezing rate exceeds a certain threshold, the percolation transition is suppressed. Below this threshold, the system undergoes a series of percolation transitions with multiple giant clusters ("gels") formed. Giant clusters are not self-averaging as their total number and their sizes fluctuate from realization to realization. The size distribution F_k, of frozen clusters of size k, has a universal tail, F_k ~ k^{-3}. We propose freezing as a practical mechanism for controlling the gel size.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0501218
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0501218 (alternate)

3161. Good Rough Path Sequences and Applications to Anticipating & Fractional Stochastic Calculus

Author(s): Laure Coutin and Peter Friz and Nicolas Victoir

Abstract: We consider anticipative Stratonovich stochastic differential equations driven by some stochastic process (not necessarily a semi-martingale). No adaptedness of initial point or vector fields is assumed. Under a simple condition on the stochastic process, we show that the unique solution of the above SDE understood in the rough path sense is actually a Stratonovich solution. This condition is satisfied by the Brownian motion and the fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter greater than 1/4. As application, we obtain rather flexible results such as support theorems, large deviation principles and Wong-Zakai approximations for SDEs driven by fractional Brownian Motion along anticipating vectorfields. In particular, this unifies many results on anticipative SDEs.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501197
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501197 (alternate)

3162. On the increments of the principal value of Brownian local time

Author(s): Endre Cs\'aki and Yueyun Hu

Abstract: Let $W$ be a one-dimensional Brownian motion starting from 0. Define $Y(t)= \int_0^t{\d s \over W(s)} := \lim_{\epsilon\to0} \int_0^t 1_{(|W(s)|> \epsilon)} {\d s \over W(s)} $ as Cauchy's principal value related to local time. We prove limsup and liminf results for the increments of $Y$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501199
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501199 (alternate)

3163. Nonintersecting Paths, Noncolliding Diffusion Processes and Representation Theory

Author(s): Makoto Katori and Hideki Tanemura

Abstract: The system of one-dimensional symmetric simple random walks, in which none of walkers have met others in a given time period, is called the vicious walker model. It was introduced by Michael Fisher and applications of the model to various wetting and melting phenomena were described in his Boltzmann medal lecture. In the present report, we explain interesting connections among representation theory, probability theory, and random matrix theory using this simple diffusion particle system. Each vicious walk of $N$ walkers is represented by an $N$-tuple of nonintersecting lattice paths on the spatio-temporal plane. There is established a simple bijection between nonintersecting lattice paths and semistandard Young tableaux. Based on this bijection and some knowledge of symmetric polynomials called the Schur functions, we can give a determinantal expression to the partition function of vicious walks, which is regarded as a special case of the Karlin-McGregor formula in the probability theory (or the Lindstr\"om-Gessel-Viennot formula in the enumerative combinatorics). Due to a basic property of Schur function, we can take the diffusion scaling limit of the vicious walks and define a noncolliding system of Brownian particles. This diffusion process solves the stochastic differential equations with the drift terms acting as the repulsive two-body forces proportional to the inverse of distances between particles, and thus it is identified with Dyson's Brownian motion model. In other words, the obtained noncolliding system of Brownian particles is equivalent in distribution with the eigenvalue process of a Hermitian matrix-valued process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501218
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501218 (alternate)

3164. Random dynamics and thermodynamic limits for polygonal Markov fields in the plane

Author(s): Tomasz Schreiber

Abstract: We construct random dynamics on collections of non-intersecting planar contours, leaving invariant the distributions of length- and area-interacting polygonal Markov fields with V-shaped nodes. The first of these dynamics is based on the dynamic construction of consistent polygonal fields, as presented in the original articles by Arak (1982) and Arak and Surgailis (1989, 1991), and it provides an easy-to-implement Metropolis-type simulation algorithm. The second dynamics leads to a graphical construction in the spirit of Fernandez, Ferrari and Garcia (1998,2002) and it yields a perfect simulation scheme in a finite window from the infinite-volume limit. This algorithm seems difficult to implement, yet its value lies in that it allows for theoretical analysis of thermodynamic limit behaviour of length-interacting polygonal fields. The results thus obtained include the uniqueness and exponential $\alpha$-mixing of the thermodynamic limit of such fields in the low temperature region, in the class of infinite-volume Gibbs measures without infinite contours. Outside this class we conjecture the existence of an infinite number of extreme phases breaking both the translational and rotational symmetries

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501228
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501228 (alternate)

3165. Random Geometric Graph Diameter in the Unit Ball

Author(s): Robert B. Ellis and Jeremy L. Martin and and Catherine Yan

Abstract: The unit ball random geometric graph $G=G^d_p(\lambda,n)$ has as its vertices $n$ points distributed independently and uniformly in the $d$-dimensional unit ball, with two vertices adjacent if and only if their $l_p$-distance is at most $\lambda$. Like its cousin the Erdos-Renyi random graph, $G$ has a connectivity threshold: an asymptotic value for $\lambda$ in terms of $n$, above which $G$ is connected and below which $G$ is disconnected (and in fact has isolated vertices in most cases). In the disconnected zone, we discuss the number of isolated vertices. In the connected zone, we determine upper and lower bounds for the graph diameter of $G$. We employ a combination of methods from probabilistic combinatorics and stochastic geometry.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501214
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0501214 (alternate)

3166. Statistical properties of the phase transitions in a spin model for market microstructure

Author(s): Muffasir Badshah and Robert Boyer and Ted Theodosopoulos

Abstract: Increased day-trading activity and the subsequent jump in intraday volatility and trading volume fluctuations has raised considerable interest in models for financial market microstructure. We investigate the random transitions between two phases of an agent-based spin market model on a random network. The objective of the agents is to balance their desire to belong to the global minority and simultaneously to the local majority. We show that transitions between the "ordered" and "disordered" phases follow a Poisson process with a rate that is a monotonically decreasing function of the network connectivity.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501244
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501244 (alternate)

3167. Properties of a renewal process approximation for a spin market model

Author(s): Muffasir Badshah and Robert Boyer and Ted Theodosopoulos

Abstract: In this short note we investigate the natur of the phase transitions in a spin market model as a function of the interaction strength between local and global effects. We find that the stochastic dynamics of this stylized market model exhibit a periodicity whose dependence on the coupling constant in the Ising-like Hamiltonian is robust to changes in the temperature and the size of the market.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501248
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501248 (alternate)

3168. Free transportation cost inequalities for non-commutative multi-variables

Author(s): Fumio Hiai and Yoshimichi Ueda

Abstract: We prove the free analogue of the transportation cost inequality for tracial distributions of non-commutative self-adjoint (also unitary) multi-variables based on random matrix approximation procedure.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501238
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0501238 (alternate)

3169. Multidimensional Bermudan option pricing via cubature and how to extrapolate to price American options

Author(s): Frederik S Herzberg

Abstract: Non-perpetual American option prices shall be approximated by non-perpetual Bermudan option prices, which in turn can be computed in a recombining tree of European options. It will be proven that perpetual and non-perpetual Bermudan option prices have comparable analytic behaviour when perceived as functions of the exercise mesh size. Using a Wiener-Hopf factorisation, a theoretical formula for perpetual Bermudan option prices is derived. Based on this formula, some rather elementary semigroup analysis gives rise to a power series for the perpetual Bermudan price as a function of the exercise mesh size, paving the way to understand the limiting behaviour as the exercise mesh size tends to naught. Results by Feller that are based on Fourier analytic deliberations will enable us -- for a number of models, including the Black-Scholes and Merton's jump-diffusion models, -- to prove order estimates on the behaviour of Bermudan option prices on stocks with a start price at the exercise boundary. As a consequence, one obtains a natural scaling for the computation of American option prices by means of a non-polynomial extrapolation of Bermudan prices.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501261
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501261 (alternate)

3170. Backward Stochastic Differential Equations on Manifolds

Author(s): Fabrice Blache

Abstract: The problem of finding a martingale on a manifold with a fixed random terminal value can be solved by considering BSDEs with a generator with quadratic growth. We study here a generalization of these equations and we give uniqueness and existence results in two different frameworks, using differential geometry tools. Applications to PDEs are given, including a certain class of Dirichlet problems on manifolds.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501265
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501265 (alternate)

3171. Small ball probability estimates in terms of width

Author(s): Rafa{\l} Lata{\l}a and Krzysztof Oleszkiewicz

Abstract: A certain inequality conjectured by Vershynin is studied. It is proved that for any $n$-dimensional symmetric convex body $K$ with inradius $w$ and $\gamma_{n}(K) \leq 1/2$ there is $\gamma_{n}(sK) \leq (2s)^{w^{2}/4}\gamma_{n}(K)$ for any $s \in [0,1]$. Some natural corollaries are deduced. Another conjecture of Vershynin is proved to be false.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501268
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501268 (alternate)

3172. Free analog of pressure and its Legendre transform

Author(s): Fumio Hiai

Abstract: The free analog of the pressure is introduced for multivariate noncommutative random variables and its Legendre transform is compared with Voiculescu's microstate free entropy.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0403210
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0403210 (alternate)

3173. Free Extreme Values

Author(s): Gerard Ben Arous and Dan Virgil Voiculescu

Abstract: Free probability analogues of the basics of extreme value theory are obtained, based on Ando's spectral order. This includes classification of freely max-stable laws and their domains of attraction, using ``free extremal convolutions'' on the distributions. These laws coincide with the limit laws in the classical peaks-over-threshold approach. A free extremal projection-valued process over a measure-space is constructed, which is related to the free Poisson point process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501274
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0501274 (alternate)

3174. Poisson-Dirichlet distribution for random Belyi surfaces

Author(s): A. Gamburd

Abstract: Brooks and Makover introduced an approach to studying the global geometric quantities (in particular, the first eigenvalue of the Laplacian, injectivity radius and diameter) of a "typical" compact Riemann surface of large genus based on compactifying finite-area Riemann surfaces associated with random cubic graphs; by a theorem of Belyi these are "dense" in the space of compact Riemann surfaces. The question as to how these surfaces are distributed in the Teichm\"{u}ller spaces depends on the study of oriented cycles in random cubic graphs with random orientation; Brooks and Makover conjectured that asymptotically normalized cycles lengths follow Poisson-Dirichlet distribution. We present a proof of this conjecture using representation theory of the symmetric group. Consequently we also make progress towards a conjecture of Pippenger and Schleich which arose in the study of topological characteristics of random surfaces generated by cubic interactions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501283
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501283 (alternate)

3175. Stationary distributions of multi-type totally asymmetric exclusion processes

Author(s): Pablo A. Ferrari and James B. Martin

Abstract: We consider totally asymmetric simple exclusion processes with n types of particle and holes (n-TASEPs) on Z and on the cycle Z_N. Angel recently gave an elegant construction of the stationary measures for the 2-TASEP, based on a pair of independent product measures. We show that Angel's construction can be interpreted in terms of the operation of a discrete-time M/M/1 queueing server; the two product measures correspond to the arrival and service processes of the queue. We extend this construction to represent the stationary measures of an n-TASEP in terms of a system of queues in tandem. The proof of stationarity involves a system of n 1-TASEPs, whose evolutions are coupled but whose distributions at any fixed time are independent. Using the queueing representation, we give quantitative results for stationary probabilities of states of the n-TASEP on Z_N, and simple proofs of various independence and regeneration properties for systems on Z.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501291
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501291 (alternate)

3176. Generalized Arithmetic and Geometric Mean Divergence Measure and their Statistical Aspects

Author(s): Inder Jeet Taneja

Abstract: Using Blackwell's definition of comparing two experiments, a comparison is made with \textit{generalized AG - divergence} measure having one and two scalar parameters. Connection of \textit{generalized AG - divergence} measure with \textit{Fisher measure of information} is also presented. A unified \textit{generalization of AG - divergence }and\textit{ Jensen-Shannon divergence measures} is also presented.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501297
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501297 (alternate)

3177. On Mean Divergence Measures

Author(s): Inder Jeet Taneja

Abstract: \textit{Arithmetic, geometric and harmonic means} are the three classical means famous in the literature. Another mean such as \textit{square-root mean} is also known. In this paper, we have constructed divergence measures based on nonnegative differences among these means, and established an interesting inequality by use of properties of Csisz\'{a}r $f-$\textit{divergence}. Connections of new \textit{mean divergences} measures with classical divergence measures such as Jeffreys-Kullback-Leiber \cite{jef}, \cite{kul} \textit{J-divergence}, Sibson-Burbea-Rao \cite{sib}, \cite{bra} \textit{Jensen difference divergence measure} and Taneja \cite{tan2} \textit{AG -- divergence} are also established.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0501298
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0501298 (alternate)

3178. On Unified Generalizations of Relative Jensen--Shannon and Arithmetic--Geometric Divergence Measures, and Their Properties

Author(s): Pranesh Kumar and Inder Jeet Taneja

Abstract: In this paper we shall consider one parametric generalization of some non-symmetric divergence measures. The \textit{non-symmetric divergence measures} are such as: Kullback-Leibler \textit{relative information}, $\chi ^2-$\textit{divergence}, \textit{relative J -- divergence}, \textit{relative Jensen -- Shannon divergence} and \textit{relative Arithmetic -- Geometric divergence}. All the generalizations considered can be written as particular cases of Csisz\'{a}r's \textit{f