Probability Abstracts 89

This document contains abstracts 3647-3795. They have been mailed on November 7, 2005.

3647. Multiple decorrelation and rate of convergence in multidimensional limit theorems for the Prokhorov metric

Author(s): Francoise Pene

Abstract: The motivation of this work is the study of the error term e_t^{\epsilon}(x,\omega) in the averaging method for differential equations perturbed by a dynamical system. Results of convergence in distribution for (\frac{e_t^{\epsilon}(x,\cdot)}{\sqrt\epsilon})_{\epsilon>0} have been established in Khas'minskii [Theory Probab. Appl. 11 (1966) 211-228], Kifer [Ergodic Theory Dynamical Systems 15 (1995) 1143-1172] and P\`ene [ESAIM Probab. Statist. 6 (2002) 33-88]. We are interested here in the question of the rate of convergence in distribution of the family of random variables (\frac{e_t^{\epsilon}(x,\cdot)}{\sqrt\epsilon})_{\epsilon>0} when \epsilon goes to 0 (t>0 and x\inR^d being fixed). We will make an assumption of multiple decorrelation property (satisfied in several situations). We start by establishing a simpler result: the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for regular multidimensional functions. In this context, we prove a result of convergence in distribution with rate of convergence in O(n^{-1/2+\alpha}) for all \alpha>0 (for the Prokhorov metric). This result can be seen as an extension of the main result of P\`ene [Comm. Math. Phys. 225 (2002) 91-119] to the case of d-dimensional functions. In a second time, we use the same method to establish a result of convergence in distribution for (\frac{e_t^{\epsilon}(x,\cdot)}{\sqrt\epsilon})_{\epsilon>0} with rate of convergence in O(\epsilon^{1/2-\alpha}) (for the Prokhorov metric).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509008
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509008 (alternate)

3648. Continuum tree limit for the range of random walks on regular trees

Author(s): Thomas Duquesne (Paris 11)

Abstract: Let $b$ be an integer greater than 1 and let $W^{\ee}=(W^{\ee}_n; n\geq 0)$ be a random walk on the $b$-ary rooted tree $\U_b$, starting at the root, going up (resp. down) with probability $1/2+\epsilon$ (resp. $1/2 -\epsilon$), $\epsilon \in (0, 1/2)$, and choosing direction $i\in \{1, ..., b\}$ when going up with probability $a_i$. Here $\aa =(a_1, ..., a_b)$ stands for some non-degenerated fixed set of weights. We consider the range $\{W^{\ee}_n ; n\geq 0 \}$ that is a subtree of $\U_b $. It corresponds to a unique random rooted ordered tree that we denote by $\tau_{\epsilon}$. We rescale the edges of $\tau_{\epsilon}$ by a factor $\ee $ and we let $\ee$ go to 0: we prove that correlations due to frequent backtracking of the random walk only give rise to a deterministic phenomenon taken into account by a positive factor $\gamma (\aa)$. More precisely, we prove that $\tau_{\epsilon}$ converges to a continuum random tree encoded by two independent Brownian motions with drift conditioned to stay positive and scaled in time by $\gamma (\aa)$. We actually state the result in the more general case of a random walk on a tree with an infinite number of branches at each node ($b=\infty$) and for a general set of weights $\aa =(a_n, n\geq 0)$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509524
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509524 (alternate)

3649. An explicit Skorokhod embedding for functionals of Markovian excursions

Author(s): Jan Obloj (PMA and Mimuw)

Abstract: We develop an explicit non-randomized solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem in an abstract setup of signed functionals of Markovian excursions. Our setting allows to solve the Skorokhod embedding problem, in particular, for diffusions and their (signed, scaled) age processes, for Azema's martingale, for spectrally one-sided Levy processes and their reflected versions, for Bessel processes of dimension smaller than 2, and for their age processes, as well as for the age process of excursions of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes. This work is a continuation and an important generalization of Obloj and Yor (SPA 110) [35]. Our methodology, following [35], is based on excursion theory and the solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem is described in terms of the Ito measure of the functional. We also derive an embedding for positive functionals and we correct a mistake in the formula in [35] for measures with atoms.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509553
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509553 (alternate)

3650. Diffusions in random environment and ballistic behavior

Author(s): Tom Schmitz

Abstract: This article is accepted for publication in the "Annals I.H.P. Prob. & Stat.". We investigate the ballistic behavior of diffusions in random environment. We introduce conditions in the spirit of (T) and (T') of the discrete setting, cf. Sznitman \cite{szn01}, \cite{szn02}, that imply in higher dimensions a strong law of large numbers with non-vanishing limiting velocity (which we refer to as 'ballistic behavior') and a functional central limit theorem with non-degenerate covariance matrix. As an application of our results, we consider the class of diffusions where the diffusion matrix is the identity, and give a concrete criterion on the drift term under which the diffusion in random environment exhibits ballistic behavior. This criterion provides new examples of ballistic diffusions in random environment.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509554
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509554 (alternate)

3651. Random Trees, Levy Processes and Spatial Branching Processes

Author(s): Thomas Duquesne (Paris 11) and Jean-Francois Le Gall (Ecole Normale Superieure de Paris and Paris 6)

Abstract: We investigate the genealogical structure of general critical or subcritical continuous-state branching processes. Analogously to the coding of a discrete tree by its contour function, this genealogical structure is coded by a real-valued stochastic process called the height process, which is itself constructed as a local time functional of a Levy process with no negative jumps. We present a detailed study of the height process and of an associated measure-valued process called the exploration process, which plays a key role in most applications. Under suitable assumptions, we prove that whenever a sequence of rescaled Galton-Watson processes converges in distribution, their genealogies also converge to the continuous branching structure coded by the appropriate height process. We apply this invariance principle to various asymptotics for Galton-Watson trees. We then use the duality properties of the exploration process to compute explicitly the distribution of the reduced tree associated with Poissonnian marks in the height process, and the finite-dimensional marginals of the so-called stable continuous tree. This last calculation generalizes to the stable case a result of Aldous for the Brownian continuum random tree. Finally, we combine the genealogical structure with an independent spatial motion to develop a new approach to superprocesses with a general branching mechanism. In this setting, we derive certain explicit distributions, such as the law of the spatial reduced tree in a domain, consisting of the collection of all historical paths that hit the boundary.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509558
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509558 (alternate)

3652. Decompositions of stochastic processes based on irreductible group representations

Author(s): Giovanni Peccati (LSTA) and Jean-Renaud Pycke (DP)

Abstract: Let G be a topological compact group acting on some space Y. We study a decomposition of Y-indexed stochastic processes, based on the orthogonality relations between the characters of the irreducible representations of G. In the particular case of a Gaussian process with a G-invariant law, such a decomposition gives a very general explanation of a classic identity in law - between quadratic functionals of a Brownian bridge - due to Watson (1961). Several relations with Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansions are discussed, and some applications and extensions are given - in particular related to Gaussian processes indexed by a torus.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509569
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509569 (alternate)

3653. Optimal Phylogenetic Reconstruction

Author(s): Constantinos Daskalakis and Elchanan Mossel and Sebastien Roch

Abstract: It is well known that in order to reconstruct a tree on $n$ leaves, sequences of length $\Omega(\log n)$ are needed. It was conjectured by M. Steel that for the CFN evolutionary model, if the mutation probability on all edges of the tree is less than $p^{\ast} = (\sqrt{2}-1)/2^{3/2}$ than the tree can be recovered from sequences of length $O(\log n)$. This was proven by the second author in the special case where the tree is ``balanced''. The second author also proved that if all edges have mutation probability larger than $p^{\ast}$ then the length needed is $n^{\Omega(1)}$. This ``phase-transition'' in the number of samples needed is closely related to the phase transition for the reconstruction problem (or extremality of free measure) studied extensively in statistical physics and probability. Here we complete the proof of Steel's conjecture and give a reconstruction algorithm using optimal (up to a multiplicative constant) sequence length. Our results further extend to obtain optimal reconstruction algorithm for the Jukes-Cantor model with short edges. All reconstruction algorithms run in time polynomial in the sequence length. The algorithm and the proofs are based on a novel combination of combinatorial, metric and probabilistic arguments.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509575
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509575 (alternate)

3654. Slow Emergence of Cooperation for Win-Stay Lose-Shift on Trees

Author(s): Elchanan Mossel and Sebastien Roch

Abstract: We consider a group of agents on a graph who repeatedly play the prisoner's dilemma game against their neighbors. The players adapt their actions to the past behavior of their opponents by applying the win-stay lose-shift strategy. On a finite connected graph, it is easy to see that the system learns to cooperate by converging to the all-cooperate state in a finite time. We analyze the rate of convergence in terms of the size and structure of the graph. [Dyer et al., 2002] showed that the system converges rapidly on the cycle, but that it takes a time exponential in the size of the graph to converge to cooperation on the complete graph. We show that the emergence of cooperation is exponentially slow in some expander graphs. More surprisingly, we show that it is also exponentially slow in bounded-degree trees, where many other dynamics are known to converge rapidly.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509576
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509576 (alternate)

3655. Limit theorems for number of diffusion processes which did not absorb by boundaries

Author(s): Aniello Fedullo and Vitalii A. Gasanenko

Abstract: We have random number of independent diffusion processes with absorption on boundaries in some region at initial time $t=0$. The initial numbers and positions of processes in region is defined by Poisson random measure. It is required to estimate of number of the unabsorbed processes for the fixed time \~$\tau>0$. The Poisson random measure depends on $\tau$ and $\tau\to\infty$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509585
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509585 (alternate)

3656. Limit raring proceses with apllication

Author(s): Vitalii A. Gasanenko

Abstract: This paper deals with study of the sufficient condition of approximation raring process with mixing by renewall process. We consider use the proved results to practice problem too

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509586
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509586 (alternate)

3657. The principle of a single big jump: discrete and continuous time modulated random walks with heavy-tailed increments

Author(s): Serguei Foss and Takis Konstantopoulos and Stan Zachary

Abstract: We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we exhibit natural conditions under which the asymptotics of the tail distribution of the overall maximum of S can be computed. We present results in discrete and in continuous time. In particular, in the absence of modulation, the process S in continuous time reduces to a Levy process with heavy-tailed Levy measure. A central point of the paper is that we make full use of the so-called ``principle of a single big jump'' in order to obtain both upper and lower bounds. Thus, the proofs are entirely probabilistic. The paper is motivated by queueing and Levy stochastic networks.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509605
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509605 (alternate)

3658. Further examples of explicit Krein representations of certain subordinators

Author(s): Catherine Donati-Martin (PMA) and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: In a previous paper, we have shown that the gamma subordinators may be represented as inverse local times of certain diffusions. In the present paper, we give such representations for other subordinators whose L\'evy densities are of the form $ \frac{\mathcal{C}}{(\sinh(y))^\gamma}$, $0 < \gamma < 2$, and the more general family obtained from those by exponential tilting.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509041
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509041 (alternate)

3659. The spectrum of the averaging operator on a network (metric graph)

Author(s): Donald I. Cartwright and Wolfgang Woess

Abstract: A network is a countable, connected graph X viewed as a one-complex, where each edge [x,y]=[y,x] (x,y in X^0, the vertex set) is a copy of the unit interval within the graph's one-skeleton X^1 and is assigned a positive conductance c(xy). A reference "Lebesgue" measure on X^1 is built up by using Lebesgue measure with total mass c(xy) on each edge [x,y]. There are three natural operators on X : the transition operator P acting on functions on X^0 (the reversible Markov chain associated with the conductances), the averaging operator A over spheres of radius 1 on X^1, and the Laplace operator on X^1 (with Kirchhoff conditions weighted by c(.) at the vertices). The relation between the l^2-spectrum of P and the H^2-spectrum of the Laplacian was described by Cattaneo (Mh. Math. 124, 1997). In this paper we describe the relation between the l^2-spectrum of P and the L^2-spectrum of A.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509595
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.FA/0509595 (alternate)

3660. Ergodic behaviour of locally regulated branching populations

Author(s): Martin Hutzenthaler and Anton Wakolbinger

Abstract: For a class of processes modeling the evolution of a spatially structured population with migration and a logistic local regulation of the reproduction dynamics we show convergence towards an upper invariant measure from a suitable class of initial distributions. It follows from recent work of A. Etheridge that this upper invariant measure is non-trivial for sufficiently large super-criticality in the reproduction. For sufficiently small super-criticality we prove local extinction by comparison with a mean field model. This latter result extends also to more general local reproduction regulations.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509612
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509612 (alternate)

3661. Nonlinear stochastic models of 1/f noise and power-law distributions

Author(s): Bronislovas Kaulakys and Julius Ruseckas and Vygintas Gontis and Miglius Alaburda

Abstract: Starting from the developed generalized point process model of $1/f$ noise (B. Kaulakys et al, Phys. Rev. E 71 (2005) 051105; cond-mat/0504025) we derive the nonlinear stochastic differential equations for the signal exhibiting 1/f^{\beta}$ noise and $1/x^{\lambda}$ distribution density of the signal intensity with different values of $\beta$ and $\lambda$. The processes with $1/f^{\beta}$ are demonstrated by the numerical solution of the derived equations with the appropriate restriction of the diffusion of the signal in some finite interval. The proposed consideration may be used for modeling and analysis of stochastic processes in different systems with the power-law distributions, long-range memory or with the elements of self-organization.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0509626
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0509626 (alternate)

3662. Limit laws for distorted return time processes for infinite measure preserving transformations

Author(s): Marc Kesseb\"ohmer and Mehdi Slassi

Abstract: We consider conservative ergodic measure preserving transformations on infinite measure spaces and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of distorted return time processes with respect to sets satisfying a type of Darling-Kac condition. As applications we derive asymptotic laws for the normalized Kac process and the normalized spent time Kac process. We introduce the notion of uniformly returning sets, for which we prove that if the wandering rate is slowly varying then the normalized spent time Kac process converges strongly distributional to a random variable uniformly distributed on the unit interval.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509609
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0509609 (alternate)

3663. PDE's for the Gaussian ensemble with external source and the Pearcey distribution

Author(s): Mark Adler & Pierre van Moerbeke

Abstract: The present paper studies a Gaussian Hermitian random matrix ensemble with external source, given by a fixed diagonal matrix with two eigenvalues a and -a. As a first result, the probability that the eigenvalues of the ensemble belong to a set satisfies a fourth order PDE with quartic non-linearity; the variables being the eigenvalue a and the boundary points of the set. This equation enables one to find a PDE for the Pearcey distribution. The latter describes the statistics of the eigenvalues near the closure of a gap; i.e., when the support of the equilibrium measure for large size random matrices has a gap, which can be made to close. Precisely, the Gaussian Hermitian random matrix ensemble with external source has this feature. In this work, we show the Pearcey distribution satisfies a a fourth order PDE with cubic non-linearity. The PDE for the finite problem is found by by showing that an appropriate integrable deformation of the random matrix ensemble with external source satisfies the three-component KP equation and Virasoro constraints.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509047
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509047 (alternate)

3664. Central limit theorem for stationary linear processes

Author(s): Magda Peligrad and Sergey Utev

Abstract: We establish the central limit theorem for linear processes with dependent innovations including martingales and mixingale type of assumptions as defined in McLeisch (1977) and motivated by Gordin (1969). In doing so we shall preserve the generality of the coefficients, including the long range dependence case, and we shall express the variance of partial sums in a form easy to apply. Ergodicity is not required.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509682
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509682 (alternate)

3665. The Hausdorff measure of stable trees

Author(s): Thomas Duquesne (Universite Paris 11); Jean-Francois Le Gall (Ecole Normale superieure et Universite Paris 6)

Abstract: We study fine properties of the so-called stable trees, which are the scaling limits of critical Galton-Watson trees conditioned to be large. In particular we derive the exact Hausdorff measure function for Aldous' continuum random tree and for its level sets. It follows that both the uniform measure on the tree and the local time measure on a level set coincide with certain Hausdorff measures. Slightly less precise results are obtained for the Hausdorff measure of general stable trees.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509690
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509690 (alternate)

3666. Localization and delocalization of random interfaces

Author(s): Yvan Velenik (LMRS)

Abstract: The study of effective interface models has been quite active recently, with a particular emphasis on the effect of various external potentials (wall, pinning potential, ...) leading to localization/delocalization transitions. I review some of the results that have been obtained. In particular, I discuss pinning by a local potential, entropic repulsion and the (pre)wetting transition, both for models with continuous and discrete heights. This text is based on lecture notes for a mini-course given during the workshop "Topics in Random Interfaces and Directed Polymers" held in Leipzig, September 12-17 2005.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509695
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509695 (alternate)

3667. On some recent aspects of stochastic control theory and their applications

Author(s): Huyen Pham (PMA)

Abstract: This paper is a survey on some recent aspects and developments in stochastic control theory. We discuss the two main historical approaches, Bellman's optimality principle and Pontryagin's maximum principle, and their modern exposition with viscosity solutions and backward stochastic differential equations. Some original proofs are presented in a unifying context including degenerate singular controlControlled diffusions, dynamic programming, maximum principle, viscosity solutions, backward stochastic differential equations, finance. problems. We emphasize key results on characterization of optimal control for diffusion processes, with a view towards applications. Some examples in finance are detailed with their explicit solutions. We also discuss numerical issues and open questions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509711
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509711 (alternate)

3668. Recursive computation of the invariant measure of a stochastic differential equation driven by a L\'{e}vy process

Author(s): Fabien Panloup (PMA)

Abstract: We investigate some recursive procedures based on an exact or ``approximate'' Euler scheme with decreasing step in vue to computation of invariant measures of solutions to S.D.E. driven by a L\'{e}vy process. Our results are valid for a large class of S.D.E. that can be governed by L\'{e}vy processes with few moments or can have a weakly mean-reverting drift, and permit to find again the a.s. C.L.T for stable processes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509712
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509712 (alternate)

3669. Stochastic embedding of dynamical systems

Author(s): Jacky Cresson (LM-Besan\c{c}on) and S\'{e}bastien Darses (LM-Besan\c{c}on)

Abstract: Most physical systems are modelled by an ordinary or a partial differential equation, like the n-body problem in celestial mechanics. In some cases, for example when studying the long term behaviour of the solar system or for complex systems, there exist elements which can influence the dynamics of the system which are not well modelled or even known. One way to take these problems into account consists of looking at the dynamics of the system on a larger class of objects, that are eventually stochastic. In this paper, we develop a theory for the stochastic embedding of ordinary differential equations. We apply this method to Lagrangian systems. In this particular case, we extend many results of classical mechanics namely, the least action principle, the Euler-Lagrange equations, and Noether's theorem. We also obtain a Hamiltonian formulation for our stochastic Lagrangian systems. Many applications are discussed at the end of the paper.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509713
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509713 (alternate)

3670. Dyson's Brownian motions, intertwining and interlacing

Author(s): Jon Warren

Abstract: A family of reflected Brownian motions is used to construct Dyson's process of non-colliding Brownian motions. A number of explicit formulae are given, including one for the distribution of a family of coalescing Brownian motions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509720
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509720 (alternate)

3671. Self-Intersection Times for Random Walk, and Random Walk in Random Scenery in dimensions d>4

Author(s): Amine Asselah Fabienne Castell

Abstract: We consider Random Walk in Random Scenery , denoted $X_n$, where the random walk is symmetric on $Z^d$, with $d>4$, and the random field is made up of i.i.d random variables with a stretched exponential tail decay, with exponent $\alpha$ with $1<\alpha$. We present asymptotics for the probability, over both randomness, that $\{X_n>n^{\beta}\}$ for $1/2<\beta<1$. To obtain such asymptotics, we establish large deviations estimates for the the self-intersection local times process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509721
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509721 (alternate)

3672. Non-negativity preserving numerical algorithms for stochastic differential equations

Author(s): Esteban Moro and Henri Schurz

Abstract: Construction of splitting-step methods and properties of related non-negativity and boundary preserving numerical algorithms for solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of Ito-type are discussed. We present convergence proofs for a newly designed splitting-step algorithm and simulation studies for numerous numerical examples ranging from stochastic dynamics occurring in asset pricing theory in mathematical finance (SDEs of CIR and CEV models) to measure-valued diffusion and superBrownian motion (SPDEs) as met in biology and physics.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509724
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NA/0509724 (alternate)

3673. Limit theorems on large deviations for semimartingales

Author(s): Robert Sh. Liptser and Anatolii A. Pukhalskii

Abstract: We consider a sequence $X^n=(X^n_t)_{t\ge 0},n\ge 1$ of semimartingales. Each $X^n$ is a weak solution to an It\^o equation with respect to a Wiener process and a Poissonian martingale measure and is in general non-Markovian process. For this sequence, we prove the large deviation principle in the Skorokhod space $D=D_{[0,\infty)}$. We use a new approach based on of exponential tightness. This allows us to establish the large deviation principle under weaker assumptions than before.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510028
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510028 (alternate)

3674. Large deviations for two scaled diffusions

Author(s): R. Liptser

Abstract: We formulate large deviations principle (LDP) for diffusion pair $(X^\epsilon,\xi^\epsilon)=(X_t^\epsilon,\xi_t^\epsilon)$, where first component has a small diffusion parameter while the second is ergodic Markovian process with fast time. More exactly, the LDP is established for $(X^\epsilon,\nu^\epsilon)$ with $\nu^\epsilon(dt,dz)$ being an occupation type measure corresponding to $\xi_t^\epsilon$. In some sense we obtain a combination of Freidlin-Wentzell's and Donsker-Varadhan's results. Our approach relies the concept of the exponential tightness and Puhalskii's theorem.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510029
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510029 (alternate)

3675. Solvable models of neighbor-dependent nucleotide substitution processes

Author(s): Jean B\'erard and Jean-Baptiste Gou\'er\'e and Didier Piau

Abstract: We prove that a wide class of models of Markov neighbor-dependent substitution processes on the integer line is solvable. This class contains some models of nucleotide substitutions recently introduced and studied empirically by molecular biologists. We show that the frequency of every polynucleotide at equilibrium solves an explicit finite-sized linear system. Finally, the dynamics of the process and the distribution at equilibrium exhibit some stringent, unexpected, independence properties. For example, nucleotide sites at distance at least three evolve independently, and the sites, if encoded as purines and pyrimidines, evolve independently.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510034
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510034 (alternate)

3676. Harmonic moments of non homogeneous branching processes

Author(s): Didier Piau

Abstract: We study the harmonic moments of Galton-Watson processes, possibly non homogeneous, with positive values. Good estimates of these are needed to compute unbiased estimators for non canonical branching Markov processes, which occur, for instance, in the modeling of the polymerase chain reaction. By convexity, the ratio of the harmonic mean to the mean is at most 1. We prove that, for every square integrable branching mechanisms, this ratio lies between 1-A/k and 1-B/k for every initial population of size k greater than A. The positive constants A and B, such that B is at most A, are explicit and depend only on the generation-by-generation branching mechanisms. In particular, we do not use the distribution of the limit of the classical martingale associated to the Galton-Watson process. Thus, emphasis is put on non asymptotic bounds and on the dependence of the harmonic mean upon the size of the initial population. In the Bernoulli case, which is relevant for the modeling of the polymerase chain reaction, we prove essentially optimal bounds that are valid for every initial population. Finally, in the general case and for large enough initial populations, similar techniques yield sharp estimates of the harmonic moments of higher degrees.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510035
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510035 (alternate)

3677. Invariance principle for the coverage rate of genomic physical mappings

Author(s): Didier Piau

Abstract: We study some stochastic models of physical mapping of genomic sequences. Our starting point is a global construction of the process of the clones and of the process of the anchors which are used to map the sequence. This yields explicit formulas for the moments of the proportion occupied by the anchored clones, even in inhomogeneous models. This also allows to compare, in this respect, inhomogeneous models to homogeneous ones. Finally, for homogeneous models, we provide nonasymptotic bounds of the variance and we prove functional invariance results.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510036
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510036 (alternate)

3678. Asymptotics of iterated branching processes

Author(s): Didier Piau

Abstract: We study the iterated Galton-Watson process (IGW), possibly with thinning, introduced by Gawe{\l}and Kimmel to model the number of repeats of DNA triplets during some genetic disorders. If the process involves some thinning, then extinction and explosion can have positive probability simultaneously. If the underlying (simple) Galton-Watson process is nondecreasing with mean m, then, conditionally on the explosion, the logarithm of the population of the IGW at time n+1 is equivalent to log(m) times the population at time n, almost surely. This simplifies arguments of Gawe{\l}and Kimmel, and confirms and extends a conjecture of Pakes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510037
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510037 (alternate)

3679. On two duality properties of random walks in random environment on the integer line

Author(s): Didier Piau

Abstract: According to Comets, Gantert and Zeitouni on the one hand and to Derriennic on the other hand, some functionals associated to the hitting times of random walks in random environment on the integer line coincide, for the walk itself and for the walk in the reversed environment. We show that these two duality principles are algebraically equivalent, that they both stem from the Markov property of the walk in a fixed environment, and not of the ergodicity of the model, and that there exists finitist and almost sure versions of this duality.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510038
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510038 (alternate)

3680. Counting the Chain Records: The Product Case

Author(s): Alexander V. Gnedin

Abstract: Chain records is a new type of multidimensional record. We discuss how often the chain records are broken when the background sampling is from the unit cube with uniform distribution (or, more generally, from an arbitrary continuous product distribution).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510042
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510042 (alternate)

3681. Maximal generalization of Baum-Katz theorem and optimality of sequential tests

Author(s): Didier Piau

Abstract: Baum-Katz theorem asserts that the Cesaro means of i.i.d. increments distributed like X r-converge if and only if |X|^{r+1} is integrable. We generalize this, and we unify other results, by proving that the following equivalence holds, if and only if G is moderate: the Cesaro means G-converge if and only if G(L(a)) is integrable for every a if and only if |X|.G(|X|) is integrable. Here, L(a) is the last time when the deviation of the Cesaro mean from its limit exceeds a, and G-convergence is the analogue of r-convergence. This solves a question about the asymptotic optimality of Wald's sequential tests.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510043
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510043 (alternate)

3682. Self-averaging property of queuing systems

Author(s): Alexandre Rybko and Senya Shlosman and Alexandre Vladimirov

Abstract: We establish the averaging property for a queuing process with one server, M(t)/GI/1. It is a new relation between the output flow rate and the input flow rate, crucial in the study of the Poisson Hypothesis. Its implications include the statement that the output flow always possesses more regularity than the input flow.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510046
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510046 (alternate)

3683. The localized phase of disordered copolymers with adsorption

Author(s): G. Giacomin (1) and F. L. Toninelli (2) ((1) Universite' de Paris 7 and (2) ENS Lyon, UMR--CNRS 5672)

Abstract: We analyze the localized phase of a general model of a directed polymer in the proximity of an interface that separates two solvents. Each monomer unit carries a charge, $\omega_n$, that determines the type (attractive or repulsive) and the strength of its interaction with the solvents. In addition, there is a polymer--interface interaction and we want to model the case in which there are impurities $\tilde\omega_n$, that we call again charges, at the interface. The charges are distributed in an in--homogeneous fashion along the chain and at the interface: more precisely the model we consider is of quenched disordered type. It is well known that such a model undergoes a localization/delocalization transition. We focus on the localized phase, where the polymer sticks to the interface. Our new results include estimates on the exponential decay of averaged correlations and the proof that the free energy is infinitely differentiable away from the transition. Other results we prove, instead, generalize earlier works that typically deal either with the case of copolymers near an homogeneous interface ($\tilde\omega\equiv 0$) or with the case of disordered pinning, where the only polymer--environment interaction is at the interface ($\omega\equiv 0$). Moreover, with respect to most of the previous literature, we work with rather general distributions of charges (we will assume only a suitable concentration inequality).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510047
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510047 (alternate)

3684. On invariance of domains with smooth boundaries with respect to stochastic differential equations

Author(s): Vitalii A. Gasanenko

Abstract: We prove constructible sufficient conditions of lack of exit by solutions of stochastic differential Ito's equations from domains with smooth boundaries

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510077
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510077 (alternate)

3685. On a stochastic partial differential equation with non-local diffusion

Author(s): Pascal Azerad (I3M) and Mohamed Mellouk (I3M)

Abstract: In this paper, we prove existence, uniqueness and regularity for a class of stochastic partial differential equations with a fractional Laplacian driven by a space-time white noise in dimension one. The equation we consider may also include a reaction term.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510107
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0510107 (alternate)

3686. Random Walk in Dynamic Markovian Random Environment

Author(s): Antar Bandyopadhyay and Ofer Zeitouni

Abstract: We consider a model, introduced by Boldrighini, Minlos and Pellegrinotti, of random walks in dynamical random environments on the integer lattice Z^d with d>=1. In this model, the environment changes over time in a Markovian manner, independently across sites, while the walker uses the environment at its current location in order to make the next transition. In contrast with the cluster expansions approach of Boldrighini, Minlos and Pellegrinotti, we follow a probabilistic argument based on regeneration times. We prove an annealed SLLN and invariance principle for any dimension, and provide a quenched invariance principle for dimension d > 6, providing for d>6 an alternative to the analytical approach of Boldrighini, Minlos and Pellegrinotti, with the added benefit that it is valid under weaker assumptions. The quenched results use, in addition to the regeneration times already mentioned, a technique introduced by Bolthausen and Sznitman.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509066
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509066 (alternate)

3687. A Free Analogue of Shannon's Problem on Monotonicity of Entropy

Author(s): D. Shlyakhtenko

Abstract: We prove a free probability analog of a result of Artstein-Bally-Barthez-Naor. In particualar we prove that if X_{1},X_{2},... are freely independent identically distributed random variables, then the free entropy chi(X_{1}+...+X_{n}/\sqrt{n}) is monotone increasing for all n. Our proof also leads to a slight simplification of the original argument in the classical case.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510103
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0510103 (alternate)

3688. Tail asymptotics for the supremum of an independent subadditive process, with applications to monotone-separable networks

Author(s): Marc Lelarge

Abstract: Tail asymptotics for the supremum of an independent subadditive process are obtained as a function of the logarithmic moment generating function. We use this analysis to obtain large deviations results for queueing networks in their stationary regime. In the particular case of (max,plus)-linear recursions, the rate of exponential decay of the stationary solution can be explicitly computed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510117
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510117 (alternate)

3689. Entropic repulsion for a class of Gaussian interface models in high dimensions

Author(s): Noemi Kurt

Abstract: Consider the centered Gaussian field on the lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d,$ $d$ large enough, with covariances given by the inverse of $\sum_{j=k}^K q_j(-\Delta)^j,$ where $\Delta$ is the discrete Laplacian and $\{q_j\}_{k\leq j\leq K}$ is a polynomial satisfying certain additional conditions. We extend a previously known result to show that the probability that all spins are nonnegative on a box of side-length $N$ has an exponential decay at rate of order $N^{d-2k}\log{N}.$ We are able to explicitly compute the constant, which is given in terms of a higher-order capacity of the unit cube, analogous to the known result for the lattice free field.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510143
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510143 (alternate)

3690. q-Gaussian distributions. On calculus of meaures orthogonalizing q-Hermite Polynomials

Author(s): Pawe{\l} J. Szab{\l}owki

Abstract: We present some properties of measures orthogonalizing set of q-Hermite polynomials so called $q$-Gaussian measures. We also present an algorithm simmulating i.i.d. sequencs of random variables having $q$-Gaussian distribution.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510153
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510153 (alternate)

3691. Distribution of pseudo-critical temperatures and lack of self-averaging in disordered Poland-Scheraga models with different loop exponents

Author(s): Cecile Monthus and Thomas Garel

Abstract: According to recent progresses in the finite size scaling theory of disordered systems, thermodynamic observables are not self-averaging at critical points when the disorder is relevant in the Harris criterion sense. This lack of self-averageness at criticality is directly related to the distribution of pseudo-critical temperatures $T_c(i,L)$ over the ensemble of samples $(i)$ of size $L$. In this paper, we apply this analysis to disordered Poland-Scheraga models with different loop exponents $c$,corresponding to marginal and relevant disorder. In all cases, we numerically obtain a Gaussian histogram of pseudo-critical temperatures $T_c(i,L)$ with mean $T_c^{av}(L)$ and width $\Delta T_c(L)$. For the marginal case $c=1.5$ corresponding to two-dimensional wetting, both the width $\Delta T_c(L)$ and the shift $[T_c(\infty)-T_c^{av}(L)]$ decay as $L^{-1/2}$, so the exponent is unchanged ($\nu_{random}=2=\nu_{pure}$) but disorder is relevant and leads to non self-averaging at criticality. For relevant disorder $c=1.75$, the width $\Delta T_c(L)$ and the shift $[T_c(\infty)-T_c^{av}(L)]$ decay with the same new exponent $L^{-1/\nu_{random}}$ (where $\nu_{random} \sim 2.7 > 2 > \nu_{pure}$) and there is again no self-averaging at criticality. Finally for the value $c=2.15$, of interest in the context of DNA denaturation, the transition is first-order in the pure case. In the presence of disorder, the width $\Delta T_c(L) \sim L^{-1/2}$ dominates over the shift $[T_c(\infty)-T_c^{av}(L)] \sim L^{-1}$, i.e. there are two correlation length exponents $\nu=2$ and $\tilde \nu=1$ that govern respectively the averaged/typical loop distribution.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0509479
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0509479 (alternate)

3692. Partial fillup and search time in LC tries

Author(s): Svante Janson and Wojciech Szpankowski

Abstract: Andersson and Nilsson introduced in 1993 a level-compressed trie (in short: LC trie) in which a full subtree of a node is compressed to a single node of degree being the size of the subtree. Recent experimental results indicated a 'dramatic improvement' when full subtrees are replaced by partially filled subtrees. In this paper, we provide a theoretical justification of these experimental results showing, among others, a rather moderate improvement of the search time over the original LC tries. For such an analysis, we assume that n strings are generated independently by a binary memoryless source with p denoting the probability of emitting a 1. We first prove that the so called alpha-fillup level (i.e., the largest level in a trie with alpha fraction of nodes present at this level) is concentrated on two values with high probability. We give these values explicitly up to O(1), and observe that the value of alpha (strictly between 0 and 1) does not affect the leading term. This result directly yields the typical depth (search time) in the alpha-LC tries with p not equal to 1/2, which turns out to be C loglog n for an explicitly given constant C (depending on p but not on alpha). This should be compared with recently found typical depth in the original LC tries which is C' loglog n for a larger constant C'. The search time in alpha-LC tries is thus smaller but of the same order as in the original LC tries.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cs/0510017
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.DS/0510017 (alternate)

3693. From Gumbel to Tracy-Widom

Author(s): Kurt Johansson

Abstract: The Tracy-Widom distribution that has been much studied in recent years can be thought of as an extreme value distribution. We discuss interpolation between the classical extreme value distribution $\exp(-\exp(-x))$, the Gumbel distribution and the Tracy-Widom distribution. There is a family of determinantal processes whose edge behaviour interpolates between a Poisson process with density $\exp(-x)$ and the Airy kernel point process. This process can be obtained as a scaling limit of a grand canonical version of a random matrix model introduced by Moshe, Neuberger and Shapiro. We also consider the deformed GUE ensemble, $M=M_0+\sqrt{2S} V$, with $M_0$ diagobal with independent elements and $V$ from GUE. Here we do not see a transition from Tracy-Widom to Gumbel, but rather a transition from Tracy-Widom to Gaussian.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510181
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510181 (alternate)

3694. Self-Intersection Times for Random Walk, and Random Walk in Random Scenery

Author(s): Amine Asselah (LATP) and Fabienne Castell (LATP)

Abstract: We consider Random Walk in Random Scenery, denoted $X\_n$, where the random walk is symmetric on $Z^d$, with $d>4$, and the random field is made up of i.i.d random variables with a stretched exponential tail decay, with exponent $\alpha$ with $1<\alpha$. We present asymptotics for the probability, over both randomness, that $\{X\_n>n^{\beta}\}$ for $1/2<\beta<1$. To obtain such asymptotics, we establish large deviations estimates for the the self-intersection local times process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510190
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510190 (alternate)

3695. Random matrices and determinantal processes

Author(s): Kurt Johansson

Abstract: We survey recent results on determinantal processes, random growth, random tilings and their relation to random matrix theory.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0510038
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0510038 (alternate)

3696. Quantum Diffusion, Measurement and Filtering

Author(s): V.P.Belavkin

Abstract: A brief presentation of the basic concepts in quantum probability theory is given in comparison to the classical one. The notion of quantum white noise, its explicit representation in Fock space, and necessary results of noncommutative stochastic analysis and integration are outlined. Algebraic differential equations that unify the quantum non Markovian diffusion with continuous non demolition observation are derived. A stochastic equation of quantum diffusion filtering generalising the classical Markov filtering equation to the quantum flows over arbitrary *-algebra is obtained. A Gaussian quantum diffusion with one dimensional continuous observation is considered.The a posteriori quantum state difusion in this case is reduced to a linear quantum stochastic filter equation of Kalman-Bucy type and to the operator Riccati equation for quantum correlations. An example of continuous nondemolition observation of the coordinate of a free quantum particle is considered, describing a continuous collase to the stationary solution of the linear quantum filtering problem found in the paper.

http://arXiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0510028
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/quant-ph/0510028 (alternate)

3697. The bi-Poisson process: a quadratic harness

Author(s): Wlodzimierz Bryc and Wojciech Matysiak and Jacek Wesolowski

Abstract: This paper is a continuation of our previous research on quadratic harnesses, i.e. processes with linear regressions and quadratic conditional variances. In this paper we define the class of orthogonal polynomials that is a two-parameter extension of the Al-Salam--Chihara polynomials, we derive a relation between these polynomials for different values of parameters, and we use the relation to construct a new class of quadratic harnesses. A special case of our construction is a simple transformation of a linear pure-birth process with immigration followed by a linear pure death process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510208
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510208 (alternate)

3698. Markov chains in a Dirichlet Environment and hypergeometric integrals

Author(s): Christophe Sabot (UMPA-ENSL)

Abstract: The aim of this text is to establish some relations between Markov chains in Dirichlet Environments on directed graphs and certain hypergeometric integrals associated with a particular arrangement of hyperplanes. We deduce from these relations and the computation of the connexion obtained by moving one hyperplane of the arrangement some new relations on important functionals of the Markov chain.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510236
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510236 (alternate)

3699. Large deviations for the zero set of an analytic function with diffusing coefficients

Author(s): J. Ben Hough

Abstract: The "hole probability" that the zero set of the time dependent planar Gaussian analytic function f(z,t) = sum_(n=0)^infty a_n(t) z^n/sqrt(n!), where a_n(t) are i.i.d. complex valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, does not intersect a disk of radius R for all 0

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510237
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510237 (alternate)

3700. Distributional transformations, orthogonal polynomials, and Stein characterizations

Author(s): Larry Goldstein and Gesine Reinert

Abstract: A new class of distributional transformations is introduced, characterized by equations relating function weighted expectations of test functions on a given distribution to expectations of the transformed distribution on the test function's higher order derivatives. The class includes the size and zero bias transformations, and when specializing to weighting by polynomial functions, relates distributional families closed under independent addition, and in particular the infinitely divisible distributions, to the family of transformations induced by their associated orthogonal polynomial systems. For these families, generalizing a well known property of size biasing, sums of independent variables are transformed by replacing summands chosen according to a multivariate distribution on its index set by independent variables whose distributions are transformed by members of that same family. A variety of the transformations associated with the classical orthogonal polynomial systems have as fixed points the original distribution, or a member of the same family with different parameter.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510240
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510240 (alternate)

3701. Two choice optimal stopping

Author(s): David Assaf and Larry Goldstein and Ester Samuel-Cahn

Abstract: Let $X_n,...,X_1$ be i.i.d. random variables with distribution function $F$. A statistician, knowing $F$, observes the $X$ values sequentially and is given two chances to choose $X$'s using stopping rules. The statistician's goal is to stop at a value of $X$ as small as possible. Let $V_n^2$ equal the expectation of the smaller of the two values chosen by the statistician when proceeding optimally. We obtain the asymptotic behavior of the sequence $V_n^2$ for a large class of $F$'s belonging to the domain of attraction (for the minimum) ${\cal D}(G^\alpha)$, where $G^\alpha(x)=[1-\exp(-x^\alpha)]{\bf I}(x \ge 0)$. The results are compared with those for the asymptotic behavior of the classical one choice value sequence $V_n^1$, as well as with the ``prophet value" sequence $V_n^p=E(\min\{X_n,...,X_1\})$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510242
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510242 (alternate)

3702. Deviations bounds and conditional principles for thin sets

Author(s): Patrick Cattiaux (MODAL'X and CMAP) and Nathael Gozlan (MODAL'X)

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to use non asymptotic bounds for the probability of rare events in the Sanov theorem, in order to study the asymptotics in conditional limit theorems (Gibbs conditioning principle for thin sets). Applications to stochastic mechanics or calibration problems for diffusion processes are discussed.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510257
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510257 (alternate)

3703. Hypercontractivity for perturbed diffusion semigroups

Author(s): Patrick Cattiaux (MODAL'X and CMAP)

Abstract: $\mu$ being a nonnegative measure satisfying some log-Sobolev inequality, we give conditions on F for the measure $\nu=e^{-2F} \mu$ to also satisfy some log-Sobolev inequality. Explicit examples are studied.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510258
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510258 (alternate)

3704. Current large deviations for Asymmetric Exclusion Processes with open boundaries

Author(s): T. Bodineau and B. Derrida

Abstract: We study the large deviation functional of the current for the Weakly Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process in contact with two reservoirs.We compare this functional in the large drift limit to the one of the Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process, in particular to the Jensen-Varadhan functional. Conjectures for generalizing the Jensen-Varadhan functional to open systems are also stated.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0509179
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0509179 (alternate)

3705. Lower Limits and Equivalences for Convolution Tails

Author(s): Serguei Foss and Dmitry Korshunov

Abstract: Suppose $F$ is a distribution on the half-line $[0,\infty)$. We study the limits of the ratios of tails $\bar{F*F}(x)/\bar F(x)$ as $x\to\infty$. We also discuss the classes of distributions ${\mathcal S}$, ${\mathcal S}(\gamma)$, and ${\mathcal S}^*$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510273
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510273 (alternate)

3706. Recursive Partition Structures

Author(s): A.V. Gnedin and Yu. Yakubovich

Abstract: A class of random discrete distributions $P$ is introduced by means of a recursive splitting of unity. Assuming supercritical branching, we show that for partitions induced by sampling from such $P$ a power growth of the number of blocks is typical. Some known and some new partition structures appear when $P$ is induced by a Dirichlet splitting.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510305
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510305 (alternate)

3707. How fast is the bandit?

Author(s): Damien Lamberton (LAMA) and Gilles Pag\`{e}s (PMA)

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the rate of convergence of the so-called two-armed bandit algorithm in a financial context of asset allocation. The behaviour of the algorithm turns out to be highly non-standard: no CLT whatever the time scale, possible existence of two rate regimes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510351
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510351 (alternate)

3708. Organized versus self-organized criticality in the abelian sandpile model

Author(s): A. Fey-den Boer and F. Redig

Abstract: We define stabilizability of an infinite volume height configuration and of a probability measure on height configurations. We show that for high enough densities, a probability measure cannot be stabilized. We also show that in some sense the thermodynamic limit of the uniform measures on the recurrent configurations of the abelian sandpile model (ASM) is a maximal element of the set of stabilizable measures. In that sense the self-organized critical behavior of the ASM can be understood in terms of an ordinary transition between stabilizable and non-stabilizable

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0510060
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0510060 (alternate)

3709. What does a generic Markov operator look like

Author(s): A.Vershik

Abstract: We consider generic i.e., forming an everywhere dense massive subset classes of Markov operators in the space $L^2(X,\mu)$ with a finite continuous measure. Since there is a canonical correspondence that associates with each Markov operator a multivalued measure-preserving transformation (i.e., a polymorphism), as well as a stationary Markov chain, we can also speak about generic polymorphisms and generic Markov chains. The most important and inexpected generic properties of Markov operators (or Markov chains or polymorphisms) is nonmixing and totally nondeterministicity. It was not known even existence of such Markov operators (the first example due to M.Rozenblatt). We suppose that this class coinsided with the class of special random perturbations of $K$-automorphisms. This theory is measure theoretic counterpart of the theory of nonselfadjoint contractions and its application.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510320
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.FA/0510320 (alternate)

3710. Rounding of continuous random variables and oscillatory asymptotics

Author(s): Svante Janson

Abstract: Let X be a continuous random variable. We study the characteristic function and moments of the integer-valued random variable obtained by rounding X+a to the nearest smallest integer, where a is a constant. The results can be regarded as exact versions of Sheppard's correction. Rounded variables of this type often occur as subsequence limits of sequences of integer-valued random variable. This leads to oscillatory terms in asymptotics for these variables, something that often has been observed, for example in the analysis of several algorithms. We give some examples, including applications to tries, digital search trees and Patricia tries.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509009
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509009 (alternate)

3711. Absolutely continuous, invariant measures for dissipative, ergodic transformations

Author(s): Jon. Aaronson and Tom Meyerovitch

Abstract: We show that a dissipative, ergodic measure preserving transformation of a sigma-finite, non-atomic measure space always has many non-proportional, absolutely continuous, invariant measures and is ergodic with respect to each one of these.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509093
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0509093 (alternate)

3712. A theorem on majorizing measures

Author(s): Witold Bednorz

Abstract: We prove that whenever there exists a majroizing measure on the metric space, then each process with bounded increments has necessarily bounded samples. This is a strengthening of one the main results in Talagrand's paper "Sample boundedness of stochastic processes under increment conditions".

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510373
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510373 (alternate)

3713. A penalized bandit algorithm

Author(s): Damien Lamberton (LAMA) and Gilles Pag\`{e}s (PMA)

Abstract: We study a two armed-bandit algorithm with penalty. We show the convergence of the algorithm and establish the rate of convergence. For some choices of the parameters, we obtain a central limit theorem in which the limit distribution is characterized as the unique stationary distribution of a discontinuous Markov process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510384
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510384 (alternate)

3714. Phase Transition in the Aldous-Shields Model of Growing Trees

Author(s): Davis S. Dean and Satya N. Majumdar

Abstract: We study analytically the late time statistics of the number of particles in a growing tree model introduced by Aldous and Shields. In this model, a cluster grows in continuous time on a binary Cayley tree, starting from the root, by absorbing new particles at the empty perimeter sites at a rate proportional to c^{-l} where c is a positive parameter and l is the distance of the perimeter site from the root. For c=1, this model corresponds to random binary search trees and for c=2 it corresponds to digital search trees in computer science. By introducing a backward Fokker-Planck approach, we calculate the mean and the variance of the number of particles at large times and show that the variance undergoes a `phase transition' at a critical value c=sqrt{2}. While for c>sqrt{2} the variance is proportional to the mean and the distribution is normal, for c

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0510429
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0510429 (alternate)

3715. Ballistic Random Walk in a Random Environment with a Forbidden Direction

Author(s): F. Rassoul-Agha and T. Seppalainen

Abstract: We consider a ballistic random walk in an i.i.d. random environment that does not allow retreating in a certain fixed direction. Homogenization and regeneration techniques combine to prove a law of large numbers and an averaged invariance principle. The assumptions are non-nestling and $1+\e$ (resp.\ $2+\e$) moments for the step of the walk uniformly in the environment, for the law of large numbers (resp. invariance principles). We also investigate invariance principles under fixed environments, and invariance principles for the environment-dependent mean of the walk.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510392
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510392 (alternate)

3716. A Model for the Bus System in Cuernevaca (Mexico)

Author(s): Jinho Baik and Alexei Borodin and Percy Deift and Toufic Suidan

Abstract: The bus transportation system in Cuernevaca, Mexico, has certain distinguished, innovative features and has been the subject of an intriguing, recent study by M. Krbalek and P. Seba. Krbalek and Seba analyzed the statistics of bus arrivals on Line 4 close to the city center. They studied, in particular, the bus spacing distribution and also the bus number variance measuring the fluctuations of the total number of buses arriving at a fixed location during a time interval T. Quite remarkably, it was found that these two statistics are well modeled by the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE) of random matrix theory. Our goal in this paper is to provide a plausible explanation of these observations, and to this end we introduce a microscopic model for the bus line that leads simply and directly to GUE.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510414
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510414 (alternate)

3717. The Onset of Dominance in Balls-in-Bins Processes with Feedback

Author(s): Roberto Oliveira and Joel Spencer

Abstract: Consider a balls-in-bins process in which each new ball goes into a given bin with probability proportional to $f(n)$, where $n$ is the number of balls currently in the bin and $f$ is a fixed positive function. It is known that these so-called {\em balls-in-bins processes with feedback} have a monopolistic regime: if $f(x)=x^p$ for $p>1$, then there is a finite time after which one of the bins will receive all incoming balls. Our goal in this paper is to quantify the onset of monopoly. We show that the initial number of balls is large and bin 1 starts with a fraction $\alpha>1/2$ of the balls, then with very high probability its share of the total number of balls never decreases significantly below $\alpha$. Thus a bin that obtains more than half of the balls at a "large time" will most likely preserve its position of leadership. However, the probability that the winning bin has a non-negligible advantage after $n$ balls are in the system is $\sim{const.}\times n^{1-p}$, and the number of balls in the losing bin has a power-law tail. Similar results also hold for more general functions $f$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510415
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510415 (alternate)

3718. Countable state shifts and uniqueness of g-measures

Author(s): Anders Johansson and Anders \"Oberg and Mark Pollicott

Abstract: In this paper we present a new approach to studying g-measures which is based upon local absolute continuity. We extend the result in [11] that square summability of variations of g-functions ensures uniqueness of g-measures. The first extension is to the case of countably many symbols. The second extension is to some cases where $g \geq 0$, relaxing the earlier requirement in [11] that inf g>0.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509109
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0509109 (alternate)

3719. An error bound in the Sudakov-Fernique inequality

Author(s): Sourav Chatterjee

Abstract: We obtain an asymptotically sharp error bound in the classical Sudakov-Fernique comparison inequality for finite collections of gaussian random variables. Our proof is short and self-contained, and gives an easy alternative argument for the classical inequality, extended to the case of non-centered processes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510424
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510424 (alternate)

3720. Estimates for the density of a nonlinear Landau process

Author(s): H\'{e}l\`{e}ne Gu\'{e}rin (IRMAR) and Sylvie M\'{e}l\'{e}ard (MODAL'X) and Eulalia Nualart (LAGA)

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to obtain estimates for the density of the law of a specific nonlinear diffusion process at any positive bounded time. This process is issued from kinetic theory and is called Landau process, by analogy with the associated deterministic Fokker-Planck-Landau equation. It is not Markovian, its coefficients are not bounded and the diffusion matrix is degenerate. Nevertheless, the specific form of the diffusion matrix and the nonlinearity imply the non-degeneracy of the Malliavin matrix and then the existence and smoothness of the density. In order to obtain a lower bound for the density, the known results do not apply. However, our approach follows the main idea consisting in discretizing the interval time and developing a recursive method. To this aim, we prove and use refined results on conditional Malliavin calculus. The lower bound implies the positivity of the solution of the Landau equation, and partially answers to an analytical conjecture. We also obtain an upper bound for the density, which again leads to an unusual estimate due to the bad behavior of the coefficients.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510439
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510439 (alternate)

3721. Connectivity transitions in networks with super-linear preferential attachment

Author(s): Roberto Oliveira and Joel Spencer

Abstract: We analyze an evolving network model of Krapivsky and Redner in which new nodes arrive sequentially, each connecting to a previously existing node b with probability proportional to the p-th power of the in-degree of b. We restrict to the super-linear case p>1. When 1+1/k< p \leq 1 + 1/(k-1) the structure of the final countable tree is determined. There is a finite tree T with distinguished v (which has a limiting distribution) on which is "glued" a specific infinite tree. v has an infinite number of children, an infinite number of which have k-1 children, and there are only a finite number of nodes (possibly only v) with k or more children. Our basic technique is to embed the discrete process in a continuous time process using exponential random variables, a technique that has previously been employed in the study of balls-in-bins processes with feedback.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510446
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510446 (alternate)

3722. Individual-based probabilistic models of adaptive evolution and various scaling approximations

Author(s): Nicolas Champagnat (MODAL'X) and R\'{e}gis Ferri\`{e}re and Sylvie M\'{e}l\'{e}ard (MODAL'X)

Abstract: We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population of discrete individuals characterized by one or several adaptive traits. The population is modelled as a stochastic point process whose generator captures the probabilistic dynamics over continuous time of birth, mutation, and death, as influenced by each individual's trait values, and interactions between individuals. An offspring usually inherits the trait values of her progenitor, except when a mutation causes the offspring to take an instantaneous mutation step at birth to new trait values. We look for tractable large population approximations. By combining various scalings on population size, birth and death rates, mutation rate, mutation step, or time, a single microscopic model is shown to lead to contrasting macroscopic limits, of different nature: deterministic, in the form of ordinary, integro-, or partial differential equations, or probabilistic, like stochastic partial differential equations or superprocesses. In the limit of rare mutations, we show that a possible approximation is a jump process, justifying rigorously the so-called trait substitution sequence. We thus unify different points of view concerning mutation-selection evolutionary models.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510453
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510453 (alternate)

3723. Fundamental Markov systems

Author(s): Ivan Werner

Abstract: We continue development of the theory of Markov systems initiated in \cite{Wer1}. In this paper, we introduce fundamental Markov systems associated with random dynamical systems.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509120
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509120 (alternate)

3724. Counting without sampling. New algorithms for enumeration problems using statistical physics

Author(s): Antar Bandyopadhyay and David Gamarnik

Abstract: We propose a new type of approximate counting algorithms for the problems of enumerating the number of independent sets and proper colorings in low degree graphs with large girth. Our algorithms are not based on a commonly used Markov chain technique, but rather are inspired by developments in statistical physics in connection with correlation decay properties of Gibbs measures and its implications to uniqueness of Gibbs measures on infinite trees, reconstruction problems and local weak convergence methods. On a negative side, our algorithms provide $\epsilon$-approximations only to the logarithms of the size of a feasible set (also known as free energy in statistical physics). But on the positive side, our approach provides deterministic as opposed to probabilistic guarantee on approximations. Moreover, for some regular graphs we obtain explicit values for the counting problem. For example, we show that every 4-regular $n$-node graph with large girth has approximately $(1.494...)^n$ independent sets, and in every $r$-regular graph with $n$ nodes and large girth the number of $q\geq r+1$-proper colorings is approximately $[q(1-{1\over q})^{r\over 2}]^n$, for large $n$. In statistical physics terminology, we compute explicitly the limit of the log-partition function. We extend our results to random regular graphs. Our explicit results would be hard to derive via the Markov chain method.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510471
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510471 (alternate)

3725. Pathwise uniqueness for two dimensional reflecting Brownian motion in Lipschitz domains

Author(s): Richard F. Bass and Krzysztof Burdzy

Abstract: We give a simple proof that in a Lipschitz domain in two dimensions with Lipschitz constant one, there is pathwise uniqueness for the Skorokhod equation governing reflecting Brownian motion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510473
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510473 (alternate)

3726. Binomial-Poisson entropic inequalities and the M/M/$\infty$ queue

Author(s): Djalil Chafai (LSProba and Umr181 Inra/Envt)

Abstract: This article provides entropic inequalities for binomial-Poisson distributions, derived from the two points space. They describe in particular the exponential dissipation of $\Phi$-entropies along the M/M/$\infty$ queue. This simple queueing process appears as a model of "constant curvature", and plays for the simple Poisson process the role played by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for Brownian Motion. These inequalities are exactly the local inequalities of the M/M/$\infty$ process. Some of them are recovered by semigroup interpolation. Additionally, we explore the behaviour of these entropic inequalities under a particular scaling, which sees the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a fluid limit of M/M/$\infty$ queues. Proofs are elementary and rely essentially on the development of a "$\Phi$-calculus".

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510488
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510488 (alternate)

3727. On Solutions of First Order Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

Author(s): K. Hamza and F. C. Klebaner

Abstract: This note is concerned with an important for modelling question of existence of solutions of stochastic partial differential equations as proper stochastic processes, rather than processes in the generalized sense. We consider a first order stochastic partial differential equations of the form $\pd Ut = DW$, and $\pd Ut-\pd Ux= DW$, where $D$ is a differential operator and $W(t,x)$ is a continuous but non-differentiable function (field). We give a necessary and sufficient condition for stochastic equations to have solutions as functions. The result is then applied to the equation for a yield curve. Proofs are based on probability arguments.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510495
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510495 (alternate)

3728. Options on Hedge Funds under the High Water Mark Rule

Author(s): Marc Atlan (PMA) and H\'{e}lyette Geman (DRM) and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: The rapidly growing hedge fund industry has provided individual and institutional investors with new investment vehicles and styles of management. It has also brought forward a new form of performance contract: hedge fund managers receive incentive fees which are typically a fraction of the fund net asset value (NAV) above its starting level - a rule known as high water mark. Options on hedge funds are becoming increasingly popular, in particular because they allow investors with limited capital to get exposure to this new asset class. The goal of the paper is to propose a valuation of options on hedge funds which accounts for the high water market rule. Mathematically, this valuation will lead to an interesting use of local times of Brownian motion. Option prices are numerically computed by inversion of their Laplace transforms.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510497
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510497 (alternate)

3729. Another approach to Brownian motion

Author(s): Magda Peligrad and Sergey Utev

Abstract: Braverman, Mallows and Shepp (1995), showed that if the absolute moments of partial sums of i.i.d. symmetric variables are equal to those of normal variables, then the marginals have normal distribution. This fact suggested the conjecture that probably the absolute moments alone characterize the homogeneous process with independent increments. In this paper we prove a more general result that gives a positive answer to this conjecture, and then apply it in order to obtain the CLT for a class of dependent random variables under a normalization involving the absolute moments of partial sums.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510513
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510513 (alternate)

3730. A stochastic-variational model for soft Mumford-Shah segmentation

Author(s): Jianhong Shen

Abstract: In contemporary image and vision analysis, stochastic approaches demonstrate great flexibility in representing and modeling complex phenomena, while variational-PDE methods gain enormous computational advantages over Monte-Carlo or other stochastic algorithms. In combination, the two can lead to much more powerful novel models and efficient algorithms. In the current work, we propose a stochastic-variational model for soft (or fuzzy) Mumford-Shah segmentation of mixture image patterns. Unlike the classical hard Mumford-Shah segmentation, the new model allows each pixel to belong to each image pattern with some probability. We show that soft segmentation leads to hard segmentation, and hence is more general. The modeling procedure, mathematical analysis, and computational implementation of the new model are explored in detail, and numerical examples of synthetic and natural images are presented.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510485
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OC/0510485 (alternate)

3731. Slices of Brownian Sheet: New Results, and Open Problems

Author(s): Davar Khoshnevisan

Abstract: We can view Brownian sheet as a sequence of interacting Brownian motions or slices. Here we present a number of results about the slices of the sheet. A common feature of our results is that they exhibit phase transition. In addition, a number of open problems are presented.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510518
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510518 (alternate)

3732. Flows and ferromagnets

Author(s): Geoffrey Grimmett

Abstract: The two-point correlation function of a Potts model on a graph $G$ may be expressed in terms of the flow polynomials of `Poissonian' random graphs derived from $G$ by replacing each edge by a Poisson-distributed number of copies of itself. This fact extends to Potts models the so-called random-current expansion of the Ising model.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509127
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509127 (alternate)

3733. Phase transition asymptotics for random walks on a stationary random potential

Author(s): Gerard Ben Arous and Stanislav Molchanov and Alejandro F. Ramirez

Abstract: We describe a universal transition mechanism characterizing the passage to an annealed behavior and to a regime where the fluctuations about this behavior are Gaussian, for the long time asymptotics of the empirical average of the expected value of the number of random walks which branch and annihilate on ${\mathbb Z}^d$, with stationary random rates. The random walks are independent, continuous time rate $2d\kappa$, simple, symmetric, with $\kappa \ge 0$. A random walk at $x\in{\mathbb Z}^d$, binary branches at rate $v_+(x)$, and annihilates at rate $v_-(x)$. The random environment $w$ has coordinates $w(x)=(v_-(x),v_+(x))$ which are i.i.d. We identify a natural way to describe the annealed-Gaussian transition mechanism under mild conditions on the rates. Indeed, we introduce the exponents $F_\theta(t):=\frac{H_1((1+\theta)t)-(1+\theta)H_1(t)}{\theta}$, and assume that $\frac{F_{2\theta}(t)-F_\theta(t)}{\theta\log(\kappa t+e)}\to\infty$ for $|\theta|>0$ small enough, where $H_1(t):=\log < m(0,t)>$ and $$ denotes the average of the expected value of the number of particles $m(0,t,w)$ at time $t$ and an environment of rates $w$, given that initially there was only one particle at 0. Then the empirical average of $m(x,t,w)$ over a box of side $L(t)$ has different behaviors: if $ L(t)\ge e^{\frac{1}{d} F_\epsilon(t)}$ for some $\epsilon >0$ and large enough $t$, a law of large numbers is satisfied; if $ L(t)\ge e^{\frac{1}{d} F_\epsilon (2t)}$ for some $\epsilon>0$ and large enough $t$, a CLT is satisfied. These statements are violated if the reversed inequalities are satisfied for some negative $\epsilon$. Applications to potentials with Weibull, Frechet and double exponential tails are given.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510519
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510519 (alternate)

3734. Majorizing multiplicative cascades for directed polymers in random media

Author(s): Francis Comets (PMA) and Vincent Vargas (PMA)

Abstract: In this note we give upper bounds for the free energy of discrete polymers in random media. The bounds are given by the so-called generalized multiplicative cascades from the statistical theory of turbulence. For the polymer model, we derive that the quenched free energy is different from the annealed one in dimension 1, for any finite temperature and general environment. This implies localization of the polymer.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510525
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510525 (alternate)

3735. Limiting laws associated with Brownian motion perturbated by normalized exponential weights I

Author(s): Bernard Roynette (IEC) and Pierre Vallois (IEC) and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: We determine the rate of decay of the expectation Z(t) of some multiplicative functional related to Brownian motion up to time t. This permits to prove that the Wiener measure, penalized by this multiplicative functional, converges as t goes to infinity to a probability measure (p.m.) . We obtain the law of the canonical process under this new p.m.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510550
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510550 (alternate)

3736. A trace theorem for Dirichlet forms on fractals

Author(s): Masanori Hino and Takashi Kumagai

Abstract: We consider a trace theorem for self-similar Dirichlet forms on self-similar sets to self-similar subsets. In particular, we characterize the trace of the domains of Dirichlet forms on the Sierpinski gaskets and the Sierpinski carpets to their boundaries, where boundaries mean the triangles and rectangles which confine gaskets and carpets. As an application, we construct diffusion processes on a collection of fractals called fractal fields, which behave as the appropriate fractal diffusion within each fractal component of the field.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510553
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510553 (alternate)

3737. The critical Branching Markov Chain is transient

Author(s): Nina Gantert and Sebastian Mueller

Abstract: We investigate recurrence and transience of Branching Markov Chains (BMC) in discrete time. Branching Markov Chains are clouds of particles which move (according to an irreducible underlying Markov Chain) and produce offspring independently. The offspring distribution can depend on the location of the particle. If the offspring distribution is constant for all locations, these are Tree-Indexed Markov chains in the sense of \cite{benjamini94}. Starting with one particle at location $x$, we denote by $\alpha(x)$ the probability that $x$ is visited infinitely often by the cloud. Due to the irreducibility of the underlying Markov Chain, there are three regimes: either $\alpha(x) = 0$ for all $x$ (transient regime), or $0 < \alpha(x) < 1$ for all $x$ (weakly recurrent regime) or $\alpha(x) = 1$ for all $x$ (strongly recurrent regime). We give classification results, including a sufficient condition for transience in the general case. If the mean of the offspring distribution is constant, we give a criterion for transience involving the spectral radius of the underlying Markov Chain and the mean of the offspring distribution.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510556
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510556 (alternate)

3738. Winning rate in the full-information best choice problem

Author(s): Alexander Gnedin and Denis Miretskiy

Abstract: Following a long-standing suggestion by Gilbert and Mosteller, we derive an explicit formula for the asymptotic winning rate in the full-information problem of the best choice.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510568
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510568 (alternate)

3739. Limiting laws associated with Brownian motion perturbed by its maximum, minmum and local time II

Author(s): Bernard Roynette (IEC) and Pierre Vallois (IEC) and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: We obtain probability measures on the canonical space penalizing the Wiener measure by a function of its maximum (resp. minimum, local time). We study the law of the canonical process under these new probability measures.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510575
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510575 (alternate)

3740. A note on the Harris-Kesten Theorem

Author(s): Bela Bollobas and Ronald Meester and Oliver Riordan

Abstract: Recently, a short proof of the Harris-Kesten result that the critical probability for bond percolation in the planar square lattice is 1/2 was given, using a sharp threshold result of Friedgut and Kalai. Here we point out that a key part of this proof may be replaced by an argument of Russo from 1982, using his approximate zero-one law in place of the Friedgut-Kalai result. Russo's paper gave a new proof of the Harris-Kesten Theorem that seems to have received little attention.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509131
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509131 (alternate)

3741. Multivariate normal approximations by Stein's method and size bias couplings

Author(s): Larry Goldstein and Yosef Rinott

Abstract: Stein's method is used to obtain two theorems on multivariate normal approximation. Our main theorem, Theorem 1.2, provides a bound on the distance to normality for any nonnegative random vector. Theorem 1.2 requires multivariate size bias coupling, which we discuss in studying the approximation of distributions of sums of dependent random vectors. In the univariate case, we briefly illustrate this approach for certain sums of nonlinear functions of multivariate normal variables. As a second illustration, we show that the multivariate distribution counting the number of vertices with given degrees in certain random graphs is asymptotically multivariate normal and obtain a bound on the rate of convergence. Both examples demonstrate that this approach may be suitable for situations involving non-local dependence. We also present Theorem 1.4 for sums of vectors having a local type of dependence. We apply this theorem to obtain a multivariate normal approximation for the distribution of the random $p$-vector which counts the number of edges in a fixed graph both of whose vertices have the same given color when each vertex is colored by one of $p$ colors independently. All normal approximation results presented here do not require an ordering of the summands related to the dependence structure. This is in contrast to hypotheses of classical central limit theorems and examples, which involve e.g., martingale, Markov chain, or various mixing assumptions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510586
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510586 (alternate)

3742. An unexpected connection between branching processes and optimal stopping

Author(s): David Assaf and Larry Goldstein and and Ester Samuel-Cahn

Abstract: A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process $Z_n$ with offspring distribution $Y$, there exists a random variable $X$ such that the probability $P(Z_n=0)$ of extinction of the $n$th generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence $X_1,...,X_n$, where these variables are i.i.d distributed as $X$. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple `stopping rule' method for computing various characteristics of branching processes, including rates of convergence of the $n^{th}$ generation's extinction probability to the eventual extinction probability, for the supercritical, critical and subcritical Galton-Watson process. Examples, bounds, further generalizations and a connection to classical prophet inequalities are presented. Throughout, the aim is to show how this unexpected connection can be used to translate methods from one area of applied probability to another, rather than to provide the most general results.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510587
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510587 (alternate)

3743. Overcrowding estimates for zeroes of Planar and Hyperbolic Gaussian analytic functions

Author(s): Manjunath Krishnapur

Abstract: We consider the point process of zeroes of certain Gaussian analytic functions and find the asymptotics for the probability that there are more than m points of the process in a fixed disk of radius r, as m-->infinity. For the Planar Gaussian analytic function, sum_n a_n z^n/sqrt(n!), we show that this probability is asymptotic to exp(-0.5 m^2 log(m)). For the Hyperbolic Gaussian analytic functions, sum_n sqrt({-rho choose n}) a_n z^n, rho>0, we show that this probability decays like exp(-cm^2). In the planar case, we also consider the problem posed by Mikhail Sodin on moderate and very large deviations in a disk of radius r as r --> infinity. We partly solve the problem by showing that there is a qualitative change in the asymptotics of the probability as we move from the large deviation regime to the moderate.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510588
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510588 (alternate)

3744. A large deviation approach to some transportation cost inequalities

Author(s): Nathael Gozlan (MODAL'X) and Christian L\'{e}onard (MODAL'X and CMAP)

Abstract: New transportation cost inequalities are derived by means of elementary large deviation reasonings. Their dual characterization is proved; this provides an extension of a well-known result of S. Bobkov and F. G\"{o}tze. Their tensorization properties are investigated. Sufficient conditions (and necessary conditions too) for these inequalities are stated in terms of the integrability of the reference measure. Applying these results leads to new deviation results: concentration of measure and deviations of empirical processes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510601
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510601 (alternate)

3745. Monte Carlo comparisons of the self-avoiding walk and SLE as parameterized curves

Author(s): Tom Kennedy

Abstract: The scaling limit of the two-dimensional self-avoiding walk (SAW) is believed to be given by the Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE) with the parameter kappa equal to 8/3. The scaling limit of the SAW has a natural parameterization and SLE has a standard parameterization using the half-plane capacity. These two parameterizations do not correspond with one another. To make the scaling limit of the SAW and SLE agree as parameterized curves, we must reparameterize one of them. We present Monte Carlo results that show that if we reparameterize the SAW using the half-plane capacity, then it agrees well with SLE with its standard parameterization. We then consider how to reparameterize SLE to make it agree with the SAW with its natural parameterization. We argue using Monte Carlo results that the so-called p-variation of the SLE curve with p=1/nu=4/3 provides a parameterization that corresponds to the natural parameterization of the SAW.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510604
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510604 (alternate)

3746. Asymptotics for first-passage times on Delaunay triangulations

Author(s): Leandro P. R. Pimentel

Abstract: In this paper we study first-passge percolation models on Delaunay triangulations. We show a sufficient condition to ensure that the asymptotic value of the rescaled first-passage time, called the time constant, is strictly positive and derive some upper bounds for fluctuations. Our proofs are based on renormalization ideas and on the method of bounded increments.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510605
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510605 (alternate)

3747. Stein's method and the zero bias transformation with application to simple random sampling

Author(s): Larry Goldstein and Gesine Reinert

Abstract: Let $W$ be a random variable with mean zero and variance $\sigma^2$. The distribution of a variate $W^*$, satisfying $EWf(W)=\sigma ^2 Ef'(W^*)$ for smooth functions $f$, exists uniquely and defines the zero bias transformation on the distribution of $W$. The zero bias transformation shares many interesting properties with the well known size bias transformation for non-negative variables, but is applied to variables taking on both positive and negative values. The transformation can also be defined on more general random objects. The relation between the transformation and the expression $wf'(w)-\sigma^2 f''(w)$ which appears in the Stein equation characterizing the mean zero, variance $\sigma ^2$ normal $\sigma Z$ can be used to obtain bounds on the difference $E\{h(W/\sigma)-h(Z)\}$ for smooth functions $h$ by constructing the pair $(W,W^*)$ jointly on the same space. When $W$ is a sum of $n$ not necessarily independent variates, under certain conditions which include a vanishing third moment, bounds on this difference of the order $1/n$ for classes of smooth functions $h$ may be obtained. The technique is illustrated by an application to simple random sampling.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0510619
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0510619 (alternate)

3748. The Scaling Limit Geometry of Near-Critical 2D Percolation

Author(s): F. Camia and L. R. G. Fontes and C. M. Newman

Abstract: We analyze the geometry of scaling limits of near-critical 2D percolation, i.e., for $p=p_c+\lambda\delta^{1/\nu}$, with $\nu=4/3$, as the lattice spacing $\delta \to 0$. Our proposed framework extends previous analyses for $p=p_c$, based on $SLE_6$. It combines the continuum nonsimple loop process describing the full scaling limit at criticality with a Poissonian process for marking double (touching) points of that (critical) loop process. The double points are exactly the continuum limits of "macroscopically pivotal" lattice sites and the marked ones are those that actually change state as $\lambda$ varies. This structure is rich enough to yield a one-parameter family of near-critical loop processes and their associated connectivity probabilities as well as related processes describing, e.g., the scaling limit of 2D minimal spanning trees.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0510740
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0510740 (alternate)

3749. Dynamic State Tameness

Author(s): Jaime A. Londo\~no

Abstract: An extension of the idea of state tameness is presented in a dynamic framework. The proposed model for financial markets is rich enough to provide analytical tools that are mostly obtained in models that arise as the solution of SDEs with deterministic coefficients. In the presented model the augmentation by a shadow stock of the price evolution has a Markovian character. As in a previous paper, the results obtained on valuation of European contingent claims and American contingent claims do not require the full range of the volatility matrix. Under some additional continuity conditions, the conceptual framework provided by the model makes it possible to regard the valuation of financial instruments of the European type as a particular case of valuation of instruments of American type. This provides a unifying framework for the problem of valuation of financial instruments.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509139
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509139 (alternate)

3750. Splitting of liftings in products of probability spaces

Author(s): W. Strauss and N. D. Macheras and K. Musial

Abstract: We prove that if (X,\mathfrakA,P) is an arbitrary probability space with countably generated \sigma-algebra \mathfrakA, (Y,\mathfrakB,Q) is an arbitrary complete probability space with a lifting \rho and \hat R is a complete probability measure on \mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB determined by a regular conditional probability {S_y:y\in Y} on \mathfrakA with respect to \mathfrakB, then there exist a lifting \pi on (X\times Y,\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB,\hat R) and liftings \sigma_y on (X,\hat \mathfrakA_y,\hat S_y), y\in Y, such that, for every E\in\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB and every y\in Y, [\pi(E)]^y=\sigma_y\bigl([\pi(E)]^y\bigr). Assuming the absolute continuity of R with respect to P\otimes Q, we prove the existence of a regular conditional probability {T_y:y\in Y} and liftings \varpi on (X\times Y,\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB,\hat R), \rho' on (Y,\mathfrakB,\hat Q) and \sigma_y on (X,\hat \mathfrakA_y,\hat S_y), y\in Y, such that, for every E\in\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB and every y\in Y, [\varpi(E)]^y=\sigma_y\bigl([\varpi(E)]^y\bigr) and \varpi(A\times B)=\bigcup_{y\in\rho'(B)}\sigma_y(A)\times{y}\qquadif A\times B\in\mathfrakA\times\mathfrakB. Both results are generalizations of Musia\l, Strauss and Macheras [Fund. Math. 166 (2000) 281-303] to the case of measures which are not necessarily products of marginal measures. We prove also that liftings obtained in this paper always convert \hat R-measurable stochastic processes into their \hat R-measurable modifications.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509010
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509010 (alternate)

3751. Stationary Solutions of Stochastic Differential Equation with Memory and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

Author(s): Yuri Bakhtin and Jonathan C. Mattingly

Abstract: We explore Ito stochastic differential equations where the drift term possibly depends on the infinite past. Assuming the existence of a Lyapunov function, we prove the existence of a stationary solution assuming only minimal continuity of the coefficients. Uniqueness of the stationary solution is proven if the dependence on the past decays sufficiently fast. The results of this paper are then applied to stochastically forced dissipative partial differential equations such as the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation and stochastic Ginsburg-Landau equation.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509166
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509166 (alternate)

3752. Benford's law for the $3x+1$ function

Author(s): Jeffrey C. Lagarias and K. Soundararajan

Abstract: We show that for most choices of an initial seed $x_0$, the sequence of the first $N$ iterates of $x_0$ under the $3x+1$ map approximately satisfies Benford's law.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509175
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0509175 (alternate)

3753. Appendix to the paper "Random walks on free products of cyclic groups"

Author(s): Jean Mairesse and Fr\'ed\'eric Math\'eus

Abstract: This paper is an appendix to the paper "Random walks on free products of cyclic groups" by J.Mairesse and F.Math\'eus. It contains the details of the computations and the proofs of the results concerning the examples treated there.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509208
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509208 (alternate)

3754. Random walks on free products of cyclic groups

Author(s): Jean Mairesse and Fr\'ed\'eric Math'eus

Abstract: Let G be a free product of a finite family of finite groups, with the set of generators being formed by the union of the finite groups. We consider a transient nearest-neighbour random walk on G. We give a new proof of the fact that the harmonic measure is a special Markovian measure entirely determined by a finite set of polynomial equations. We show that in several simple cases of interest, the polynomial equations can be explicitely solved, to get closed form formulas for the drift. The examples considered are the modular group Z/2Z*Z/3Z, Z/3Z*Z/3Z, Z/kZ*Z/kZ, and the Hecke groups Z/2Z*Z/kZ. We also use these various examples to study Vershik's notion of extremal generators, which is based on the relation between the drift, the entropy, and the volume of the group.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509211
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509211 (alternate)

3755. Stochastic Volterra equations of nonscalar type

Author(s): Anna Karczewska

Abstract: In the paper stochastic Volterra equations of nonscalar type are studied using resolvent approach. The aim of this note is to provide some results on stochastic convolution and integral mild solutions to those Volterra equations. The motivation of the paper comes from a model of aging viscoelastic materials.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509012
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509012 (alternate)

3756. Percolation, Perimetry, Planarity

Author(s): Gady Kozma

Abstract: Let G be a planar graph with polynomial growth and isoperimetric dimension bigger than 1. Then the critical p for Bernoulli percolation on G satisfies p<1.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509235
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509235 (alternate)

3757. On the expansion of the giant component in percolated (n,d,\lambda) graphs

Author(s): Eran Ofek

Abstract: Let d be a sufficiently large constant. A (n,d,c sqrt{d}) graph G is a d regular graph over n vertices whose second largest eigenvalue (in absolute value) is at most c sqrt{d}. For any 0 < p < 1, G_p is the graph induced by retaining each edge of G with probability p. We show that for any p > 5c/sqrt{d} the graph G_p almost surely contains a unique giant component (a connected component with linear number vertices). We further show that the giant component of G_p almost surely has an edge expansion of at least 1/(log_2 n).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509253
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0509253 (alternate)

3758. Carne-Varopoulos bounds for centered random walks

Author(s): Pierre Mathieu

Abstract: We extend the Carne-Varopoulos upper bound on the probability transitions of a Markov chain to a certain class of non-reversible processes by introducing the definition of a `centering measure'. In the case of random walks on a group, we study the connections between different notions of centering.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0509257