Probability Abstracts 91

This document contains abstracts 3954-4109 from Jan-1-2006 to Feb-28-2006.
They have been mailed on March 1, 2006.

3954. Fluid limit of a heavily loaded EDF queue with impatient customers

Author(s): Laurent Decreusefond and Pascal Moyal

Abstract: In this paper we present the fluid limit of an heavily loaded Earliest Deadline First queue with impatient customers, represented by a measure-valued process keeping track of residual time-credits of lost and waiting customers. This fluid limit is the solution of an integrated transport equation. We then use this fluid limit to derive fluid approximations of the processes counting the number of waiting and already lost customers.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0512660
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0512660 (alternate)

3955. Analysis of disk scheduling, increasing subsequences and space-time geometry

Author(s): Eitan Bachmat

Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating the average tour length of the asymmetric TSP arising from the disk scheduling problem with a linear seek function and a probability distribution on the location of I/O requests. The optimal disk scheduling algorithm of Andrews, Bender and Zhang is interpreted as a simple peeling process on points in a 2 dimensional space-time w.r.t the causal structure. The patience sorting algorithm for finding the longest increasing subsequence in a permutation can be given a similar interpretation. Using this interpretation we show that the optimal tour length is the length of the maximal curve with respect to a Lorentzian metric on the surface of the disk drive. This length can be computed explicitly in some interesting cases. When the probability distribution is assumed uniform we provide finer asymptotics for the tour length. The interpretation also provides a better understanding of patience sorting and allows us to extend a result of Aldous and Diaconis on pile sizes

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601025
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OC/0601025 (alternate)

3956. Asymptotics of Bernoulli random walks, bridges, excursions and meanders with a given number of peaks

Author(s): Jean-Maxime Labarbe (LM-Versailles) and Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Marckert (LaBRI)

Abstract: A Bernoulli random walk is a random trajectory starting from 0 and having i.i.d. increments, each of them being $+1$ or -1, equally likely. The other families cited in the title are Bernoulli random walks under various conditionings. A peak in a trajectory is a local maximum. In this paper, we condition the families of trajectories to have a given number of peaks. We show that, asymptotically, the main effect of setting the number of peaks is to change the order of magnitude of the trajectories. The counting process of the peaks, that encodes the repartition of the peaks in the trajectories, is also studied. It is shown that suitably normalized, it converges to a Brownian bridge which is independent of the limiting trajectory. Applications in terms of plane trees and parallelogram polyominoes are also provided.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601624
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601624 (alternate)

3957. Thermal Conductivity for a Momentum Conserving Model

Author(s): Giada Basile (CEREMADE) and Cedric Bernardin (UMPA-ENSL) and Stefano Olla (CEREMADE)

Abstract: We present here complete mathematical proofs of the results announced in cond-mat/0509688. We introduce a model whose thermal conductivity diverges in dimension 1 and 2, while it remains finite in dimension 3. We consider a system of harmonic oscillators perturbed by a stochastic dynamics conserving momentum and energy. We compute the nite-size thermal conductivity via Green-Kubo formula. In the limit as the size N of the system goes to in nity, conductivity diverges like N in dimension 1 and like lnN in dimension 2. Conductivity remains finite if dimesion is 3 or higher or if a pinning (on site potential) is present.

http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0601544
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0601544 (alternate)

3958. Structure Theorem for (d,g,h)-Maps

Author(s): Alex V. Kontorovich and Yakov G. Sinai

Abstract: The (3x+1)-Map, T, acts on the set, Pi, of positive integers not divisible by 2 or 3. It is defined by T(x) = (3x+1)/2^k, where k is the largest integer for which T(x) is an integer. The (3x+1)-Conjecture asks if for every x in Pi there exists an integer, n, such that T^n (x) = 1. The Statistical (3x+1)-Conjecture asks the same question, except for a subset of Pi of density 1. The Structure Theorem proven in \cite{sinai} shows that infinity is in a sense a repelling point, giving some reasons to expect that the (3x+1)-Conjecture may be true. In this paper, we present the analogous theorem for some generalizations of the (3x+1)-Map, and expand on the consequences derived in \cite{sinai}. The generalizations we consider are determined by positive coprime integers, d and g, with g > d >= 2, and a periodic function, h(x). The map T is defined by the formula T(x) = (gx+h(gx))/d^k, where k is again the largest integer for which T(x) is an integer. We prove an analogous Structure Theorem for (d,g,h)-Maps, and that the probability distribution corresponding to the density converges to the Wiener measure with the drift log(g) - d/(d-1)log(d) and positive diffusion constant. This shows that it is natural to expect that typical trajectores return to the origin if log(g) - d/(d-1) log(d) <0 and escape to infinity otherwise.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601622
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0601622 (alternate)

3959. Capital Requirement for Achieving Acceptability

Author(s): Soumik Pal

Abstract: Consider an agent who enters a financial market on day t = 0 with an initial capital amount x. He invests this amount on stocks and the money market, and by day t = T, has generated a wealth W . He is given a convex class of probability measures (called scenarios) and a real-valued function (or floors) corresponding to each scenario. The agent faces the constraints that the expectation of W under each scenario must not be less than the corresponding floor. We call x acceptable if one can start with x and successfully generate W satisfying these constraints. The set of acceptable x is a half-line in R, unbounded from above. We show that under some regularity conditions on the set of scenarios and the floor function, the infimum of this set is given by the supremum of the floors over all scenarios under which S is a martingale.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601627
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601627 (alternate)

3960. Differential equations driven by H\"{o}lder continuous functions of order greater than 1/2

Author(s): Yaozhong Hu and David Nualart

Abstract: We derive estimates for the solutions to differential equations driven by a H\"older continuous function of order $\beta>1/2$. As an application we deduce the existence of moments for the solutions to stochastic partial differential equations driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>{1/2}$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601628
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601628 (alternate)

3961. Configurations of balls in Euclidean space that Brownian motion cannot avoid

Author(s): Tom Carroll and Joaquim Ortega-Cerd\`a

Abstract: We consider a collection of balls in Euclidean space and the problem of determining if Brownian motion has a positive probability of avoiding all the balls

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601632
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601632 (alternate)

3962. Discrete logistic branching populations and the canonical diffusion of adaptive dynamics

Author(s): Nicolas Champagnat (WIAS) and Amaury Lambert (FESE)

Abstract: The biological theory of adaptive dynamics proposes a description of the long-time evolution of an asexual population, based on the assumptions of large population, rare mutations and small mutation steps, that lead to a deterministic ODE, called 'canonical equation of adaptive dynamics'. However, in order to include the effect of genetic drift in this description, we have to apply a limit of weak selection to a finite stochastically fluctuating discrete population subject to competition in the logistic branching fashion. We start with the study of the particular case of two competing subpopulations resident and mutant) and seek explicit first-order formulae for the probability of fixation of the mutant, also interpreted as the mutant's fitness, in the vicinity of neutrality. In particular, the first-order term is a linear combination of products of functions of the initial mutant frequency times functions of the initial total population size, called invasibility coefficients (fertility, defence, aggressiveness, isolation, survival). Then we apply a limit of rare mutations to a population subject to mutation, birth and competition where the number of coexisting types may fluctuate, while keeping the population size finite. This leads to a jump process, the so-called 'trait substitution sequence', where evolution proceeds by successive invasions and fixations of mutant types. Finally, we apply a limit of weak selection (small mutation steps) to this jump process, that leads to a diffusion process of evolution, called 'canonical diffusion of adaptive dynamics', in which genetic drift is combined with directional selection driven by the fitness gradient.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601643
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601643 (alternate)

3963. The maximum entropy ansatz in the absence of a time arrow: fractional pole models

Author(s): Tryphon T. Georgiou

Abstract: The maximum entropy ansatz, as it is often invoked in the context of time-series analysis, suggests the selection of a power spectrum which is consistent with autocorrelation data and corresponds to a random process least predictable from past observations. We introduce and compare a class of spectra with the property that the underlying random process is least predictable at any given point from the complete set of past and future observations. In this context, randomness is quantified by the size of the corresponding smoothing error and deterministic processes are characterized by integrability of the inverse of their power spectral densities--as opposed to the log-integrability in the classical setting. The power spectrum which is consistent with a partial autocorrelation sequence and corresponds to the most random process in this new sense, is no longer rational but generated by finitely many fractional-poles.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601648
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601648 (alternate)

3964. Symmetrization of Bernoulli

Author(s): Soumik Pal

Abstract: Let X be a random variable. We shall call an independent random variable Y to be a symmetrizer for X, if X+Y is symmetric around zero. A random variable is said to be symmetry resistant if the variance of any symmetrizer Y, is never smaller than the variance of X itself. We prove that a Bernoulli(p) random variable is symmetry resistant if and only if p is not 1/2. This is an old problem proved in 1999 by Kagan, Mallows, Shepp, Vanderbei & Vardi using linear programming principles. We reprove it here using completely probabilistic tools using Skorokhod embedding and Ito's rule.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601652
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601652 (alternate)

3965. On the limiting velocity of high-dimentional random walk in random environment

Author(s): Noam Berger

Abstract: We show that Random Walk in uniformly elliptic i.i.d. environment in dimension 5 and higher has at most one non-zero limiting velocity. In particular this proves a law of large numbers in the distributionally symmetric case and establishes connections between different conjectures.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601656
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601656 (alternate)

3966. Small-time behavior of beta coalescents

Author(s): Julien Berestycki and Nathanael Berestycki and Jason Schweinsberg

Abstract: For a finite measure $\Lambda$ on $[0,1]$, the $\Lambda$-coalescent is a coalescent process such that, whenever there are $b$ clusters, each $k$-tuple of clusters merges into one at rate $\int_0^1 x^{k-2} (1-x)^{b-k} \Lambda(dx)$. It has recently been shown that if $1 < \alpha < 2$, the $\Lambda$-coalescent in which $\Lambda$ is the Beta$(2-\alpha, \alpha)$ distribution can be used to describe the genealogy of a continuous-state branching process (CSBP) with an $\alpha$-stable branching mechanism. Here we use facts about CSBPs to establish new results about the small-time asymptotics of beta coalescents. We prove an a.s. limit theorem for the number of blocks at small times, and we establish results about the sizes of the blocks. We also calculate the Hausdorff and packing dimensions of a metric space associated with the beta coalescents, and we find the sum of the lengths of the branches in the coalescent tree, both of which are determined by the behavior of coalescents at small times. We extend most of these results to other $\Lambda$-coalescents for which $\Lambda$ has the same asymptotic behavior near zero as the Beta$(2-\alpha, \alpha)$ distribution. This work complements recent work of Bertoin and Le Gall, who also used CSBPs to study small-time properties of $\Lambda$-coalescents.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601032
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601032 (alternate)

3967. Reflecting a Langevin Process at an Absorbing Boundary

Author(s): Jean Bertoin (PMA)

Abstract: We consider a Langevin process with white noise random forcing. We suppose that the energy of the particle is instantaneously absorbed when it hits some fixed obstacle. We show that nonetheless, the particle can be instantaneously reflected, and study some properties of this reflecting solution.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601657
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601657 (alternate)

3968. Strong disorder implies strong localization for directed polymers in a random environment

Author(s): Philippe Carmona (LMJL) and Yueyun Hu (LAGA)

Abstract: In this note we show that in any dimension $d$, the strong disorder property implies the strong localization property. This is established for a continuous time model of directed polymers in a random environment : the parabolic Anderson Model.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601670
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601670 (alternate)

3969. Brownian local minima, random dense countable sets and random equivalence classes

Author(s): Boris Tsirelson

Abstract: A random dense countable set is characterized (in distribution) by independence and stationarity. Two examples are `Brownian local minima' and `unordered infinite sample'. They are identically distributed. A framework for such concepts, proposed here, includes a wide class of random equivalence classes.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601673
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601673 (alternate)

3970. Positional games on random graphs

Author(s): Milos Stojakovic and Tibor Szabo

Abstract: We introduce and study Maker/Breaker-type positional games on random graphs. Our main concern is to determine the threshold probability $p_{F}$ for the existence of Maker's strategy to claim a member of $F$ in the unbiased game played on the edges of random graph $G(n,p)$, for various target families $F$ of winning sets. More generally, for each probability above this threshold we study the smallest bias $b$ such that Maker wins the $(1\:b)$ biased game. We investigate these functions for a number of basic games, like the connectivity game, the perfect matching game, the clique game and the Hamiltonian cycle game.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601659
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0601659 (alternate)

3971. Hadamard functions of inverse M-Matrices

Author(s): Claude Dellacherie and Servet Martinez and Jaime San Martin

Abstract: We prove that the class of GUM matrices is the largest class of bi-potential matrices stable under Hadamard increasing functions. We also show that any power greater than 1, in the sense of Hadamard functions, of an inverse M-matrix is also inverse M-matrix showing a conjecture stated in Neumann 1998. We study the class of filtered matrices, which include naturally the GUM matrices, and present some sufficient conditions for a filtered matrix to be a bi-potential.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601688
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601688 (alternate)

3972. Multi-Dimensional G-Brownian Motion and Related Stochastic Calculus under G-Expectation

Author(s): Shige Peng

Abstract: We develop a notion of nonlinear expectation --G-expectation-- generated by a nonlinear heat equation with infinitesimal generator G. We first study multi-dimensional G-normal distributions. With this nonlinear distribution we can introduce our G-expectation under which the canonical process is a multi dimensional G-Brownian motion. We then establish the related stochastic calculus, especially stochastic integrals of Ito's type with respect to our G-Brownian motion and derive the related Ito's formula. We have also obtained the existence and uniqueness of stochastic differential equation under our G-expectation.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601699
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601699 (alternate)

3973. An introduction to quantum filtering

Author(s): Luc Bouten and Ramon van Handel and Matthew James

Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to quantum filtering theory. An introduction to quantum probability theory is given, focusing on the spectral theorem and the conditional expectation as a least squares estimate, and culminating in the construction of Wiener and Poisson processes on the Fock space. We describe the quantum It\^o calculus and its use in the modelling of physical systems. We use both reference probability and innovations methods to obtain quantum filtering equations for system-probe models from quantum optics.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601741
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OC/0601741 (alternate)

3974. $G$--Expectation, $G$--Brownian Motion and Related Stochastic Calculus of It\^{o}'s type

Author(s): Shige Peng

Abstract: We introduce a notion of nonlinear expectation --$G$--expectation-- generated by a nonlinear heat equation with infinitesimal generator $G$. We first discuss the notion of $G$--standard normal distribution. With this nonlinear distribution we can introduce our $G$--expectation under which the canonical process is a $G$--Brownian motion. We then establish the related stochastic calculus, especially stochastic integrals of It\^{o}'s type with respect to our $G$--Brownian motion and derive the related It\^{o}'s formula. We have also give the existence and uniqueness of stochastic differential equation under our $G$--expectation. As compared with our previous framework of $g$--expectations, the theory of $G$--expectation is intrinsic in the sense that it is not based on a given (linear) probability space.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601035
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601035 (alternate)

3975. Metastable Behaviour of Small Noise Levy-Driven Diffusion

Author(s): Ilya Pavlyukevich

Abstract: We consider a dynamical system in R driven by a vector field -U', where U is a multi-well potential satisfying some regularity conditions. We perturb this dynamical system by a Levy noise of small intensity and such that the heaviest tail of its Levy measure is regularly varying. We show that the perturbed dynamical system exhibits metastable behaviour i.e. on a proper time scale it reminds of a Markov jump process taking values in the local minima of the potential U. Due to the heavy-tail nature of the random perturbation, the results differ strongly from the well studied purely Gaussian case.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601771
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601771 (alternate)

3976. Functional quantization rate and mean pathwise regularity of processes with an application to L\'{e}vy processes

Author(s): Harald Luschgy (PMA) and Gilles Pag\`{e}s (PMA)

Abstract: We investigate the connections between the mean pathwise regularity of stochastic processes and their $L^r(\P$)-functional quantization rate as random variables taking values in some $L^p([0,T],dt)$-spaces ($<0p\le r$). Our main tool is the Haar basis. We then emphasize that the derived functional quantization rate may be optimal (like for the Brownian motion) or not (like for the Poisson process). Then, we focus on the specific family of L\'evy processes for which we derive a general quantization rate based on the regular variation properties of its L\'evy measure at 0. The case of compound Poisson processes which appears as degenerate in the former approach, are studied specifically: one observes some rates which are in-between finite dimensional and infinite dimensional "usual" rates.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601774
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601774 (alternate)

3977. Perpetual integral functionals of diffusions and their numerical computations

Author(s): P. Salminen and O. Wallin

Abstract: In this paper we study perpetual integral functionals of diffusions. Our interest is focused on cases where such functionals can be expressed as first hitting times for some other diffusions. In particular, we generalize the result which connects one-sided functionals of Brownian motion with drift with first hitting times of reflecting diffusions. Interpretating perpetual integral functionals as hitting times allows us to compute numerically their distributions by applying numerical algorithms for hitting times. Hereby, we discuss two approaches: the numerical inversion of the Laplace transform of the first hitting time and the numerical solution of the PDE associated with the distribution function of the first hitting time. For numerical inversion of Laplace tranforms we have implemented the Euler algorithm developed by Abate and Whitt. However, perpetuities lead often to diffusions for which the explicit forms of the Laplace transforms of first hitting times are not available. In such cases, and also otherwise, algorithms for numerical solutions of PDE's can be evoked. In particular, we analyze the Kolmogorov PDE of some diffusions appearing in our work via the Crank-Nicolson scheme.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601775
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601775 (alternate)

3978. Propagation of Memory Parameter from Durations to Counts

Author(s): Rohit Deo (IOMS) and Clifford M. Hurvich (IOMS) and Philippe Soulier (MODAL'X), Yi Wang (IOMS)

Abstract: We establish sufficient conditions on durations that are stationary with finite variance and memory parameter $d \in [0,1/2)$ to ensure that the corresponding counting process $N(t)$ satisfies $\textmd{Var} N(t) \sim C t^{2d+1}$ ($C>0$) as $t \to \infty$, with the same memory parameter $d \in [0,1/2)$ that was assumed for the durations. Thus, these conditions ensure that the memory in durations propagates to the same memory parameter in counts and therefore in realized volatility. We then show that any utoregressive Conditional Duration ACD(1,1) model with a sufficient number of finite moments yields short memory in counts, while any Long Memory Stochastic Duration model with $d>0$ and all finite moments yields long memory in counts, with the same $d$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601742
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0601742 (alternate)

3979. Moderate deviations for the range of planar random walks

Author(s): Richard F. Bass and Xia Chen and and Jay Rosen

Abstract: Given a symmetric random walk in $Z^2$ with finite second moments, let $R_n$ be the range of the random walk up to time $n$. We study moderate deviations for $R_n -E R_n$ and $E R_n -R_n$. We also derive the corresponding laws of the iterated logarithm.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602001
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602001 (alternate)

3980. The Brownian Frame Process as a Rough Path

Author(s): Benjamin Hoff

Abstract: We introduce the (path-valued) Brownian frame process whose evaluation at time t is the sample path of the underlying Brownian motion run from time t-1 to t. Due to its connections with Gaussian Volterra processes and SDDEs this is an interesting object to study. The first part deals with path-wise properties of the Brownian frame process in the p-variation norm. The second part shows the non-existence of a Levy area random variable in a particular norm, revealing the difficulty in establishing a Rough Path integration theory for the Brownian Frame process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602008
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602008 (alternate)

3981. A data-reconstructed fractional volatility model

Author(s): Rui Vilela Mendes

Abstract: Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior are derived from the model and compared with data.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602013
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602013 (alternate)

3982. Bounds on Regeneration Times and Limit Theorems for Subgeometric Markov Chains

Author(s): Randal Douc (CMAP) and Arnaud Guillin (CEREMADE) and Eric Moulines (LTCI)

Abstract: This paper studies limit theorems for Markov Chains with general state space under conditions which imply subgeometric ergodicity. We obtain a central limit theorem and moderate deviation principles for additive not necessarily bounded functional of the Markov chains under drift and minorization conditions which are weaker than the Foster-Lyapunov conditions. The regeneration-split chain method and a precise control of the modulated moment of the hitting time to small sets are employed in the proof.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601036
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601036 (alternate)

3983. Exact conditions for countable inclusion-exclusion identity and extensions

Author(s): Shmuel Friedland and Elliot Krop

Abstract: We give simple necessary and sufficient conditions for the inclusion-exclusion identity to hold for an infinite countable number of sets. In terms of a random variable, whose range are nonnegative integers, this condition is equivalent to the convergence to zero of binomial moments. Some standard extensions of the countable inclusion-exclusion identity are also given.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602035
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602035 (alternate)

3984. On the speed of the one-dimensional excited random walk in the transient regime

Author(s): Thomas Mountford and Leandro P. R. Pimentel and Glauco Valle

Abstract: We study a class of nearest-neighbor discrete time integer random walks introduced by Zerner, the so called multi-excited random walks. The jump probabilities for such random walker have a drift to the right whose intensity depends on a random or non-random environment that also evolves in time according to the last visited site. A complete description of the recurrence and transience phases was given by Zerner under fairly general assumptions for the environment. We contribute in this paper with some results that allows us to point out if the random walker speed is strictly positive or not in the transient case for a class of non-random environments.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602041
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602041 (alternate)

3985. Rough Path Analysis Via Fractional Calculus

Author(s): Yaozhong Hu and David Nualart

Abstract: Using fractional calculus we define integrals of the form $% \int_{a}^{b}f(x_{t})dy_{t}$, where $x$ and $y$ are vector-valued H\"{o}lder continuous functions of order $\displaystyle \beta \in (\frac13, \frac12)$ and $f$ is a continuously differentiable function such that $f'$ is $\lambda$-H\"oldr continuous for some $\lambda>\frac1\beta-2$. Under some further smooth conditions on $f$ the integral is a continuous functional of $x$, $y$, and the tensor product $x\otimes y$ with respect to the H\"{o}lder norms. We derive some estimates for these integrals and we solve differential equations driven by the function $y$. We discuss some applications to stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602050
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602050 (alternate)

3986. Variational Bounds for the Generalized Random Energy Model

Author(s): Cristian Giardina' and Shannon Starr

Abstract: We compute the pressure of the random energy model (REM) and generalized random energy model(GREM) by establishing variational upper and lower bounds. For the upper bound, we generalize Guerra's ``broken replica symmetry bounds",and identify the random probability cascade as the appropriate random overlap structure for the model. For the REM the lower bound is obtained, in the high temperature regime using Talagrand's concentration of measure inequality, and in the low temperature regime using convexity and the high temperature formula. The lower bound for the GREM follows from the lower bound for the REM by induction. While the argument for the lower bound is fairly standard, our proof of the upper bound is new.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0601068
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0601068 (alternate)

3987. A correspondence principle between (hyper)graph theory and probability theory, and the (hyper)graph removal lemma

Author(s): Terence Tao

Abstract: We introduce a correspondence principle (analogous to the Furstenberg correspondence principle) that allows one to extract an infinite random graph or hypergraph from a sequence of increasingly large deterministic graphs or hypergraphs. As an application we present a new (infinitary) proof of the hypergraph removal lemma of Nagle-Schacht-R\"odl-Skokan and Gowers, which does not require the hypergraph regularity lemma and requires significantly less computation. This in turn gives new proofs of several corollaries of the hypergraph removal lemma, such as Szemer\'edi's theorem on arithmetic progressions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602037
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0602037 (alternate)

3988. Pathwise Stationary Solutions of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations and Backward Doubly Stochastic Differential Equations on Infinite Horizon

Author(s): Qi Zhang and Huaizhong Zhao

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to study the existence of stationary solution for stochastic partial differential equations. We establish a new connection between backward doubly stochastic differential equations on infinite time horizon and the stationary solution of the SPDEs. For this we study the existence of the solution of the associated BDSDEs on infinite time horizon and prove it is a stationary viscosity solution of the corresponding SPDEs.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602054
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602054 (alternate)

3989. On the decay of fragments in homogeneous fragmentations

Author(s): Nathalie Krell (PMA)

Abstract: We consider a mass-conservative fragmentation of the unit interval. The main purpose of this work is to specify the Hausdorff dimension of the set of locations having exactly an exponential decay. The study relies on an additive martingale which arises naturally in this setting, and a class of L\'{e}vy process constrained to stay in a finite interval.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602065
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602065 (alternate)

3990. Large deviations estimates for self-intersection local times for simple random walk in $\Z^3$

Author(s): Amine Asselah

Abstract: We obtain large deviations estimates for the self-intersection local times for a symmetric random walk in dimension 3. Also, we show that the main contribution to making the self-intersection large, in a time period of length $n$, comes from sites visited less than some power of $\log(n)$. This is opposite to the situation in dimensions larger or equal to 5. Finally, we present two applications of our estimates: (i) to moderate deviations estimates for the range of a random walk, and (ii) to moderate deviations for random walk in random sceneries.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602074
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602074 (alternate)

3991. Exact rate of convergence of some approximation schemes associated to SDEs driven by a fractional Brownian motion

Author(s): Andreas Neuenkirch (TU DARMSTADT) and Ivan Nourdin (PMA)

Abstract: In this paper, we derive the exact rate of convergence of some approximation schemes associated to scalar stochastic differential equations driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601038
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601038 (alternate)

3992. Moments of convex distribution functions and completely alternating sequences

Author(s): Alexander Gnedin and Jim Pitman

Abstract: We solve the moment problem for convex distribution functions on $[0,1]$ in terms of completely alternating sequences. This complements a recent solution of this problem by Diaconis and Freedman, and relates this work to the L{\'e}vy-Khintchine formula for the Laplace transform of a subordinator, and to regenerative composition structures.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602091
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602091 (alternate)

3993. Exclusion processes in higher dimensions: Stationary measures and convergence

Author(s): M. Bramson and T. M. Liggett

Abstract: There has been significant progress recently in our understanding of the stationary measures of the exclusion process on $Z$. The corresponding situation in higher dimensions remains largely a mystery. In this paper we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a product measure to be stationary for the exclusion process on an arbitrary set, and apply this result to find examples on $Z^d$ and on homogeneous trees in which product measures are stationary even when they are neither homogeneous nor reversible. We then begin the task of narrowing down the possibilities for existence of other stationary measures for the process on $Z^d$. In particular, we study stationary measures that are invariant under translations in all directions orthogonal to a fixed nonzero vector. We then prove a number of convergence results as $t\to\infty$ for the measure of the exclusion process. Under appropriate initial conditions, we show convergence of such measures to the above stationary measures. We also employ hydrodynamics to provide further examples of convergence.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602098
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602098 (alternate)

3994. Beta-coalescents and continuous stable random trees

Author(s): Julien Berestycki and Nathanael Berestycki and Jason Schweinsberg

Abstract: Coalescents with multiple collisions, also known as $\Lambda$-coalescents, were introduced by Pitman and Sagitov in 1999. These processes describe the evolution of particles that undergo stochastic coagulation in such a way that several blocks can merge at the same time to form a single block. In the case that the measure $\Lambda$ is the Beta$(2-\alpha,\alpha)$ distribution, they are also known to describe the genealogies of large populations where a single individual can produce a large number of offspring. Here we use a recent result of Birkner et al. to prove that Beta-coalescents can be embedded in continuous stable random trees, about which much is known due to recent progress of Duquesne and Le Gall. Our proof is based on a construction of the Donnelly-Kurtz lookdown process using continuous random trees which is of independent interest. This produces a number of results concerning the small-time behavior of Beta-coalescents. Most notably, we recover an almost sure limit theorem of the authors for the number of blocks at small times, and give the multifractal spectrum corresponding to the emergence of blocks with atypical size. Also, we are able to find exact asymptotics for sampling formulae corresponding to the site frequency spectrum and allele frequency spectrum associated with mutations in the context of population genetics.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602113
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602113 (alternate)

3995. Sample path large deviations for queueing networks with Bernoulli routing

Author(s): Marc Lelarge

Abstract: This paper is devoted to the problem of sample path large deviations for multidimensional queueing models with feedback. We derive a new version of the contraction principle where the continuous map is not well-defined on the whole space: we give conditions under which it allows to identify the rate function. We illustrate our technique by deriving a large deviation principle for a class of networks that contains the classical Jackson networks.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602130
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602130 (alternate)

3996. Wasserstein distance on configuration space

Author(s): L. Decreusefond

Abstract: We investigate here the optimal transportation problem on configuration space for the quadratic cost. It is shown that, as usual, provided that the corresponding Wasserstein is finite, there exists one unique optimal measure and that this measure is supported by the graph of the derivative (in the sense of the Malliavin calculus) of a ``concave'' (in a sense to be defined below) function. For finite point processes, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the Wasserstein distance to be finite.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602134
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602134 (alternate)

3997. Second order asymptotics for matrix models

Author(s): Alice Guionnet (ENS Lyon - UMPA) and \'Edouard Maurel-Segala (ENS Lyon - UMPA)

Abstract: We study several-matrix models and show that when the potential is convex and a small perturbation of the Gaussian potential, the first order correction to the free energy can be expressed as a generating function for the enumeration of maps of genus one. In order to do that, we prove a central limit theorem for traces of words of the weakly interacting random matrices defined by these matrix models and show that the variance is a generating function for the number of planar maps with two vertices with prescribed colored edges.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601040
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601040 (alternate)

3998. Permutation tableaux and the asymmetric exclusion process

Author(s): Lauren K. Williams

Abstract: The partially asymmetric exclusion process (PASEP) is an important model from statistical mechanics which describes a system of interacting particles hopping left and right on a one-dimensional lattice of n sites. It is partially asymmetric in the sense that the probability of hopping left is q times the probability of hopping right. In this paper we prove a close connection between the PASEP model and the combinatorics of permutation tableaux (certain 0-1 tableaux introduced in a previous paper with Steingrimsson). Namely, we prove that in the long time limit, the probability that the PASEP model is in a particular configuration tau is essentially the weight generating function for permutation tableaux of shape lambda(tau). The proof of this result uses a result of Derrida et al on the matrix ansatz for the PASEP. We derive a number of enumerative consequences of the connection between the PASEP model and permutation tableaux. One consequence is a generating function for the following (equidistributed) objects: the partition function for the PASEP model; permutation tableaux of length n+1, enumerated according to weight; permutations in S_{n+1}, enumerated according to crossings; permutations in S_{n+1}, enumerated according to occurrences of the generalized pattern 2-31. Another consequence is a generating function for the subset of the above objects which is specified by fixing (respectively) a configuration tau, a shape lambda(tau), a weak excedence set W(tau), or a descent set D(tau). Note that the equidistribution of permutation tableaux and permutations was proved in a previous paper of Steingrimsson and the author.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602109
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0602109 (alternate)

3999. No-arbitrage and closure results for trading cones with transaction costs

Author(s): Saul Jacka and Abdelkarem Berkaoui and Jon Warren

Abstract: The paper considers trading with proportional transaction costs. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for $A$, the cone of claims attainable from zero endowment, to be closed, and show, in general, how to represent its closure in such a way that it is the cone of claims attainable for zero endowment, for a different set of trading prices. The new representation obeys the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing. We then show how to represent claims and in a final section show how any such setup corresponds to a coherent risk measure.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602178
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602178 (alternate)

4000. Isoperimetric-type inequalities for iterated Brownian motion in R^n

Author(s): Erkan Nane

Abstract: We extend generalized isoperimetric-type inequalities to iterated Brownian motion over several domains in $\RR{R}^{n}$. These kinds of inequalities imply in particular that for domains of finite volume, the exit distribution and moments of the first exit time for iterated Brownian motion are maximized with the ball $D^{*}$ centered at the origin, which has the same volume as $D$

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602188
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602188 (alternate)

4001. Conditioning by rare sources

Author(s): M. Grendar

Abstract: In this paper we study the exponential decay of posterior probability of a set of sources and conditioning by rare sources for both uniform and general prior distributions of sources. The decay rate is determined by L-divergence and rare sources from a convex, closed set asymptotically conditionally concentrate on an L-projection. L-projection on a linear family of sources belongs to Lambda-family of distributions. The results parallel those of Large Deviations for Empirical Measures (Sanov's Theorem and Conditional Limit Theorem).

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601048
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0601048 (alternate)

4002. Random series of functions and applications

Author(s): Fr\'{e}d\'{e}ric Paccaut (LAMFA) and Dominique Schneider (LMPA)

Abstract: We study the continuity properties of trajectories for some random series of functions $\sum a\_kf(\alpha X\_k(\omega))$ where $a\_k$ is a complex sequence, $X\_k$ a sequence of real independent random variables, $f$ is a real valued function with period one and summable Fourier coefficients. We obtain almost sure continuity results for these periodic or almost periodic series for a large class of functions, where the "almost sure" does not depend on the function.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602207
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602207 (alternate)

4003. Quantum stochatic integrals and Doob-Meyer decomposition

Author(s): Andrzej Luczak

Abstract: We show that for a quantum $L^p$-martingale $(X(t))$, $p>2$, there exists a Doob-Meyer decomposition of the submartingale $(|X(t)|^2)$. A noncommutative counterpart of a classical process continuous with probability one is introduced, and a quantum stochastic integral of such a process with respect to an $L^p$-martingale, $p>2$, is constructed. Using this construction, the uniqueness of the Doob-Meyer decomposition for a quantum martingale `continuous with probability one' is proved, and explicit forms of this decomposition and the quadratic variation process for such a martingale are obtained.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602216
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0602216 (alternate)

4004. Limit Theorems in Free Probability Theory I

Author(s): G. P. Chistyakov and F. G\"otze

Abstract: Based on a new analytical approach to the definition of additive free convolution on probability measures on the real line we prove free analogs of limit theorems for sums for non-identically distributed random variables in classical Probability Theory.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602219
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0602219 (alternate)

4005. Critical Branching Regenerative Processes with Migration

Author(s): George P. Yanev and Kosto V. Mitov and and Nickolay M. Yanev

Abstract: This paper demonstrates a new regeneration processes technology making use of positive stable distributions. We study the asymptotic behavior of branching processes with a randomly controlled migration component. Using the new method, we confirm some known results and establish new limit theorems that hold in a more general setting.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602261
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602261 (alternate)

4006. A Sub-Gaussian Berry-Esseen Theorem for the Hypergeometric Distribution

Author(s): Soumendra N. Lahiri and A. Chatterjee and and T. Maiti

Abstract: In this paper, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition on the parameters of the Hypergeometric distribution for weak convergence to a Normal limit. We establish a Berry-Esseen theorem for the Hypergeometric distribution solely under this necessary and sufficient condition. We further derive a nonuniform Berry-Esseen bound where the tails of the difference between the Hypergeometric and the Normal distribution functions are shown to decay at a sub-Gaussian rate.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602276
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602276 (alternate)

4007. Recognising the Last Record of a Sequence

Author(s): Alexander Gnedin

Abstract: We study the best-choice problem for processes which generalise the process of records from Poisson-paced i.i.d. observations. Under the assumption that the observer knows distribution of the process and the horizon, we determine the optimal stopping policy and for a parametric family of problems also derive an explicit formula for the maximum probability of recognising the last record.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602278
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602278 (alternate)

4008. Bulk diffusion of 1D exclusion process with bond disorder

Author(s): A. Faggionato

Abstract: Given a doubly infinite sequence of positive numbers {c_k: k in Z} satisfying a LLN with limit A, we consider the nearest-neighbor simple exclusion process on Z where c_k is the probability rate of the jumps between k and k+1. If A is infinite we require an additional condition corresponding to macroscopic homogeneity of the medium. By extending a method developed by K. Nagy we show that the diffusively rescaled process has hydrodynamic behavior described by the heat equation with diffusion constant 1/A. In particular, the process has diffusive behavior for finite A and subdiffusive behavior for infinite A.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601076
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601076 (alternate)

4009. AR(1) Schemes with Semi-stable Marginals

Author(s): S Satheesh and E Sandhya

Abstract: The family of semi-stable laws is shown to be infinitely divisible and semi-selfdecomposable. Thus they qualify to model AR(1) schemes. The structure of AR(1) schemes with semi-stable marginals are explored.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602286
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602286 (alternate)

4010. Invariance principles for random walks conditioned to stay positive

Author(s): Francesco Caravenna and Lo\"ic Chaumont

Abstract: Let {S_n} be a random walk in the domain of attraction of a stable law Y, i.e. there exists a sequence of positive real numbers (a_n) such that S_n/a_n converges in law to Y. Our main result is that the rescaled process (S_[nt]/a_n, t \ge 0), when conditioned to stay positive for all the time, converges in law (in the functional sense) towards the corresponding stable Levy process conditioned to stay positive in the same sense. Under some additional assumptions, we also prove a related invariance principle for the random walk killed at its first entrance in the negative half-line and conditioned to die at zero.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602306
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602306 (alternate)

4011. A Parrondo's Paradox in Reliability Theory

Author(s): Antonio Di Crescenzo

Abstract: Parrondo's paradox arises in sequences of games in which a winning expectation may be obtained by playing the games in a random order, even though each game in the sequence may be lost when played individually. We present a suitable version of Parrondo's paradox in reliability theory involving two systems in series, the units of the first system being less reliable than those of the second. If the first system is modified so that the distributions of its new units are mixtures of the previous distributions with equal probabilities, then under suitable conditions the new system is shown to be more reliable than the second in the "usual stochastic order" sense.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602308
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602308 (alternate)

4012. On permanental polynomials of certain random matrices

Author(s): Yan V Fyodorov

Abstract: The paper addresses the calculation of correlation functions of permanental polynomials of matrices with random entries. By exploiting a convenient contour integral representation of the matrix permanent some explicit results are provided for several random matrix ensembles. When compared with the corresponding formulae for characteristic polynomials, our results show both striking similarities and interesting differences. Based on these findings, we conjecture the asymptotic forms of the density of permanental roots in the complex plane for Gaussian ensembles as well as for the Circular Unitary Ensemble of large matrix dimension.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0602039
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0602039 (alternate)

4013. Deterministic Random Walks on the Integers

Author(s): Joshua Cooper and Benjamin Doerr and Joel Spencer and and Gabor Tardos

Abstract: Jim Propp's P-machine, also known as the "rotor router model" is a simple deterministic process that simulates a random walk on a graph. Instead of distributing chips to randomly chosen neighbors, it serves the neighbors in a fixed order. We investigate how well this process simulates a random walk. For the graph being the infinite path, we show that, independent of the starting configuration, at each time and on each vertex, the number of chips on this vertex deviates from the expected number of chips in the random walk model by at most a constant c_1, which is approximately 2.29. For intervals of length L, this improves to a difference of O(log L), for the L_2 average of a contiguous set of intervals even to O(sqrt{log L}). All these bounds are tight.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602300
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0602300 (alternate)

4014. Filtration-Consistent Dynamic Operator with a Floor and Associated Reflected Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

Author(s): Xiaobo Bao and Shanjian Tang

Abstract: This paper introduces the notion of a filtration-consistent dynamic operator with a floor, by suitably formulating four axioms. It is shown that under some suitable conditions, a filtration-consistent dynamic operator with a continuous upper-bounded floor is necessarily represented by the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation reflected upwards on the floor.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602322
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602322 (alternate)

4015. Dual Representation as Stochastic Differential Games of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and Dynamic Evaluations

Author(s): Shanjian Tang

Abstract: In this Note, assuming that the generator is uniform Lipschitz in the unknown variables, we relate the solution of a one dimensional backward stochastic differential equation with the value process of a stochastic differential game. Under a domination condition, a filtration-consistent evaluations is also related to a stochastic differential game. This relation comes out of a min-max representation for uniform Lipschitz functions as affine functions. The extension to reflected backward stochastic differential equations is also included.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602323
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602323 (alternate)

4016. A note on the connection between Molchan-Golosov- and Mandelbrot-Van Ness representation of fractional Brownian motion

Author(s): Celine Jost (University of Helsinki)

Abstract: We proof a connection between the generalized Molchan-Golosov integral transform and the generalized Mandelbrot-Van Ness integral transform of fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The former changes fBm of arbitrary Hurst index K into fBm of index H by integrating over [0,t], whereas the latter requires integration over (-infty,t].

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602356
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602356 (alternate)

4017. Euler Estimates of Rough Differential Equations

Author(s): Peter Friz and Nicolas Victoir

Abstract: We consider controlled differential equations and give new estimates for higher order Euler schemes. Our proofs are inspired by recent work of A. M. Davie who considers first and second order schemes. In order to implement the general case we make systematic use of geodesic approximations in the free nilpotent group. As application, we can control moments of solutions to rough path differential equations (RDEs) driven by random rough paths with sufficient integrability and have a criteria for L^q - convergence in the Universal Limit Theorem. We also obtain Azencott type estimates and asymptotic expansions for random RDE solution. When specialized to RDEs driven by Enhanced Brownian motion, we (mildly) improve classic estimates for diffusions in the small time limit.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602345
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CA/0602345 (alternate)

4018. Complex analysis methods in noncommutative probability

Author(s): Serban Teodor Belinschi

Abstract: In this thesis we study convolutions that arise from noncommutative probability theory. We prove several regularity results for free convolutions, and for measures in partially defined one-parameter free convolution semigroups. We discuss connections between Boolean and free convolutions and, in the last chapter, we prove that any infinitely divisible probability measure with respect to monotonic additive or multiplicative convolution belongs to a one-parameter semigroup with respect to the corresponding convolution. Earlier versions of some of the results in this thesis have already been published, while some others have been submitted for publication. We have preserved almost entirely the specific format for PhD theses required by Indiana University. This adds several unnecessary pages to the document, but we wanted to preserve the specificity of the document as a PhD thesis at Indiana University.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602343
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0602343 (alternate)

4019. Optimally coupling the Kolmogorov diffusion, and related optimal control problems

Author(s): Kalvis M. Jansons and Paul D. Metcalfe

Abstract: We discuss the optimal Markovian coupling before an exponential time of the Kolmogorov diffusion, and a class of related stochastic control problems in which the aim is to hit the origin before an exponential time. We provide a scaling argument for the optimal control in the near field and use rational WKB approximation to obtain the optimal control in the far field, and compare these analytical results with numerical experiments. In some of these optimal control problems, in which the advection velocity field is bounded, we show that the probability of success field agrees exactly with its leading-order asymptotic approximation in some areas of the plane, up to an undetermined multiplicative constant. We conjecture a necessary and sufficient condition for this behaviour, which is strongly supported by numerical experiments.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602365
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602365 (alternate)

4020. Stochastic Generalized Porous Media and Fast Diffusion Equations

Author(s): Jiagang Ren and Michael R\"ockner and Feng-Yu Wang

Abstract: We present a generalization of Krylov-Rozovskii's result on the existence and uniqueness of solutions to monotone stochastic differential equations. As an application, the stochastic generalized porous media and fast diffusion equations are studied for $\sigma$-finite reference measures, where the drift term is given by a negative definite operator acting on a time-dependent function, which belongs to a large class of functions comparable with the so-called $N$-functions in the theory of Orlicz spaces.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602369
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602369 (alternate)

4021. Distortion mismatch in the quantization of probability measures

Author(s): Siegried Graf (Universit\"{a}t Passau) and Harald Luschgy and Gilles Pag\`es (PMA)

Abstract: We elucidate the asymptotics of the L^s-quantization error induced by a sequence of L^r-optimal n-quantizers of a probability distribution P on R^d when s>r. In particular we show that under natural assumptions, the optimal rate is preserved as long as s

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602381
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602381 (alternate)

4022. Non-semimartingales: stochastic differential equations and weak Dirichlet processes

Author(s): Rosanna Coviello and Francesco Russo

Abstract: In this paper we discuss existence and uniqueness for a one-dimensional time inhomogeneous stochastic differential equation directed by an $\mathbb F$-semimartingale $M$ and a finite cubic variation process $\xi$ which has the structure $Q + R$ where $Q$ is a finite quadratic variation process and $R$ is {\it{strongly predictable}} in some technical sense: that condition implies in particular that $R$ is \textit{weak Dirichlet}, and it is fulfilled, for instance, when $R$ is independent of $M$. The method is based on a transformation which reduces the {{\it diffusion}} coefficient multiplying $\xi$ to 1. We use generalized It\^o and It\^o-Wentzell type formulae. A similar method allows to discuss existence and uniqueness theorem when $\xi$ is a H\"older continuous process and $\sigma$ is only H\"older in space. Using an It\^o formula for {\it{reversible}} semimartingales we also show existence of a solution when $\xi$ is a Brownian motion and $\sigma$ is only continuous.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602384
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602384 (alternate)

4023. Restricting SLE(8/3) to an annulus

Author(s): Robert O. Bauer

Abstract: We study the probability that chordal $\text{SLE}_{8/3}$ in the unit disk from $\exp(ix)$ to 1 avoids the disk of radius $q$ centered at zero. We find the initial/boundary-value problem satisfied by this probability as a function of $x$ and $a=\ln q$, and show that asymptotically as $q$ tends to one this probability decays like $\exp(-c/(1-q))$ with $c=5\pi^2/16$. We also give a representation of this probability as a functional of a Legendre process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602391
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602391 (alternate)

4024. Incorporating expert knowledge into frequentist results by combining subjective prior and objective posterior distributions: A generalization of confidence distribution combination

Author(s): David R. Bickel

Abstract: Prior information can be incorporated into a p-value or CI by combining the confidence distribution (CD) from the observed data with one or more independent CDs representing well-calibrated expert opinion. The first CD may be an objective Bayes posterior distribution.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602377
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0602377 (alternate)

4025. Discretisation of stochastic control problems for continuous time dynamics with delay

Author(s): Markus Fischer and Markus Reiss

Abstract: As a main step in the numerical solution of control problems in continuous time, the controlled process is approximated by sequences of controlled Markov chains, thus discretising time and space. A new feature in this context is to allow for delay in the dynamics. The existence of an optimal strategy with respect to the cost functional can be guaranteed in the class of relaxed controls. Weak convergence of the approximating extended Markov chains to the original process together with convergence of the associated optimal strategies is established.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602385
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OC/0602385 (alternate)

4026. Small time asymptotics in local limit theorems for Markov chains converging to diffusions

Author(s): Valentin Konakov

Abstract: We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusion process. Local limit theorems for transition densities are proved. The observation time [0,T] may be fixed or lim n T = 0, where nh = T and h is a mesh between two neighboring observation points.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602429
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602429 (alternate)

4027. Accuracy of Diffusion Approximations for High Frequency Markov Data

Author(s): Valentin Konakov

Abstract: We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusio process. Edgeworth type expansions of third order for transition densities are proved. This is done for time horizons that converge to 0. For this purpose we represent the transition density as a functional of densities of sums of i.i.d. variables. This will be done by application of the parametrix method. Then we apply Edgeworth expansions to the densities. The resulting series gives our Edgeworth-type expansion for the transition density of Markov chains. The research is motivated by applications to high frequency data that are available on a very fine grid but are approximated by a diffusion model on a more rough grid.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602430
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602430 (alternate)

4028. The ratio set of the harmonic measure of a random walk on a hyperbolic group

Author(s): Masaki Izumi and Sergey Neshveyev and Rui Okayasu

Abstract: We consider the harmonic measure on the Gromov boundary of a nonamenable hyperbolic group defined by a finite range random walk on the group, and study the corresponding orbit equivalence relation on the boundary. It is known to be always amenable and of type III. We determine its ratio set by showing that it is generated by certain values of the Martin kernel. In particular, we show that the equivalence relation is never of type III_0.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602409
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0602409 (alternate)

4029. Optimal consumption in discrete-time financial models with industrial investment opportunities and nonlinear returns

Author(s): Bruno Bouchard and Huy\^en Pham

Abstract: We consider a general discrete-time financial market with proportional transaction costs as in [Kabanov, Stricker and R\'{a}sonyi Finance and Stochastics 7 (2003) 403--411] and [Schachermayer Math. Finance 14 (2004) 19--48]. In addition to the usual investment in financial assets, we assume that the agents can invest part of their wealth in industrial projects that yield a nonlinear random return. We study the problem of maximizing the utility of consumption on a finite time period. The main difficulty comes from the nonlinearity of the nonfinancial assets' return. Our main result is to show that existence holds in the utility maximization problem. As an intermediary step, we prove the closedness of the set $A_T$ of attainable claims under a robust no-arbitrage property similar to the one introduced in [Schachermayer Math. Finance 14 (2004) 19--48] and further discussed in [Kabanov, Stricker and R\'{a}sonyi Finance and Stochastics 7 (2003) 403--411]. This allows us to provide a dual formulation for $A_T$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602451
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602451 (alternate)

4030. Small time path behavior of double stochastic integrals and applications to stochastic control

Author(s): Patrick Cheridito and H. Mete Soner and Nizar Touzi

Abstract: We study the small time path behavior of double stochastic integrals of the form $\int_0^t(\int_0^rb(u) dW(u))^T dW(r)$, where $W$ is a $d$-dimensional Brownian motion and $b$ is an integrable progressively measurable stochastic process taking values in the set of $d\times d$-matrices. We prove a law of the iterated logarithm that holds for all bounded progressively measurable $b$ and give additional results under continuity assumptions on $b$. As an application, we discuss a stochastic control problem that arises in the study of the super-replication of a contingent claim under gamma constraints.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602453
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602453 (alternate)

4031. Functional large deviations for multivariate regularly varying random walks

Author(s): Henrik Hult and Filip Lindskog and Thomas Mikosch and Gennady Samorodnitsky

Abstract: We extend classical results by A. V. Nagaev [Izv. Akad. Nauk UzSSR Ser. Fiz.--Mat. Nauk 6 (1969) 17--22, Theory Probab. Appl. 14 (1969) 51--64, 193--208] on large deviations for sums of i.i.d. regularly varying random variables to partial sum processes of i.i.d. regularly varying vectors. The results are stated in terms of a heavy-tailed large deviation principle on the space of c\`{a}dl\`{a}g functions. We illustrate how these results can be applied to functionals of the partial sum process, including ruin probabilities for multivariate random walks and long strange segments. These results make precise the idea of heavy-tailed large deviation heuristics: in an asymptotic sense, only the largest step contributes to the extremal behavior of a multivariate random walk.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602460
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602460 (alternate)

4032. Maturity randomization for stochastic control problems

Author(s): Bruno Bouchard and Nicole El Karoui and Nizar Touzi

Abstract: We study a maturity randomization technique for approximating optimal control problems. The algorithm is based on a sequence of control problems with random terminal horizon which converges to the original one. This is a generalization of the so-called Canadization procedure suggested by Carr [Review of Financial Studies II (1998) 597--626] for the fast computation of American put option prices. In addition to the original application of this technique to optimal stopping problems, we provide an application to another problem in finance, namely the super-replication problem under stochastic volatility, and we show that the approximating value functions can be computed explicitly.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602462
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602462 (alternate)

4033. Asymptotic error for the Milstein scheme for SDEs driven by continuous semimartingales

Author(s): Liqing Yan

Abstract: A Milstein-type scheme was proposed to improve the rate of convergence of its approximation of the solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by a vector of continuous semimartingales. A necessary and sufficient condition was provided for this rate to be $1/n$ when the SDE is driven by a vector of continuous local martingales, or continuous semimartingales under an additional assumption on their finite variation part. The asymptotic behavior (weak convergence) of the normalized error processes was also studied.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602465
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602465 (alternate)

4034. Two connections between random systems and non-Gibbsian measures

Author(s): A.C.D. van Enter and C. Kuelske

Abstract: In this contribution we discuss the role disordered (or random) systems have played in the study of non-Gibbsian measures. This role has two main aspects, the distinction between which has not always been fully clear: 1) {\em From} disordered systems: Disordered systems can be used as a tool; analogies with, as well as results and methods from the study of random systems can be employed to investigate non-Gibbsian properties of a variety of measures of physical and mathematical interest. 2) {\em Of} disordered systems: Non-Gibbsianness is a property of various (joint) measures describing quenched disordered systems. We discuss and review this distinction and a number of results related to these issues. Moreover, we discuss the mean-field version of the non-Gibbsian property, and present some ideas how a Kac limit approach might connect the finite-range and the mean-field non-Gibbsian properties.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math-ph/0602047
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0602047 (alternate)

4035. Spatial Random Field Models Inspired from Statistical Physics with Applications in the Geosciences

Author(s): D. T. Hristopulos

Abstract: The spatial structure of fluctuations in spatially inhomogeneous processes can be modeled in terms of Gibbs random fields. A local low energy estimator (LLEE) is proposed for the interpolation (prediction) of such processes at points where observations are not available. The LLEE approximates the spatial dependence of the data and the unknown values at the estimation points by low-lying excitations of a suitable energy functional. It is shown that the LLEE is a linear, unbiased, non-exact estimator. In addition, an expression for the uncertainty (standard deviation) of the estimate is derived.

http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0510035
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/physics/0510035 (alternate)

4036. The expected number of zeros of a random system of $p$-adic polynomials

Author(s): Steven N. Evans

Abstract: We study the simultaneous zeros of a random family of $d$ polynomials in $d$ variables over the $p$-adic numbers. For a family of natural models, we obtain an explicit constant for the expected number of zeros that lie in the $d$-fold Cartesian product of the $p$-adic integers. This expected value, which is \[ (1 + p^{-1} + p^{-2} + ... + p^{-d})^{-1} \] for the simplest model, is independent of the degree of the polynomials.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602478
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602478 (alternate)

4037. Spectral gaps in Wasserstein distances and the 2D stochastic Navier-Stokes equations

Author(s): Martin Hairer and Jonathan C. Mattingly

Abstract: We develop a general method that allows to show the existence of spectral gaps for Markov semigroups on Banach spaces. Unlike most previous work, the type of norm we consider for this analysis is neither a weighted supremum norm nor an L^p-type norm, but involves the derivative of the observable as well and hence can be seen as a type of 1--Wasserstein distance. This turns out to be a suitable approach for infinite-dimensional spaces where the usual Harris or Doeblin conditions, which are geared to total variation convergence, regularly fail to hold. In the first part of this paper, we consider semigroups that have uniform behaviour which one can view as an extension of Doeblin's condition. We then proceed to study situations where the behaviour is not so uniform, but the system has a suitable Lyapunov structure, leading to a type of Harris condition. We finally show that the latter condition is satisfied by the two-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokers equations, even in situations where the forcing is extremely degenerate. Using the convergence result, we show shat the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations' invariant measures depend continuously on the viscosity and the structure of the forcing.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602479
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602479 (alternate)

4038. Rates for branching particle approximations of continuous-discrete filters

Author(s): Michael A. Kouritzin and Wei Sun

Abstract: Herein, we analyze an efficient branching particle method for asymptotic solutions to a class of continuous-discrete filtering problems. Suppose that $t\to X_t$ is a Markov process and we wish to calculate the measure-valued process $t\to\mu_t(\cdot)\doteq P\{X_t\in \cdot|\sigma\{Y_{t_k}, t_k\leq t\}\}$, where $t_k=k\epsilon$ and $Y_{t_k}$ is a distorted, corrupted, partial observation of $X_{t_k}$. Then, one constructs a particle system with observation-dependent branching and $n$ initial particles whose empirical measure at time $t$, $\mu_t^n$, closely approximates $\mu_t$. Each particle evolves independently of the other particles according to the law of the signal between observation times $t_k$, and branches with small probability at an observation time. For filtering problems where $\epsilon$ is very small, using the algorithm considered in this paper requires far fewer computations than other algorithms that branch or interact all particles regardless of the value of $\epsilon$. We analyze the algorithm on L\'{e}vy-stable signals and give rates of convergence for $E^{1/2}\{\|\mu^n_t-\mu_t\|_{\gamma}^2\}$, where $\Vert\cdot\Vert_{\gamma}$ is a Sobolev norm, as well as related convergence results.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602488
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602488 (alternate)

4039. Workload reduction of a generalized Brownian network

Author(s): J. M. Harrison and R. J. Williams

Abstract: We consider a dynamic control problem associated with a generalized Brownian network, the objective being to minimize expected discounted cost over an infinite planning horizon. In this Brownian control problem (BCP), both the system manager's control and the associated cumulative cost process may be locally of unbounded variation. Due to this aspect of the cost process, both the precise statement of the problem and its analysis involve delicate technical issues. We show that the BCP is equivalent, in a certain sense, to a reduced Brownian control problem (RBCP) of lower dimension. The RBCP is a singular stochastic control problem, in which both the controls and the cumulative cost process are locally of bounded variation.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602495
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602495 (alternate)

4040. A modified Poincare inequality and its application to First Passage Percolation

Author(s): Michel Benaim and Raphael Rossignol

Abstract: We prove a new functional inequality for a countable product of Gaussian measures which is the exact counterpart of an inequality by Talagrand for products of Bernoulli measures. This inequality improves on the classical Poincare inequality for Gaussian measures. As an application, we prove that First Passage Percolation has sublinear variance when the edge times distribution belongs to a wide class of continuous distributions, including the exponential one. This extends a result by Benjamini, Kalai and Schramm, valid for positive Bernoulli edge times.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602496
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602496 (alternate)

4041. Rate of convergence in the multidimensional central limit theorem for stationary processes. Application to the Knudsen gas and to the Sinai billiard

Author(s): Fran\c{c}oise P\`{e}ne

Abstract: We show how Rio's method [Probab. Theory Related Fields 104 (1996) 255--282] can be adapted to establish a rate of convergence in ${\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}}$ in the multidimensional central limit theorem for some stationary processes in the sense of the Kantorovich metric. We give two applications of this general result: in the case of the Knudsen gas and in the case of the Sinai billiard.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602501
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602501 (alternate)

4042. Error expansion for the discretization of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

Author(s): Emmanuel Gobet (LMC - IMAG) and C\'{e}line Labart (CMAP)

Abstract: We study the error induced by the time discretization of a decoupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations $(X,Y,Z)$. The forward component $X$ is the solution of a Brownian stochastic differential equation and is approximated by a Euler scheme $X^N$ with $N$ time steps. The backward component is approximated by a backward scheme. Firstly, we prove that the errors $(Y^N-Y,Z^N-Z)$ measured in the strong $L\_p$-sense ($p \geq 1$) are of order $N^{-1/2}$ (this generalizes the results by Zhang 2004). Secondly, an error expansion is derived: surprisingly, the first term is proportional to $X^N-X$ while residual terms are of order $N^{-1}$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602503
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602503 (alternate)

4043. MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

Author(s): Jan Poland and Marcus Hutter

Abstract: The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602505
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0602505 (alternate)

4044. The loop-erased random walk and the uniform spanning tree on the four-dimensional discrete torus

Author(s): Jason Schweinsberg

Abstract: Let $x$ and $y$ be points chosen uniformly at random from $\Z_n^4$, the four-dimensional discrete torus with side length $n$. We show that the length of the loop-erased random walk from $x$ to $y$ is of order $n^2 (\log n)^{1/6}$, resolving a conjecture of Benjamini and Kozma. We also show that the scaling limit of the uniform spanning tree on $\Z_n^4$ is the Brownian continuum random tree of Aldous. Our proofs use the techniques developed by Peres and Revelle, who studied the scaling limits of the uniform spanning tree on a large class of finite graphs that includes the $d$-dimensional discrete torus for $d \geq 5$, in combination with results of Lawler concerning intersections of four-dimensional random walks.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602515
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602515 (alternate)

4045. Atlas models of equity markets

Author(s): Adrian D. Banner and Robert Fernholz and Ioannis Karatzas

Abstract: Atlas-type models are constant-parameter models of uncorrelated stocks for equity markets with a stable capital distribution, in which the growth rates and variances depend on rank. The simplest such model assigns the same, constant variance to all stocks; zero rate of growth to all stocks but the smallest; and positive growth rate to the smallest, the Atlas stock. In this paper we study the basic properties of this class of models, as well as the behavior of various portfolios in their midst. Of particular interest are portfolios that do not contain the Atlas stock.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602521
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602521 (alternate)

4046. Exact simulation of diffusions

Author(s): Alexandros Beskos and Gareth O. Roberts

Abstract: We describe a new, surprisingly simple algorithm, that simulates exact sample paths of a class of stochastic differential equations. It involves rejection sampling and, when applicable, returns the location of the path at a random collection of time instances. The path can then be completed without further reference to the dynamics of the target process.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602523
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602523 (alternate)

4047. Genealogical particle analysis of rare events

Author(s): Pierre Del Moral and Josselin Garnier

Abstract: In this paper an original interacting particle system approach is developed for studying Markov chains in rare event regimes. The proposed particle system is theoretically studied through a genealogical tree interpretation of Feynman--Kac path measures. The algorithmic implementation of the particle system is presented. An estimator for the probability of occurrence of a rare event is proposed and its variance is computed, which allows to compare and to optimize different versions of the algorithm. Applications and numerical implementations are discussed. First, we apply the particle system technique to a toy model (a Gaussian random walk), which permits to illustrate the theoretical predictions. Second, we address a physically relevant problem consisting in the estimation of the outage probability due to polarization-mode dispersion in optical fibers.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602525
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602525 (alternate)

4048. Scheduling control for queueing systems with many servers: asymptotic optimality in heavy traffic

Author(s): Rami Atar

Abstract: A multiclass queueing system is considered, with heterogeneous service stations, each consisting of many servers with identical capabilities. An optimal control problem is formulated, where the control corresponds to scheduling and routing, and the cost is a cumulative discounted functional of the system's state. We examine two versions of the problem: ``nonpreemptive,'' where service is uninterruptible, and ``preemptive,'' where service to a customer can be interrupted and then resumed, possibly at a different station. We study the problem in the asymptotic heavy traffic regime proposed by Halfin and Whitt, in which the arrival rates and the number of servers at each station grow without bound. The two versions of the problem are not, in general, asymptotically equivalent in this regime, with the preemptive version showing an asymptotic behavior that is, in a sense, much simpler. Under appropriate assumptions on the structure of the system we show: (i) The value function for the preemptive problem converges to $V$, the value of a related diffusion control problem. (ii) The two versions of the problem are asymptotically equivalent, and in particular nonpreemptive policies can be constructed that asymptotically achieve the value $V$. The construction of these policies is based on a Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation associated with $V$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602526
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602526 (alternate)

4049. Analysis of SPDEs Arising in Path Sampling Part II: The Nonlinear Case

Author(s): M. Hairer and A. M. Stuart and and J. Voss

Abstract: In many applications it is important to be able to sample paths of SDEs conditional on observations of various kinds. This paper studies SPDEs which solve such sampling problems. The SPDE may be viewed as an infinite dimensional analogue of the Langevin SDE used in finite dimensional sampling. In this paper nonlinear SDEs, leading to nonlinear SPDEs for the sampling, are studied. In addition, a class of preconditioned SPDEs is studied, found by applying a Green's operator to the SPDE in such a way that the invariant measure remains unchanged; such infinite dimensional evolution equations are important for the development of practical algorithms for sampling infinite dimensional problems. The resulting SPDEs provide several significant challenges in the theory of SPDEs. The two primary ones are the presence of nonlinear boundary conditions, involving first order derivatives, and a loss of the smoothing property in the case of the pre-conditioned SPDEs. These challenges are overcome and a theory of existence, uniqueness and ergodicity developed in sufficient generality to subsume the sampling problems of interest to us. The Gaussian theory developed in Part~I of this paper considers Gaussian SDEs, leading to linear Gaussian SPDEs for sampling. This Gaussian theory is used as the basis for deriving nonlinear SPDEs which effect the desired sampling in the nonlinear case, via a change of measure.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601092
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601092 (alternate)

4050. Statistical Romberg extrapolation: A new variance reduction method and applications to option pricing

Author(s): Ahmed Kebaier

Abstract: We study the approximation of $\mathbb{E}f(X_T)$ by a Monte Carlo algorithm, where $X$ is the solution of a stochastic differential equation and $f$ is a given function. We introduce a new variance reduction method, which can be viewed as a statistical analogue of Romberg extrapolation method. Namely, we use two Euler schemes with steps $\delta$ and $\delta^{\beta},0<\beta<1$. This leads to an algorithm which, for a given level of the statistical error, has a complexity significantly lower than the complexity of the standard Monte Carlo method. We analyze the asymptotic error of this algorithm in the context of general (possibly degenerate) diffusions. In order to find the optimal $\beta$ (which turns out to be $\beta=1/2$), we establish a central limit type theorem, based on a result of Jacod and Protter for the asymptotic distribution of the error in the Euler scheme. We test our method on various examples. In particular, we adapt it to Asian options. In this setting, we have a CLT and, as a by-product, an explicit expansion of the discretization error.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602529
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602529 (alternate)

4051. A theory of stochastic integration for bond markets

Author(s): M. De Donno and M. Pratelli

Abstract: We introduce a theory of stochastic integration with respect to a family of semimartingales depending on a continuous parameter, as a mathematical background to the theory of bond markets. We apply our results to the problem of super-replication and utility maximization from terminal wealth in a bond market. Finally, we compare our approach to those already existing in literature.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602532
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602532 (alternate)

4052. On random almost periodic trigonometric polynomials and applications to ergodic theory

Author(s): Guy Cohen and Christophe Cuny

Abstract: We study random exponential sums of the form $\sum_{k=1}^nX_k\times\ex p\{i(\lambda_k^{(1)}t_1+...+\lambda_k^{(s)}t_s)\}$, where $\{X_n\}$ is a sequence of random variables and $\{\lambda_n^{(i)}:1\leq i\leq s\}$ are sequences of real numbers. We obtain uniform estimates (on compact sets) of such sums, for independent centered $\{X_n\}$ or bounded $\{X_n\}$ satisfying some mixing conditions. These results generalize recent results of Weber [Math. Inequal. Appl. 3 (2000) 443--457] and Fan and Schneider [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} Probab. Statist. 39 (2003) 193--216] in several directions. As applications we derive conditions for uniform convergence of these sums on compact sets. We also obtain random ergodic theorems for finitely many commuting measure-preserving point transformations of a probability space. Finally, we show how some of our results allow to derive the Wiener--Wintner property (introduced by Assani [Ergodic Theory Dynam. Systems 23 (2003) 1637--1654]) for certain functions on certain dynamical systems.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602543
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602543 (alternate)

4053. A Gaussian kinematic formula

Author(s): Jonathan E. Taylor

Abstract: In this paper we consider probabilistic analogues of some classical integral geometric formulae: Weyl--Steiner tube formulae and the Chern--Federer kinematic fundamental formula. The probabilistic building blocks are smooth, real-valued random fields built up from i.i.d. copies of centered, unit-variance smooth Gaussian fields on a manifold $M$. Specifically, we consider random fields of the form $f_p=F(y_1(p),...,y_k(p))$ for $F\in C^2(\mathbb{R}^k;\mathbb{R})$ and $(y_1,...,y_k)$ a vector of $C^2$ i.i.d. centered, unit-variance Gaussian fields. The analogue of the Weyl--Steiner formula for such Gaussian-related fields involves a power series expansion for the Gaussian, rather than Lebesgue, volume of tubes: that is, power series expansions related to the marginal distribution of the field $f$. The formal expansions of the Gaussian volume of a tube are of independent geometric interest. As in the classical Weyl--Steiner formulae, the coefficients in these expansions show up in a kinematic formula for the expected Euler characteristic, $\chi$, of the excursion sets $M\cap f^{-1}[u,+\infty)=M\cap y^{-1}(F^{-1}[u,+\infty))$ of the field $f$. The motivation for studying the expected Euler characteristic comes from the well-known approximation $\mathbb{P}[\sup_{p\in M}f(p)\geq u]\simeq\mathbb{E}[\chi(f^{-1}[u,+\infty))]$.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602545
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602545 (alternate)

4054. Notes on the two-dimensional fractional Brownian motion

Author(s): Fabrice Baudoin and David Nualart

Abstract: We study the two-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>{1/2}$. In particular, we show, using stochastic calculus, that this process admits a skew-product decomposition and deduce from this representation some asymptotic properties of the motion.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602547
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602547 (alternate)

4055. Logarithmic Sobolev Inequalities for Inhomogeneous Markov Semigroups

Author(s): Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Collet (JAD) and Florent Malrieu (IRMAR)

Abstract: We investigate the dissipativity properties of a class of scalar second order parabolic partial differential equations with time-dependent coefficients. We provide explicit condition on the drift term which ensure that the relative entropy of one particular orbit with respect to some other one decreases to zero. The decay rate is obtained explicitly by the use of a Sobolev logarithmic inequality for the associated semigroup, which is derived by an adaptation of Bakry's $\Gamma-$ calculus. As a byproduct, the systematic method for constructing entropies which we propose here also yields the well-known intermediate asymptotics for the heat equation in a very quick way, and without having to rescale the original equation.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602548
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602548 (alternate)

4056. Exact inequalities for sums of asymmetric random variables, with applications

Author(s): Iosif Pinelis

Abstract: Let $\BS_1,...,\BS_n$ be independent identically distributed random variables each having the standardized Bernoulli distribution with parameter $p\in(0,1)$. Let $m_*(p):=(1+p+2p^2)/(2\sqrt{p-p^2}+4p^2)$ if $0

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602556
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602556 (alternate)

4057. Large deviation approach to non equilibrium processes in stochastic lattice gases

Author(s): L. Bertini and A. De Sole and D. Gabrielli and G. Jona-Lasinio and C. Landim

Abstract: We present a review of recent work on the statistical mechanics of non equilibrium processes based on the analysis of large deviations properties of microscopic systems. Stochastic lattice gases are non trivial models of such phenomena and can be studied rigorously providing a source of challenging mathematical problems. In this way, some principles of wide validity have been obtained leading to interesting physical consequences.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602557
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0602557 (alternate)

4058. Sparse reconstruction by convex relaxation: Fourier and Gaussian measurements

Author(s): Mark Rudelson and Roman Vershynin

Abstract: We want to exactly reconstruct a sparse signal f (a vector in R^n of small support) from few linear measurements of f (inner products with some fixed vectors). A nice and intuitive reconstruction by Linear Programming has been advocated since 80-ies by Dave Donoho and his collaborators. Namely, one can relax the reconstruction problem, which is highly nonconvex, to a convex problem -- and, moreover, to a linear program. However, when is exactly the reconstruction problem equivalent to its convex relaxation is an open question. Recent work of many authors shows that the number of measurements k(r,n) needed to exactly reconstruct any r-sparse signal f of length n (a vector in R^n of support r) from its linear measurements with the convex relaxation method is usually O(r polylog(n)). However, known estimates of the number of measurements k(r,n) involve huge constants, in spite of very good performance of the algorithms in practice. In this paper, we consider random Gaussian measurements and random Fourier measurements (a frequency sample of f). For Gaussian measurements, we prove the first guarantees with reasonable constants: k(r,n) < 12 r (2 + log(n/r)), which is optimal up to constants. For Fourier measurements, we prove the best known bound k(r,n) = O(r log(n) . log^2(r) log(r log n)), which is optimal within the log log n and log^2 r factors. Our arguments are based on the technique of Geometric Functional Analysis and Probability in Banach spaces, in particular of Mark Rudelson's sampling method for random vectors in the isotropic position.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0602559
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NA/0602559 (alternate)

4059. Analysis of SPDEs Arising in Path Sampling Part I: The Gaussian Case

Author(s): M. Hairer and A. M. Stuart and J. Voss and and P. Wiberg

Abstract: In many applications it is important to be able to sample paths of SDEs conditional on observations of various kinds. This paper studies SPDEs which solve such sampling problems. The SPDE may be viewed as an infinite dimensional analogue of the Langevin SDE used in finite dimensional sampling. Here the theory is developed for conditioned Gaussian processes for which the resulting SPDE is linear. Applications include the Kalman-Bucy filter/smoother. A companion paper studies the nonlinear case, building on the linear analysis provided here.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601095
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601095 (alternate)

4060. Transient random walks on 2d-oriented lattices

Author(s): Nadine Guillotin-Plantard and Arnaud Le Ny

Abstract: We study the asymptotic behavior of the simple random walk on oriented versions of $\mathbb{Z}^2$. The considered lattices are not directed on the vertical axis but unidirectional on the horizontal one, with random orientations whose distributions are generated by a dynamical system. We find a sufficient condition on the smoothness of the generation for the transience of the simple random walk on almost every such oriented lattices, and as an illustration we provide a wide class of examples of inhomogeneous or correlated distributions of the orientations. For ergodic dynamical systems, we also prove a strong law of large numbers and, in the particular case of i.i.d. orientations, we solve an open problem and prove a functional limit theorem in a corresponding space D of cadlag functions, with an unconventional normalization.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601102
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601102 (alternate)

4061. Heavy-Traffic Optimality of a Stochastic Network under Utility-Maximizing Resource Control

Author(s): Heng-Qing Ye and David D. Yao

Abstract: We study a stochastic network that consists of a set of servers processing multiple classes of jobs. Each class of jobs requires a concurrent occupancy of several servers while being processed, and each server is shared among the job classes in a head-of-the-line processor-sharing mechanism. The allocation of the service capacities is a real-time control mechanism: in each network state, the control is the solution to an optimization problem that maximizes a general utility function. Whereas this resource control optimizes in a ``greedy'' fashion, with respect to each state, we establish its asymptotic optimality in terms of (a) deriving the fluid and diffusion limits of the network under this control, and (b) identifying a cost function that is minimized in the diffusion limit, along with a characterization of the so-called fixed point state of the network.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601088
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OC/0601088 (alternate)

4062. Arbitrary threshold widths for monotone symmetric properties

Author(s): Rapha\"el Rossignol

Abstract: We investigate the threshold widths of some symmetric properties which range asymptotically between 1/\sqrt{n} and 1/(log n). These properties are built using a combination of failure sets arising from reliability theory. This combination of sets is simply called a product. Some general results on the threshold width of the product of two sets A and B in terms of the threshold locations and widths of A and B are provided.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601116
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601116 (alternate)

4063. Navigation on a Poisson point process

Author(s): Charles Bordenave

Abstract: On a locally finite point set, a navigation defines a path through the point set from a point to an other. The set of paths leading to a given point defines a tree, the navigation tree. In this article, we analyze the properties of the navigation tree when the point set is a Poisson point process on $\R^d$. We examine the distribution of stable functionals, the local weak convergence of the navigation tree, the asymptotic average of a functional along a path, the shape of the navigation tree and its topological ends. We illustrate our work in the small world graphs, and new results are established. This work is motivated by applications in computational geometry and in self-organizing networks.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601122
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601122 (alternate)

4064. Bulk diffusion in a system with site disorder

Author(s): Jeremy Quastel

Abstract: We consider a system of random walks in a random environment interacting via exclusion. The model is reversible with respect to a family of disordered Bernoulli measures. Assuming some weak mixing conditions, it is shown that under diffusive scaling the system has a deterministic hydrodynamic limit which holds for almost every realization of the environment. The limit is a nonlinear diffusion equation with diffusion coefficient given by a variational formula. The model is nongradient and the method used is the ``long jump'' variation of the standard nongradient method, which is a type of renormalization. The proof is valid in all dimensions.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601124
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0601124 (alternate)

4065. Random sets of isomorphism of linear operators on Hilbert space

Author(s): Roman Vershynin

Abstract: This note deals with a problem of the probabilistic Ramsey theory. Given a linear operator T on a Hilbert space with an orthogonal basis, we define the isomorphic structure Sigma(T) as the family of all finite subsets of the basis such that T restricted to their span is a nice isomorphism. We give an optimal bound on the size of Sigma(T). This improves and extends in several ways the principle of restricted invertibility due to Bourgain and Tzafriri. With an appropriate notion of randomness, we obtain a randomized principle of restricted invertibility.

http://arXiv.org/abs/math/0601112
http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.FA/0601112 (alternate)

4066. On Sample Functions Behavior of Stable Processes

Author(s): Lev Sakhnovich

Abstract: We investigate the asymptotic behavior of sample functions of stable processes when $t