Probability Abstracts 98

This document contains abstracts 5550-5756 from May-1-2007 to June-30-2007.
They have been mailed on July 4th, 2007.

5550. Packing-Dimension Profiles and Fractional Brownian Motion

Author(s): Davar Khoshnevisan and Yimin Xiao

Abstract: In order to compute the packing dimension of orthogonal projections Falconer and Howroyd (1997) introduced a family of packing dimension profiles ${\rm Dim}_s$ that are parametrized by real numbers $s>0$. Subsequently, Howroyd (2001) introduced alternate $s$-dimensional packing dimension profiles $\hbox{${\rm P}$-$\dim$}_s$ and proved, among many other things, that $\hbox{${\rm P}$-$\dim$}_s E={\rm Dim}_s E$ for all integers $s>0$ and all analytic sets $E\subseteq\R^N$. The goal of this article is to prove that $\hbox{${\rm P}$-$\dim$}_s E={\rm Dim}_s E$ for all real numbers $s>0$ and analytic sets $E\subseteq\R^N$. This answers a question of Howroyd (2001, p. 159). Our proof hinges on a new property of fractional Brownian motion.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0135

5551. Dynamical percolation on general trees

Author(s): Davar Khoshnevisan

Abstract: H\"aggstr\"om, Peres, and Steif (1997) have introduced a dynamical version of percolation on a graph $G$. When $G$ is a tree they derived a necessary and sufficient condition for percolation to exist at some time $t$. In the case that $G$ is a spherically symmetric tree, H\"aggstr\"om, Peres, and Steif (1997) derived a necessary and sufficient condition for percolation to exist at some time $t$ in a given target set $D$. The main result of the present paper is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of percolation, at some time $t\in D$, in the case that the underlying tree is not necessary spherically symmetric. This answers a question of Yuval Peres (personal communication). We present also a formula for the Hausdorff dimension of the set of exceptional times of percolation.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0140

5552. Mutual Fund Theorems when Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin

Author(s): Erhan Bayraktar and Virginia R. Young

Abstract: We show that the mutual fund theorems of Merton (1971) extend to the problem of optimal investment to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. We obtain four such theorems by considering a financial market both with and without a riskless asset and by considering both constant and random consumption.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0053

5553. Brownian subordinators and fractional Cauchy problems

Author(s): Boris Baeumer and Mark M. Meerschaert and Erkan Nane

Abstract: A Brownian time process is a Markov process subordinated to the absolute value of an independent one-dimensional Brownian motion. Its transition densities solve an initial value problem involving the square of the generator of the original Markov process. An apparently unrelated class of processes, emerging as the scaling limits of continuous time random walks, involve subordination to the inverse or hitting time process of a classical stable subordinator. The resulting densities solve fractional Cauchy problems, an extension that involves fractional derivatives in time. In this paper, we will show a close and unexpected connection between these two classes of processes, and consequently, an equivalence between these two families of partial differential equations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0168

5554. The order of the largest complete minor in a random graph

Author(s): N. Fountoulakis and D. K\"uhn and D. Osthus

Abstract: Let ccl(G) denote the order of the largest complete minor in a graph G (also called the contraction clique number) and let G(n,p) denote a random graph on n vertices with edge probability p. Bollobas, Catlin and Erdos asymptotically determined ccl(G (n,p)) when p is a constant. Luczak, Pittel and Wierman gave bounds on ccl(G(n,p)) when p is very close to 1/n, i.e. inside the phase transition. Extending the results of Bollobas, Catlin and Erdos, we determine ccl(G(n,p)) quite tightly, for p>C/n where C is a large constant. If p=C/n, for an arbitrary constant C>1, then we show that asymptotically almost surely ccl(G (n,p)) is of order square-root of n. This answers a question of Krivelevich and Sudakov.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0325

5555. Merging of opinions in game-theoretic probability

Author(s): Vladimir Vovk

Abstract: This paper gives game-theoretic versions of several results on "merging of opinions" obtained in measure-theoretic probability and algorithmic randomness theory. An advantage of the game-theoretic versions over the measure-theoretic results is that they are pointwise, their advantage over the algorithmic randomness results is that they are non-asymptotic, but the most important advantage over both is that they are very constructive, giving explicit and efficient strategies for players in a game of prediction.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0372

5556. Large deviations for multidimensional SDEs with reflection

Author(s): Zongxia Liang

Abstract: The large deviations principles are established for a class of multidimensional degenerate stochastic differential equations with reflecting boundary conditions. The results include two cases where the initial conditions are adapted and anticipated.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0405

5557. When are Swing options bang-bang and how to use it

Author(s): Olivier Aj Bardou (GDF-RDD) and Sandrine Bouthemy (GDF-RDD) and Gilles Pag\`es (PMA)

Abstract: In this paper we investigate a class of swing options with firm constraints in view of the modeling of supply agreements. We show, for a fully general payoff process, that the premium, solution to a stochastic control problem, is concave and piecewise affine as a function of the global constraints of the contract. The existence of bang-bang optimal controls is established for a set of constraints which generates by affinity the whole premium function. When the payoff process is driven by an underlying Markov process, we propose a quantization based recursive backward procedure to price these contracts. A priori error bounds are established, uniformly with respect to the global constraints.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0466

5558. Many Random Walks Are Faster Than One

Author(s): Noga Alon and Chen Avin and Michal Koucky and Gady Kozma and Zvi Lotker and Mark R. Tuttle

Abstract: We consider a fundamental new question regarding random walks on graphs: How long does it take for several independent random walks to cover an entire graph? We study the {\em cover time}, the expected time required to visit every node in a graph at least once, and we show that for a large collection of interesting graphs, running many random walks in parallel yields a speed-up in the cover time that is linear in the number of the parallel walks. We demonstrate that an exponential speed-up is sometimes possible, but that some natural graphs allow only a logarithmic speed-up.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0467

5559. Space-time percolation

Author(s): Geoffrey Grimmett

Abstract: The contact model for the spread of disease may be viewed as a directed percolation model on $\ZZ \times \RR$ in which the continuum axis is oriented in the direction of increasing time. Techniques from percolation have enabled a fairly complete analysis of the contact model at and near its critical point. The corresponding process when the time-axis is unoriented is an undirected percolation model to which now standard techniques may be applied. One may construct in similar vein a random-cluster model on $\ZZ \times \RR$, with associated continuum Ising and Potts models. These models are of independent interest, in addition to providing a path-integral representation of the quantum Ising model with transverse field. This representation may be used to obtain a bound on the entanglement of a finite set of spins in the quantum Ising model on $\ZZ$, where this entanglement is measured via the entropy of the reduced density matrix. The mean-field version of the quantum Ising model gives rise to a random-cluster model on $K_n \times \RR$, thereby extending the Erdos-Renyi random graph on the complete graph $K_n$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0506

5560. Bringing errors into focus

Author(s): Nicolas Bouleau (CIRED)

Abstract: This lecture presents recent advances in the theory of errors propagation. We first explain in which cases the propagation of errors may be performed with a first order differential calculus or needs a second order differential calculus. Then we point out the link between error propagation and the concept of second order vector in differential geometry, emphasizing the existence of a slight ambiguity concerning the bias operator. The third part in devoted to the powerful framework of Dirichlet forms whose main feature is to apply easily to infinite dimensional models including the Wiener space (giving an interpretation of Malliavin calculus in terms of errors), the Poisson space and the Monte Carlo space. In the fourth part we show how an error in the usual mathematical sense, i.e. an approximate quantity, may yield a Dirichlet form and we introduce the four bias operators. Eventually we connect the Dirichlet form with statistics by identifying the square of field operator with the inverse of the Fisher information matrix.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0519

5561. Change point estimation for the telegraph process observed at discrete times

Author(s): Alessandro De Gregorio and Stefano M. Iacus

Abstract: The telegraph process models a random motion with finite velocity and it is usually proposed as an alternative to diffusion models. The process describes the position of a particle moving on the real line, alternatively with constant velocity $+ v$ or $-v$. The changes of direction are governed by an homogeneous Poisson process with rate $\lambda >0.$ In this paper, we consider a change point estimation problem for the rate of the underlying Poisson process by means of least squares method. The consistency and the rate of convergence for the change point estimator are obtained and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Applications to real data are also presented.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0503

5562. Asymptotic behavior of some weighted quadratic and cubic variations of the fractional Brownian motion

Author(s): Ivan Nourdin (PMA)

Abstract: This note is devoted to a fine study of the convergence of some weighted quadratic and cubic variations of a fractional Brownian motion B with Hurst index H in (0,1/2). With the help of Malliavin calculus, we show that, correctly renormalized, the weighted quadratic variation of B that we consider converges in L^2 to an explicit limit when H<1/4, while we conjecture that it converges in law when H>1/4. In the same spirit, we also show that, correctly renormalized, the weighted cubic variation of B converges in L^2 to an explicit limit when H<1/6.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0570

5563. Central Limit Theorem for the Excited Random Walk in dimension $d \geq 2$

Author(s): Jean B\'erard and Alejandro Ram\'irez

Abstract: We prove that a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem hold for the excited random walk model in every dimension $d \geq 2$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0658

5564. Uniqueness and non-uniqueness of chains on half lines

Author(s): R. Fernandez and G. Maillard

Abstract: We establish a one-to-one correspondence between one-sided and two-sided regular systems of conditional probabilities on the half-line that preserves the associated chains and Gibbs measures. As an application, we determine uniqueness and non-uniqueness regimes in one-sided versions of ferromagnetic Ising models with long range interactions. Our study shows that the interplay between chain and Gibbsian theories yields more information than that contained within the known theory of each separate framework. In particular: (i) A Gibbsian construction due to Dyson yields a new family of chains with phase transitions; (ii) these transitions show that a square summability uniqueness condition of chains is false in the general non-shift-invariant setting, and (iii) an uniqueness criterion for chains shows that a Gibbsian conjecture due to Kac and Thompson is false in this half-line setting.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0808

5565. A Berry-Esseen type inequality for convex bodies with an unconditional basis

Author(s): Bo'az Klartag

Abstract: We provide a sharp rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for random vectors with an unconditional, log-concave density. The argument relies on analysis of the Neumann laplacian on convex domains and on the theory of optimal transportation of measures.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0832

5566. Une nouvelle condition d'independance pour le theoreme de la limite centrale

Author(s): Ren\'e Blacher (LJK)

Abstract: We prove a central limit theorem with aassumptions which are many weak than classical conditions

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0853

5567. Poisson approximation for non-backtracking random walks

Author(s): Noga Alon and Eyal Lubetzky

Abstract: Random walks on expander graphs were thoroughly studied, with the important motivation that, under some natural conditions, these walks mix quickly and provide an efficient method of sampling the vertices of a graph. Alon, Benjamini, Lubetzky and Sodin studied non-backtracking random walks on regular graphs, and showed that their mixing rate may be up to twice as fast as that of the simple random walk. As an application, they showed that the maximal number of visits to a vertex, made by a non-backtracking random walk of length $n$ on a high-girth $n$-vertex regular expander, is typically $(1+o(1))\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}$, as in the case of the balls and bins experiment. They further asked whether one can establish the precise distribution of the visits such a walk makes. In this work, we answer the above question by combining a generalized form of Brun's sieve with some extensions of the ideas in Alon et al. Let $N_t$ denote the number of vertices visited precisely $t$ times by a non-backtracking random walk of length $n$ on a regular $n$-vertex expander of fixed degree and girth $g$. We prove that if $g=\omega(1)$, then for any fixed $t$, $N_t/n$ is typically $\frac{1}{\mathrm{e}t!}+o(1)$. Furthermore, if $g=\Omega(\log\log n)$, then $N_t/n$ is typically $\frac{1+o(1)}{\mathrm{e}t!}$ uniformly on all $t \leq (1-o(1))\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}$ and 0 for all $t \geq (1+o(1))\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}$. In particular, we obtain the above result on the typical maximal number of visits to a single vertex, with an improved threshold window. The essence of the proof lies in showing that variables counting the number of visits to a set of sufficiently distant vertices are asymptotically independent Poisson variables.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0867

5568. Ultrametric and tree potential

Author(s): Claude Dellacherie and Servet Martinez and Jaime San Martin

Abstract: We study infinite tree and ultrametric matrices, and their action on the boundary of the tree. For each tree matrix we show the existence of a symmetric random walk associated to it and we study its Green potential. We provide a representation theorem for harmonic functions that includes simple expressions for any increasing harmonic function and the Martin kernel. In the boundary, we construct the Markov kernel whose Green function is the extension of the matrix and we simulate it by using a cascade of killing independent exponential random variables and conditionally independent uniform variables. For ultrametric matrices we supply probabilistic conditions to study its potential properties when immersed in its minimal tree matrix extension.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0967

5569. Reflected backward SDEs with two barriers under monotonicity and general increasing conditions

Author(s): Mingyu Xu

Abstract: In this paper, we prove the existence and uniqueness result of the reflected BSDE with two continuous barriers under monotonicity and general increasing condition on $y$, with Lipschitz condition on $z$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1026

5570. Combinatorics of Truncated Random Unitary Matrices

Author(s): Jonathan Novak

Abstract: We investigate the combinatorics of truncated Haar-distributed random unitary matrices. Specifically, if $U$ is a random matrix from the unitary group $U(d),$ let $U_k$ denote its $k \times k$ upper left corner, where $1 \leq k \leq d.$ We give an explicit formula for the moments of the trace of $U_k$ in terms of pairs of Standard Young Tableaux on distinct shapes. This formula can be restated as counting configurations of non-intersecting walkers on the integer lattice. Our main tool is the Colour-Flavour Transformation of lattice gauge theory.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0984

5571. Fluctuations of eigenvalues and second order Poincare inequalities

Author(s): Sourav Chatterjee

Abstract: Linear statistics of eigenvalues in many familiar classes of random matrices are known to obey gaussian central limit theorems. The proofs of such results are usually rather difficult, involving hard computations specific to the model in question. In this article we attempt to formulate a unified technique for deriving such results via relatively soft arguments. Our approach is based on a notion of `extending the Poincare inequality to the second order' via Stein's method of normal approximation. Just as ordinary Poincare inequalities give variance bounds, our second order Poincare inequalities (based on second order partial derivatives) give central limit theorems. A number of examples, complete with total variation error bounds, are worked out. On the downside, we require stringent distributional assumptions and our theorems do not provide information about the variances of the linear statistics, which have to be computed separately.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1224

5572. Diffusion covariation and co-jumps in bidimensional asset price processes with stochastic volatility and infinite activity Levy jumps

Author(s): Fabio Gobbi and Cecilia Mancini

Abstract: In this paper we consider two processes driven by diffusions and jumps. The jump components are Levy processes and they can both have finite activity and infinite activity. Given discrete observations we estimate the covariation between the two diffusion parts and the co-jumps. The detection of the co-jumps allows to gain insight in the dependence structure of the jump components and has important applications in finance. Our estimators are based on a threshold principle allowing to isolate the jumps. This work follows Gobbi and Mancini (2006) where the asymptotic normality for the estimator of the covariation, with convergence speed given by the squared root of h, was obtained when the jump components have finite activity. Here we show that the speed is the squared root of h only when the activity of the jump components is moderate.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1268

5573. A Note on SLE Curves

Author(s): Qingyang Guan

Abstract: By constructing super harmonic functions, we give a direct proof for the existence of the continuous curve of SLE_8. This method can also be applied to driven function of Brownian motion with variant speeds.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1273

5574. Slow Convergence in Bootstrap Percolation

Author(s): Janko Gravner and Alexander E. Holroyd

Abstract: In the bootstrap percolation model, sites in an L by L square are initially infected independently with probability p. At subsequent steps, a healthy site becomes infected if it has at least 2 infected neighbours. As (L,p)->(infinity,0), the probability that the entire square is eventually infected is known to undergo a phase transition in the parameter p log L, occurring asymptotically at lambda = pi^2/18. We prove that the discrepancy between the critical parameter and its limit lambda is at least Omega((log L)^(-1/2)). In contrast, the critical window has width only Theta((log L)^(-1)). For the so-called modified model, we prove rigorous explicit bounds which imply for example that the relative discrepancy is at least 1% even when L = 10^3000. Our results shed some light on the observed differences between simulations and rigorous asymptotics.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1347

5575. Survival of a diffusing particle in an expanding cage

Author(s): Alan J Bray and Richard Smith

Abstract: We consider a Brownian particle, with diffusion constant D, moving inside an expanding d-dimensional sphere whose surface is an absorbing boundary for the particle. The sphere has initial radius L_0 and expands at a constant rate c. We calculate the joint probability density, p(r,t|r_0), that the particle survives until time t, and is at a distance r from the centre of the sphere, given that it started at a distance r_0 from the centre.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.0501

5576. On the approximate normality of eigenfunctions of the Laplacian

Author(s): Elizabeth Meckes

Abstract: The main result of this paper is a bound on the distance between the distribution of an eigenfunction of the Laplacian on a compact Riemannian manifold and the Gaussian distribution. If $X$ is a random point on a manifold $M$ and $f$ is an eigenfunction of the Laplacian with $L^2$-norm one and eigenvalue $-\mu$, then $$d_{TV}(f(X),Z)\le\frac{2}{\mu}\E\big|\|\nabla f(X)\|^2-\E\|\nabla f(X) \|^2\big|.$$ This result is applied to construct specific examples of spherical harmonics of arbitrary (odd) degree which are close to Gaussian in distribution. A second application is given to random linear combinations of eigenfunctions on flat tori.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1342

5577. Asymptotic velocity of one dimensional diffusions with periodic drift

Author(s): P.Collet S.Martinez

Abstract: We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the solution of one dimensional stochastic differential equations and Langevin equations in periodic backgrounds with zero average. We prove that in several such models, there is generically a non vanishing asymptotic velocity, despite of the fact that the average of the background is zero.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1435

5578. Boundary Harnack inequalities for regional fractional Laplacian

Author(s): Qingyang Guan

Abstract: Let 1<\alpha<2. We prove boundary Harnack inequalities for regional fractional Laplacian on C^{1,1} open set G in \R^n. This operator is the generator of the \alpha-stable-like process on G taking \kappa(x,y)I_{G\times G}/|x-y|^{n+\alpha} as the jumping measure. When \kappa is a constant, this explicit boundary Harnack inequality was proved in Bogdan, Burdzy and Chen [9] on C^{1,1} open sets. We prove that it holds also for C^{1,\beta-1} open sets with \kappa\in C^1(\bar{G}\times\bar{G}) bounded between two positive values, where 1<\alpha<\beta\leq 2.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1614

5579. Universality at the Soft edge for some white sample covariance matrices ensembles

Author(s): Sandrine Peche

Abstract: For sample covariance matrices with iid entries with sub-Gaussian tails, when both the number of samples and the number of variables become large and the ratio approaches to one, it is a well-known result of A. Soshnikov that the limiting distribution of the largest eigenvalue is same as the of Gaussian samples. In this paper, we extend this result to two cases. The first case is when the ratio approaches to an arbitrary finite value. The second case is when the ratio becomes infinity or arbitrarily small.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1701

5580. The Rotor-Router Model on Regular Trees

Author(s): Itamar Landau and Lionel Levine

Abstract: The rotor-router model is a deterministic analogue of random walk. It can be used to define a deterministic growth model analogous to internal DLA. We show that if the initial rotor configuration is acyclic, then the set of occupied sites for rotor-router aggregation on an infinite regular tree is a perfect ball whenever it can be. This is proved by defining the rotor-router group of a graph, which we show is isomorphic to the sandpile group. We also address the question of recurrence and transience: We give two rotor configurations on the infinite ternary tree, one for which chips exactly alternate escaping to infinity with returning to the origin, and one for which every chip returns to the origin. We also characterize the possible "escape sequences" for the ternary tree, that is, binary words $a_1 ... a_n$ for which there exists a rotor configuration so that the $k$-th chip escapes to infinity if and only if $a_k=1$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1562

5581. A coarse graining for the Fortuin-Kasteleyn measure in random media

Author(s): Marc Wouts (PMA)

Abstract: By the mean of a multi-scale analysis we describe the typical geometrical structure of the clusters under the FK measure in random media. Our result holds in any dimension greater or equal to 2 provided that slab percolation occurs under the annealed measure, which should be the case in the whole supercritical phase. This work extends the one of Pisztora and provides an essential tool for the analysis of the supercritical regime in disordered FK models and in the corresponding disordered Ising and Potts models.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1630

5582. The rate of convergence of Euler approximations for solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion

Author(s): Yuliya Mishura and Georgiy Shevchenko

Abstract: The paper focuses on discrete-type approximations of solutions to non-homogeneous stochastic differential equations (SDEs) involving fractional Brownian motion (fBm). We prove that the rate of convergence for Euler approximations of solutions of pathwise SDEs driven by fBm with Hurst index $H>1/2$ can be estimated by $O(\delta^{2H-1})$ ($\delta$ is the diameter of partition). For discrete-time approximations of Skorohod-type quasilinear equation driven by fBm we prove that the rate of convergence is $O(\delta^H)$. We also establish that the rate of weak convergence for the approximations of solutions of pathwise SDE with bounded smooth coefficients is $O(\delta)$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1773

5583. Semimartingale Stochastic Approximation Procedures and Recursive Estimation

Author(s): N. Lazrieva and T. Sharia and T. Toronjadze

Abstract: The semimartingale stochastic approximation procedure, namely, the Robbins-Monro type SDE is introduced which naturally includes both generalized stochastic approximation algorithms with martingale noises and recursive parameter estimation procedures for statistical models associated with semimartingales. General results concerning the asymptotic behaviour of the solution are presented. In particular, the conditions ensuring the convergence, rate of convergence and asymptotic expansion are established. The results concerning the Polyak weighted averaging procedure are also presented.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1794

5584. Anticipated Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

Author(s): Shige Peng and Zhe Yang

Abstract: In this paper, we discuss a new type of differential equations which we call anticipated backward stochastic differential equations (anticipated BSDEs). In these equations the generator includes not only the values of solutions of the present but also the future. We show that these anticipated BSDEs have unique solutions, a comparison theorem for their solutions, and a duality between them and stochastic differential delay equations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1822

5585. Revesibility of chordal SLE

Author(s): Dapeng Zhan

Abstract: We prove that the chordal SLE$_\kappa$ trace is reversible for $\kappa\in(0,4]$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1852

5586. On level crossings for a general class of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes

Author(s): K. A. Borovkov and G. Last

Abstract: We consider a piecewise-deterministic Markov process governed by a jump intensity function, a rate function that determines the behaviour between jumps, and a stochastic kernel describing the conditional distribution of jump sizes. We study the point process of upcrossings of a level $b$ by the Markov process. Our main result shows that, under a suitable scaling $\nu(b)$, the point process converges, as $b$ tends to infinity, weakly to a geometrically compound Poisson process. We also prove a version of Rice's formula relating the stationary density of the process to level crossing intensities. This formula provides an interpretation of the scaling factor $\nu(b)$. While our proof of the limit theorem requires additional assumptions, Rice's formula holds whenever the (stationary) overall intensity of jumps is finite.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1863

5587. A criterion for transience of multidimensional branching random walk in random environment

Author(s): Sebastian M\"uller

Abstract: We develop a criterion for transience for a general model of branching Markov chains. In the case of multi-dimensional branching random walk in random environment (BRWRE) this criterion becomes explicit. In particular, we show that \emph{Condition L} of Comets and Popov is necessary and sufficient for transience as conjectured. Furthermore, the criterion applies to two important classes of branching random walks and implies that the critical branching random walk is transient resp. dies out locally.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1874

5588. Noncommutative Burkholder/Rosenthal inequalities II: applications

Author(s): Marius Junge and Quanhua Xu

Abstract: We show norm estimates for the sum of independent random variables in noncommutative $L_p$-spaces for $1

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1952

5589. Energy of zeros of random sections on Riemann Surface

Author(s): Qi Zhong

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to determine the asymptotic of the average energy of a configuration of N zeros of system of random polynomials of degree N as N tends to infinity and more generally the zeros of random holomorphic sections of a line bundle L over any Riemann surface M. And we compare our results to the well-known minimum of energies.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2000

5590. Optimal quantization for the pricing of swing options

Author(s): Olivier Aj Bardou (GDF-RDD) and Sandrine Bouthemy (GDF-RDD) and Gilles Pag\`es (PMA)

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate a numerical algorithm for the pricing of swing options, relying on the so-called optimal quantization method. The numerical procedure is described in details and numerous simulations are provided to assert its efficiency. In particular, we carry out a comparison with the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2110

5591. A tree approach to $p$-variation and to integration

Author(s): Jean Picard

Abstract: We consider a real-valued path; it is possible to associate a tree to this path, and we explore the relations between the tree, the properties of $p$-variation of the path, and integration with respect to the path. In particular, the fractal dimension of the tree is estimated from the variations of the path, and Young integrals with respect to the path, as well as integrals from the rough paths theory, are written as integrals on the tree. Examples include some stochastic paths such as martingales, L\'evy processes and fractional Brownian motions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2128

5592. Percolation Crossing Formulas and Conformal Field Theory

Author(s): Jacob J. H. Simmons and Peter Kleban and and Robert M. Ziff

Abstract: Using conformal field theory, we derive several new crossing formulas at the two-dimensional percolation point. High-precision simulation confirms these results. Integrating them gives a unified derivation of Cardy's formula for the horizontal crossing probability $\Pi_h(r)$, Watts' formula for the horizontal-vertical crossing probability $\Pi_{hv}(r)$, and Cardy's formula for the expected number of clusters crossing horizontally $\mathcal{N}_h(r)$. The main step in our approach implies the identification of the derivative of one primary operator with another. We present operator identities that support this idea and suggest the presence of additional symmetry in $c=0$ conformal field theories.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1933

5593. Brownian Motion, "Diverse and Undulating"

Author(s): Bertrand Duplantier

Abstract: We describe in detail the history of Brownian motion, as well as the contributions of Einstein, Sutherland, Smoluchowski, Bachelier, Perrin and Langevin to its theory. The always topical importance in physics of the theory of Brownian motion is illustrated by recent biophysical experiments, where it serves, for instance, for the measurement of the pulling force on a single DNA molecule. In a second part, we stress the mathematical importance of the theory of Brownian motion, illustrated by two chosen examples. The by-now classic representation of the Newtonian potential by Brownian motion is explained in an elementary way. We conclude with the description of recent progress seen in the geometry of the planar Brownian curve. At its heart lie the concepts of conformal invariance and multifractality, associated with the potential theory of the Brownian curve itself.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.1951

5594. Predictability, entropy and information of infinite transformations

Author(s): Jon. Aaronson and Kyewon Koh Park

Abstract: We show that a certain type of conservative, ergodic measure preserving transformation always has a maximal zero entropy factor, generated by predictable sets. We also consider distribution asymptotics of information; e.g. for Boole's transformation, information is asymptotically mod-normal, a property shared by certain ergodic, probability preserving transformations with zero entropy.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2148

5595. On the convergence to equilibrium of Kac's random walk on matrices

Author(s): Roberto I. Oliveira

Abstract: We consider Kac's random walk on n-dimensional rotation matrices, where each step is a random rotation in the plane generated by two randomly picked coordinates. We show that this process converges to the uniform (Haar) measure in the (Wasserstein) transportation cost metric in O(n^2 ln n) steps. This improves on previous results of Diaconis/Saloff Coste and Pak/Sidenko and is a ln n factor away from being optimal. Our proof method includes a general result akin to the path coupling method of Bubley and Dyer. Suppose that P is a Markov chain on a Polish length space (M,d) and that for all x,y in M with d(x,y)<< 1 there is a coupling (X,Y) of one step from P from x and y (respectively) that is (c+o(1))-contracting on average. Then the map from a initial distribution m to the distribution mP after one step is c-contracting in the transportation cost metric. Other applications of this result are also presented.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2253

5596. On Randomized Stopping

Author(s): David \v{S}i\v{s}ka and Istv\'an Gy\"ongy

Abstract: A general result on the method of randomized stopping is proved. It is applied to optimal stopping of controlled diffusion processes with unbounded coefficients to reduce it to optimal control problem without stopping. This is motivated by recent results of Krylov on numerical solutions to the Bellman equation.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2302

5597. Cadlag curves of SLE driven by Levy processes

Author(s): Qingyang Guan

Abstract: Schramm Loewner Evolutions (SLE) are random increasing hulls defined through the Loewner equation driven by Brownian motion. It is known that the increasing hulls are generated by continuous curves. When the driving process is of the form \sqrt{\kappa} B+\theta^{1/\alpha}S for a Brownian motion B and a symmetric \alpha-stable process S with \kappa not equal to 4 and 8, we prove that the corresponding increasing hulls are generated by Cadlag curves.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2321

5598. A note on the diffusivity of finite-range asymmetric exclusion processes on Z

Author(s): Jeremy Quastel and Benedek Valko

Abstract: The diffusivity $D(t)$ of finite-range asymmetric exclusion processes on $\mathbb Z$ with non-zero drift is expected to be of order $t^{1/3}$. Sepp\"{a}l\"ainen and Bal\'azs recently proved this conjecture for the nearest neighbor case. We extend their results to general finite range exclusion by proving that the Laplace transform of the diffusivity is of the conjectured order. We also obtain the correct order pointwise upper bound for $D(t)$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2416

5599. On the freezing of variables in random constraint satisfaction problems

Author(s): Guilhem Semerjian

Abstract: The set of solutions of random constraint satisfaction problems (zero energy groundstates of mean-field diluted spin glasses) undergoes several structural phase transitions as the amount of constraints is increased. This set first breaks down into a large number of well separated clusters. At the freezing transition, which is in general distinct from the clustering one, some variables (spins) take the same value in all solutions of a given cluster. In this paper we study the critical behavior around the freezing transition, which appears in the unfrozen phase as the divergence of the sizes of the rearrangements induced in response to the modification of a variable. The formalism is developed on generic constraint satisfaction problems and applied in particular to the random satisfiability of boolean formulas and to the coloring of random graphs. The computation is first performed in random tree ensembles, for which we underline a connection with percolation models and with the reconstruction problem of information theory. The validity of these results for the original random ensembles is then discussed in the framework of the cavity method.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2147

5600. Noncolliding Brownian Motion and Determinantal Processes

Author(s): Makoto Katori and Hideki Tanemura

Abstract: A system of one-dimensional Brownian motions (BMs) conditioned never to collide with each other is realized as (i) Dyson's BM model, which is a process of eigenvalues of hermitian matrix-valued diffusion process in the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), and as (ii) the $h$-transform of absorbing BM in a Weyl chamber, where the harmonic function $h$ is the product of differences of variables (the Vandermonde determinant). The Karlin-McGregor formula gives determinantal expression to the transition probability density of absorbing BM. We show from the Karlin-McGregor formula, if the initial state is in the eigenvalue distribution of GUE, the noncolliding BM is a determinantal process, in the sense that any multitime correlation function is given by a determinant specified by a matrix-kernel. By taking appropriate scaling limits, spatially homogeneous and inhomogeneous infinite determinantal processes are derived. We note that the determinantal processes related with noncolliding diffusion processes have a feature in common such that the matrix-kernels are expressed using spectral projections of appropriate effective Hamiltonians. Using the common properties of matrix-kernels, continuity of processes in time is proved and Dirichlet forms are provided.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2460

5601. On Asymptotic Proximity of Distributions

Author(s): Youri Davydov and Vladimir Rotar

Abstract: We consider some general facts concerning convergence P_{n}-Q_{n}\to 0 as n\to \infty, where P_{n} and Q_{n} are probability measures in a complete separable metric space. The main point is that the sequences {P_{n}} and {Q_{n}} are not assumed to be tight. We compare different possible definitions of the above convergence, and establish some general properties.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2677

5602. Real Zeros and Partitions without singleton blocks

Author(s): Miklos Bona

Abstract: We prove that the generating polynomials of partitions of an $n$-element set into non-singleton blocks, counted by the number of blocks, have real roots only. We apply this information to find the most likely number of blocks. As another application of the real zeros result, we prove that the number of blocks is normally distributed in such partitions. We present a quick way to prove the corresponding statement for cycles of permutations in which each cycle is longer than a given integer $r$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2734

5603. On the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces associated with the fractional and bi-fractional Brownian motions

Author(s): Daniel Alpay and David Levanony

Abstract: We present decompositions of various positive kernels as integrals or sums of positive kernels. Within this framework we study the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces associated with the fractional and bi-fractional Brownian motions. As a tool, we define a new function of two complex variables, which is a natural generalization of the classical Gamma function for the setting we consider

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2863

5604. Optimal Stopping with Rank-Dependent Loss

Author(s): Alexander V. Gnedin

Abstract: For $\tau$ a stopping rule adapted to a sequence of $n$ iid observations, we define the loss to be $\ex [ q(R_\tau)]$, where $R_j$ is the rank of the $j$th observation, and $q$ is a nondecreasing function of the rank. This setting covers both the best choice problem with $q(r)={\bf 1}(r>1)$, and Robbins' problem with $q(r)=r$. As $n\to\infty$ the stopping problem acquires a limiting form which is associated with the planar Poisson process. Inspecting the limit we establish bounds on the stopping value and reveal qualitative features of the optimal rule. In particular, we show that the complete history dependence persists in the limit, thus answering a question asked by Bruss in the context of Robbins' problem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2976

5605. A conditional 0-1 law for the symmetric sigma-field

Author(s): Patrizia Berti and Pietro Rigo

Abstract: Let (\Omega,\mathcal{B},P) be a probability space, \mathcal{A} a sub-sigma-field of \mathcal{B}, and \mu a regular conditional distribution for P given \mathcal{A}. For various, classically interesting, choices of \mathcal{A} (including tail and symmetric) the following 0-1 law is proved: There is a set A_0 in \mathcal{A} such that P(A_0)=1 and \mu(\omega)(A) is 0 or 1 for all A in \mathcal{A} and \omega in A_0. Provided \mathcal{B} is countably generated (and certain regular conditional distributions exist), the result applies whatever P is.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3028

5606. Statistics of the Number of Zero Crossings : from Random Polynomials to Diffusion Equation

Author(s): Gregory Schehr and Satya N. Majumdar

Abstract: We consider a class of real random polynomials, indexed by an integer d, of large degree n and focus on the number of real roots of such random polynomials. For n even, the probability that such polynomials have no real root decays as a power law n^{-4 \theta(d)} where \theta(d)>0 is the exponent associated to the decay of the persistence probability for the diffusion equation with random initial conditions in space dimension d. Considering the particular case d=1, this connection allows for a physical realization of real random polynomials. We further show that the probability that such polynomials have exactly k real roots (n and k having the same parity) has an unusual scaling form given by n^{-\tilde \phi(k/\log n)} where \tilde \phi(x) a universal large deviation function.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2648

5607. Elementary Proof for Asymptotics of Large Haar-Distributed Unitary Matrices

Author(s): Christian Mastrodonato and Roderich Tumulka

Abstract: We provide an elementary proof for a theorem due to Petz and R\'effy which states that for a random $n\times n$ unitary matrix with distribution given by the Haar measure on the unitary group U(n), the upper left (or any other) $k\times k$ submatrix converges in distribution, after multiplying by a normalization factor $\sqrt{n}$ and as $n\to\infty$, to a matrix of independent complex Gaussian random variables with mean 0 and variance 1.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3146

5608. Reduction and reconstruction of symmetric stochastic differential equations

Author(s): Joan-Andreu L\'azaro-Cam\'{\i} and Juan-Pablo Ortega

Abstract: We present reduction and reconstruction procedures for the solutions of symmetric stochastic differential equations, similar to those available for ordinary differential equations. The general methods introduced in the first part of the paper are then adapted to the Hamiltonian case, which is studied with special care and illustrated with several examples.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3156

5609. Small time Edgeworth-type expansions for weakly convergent nonhomogeneous Markov chains

Author(s): Valentin Konakov and Enno Mammen

Abstract: We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusion process. Second order Edgeworth type expansions for transition densities are proved. The paper differs from recent results in two respects. We allow nonhomogeneous diffusion limits and we treat transition densities with time lag converging to zero. Small time asymptotics are motivated by statistical applications and by resulting approximations for the joint density of diffusion values at an increasing grid of points.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3139

5610. Differentiable perturbations of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operators

Author(s): Luigi Manca

Abstract: We prove an extension theorem for a small perturbation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator $(L,D(L))$ in the space of all uniformly continuous and bounded functions $f:H\to \Rset$, where $H$ is a separable Hilbert space. We consider a perturbation of the form $N_0\phi=L\phi+< D\phi,F>$ where $F:H\to H$ is bounded and Fr\'echet differentiable with uniformly continuous and bounded differential. Hence, we prove that $N_0$ is $m$-dissipative and its closure in $C_b(H)$ coincides with the infinitesimal generator of a diffusion semigroup associated to a stochastic differential equation in $H$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3126

5611. Diffusion constants and martingales for senile random walks

Author(s): Wouter Kager

Abstract: We derive diffusion constants and martingales for senile random walks with the help of a time-change. We provide direct computations of the diffusion constants for the time-changed walks. Alternatively, the values of these constants can be derived from martingales associated with the time-changed walks. Using an inverse time-change, the diffusion constants for senile random walks are then obtained via these martingales. When the walks are diffusive, weak convergence to Brownian motion can be shown using a martingale central limit theorem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3305

5612. Invariant measures for a stochastic Kuramoto-Sivashinky equation

Author(s): B. Ferrario

Abstract: For the 1-dimensional Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation with random forcing term, existence and uniqueness of solutions is proved. Then, the Markovian semigroup is well defined; its properties are analyzed, in order to provide sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of invariant measures for this stochastic equation. Finally, regularity results are obtained by means of Girsanov theorem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3321

5613. A functional limit theorem for a 2D-random walk with dependent marginals

Author(s): Nadine Guillotin-Plantard (ICJ) and Arnaud Le Ny (LM-Orsay)

Abstract: We prove a non-standard functional limit theorem for a two dimensional simple random walk on some randomly oriented lattices. This random walk, already known to be transient, has different horizontal and vertical fluctuations leading to different normalizations in the functional limit theorem, with a non-Gaussian horizontal behavior. We also prove that the horizontal and vertical components are not asymptotically independent.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3342

5614. The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet point process

Author(s): Kenji Handa (Saga University)

Abstract: The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution is a probability distribution on the totality of positive decreasing sequences with sum 1 and hence considered to govern masses of a random discrete distribution. A characterization of the associated point process (i.e., the random point process obtained by regarding the masses as points in the positive real line) is given in terms of the correlation functions. Relying on this, we apply the theory of point processes to reveal mathematical structure of the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution. Also, developing the Laplace transform approach due to Pitman and Yor, we will be able to extend several results previously known for the one-parameter case, and the Markov-Krein identity for the generalized Dirichlet process is discussed from a point of view of functional analysis based on the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3496

5615. Large Scale Properties of the IIIC for 2D Percolation

Author(s): Lincoln Chayes and Pierre Nolin

Abstract: We reinvestigate the 2D problem of the inhomogeneous incipient infinite cluster where, in an independent percolation model, the density decays to p_c with an inverse power, \lambda, of the distance to the origin. Assuming the existence of critical exponents (as is known in the case of the triangular site lattice) if the power is less than 1/\nu, with \nu the correlation length exponent, we demonstrate an infinite cluster with scale dimension given by D_H=2-\beta\lambda. Further, we investigate the critical case \lambda_c=1/\nu and show that iterated logarithmic corrections will tip the balance between the possibility and impossibility of an infinite cluster.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3570

5616. Functional limit theorems of Markov processes on a half line via pathwise convergence of excursions

Author(s): Kouji Yano

Abstract: An invariance principle is obtained for a Markov process on a half line with continuous paths on the interior. Investigated are the domains of attraction of the two different types of self-similar processes introduced by Lamperti. Our approach is to establish pathwise convergence of excursions, which is based on It\^o's excursion theory and a recent result of convergence of excursion measures by Fitzsimmons and the author.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3588

5617. Pseudoprocesses governed by higher-order fractional differential equations

Author(s): Luisa Beghin

Abstract: We study here a heat-type differential equation of order n greater than two, in the case where the time-derivative is supposed to be fractional. The corresponding solution can be described as the transition function of a pseudoprocess (coinciding with the one governed by the standard, non-fractional, equation) with a time argument T which is itself random. The distribution of T is presented together with some features of the solution (such as analytic expressions for its moments).

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3598

5618. Spinal partitions and invariance under re-rooting of continuum random trees

Author(s): B\'en\'edicte Haas (CEREMADE) and Jim Pitman and Matthias Winkel

Abstract: We develop some theory of spinal decompositions of discrete and continuous fragmentation trees. Specifically, we consider a coarse and a fine spinal integer partition derived from spinal tree decompositions. We prove that for a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet family of continuous fragmentation trees, including the stable trees of Duquesne and Le Gall, the fine partition is obtained from the coarse one by shattering each of its parts independently, according to the same law. As a second application of spinal decompositions, we prove that among the continuous fragmentation trees, stable trees are the only ones whose distribution is invariant under uniform re-rooting.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3602

5619. Burkholder's submartingales from a stochastic calculus perspective

Author(s): Giovanni Peccati (LSTA) and Marc Yor (PMA)

Abstract: We provide a simple proof, as well as several generalizations, of a recent result by Davis and Suh, characterizing a class of continuous submartingales and supermartingales that can be expressed in terms of a squared Brownian motion and of some appropriate powers of its maximum. Our techniques involve elementary stochastic calculus, as well as the Doob-Meyer decomposition of continuous submartingales. These results can be used to obtain an explicit expression of the constants appearing in the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequalities. A connection with some balayage formulae is also established.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3633

5620. Optimal cross hedging for insurance derivatives

Author(s): Stefan Ankirchner and Peter Imkeller and Alexandre Popier

Abstract: We consider insurance derivatives depending on an external physical risk process, for example a temperature in a low dimensional climate model. We assume that this process is correlated with a tradable financial asset. We derive optimal strategies for exponential utility from terminal wealth, determine the indifference prices of the derivatives, and interpret them in terms of diversification pressure. Moreover we check the optimal investment strategies for standard admissibility criteria. Finally we compare the static risk connected with an insurance derivative to the reduced risk due to a dynamic investment into the correlated asset. We show that dynamic hedging reduces the risk aversion in terms of entropic risk measures by a factor related to the correlation.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3760

5621. Circular law, Extreme Singular values and Potential theory

Author(s): Guangming Pan and Wang Zhou

Abstract: Consider the empirical spectral distribution of complex random $n\times n$ matrix whose entries are independent and identically distributed random variables with mean zero and variance $1/n$. In this paper, via applying potential theory in the complex plane and analyzing extreme singular values, we prove that this distribution converges, with probability one, to the uniform distribution over the unit disk in the complex plane, i.e. the well known circular law, under the finite fourth moment assumption on matrix elements.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3773

5622. Poisson approximation for large clusters in the supercritical FK model

Author(s): Olivier Couronn\'e (MODAL'X)

Abstract: Using the Chen-Stein method, we show that the spatial distribution of large finite clusters in the supercritical FK model approximates a Poisson process when the ratio weak mixing property holds.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3781

5623. On measure solutions of backward stochastic differential equations

Author(s): Stefan Ankirchner and Peter Imkeller and Alexandre Popier

Abstract: We consider backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with nonlinear generators typically of quadratic growth in the control variable. A measure solution of such a BSDE will be understood as a probability measure under which the generator is seen as vanishing, so that the classical solution can be reconstructed by a combination of the operations of conditioning and using martingale representations. We show that classical solutions entail the existence of measure solutions. To go the other way, we prove a priori inequalities providing bounds on exponential moments of the control processes. Then we give some algorithms based on approximations of singular generators by smoother ones, or of exponentially integrable terminal variables by bounded ones, which construct measure solutions from first principles, in particular without reference to classical solutions. This way we provide an elegant and efficient method to at least recover classical existence Theorems for BSDE.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3788

5624. Extension of the generalised inductive approach to the lace expansion: Full proof

Author(s): Remco van der Hofstad and Mark Holmes and Gordon Slade

Abstract: This paper extends the inductive approach to the lace expansion of van der Hofstad and Slade in order to prove Gaussian asymptotic behaviour for models with critical dimension other than 4. The results are applied by Holmes to study sufficiently spread-out lattice trees in dimensions d>8 and may also be applicable to percolation in dimensions d>6.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3798

5625. Fast computation by block permanents of cumulative distribution functions of order statistics from several populations

Author(s): Deborah H. Glueck and Anis Karimpour-Fard and Jan Mandel and Larry Hunter and Keith E. Muller

Abstract: The joint cumulative distribution function for order statistics arising from several different populations is given in terms of the distribution function of the populations. The computational cost of the formula in the case of two populations is still exponential in the worst case, but it is a dramatic improvement compared to the general formula by Bapat and Beg. In the case when only the joint distribution function of a subset of the order statistics of fixed size is needed, the complexity is polynomial, for the case of two populations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.3851

5626. Almost sure functional central limit theorem for ballistic random walk in random environment

Author(s): Firas Rassoul-Agha and Timo Seppalainen

Abstract: We consider a multidimensional random walk in a product random environment with bounded steps, transience in some spatial direction, and high enough moments on the regeneration time. We prove an invariance principle, or functional central limit theorem, under almost every environment for the diffusively scaled centered walk. The main point behind the invariance principle is that the quenched mean of the walk behaves subdiffusively.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4116

5627. A preferential attachment model with random initial degrees

Author(s): Maria Deijfen and Henri van den Esker and Remco van der Hofstad and Gerard Hooghiemstra

Abstract: In this paper, a random graph process {G(t)}_{t\geq 1}$ is studied and its degree sequence is analyzed. Let {W_t}_{t\geq 1} be an i.i.d. sequence. The graph process is defined so that, at each integer time t, a new vertex, with W_t edges attached to it, is added to the graph. The new edges added at time t are then preferentially connected to older vertices, i.e., conditionally on G(t-1), the probability that a given edge is connected to vertex i is proportional to d_i(t-1)+\delta, where d_i(t-1) is the degree of vertex i at time t-1, independently of the other edges. The main result is that the asymptotical degree sequence for this process is a power law with exponent \tau=\min{\tau_{W}, \tau_{P}}, where \tau_{W} is the power-law exponent of the initial degrees {W_t}_{t\geq 1} and $\tau_{P} the exponent predicted by pure preferential attachment. This result extends previous work by Cooper and Frieze, which is surveyed.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4151

5628. Diameters in preferential attachment models

Author(s): Remco van der Hofstad and Gerard Hooghiemstra

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the diameter in preferential attachment (PA-) models, thus quantifying the statement that these models are small worlds. There is a substantial amount of literature proving that, in quite generality, PA-graphs possess power-law degree sequences with exponent \tau>2. The models studied here are such that edges are attached to older vertices proportional to the degree plus a constant, i.e., we consider linear PA-models. We prove that the diameter is bounded by a constant times \log{t}, where t is the size of the graph. When the power-law exponent \tau exceeds 3, then we also prove a lower bound of the form \log{t}/\log\log{t}}, while when \tau\in (2,3), we improve the upper bound to a constant times \log\log{t}. These bounds are consistent with predictions by physicists that the distances in PA-graphs are similar to the ones in other scale-free random graphs, where distances have been shown to be of order \log\log{t}, when \tau\in (2,3), and of order \log{t} when \tau>3.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4153

5629. The ODE method for some self-interacting diffusions on non-compact spaces

Author(s): A. Kurtzmann

Abstract: Self-interacting diffusions are solutions to SDEs with a drift term depending on the process and its normalized occupation measure $\mu_t$ (via an interaction potential and a confinement potential). We establish a relation between the asymptotic behavior of $\mu_t$ and the asymptotic behavior of a deterministic dynamical flow (defined on the space of the Borel probability measures). We extend previous results on $\mathbb{R}^d$ or more generally a smooth complete connected Riemannian manifold without boundary. We will also give some sufficient conditions for the convergence of $\mu_t$. Finally, we will illustrate our study with an example on $\mathbb{R}^2$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4245

5630. Dynamical Diophantine Approximation

Author(s): Ai-Hua Fan (LAMFA) and Joerg Schmeling and Serge Troubetzkoy (CPT and FRUMAM and IML)

Abstract: Let $\mu$ be a Gibbs measure of the doubling map $T$ of the circle. For a $\mu$-generic point $x$ and a given sequence $\{r_n\} \subset \R^+$, consider the intervals $(T^nx - r_n \pmod 1, T^nx + r_n \pmod 1)$. In analogy to the classical Dvoretzky covering of the circle we study the covering properties of this sequence of intervals. This study is closely related to the local entropy function of the Gibbs measure and to hitting times for moving targets. A mass transference principle is obtained for Gibbs measures which are multifractal. Such a principle was shown by Beresnevich and Velani \cite{BV} only for monofractal measures. In the symbolic language we completely describe the combinatorial structure of a typical relatively short sequence, in particular we can describe the occurrence of ''atypical'' relatively long words. Our results have a direct and deep number-theoretical interpretation via inhomogeneous diadic diophantine approximation by numbers belonging to a given (diadic) diophantine class.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4203

5631. Entiers al\'eatoires, ensembles de Sidon, densit\'e dans le groupe de Bohr et ensembles d'analyticit\'e

Author(s): Jean-Pierre Kahane (LM-Orsay) and Yitzhak Katznelson (U STANFORD)

Abstract: We study properties of a sequence $\Lambda$ obtained by a randomselection of integers $n$, where $n\in\Lambda$ with probability $\varpi_{n}$, independently of the other choices. We distinguish two cases : if $\limsup_{n\to\infty}n\varpi_{n}<\infty$, $\Lambda$ is a.s. a Sidon set, non-dense in the Bohr group ; if $\lim_{n\to\infty}n\varpi_{n}=\infty$, then $\Lambda$ is a.s. a set of analyticity and is dense in the Bohr group.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4261

5632. Learning about a Categorical Latent Variable under Prior Near-Ignorance

Author(s): Alberto Piatti and Marco Zaffalon and Fabio Trojani and Marcus Hutter

Abstract: It is well known that complete prior ignorance is not compatible with learning, at least in a coherent theory of (epistemic) uncertainty. What is less widely known, is that there is a state similar to full ignorance, that Walley calls near-ignorance, that permits learning to take place. In this paper we provide new and substantial evidence that also near-ignorance cannot be really regarded as a way out of the problem of starting statistical inference in conditions of very weak beliefs. The key to this result is focusing on a setting characterized by a variable of interest that is latent. We argue that such a setting is by far the most common case in practice, and we show, for the case of categorical latent variables (and general manifest variables) that there is a sufficient condition that, if satisfied, prevents learning to take place under prior near-ignorance. This condition is shown to be easily satisfied in the most common statistical problems.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4312

5633. Utility Maximization with a Stochastic Clock and an Unbounded Random Endowment

Author(s): Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: We introduce a linear space of finitely additive measures to treat the problem of optimal expected utility from consumption under a stochastic clock and an unbounded random endowment process. In this way we establish existence and uniqueness for a large class of utility maximization problems including the classical ones of terminal wealth or consumption, as well as the problems depending on a random time-horizon or multiple consumption instances. As an example we treat explicitly the problem of maximizing the logarithmic utility of a consumption stream, where the local time of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process acts as a stochastic clock.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4487

5634. Explicit bounds for the approximation error in Benford's law

Author(s): Lutz Duembgen and Christoph Leuenberger

Abstract: Benford's law states that for many random variables X > 0 the leading digit D = D(X) satisfies approximately the equation P(D = d) = log_{10}(1 + 1/d) for d = 1,2,...,9. This phenomenon follows from another, maybe more intuitive fact, applied to Y := log_{10}(X): For many real random variables Y, the remainder U = U(Y) := Y - floor(Y) is approximately uniformly distributed on [0,1). The present paper provides new explicit bounds for the latter approximation in terms of the total variation of the density of Y or some derivative of it. These bounds are an interesting alternative to traditional Fourier methods which yield mostly qualitative results. As a by-product we obtain explicit bounds for the approximation error in Benford's law.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4488

5635. Pattern theorems, ratio limit theorems and Gumbel maximal clusters for random fields

Author(s): Remco van der Hofstad and Wouter Kager

Abstract: We study occurrences of patterns on clusters of size n in random fields on Z^d. We prove that for a given pattern, there is a constant a>0 such that the probability that this pattern occurs at most an times on a cluster of size n is exponentially small. Moreover, for random fields obeying a certain Markov property, we show that the ratio between the numbers of occurrences of two distinct patterns on a cluster is concentrated around a constant value. This leads to an elegant and simple proof of the ratio limit theorem for these random fields, which states that the ratio of the probabilities that the cluster of the origin has sizes n+1 and n converges as n tends to infinity. Implications for the maximal cluster in a finite box are discussed.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4534

5636. Molecular Spiders in One Dimension

Author(s): Tibor Antal and P. L. Krapivsky and and Kirone Mallick

Abstract: Molecular spiders are synthetic bio-molecular systems which have "legs" made of short single-stranded segments of DNA. Spiders move on a surface covered with single-stranded DNA segments complementary to legs. Different mappings are established between various models of spiders and simple exclusion processes. For spiders with simple gait and varying number of legs we compute the diffusion coefficient; when the hopping is biased we also compute their velocity.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2594

5637. Molecular Spiders with Memory

Author(s): Tibor Antal and P. L. Krapivsky

Abstract: Synthetic bio-molecular spiders with "legs" made of single-stranded segments of DNA can move on a surface which is also covered by single-stranded segments of DNA complementary to the leg DNA. In experimental realizations, when a leg detaches from a segment of the surface for the first time it alters that segment, and legs subsequently bound to these altered segments more weakly. Inspired by these experiments we investigate spiders moving along a one-dimensional substrate, whose legs leave newly visited sites at a slower rate than revisited sites. For a random walk (one-leg spider) the slowdown does not effect the long time behavior. For a bipedal spider, however, the slowdown generates an effective bias towards unvisited sites, and the spider behaves similarly to the excited walk. Surprisingly, the slowing down of the spider at new sites increases the diffusion coefficient and accelerates the growth of the number of visited sites.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2596

5638. On the Small Ball Inequality in All Dimensions

Author(s): Dmitry Bilyk and Michael Lacey and Armen Vagharshakyan

Abstract: Let h_R denote an L ^{\infty} normalized Haar function adapted to a dyadic rectangle R contained in the unit cube in dimension d. We establish a non-trivial lower bound on the L^{\infty} norm of the `hyperbolic' sums $$ \sum _{|R|=2 ^{-n}} \alpha(R) h_R (x) $$ The lower bound is non-trivial in that we improve the average case bound by n^{\eta} for some positive \eta, a function of dimension d. As far as the authors know, this is the first result of this type in dimension 4 and higher. This question is related to Conjectures in (1) Irregularity of Distributions, (2) Approximation Theory and (3) Probability Theory. The method of proof of this paper gives new results on these conjectures in all dimensions 4 and higher. This paper builds upon prior work of Jozef Beck, from 1989, and first two authors from 2006. These results were of the same nature, but only in dimension 3.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.4619

5639. A filtered version of the bipolar theorem of Brannath and Schachermayer

Author(s): Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: We extend the Bipolar Theorem of Brannath and Schachermayer (1999) to the space of nonnegative cadlag supermartingales on a filtered probability space. We formulate the notion of fork-convexity as an analogue to convexity in this setting. As an intermediate step in the proof of our main result we establish a conditional version of the Bipolar theorem. In an application to mathematical finance we describe the structure of the set of dual processes of the utility maximization problem of Kramkov and Schachermayer (1999) and give a budget-constraint characterization of admissible consumption processes in an incomplete semimartingale market.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0049

5640. Optimal consumption from investment and random endowment in incomplete semimartingale markets

Author(s): Ioannis Karatzas and Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility from consumption in a constrained incomplete semimartingale market with a random endowment process, and establish a general existence and uniqueness result using techniques from convex duality. The notion of asymptotic elasticity of Kramkov and Schachermayer is extended to the time-dependent case. By imposing no smoothness requirements on the utility function in the temporal argument, we can treat both pure consumption and combined consumption/terminal wealth problems, in a common framework. To make the duality approach possible, we provide a detailed characterization of the enlarged dual domain which is reminiscent of the enlargement of $L^1$ to its topological bidual $(L^{\infty})^*$, a space of finitely-additive measures. As an application, we treat the case of a constrained It\^ o-process market-model.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0051

5641. The largest eigenvalue of finite rank deformation of large Wigner

Author(s): Mireille Capitaine (LSProba) and Catherine Donati-Martin (PMA) and Delphine F\'eral (LSProba)

Abstract: We investigate the asymptotic spectrum of deformed Wigner matrices. The deformation is deterministic will all but finitely many eigenvalues equal to zero. We show that, as soon as the first largest or last smallest eigenvalues of the deformation are sufficiently far from 0, the corresponding eigenvalues of the deformed Wigner matrix almost surely exit the limiting semicircle compact support as the size of the matrix becomes large. In the particular case of a diagonal pertubation of rank 1, we prove that the fluctuations of the largest eigenvalue are not universal and depend on the particular distribution of the entries of the Wigner matrix.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0136

5642. A CLT for Information-theoretic statistics of Gram random matrices with a given variance profile

Author(s): Walid Hachem (LTCI) and Philippe Loubaton (IGM-LabInfo) and Jamal Najim (LTCI)

Abstract: Consider a $N\times n$ random matrix $Y_n=(Y_{ij}^{n})$ where the entries are given by $$ Y_{ij}^{n}=\frac{\sigma_{ij}(n)}{\sqrt{n}} X_{ij}^{n} $$ the $X_{ij}^{n}$ being centered, independent and identically distributed random variables with unit variance and $(\sigma_{ij}(n); 1\le i\le N, 1\le j\le n)$ being an array of numbers we shall refer to as a variance profile. We study in this article the fluctuations of the random variable $$ \log\det(Y_n Y_n^* + \rho I_N) $$ where $Y^*$ is the Hermitian adjoint of $Y$ and $\rho > 0$ is an additional parameter. We prove that when centered and properly rescaled, this random variable satisfies a Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and has a Gaussian limit whose parameters are identified. A complete description of the scaling parameter is given; in particular it is shown that an additional term appears in this parameter in the case where the 4$^\textrm{th}$ moment of the $X_{ij}$'s differs from the 4$^{\textrm{th}}$ moment of a Gaussian random variable. Such a CLT is of interest in the field of wireless communications.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0166

5643. A non commutative sewing lemma

Author(s): Denis Feyel and Arnaud De La Pradelle (IMJ) and Gabriel Mokobodzki (IMJ)

Abstract: In a preceding paper [E.J.ofProb.34,860-892,(2006)], we proved a sewing lemma which was a key result for the study of Holder continuous functions. In this paper we give a non-commutative version of this lemma with some applications.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0202

5644. Asymptotic results on the length of coalescent trees

Author(s): Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Delmas (CERMICS) and Jean-St\'ephane Dhersin (MAP5) and Arno Siri-Jegousse (MAP5)

Abstract: We give the asymptotic distribution of the length of partial coalescent trees for Beta and related coalescents. This allows us to give the asymptotic distribution of the number of (neutral) mutations in the partial tree. This is a first step to study the asymptotic distribution of a natural estimator of DNA mutation rate for species with large families.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0204

5645. The M-estimator in a multi-phase random nonlinear model

Author(s): Gabriela Ciuperca

Abstract: We consider a multi-phase random regression model, discontinuous in each change-point, with an arbitrary error $\epsilon$. In the case that the number of jumps is known, the M-estimator for the locations of the jumps and for the coefficient parameters are studied. These estimators are consistent and the distribution for the estimators of the coefficients is Gaussian. The estimators of the change-points converge, with the rate $n^{-1}$, to the smallest minimizer of the independent compound Poisson processes.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0153

5646. Random spatial growth with paralyzing obstacles

Author(s): J. van den Berg and Y. Peres and V. Sidoravicius and M.E. Vares

Abstract: We study models of spatial growth processes where initially there are sources of growth (indicated by the colour green) and sources of a growth-stopping (paralyzing) substance (indicated by red). The green sources expand and may merge with others (there is no `inter-green' competition). The red substance remains passive as long as it is isolated. However, when a green cluster comes in touch with the red substance, it is immediately invaded by the latter, stops growing and starts to act as red substance itself. In our main model space is represented by a graph, of which initially each vertex is randomly green, red or white (vacant), and the growth of the green clusters is similar to that in first-passage percolation. The main issues we investigate are whether the model is well-defined on an infinite graph (e.g. the $d$-dimensional cubic lattice), and what can be said about the distribution of the size of a green cluster just before it is paralyzed. We show that, if the initial density of red vertices is positive, and that of white vertices is sufficiently small, the model is indeed well-defined and the above distribution has an exponential tail. In fact, we believe this to be true whenever the initial density of red is positive. This research also led to a relation between invasion percolation and critical Bernoulli percolation which seems to be of independent interest.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0219

5647. The characteristic polynomial of a random unitary matrix: a probabilistic approach

Author(s): Paul Bourgade and Chris Hughes and Ashkan Nikeghbali and Marc Yor

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a probabilistic approach to the study of the characteristic polynomial of a random unitary matrix. We recover the Mellin Fourier transform of such a random polynomial, first obtained by Keating and Snaith, using a simple recursion formula, and from there we are able to obtain the joint law of its radial and angular parts in the complex plane. In particular, we show that the real and imaginary parts of the logarithm of the characteristic polynomial of a random unitary matrix can be represented in law as the sum of independent random variables. From such representations, the celebrated limit theorem obtained by Keating and Snaith is now obtained from the classical central limit theorems of Probability Theory, as well as some new estimates for the rate of convergence and law of the iterated logarithm type results.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0333

5648. Renewal convergence rates and correlation decay for homogeneous pinning models

Author(s): Giambattista Giacomin

Abstract: A class of discrete renewal processes with super-exponentially decaying inter-arrival distributions coincides with the infinite volume limit of general homogeneous pinning models in their localized phase. Pinning models are statistical mechanics systems to which a lot of attention has been devoted both for their relevance for applications and because they are solvable models exhibiting a non-trivial phase transition. The spatial decay of correlations in these systems is directly mapped to the speed of convergence to equilibrium for the associated renewal processes. We show that close to criticality, under general assumptions, the correlation decay rate, or the renewal convergence rate, coincides with the inter-arrival decay rate. We also show that, in general, this is false away from criticality. Under a stronger assumption on the inter-arrival distribution we establish a local limit theorem, capturing thus the sharp asymptotic behavior of correlations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0341

5649. Ends in Uniform Spanning Forests

Author(s): Russell Lyons and Benjamin J. Morris and Oded Schramm

Abstract: It has hitherto been known that in a transitive unimodular graph, each tree in the wired spanning forest has only one end a.s. We dispense with the assumptions of transitivity and unimodularity, replacing them with a much broader condition on the isoperimetric profile that requires just slightly more than uniform transience.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0358

5650. Asymptotic Behavior of Total Times For Jobs That Must Start Over If a Failure Occurs

Author(s): Soeren Asmussen and Pierre Fiorini and Lester Lipsky and Tomasz Rolski and Robert Sheahan

Abstract: Many processes must complete in the presence of failures. Different systems respond to task failure in different ways. The system may resume a failed task from the failure point (or a saved checkpoint shortly before the failure point), it may give up on the task and select a replacement task from the ready queue, or it may restart the task. The behavior of systems under the first two scenarios is well documented, but the third ({\em RESTART}) has resisted detailed analysis. In this paper we derive tight asymptotic relations between the distribution of {\em task times} without failures to the {\em total time} when including failures, for any failure distribution. In particular, we show that if the task time distribution has an unbounded support then the total time distribution $H$ is always heavy-tailed. Asymptotic expressions are given for the tail of $H$ in various scenarios. The key ingredients of the analysis are the Cram\'er--Lundberg asymptotics for geometric sums and integral asymptotics, that in some cases are obtained via Tauberian theorems and in some cases by bare-hand calculations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0403

5651. Regularity of harmonic functions for anisotropic fractional Laplacian

Author(s): Pawe{\l} Sztonyk

Abstract: We prove that bounded harmonic functions of anisotropic fractional Laplacians are H\"older continuous under mild regularity assumptions on the corresponding L\'evy measure. Under some stronger assumptions the Green function, Poisson kernel and the harmonic functions are even differentiable of order up to three.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0413

5652. Financial equilibria in the semimartingale setting: complete markets and markets with withdrawal constraints

Author(s): Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: Existence of stochastic financial equilibria giving rise to semimartingale asset prices is established under a general class of assumptions. These equilibria are expressed in real terms and span complete markets or markets with withdrawal constraints.We deal with random endowment density streams which admit jumps and general time-dependent utility functions on which only regularity conditions are imposed. As an integral part of the proof of the main result, we establish a novel characterization of semimartingale functions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0462

5653. On the semimartingale property via bounded logarithmic utility

Author(s): Kasper Larsen and Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: This paper provides a new version of the condition of Di Nunno et al. (2003), Ankirchner and Imkeller (2005) and Biagini and \{O}ksendal (2005) ensuring the semimartingale property for a large class of continuous stochastic processes. Unlike our predecessors, we base our modeling framework on the concept of portfolio proportions which yields a short self-contained proof of the main theorem, as well as a counterexample, showing that analogues of our results do not hold in the discontinuous setting.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0468

5654. Stability of utility-maximization in incomplete markets

Author(s): Kasper Larsen and Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: The effectiveness of utility-maximization techniques for portfolio management relies on our ability to estimate correctly the parameters of the dynamics of the underlying financial assets. In the setting of complete or incomplete financial markets, we investigate whether small perturbations of the market coefficient processes lead to small changes in the agent's optimal behavior derived from the solution of the related utility-maximization problems. Specifically, we identify the topologies on the parameter process space and the solution space under which utility-maximization is a continuous operation, and we provide a counterexample showing that our results are best possible, in a certain sense. A novel result about the structure of the solution of the utility-maximization problem where prices are modeled by continuous semimartingales is established as an offshoot of the proof of our central theorem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0474

5655. Optimal investment with an unbounded random endowment when the wealth can become negative

Author(s): Mark Owen and Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: This paper studies the problem of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth for a financial agent with an unbounded random endowment, and with a utility function which supports both positive and negative wealth. We prove the existence of an optimal trading strategy within a class of permissible strategies -- those strategies whose wealth process is a supermartingale under all pricing measures with finite relative entropy. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the absence of utility-based arbitrage, and for the existence of a solution to the primal problem. We consider two utility based methods which can be used to price contingent claims. Firstly we investigate marginal utility-based price processes (MUBPP's). We show that such processes can be characterized as local martingales under the normalized optimal dual measure for the utility maximizing investor. Finally, we present some new results on utility indifference prices, including continuity properties and volume asymptotics for the case of a general utility function, unbounded endowment and unbounded contingent claims.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0478

5656. Maximizing the Growth Rate under Risk Constraints

Author(s): Traian A. Pirvu and Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: We investigate the ergodic problem of growth-rate maximization under a class of risk constraints in the context of incomplete, It\^{o}-process models of financial markets with random ergodic coefficients. Including {\em value-at-risk} (VaR), {\em tail-value-at-risk} (TVaR), and {\em limited expected loss} (LEL), these constraints can be both wealth-dependent(relative) and wealth-independent (absolute). The optimal policy is shown to exist in an appropriate admissibility class, and can be obtained explicitly by uniform, state-dependent scaling down of the unconstrained (Merton) optimal portfolio. This implies that the risk-constrained wealth-growth optimizer locally behaves like a CRRA-investor, with the relative risk-aversion coefficient depending on the current values of the market coefficients.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0480

5657. Stability of the utility maximization problem with random endowment in incomplete markets

Author(s): Constantinos Kardaras and Gordan Zitkovic

Abstract: We perform a stability analysis for the utility maximization problem in a general semimartingale model where both liquid and illiquid assets (random endowments) are present. Small misspecifications of preferences (as modeled via expected utility), as well as views of the world or the market model (as modeled via subjective probabilities) are considered. Simple sufficient conditions are given for the problem to be well-posed, in the sense that optimal wealths and marginal utility-based prices are continuous functionals of the inputs.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0482

5658. The Order of the Giant Component of Random Hypergraphs

Author(s): Michael Behrisch and Amin Coja-Oghlan and Mihyun Kang

Abstract: We establish central and local limit theorems for the number of vertices in the largest component of a random $d$-uniform hypergraph $\hnp$ with edge probability $p=c/\binnd$, where $(d-1)^{-1}+\eps

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0496

5659. Local Limit Theorems and Number of Connected Hypergraphs

Author(s): Michael Behrisch and Amin Coja-Oghlan and Mihyun Kang

Abstract: Let $\hnp$ signify a random $d$-uniform hypergraph with $n$ vertices in which each of the $\bink{n}d$ possible edges is present with probability $p=p(n)$ independently, and let $\hnm$ denote a uniformly distributed with $n$ vertices and $m$ edges. We derive local limit theorems for the joint distribution of the number of vertices and the number of edges in the largest component of $\hnp$ and $\hnm$ for the regime $\bink{n-1}{d-1}p,dm/n>(d-1)^{-1}+\eps$. As an application, we obtain an asymptotic formula for the probability that $\hnp$ or $\hnm$ is connected. In addition, we infer a local limit theorem for the conditional distribution of the number of edges in $\hnp$ given connectivity. While most prior work on this subject relies on techniques from enumerative combinatorics, we present a new, purely probabilistic approach.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0497

5660. Queues with heterogeneous servers and uninformed customers: who works the most?

Author(s): Fabricio Bandeira Cabral

Abstract: In this paper, we consider systems that can be modelled by $M \mid M \mid n$ queues with heterogeneous servers and non informed customers. Considering any two servers: we show that the probability that the fastest server is busy is smaller than the probability that the slowest server is busy. Moreover, we show that the effective rate of service done by the fastest server is larger than effective rate of service done by the slowest server.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0560

5661. On the geometry of generalized Gaussian distributions

Author(s): Attila Andai

Abstract: In this paper we consider the space of those probability distributions which maximize the $q$-R\'enyi entropy. These distributions have the same parameter space for every $q$, and in the $q=1$ case these are the normal distributions. Some methods to endow this parameter space with Riemannian metric is presented: the second derivative of the $q$-R\'enyi entropy, Tsallis-entropy and the relative entropy give rise to a Riemannian metric, the Fisher-information matrix is a natural Riemannian metric, and there are some geometrically motivated metrics which were studied by Siegel, Calvo and Oller, Lovri\'c, Min-Oo and Ruh. These metrics are different therefore our differential geometrical calculations based on a unified metric, which covers all the above mentioned metrics among others. We also compute the geometrical properties of this metric, the equation of the geodesic line with some special solutions, the Riemann and Ricci curvature tensors and scalar curvature. Using the correspondence between the volume of the geodesic ball and the scalar curvature we show how the parameter $q$ modulates the statistical distinguishability of close points. We show that some frequently used metric in quantum information geometry can be easily recovered from classical metrics.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0606

5662. An extension of the inductive approach to the lace expansion

Author(s): Remco van der Hofstad and Mark Holmes and Gordon Slade

Abstract: We extend the inductive approach to the lace expansion, previously developed to study models with critical dimension 4, to be applicable more generally. In particular, the result of this note has recently been used to prove Gaussian asymptotic behaviour for the Fourier transform of the two-point function for sufficiently spread-out lattice trees in dimensions d>8, and it is potentially also applicable to percolation in dimensions d>6.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0611

5663. An expansion for self-interacting random walks

Author(s): Remco van der Hofstad and Mark Holmes

Abstract: We derive a perturbation expansion for general interacting random walks, where steps are made on the basis of the history of the path. Examples of models where this expansion applies are reinforced random walk, excited random walk, the true (weakly) self-avoiding walk and loop-erased random walk. We use the expansion to prove a law of large numbers and central limit theorem for two models: (i) A directed version of once-reinforced random walk on \Z^d for sufficiently small reinforcement parameters. This model is such that if the reinforcement parameter is set to zero, then the resulting random walk has independent increments with a non-zero drift; and (ii) Excited random walk in dimension d>8 when the excitement parameter is sufficiently small.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0614

5664. A characterization of the Riesz distribution

Author(s): Abdelhamid Hassairi and Sallouha Lajmi and Raoudha Zine

Abstract: Bobecka and Wesolowski (2002) have shown that, in the Olkin and Rubin characterization of the Wishart distribution (See Casalis and Letac (1996)), when we use the division algorithm defined by the quadratic representation and replace the property of invariance by the existence of twice differentiable densities, we still have a characterization of the Wishart distribution. In the present work, we show that, when we use the division algorithm defined by the Cholesky decomposition, we get a characterization of the Riesz distribution.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0679

5665. Uniqueness of polynomial canonical representations

Author(s): Manuel Lladser

Abstract: Let P(z) and Q(y) be polynomials of the same degree k>=1 in the complex variables z and y, respectively. In this extended abstract we study the non-linear functional equation P(z)=Q(y(z)), where y(z) is restricted to be analytic in a neighborhood of z=0. We provide sufficient conditions to ensure that all the roots of Q(y) are contained within the range of y(z) as well as to have y(z)=z as the unique analytic solution of the non-linear equation. Our results are motivated from uniqueness considerations of polynomial canonical representations of the phase or amplitude terms of oscillatory integrals encountered in the asymptotic analysis of the coefficients of mixed powers and multivariable generating functions via saddle-point methods. Uniqueness shall prove important for developing algorithms to determine the Taylor coefficients of the terms appearing in these representations. The uniqueness of Levinson's polynomial canonical representations of analytic functions in several variables follows as a corollary of our one-complex variables results.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2345

5666. Multiplication of free random variables and the S-transform: the case of vanishing mean

Author(s): N. Raj Rao and Roland Speicher

Abstract: This note extends Voiculescu's S-transform based analytical machinery for free multiplicative convolution to the case where the mean of the probability measures vanishes. We show that with the right interpretation of the S-transform in the case of vanishing mean, the usual formula makes perfectly good sense.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0323

5667. Operator space Lp embedding theory I

Author(s): Marius Junge and Javier Parcet

Abstract: Given any $1 < q \le 2$, we use new free probability techniques to construct a completely isomorphic embedding of $\ell_q$ (equipped with its natural operator space structure) into the predual of a sufficiently large QWEP von Neumann algebra.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0550

5668. The zero-one law for planar random walks in i.i.d. random environments revisited

Author(s): Martin P.W. Zerner

Abstract: In this note we present a simplified proof of the zero-one law by Merkl and Zerner (2001) for directional transience of random walks in i.i.d. random environments (RWRE) on the square lattice. Also, we indicate how to construct a two-dimensional counterexample in a non-uniformly elliptic and stationary environment which has better ergodic properties than the example given by Merkl and Zerner.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0745

5669. On the lower bound of the spectral norm of symmetric random matrices with independent entries

Author(s): Sandrine Peche and Alexander Soshnikov

Abstract: We show that the spectral radius of an $N\times N$ random symmetric matrix with i.i.d. bounded centered but non-symmetrically distributed entries is bounded from below by $ 2 \*\sigma - o(N^{-6/11+\epsilon}), $ where $\sigma^2 $ is the variance of the matrix entries and $\epsilon $ is an arbitrary small positive number. Combining with our previous result from [6], this proves that for any $\epsilon >0, $ one has $$ \|A_N\| =2 \*\sigma + o(N^{-6/11+\epsilon}) $$ with probability going to 1 as $N \to \infty. $

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0748

5670. Limit laws for k-coverage of paths by a Markov-Boolean model

Author(s): Srikanth K. Iyer and D. Manjunath and D. Yogeshwaran

Abstract: Let P := {X_i}_{i >= 1} be a stationary point process in R^d. {C_i}_{i>= 1} be a sequence of i.i.d random sets in R^d. and {Y^t_i}_{t >= 0, i >= 1} be i.i.d. {0,1}-valued continuous time stationary Markov chains. We define the Markov-Boolean model C_t := {Y_t^i(Xi + Ci)}_{i>=1}. C_t represents the coverage process at time t. We first obtain limit laws for k-coverage of an area at an arbitrary instant. We then derive limit laws for the k-coverage induced on a one-dimensional path at an arbitrary instant. Finally, we obtain the limit laws for the k-coverage seen by a particle as it moves along a one-dimensional path

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0789

5671. Measure-valued stochastic recurrences and the stability of queues

Author(s): Pascal Moyal

Abstract: In this paper we present a stability criterion for finite measure-valued stochastic recursions, generalizing Loynes's Theorem to spaces of measures. This result provides conditions for the reach of a "total stationary state" for the queue with an infinity of servers and the single-server SRPT queue. Indeed, we give in both cases a condition of existence of a stationary measure-valued recursive sequence characterizing the queueing system exhaustively.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0817

5672. Almost sure convergence of randomly truncated stochastic algorithms under verifiable conditions

Author(s): J\'er\^ome Lelong (CERMICS)

Abstract: We study the almost sure convergence of randomly truncated stochastic algorithms. We present a new convergence theorem which extends the already known results by making vanish the classical condition on the noise terms. The aim of this work is to prove an almost sure convergence result of randomly truncated stochastic algorithms under easily verifiable conditions

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0841

5673. Maximal probabilities of convolution powers of discrete uniform distributions

Author(s): Lutz Mattner and Bero Roos

Abstract: We prove optimal constant over root $n$ upper bounds for the maximal probabilities of $n$th convolution powers of discrete uniform distributions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0843

5674. Two multivariate central limit theorems

Author(s): Elizabeth Meckes

Abstract: In this paper, explicit error bounds are derived in the approximation of rank $k$ projections of certain $n$-dimensional random vectors by standard $k$-dimensional Gaussian random vectors. The bounds are given in terms of $k$, $n$, and a basis of the $k$-dimensional space onto which we project. The random vectors considered are two generalizations of the case of a vector with independent, identically distributed components. In the first case, the random vector has components which are independent but need not have the same distribution. The second case deals with finite exchangeable sequences of random variables.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0844

5675. On magic factors and the construction of examples with sharp rates in Stein's method

Author(s): Adrian R\"ollin

Abstract: The application of Stein's method for distributional approximation often involves so called magic factors in the bound of the solutions to Stein equations. However, these factors sometimes contain additional terms such as a logarithmic term for Poisson point process approximation, leading to unsatisfactory estimates. Despite the fact that is has been shown for many of these magic factors that the known bounds are sharp and thus that the additional terms cannot be avoided in general, no probabilistic examples have been presented in the literature, which justify these magic factors. In this article we close this gap by constructing such examples more or less explicitly. As a side effect, a new interpretation of the solutions to Stein equations is given.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0879

5676. Janossy densities for Unitary ensembles at the spectral edge

Author(s): Brian Rider and Xin Zhou

Abstract: For a broad class of unitary ensembles of random matrices we demonstrate the universal nature of the Janossy densities of eigenvalues near the spectral edge, providing a different formulation of the probability distributions of the limiting second, third, etc. largest eigenvalues of the ensembles in question. The approach is based on a representation of the Janossy densities in terms of a system of orthogonal polynomials, plus the steepest descent method of Deift and Zhou for the asymptotic analysis of the associated Riemann-Hilbert problem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.0921

5677. Infinite-dimensional diffusions as limits of random walks on partitions

Author(s): Alexei Borodin and Grigori Olshanski

Abstract: The present paper originated from our previous study of the problem of harmonic analysis on the infinite symmetric group. This problem leads to a family {P_z} of probability measures, the z-measures, which depend on the complex parameter z. The z-measures live on the Thoma simplex, an infinite-dimensional compact space which is a kind of dual object to the infinite symmetric group. The aim of the paper is to introduce stochastic dynamics related to the z-measures. Namely, we construct a family of diffusion processes in the Toma simplex indexed by the same parameter z. Our diffusions are obtained from certain Markov chains on partitions of natural numbers n in a scaling limit as n goes to infinity. These Markov chains arise in a natural way, due to the approximation of the infinite symmetric group by the increasing chain of the finite symmetric groups. Each z-measure P_z serves as a unique invariant distribution for the corresponding diffusion process, and the process is ergodic with respect to P_z. Moreover, P_z is a symmetrizing measure, so that the process is reversible. We describe the spectrum of its generator and compute the associated (pre)Dirichlet form.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1034

5678. A one dimensional analysis of turbulence and its intermittence for the d-dimensional stochastic Burgers equation

Author(s): A. D. Neate and A. Truman

Abstract: The inviscid limit of the stochastic Burgers equation is discussed in terms of the level surfaces of the minimising Hamilton-Jacobi function, the classical mechanical caustic and the Maxwell set and their algebraic pre-images under the classical mechanical flow map. The problem is analysed in terms of a reduced (one dimensional) action function. We demonstrate that the geometry of the caustic, level surfaces and Maxwell set can change infinitely rapidly causing turbulent behaviour which is stochastic in nature. The intermittence of this turbulence is demonstrated in terms of the recurrence of two processes.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1159

5679. Intermittency on catalysts

Author(s): J. Gaertner and F. den Hollander and G. Maillard

Abstract: The present paper provides an overview of results obtained in four recent papers by the authors. These papers address the problem of intermittency for the Parabolic Anderson Model in a \emph{time-dependent random medium}, describing the evolution of a ``reactant'' in the presence of a ``catalyst''. Three examples of catalysts are considered: (1) independent simple random walks; (2) symmetric exclusion process; (3) symmetric voter model. The focus is on the annealed Lyapunov exponents, i.e., the exponential growth rates of the successive moments of the reactant. It turns out that these exponents exhibit an interesting dependence on the dimension and on the diffusion constant.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1171

5680. Stein's method and Poisson process approximation for a class of Wasserstein metrics

Author(s): Dominic Schuhmacher

Abstract: Based on Stein's method, we derive upper bounds for Poisson process approximation in the L_1-Wasserstein metric d_2^(p), which is based on a slightly adapted L_p-Wasserstein metric between point measures. For the case p=1, this construction yields the metric d_2 introduced in [Barbour, A.D. and Brown, T.C. (1992), Stochastic Process. Appl. 43(1), pp. 9--31], for which Poisson process approximation is well studied in the literature. We demonstrate the usefulness of the extension to general p by showing that d_2^(p)-bounds control differences between expectations of certain p-th order average statistics of point processes.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1172

5681. A one dimensional analysis of singularities and turbulence for the stochastic Burgers equation in d-dimensions

Author(s): A. D. Neate and A. Truman

Abstract: The inviscid limit of the stochastic Burgers equation, with body forces white noise in time, is discussed in terms of the level surfaces of the minimising Hamilton-Jacobi function, the classical mechanical caustic and the Maxwell set and their algebraic pre-images under the classical mechanical flow map. The problem is analysed in terms of a reduced (one dimensional) action function. We give an explicit expression for an algebraic surface containing the Maxwell set and caustic in the polynomial case. Those parts of the caustic and Maxwell set which are singular are characterised. We demonstrate how the geometry of the caustic, level surfaces and Maxwell set can change infinitely rapidly causing turbulent behaviour which is stochastic in nature, and we determine its intermittence in terms of the recurrent behaviour of two processes.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1173

5682. Two-sided optimal bounds for Green function of half-spaces for relativistic $\alpha$-stable process

Author(s): Tomasz Grzywny and Micha{\l}Ryznar

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to find optimal estimates for the Green function of a half-space of