Probability Abstracts 99

This document contains abstracts 5757-5996 from July-1-2007 to August-31-2007.
They have been mailed on September 14th, 2007.

5757. On Bernoulli Decompositions for Random Variables, Concentration Bounds, and Spectral Localization

Author(s): Michael Aizenman and Francois Germinet and Abel Klein and Simone Warzel

Abstract: As was noted already by A. N. Kolmogorov, any random variable has a Bernoulli component. This observation provides a tool for the extension of results which are known for Bernoulli random variables to arbitrary distributions. Two applications are provided here: i. an anti-concentration bound for a class of functions of independent random variables, where probabilistic bounds are extracted from combinatorial results, and ii. a proof, based on the Bernoulli case, of spectral localization for random Schroedinger operators with arbitrary probability distributions for the single site coupling constants. For a general random variable, the Bernoulli component may be defined so that its conditional variance is uniformly positive. The natural maximization problem is an optimal transport question which is also addressed here.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0095

5758. A multi-dimensional Markov chain and the Meixner ensemble

Author(s): Kurt Johansson

Abstract: We show that the transition probability of the Markoc chain $(G(j,1),...,G(j,n))_{j\ge 1}$, where the $G(i,j)'s$ are certain directed last-passage times, is given by a determinant of a special form. An analogous formula has recently been obtained by Warren in a Brownian motion model. Furthermore we demonstrate that this formula leads to the Meixner ensemble when we compute the distribution function for $G(m,n)$. We also obtain the Fredholm determinant representation of this distribution, where the kernel has a double contour integral representation.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0098

5759. Non-degeneracy of Wiener functionals arising from rough differential equations

Author(s): Thomas Cass and Peter Friz and Nicolas Victoir

Abstract: Malliavin Calculus is about Sobolev-type regularity of functionals on Wiener space, the main example being the Ito map obtained by solving stochastic differential equations. Rough path analysis is about strong regularity of solution to (possibly stochastic) differential equations. We combine arguments of both theories and discuss existence of a density for solutions to stochastic differential equations driven by a general class of non-degenerate Gaussian processes, including processes with sample path regularity worse than Brownian motion.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0154

5760. Convex and star-shaped sets associated with stable distributions

Author(s): Ilya Molchanov

Abstract: It is known that each symmetric stable distribution in $R^d$ is related to a norm on $R^d$ that makes $R^d$ embeddable in $L_p([0,1])$. In case of a multivariate Cauchy distribution the unit ball in this norm corresponds is the polar set to a convex set in $R^d$ called a zonoid. This work exploits recent advances in convex geometry in order to come up with new probabilistic results for multivariate stable distributions. In particular, it provides expressions for moments of the Euclidean norm of a stable vector, mixed moments and various integrals of the density function. It is shown how to use geometric inequalities in order to bound important parameters of stable laws. It is shown that each symmetric stable laws appears as the limit for the sum of sub-Gaussian laws and an estimate for the probability distance to a sub-Gaussian law is given. Operations with convex sets induce the well-known and new operations with stable vectors. Furthermore, covariation, regression and orthogonality concepts for stable laws acquire geometric interpretations. A similar collection of results is presented for one-sided stable laws.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0221

5761. LAMN property for hidden processes: the case of integrated diffusions

Author(s): Arnaud Gloter (LAMA) and Emmanuel Gobet (LJK)

Abstract: In this paper we prove the Local Asymptotic Mixed Normality (LAMN) property for the statistical model given by the observation of local means of a diffusion process $X$. Our data are given by $ \int_0^1 X_{\frac{s+i} {n}} \dd \mu (s)$ for $i=0,...,n-1$ and the unknown parameter appears in the diffusion coefficient of the process $X$ only. Although the data are nor Markovian neither Gaussian we can write down, with help of Malliavin calculus, an explicit expression for the log-likelihood of the model, and then study the asymptotic expansion. We actually find that the asymptotic information of this model is the same one as for a usual discrete sampling of $X$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0257

5762. Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Hidden Markov Models in continuous time

Author(s): Pavel Chigansky

Abstract: The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to I.Ibragimov and R.Khasminskii, consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of moments are established for MLE under certain strong ergodicity conditions of the chain.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0271

5763. A statistical theory for the measurement and estimation of Rayleigh fading channel

Author(s): Xinjia Chen and Guoxiang Gu and Kemin Zhou

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a statistical theory on measurement and estimation of Rayleigh fading channels in wireless communications and provide complete solutions to the fundamental problems: What is the optimum estimator for the statistical parameters associated with the Rayleigh fading channel, and how many measurements are sufficient to estimate these parameters with the prescribed margin of error and confidence level? Our proposed statistical theory suggests that two testing signals of different strength be used. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is obtained for estimation of the statistical parameters of the Rayleigh fading channel that is both sufficient and complete statistic. Moreover, the ML estimator is the minimum variance (MV) estimator that in fact achieves the Cramer-Rao lower bound.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0284

5764. Asymptotic Expansion of the One-Loop Approximation of the Chern-Simons Integral in an Abstract Wiener Space Setting

Author(s): Itaru Mitoma and Seiki Nishikawa

Abstract: In an abstract Wiener space setting, we constract a rigorous mathematical model of the one-loop approximation of the perturbative Chern-Simons integral, and derive its explicit asymptotic expansion for stochastic Wilson lines.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0047

5765. On the Optimal Switching Problem for One-Dimensional Diffusions

Author(s): Erhan Bayraktar and Masahiko Egami

Abstract: We characterize the optimal switching problem as coupled optimal stoping problems. We then use the optimal stopping theory to provide a solution. As opposed to the methods using quasi-variational inequalities and verification theorem we directly work with the value function.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0100

5766. Differential Equations Driven by Gaussian Signals I

Author(s): Peter Friz and Nicolas Victoir

Abstract: We consider multi-dimensional Gaussian processes and give a new condition on the covariance, simple and sharp, for the existence of stochastic area (s). Gaussian rough paths are constructed with a variety of weak and strong approximation results. Together with a new RKHS embedding, we obtain a powerful - yet conceptually simple - framework in which to analysize differential equations driven by Gaussian signals in the rough paths sense.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0313

5767. Occupation time fluctuations of Poisson and equilibrium branching systems in critical and large dimensions

Author(s): Piotr Milos

Abstract: Limit theorems are presented for the rescaled occupation time fluctuation process of a critical finite variance branching particle system in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with symmetric $\alpha$-stable motion starting off from either a standard Poisson random field or the equilibrium distribution for critical $d=2\alpha$ and large $d>2\alpha$ dimensions. The limit processes are generalised Wiener processes. The obtained convergence is in space-time, finite-dimensional distributions sense. With the addtional assumption on the branching law we obtain functional convergence.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0316

5768. Large deviations for symmetrised empirical measures

Author(s): Jos\'e Trashorras

Abstract: In this paper we prove a Large Deviation Principle for the sequence of symmetrised empirical measures $\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \delta_{(X^n_i,X^n_{\sigma_n(i)})}$ where $\sigma_n$ is a random permutation and $((X_i^n)_{1 \leq i \leq n})_{n \geq 1}$ is a triangular array of random variables with suitable properties. As an application we show how this result allows to improve the Large Deviation Principles for symmetrised initial-terminal conditions bridge processes recently established by Adams, Dorlas and K\"{o}nig.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0344

5769. Radial Dunkl Processes : Existence and uniqueness, Hitting time, Beta Processes and Random Matrices

Author(s): Nizar Demni (PMA)

Abstract: We begin with the study of some properties of the radial Dunkl process associated to a reduced root system $R$. It is shown that this diffusion is the unique strong solution for all $t \geq 0$ of a SDE with singular drift. Then, we study $T_0$, the first hitting time of the positive Weyl chamber : we prove, via stochastic calculus, a result already obtained by Chybiryakov on the finiteness of $T_0$. The second and new part deals with the law of $T_0$ for which we compute the tail distribution, as well as some insight via stochastic calculus on how root systems are connected with eigenvalues of standard matrix-valued processes. This gives rise to the so-called $\beta$- processes. The ultraspherical $\beta$-Jacobi case still involves a reduced root system while the general case is closely connected to a non reduced one. This process lives in a convex bounded domain known as principal Weyl alcove and the strong uniqueness result remains valid. The last part deals with the first hitting time of the alcove's boundary and the semi group density which enables us to answer some open questions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0367

5770. Dyson's non-intersecting Brownian motions with a few outliers

Author(s): Mark Adler and Jonathan Delepine and Pierre van Moerbeke

Abstract: Consider n non-intersecting Brownian particles on the real line (Dyson Brownian motions), all starting from the origin at time t=0, and evolving up to time t=1. Assume that, among those particles, r are forced to reach a given final target a >0 (outliers), while the (n-r) remaining ones return to the position x=0. Letting n tend to infinity, view this cloud of particles from the edge (i.e., near the largest particle), with the space and time rescaling given by the edge statistics of GUE. Also let the target point a go to infinity with n at the rate a=rho\sqrt{n/2} for rho between 0 and 1. Then a phase transition takes place at rho=1. Indeed, for rho<1, the limit cloud is described by the Airy process, which in effect is rho-independent and also independent of the number r of outlying particles; it is as if rho were =0. For rho=1, the process depends on the number r of outliers, and leads to a new process: an Airy process with r outliers (in short: r-Airy process), which is a kind of interpolation between the Airy and Pearcey processes. The log of the probability that at time tau (the new rescaled time) the cloud does not exceed x is given by the Fredholm determinant of a new kernel (extending the Airy kernel) and it satisfies a non-linear PDE in x and tau, from which the asymptotic behavior of the process can be deduced for tau tending to -infinity (remote past). This kernel is closely related to one found by Baik, Ben Arous and Peche in the context of multivariate statistics.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0442

5771. Rubinstein distance on configurations spaces

Author(s): Laurent Decreusefond and Nicolas Savy

Abstract: By a method inspired of the Stein's method, we derive an upper- bound of the Rubinstein distance between two absolutely continuous probability measures on configurations space. As an application, we show that the best way to approximate a Modulated Poisson Process (see below for the definition) by a Poisson process is to equate their intensity.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0445

5772. Stochastic domination for iterated convlutions and catalytic majorization

Author(s): Guillaume Aubrun (ICJ) and Ion Nechita (ICJ)

Abstract: We study how iterated convolutions of probability measures compare under stochastic domination. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an integer $n$ such that $\mu^{*n}$ is stochastically dominated by $\nu^{*n}$ for two given probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$. As a consequence we obtain a similar theorem on the majorization order for vectors in $ \R^d$. In particular we prove results about catalysis in quantum information theory.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0211

5773. Random Normal Matrices and Polynomial Curves

Author(s): Peter Elbau

Abstract: We show that in the large matrix limit, the eigenvalues of the normal matrix model for matrices with spectrum inside a compact domain with a special class of potentials homogeneously fill the interior of a polynomial curve uniquely defined by the area of its interior domain and its exterior harmonic moments which are all given as parameters of the potential. Then we consider the orthogonal polynomials corresponding to this matrix model and show that, under certain assumptions, the density of the zeros of the highest relevant orthogonal polynomial in the large matrix limit is (up to some constant factor) given by the discontinuity of the Schwarz function of this polynomial curve.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0425

5774. Filtering the Wright-Fisher diffusion

Author(s): Mireille Chaleyat-Maurel (MAP5 and PMA) and Valentine Genon- Catalot (MAP5)

Abstract: We consider a Wright-Fisher diffusion (x(t)) whose current state cannot be observed directly. Instead, at times t1 < t2 < . . ., the observations y(ti) are such that, given the process (x(t)), the random variables (y(ti)) are independent and the conditional distribution of y(ti) only depends on x(ti). When this conditional distribution has a specific form, we prove that the model ((x(ti), y(ti)), i 1) is a computable filter in the sense that all distributions involved in filtering, prediction and smoothing are exactly computable. These distributions are expressed as finite mixtures of parametric distributions. Thus, the number of statistics to compute at each iteration is finite, but this number may vary along iterations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0537

5775. Transformations of infinitely divisible distributions via improper stochastic integrals

Author(s): Ken-iti Sato

Abstract: Let $X^{(\mu)}(ds)$ be an $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued homogeneous independently scattered random measure over $\mathbb{R}$ having $\mu$ as the distribution of $X^{(\mu)}((t,t+1])$. Let $f(s)$ be a nonrandom measurable function on an open interval $(a,b)$ where $-\infty\leqslant a

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0538

5776. Infinite Horizon and Ergodic Optimal Quadratic Control for an Affine Equation with Stochastic Coefficients

Author(s): Giuseppina Guatteri and Federica Masiero

Abstract: We study quadratic optimal stochastic control problems with control dependent noise state equation perturbed by an affine term and with stochastic coefficients. Both infinite horizon case and ergodic case are treated. To this purpose we introduce a Backward Stochastic Riccati Equation and a dual backward stochastic equation, both considered in the whole time line. Besides some stabilizability conditions we prove existence of a solution for the two previous equations defined as limit of suitable finite horizon approximating problems. This allows to perform the synthesis of the optimal control.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0606

5777. Transient NN random walk on the line

Author(s): Endre Cs\'aki and Ant\'onia F\"oldes and P\'al R\'ev\'esz

Abstract: We prove strong theorems for the local time at infinity of a nearest neighbor transient random walk. First, laws of the iterated logarithm are given for the large values of the local time. Then we investigate the length of intervals over which the walk runs through (always from left to right) without ever returning.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0734

5778. Large Deviations Principle for Self-Intersection Local Times for simple random walk in dimension d>4

Author(s): Amine Asselah

Abstract: We obtain a large deviations principle for the self-intersection local times for a simple random walk in dimension d>4. As an application, we obtain moderate deviations for random walk in random sceneries in some region of parameters.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0813

5779. The number of open paths in an oriented $\rho$-percolation model

Author(s): Francis Comets and Serguei Popov and Marina Vachkovskaia

Abstract: We study the asymptotic properties of the number of open paths of length $n$ in an oriented $\rho$-percolation model. We show that this number is $e^{n\alpha(\rho)(1+o(1))}$ as $n \to \infty$. The exponent $\alpha$ is deterministic, it can be expressed in terms of the free energy of a polymer model, and it can be explicitely computed in some range of the parameters. Moreover, in a restricted range of the parameters, we even show that the number of such paths is $n^{-1/2} W e^{n\alpha(\rho)}(1+o(1))$ for some nondegenerate random variable $W$. We build on connections with the model of directed polymers in random environment, and we use techniques and results developed in this context.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0818

5780. A New Generalization of Chebyshev Inequality for Random Vectors

Author(s): Xinjia Chen

Abstract: In this article, we derive a new generalization of Chebyshev inequality for random vectors. We demonstrate that the new generalization is much less conservative than the classical generalization.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0805

5781. Explicit Formula for Constructing Binomial Confidence Interval with Guaranteed Coverage Probability

Author(s): Xinjia Chen and Kemin Zhou and Jorge L. Aravena

Abstract: In this paper, we derive an explicit formula for constructing the confidence interval of binomial parameter with guaranteed coverage probability. The formula overcomes the limitation of normal approximation which is asymptotic in nature and thus inevitably introduce unknown errors in applications. Moreover, the formula is very tight in comparison with classic Clopper- Pearson's approach from the perspective of interval width. Based on the rigorous formula, we also obtain approximate formulas with excellent performance of coverage probability.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0837

5782. Weighted lattice polynomials of independent random variables

Author(s): Jean-Luc Marichal

Abstract: We give the cumulative distribution functions, the expected values, and the moments of weighted lattice polynomials when regarded as real functions of independent random variables. Since weighted lattice polynomial functions include ordinary lattice polynomial functions and, particularly, order statistics, our results encompass the corresponding formulas for these particular functions. We also provide an application to the reliability analysis of coherent systems.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0953

5783. The integral of the supremum process of Brownian motion

Author(s): Svante Janson and Niclas Petersson

Abstract: In this paper we study the integral of the supremum process of standard Brownian motion. We present an explicit formula for the moments of the integral (or area) A(T), covered by the process in the time interval [0,T]. The Laplace transform of A(T) follows as a consequence. The main proof involves a double Laplace transform of A(T) and is based on excursion theory and local time for Brownian motion.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0989

5784. Tail estimates for the Brownian excursion area and other Brownian areas

Author(s): Svante Janson and Guy Louchard

Abstract: Several Brownian areas are considered in this paper: the Brownian excursion area, the Brownian bridge area, the Brownian motion area, the Brownian meander area, the Brownian double meander area, the positive part of Brownian bridge area, the positive part of Brownian motion area. We are interested in the asymptotics of the right tail of their density function. Inverting a double Laplace transform, we can derive, in a mechanical way, all terms of an asymptotic expansion. We illustrate our technique with the computation of the first four terms. We also obtain asymptotics for the right tail of the distribution function and for the moments. Our main tool is the two- dimensional saddle point method.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0991

5785. Sharpness of the phase transition and exponential decay of the subcritical cluster size for percolation on quasi-transitive graphs

Author(s): Ton\'ci Antunovi\'c and Ivan Veseli\'c

Abstract: We study homogeneous, independent percolation on general quasi- transitive graphs. We prove that in the disorder regime where all clusters are finite almost surely, in fact the expectation of the cluster size is finite. This extends a well-known theorem by Menshikov and Aizenman & Barsky to all quasi-transitive graphs. Moreover we deduce that in this disorder regime the cluster size distribution decays exponentially, extending a result of Aizenman & Newman. Our results apply to both edge and site percolation, as well as long range (edge) percolation. The proof is based on a modification of the Aizenman & Barsky method.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1089

5786. Gaussian Approximations of Multiple Integrals

Author(s): Giovanni Peccati (LSTA)

Abstract: Fix an integer k, and let I(l), l=1,2,..., be a sequence of k- dimensional vectors of multiple Wiener-It\^o integrals with respect to a general Gaussian process. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions to have that, as l diverges, the law of I(l) is asymptotically close (for example, in the sense of Prokhorov's distance) to the law of a k-dimensional Gaussian vector having the same covariance matrix as I(l). The main feature of our results is that they require minimal assumptions (basically, boundedness of variances) on the asymptotic behaviour of the variances and covariances of the elements of I(l). In particular, we will not assume that the covariance matrix of I(l) is convergent. This generalizes the results proved in Nualart and Peccati (2005), Peccati and Tudor (2005) and Nualart and Ortiz-Latorre (2007). As shown in Marinucci and Peccati (2007b), the criteria established in this paper are crucial in the study of the high-frequency behaviour of stationary fields defined on homogeneous spaces.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1220

5787. Euler Scheme and Tempered Distributuions

Author(s): Julien Guyon (CERMICS)

Abstract: Given a smooth R^d-valued diffusion, we study how fast the Euler scheme with time step 1/n converges in law. To be precise, we look for which class of test functions f the approximate expectation E[f(X^{n,x}_1)] converges with speed 1/n to E[f(X^x_1)]. If X is uniformly elliptic, we show that this class contains all tempered distributions, and all measurable functions with exponential growth. We give applications to option pricing and hedging, proving numerical convergence rates for prices, deltas and gammas.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1243

5788. Continuous first-passage percolation and continuous greedy

Author(s): Jean-Baptiste Gouere (MAPMO) and Regine Marchand (IECN)

Abstract: We study a random growth model on $\R^d$ introduced by Deijfen. This is a continuous first-passage percolation model. The growth occurs by means of spherical outbursts with random radii in the infected region. We aim at finding conditions on the distribution of the random radii to determine whether the growth of the process is linear or not. To do so, we compare this model with a continuous analogue of the greedy lattice paths model and transpose results in the lattice setting to the continuous setting.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1395

5789. Conditional large and moderate deviations for sums of discrete random variables. Combinatoric applications

Author(s): Fabrice Gamboa (IMT) and Thierry Klein (IMT) and Cl\'ementine Prieur (IMT)

Abstract: We prove large and moderate deviation principles for the distribution of an empirical mean conditioned by the value of the sum of discrete i.i.d. random variables. Some applications for combinatoric problems are discussed.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1461

5790. Non-Uniqueness of Gibbs measures relative to Brownian motion

Author(s): Volker Betz and Olaf Wittich

Abstract: We consider Gibbs measures relative to Brownian motion of Feynman- Kac type, with single site potential V. We show that for a large class of V, including the Coulomb potential, there exist infinitely many infinite volume Gibbs measures.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1462

5791. On Connected Diagrams and Cumulants of Erdos-Renyi Matrix Models

Author(s): O. Khorunzhiy

Abstract: Regarding the adjacency matrices of n-vertex graphs and related graph Laplacian, we introduce two families of discrete matrix models constructed both with the help of the Erdos-Renyi ensemble of random graphs. Corresponding matrix sums represent the characteristic functions of the average number of walks and closed walks over the random graph. These sums can be considered as discrete analogs of the matrix integrals of random matrix theory. We study the diagram structure of the cumulant expansions of logarithms of these matrix sums and analyze the limiting expressions in the cases of constant and vanishing edge probabilities as n tends to infinity.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.0997

5792. Exchangeable partitions derived from Markovian coalescents with simultaneous multiple collisions

Author(s): Rui Dong

Abstract: Kingman derived the Ewens sampling formula for random partitions from the genealogy model defined by a Poisson process of mutations along lines of descent governed by a simple coalescent process. M\"ohle described the recursion which determines the generalization of the Ewens sampling formula when the lines of descent are governed by a coalescent with multiple collisions. In a recent work by Dong, Gnedin and Pitman, authors exploit an analogy with the theory of regenerative composition and partition structures, and provide various characterizations of the associated exchangeable random partitions. This paper gives parallel results for the further generalized model with lines of descent following a coalescent with simultaneous multiple collisions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1606

5793. Asymptotic regimes for the occupancy scheme of multiplicative cascades

Author(s): Jean Bertoin (PMA and Dma)

Abstract: In the classical occupancy scheme, one considers a fixed discrete probability measure ${\bf p}=(p_i: {i\in{\cal I}})$ and throws balls independently at random in boxes labeled by ${\cal I}$, such that p_i is the probability that a given ball falls into the box i. In this work, we are interested in asymptotic regimes of this scheme in the situation induced by a refining sequence $({\bf p}(k) : k\in\N)$ of random probability measures which arise from some multiplicative cascade. Our motivation comes from the study of the asymptotic behavior of certain fragmentation chains

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1640

5794. Statistical properties of a generalized threshold network model

Author(s): Yusuke Ide and Norio Konno and and Naoki Masuda

Abstract: The threshold network model is a type of finite random graphs. In this paper, we introduce a generalized threshold network model. A pair of vertices with random weights is connected by an edge when real-valued functions of the pair of weights belong to given Borel sets. We extend several known limit theorems for the number of prescribed subgraphs to show that the strong law of large numbers can be uniform convergence. We also prove two limit theorems for the local and global clustering coefficients.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1744

5795. Random environment on coloured trees

Author(s): Mikhail Menshikov and Dimitri Petritis and Stanislav Volkov

Abstract: In this paper we study a regular rooted coloured tree with random labels assigned to its edges, where the distribution of the label assigned to an edge depends on the colours of its endpoints. We obtain some new results relevant to this model and also show how our model generalizes many other probabilistic models, including random walk in random environment on trees, recursive distributional equations, and multi-type branching random walk on $ \mathbb{R}$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1746

5796. Universal L^s -rate-optimality of L^r-optimal quantizers by dilatation and contraction

Author(s): Abass Sagna (PMA)

Abstract: Let $ r, s>0 $. For a given probability measure $P$ on $\mathbb{R} ^d$, let $(\alpha_n)_{n \geq 1}$ be a sequence of (asymptotically) $L^r(P)$- optimal quantizers. For all $\mu \in \mathbb{R}^d $ and for every $\theta >0 $, one defines the sequence $(\alpha_n^{\theta, \mu})_{n \geq 1}$ by : $ \forall n \geq 1, \alpha_n^{\theta, \mu} = \mu + \theta(\alpha_n - \mu) = \{\mu + \theta(a- \mu), a \in \alpha_n \} $. In this paper, we are interested in the asymptotics of the $L^s$-quantization error induced by the sequence $(\alpha_n^ {\theta, \mu})_{n \geq 1}$. We show that for a wide family of distributions, the sequence $(\alpha_n^{\theta, \mu})_{n \geq 1}$ is $L^s$-rate-optimal. For the Gaussian and the exponential distributions, one shows how to choose the parameter $\theta$ such that $(\alpha_n^{\theta, \mu})_{n \geq 1}$ satisfies the empirical measure theorem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1808

5797. On the girth of random Cayley graphs

Author(s): Alex Gamburd and Shlomo Hoory and Mehrdad Shahshahani and Aner Shalev, Balint Virag

Abstract: We prove that random d-regular Cayley graphs of the symmetric group asymptotically almost surely have girth at least (log_{d-1}|G|)^{1/2}/ 2 and that random d-regular Cayley graphs of simple algebraic groups over F_q asymptotically almost surely have girth at least log_{d-1}|G|/dim(G). For the symmetric p-groups the girth is between log log |G| and (log|G|) ^alpha with alpha<1. Several conjectures and open questions are presented.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1833

5798. Determinantal transition kernels for some interacting particles on the line

Author(s): A. B. Dieker and J. Warren

Abstract: We find the transition kernels for four Markovian interacting particle systems on the line, by proving that each of these kernels is intertwined with a Karlin-McGregor type kernel. The resulting kernels all inherit the determinantal structure from the Karlin-McGregor formula, and have a similar form to Schutz's kernel for the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1843

5799. On a theorem in multi-parameter potential theory

Author(s): Ming Yang

Abstract: We prove a theorem on additive Levy processes and give applications

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1845

5800. On a general theorem for additive Levy processes

Author(s): Ming Yang

Abstract: We prove a new theorem on additive Levy processes and show that this theorem implies several proved theorems and a hard conjectured theorem.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1847

5801. Hausdorrf dimension for level sets and k-multiple times

Author(s): Ming Yang

Abstract: We compute the Hausdorff dimension of the zero set of an additive Levy process.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1849

5802. A new approach to the giant component problem

Author(s): Svante Janson and Malwina Luczak

Abstract: We study the largest component of a random (multi)graph on n vertices with a given degree sequence. We let n tend to infinity. Then, under some regularity conditions on the degree sequences, we give conditions on the asymptotic shape of the degree sequence that imply that with high probability all the components are small, and other conditions that imply that with high probability there is a giant component and the sizes of its vertex and edge sets satisfy a law of large numbers; under suitable assumptions these are the only two possibilities. In particular, we recover the results by Molloy and Reed on the size of the largest component in a random graph with a given degree sequence. We further obtain a new sharp result for the giant component just above the threshold, generalizing the case of G(n,p) with np=1+omega(n)n^ {-1/3}, where omega(n) tends to infinity arbitrarily slowly. Our method is based on the properties of empirical distributions of independent random variables, and leads to simple proofs.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1786

5803. Law of iterated logarithm for NA sequences with non-identical distributions

Author(s): Guang-hui Cai and Hang Wu

Abstract: Based on a law of the iterated logarithm for independent random variables sequences, an iterated logarithm theorem for NA sequences with non- identical distributions is obtained. The proof is based on a Kolmogrov-type exponential inequality.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1968

5804. Exit problems associated with affine reflection groups

Author(s): Yan Doumerc and John Moriarty

Abstract: We give the distribution of the first exit time of Brownian motion from the alcove of an affine Weyl group, in terms of the distributions of first exit times from simpler domains such as orthants. Applications are explicitly given in the different type cases. The results extend to any process for which the reflection arguments are valid. We also give the real eigenfunctions of the Laplacian for alcoves with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2009

5805. A waiting time problem arising from the study of multi-stage carcinogenesis

Author(s): Rick Durrett and Deena Schmidt and and Jason Schweinsberg

Abstract: We consider the population genetics problem: How long does it take before some member of the population has m specified mutations? The case m=2 is relevant to onset of cancer due to the inactivation of both copies of a tumor suppressor gene. Models for larger m are needed for colon cancer and other diseases where a sequence of mutations leads to cells with uncontrolled growth.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2057

5806. Approximate zero-one laws and sharpness of the percolation transition in a class of models including 2D Ising percolation

Author(s): Jacob van den Berg (CWI and VUA)

Abstract: One of the most well-known classical results for site percolation on the square lattice is the equation p_c + p_c^* = 1. In words, this equation means that for all values different from p_c of the parameter p the following holds: Either a.s. there is an infinite open cluster or a.s. there is an infinite closed `star' cluster. This result is closely related to the percolation transition being sharp: Below p_c the size of the open cluster of a given vertex is not only (a.s.) finite, but has a distrubtion with an exponential tail. The analog of this result has been proved by Higuchi in 1993 for two-dimensional Ising percolation, with fixed inverse temparature beta

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2077

5807. Representations of homogeneous quantum L\'evy fields

Author(s): V P Belavkin and L Gregory

Abstract: We study homogeneous quantum L\'{e}vy processes and fields with independent additive increments over a noncommutative *-monoid. These are described by infinitely divisible generating state functionals, invariant with respect to an endomorphic injective action of a symmetry semigroup. A strongly covariant GNS representation for the conditionally positive logarithmic functionals of these states is constructed in the complex Minkowski space in terms of canonical quadruples and isometric representations on the underlying pre- Hilbert field space. This is of much use in constructing quantum stochastic representations of homogeneous quantum L\'{e}vy fields on It\^{o} monoids, which is a natural algebraic way of defining dimension free, covariant quantum stochastic integration over a space-time indexing set.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2142

5808. Malliavin calculus of Bismut type without probability

Author(s): Remi Leandre

Abstract: We translate in semigroup theory Bismut's way of the Malliavin calculus.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2143

5809. Stochastic integral representations of quantum martingales on multiple Fock space

Author(s): Un Cig Ji

Abstract: In this paper a quantum stochastic integral representation theorem is obtained for unbounded regular martingales with respect to multidimensional quantum noise. This simultaneously extends results of Parthasarathy and Sinha to unbounded martingales and those of the author to multidimensions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2144

5810. The spectrum of heavy-tailed random matrices

Author(s): Gerard Ben Arous and Alice Guionnet

Abstract: Let $X_N$ be an $N\ts N$ random symmetric matrix with independent equidistributed entries. If the law $P$ of the entries has a finite second moment, it was shown by Wigner \cite{wigner} that the empirical distribution of the eigenvalues of $X_N$, once renormalized by $\sqrt{N}$, converges almost surely and in expectation to the so-called semicircular distribution as $N$ goes to infinity. In this paper we study the same question when $P$ is in the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable law. We prove that if we renormalize the eigenvalues by a constant $a_N$ of order $N^{\frac{1}{\alpha}}$, the corresponding spectral distribution converges in expectation towards a law $\mu_\alpha$ which only depends on $\alpha$. We characterize $\mu_ \alpha$ and study some of its properties; it is a heavy-tailed probability measure which is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure except possibly on a compact set of capacity zero.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2159

5811. Weakly infinitely divisible measures on some locally compact Abelian groups

Author(s): Matyas Barczy and Gyula Pap

Abstract: On the torus group, on the group of p-adic integers and on the p-adic solenoid we give a construction of an arbitrary weakly infinitely divisible probability measure using real random variables. As a special case of our results, we have a new construction of the Haar measure on the p-adic solenoid.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2186

5812. Probability Bracket Notation: Probability Space, Conditional Expectation and Introductory Martingales

Author(s): Xing M. Wang

Abstract: In this paper, we continue to explore the consistence and usability of Probability Bracket Notation (PBN) proposed in our previous articles. After a brief review of PBN with dimensional analysis, we investigate probability spaces in terms of PBN by introducing probability spaces associated with random variables (R.V) or associated with stochastic processes (S.P). Next, we express several important properties of conditional expectation (CE) and some their proofs in PBN. Then, we introduce martingales based on sequence of R.V or based on filtration in PBN. In the process, we see PBN can be used to investigate some probability problems, which otherwise might need explicit usage of Measure theory. Whenever applicable, we use dimensional analysis to validate our formulas and use graphs for visualization of concepts in PBN. We hope this study shows that PBN, stimulated by and adapted from Dirac notation in Quantum Mechanics (QM), may have the potential to be a useful tool in probability modeling, at least for those who are already familiar with Dirac notation in QM.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2236

5813. Wigner theorems for random matrices with dependent entries: Ensembles associated to symmetric spaces and sample covariance matrices

Author(s): Katrin Hofmann-Credner and Michael Stolz

Abstract: It is a classical result of Wigner that for an hermitian matrix with independent entries on and above the diagonal, the mean empirical eigenvalue distribution converges weakly to the semicircle law as matrix size tends to infinity. In this paper, we prove analogs of Wigner's theorem for random matrices taken from all infinitesimal versions of classical symmetric spaces. This is a class of models which contains those studied by Wigner and Dyson, along with seven others arising in condensed matter physics. Like Wigner's, our results are universal in that they only depend on certain assumptions about the moments of the matrix entries, but not on the specifics of their distributions. What is more, we allow for a certain amount of dependence among the matrix entries, in the spirit of a recent generalization of Wigner's theorem, due to Schenker and Schulz-Baldes. As a byproduct, we obtain a universality result for sample covariance matrices with dependent entries.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2333

5814. Negative dependence and the geometry of polynomials

Author(s): Julius Borcea and Petter Br\"and\'en and Thomas M. Liggett

Abstract: We introduce the class of {\em strongly Rayleigh} probability measures by means of geometric properties of their generating polynomials that amount to the stability of the latter. This class contains e.g. product measures, uniform random spanning tree measures, and large classes of determinantal probability measures and distributions for symmetric exclusion processes. We show that strongly Rayleigh measures enjoy all virtues of negative dependence and we also prove a series of conjectures due to Liggett, Pemantle, and Wagner, respectively. Moreover, we extend Lyons' recent results on determinantal probability measures and we construct counterexamples to several conjectures of Pemantle and Wagner on negative dependence and ultra log-concave rank sequences.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2340

5815. From ballistic to diffusive behavior in periodic potentials

Author(s): Martin Hairer and Grigorios Pavliotis

Abstract: The long-time/large-scale, small-friction asymptotic for the one dimensional Langevin equation with a periodic potential is studied in this paper. It is shown that the Freidlin-Wentzell and central limit theorem (homogenization) limits commute. We prove that, in the combined small friction, long-time/large-scale limit the particle position converges weakly to a Brownian motion with a singular diffusion coefficient which we compute explicitly. We show that the same result is valid for a whole one parameter family of space/time rescalings. The proofs of our main results are based on some novel estimates on the resolvent of a hypoelliptic operator.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2352

5816. Exact Computation of Minimum Sample Size for Estimation of Binomial Parameters

Author(s): Xinjia Chen

Abstract: It is a common contention that it is an ``impossible mission'' to exactly determine the minimum sample size for the estimation of a binomial parameter with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. In this paper, we investigate such a very old but also extremely important problem and demonstrate that the difficulty for obtaining the exact solution is not insurmountable. Unlike the classical approximate sample size method based on the central limit theorem, we develop a new approach for computing the minimum sample size that does not require any approximation. Moreover, our approach overcomes the conservatism of existing rigorous sample size methods derived from Bernoulli's theorem or Chernoff bounds. Our computational machinery consists of two essential ingredients. First, we prove that the minimum of coverage probability with respect to a binomial parameter bounded in an interval is attained at a discrete set of finite many values of the binomial parameter. This allows for reducing infinite many evaluations of coverage probability to finite many evaluations. Second, a recursive bounding technique is developed to further improve the efficiency of computation.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2113

5817. Exact Computation of Minimum Sample Size for Estimating Proportion of Finite Population

Author(s): Xinjia Chen

Abstract: In this paper, we develop an exact method for the determination of the minimum sample size for the estimation of the proportion of a finite population with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. By characterizing the behavior of the coverage probability with respect to the proportion, we show that the computational complexity can be significantly reduced and bounded regardless population size.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2115

5818. Exact Computation of Minimum Sample size for Estimation of Poisson Parameters

Author(s): Xinjia Chen

Abstract: In this paper, we develop an approach for the exact determination of the minimum sample size for the estimation of a Poisson parameter with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. The exact computation is made possible by reducing infinite many evaluations of coverage probability to finite many evaluations. Such reduction is based on our discovery that the minimum of coverage probability with respect to a Poisson parameter bounded in an interval is attained at a discrete set of finite many values.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2116

5819. Nearly optimal embeddings of trees

Author(s): Benny Sudakov and Jan Vondrak

Abstract: In this paper we show how to find nearly optimal embeddings of large trees in several natural classes of graphs. The size of the tree T can be as large as a constant fraction of the size of the graph G, and the maximum degree of T can be close to the minimum degree of G. For example, we prove that any graph of minimum degree d without 4-cycles contains every tree of size \epsilon d^2 and maximum degree at most (1-2\epsilon)d - 2. As there exist d-regular graphs without 4-cycles of size O(d^2), this result is optimal up to constant factors. We prove similar nearly tight results for graphs of given girth, graphs with no complete bipartite subgraph K_{s,t}, random and certain pseudorandom graphs. These results are obtained using a simple and very natural randomized embedding algorithm, which can be viewed as a "self-avoiding tree-indexed random walk".

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2079

5820. A simple proof for the equivalence between invariance for stochastic and deterministic Systems

Author(s): Rainer Buckdahn and Marc Quincampoix and Catherine Rainer and Josef Teichmann

Abstract: We provide a short and elementary proof for the recently proved result by G. da Prato and H. Frankowska that a closed set is stochastically invariant if and only if it is deterministically invariant.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2353

5821. On the linear fractional self-attracting diffusion

Author(s): Litan Yan and Yu Sun and Yunsheng Lu

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce the linear fractional self-attracting diffusion driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index 1/2

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2627

5822. Iterated logarithm law for anticipating stochastic differential equations

Author(s): D. Marquez-Carreras and C. Rovira

Abstract: We prove a functional law of iterated logarithm for the following kind of anticipating stochastic differential equations $$\xi^u_t=X_0^u+\frac{1}{\sqrt{\log\log u}}\sum_{j=1}^k \int_0^{t} A_j^u(\xi^u_s)\circ dW_{s}^j+ \int_0^{t} A_0^u(\xi^u_s)ds,$$ where $u>e$, $W=\{(W_t^1,...,W_t^k), 0\le t\le 1\}$ is a standard $k$-dimensional Wiener process, $A_0^u,A_1^u,..., A_k^u:\mathbb{R}^d\longrightarrow \mathbb {R}^d$ are functions of class $\mathcal{C}^2$ with bounded partial derivatives up to order 2, $X_0^u$ is a random vector not necessarily adapted and the first integral is a generalized Stratonovich integral .

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2650

5823. A Finite Horizon Optimal Multiple Switching Problem

Author(s): Boualem Djehiche and Said Hamadene and Alexandre Popier

Abstract: We consider the problem of optimal multiple switching in finite horizon, when the state of the system, including the switching costs, is a general adapted stochastic process. The problem is formulated as an extended impulse control problem and completely solved using probabilistic tools such as the Snell envelop of processes and reflected backward stochastic differential equations. Finally, when the state of the system is a Markov diffusion process, we show that the vector of value functions of the optimal problem is a viscosity solution to a system of variational inequalities with inter-connected obstacles.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2663

5824. Nonlinear SDEs driven by L\'evy processes and related PDEs

Author(s): Benjamin Jourdain (CERMICS) and Sylvie M\'el\'eard (CMAP) and Wojbor Woyczynski

Abstract: In this paper we study general nonlinear stochastic differential equations, where the usual Brownian motion is replaced by a L\'evy process. We also suppose that the coefficient multiplying the increments of this process is merely Lipschitz continuous and not necessarily linear in the time- marginals of the solution as is the case in the classical McKean-Vlasov model. We first study existence, uniqueness and particle approximations for these stochastic differential equations. When the driving process is a pure jump L \'evy process with a smooth but unbounded L\'evy measure, we develop a stochastic calculus of variations to prove that the time-marginals of the solutions are absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure. In the case of a symmetric stable driving process, we deduce the existence of a function solution to a nonlinear integro-differential equation involving the fractional Laplacian.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2723

5825. The equilibrium states for semigroups of rational maps

Author(s): Hiroki Sumi and Mariusz Urbanski

Abstract: We consider the dynamics of skew product maps associated with finitely generated semigroups of rational maps on the Riemann sphere. We show that under some conditions on the dynamics and the potential function \psi, there exists a unique equilibrium state for \psi and a unique $\exp(\P(\psi)-\psi)$- conformal measure, where P(\psi) denotes the topological pressure of \psi.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2444

5826. Real analyticity of Hausdorff dimension for expanding rational semigroups

Author(s): Hiroki Sumi and Mariusz Urbanski

Abstract: We consider the dynamics of expanding semigroups generated by finitely many rational maps on the Riemann sphere. We show that for an analytic family of such semigroups, the Bowen parameter function is real-analytic and plurisubharmonic. Combining this with a result obtained by the first author, we show that if for each semigroup of such an analytic family of expanding semigroups satisfies the open set condition, then the function of the Hausdorff dimension of the Julia set is real-analytic and plurisubharmonic. Moreover, we provide an extensive collection of classes of examples of analytic families of semigroups satisfying all the above conditions and we analyze in detail the corresponding Bowen's parameters and Hausdorff dimension function.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2447

5827. Random perturbations of stochastic chains with unbounded variable length memory

Author(s): Pierre Collet and Antonio Galves and Florencia G. Leonardi

Abstract: We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the algorithm Context, provided that the noise is small enough.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2796

5828. Poincar\'e inequality for non euclidean metrics and transportation cost inequalities on $\mathbb{R}^d$

Author(s): Nathael Gozlan (LAMA)

Abstract: In this paper, we consider Poincar\'e inequalities for non euclidean metrics on $\mathbb{R}^d$. These inequalities enable us to derive precise dimension free concentration inequalities for product measures. This technique is appropriate for a large scope of concentration rate: between exponential and gaussian and beyond. We give different equivalent functional forms of these Poincar\'e type inequalities in terms of transportation-cost inequalities and infimum convolution inequalities. Workable sufficient conditions are given and a comparison is made with generalized Beckner-Latala-Oleszkiewicz inequalities.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2834

5829. Critical percolation on random regular graphs

Author(s): Asaf Nachmias and Yuval Peres

Abstract: We describe the component sizes in critical independent p-bond percolation on a random d-regular graph on n vertices, where d is fixed and n grows. We prove mean-field behavior around the critical probability p_c=1/(d-1). In particular, we show that there is a scaling window of width n^ {-1/3} around p_c in which the sizes of the largest components are roughly n^ {2/3} and we describe their limiting joint distribution. We also show that for the subcritical regime, i.e. p = (1-eps(n))p_c where eps(n)=o(1) but \eps (n)n^{1/3} tends to infinity, the sizes of the largest components are concentrated around an explicit function of n and eps(n) which is of order o(n^{2/3}). In the supercritical regime, i.e. p = (1+\eps(n))p_c where eps(n)=o(1) but eps(n)n^{1/3} tends to infinity, the size of the largest component is concentrated around the value (2d/(d-2))\eps(n)n and a duality principle holds: other component sizes are distributed as in the subcritical regime.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2839

5830. Geography of local configurations

Author(s): David Coupier

Abstract: A $d$-dimensional ferromagnetic Ising model on a lattice torus is considered. As the size $n$ of the lattice tends to infinity, the magnetic field $a=a(n)$ and the pair potential $b=b(n)$ depend on $n$. Precise bounds for the probability for local configurations to occur in a large ball are given. Under some conditions bearing on potentials $a(n)$ and $b(n)$, the distance between copies of different local configurations is estimated according to their weights. Finally, a sufficient condition ensuring that a given local configuration occurs everywhere in the lattice is suggested.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2889

5831. Some particular self-interacting diffusions: ergodic behavior and almost sure convergence

Author(s): Sebastien Chambeu and Aline Kurtzmann

Abstract: This paper is concerned with some self-interacting diffusions $ (X_t,t\geq 0)$ living on $\mathbb{R}^d$. These diffusions are solutions to stochastic differential equations: $$\mathrm{d}X_t = \mathrm{d}B_t - g(t)\nabla V (X_t - \bar{\mu}_t) \mathrm{d}t,$$ where $\bar{\mu}_t$ is the mean of the empirical measure of the process $X$, $V$ is an asymptotically strictly convex potential and $g$ is a given function. We study the ergodic behavior of $X$ and prove that it is strongly related to $g$. Actually, we will show that $X$ and $\bar{\mu}_t$ have the same asymptotic behavior and we will give necessary and sufficient conditions (on $g$ and $V$) for the almost sure convergence of $X$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2908

5832. Convergence in distribution of some particular self-interacting diffusions: the simulated annealing method

Author(s): Sebastien Chambeu and Aline Kurtzmann

Abstract: The present paper is concerned with some self-interacting diffusions $(X_t,t\geq 0)$ living on $\mathbb{R}^d$. These diffusions are solutions to stochastic differential equations: $$\mathrm{d}X_t = \mathrm{d}B_t - g (t)\nabla V(X_t - \bar{\mu}_t) \mathrm{d}t$$ where $\bar{\mu}_t$ is the empirical mean of the process $X$, $V$ is an asymptotically strictly convex potential and $g$ is a given function. The authors have still studied the ergodic behavior of $X$ and proved that it is strongly related to $g$. We go further and give necessary and sufficient conditions (for small $g$'s) in order that $X$ converges in probability to $X_\infty$ (which is related to the global minima of $V $).

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2910

5833. Minimum Coverage Probabilities of Confidence Intervals

Author(s): Xinjia Chen

Abstract: By our recently developed techniques, we have shown that the minimum coverage probability of an open binomial confidence interval with respect to the corresponding binomial parameter is achieved at a discrete set of finite many values. Moreover, we have obtained similar results for the case of Poisson confidence interval and the case of confidence interval for the proportion of finite population.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2814

5834. Probability Bracket Notation, Probability Vectors, Markov Chains and Stochastic Processes

Author(s): Xing M. Wang

Abstract: Dirac notation has been widely used for vectors in Hilbert spaces of Quantum Theories. It now has also been introduced to Information Retrieval. In this paper, we propose a new set of symbols, the Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), for representation of probability theories. The new are defined similarly (but not identically) as their counterparts in Dirac notation, which we refer as Vector Bracket Notation (VBN). By using PBN to represent fundamental definitions and theorems for discrete and continuous random variables, we show that PBN could play a similar role in probability sample space as Dirac notation in Hilbert space. We also find that there is a close relation between our probability state kets and probability vectors in Markov chains. In the end, we apply PBN to some important stochastic processes, and present the time evolution differential equations (TEDE) of time-continuous Markov chains in both Heisenberg and Schrodinger pictures. We summarize the similarities and differences between PBN and VBN in the two tables of Appendix A.

http://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0702021

5835. Induced Hilbert Space, Markov Chain, Diffusion Map and Fock Space in Thermophysics

Author(s): Xing M. Wang

Abstract: In this article, we continue to explore Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), proposed in our previous article. Using both Dirac vector bracket notation (VBN) and PBN, we define induced Hilbert space and induced sample space, and propose that there exists an equivalence relation between a Hilbert space and a probability sample space constructed from the same base observable (s). Then we investigate Markov transition matrices and their eigenvectors to make diffusion maps with two examples: a simple graph theory example, to serve as a prototype of bidirectional transition operator; a famous text document example in IR literature, to serve as a tutorial of diffusion map in text document space. We notice that, in both examples, the sample space of the Markov chain and the Hilbert space spanned by the eigenvectors of the transition matrix are not equivalent. At the end, we apply our PBN and equivalence proposal to Thermophysics by associating phase space with Hilbert space or Fock space of many-particle systems.

http://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0702121

5836. A Note on the Pfaffian Integration Theorem

Author(s): Alexei Borodin and Eugene Kanzieper

Abstract: Two alternative, fairly compact proofs are presented of the Pfaffian integration theorem that surfaced in the recent studies of spectral properties of Ginibre's Orthogonal Ensemble. The first proof is based on a concept of the Fredholm Pfaffian; the second proof is purely linear-algebraic.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2784

5837. Card Shuffling and Diophantine Approximation

Author(s): Omer Angel and Yuval Peres and David B. Wilson

Abstract: The ``overlapping-cycles shuffle'' mixes a deck of n cards by moving either the nth card or the (n-k)th card to the top of the deck, with probability half each. We determine the spectral gap for the location of a single card, which, as a function of k and n, has surprising behavior. For example, suppose k is the closest integer to alpha n for a fixed real alpha in (0,1). Then for rational alpha the spectral gap is Theta(n^{-2}), while for poorly approximable irrational numbers alpha, such as the reciprocal of the golden ratio, the spectral gap is Theta(n^{-3/2}).

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2994

5838. Finding Efficient Recursions for Risk Aggregation by Computer Algebra

Author(s): S. Gerhold and R. Warnung

Abstract: We derive recursions for the probability distribution of random sums by computer algebra. Unlike the well-known Panjer-type recursions, they are of finite order and thus allow for computation in linear time. This efficiency is bought by the assumption that the probability generating function of the claim size be algebraic. The probability generating function of the claim number is supposed to be from the rather general class of D-finite functions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3028

5839. The coding complexity of L\'evy processes

Author(s): Frank Aurzada and Steffen Dereich

Abstract: We investigate the high resolution coding problem for general real- valued L\'evy processes under L^p[0,1]-norm distortion. Tight asymptotic formulas are found under mild regularity assumptions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3040

5840. A Random Change of Variables and Applications to the Stochastic Porous Medium Equation with Multiplicative Time Noise

Author(s): S. V. Lototsky

Abstract: A change of variables is introduced to reduce certain nonlinear stochastic evolution equations with multiplicative noise to the corresponding deterministic equation. The result is then used to investigate a stochastic porous medium equation.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3155

5841. Random Walks in Random Environments

Author(s): L. V. Bogachev

Abstract: Random walks provide a simple conventional model to describe various transport processes, for example propagation of heat or diffusion of matter through a medium. However, in many practical cases the medium is highly irregular due to defects, impurities, fluctuations etc., and it is natural to model this as random environment. In the random walks context, such models are referred to as Random Walks in Random Environments (RWRE). This is a relatively new chapter in applied probability and physics of disordered systems, initiated in the 1970s. Early interest was motivated by some problems in biology, crystallography and metal physics, but later applications have spread through numerous areas. After 30 years of extensive work, RWRE remain a very active area of research, which has already led to many surprising discoveries. The goal of this article is to give a brief introduction to the beautiful area of RWRE. The principal model to be discussed is a random walk with nearest-neighbor jumps in independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random environment in one dimension, although we shall also comment on some extensions and generalizations. The focus is on rigorous results; however, heuristics is used freely to motivate the ideas and explain the approaches and proofs. In a few cases, sketches of the proofs have been included, which should help the reader to appreciate the flavor of results and methods.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3160

5842. Estimates for the diameter of a chordal SLE path

Author(s): Tom Alberts (New York University) and Michael J. Kozdron (University of Regina)

Abstract: We derive an estimate for the diameter of a chordal SLE path in the upper half plane H between two real boundary points 0 and x>0. In particular, we prove that if 0 < kappa < 8 and gamma:[0,1] to closure(H) is a chordal SLE in H from 0 to x, then P(gamma[0,1] cap C_R neq emptyset) asymp R^(1-4a) where a=2/kappa and C_R denotes the circle of radius Rx centred at 0 in the upper half plane. As an application of our result, we derive an estimate that two nearby points, one on the boundary and one in the interior, are swallowed together by a chordal SLE path, 4 < kappa <8.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3163

5843. The barnes G function and its relations with sums and products of generalized Gamma convolution variables

Author(s): Ashkan Nikeghbali and Marc Yor

Abstract: We give a probabilistic interpretation for the Barnes G-function which appears in random matrix theory and in analytic number theory in the important moments conjecture due to Keating-Snaith for the Riemann zeta function, via the analogy with the characteristic polynomial of random unitary matrices. We show that the Mellin transform of the characteristic polynomial of random unitary matrices and the Barnes G-function are intimately related with products and sums of gamma, beta and log-gamma variables. In particular, we show that the law of the modulus of the characteristic polynomial of random unitary matrices can be expressed with the help of products of gamma or beta variables, and that the reciprocal of the Barnes G-function has a L\'{e}vy-Khintchin type representation. These results lead us to introduce the so called generalized gamma convolution variables.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3187

5844. Growth-optimal portfolios under transaction costs

Author(s): Jan Palczewski and Lukasz Stettner

Abstract: This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete- time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that covers, in particular, the case of fixed plus proportional costs. We prove that there exists a self-financing trading strategy maximizing the average growth rate of the portfolio wealth. We show that this strategy has a Markovian form. Our result is obtained by large deviations estimates on empirical measures of the price process and by a generalization of the vanishing discount method to discontinuous transition operators.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3198

5845. Gibbs Rapidly Samples Colorings of G(n,d/n)

Author(s): Elchanan Mossel and Allan Sly

Abstract: Gibbs sampling also known as Glauber dynamics is a popular technique for sampling high dimensional distributions defined on graphs. Of special interest is the behavior of Gibbs sampling on the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph G(n,d/n). While the average degree in G(n,d/n) is d(1-o(1)), it contains many nodes of degree of order $\log n / \log \log n$. The existence of nodes of almost logarithmic degrees implies that for many natural distributions defined on G(n,p) such as uniform coloring or the Ising model, the mixing time of Gibbs sampling is at least $n^{1 + \Omega (1 / \log \log n)}$. High degree nodes pose a technical challenge in proving polynomial time mixing of the dynamics for many models including coloring. In this work consider sampling q-colorings and show that for every $d < \infty$ there exists $q(d) < \infty$ such that for all $q \geq q(d)$ the mixing time of Gibbs sampling on G(n,d/n) is polynomial in $n$ with high probability. Our results are the first polynomial time mixing results proven for the coloring model on G(n,d/n) for d > 1 where the number of colors does not depend on n. They extend to much more general families of graphs which are sparse in some average sense and to much more general interactions. The results also generalize to the hard-core model at low fugacity and to general models of soft constraints at high temperatures.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3241

5846. On the irrelevant disorder regime of pinning models

Author(s): G. Giacomin (1) and F. L. Toninelli (2) ((1) Universite' de Paris 7, (2) Laboratoire de Physique, ENS Lyon and CNRS)

Abstract: Recent results have lead to substantial progress in understanding the role of disorder in the (de)localization transition of polymer pinning models. Notably, there is an understanding of the crucial issue of disorder relevance and irrelevance that, albeit still partial, is now rigorous. In this work we exploit interpolation and replica coupling methods to get sharper results on the irrelevant disorder regime of pinning models. In particular, we compute in this regime the first order term in the expansion of the free energy close to criticality, which coincides with the first order of the formal expansion obtained by field theory methods. We also show that the quenched and the quenched averaged correlation length exponents coincide, while in general they are expected to be different. Interpolation and replica coupling methods in this class of models naturally lead to studying the behavior of the intersection of certain renewal sequences and one of the main tools in this work is precisely renewal theory and the study of these intersection renewals.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3340

5847. On a Gibbs characterization of normalized generalized Gamma processes

Author(s): Annalisa Cerquetti

Abstract: We show that a Gibbs characterization of normalized generalized Gamma processes, recently obtained in Lijoi, Pr\"unster and Walker (2007), can alternatively be derived by exploiting a characterization of exponentially tilted Poisson-Kingman models stated in Pitman (2003). We also provide a completion of this result investigating the existence of normalized random measures inducing exchangeable Gibbs partitions of type $\alpha \in (- \infty, 0]$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3408

5848. Serial interval contraction during epidemics

Author(s): Eben Kenah and Marc Lipsitch and James M. Robins

Abstract: The serial interval may be defined as the time between the onset of symptoms in an infectious person and the onset of symptoms in a person he or she infects. Several methods of analyzing epidemic data, such as estimates of reproductive numbers, are based on a probability distribution for the serial interval. In this paper, we specify a general SIR epidemic model and prove that the mean serial interval must contract when susceptible persons are at risk of multiple infectious contacts. In an epidemic, the mean serial interval contracts as the prevalence of infection increases. We illustrate two mechanisms through which serial interval contraction can occur: In global competition among infectious contacts, risk of multiple infectious contacts results from a high global prevalence of infection. In local competition among infectious contacts, clustering of contacts places susceptible persons at risk of multiple infectious contacts even when the global prevalence of infection is low. We illustrate these patterns with simulations. We also find that the minimum mean serial interval in a compartmental SIR model becomes arbitrarily small with sufficiently high R_{0}. We conclude that the serial interval distribution is not a stable characteristic of an infectious disease.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024

5849. Measure-valued equations for Kolmogorov operators with unbounded coefficients

Author(s): Luigi Manca

Abstract: Given a real and separable Hilbert space H we consider the measure- valued equation \begin{equation*} \int_H\phi(x)\mu_t(dx)- \int_H\phi(x)\mu(dx)= \int_0^t(\int_HK_0\phi(x)\mu_s(dx))ds, \end{equation*} where K_0 is the Kolmogorov differential operator \[ K_0\phi(x)=\frac12\textrm{Trace}\big[BB^*D^2\phi(x)\big]+< x,A^*D \phi(x)>+< D\phi(x),F(x)>, \] $x\in H$, $\phi:H\to \Rset$ is a suitable smooth function, $A:D(A)\subset H\to H $ is linear, $F:H\to H$ is a globally Lipschitz function and $B:H\to H$ is linear and continuous. In order prove existence and uniqueness of a solution for the above equation, we show that $K_0$ is a core, in a suitable way, of the infinitesimal generator associated to the solution of a certain stochastic differential equation in H. We also extend the above results to a reaction-diffusion operator with polinomial nonlinearities.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3233

5850. Limit laws for boolean convolutions

Author(s): Jiun-Chau Wang

Abstract: We study the distributional behavior for products, and for sums of boolean independent random variables in an infinitesimal triangular array. We show that the limit laws of boolean convolutions are determined by the limit laws of free convolutions, and vice versa. We further use these results to show several connections between the limiting distributional behavior of classical convolutions and that of boolean convolutions. The proof of our results is based on the analytical apparatus developed for free convolutions.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3401

5851. When almost all sets are difference dominated

Author(s): Peter Hegarty and Steven J. Miller

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the sizes of the sum and difference sets attached to a subset of {0,1,...,N}, chosen randomly according to a binomial model with parameter p(N), with N^{-1} = o(p(N)). We show that the random subset is almost surely difference dominated, as $N \to \infty $, for any choice of p(N) tending to zero, confirming a conjecture of Martin and O'Bryant. We exhibit a threshold phenomenon regarding the ratio of the size of the difference- to the sumset. If p(N) = o(N^{-1/2}) then almost all sums and differences in the random subset are almost surely distinct, and the difference set is almost surely about twice as large as the sumset. If N^{-1/2} = o(p(N)) then both the sum and difference sets almost surely have size $(2N+1) - (p(N)^{-2})$, and so the ratio in question is almost surely very close to one. If $p(N) = c \cdot N^{-1/2}$ then as c increases from zero to infinity (i.e.: as the threshold is crossed), the same ratio almost surely decreases continuously from two to one according to an explicitly given function of c. We extend our results to the comparison of the generalized difference sets attached to an arbitrary pair of binary linear forms. For certain pairs of forms we show that there is a sharp threshold such that one form almost surely dominates below the threshold, and the other almost surely above it. The heart of our approach involves proving strong concentration of the sizes of the sum and difference sets about their mean values.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3417

5852. Convergence in law for certain weighted quadratic variations of fractional Brownian motion

Author(s): Ivan Nourdin (PMA) and David Nualart

Abstract: By means of Malliavin calculus, we prove the convergence in law for certain weighted quadratic variations of a fractional Brownian motion B with Hurst index H between 1/4 and 1/2.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3448

5853. Limit theorems for conditioned multitype Dawson-Watanabe processes

Author(s): Nicolas Champagnat (INRIA Sophia Antipolis / INRIA Lorraine / IECN), Sylvie Roelly

Abstract: A multitype Dawson-Watanabe process is conditioned, in subcritical and critical cases, on non-extinction in the remote future. On every finite time interval, its distribution is absolutely continuous with respect to the law of the unconditioned process. A martingale problem characterization is also given. The explicit form of the Laplace functional of the conditioned process is used to obtain several results on the long time behaviour of the mass of the conditioned and unconditioned processes. The general case is considered first, where the mutation matrix which modelizes the interaction between the types, is irreducible. Several two-type models with decomposable mutation matrices are also analysed.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3504

5854. Upper bound of loss probability in an OFDMA system with randomly located users

Author(s): Laurent Decreusefond (LTCI) and Eduardo Ferraz (LTCI) and Philippe Martins (LTCI)

Abstract: For OFDMA systems, we find a rough but easily computed upper bound for the probability of loosing communications by insufficient number of sub- channels on downlink. We consider as random the positions of receiving users in the system as well as the number of sub-channels dedicated to each one. We use recent results of the theory of point processes which reduce our calculations to the first and second moments of the total required number of sub-carriers.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3509

5855. Exchangeable Random Networks

Author(s): F. Bassetti and M. Cosentino Lagomarsino and S. Mandr\'a

Abstract: We introduce and study a class of exchangeable random graph ensembles. They can be used as statistical null models for empirical networks, and as a tool for theoretical investigations. We provide general theorems that carachterize the degree distribution of the ensemble graphs, together with some features that are important for applications, such as subgraph distributions and kernel of the adjacency matrix. These results are used to compare to other models of simple and complex networks. A particular case of directed networks with power-law out--degree is studied in more detail, as an example of the flexibility of the model in applications.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3545

5856. Singular measures of circle homeomorphisms with two break points

Author(s): Akhtam Dzhalilov and Isabelle Liousse and Dieter Mayer

Abstract: Let $T_{f}$ be a circle homeomorphism with two break points $a_ {b},c_{b}$ and irrational rotation number $\varrho_{f}$. Suppose that the derivative $Df$ of its lift $f$ is absolutely continuous on every connected interval of the set $S^{1}\backslash\{a_{b},c_{b}\}$, that $DlogDf \in L^{1}$ and the product of the jump ratios of $ Df $ at the break points is nontrivial, i.e. $\frac{Df_{-}(a_{b})}{Df_{+}(a_{b})}\frac{Df_{-}(c_{b})}{Df_{+}(c_ {b})}\neq1$. We prove that the unique $T_{f}$- invariant probability measure $\mu_ {f}$ is then singular with respect to Lebesgue measure $l$ on $S^{1}$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3528

5857. On the Hausdorff dimension of invariant measures of weakly contracting on average measurable IFS

Author(s): Joanna Jaroszewska and Michal Rams

Abstract: We consider measures which are invariant under a measurable iterated function system with positive, place-dependent probabilities in a separable metric space. We provide an upper bound of the Hausdorff dimension of such a measure if it is ergodic. We also prove that it is ergodic iff the related skew product is.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3532

5858. Scaling limits for random fields with long-range dependence

Author(s): Ingemar Kaj and Lasse Leskel\"a and Ilkka Norros and Volker Schmidt

Abstract: This paper studies the limits of a spatial random field generated by uniformly scattered random sets, as the density $\lambda$ of the sets grows to infinity and the mean volume $\rho$ of the sets tends to zero. Assuming that the volume distribution has a regularly varying tail with infinite variance, we show that the centered and renormalized random field can have three different limits, depending on the relative speed at which $\lambda$ and $\rho$ are scaled. If $\lambda$ grows much faster than $\rho$ shrinks, the limit is Gaussian with long-range dependence, while in the opposite case, the limit is independently scattered with infinite second moments. In a special intermediate scaling regime, there exists a nontrivial limiting random field that is not stable.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3729

5859. Malliavin calculus and Clark-Ocone formula for functionals of a square-integrable L\'evy process

Author(s): Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Renaud and Bruno R\'emillard

Abstract: In this paper, we construct a Malliavin derivative for functionals of square-integrable L\'evy processes and derive a Clark-Ocone formula. The Malliavin derivative is defined via chaos expansions involving stochastic integrals with respect to Brownian motion and Poisson random measure. As an illustration, we compute the explicit martingale representation for the maximum of a L\'evy process.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3734

5860. Ergodic properties of Poissonian ID processes

Author(s): Emmanuel Roy

Abstract: We show that a stationary IDp process (i.e., an infinitely divisible stationary process without Gaussian part) can be written as the independent sum of four stationary IDp processes, each of them belonging to a different class characterized by its L\'{e}vy measure. The ergodic properties of each class are, respectively, nonergodicity, weak mixing, mixing of all order and Bernoullicity. To obtain these results, we use the representation of an IDp process as an integral with respect to a Poisson measure, which, more generally, has led us to study basic ergodic properties of these objects.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3746

5861. Exponential inequalities for self-normalized martingales with applications

Author(s): Bernard Bercu (IMB) and Abderrahmen Touati (IMB)

Abstract: We propose several exponential inequalities for self-normalized martingales similar to those established by De la Pena. The keystone is the introduction of a new notion of random variable heavy on left or right. Applications associated with linear regressions, autoregressive and branching processes are also provided.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3715

5862. Occupation Statistics of Critical Branching Random Walks

Author(s): Steven Lalley and Xinghua Zheng

Abstract: We consider a critical nearest neighbor branching random walk on the $d-$dimensional integer lattice. Denote by $V_m$ the maximal number of particles at a single site at time $m$, and by $G_{m}$ the event that the branching random walk survives to generation $m$. We show that if the offspring distribution has finite $n$-th moment, then in dimensions $d\geq 3$, conditional on $G_{m}$, $V_m=O_p(m^{\frac{1}{n}})$; and if the offspring distribution has exponentially decaying tail, then, conditional on $G_ {m}$, (a) $V_m=O_p(\log m)$ in dimensions $d\geq 3$, and (b) $V_m=O_p((\log m) ^2)$ in dimension $d=2$. On the other hand, we show that if the offspring distribution is non-degenerate then $P(V_m\geq \delta \log m | G_{m})\to 1$ for some $\delta > 0$. Therefore, in dimensions $d\geq 3$, if the offspring > distribution has exponentially decaying tail then conditional on $G_{m}$, the distribution of ${V_m}/{\log m}$ must converge to a nontrivial limit as $m \to \infty$. Furthermore, we show that, conditional on $G_{m}$, in dimensions $d \geq 3$, the number of multiplicity-$j$ sites, $j\geq 1$, and the number of occupied sites, normalized by $m$, converge jointly to multiples of an exponential random variable; in dimension $d=2$, however, the number of particles on a `typical' site is $O_p(\log m)$, and the number of occupied sites is $O_p(m/ \log m).$

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3829

5863. Effective resistance on random electrical networks

Author(s): Michel Benaim and Itai Benjamini and Raphael Rossignol

Abstract: Take a big graph and make a random electrical network of it by assigning independent resistances on its edges. Now, ask for the behaviour of the effective resistance between two vertices (two ``poles'') far apart. We assume in general that resistances are bounded away from 0 and infinity. In this paper, we study three cases of effective resistance in such random electrical networks: from one side to another in a box of $Z^d$, between two points in $Z^2$, and between two points on a cylinder graph $GxZ$. For all these cases, we obtain the right order of the fluctuations when the poles move apart from each other, and give corresponding subgaussian concentration inequalities. For the cylinder graphs, we prove two additional results: a central limit theorem and a result of uniform stability with respect to noise.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3837

5864. Stochastic evolution equations for nonlinear filtering of random fields in the presence of fractional Brownian sheet observation noise

Author(s): Anna Amirdjanova and Matthew Linn

Abstract: The problem of nonlinear filtering of a random field observed in the presence of a noise, modeled by a persistent fractional Brownian sheet of Hurst index $(H_1,H_2)$ with $0.5

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3856

5865. Cha\^{i}nes de Markov Constructives Index\'{e}es par Z

Author(s): Jean Brossard and Christophe Leuridan

Abstract: Nous \'{e}tudions les cha\^{{\i}}nes de Markov $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbf {Z}}$ gouvern\'{e}es par une relation de r\'{e}currence de la forme $X_{n+1}=f(X_n,V_{n+1})$, o\`{u} $(V_n)_{n\in\mathbf{Z}}$ est une suite de variables al\'{e}atoires ind\'{e}pendantes et de m\^{e}me loi telle pour tout $n\in \mathbf{Z}$, $V_{n+1}$ est ind\'{e}pendante de la suite $((X_k,V_k))_{k\le n}$. L'objet de l'article est de donner une condition n\'{e}cessaire et suffisante pour que les innovations $(V_n)_{n\in \mathbf{Z}}$ d\'{e}terminent compl\`{e}tement la suite $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbf{Z}}$ et de d\'{e}crire l'information manquante dans le cas contraire.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3860

5866. The Jancovici - Lebowitz - Magnificat law for large fluctuations of random complex zeroes

Author(s): F. Nazarov and M. Sodin and A. Volberg

Abstract: By random complex zeroes we mean the zero set of a random entire function whose Taylor coefficients are independent complex-valued Gaussian variables, and the variance of the k-th coefficient is 1/k!. This zero set is distribution invariant with respect to isometries of the complex plane. We study large fluctuations of random complex zeroes and show that they obey the asymptotic law that was discovered some time ago by Jancovici, Lebowitz and Magnificat for charge fluctuations of a Coulomb system of particles.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3863

5867. Filtration shrinkage by level-crossings of a diffusion

Author(s): A. Deniz Sezer

Abstract: We develop the mathematics of a filtration shrinkage model that has recently been considered in the credit risk modeling literature. Given a finite collection of points $x_1<...

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3866

5868. The growth of additive processes

Author(s): Ming Yang

Abstract: Let $X_t$ be any additive process in $\mathbb{R}^d.$ There are finite indices $\delta_i, \beta_i, i=1,2$ and a function $u$, all of which are defined in terms of the characteristics of $X_t$, such that \liminf_{t\to0}u(t)^{-1/\eta}X_t^*= \cases{0, \quad if $\eta> \delta_1$, \cr\infty, \quad if $\eta<\delta_2$,} \limsup_{t\to0}u(t)^{-1/\eta}X_t^*= \cases{0, \quad if $\eta> \beta_2$, \cr\infty, \quad if $\eta<\beta_1$,}\qquad {a.s.}, where $X_t^*=\sup_{0\le s\le t}|X_s|.$ When $X_t$ is a L\'{e}vy process with $X_0=0$, $\delta_1=\delta_2$, $\beta_1=\beta_2$ and $u(t)=t.$ This is a special case obtained by Pruitt. When $X_t$ is not a L\'{e}vy process, its characteristics are complicated functions of $t$. However, there are interesting conditions under which $u$ becomes sharp to achieve $\delta_1=\delta_2$, $\beta_1=\beta_2.$

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3886

5869. Maximal Arithmetic Progressions in Random Subsets

Author(s): Itai Benjamini and Ariel Yadin and Ofer Zeitouni

Abstract: Let U(N) denote the maximal length of arithmetic progressions in a random uniform subset of {0,1}^N. By an application of the Chen-Stein method, we show that U(N)- 2 log(N)/log(2) converges in law to an extreme type (asymmetric) distribution. The same result holds for the maximal length W(N) of arithmetic progressions (mod N). When considered in the natural way on a common probability space, we observe that U(N)/log(N) converges almost surely to 2/log(2), while W(N)/log(N) does not converge almost surely (and in particular, limsup W(N)/log(N) is at least 3/log(2)).

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3888

5870. Multivariate normal approximation in geometric probability

Author(s): Mathew D. Penrose and Andrew R. Wade

Abstract: Consider a measure $\mu_\lambda = \sum_x \xi_x \delta_x$ where the sum is over points $x$ of a Poisson point process of intensity $\lambda$ on a bounded region in $d$-space, and $\xi_x$ is a functional determined by the Poisson points near to $x$, i.e. satisfying an exponential stabilization condition, along with a moments condition (examples include statistics for proximity graphs, germ-grain models and random sequential deposition models). A known general result says the $\mu_\lambda$-measures (suitably scaled and centred) of disjoint sets in $R^d$ are asymptotically independent normals as $ \lambda \to \infty$; here we give an $O(\lambda^{-1/(2d + \epsilon)})$ bound on the rate of convergence. We illustrate our result with an explicit multivariate central limit theorem for the nearest-neighbour graph on Poisson points on a finite collection of disjoint intervals.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3898

5871. Non normal CLTs for functions of the increments of Gaussian processes with convex increment's variance

Author(s): Michael Marcus and Jay Rosen

Abstract: Let G be a mean zero Gaussian processes with stationary increments and set \si ^2(|x-y|)= E(G(x)-G(y))^2. Let f be a function with Ef^{2}(\eta)< \ff, where \eta=N(0,1). When \si^2 is convex and regularly varying at zero and \lim_{h\to 0} \si(h)/h=\ff \quad {but} \quad ({d\over ds^2}\si^2(s))^{j_0} \mbox{is locally integrable} for some integer j_0\ge 1, and satisfies some additional regularity conditions, then \int_a^bf(\frac{G(x+h)-G(x)}{\si (h)}) dx = \sum_{j=0}^{j_0} (h/\si(h))^{j} {E(H_{j}(\eta) f(\eta))\over\sqrt {j!}} :(G')^{j}:(I_{[a,b]}) +o({h\over\si (h)})^{j_0}\nn in L^2. Here H_j is the j-th Hermite polynomial in the Hermite polynomial expansion of f. Also :(G')^{j}:(I_{[a,b]}) is a j-th order Wick power Gaussian chaos constructed from the Gaussian field G'(g)=\int g(x) dG(x) with covariance E(G'(g)G'(\wt g)) = \int \int \rho (x-y)g(x)\wt g(y) dx dy where \rho(s)={1/2}{d^{2}\over ds^2}\si^2(s). Moreover, under the same conditions \lim_{h\downarrow0}\int_a^b :(\frac{G(x+h)-G(x)}{h})^{j_0}: dx = :(G')^{j_0}:(I_{[a,b]}) \qquad {a.s.}

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3928

5872. Mixed States Markov Random Fields with Symbolic Labels and Multidimensional Real Values

Author(s): Bruno Cernuschi-Frias (IRISA)

Abstract: New theoretical results are presented here on the recently introduced model called mixed states MRF. Such models were introduced in the context of image motion analysis and are useful to represent information which can take both discrete values accounting for symbolic states, and real values corresponding to continuous measurements. In particular, results are given when the global energy for the Gibbs formulation expressing the mixed states model, can be decomposed into one term accounting for the discrete part of the model, and a second term related to the continuous part. This decomposition theorem permits to define conditional mixed states models in a very simple way.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3986

5873. Regularly varying multivariate time series

Author(s): Bojan Basrak and Johan Segers

Abstract: A multivariate, stationary time series is said to be jointly regularly varying if all its finite-dimensional distributions are multivariate regularly varying. This property is shown to be equivalent to weak convergence of the conditional distribution of the rescaled series given that, at a fixed time instant, its distance to the origin exceeds a threshold tending to infinity. The limit object, called the tail process, admits a decomposition in independent radial and angular components. Under an appropriate mixing condition, this tail process allows for a concise and explicit description of the limit of a sequence of point processes recording both the times and the positions of the time series when it is far away from the origin. The theory is applied to multivariate moving averages of finite order with random coefficient matrices.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3989

5874. Correlation Inequalities for Generalized Potts Model: General Griffiths' Inequalities

Author(s): Nasir Ganikhodjaev and Fatimah Abdul Razak

Abstract: In this paper, correlation inequalities which have been considered on Ising model are extended to q-Potts model. It is considered on generalized Potts model with interaction of any number of spins. We replace the set of spin values $F=\{1,2,..., q\}$ by the centered set $F=\{-(q-1)/2,-(q-3)/2,... ,(q-3)/2,(q-1)/2\}$. Let $N$ be the subset of one-dimensional lattice with $n$ vertices, $\g=(\s_1,\s_2,...,\s_n):N \to F^c$ be a configuration where ${(\s_i)}_\g$ is the number which appears as the ith spin (component) in $\g$ and $\s_i$ be a random variable whose value at $\g$ is ${(\s_i)}_\g$. Define $\s^R=\prod_{i \in R}\s_i$ for any list $R$ where any $i \in R$ implies that $i \in N$. We first prove that $<\s^R > \ge 0$ then we prove that for any two lists $R$ and $S$, we have $<\s^R \s^S >- < \s^R > < \s^S > \ge 0$.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3848

5875. The passage time distribution for a birth-and-death chain: Strong stationary duality gives a first stochastic proof

Author(s): James Allen Fill

Abstract: A well-known theorem usually attributed to Keilson states that, for an irreducible continuous-time birth-and-death chain on the nonnegative integers and any d, the passage time from state 0 to state d is distributed as a sum of d independent exponential random variables. Until now, no probabilistic proof of the theorem has been known. In this paper we use the theory of strong stationary duality to give a stochastic proof of a similar result for discrete-time birth-and-death chains and geometric random variables, and the continuous-time result (which can also be given a direct stochastic proof) then follows immediately. In both cases we link the parameters of the distributions to eigenvalue information about the chain. Intimately related to the passage-time theorem is a theorem of Fill that any fastest strong stationary time T for an ergodic birth-and-death chain on {0, > ..., d} in continuous time with generator G, started in state 0, is distributed as a sum of d independent exponential random variables whose rate parameters are the nonzero eigenvalues of the negative of G. Our approach yields the first (sample-path) construction of such a T for which individual such exponentials summing to T can be explicitly identified.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4042

5876. Characterizations of probability distributions via bivariate regression of record values

Author(s): George P. Yanev and M. Ahsanullah and and M.I. Beg

Abstract: Bairamov et al. (Aust N Z J Stat 47:543-547, 2005) characterize the exponential distribution in terms of the regression of a function of a record value with its adjacent record values as covariates. We extend these results to the case of non-adjacent covariates. We also consider a more general setting involving monotone transformations. As special cases, we present characterizations involving weighted arithmetic, geometric, and harmonic means.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4121

5877. Large time asymptotics of growth models on space-like paths I: PushASEP

Author(s): Alexei Borodin (1) and Patrik L. Ferrari (2) ((1) Caltech and (2) WIAS Berlin)

Abstract: We consider a new interacting particle system on the one- dimensional lattice that interpolates between TASEP and Toom's model: A particle cannot jump to the right if the neighboring site is occupied, and when jumping to the left it simply pushes all the neighbors that block its way. We prove that for flat and step initial conditions, the large time fluctuations of the height function of the associated growth model along any space-like path are described by the Airy_1 and Airy_2 processes. This includes fluctuations of the height profile for a fixed time and fluctuations of a tagged particle's trajectory as special cases.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.2813

5878. Multiclass Hammersley-Aldous-Diaconis process and multiclass- customer queues

Author(s): Pablo A. Ferrari and James B. Martin

Abstract: In the Hammersley-Aldous-Diaconis process infinitely many particles sit in R and at most one particle is allowed at each position. A particle at x $ whose nearest neighbor to the right is at y, jumps at rate y-x to a position uniformly distributed in the interval (x,y). The basic coupling between trajectories with different initial configuration induces a process with different classes of particles. We show that the invariant measures for the two-class process can be obtained as follows. First, a stationary M/M/ 1 queue is constructed as a function of two homogeneous Poisson processes, the arrivals with rate \lambda and the (attempted) services with rate \rho> \lambda. Then put the first class particles at the instants of departures (effective services) and second class particles at the instants of unused services. The procedure is generalized for the n-class case by using n-1 queues in tandem with n-1 priority-types of customers. A multi-line process is introduced; it consists of a coupling (different from Liggett's basic coupling), having as invariant measure the product of Poisson processes. The definition of the multi- line process involves the dual points of the space-time Poisson process used in the graphical construction of the system. The coupled process is a transformation of the multi-line process and its invariant measure the transformation described above of the product measure.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4202

5879. Ergodic BSDEs and Optimal Ergodic Control in Banach Spaces

Author(s): Marco Fuhrman (Dipartimento Di Matematica) and Ying Hu (IRMAR) and Gianmario Tessitore (Dipartimento Di Matematica E Applicazioni)

Abstract: In this paper we introduce a new kind of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations, called ergodic BSDEs, which arise naturally in the study of optimal ergodic control. We study the existence, uniqueness and regularity of solution to ergodic BSDEs. Then we apply these results to the optimal ergodic control of a Banach valued stochastic state equation. We also establish the link between the ergodic BSDEs and the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Applications are given to ergodic control of stochastic partial differential equations.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4214

5880. A convexity property of expectations under exponential weights

Author(s): Marton Balazs and Timo Seppalainen

Abstract: Take a random variable X with some finite exponential moments. Define an exponentially weighted expectation by E^t(f) = E(e^{tX}f)/E(e^{tX}) for admissible values of the parameter t. Denote the weighted expectation of X itself by r(t) = E^t(X), with inverse function t(r). We prove that for a convex function f the expectation E^{t(r)}(f) is a convex function of the parameter r. Along the way we develop correlation inequalities for convex functions. Motivation for this result comes from equilibrium investigations of some stochastic interacting systems with stationary product distributions. In particular, convexity of the hydrodynamic flux function follows in some cases.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4273

5881. Neumann Heat kernel monotonicity

Author(s): R. Ba\~nuelos and T. Kulczycki and B. Siudeja

Abstract: We prove that the diagonal of the transition probabilities for the d-dimensional Bessel processes on (0, 1], reflected at 1, which we denote by $p_R^N(t, r,r)$, is an increasing function of r for d>2 and that this is false for d=2.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4299

5882. Moderate deviations and laws of the iterated logarithm for the local times of additive L\'{e}vy processes and additive random walks

Author(s): Xia Chen

Abstract: We study the upper tail behaviors of the local times of the additive L\'{e}vy processes and additive random walks. The limit forms we establish are the moderate deviations and the laws of the iterated logarithm for the L_2-norms of the local times and for the local times at a fixed site.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4355

5883. Exact Hausdorff measure on the boundary of a Galton--Watson tree

Author(s): Toshiro Watanabe

Abstract: A necessary and sufficient condition for the almost sure existence of an absolutely continuous (with respect to the branching measure) exact Hausdorff measure on the boundary of a Galton--Watson tree is obtained. In the case where the absolutely continuous exact Hausdorff measure does not exist almost surely, a criterion which classifies gauge functions $\phi$ according to whether $\phi$-Hausdorff measure of the boundary minus a certain exceptional set is zero or infinity is given. Important examples are discussed in four additional theorems. In particular, Hawkes's conjecture in 1981 is solved. Problems of determining the exact local dimension of the branching measure at a typical point of the boundary are also solved.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.4358

5884. Backward stochastic differential equations with random stopping time and singular final condition

Author(s): A. Popier

Abstract: In this paper we are concerned with one-dimensional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE in short) of the following type: \[Y_t=\xi -\int_{t\wedge \tau}^{\tau}Y_r|Y_r|^q dr-\int_{t\wedge \tau}^{\tau}Z_r dB_r,\qquad t\geq 0,\] where $\tau$ is a stopping time, $q$ is a positive constant and $\xi$ is a $\mathcal{F}_{\tau}$-measurable random variable such that $\mathbf{P}(\xi =+\infty)>0$. We study the link between these BSDE and the Dirichlet problem on a domain $D\subset \mathbb{R}^d$ and with boundary condition $g$, with $g=+\infty$ on a set of positive Lebesgue measure. We also extend our results for more general BSDE.