[Pas] Probability Abstracts 88

pas at www.economia.unimi.it pas at www.economia.unimi.it
Thu Sep 1 17:51:54 CEST 2005


                         September 1, 2005

                             Letter 88

         Probability Abstract Service

  ( http://www.economia.unimi.it/PAS )
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3516. OPTIMAL LONG TERM INVESTMENT MODEL WITH MEMORY

Akihiko Inoue and Yumiharu Nakano

We consider an investment model with memory in which the prices of n  
risky
assets are driven by an n-dimensional Gaussian process with stationary
increments that is different from Brownian motion. The driving  
process consists
of n independent components, and each component is characterized by two
parameters describing the memory. For the model, we explicitly solve the
problem of maximizing the expected growth rate as well as that of  
maximizing
the probability of overperforming a given benchmark.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0506621

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3517. GRADIENT BOUNDS FOR SOLUTIONS OF ELLIPTIC AND PARABOLIC EQUATIONS

Vladimir I. Bogachev and  Giuseppe Da Prato and  Michael R\"ockner  
and Zeev  Sobol

Let $L$ be a second order elliptic operator on $R^d$ with a constant
diffusion matrix and a dissipative (in a weak sense) drift $b \in L^p_ 
{loc}$
with some $p>d$.
   We assume that $L$ possesses a Lyapunov function, but no local  
boundedness of
$b$ is assumed. It is known that then there exists a unique  
probability measure
$\mu$ satisfying the equation $L^*\mu=0$ and that the closure of $L$ in
$L^1(\mu)$ generates a Markov semigroup $\{T_t\}_{t\ge 0}$ with the  
resolvent
$\{G_\lambda\}_{\lambda > 0}$.
   We prove that, for any Lipschitzian function $f\in L^1(\mu)$ and all
$t,\lambda>0$, the functions $T_tf$ and $G_\lambda f$ are  
Lipschitzian and
|\nabla T_tf(x)| \leq T_t|\nabla f|(x) and |\nabla G_\lambda f(x)| \leq
\frac{1}{\lambda} G_\lambda |\nabla f|(x).
   An analogous result is proved in the parabolic case.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507079

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3518. THE KINETIC LIMIT OF A SYSTEM OF COAGULATING PLANAR BROWNIAN  
PARTICLES

Alan Hammond and  Fraydoun Rezakhanlou

We study a model of mass-bearing coagulating planar Brownian particles.
Coagulation is prone to occur when two particles become within a  
distance of
order $\epsilon$. We assume that the initial number of particles is  
of the
order of $| \log \epsilon |. Under suitable assumptions on the initial
distribution of particles and the microscopic coagulation  
propensities, we show
that the macroscopic particle densities satisfy a Smoluchowski-type  
equation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507522

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3519. WEAK CONVERGENCE OF THE SCALED MEDIAN OF INDEPENDENT BROWNIAN  
MOTIONS

Jason Swanson

We consider the median of n independent Brownian motions, and show  
that this
process, when properly scaled, converges weakly to a centered  
Gaussian process.
The chief difficulty is establishing tightness, which is proved  
through direct
estimates on the increments of the median process. An explicit  
formula is given
for the covariance function of the limit process. The limit process  
is also
shown to be Holder continuous with exponent gamma for all gamma < 1/4.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507524

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3520. CONCENTRATION INEQUALITIES WITH EXCHANGEABLE PAIRS (PH.D. THESIS)

Sourav Chatterjee

The purpose of this dissertation is to introduce a version of Stein's  
method
of exchangeable pairs to solve problems in measure concentration. We
specifically target systems of dependent random variables, since that  
is where
the power of Stein's method is fully realized. Because the theory is  
quite
abstract, we have tried to put in as many examples as possible. Some  
of the
highlighted applications are as follows: (a) We shall find an easily  
verifiable
condition under which a popular heuristic technique originating from  
physics,
known as the ``mean field equations'' method, is valid. No such  
condition is
currently known. (b) We shall present a way of using couplings to derive
concentration inequalities. Although couplings are routinely used for  
proving
decay of correlations, no method for using couplings to derive  
concentration
bounds is available in the literature. This will be used to obtain (c)
concentration inequalities with explicit constants under Dobrushin's  
condition
of weak dependence. (d) We shall give a method for obtaining  
concentration of
Haar measures using convergence rates of related random walks on  
groups. Using
this technique and one of the numerous available results about rates of
convergence of random walks, we will then prove (e) a quantitative  
version of
Voiculescu's celebrated connection between random matrix theory and free
probability.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507526

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3521. A GENERALIZATION OF STATIONARY AR(1) SCHEMES

S Satheesh and  E Sandhya and S Sherly

Here we develop a first order autoregressive model {Xn} that is  
marginally
stationary where Xn is the sum/ extreme of k i.i.d observations. We  
prove that
stationary solutions to these models are either semi- selfdecomposable/
extreme-semi-selfdecomposable or, sum/ extreme stable with respect to  
Harris
distribution.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507535

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3522. ON PATHWISE UNIQUENESS FOR STOCHASTIC HEAT EQUATIONS WITH NON- 
LIPSCHITZ  COEFFICIENTS

Leonid Mytnik and  Edwin Perkins and  Anja Sturm

We consider the existence and pathwise uniqueness of the stochastic heat
equation with a multiplicative colored noise term on IR^d for d  
greater or
equal to 1. We focus on the case of non-Lipschitz noise coefficients and
singular spatial noise correlations. In the course of the proof a new  
result on
Hoelder continuity of the solutions near zero is established.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507545

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3523. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE MINIMUM HEIGHT AMONG PIVOTAL SITES IN  
CRITICAL  TWO-DIMENSIONAL PERCOLATION

Gregory J. Morrow and  Yu Zhang

Let L_n denote the lowest crossing of the 2n \times 2n square box B(n)
centered at the origin for critical site percolation on Z^2 or  
critical site
percolation on the triangular lattice imbedded in Z^2, and denote by  
Q_n the
set of pivotal sites along this crossing. On the event that a pivotal  
site
exists, denote the minimum height that a pivotal site attains above  
the bottom
of B(n) by M_n:= min{m:(x,-n+m)\in Q_n for some -n\le x\le n}. Else,  
define M_n
= 2n. We prove that P(M_n < m) \asymp m/n, uniformly for 1\le m\le n.  
This
relation extends Theorem 1 of van den Berg and Jarai (2003) who  
handle the
corresponding distribution for the lowest crossing in a slightly  
different
context. As a corollary we establish the asymptotic distribution of  
the minimum
height of the set of cut points of a certain chordal SLE_6 in the  
unit square
of C.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507566

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3524. ON COMPLETE CHARACTERIZATION OF COEFFICIENTS OF A.E.  
CONVERGING  ORTHOGONAL SERIES

Adam Paszkiewicz

We characterize sequences of numbers $(a_n)$ such that $\sum_{n\geq 1}
a_n\Phi_n$ converges a.e. for any orthonormal system $(\Phi_n)$ in any
$L_2$-space. In our criterion, we use the set $B =\{\sum_{m\geq n} | 
a_m|^2;
n\geq 1\}$ and its information function $$h_B(t) = -\log_3(\beta- 
\alpha)$$ for
$t\in (\alpha, \beta]$, $[\alpha, \beta]\cap B =\{\alpha, \beta\}.$


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0507568

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3525. LIMIT THEOREMS FOR WEIGHTED SAMPLES WITH APPLICATIONS TO  
SEQUENTIAL  MONTE CARLO METHODS

R. Douc (\'Ecole Polytechnique and  Palaiseau) and  France E.  
Moulines  (\'Ecole Nationale Sup\'erieure des T\'el\'ecommunications,  
Paris)

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a  
key
tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a  
sequence of
distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated  
to a
weighted population of particles. These particles and weights are  
generated
recursively according to elementary transformations: mutation and  
selection.
Examples of applications include the sequential Monte-Carlo  
techniques to solve
optimal non-linear filtering problems in state-space models, molecular
simulation, genetic optimization, etc.
   Despite many theoretical advances the asymptotic property of these
approximations remains of course a question of central interest. In  
this paper,
we analyze sequential Monte Carlo methods from an asymptotic  
perspective, that
is, we establish law of large numbers and invariance principle as the  
number of
particles gets large. We introduce the concepts of "weighted sample"
consistency and asymptotic normality, and derive conditions under  
which the
mutation and the selection procedure used in the sequential Monte-Carlo
build-up preserve these properties. To illustrate our findings, we  
analyze SMC
algorithms to approximate the filtering distribution in state-space  
models. We
show how our techniques allow to relax restrictive technical  
conditions used in
previously reported works and provide grounds to analyze more  
sophisticated
sequential sampling strategies.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0507042

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3526. THE CONTACT PROCESS SEEN FROM A TYPICAL INFECTED SITE

J.M. Swart

This paper considers contact processes on general lattices. Assuming  
that the
expected number of infected sites grows subexponentially, it is shown  
that the
configuration as seen from a typical (`Palmed') infected site at an
exponentially distributed time converges, as time tends to infinity,  
to the
upper invariant law conditioned on the origin being infected. The  
assumption
that the expected number of infected sites grows subexponentially is  
shown to
be satisfied if the lattice has subexponential growth and the  
infection rates
satisfy an exponential moment condition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507578

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3527. ESTIMATES OF POTENTIAL KERNEL AND HARNACK'S INEQUALITY FOR  
ANISOTROPIC  FRACTIONAL LAPLACIAN

Krzysztof Bogdan and Pawe{\l} Sztonyk

We characterize those homogeneous translation invariant symmetric non- 
local
operators with positive maximum principle whose harmonic functions  
satisfy
Harnack's inequality. We also estimate the corresponding semigroup  
and the
potential kernel.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507579

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3528. INTERNAL DIFFUSION LIMITED AGGREGATION ON DISCRETE GROUPS  
HAVING  EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Sebastien Blachere and Sara Brofferio

The Internal Diffusion Limited Aggregation has been introduced by  
Diaconis
and Fulton in 1991. It is a growth model defined on an infinite set and
associated to a Markov chain on this set. We focus here on sets which  
are
finitely generated groups with exponential growth. We prove a shape  
theorem for
the Internal DLA on such groups associated to symmetric random walks.  
For that
purpose, we introduce a new distance associated to the Green  
function, which
happens to have some interesting properties. In the case of  
homogeneous trees,
we also get the right order for the fluctuations of that model around  
its
limiting shape.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507582

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3529. GEOMETRIC CHARACTERISATION OF INTERMITTENCY IN THE PARABOLIC  
ANDERSON  MODEL

J. Gaertner and  W. Koenig and  S. Molchanov

We consider the parabolic Anderson problem $\partial_t u =\Delta u+\xi 
(x) u$
on $\R_+\times \Z^d$ with localized initial condition $u(0,x)=\delta_0 
(x)$ and
random i.i.d. potential $\xi$. Under the assumption that the  
distribution of
$\xi(0)$ lies in the vicinity of, or beyond, the double-exponential
distribution, we prove the following geometric characterisation of
intermittency: with probability one, as $t\to\infty$, the overwhelming
contribution to the total mass $\sum_x u(t,x)$ comes from a slowly  
increasing
number of islands which are located far from each other. These  
islands are
local regions of those high exceedances of the field $\xi$ in a box  
with radius
$t\log^2t$ for which the (local) principal Dirichlet eigenvalue of  
the random
operator $\Delta+\xi$ is close to maximal. We also prove that the  
shape of
$\xi$ in these regions is non-random and that $u(t,\cdot)$ is close  
to the
corresponding positive eigenfunction. This is the geometric picture  
suggested
by localization theory for the Anderson Hamiltonian.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507585

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3530. COAGULATION-FRAGMENTATION DUALITY, POISSON-DIRICHLET  
DISTRIBUTIONS AND  RANDOM RECURSIVE TREES

Rui Dong and  Christina Goldschmidt and James B. Martin

In this paper we give a new example of duality between fragmentation and
coagulation operators. Consider the space of partitions of mass (that  
is,
decreasing sequences of non-negative real numbers whose sum is 1) and  
the
two-parameter family of Poisson-Dirichlet distributions PD 
(alpha,theta), taking
values in this space. We introduce families of random fragmentation and
coagulation operators, Frag_{alpha} and Coag_{alpha,theta}  
respectively, with
the following property: if the input to Frag_{alpha} has PD(alpha,theta)
distribution then the output has PD(alpha,theta+1) distribution,  
while the
reverse is true for Coag_{alpha,theta}. This result may be proved  
using a
subordinator representation, and provides a companion set of  
relations to those
of Pitman between PD(alpha,theta) and PD(alpha*beta,theta). Repeated
application of the Frag_{alpha} operators gives rise to a family of
fragmentation chains. We show that these Markov chains can be encoded
natuarally by certain random recursive trees, and use this  
representation to
give an alternative and more concrete proof of the coagulation- 
fragmentation
duality.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507591

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3531. EXPLICIT INVARIANT MEASURES FOR PRODUCTS OF RANDOM MATRICES

Jens Marklof and  Yves Tourigny and  Lech Wolowski

We construct explicit invariant measures for a family of infinite  
products of
random, independent, identically-distributed elements of SL(2,C). The  
matrices
in the product are such that one entry is gamma-distributed along a  
ray in the
complex plane. When the ray is the positive real axis, the products  
are those
associated with a continued fraction studied by Letac and Seshadri  
[Z. Wahr.
Verw. Geb. 62 (1983) 485-489], who showed that the distribution of the
continued fraction is a generalised inverse Gaussian. We extend this  
result by
finding the distribution for an arbitrary ray in the complex right- 
half plane,
and thus compute the corresponding Lyapunov exponent explicitly. When  
the ray
lies on the imaginary axis, the matrices in the infinite product  
coincide with
the transfer matrices associated with a one-dimensional discrete  
Schroedinger
operator with a random, gamma-distributed potential. Hence, the explicit
knowledge of the Lyapunov exponent may be used to estimate the  
(exponential)
rate of localisation of the eigenstates.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0507069

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3532. INTER-ARRIVAL TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR THE NON-HOMOGENEOUS POISSON  
PROCESS

Gleb Yakovlev and  John B. Rundle and  Robert Shcherbakov and  and  
Donald L.  Turcotte

We derive an analytical expression of the inter-arrival time  
distribution for
a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This expression is exact  
and is
applicable to any time interval, finite or infinite. As an  
illustration, we
present simulation results for three different intensity functions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0507657

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3533. A FAST ALGORITHM FOR SIMULATING THE CHORDAL SCHRAMM-LOEWNER  
EVOLUTION

Tom Kennedy

The Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE) can be simulated by dividing the  
time
interval into N subintervals and approximating the random conformal  
map of the
SLE by the composition of N random, but relatively simple, conformal  
maps. In
the usual implementation the time required to compute a single point  
on the SLE
curve is O(N). We give an algorithm for which the time to compute a  
single
point is O(N^p) with p<1. Simulations with kappa=8/3 and kappa=6 both  
give a
value of p of approximately 0.4.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508002

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3534. ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS OF MULTISCALE APPROXIMATIONS TO REACTION  
NETWORKS

Karen Ball and  Tom Kurtz and  Lea Popovic and  and Greg Rempala

A reaction network is a chemical system involving multiple reactions and
chemical species. Stochastic models of such networks treat the system  
as a
continuous time Markov chain on the number of molecules of each  
species with
reactions as possible transitions of the chain. In many cases of  
biological
interest some of the chemical species in the network are present in much
greater abundance than others and reaction rate constants can vary  
over several
orders of magnitude. We consider approaches to approximation of such  
models
that take the multiscale nature of the system into account. Our  
primary example
is a model of a cell's viral infection for which we apply a  
combination of
averaging and law of large number arguments to show that the ``slow''  
component
of the model can be approximated by a deterministic equation and to
characterize the asymptotic distribution of the ``fast'' components.  
The main
goal is to illustrate techniques that can be used to reduce the  
dimensionality
of much more complex models.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508015

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3535. A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR THE UNIQUENESS OF THE STATIONARY  
STATE OF A  MARKOV SYSTEM

Ivan Werner

We continue the study of Markov systems started in \cite{Wer1}. In this
paper, we prove a generalization of Breiman's strong low of large  
numbers
\cite{Br} which implies a necessary condition for the uniqueness of the
stationary state of a Markov system.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508054

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3536. QUANTUM FILTERING: A REFERENCE PROBABILITY APPROACH

Luc Bouten and Ramon van Handel

These notes are intended as an introduction to noncommutative (quantum)
filtering theory. An introduction to quantum probability theory is  
given,
focusing on the spectral theorem and the conditional expectation as  
the least
squares estimate, and culminating in the construction of Wiener and  
Poisson
processes on the Fock space. Next we describe the Hudson- 
Parthasarathy quantum
Ito calculus and its use in the modelling of physical systems.  
Finally, we use
a reference probability method to obtain quantum filtering equations,  
in the
Belavkin-Zakai (unnormalized) form, for several system-observation  
models from
quantum optics. The normalized (Belavkin-Kushner-Stratonovich) form  
is obtained
through a noncommutative analogue of the Kallianpur-Striebel formula.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0508006

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3537. POSITION PLAY IN CAROM BILLIARDS AS A MARKOV PROCESS

Mathieu Bouville

Using certain techniques a billiards player can have long series of easy
shots --each shot leading to another easy shot-- and very high  
scores. As the
usual model for carom billiards assumes a Bernoulli process which  
does not
account for such correlations, it cannot capture this important  
feature of the
game. Modelling carom billiards as a Markov process, the probability  
to make a
shot can be made to depend on the previous shot. The improved  
agreement with
data is an indication that a Markov process indeed captures the  
effects of
position play better. Moreover it is possible to quantify how much a  
player
plays position. Given two players with the same average, one can tell  
the good
shot-maker from the good position player. This can be useful for  
players (and
their coaches) to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508089

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3538. GEODESICS IN FIRST PASSAGE PERCOLATION

Christopher Hoffman

We consider a wide class of ergodic first passage percolation  
processes on
Z^2 and prove that there exist at least four one-sided geodesics a.s.  
We also
show that coexistence is possible with positive probability in a four  
color
Richardson's growth model. This improves earlier results of Haggstrom  
and
Pemantle, Garet and Marchand, and Hoffman who proved that first passage
percolation has at least two geodesics and that coexistence is  
possible in a
two color Richardson's growth model.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508114

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3539. LIMIT SHAPES AND THE COMPLEX BURGERS EQUATION

Richard Kenyon and Andrei Okounkov

In this paper we study surfaces in R^3 that arise as limit shapes in  
a class
of random surface models arising from dimer models. The limit shapes are
minimizers of a surface tension functional, that is, they minimize,  
for fixed
boundary conditions, the integral of a quantity (the surface tension)  
depending
only on the slope of the surface. The surface tension as a function  
of the
slope has singularities and is not strictly convex, which leads to  
formation of
facets and edges in the limit shapes.
   We find a change of variables that reduces the Euler-Lagrange  
equation for
the variational problem to the complex inviscid Burgers equation  
(complex Hopf
equation). The equation can thus be solved in terms of an arbitrary  
holomorphic
function, which is somewhat similar in spirit to Weierstrass  
parametrization of
minimal surfaces. We further show that for a natural dense set of  
boundary
conditions, the holomorphic function in question is, in fact,  
algebraic. The
tools of algebraic geometry can thus be brought in to study the the  
minimizers
and, especially, the formation of their singularities. This is  
illustrated by
several explicitly computed examples.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0507007

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3540. A REFINEMENT OF THE EULERIAN NUMBERS, AND THE JOINT  
DISTRIBUTION OF  $\PI(1)$ AND DES($\PI$) IN $S_N$

Mark Conger

Given a permutation $\pi$ chosen uniformly from $S_n$, we explore the  
joint
distribution of $\pi(1)$ and the number of descents in $\pi$. We  
obtain a
formula for the number of permutations with $\des(\pi)=d$ and $\pi(1) 
=k$, and
use it to show that if $\des(\pi)$ is fixed at $d$, then the expected  
value of
$\pi(1)$ is $d+1$. We go on to derive generating functions for the joint
distribution, show that it is unimodal if viewed correctly, and show  
that when
$d$ is small the distribution of $\pi(1)$ among the permutations with  
$d$
descents is approximately geometric. Applications to Stein's method  
and the
Neggers-Stanley problem are presented.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0508112

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3541. COHERENT PERMUTATIONS WITH DESCENT STATISTIC AND THE BOUNDARY  
PROBLEM  FOR THE GRAPH OF ZIGZAG DIAGRAMS

Alexander Gnedin and Grigori Olshanski

The graph of zigzag diagrams is a close relative of Young's lattice. The
boundary problem for this graph amounts to describing coherent random
permutations with descent-set statistic, and is also related to certain
positive characters on the algebra of quasi-symmetric functions. We  
establish
connections to some further relatives of Young's lattice and solve  
the boundary
problem by reducing it to the classification of spreadable total  
orders on
integers, as recently obtained by Jacka and Warren.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0508131

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3542. RAINBOW HAMILTON CYCLES IN RANDOM REGULAR GRAPHS

Svante Janson and Nicholas Wormald

A rainbow subgraph of an edge-coloured graph has all edges of distinct
colours. A random d-regular graph with d even, and having edges coloured
randomly with d/2 of each of n colours, has a rainbow Hamilton cycle  
with
probability tending to 1 as n tends to infinity, provided d is at  
least 8.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0508145

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3543. BOUNDS FOR CRITICAL VALUES OF THE BAK-SNEPPEN MODEL ON  
TRANSITIVE GRAPHS

Alexis Gillett and  Ronald Meester and  Misja Nuyens

We study the Bak-Sneppen model on locally finite transitive graphs $G 
$, in
particular on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ and on $T_{\Delta}$, the regular tree  
with common
degree $\Delta$. We show that the avalanches of the Bak-Sneppen model  
dominate
independent site percolation, in a sense to be made precise. Together  
with the
fact that avalanches of the Bak-Sneppen model are dominated by a simple
branching process, this yields upper and lower bounds for the  
critical value
$p_c^{BS}(G)$ of the Bak-Sneppen model. Our main results state that
$\frac{1}{\Delta+1} \le p_c^{BS}(T_\Delta) \le \frac{1}{\Delta -1}$,  
and that
$\frac{1}{2d+1}\leq p_c^{BS}(\mathbb{Z}^d)\leq \frac{1}{2d}+
\frac{1}{(2d)^2}+O\big(d^{-3}\big)$, as $d\to\infty$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508167

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3544. ON A SIMPLE STRATEGY WEAKLY FORCING THE STRONG LAW OF LARGE  
NUMBERS IN  THE BOUNDED FORECASTING GAME

Masayuki Kumon and Akimichi Takemura

In the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk  
(2001)
it is of basic importance to construct an explicit strategy weakly  
forcing the
strong law of large numbers (SLLN) in the bounded forecasting game.  
We present
a simple finite-memory strategy based on the past average of  
Reality's moves,
which weakly forces the strong law of large numbers with the  
convergence rate
of $O(\sqrt{\log n/n})$. We also give a detailed analysis of the  
paths of
Skeptic's capital process for the case of the fair-coin game when our  
strategy
is used. We show that if Reality violates SLLN, then the exponential  
growth
rate of Skeptic's capital process is explicitly described in terms of  
the
Kullback divergence between the average of Reality's moves when she  
violates
SLLN and the average when she observes SLLN.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508190

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3545. HARMONICITY OF GIBBS MEASURES

Chris Connell and Roman Muchnik

In this paper we extend the construction of random walks with a  
prescribed
Poisson boundary to the case of measures in the class of a  
generalized Gibbs
state. The price for dropping the $\alpha$-quasiconformal assumptions  
is that
we must restrict our attention to CAT($-\kappa$) groups. Apart from  
the new
estimates required, we prove a new approximation scheme to provide a  
positive
basis for positive functions in a metric measure space.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.GR/0507033

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3546. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF PHYSICAL PROBABILITY ASSERTIONS

Joseph F. Johnson

A modification and generalisation of von Plato's fix of the frequency  
theory
of probability is presented. It is thermodynamic in nature. Von Plato  
already
fixed the logical circle in the frequency theory, we generalise his  
results to
not necessarily ergodic systems of classical and quantum mechanics.  
This turns
out to be precisely what is needed for the problem of Quantum  
Measurement and
the problem of induction.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/quant-ph/0508059

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3547. A SIMPLE INVARIANCE THEOREM

Sourav Chatterjee

We present a simple extension of Lindeberg's argument for the Central  
Limit
Theorem to get a general invariance result. We apply the technique to  
prove
results from random matrix theory, spin glasses, and maxima of random  
fields.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508213

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3548. NORMAL APPROXIMATIONS FOR DESCENTS AND INVERSIONS OF  
PERMUTATIONS OF  MULTISETS

Mark Conger and D. Viswanath

Normal approximations for descents and inversions of permutations of  
the set
$\{1,2,...,n\}$ are well known. A number of sequences that occur in  
practice,
such as the human genome and other genomes, contain many repeated  
elements.
Motivated by such examples, we consider the number of inversions of a
permutation $\pi(1), \pi(2),...,\pi(n)$ of a multiset with $n$  
elements, which
is the number of pairs $(i,j)$ with $1\leq i < j \leq n$ and $\pi(i)> 
\pi(j)$.
The number of descents is the number of $i$ in the range $1\leq i < n 
$ such
that $\pi(i) > \pi(i+1)$. We prove that, appropriately normalized, the
distribution of both inversions and descents of a random permutation  
of the
multiset approaches the normal distribution as $n\to\infty$, provided  
that the
permutation is equally likely to be any possible permutation of the  
multiset
and no element occurs more than $\alpha n$ times in the multiset for  
a fixed
$\alpha$ with $0<\alpha < 1$. Both normal approximation theorems are  
proved
using the size biased version of Stein's method of auxiliary  
randomization and
are accompanied by error bounds.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508242

---------------------------------------------------------------

3549. LAWS OF THE ITERATED LOGARITHM FOR \ALPHA-TIME BROWNIAN MOTION

Erkan Nanw

We introduce a class of iterated processes called $\alpha$-time Brownian
motion for $0<\alpha \leq 2$. These are obtained by taking Brownian  
motion and
replacing the time parameter with a symmetric $\alpha$-stable  
process. We prove
a Chung-type law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for these processes  
which is a
generalization of LIL proved in \cite{hu} for iterated Brownian  
motion. When
$\alpha =1$ it takes the following form $$ \liminf_{T\to\infty}T^ 
{-1/2}(\log
\log T) \sup_{0\leq t\leq T}|Z_{t}|=\pi^{2}\sqrt{\lambda_{1}} a.s. $$  
where
$\lambda_{1}$ is the first eigenvalue for the Cauchy process in the  
interval
$[-1,1].$ We also define the local time $L^{*}(x,t)$ and range $R^{*} 
(t)=|\{x:
Z(s)=x \text{for some} s\leq t\}|$ for these processes for $1<\alpha  
<2$. We
prove that there are universal constants $c_{R},c_{L}\in (0,\infty) $  
such that
$$ \limsup_{t\to\infty}\frac{R^{*}(t)}{(t/\log \log t)^{1/2\alpha} 
\log \log t}=
c_{R} a.s. $$ $$
   \liminf_{t\to\infty} \frac{\sup_{x\in \RR{R}}L^{*}(x,t)}{(t/\log \log
t)^{1-1/2\alpha}}= c_{L} a.s. $$


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508261

---------------------------------------------------------------

3550. HIGHER ORDER PDE'S AND ITERATED PROCESSES

Erkan nane

We introduce a class of stochastic processes based on symmetric
$\alpha$-stable processes, for $\alpha \in (0,2]$ rational.
These are obtained by taking Markov processes and replacing the time  
parameter
with the modulus of a symmetric $\alpha$-stable process. We call them
$\alpha$-time processes. They generalize Brownian time processes  
studied in
\cite{allouba1, allouba2, allouba3}, and they introduce new interesting
examples. We establish the connection of
$\alpha-$time processes to some higher order PDE's. We also study the  
exit
problem for $\alpha$-time processes as they exit regular domains and  
connect
them to elliptic PDE's. We also obtain the PDE connection of  
subordinate killed
Brownian motion in bounded domains of regular boundary.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508262

---------------------------------------------------------------

3551. THE ARITHMETIC OF DISTRIBUTIONS IN FREE PROBABILITY THEORY

G. Chistyakov and F. G\"otze

We give a new approach to the definition of additive and  
multiplicative free
convolutions which is based on the theory of Nevanlinna and of Schur  
functions.
We consider the set of probability distributions as a semigroup M  
equipped with
the operation of free convolution and prove a Khintchine type theorem  
for
factorization of elements of this semigroup. Any element of M  
contains either
indecomposable factors or it belongs to a class, say I_0, of  
distributions
without indecomposable factors. In contrast to the classical convolution
semigroup in the free additive and multiplicative convolution  
semigroups the
class I_0 consists of units (i.e. Dirac measures) only. Furthermore  
we show
that the set of indecomposable elements is dense in M.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0508245

---------------------------------------------------------------

3552. AUTOMATIC FILTERS FOR THE DETECTION OF COHERENT STRUCTURE IN   
SPATIOTEMPORAL SYSTEMS

Cosma Rohilla Shalizi and  Robert Haslinger and  Jean-Baptiste  
Rouquier and   Kristina Lisa Klinkner, Cristopher Moore

Most current methods for identifying coherent structures in
spatially-extended systems rely on prior information about the form  
which those
structures take. Here we present two new approaches to automatically  
filter the
changing configurations of spatial dynamical systems and extract  
coherent
structures. One, local sensitivity filtering, is a modification of  
the local
Lyapunov exponent approach suitable to cellular automata and other  
discrete
spatial systems. The other, local statistical complexity filtering,  
calculates
the amount of information needed for optimal prediction of the system's
behavior in the vicinity of a given point. By examining the changing
spatiotemporal distributions of these quantities, we can find the  
coherent
structures in a variety of pattern-forming cellular automata, without  
needing
to guess or postulate the form of that structure. We apply both  
filters to
elementary and cyclical cellular automata (ECA and CCA) and find that  
they
readily identify particles, domains and other more complicated  
structures. We
compare the results from ECA with earlier ones based upon the theory  
of formal
languages, and the results from CCA with a more traditional approach  
based on
an order parameter and free energy. While sensitivity and statistical
complexity are equally adept at uncovering structure, they are based on
different system properties (dynamical and probabilistic,  
respectively), and
provide complementary information.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/nlin.CG/0508001

---------------------------------------------------------------

3553. ALMOST SURE RECURRENCE OF THE SIMPLE RANDOM WALK PATH

Itai Benjamini and  Ori Gurel-Gurevich

It is shown that the simple random walk path on a bounded degree graph,
consisting of all vertices visited and edges crossed by the walk, is  
almost
surely a recurrent subgraph.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508270

---------------------------------------------------------------

3554. CONTINUITY OF THE MIXING OPERATOR

Mikhail Kovtun

Mixed distributions are considered as a results of application of a  
linear
operator, which maps mixing measures to mixed measures. The main  
result is a
proof of continuity of this mixing operator. Corollaries for parametric
families of distributions (usually considered in literature) are also
discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508296

---------------------------------------------------------------

3555. EVERY DECISION TREE HAS AN INFLUENTIAL VARIABLE

Ryan O'Donnell and  Michael Saks and  Oded Schramm and  Rocco A.  
Servedio

We prove that for any decision tree calculating a boolean function
$f:\{-1,1\}^n\to\{-1,1\}$, \[ \Var[f] \le \sum_{i=1}^n \delta_i \Inf_i 
(f), \]
where $\delta_i$ is the probability that the $i$th input variable is  
read and
$\Inf_i(f)$ is the influence of the $i$th variable on $f$. The variance,
influence and probability are taken with respect to an arbitrary product
measure on $\{-1,1\}^n$. It follows that the minimum depth of a  
decision tree
calculating a given balanced function is at least the reciprocal of  
the largest
influence of any input variable. Likewise, any balanced boolean  
function with a
decision tree of depth $d$ has a variable with influence at least
$\frac{1}{d}$. The only previous nontrivial lower bound known was $ 
\Omega(d
2^{-d})$. Our inequality has many generalizations, allowing us to prove
influence lower bounds for randomized decision trees, decision trees on
arbitrary product probability spaces, and decision trees with non- 
boolean
outputs. As an application of our results we give a very easy proof  
that the
randomized query complexity of nontrivial monotone graph properties  
is at least
$\Omega(v^{4/3}/p^{1/3})$, where $v$ is the number of vertices and $p  
\leq
\half$ is the critical threshold probability. This supersedes the  
milestone
$\Omega(v^{4/3})$ bound of Hajnal and is sometimes superior to the  
best known
lower bounds of Chakrabarti-Khot and Friedgut-Kahn-Wigderson.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.CC/0508071

---------------------------------------------------------------

3556. COMBINATIONS AND MIXTURES OF OPTIMAL POLICIES IN UNICHAIN  
MARKOV  DECISION PROCESSES ARE OPTIMAL

Ronald Ortner

We show that combinations of optimal (stationary) policies in  
unichain Markov
decision processes are optimal. That is, let M be a unichain Markov  
decision
process with state space S, action space A and policies \pi_j^*: S ->  
A (1\leq
j\leq n) with optimal average infinite horizon reward. Then any  
combination \pi
of these policies, where for each state i in S there is a j such that
\pi(i)=\pi_j^*(i), is optimal as well. Furthermore, we prove that any  
mixture
of optimal policies, where at each visit in a state i an arbitrary  
action
\pi_j^*(i) of an optimal policy is chosen, yields optimal average  
reward, too.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0508319

---------------------------------------------------------------

3557. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A CLASS OF IRREDUCIBLE MULTICOLOR  
URN MODELS

Gopal K. Basak and Amites Dasgupta

We take a unified approach to central limit theorems for a class of
irreducible urn models with constant replacement matrix. Depending on  
the
eigenvalue, we consider appropriate linear combinations of the number  
of balls
of different colors. Then under appropriate norming the multivariate
distribution of the weak limits of these linear combinations is  
obtained and
independence and dependence issues are investigated.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507084

---------------------------------------------------------------

3558. A LATTICE SCHEME FOR STOCHASTIC PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS  
OF  ELLIPTIC TYPE IN DIMENSION $D\GE 4$

Teresa Mart\'inez and Marta Sanz-Sol\'e

We study a stochastic boundary value problem on $(0,1)^d$ of elliptic  
type in
dimension $d\ge 4$, driven by a coloured noise. An approximation  
scheme based
on a suitable discretization of the Laplacian on a lattice of $(0,1)^d 
$ is
presented; we also give the rate of convergence to the original SPDE in
$L^p(\Omega;L^{2}(D))$--norm, for some values of $p$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508339

---------------------------------------------------------------

3559. THE SCALING LIMIT OF LOOP-ERASED RANDOM WALK IN THREE DIMENSIONS

Gady Kozma

We show that the scaling limit exists and is invariant to dilations and
rotations. We give some tools that might be useful to show universality.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508344

---------------------------------------------------------------

3560. HYDRODYNAMIC LIMIT FLUCTUATIONS OF SUPER-BROWNIAN MOTION WITH A  
STABLE  CATALYST

Klaus Fleischmann and  Peter Moerters and  and Vitali Wachtel

We consider the behaviour of a continuous super-Brownian motion  
catalysed by
a random medium with infinite overall density under the hydrodynamic  
scaling of
mass, time, and space. We show that, in supercritical dimensions, the  
scaled
process converges to a macroscopic heat flow, and the appropriately  
rescaled
random fluctuations around this macroscopic flow are asymptotically  
bounded, in
the sense of log-Laplace transforms, by generalised stable Ornstein- 
Uhlenbeck
processes. The most interesting new effect we observe is the  
occurrence of an
index-jump from a 'Gaussian' situation to stable fluctuations of  
index 1+gamma,
where gamma is an index associated to the medium.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508368

---------------------------------------------------------------

3561. RANDOM ORDERINGS OF THE INTEGERS AND CARD SHUFFLING

Saul Jacka and Jon Warren

In this paper we study random orderings of the integers with a certain
invariance property. We describe all such orders in a simple way. We  
define and
represent random shuffles of a countable set of labels and then give an
interpretation of these orders in terms of a class of generalized riffle
shuffles.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508369

---------------------------------------------------------------

3562. ALMOST SURE CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS TO NON-HOMOGENEOUS  
STOCHASTIC  DIFFERENCE EQUATION

Gregory Berkolaiko and  Alexandra Rodkina

We consider a non-homogeneous nonlinear stochastic difference equation
   X_{n+1} = X_n (1 + f(X_n)\xi_{n+1}) + S_n, and its important  
special case
   X_{n+1} = X_n (1 + \xi_{n+1}) + S_n, both with initial value X_0,  
non-random
decaying free coefficient S_n and independent random variables \xi_n. We
establish results on \as convergence of solutions X_n to zero. The  
necessary
conditions we find tie together certain moments of the noise \xi_n  
and the rate
of decay of S_n. To ascertain sharpness of our conditions we discuss  
some
situations when X_n diverges. We also establish a result concerning  
the rate of
decay of X_n to zero.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508371

---------------------------------------------------------------

3563. ON CONVERGENCE TO EQUILIBRIUM DISTRIBUTION, II. THE WAVE  
EQUATION IN ODD  DIMENSIONS, WITH MIXING

T.V. Dudnikova and  A.I. Komech and  N.E. Ratanov and  Yu.M. Suhov

The paper considers the wave equation, with constant or variable  
coefficients
in $\R^n$, with odd $n\geq 3$. We study the asymptotics of the  
distribution
$\mu_t$ of the random solution at time $t\in\R$ as $t\to\infty$. It  
is assumed
that the initial measure $\mu_0$ has zero mean, translation-invariant
covariance matrices, and finite expected energy density. We also  
assume that
$\mu_0$ satisfies a Rosenblatt- or Ibragimov-Linnik-type space mixing
condition. The main result is the convergence of $\mu_t$ to a  
Gaussian measure
$\mu_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, which gives a Central Limit Theorem  
(CLT) for the
wave equation. The proof for the case of constant coefficients is  
based on an
analysis of long-time asymptotics of the solution in the Fourier  
representation
and Bernstein's `room-corridor' argument. The case of variable  
coefficients is
treated by using a version of the scattering theory for infinite energy
solutions, based on Vainberg's results on local energy decay.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0508039

---------------------------------------------------------------

3564. RANK STATISTICS IN BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION

E. Ben-Naim and  P.L. Krapivsky

We present a statistical analysis of biological evolution processes.
Specifically, we study the stochastic replication-mutation-death  
model where
the population of a species may grow or shrink by birth or death,  
respectively,
and additionally, mutations lead to the creation of new species. We  
rank the
various species by the chronological order by which they originate.  
The average
population N_k of the kth species decays algebraically with rank, N_k  
~ M^{mu}
k^{-mu}, where M is the average total population. The characteristic  
exponent
mu=(alpha-gamma)/(alpha+beta-gamma)$ depends on alpha, beta, and  
gamma, the
replication, mutation, and death rates. Furthermore, the average  
population P_k
of all descendants of the kth species has a universal algebraic  
behavior, P_k ~
M/k.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/q-bio.PE/0508023

---------------------------------------------------------------

3565. CLASSICAL BI-POISSON PROCESS: AN INVERTIBLE QUADRATIC HARNESS

Wlodzimierz Bryc and Jacek Wesolowski

We give an elementary construction of a time-invertible Markov  
process which
is discrete except at one instance. The process is one of the quadratic
harnesses studied in our previous papers and can be regarded as a  
random joint
of two independent Poisson processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508383

---------------------------------------------------------------

3566. ROUTING IN POISSON SMALL-WORLD NETWORKS

M. Draief and A. Ganesh

In recent work, Jon Kleinberg considered a small-world network model
consisting of a d-dimensional lattice augmented with shortcuts. The  
probability
of a shortcut being present between two points decays as a power of the
distance between them. Kleinberg studied the efficiency of greedy  
routing
depending on the value of the power. The results were extended to a  
continuum
model by Franceschetti and Meester. In our work, we extend the result  
to more
realistic models constructed from a Poisson point process, wherein  
each point
is connected to all its neighbours within some fixed radius, as well as
possessing random shortcuts to more distant nodes as described above.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508410

---------------------------------------------------------------

3567. BROWNIAN LOCAL MINIMA AND OTHER RANDOM DENSE COUNTABLE SETS

Boris Tsirelson

We compare two examples of random dense countable sets, `Brownian local
minima' and `unordered uniform infinite sample'. They appear to be  
identically
distributed. A framework for such notions is proposed. In addition,  
random
elements of other singular spaces (especially, reals modulo  
rationals) are
considered.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508414

---------------------------------------------------------------

3568. ON THE STRONG CONSISTENCY OF APPROXIMATED M-ESTIMATORS

Djalil Chafai (LSProba and  Upte Umr Inra/Envt 181) and  Didier  
Concordet  (LSProba, Upte Umr Inra/Envt 181)

The aim of this article is to provide a strong consistency Theorem for
approximated M-estimators. It contains both Wald and Pfanzagl type  
results for
maximum likelihood. The proof relies, in particular, on the existence  
of a sort
of contraction of the parameter space which admits the true parameter  
as a
fixed point. In a way, it can be seen as a simplification of ideas of  
Wang and
Pfanzagl, generalised to approximated M-estimators. Proofs are short and
elementary.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507102

---------------------------------------------------------------

3569. ON CONVERGENCE TO EQUILIBRIUM DISTRIBUTION, I. THE KLEIN -  
GORDON  EQUATION WITH MIXING

T.V. Dudnikova and  A.I. Komech and  E.A. Kopylova and  Yu.M. Suhov

Consider the Klein-Gordon equation (KGE) in $\R^n$, $n\ge 2$, with  
constant
or variable coefficients. We study the distribution $\mu_t$ of the  
random
solution at time $t\in\R$. We assume that the initial probability  
measure
$\mu_0$ has zero mean, a translation-invariant covariance, and a  
finite mean
energy density. We also asume that $\mu_0$ satisfies a Rosenblatt- or
Ibragimov-Linnik-type mixing condition. The main result is the  
convergence of
$\mu_t$ to a Gaussian probability measure as $t\to\infty$ which gives  
a Central
Limit Theorem for the KGE. The proof for the case of constant  
coefficients is
based on an analysis of long time asymptotics of the solution in the  
Fourier
representation and Bernstein's `room-corridor' argument. The case of  
variable
coefficients is treated by using an `averaged' version of the  
scattering theory
for infinite energy solutions, based on Vainberg's results on local  
energy
decay.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0508042

---------------------------------------------------------------

3570. ON A TWO-TEMPERATURE PROBLEM FOR WAVE EQUATION

T.V. Dudnikova and  A.I. Komech and  H. Spohn

Consider the wave equation with constant or variable coefficients in $ 
\R^3$.
The initial datum is a random function with a finite mean density of  
energy
that also satisfies a Rosenblatt- or Ibragimov-Linnik-type mixing  
condition.
The random function converges to different space-homogeneous  
processes as
$x_3\to\pm\infty$, with the distributions $\mu_\pm$. We study the  
distribution
$\mu_t$ of the random solution at a time $t\in\R$. The main result is  
the
convergence of $\mu_t$ to a Gaussian translation-invariant measure as
$t\to\infty$ that means central limit theorem for the wave equation.  
The proof
is based on the Bernstein `room-corridor' argument. The application  
to the case
of the Gibbs measures $\mu_\pm=g_\pm$ with two different temperatures  
$T_{\pm}$
is given. Limiting mean energy current density formally is $-\infty\cdot
(0,0,T_+ -T_-)$ for the Gibbs measures, and it is finite and equals to
$-C(0,0,T_+ -T_-)$ with $C>0$ for the convolution with a nontrivial test
function.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0508044

---------------------------------------------------------------

3571. RAMDOM WALKS ON HYPERGROUP OF CIRCLES IN FINITE FIELDS

Le Anh Vinh

In this paper we study random walks on the hypergroup of circles in a  
finite
field of prime order p = 4l + 3. We investigating the behavior of  
random walks
on this hypergroup, the equilibrium distribution and the mixing  
times. We use
two different approaches - comparision of Dirichlet forms (geometric  
bound of
eigenvalues), and coupling methods, to show that the mixing time of  
random
walks on hypergroup of circles is only linear.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0508403

---------------------------------------------------------------

3572. MALLIAVIN CALCULUS FOR LIE GROUP-VALUED WIENER FUNCTIONS

Tai Melcher

Let G be a Lie group equipped with a set of left invariant vector  
fields.
These vector fields generate a function \xi on Wiener space into G  
via the
stochastic version of Cartan's rolling map. It is shown here that,  
for any
smooth function f with compact support, f(\xi) is Malliavin  
differentiable to
all orders and these derivatives belong to L^p(\mu) for all p>1,  
where \mu is
Wiener measure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508419

---------------------------------------------------------------

3573. ON A QUESTION OF CHUNG, DIACONIS, AND GRAHAM

Martin Hildebrand

Chung, Diaconis, and Graham considered random processes of the form
X_{n+1}=2X_n+b_n (mod p) where X_0=0, p is odd, and b_n for  
n=0,1,2,... are
i.i.d. random variables on {-1,0,1}. If Pr(b_n=-1)= Pr(b_n=1)=\beta and
Pr(b_n=0)=1-2\beta, they asked which value of \beta makes X_n get  
close to
uniformly distributed on the integers mod p the slowest. In this  
paper, we
extend the results of Chung, Diaconis, and Graham in the case p=2^t-1  
to show
that for 0<\beta<=1/2, there is no such value of \beta.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508427

---------------------------------------------------------------

3574. LONG-RANGE PERCOLATION IN R^D

Bela Bollobas and  Svante Janson and Oliver Riordan

Let $X$ be either $Z^d$ or the points of a Poisson process in $R^d$ of
intensity 1. Given parameters $r$ and $p$, join each pair of points  
of $X$
within distance $r$ independently with probability $p$. This is the  
simplest
case of a `spread-out' percolation model studied by Penrose, who  
showed that,
as $r\to\infty$, the average degree of the corresponding random graph  
at the
percolation threshold tends to 1, i.e., the percolation threshold and  
the
threshold for criticality of the naturally associated branching process
approach one another. Here we show that this result follows  
immediately from of
a general result of the authors on inhomogeneous random graphs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508430

---------------------------------------------------------------

3575. HYPOELLIPTIC HEAT KERNEL INEQUALITIES ON LIE GROUPS

Tai Melcher

This paper discusses the existence of gradient estimates for second  
order
hypoelliptic heat kernels on manifolds. It is now standard that such
inequalities, in the elliptic case, are equivalent to a lower bound  
on the
Ricci tensor of the Riemannian metric. For hypoelliptic operators, the
associated ``Ricci curvature'' takes on the value -\infty at points of
degeneracy of the semi-Riemannian metric associated to the operator.  
For this
reason, the standard proofs for the elliptic theory fail in the  
hypoelliptic
setting.
   This paper presents recent results for hypoelliptic operators.  
Malliavin
calculus methods transfer the problem to one of determining certain  
infinite
dimensional estimates. Here, the underlying manifold is a Lie group,  
and the
hypoelliptic operators are invariant under left translation. In  
particular,
``L^p-type'' gradient estimates hold for p\in(1,\infty), and the p=2  
gradient
estimate implies a Poincar\'e estimate in this context.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0508420

---------------------------------------------------------------

3576. THE KLEE-MINTY RANDOM EDGE CHAIN MOVES WITH LINEAR SPEED

Jozsef Balogh and  Robin Pemantle

An infinite sequence of 0's and 1's evolves by flipping each~1 to a~0
exponentially at rate one. When a~1 flips, all bits to its right also  
flip.
Starting from any configuration with finitely many 1's to the left of  
the
origin, we show that the leftmost~1 moves right with linear speed.  
Upper and
lower bounds are given on the speed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0506626

---------------------------------------------------------------

3577. FAST COMPUTATION OF THE ECONOMIC CAPITAL, THE VALUE AT RISK AND  
THE  GREEKS OF A LOAN PORTFOLIO IN THE GAUSSIAN FACTOR MODEL

P.Okunev

We propose a fast algorithm for computing the economic capital, Value  
at Risk
and Greeks in the Gaussian factor model. The algorithm proposed here  
is much
faster than brute force Monte Carlo simulations or Fourier transform  
based
methods \cite{MD}. While the algorithm of Hull-White \cite{HW} is  
comparably
fast, it assumes that all the loans in the portfolio have equal  
notionals and
recovery rates. This is a very restrictive assumption which is  
unrealistic for
many portfolios encountered in practice. Our algorithm makes no  
assumptions
about the homogeneity of the portfolio. Additionally, it is easier to  
implement
than the algorithm of Hull-White. We use the implicit function  
theorem to
derive analytic expressions for the Greeks.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0507082

---------------------------------------------------------------

3578. ON FILTERING OF MARKOV CHAINS IN STRONG NOISE

P.Chigansky

The filtering problem for a finite state Markov chain observed in  
white noise
is addressed in continuous time. The low signal to noise asymptotic  
is derived
for the performance indices of MAP and MMSE estimates of the signal.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508446

---------------------------------------------------------------

3579. WEAK TYPE ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED TO BURKHOLDER'S MARTINGALE  
INEQUALITY

Javier Parcet

Given a probability space $(\Omega, \mathsf{A}, \mu)$, let $\mathsf{A} 
_1,
\mathsf{A}_2, ...$ be a filtration of $\sigma$-subalgebras of $\mathsf 
{A}$ and
let $\mathsf{E}_1, \mathsf{E}_2, ...$ denote the corresponding family of
conditional expectations. Given a martingale $f = (f_1, f_2, ...)$  
adapted to
this filtration and bounded in $L_p(\Omega)$ for some $2 \le p <  
\infty$,
Burkholder's inequality claims that $$\|f\|_{L_p(\Omega)} \sim_ 
{\mathrm{c}_p}
\Big\| \Big(\sum_{k=1}^\infty \mathsf{E}_{k-1}(|df_k|^2) \Big)^{1/2}
\Big\|_{L_{p}(\Omega)} + \Big(\sum_{k=1}^\infty \|df_k\|_p^p \Big)^{1/ 
p}.$$
Motivated by quantum probability, Junge and Xu recently extended this  
result to
the range $1 < p < 2$. In this paper we study Burkholder's inequality  
for
$p=1$, for which the techniques (as we shall explain) must be  
different. Quite
surprisingly, we obtain two non-equivalent estimates which play the  
role of the
weak type $(1,1)$ analog of Burkholder's inequality. As application,  
we obtain
new properties of Davis decomposition for martingales.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508447

---------------------------------------------------------------

3580. UTILITY MAXIMIZATION IN INCOMPLETE MARKETS

Ying Hu and  Peter Imkeller and Matthias Muller

We consider the problem of utility maximization for small traders on
incomplete financial markets. As opposed to most of the papers  
dealing with
this subject, the investors' trading strategies we allow underly  
constraints
described by closed, but not necessarily convex, sets. The final wealths
obtained by trading under these constraints are identified as stochastic
processes which usually are supermartingales, and even martingales for
particular strategies. These strategies are seen to be optimal, and the
corresponding value functions determined simply by the initial values  
of the
supermartingales. We separately treat the cases of exponential, power  
and
logarithmic utility.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508448

---------------------------------------------------------------

3581. EQUIVALENT AND ABSOLUTELY CONTINUOUS MEASURE CHANGES FOR JUMP- 
DIFFUSION  PROCESSES

Patrick Cheridito and  Damir Filipovic and Marc Yor

We provide explicit sufficient conditions for absolute continuity and
equivalence between the distributions of two jump-diffusion processes  
that can
explode and be killed by a potential.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508450

---------------------------------------------------------------

3582. ON THE POWER OF TWO CHOICES: BALLS AND BINS IN CONTINUOUS TIME

Malwina J. Luczak and Colin McDiarmid

Suppose that there are n bins, and balls arrive in a Poisson process  
at rate
\lambda n, where \lambda >0 is a constant. Upon arrival, each ball  
chooses a
fixed number d of random bins, and is placed into one with least  
load. Balls
have independent exponential lifetimes with unit mean. We show that  
the system
converges rapidly to its equilibrium distribution; and when d\geq 2,  
there is
an integer-valued function m_d(n)=\ln \ln n/\ln d+O(1) such that, in the
equilibrium distribution, the maximum load of a bin is concentrated  
on the two
values m_d(n) and m_d(n)-1, with probability tending to 1, as n\to  
\infty. We
show also that the maximum load usually does not vary by more than a  
constant
amount from \ln \ln n/\ln d, even over quite long periods of time.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508451

---------------------------------------------------------------

3583. HYPOELLIPTICITY IN INFINITE DIMENSIONS AND AN APPLICATION IN  
INTEREST  RATE THEORY

Fabrice Baudoin and Josef Teichmann

We apply methods from Malliavin calculus to prove an infinite- 
dimensional
version of Hormander's theorem for stochastic evolution equations in  
the spirit
of Da Prato-Zabczyk. This result is used to show that HJM-equations from
interest rate theory, which satisfy the Hormander condition, have the
conceptually undesirable feature that any selection of yields admits  
a density
as multi-dimensional random variable.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508452

---------------------------------------------------------------

3584. THE COALESCENT EFFECTIVE SIZE OF AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATIONS

Serik Sagitov and Peter Jagers

We establish convergence to the Kingman coalescent for a class of
age-structured population models with time-constant population size.  
Time is
discrete with unit called a year. Offspring numbers in a year may  
depend on
mother's age.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508454

---------------------------------------------------------------

3585. REPRESENTATION OF SOLUTIONS TO BSDES ASSOCIATED WITH A  
DEGENERATE FSDE

Jianfeng Zhang

In this paper we investigate a class of decoupled forward-backward SDEs,
where the volatility of the FSDE is degenerate and the terminal value  
of the
BSDE is a discontinuous function of the FSDE. Such an FBSDE is  
associated with
a degenerate parabolic PDE with discontinuous terminal condition. We  
first
establish a Feynman-Kac type representation formula for the spatial  
derivative
of the solution to the PDE. As a consequence, we show that there  
exists a
stopping time \tau such that the martingale integrand of the BSDE is  
continuous
before \tau and vanishes after \tau. However, it may blow up at \tau, as
illustrated by an example. Moreover, some estimates for the martingale
integrand before \tau are obtained. These results are potentially  
useful for
pricing and hedging discontinuous exotic options (e.g., digital  
options) when
the underlying asset's volatility is small, and they are also useful for
studying the rate of convergence of finite-difference approximations for
degenerate parabolic PDEs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508457

---------------------------------------------------------------

3586. THE SIZES OF THE PIONEERING, LOWEST CROSSING AND PIVOTAL SITES  
IN  CRITICAL PERCOLATION ON THE TRIANGULAR LATTICE

G. J. Morrow and Y. Zhang

Let L_n denote the lowest crossing of a square 2n\times2n box for  
critical
site percolation on the triangular lattice imbedded in Z^2. Denote  
also by F_n
the pioneering sites extending below this crossing, and Q_n the  
pivotal sites
on this crossing. Combining the recent results of Smirnov and Werner  
[Math.
Res. Lett. 8 (2001) 729-744] on asymptotic probabilities of multiple  
arm paths
in both the plane and half-plane, Kesten's [Comm. Math. Phys. 109 (1987)
109-156] method for showing that certain restricted multiple arm  
paths are
probabilistically equivalent to unrestricted ones, and our own second  
and
higher moment upper bounds, we obtain the following results. For each  
positive
integer \tau, as n\to\infty: 1. E(|L_n|^{\tau})=n^{4\tau/3+o(1)}. 2.
E(|F_n|^{\tau})=n^{7\tau/4+o(1)}. 3. E(|Q_n|^{\tau})=n^{3\tau/4+o 
(1)}. These
results extend to higher moments a discrete analogue of the recent  
results of
Lawler, Schramm and Werner [Math. Res. Lett. 8 (2001) 401-411] that the
frontier, pioneering points and cut points of planar Brownian motion  
have
Hausdorff dimensions, respectively, 4/3, 7/4 and 3/4.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508459

---------------------------------------------------------------

3587. A LARGE DEVIATIONS APPROACH TO ASYMPTOTICALLY OPTIMAL CONTROL  
OF  CRISSCROSS NETWORK IN HEAVY TRAFFIC

Amarjit Budhiraja and Arka Prasanna Ghosh

In this work we study the problem of asymptotically optimal control of a
well-known multi-class queuing network, referred to as the ``crisscross
network,'' in heavy traffic. We consider exponential inter-arrival  
and service
times, linear holding cost and an infinite horizon discounted cost  
criterion.
In a suitable parameter regime, this problem has been studied in  
detail by
Martins, Shreve and Soner [SIAM J. Control Optim. 34 (1996)  
2133-2171] using
viscosity solution methods. In this work, using the pathwise solution  
of the
Brownian control problem, we present an elementary and transparent  
treatment of
the problem (with the identical parameter regime as in [SIAM J.  
Control Optim.
34 (1996) 2133-2171]) using large deviation ideas introduced in [Ann.  
Appl.
Probab. 10 (2000) 75-103, Ann. Appl. Probab. 11 (2001) 608-649]. We  
obtain an
asymptotically optimal scheduling policy which is of threshold type.  
The proof
is of independent interest since it is one of the few results which  
gives the
asymptotic optimality of a control policy for a network with a more than
one-dimensional workload process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508460

---------------------------------------------------------------

3588. THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A HIGH BOUNDARY ON A RANDOM TIME  
INTERVAL  FOR A HEAVY-TAILED RANDOM WALK

Serguei Foss and  Zbigniew Palmowski and Stan Zachary

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed
increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new
techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998)  
354-374]
to completely general stopping times, uniformity of convergence over all
stopping times and a wide class of nonlinear boundaries. We also give  
some
examples and counterexamples.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508461

---------------------------------------------------------------

3589. EQUILIBRIUM FOR FRAGMENTATION WITH IMMIGRATION

Benedicte Haas

This paper introduces stochastic processes that describe the  
evolution of
systems of particles in which particles immigrate according to a Poisson
measure and split according to a self-similar fragmentation. Criteria  
for
existence and absence of stationary distributions are established and
uniqueness is proved. Also, convergence rates to the stationary  
distribution
are given. Linear equations which are the deterministic counterparts of
fragmentation with immigration processes are next considered. As in the
stochastic case, existence and uniqueness of solutions, as well as  
existence
and uniqueness of stationary solutions, are investigated.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508462

---------------------------------------------------------------

3590. CONVERGENCE OF RANDOM MEASURES IN GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY

Mathew D. Penrose

Given $n$ independent random marked $d$-vectors $X_i$ with a common  
density,
define the measure $\nu_n = \sum_i \xi_i $, where $\xi_i$ is a  
measure (not
necessarily a point measure) determined by the (suitably rescaled)  
set of
points near $X_i$. Technically, this means here that $\xi_i$  
stabilizes with a
suitable power-law decay of the tail of the radius of stabilization. For
bounded test functions $f$ on $R^d$, we give a law of large numbers  
and central
limit theorem for $\nu_n(f)$. The latter implies weak convergence of
$\nu_n(\cdot)$, suitably scaled and centred, to a Gaussian field  
acting on
bounded test functions. The general result is illustrated with  
applications
including the volume and surface measure of germ-grain models with  
unbounded
grain sizes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508464

---------------------------------------------------------------

3591. A SIMPLE SOLUTION TO THE K-CORE PROBLEM

Svante Janson and  Malwina Luczak

We study the k-core of a random (multi)graph on n vertices with a given
degree sequence. We let n tend to infinity. Then, under some regularity
conditions on the degree sequences, we give conditions on the  
asymptotic shape
of the degree sequence that imply that with high probability the k- 
core is
empty, and other conditions that imply that with high probability the  
k-core is
non-empty and the sizes of its vertex and edge sets satisfy a law of  
large
numbers; under suitable assumptions these are the only two  
possibilities. In
particular, we recover the result by Pittel, Spencer and Wormald on the
existence and size of a k-core in G(n,p) and G(n,m).
   Our method is based on the properties of empirical distributions of
independent random variables, and leads to simple proofs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0508453

---------------------------------------------------------------

3592. CONCENTRATION OF HAAR MEASURES, WITH AN APPLICATION TO RANDOM  
MATRICES

Sourav Chatterjee

In this article, we present a general technique for analyzing the
concentration of Haar measures on compact groups using the properties of
certain kinds of random walks. As an application, we obtain a new  
kind of
measure concentration for random unitary matrices, which allows us to  
directly
establish the concentration of the empirical distribution of  
eigenvalues of a
class of random matrices. The end-result of this application is a  
quantitative
version of Voiculescu's celebrated connection between random matrices  
and free
probability.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508518

---------------------------------------------------------------

3593. A GENERALIZATION OF THE LINDEBERG PRINCIPLE

Sourav Chatterjee

We present a generalization of Lindeberg's method of proving the central
limit theorem to encompass general smooth functions (instead of just  
sums) and
dependent random variables. The technique is then used to obtain an  
invariance
result for smooth functions of exchangeable random variables. As an
illustrative application of this theorem, we then establish  
``convergence to
Wigner's law'' for eigenspectra of matrices with exchangeable random  
entries.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508519

---------------------------------------------------------------

3594. ON THE CASCADE ROLLBACK SYNCHRONIZATION

Anatoli Manita and Francois Simonot

We consider a cascade model of $N$ different processors performing a
distributed parallel simulation. The main goal of the study is to  
show that the
long-time dynamics of the system has a cluster behavior. To attack  
this problem
we combine two methods: stochastic comparison and Foster-Lyapunov  
functions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508533

---------------------------------------------------------------

3595. A BERNSTEIN-TYPE INEQUALITY FOR VECTOR FUNCTIONS ON FINITE  
MARKOV CHAINS

Vladislav Kargin

An analogue of the Bernstein inequality is derived for partial sums of a
vector-valued function on a finite reversible Markov chain. The  
inequality
gives an upper bound for the probability of a large deviation of the  
partial
sum. The bound depends on the chain's spectral gap, the dimension of  
the space
where the function takes values, and the upper bound on the size and the
variance of the function.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508538

---------------------------------------------------------------

3596. ON THE CONVERGENCE TO A STATISTICAL EQUILIBRIUM IN THE CRYSTAL  
COUPLED  TO A SCALAR FIELD

T.V. Dudnikova and  A.I. Komech

We consider the dynamics of a field coupled to a harmonic crystal  
with $n$
components in dimension $d$, $d,n\ge 1$. The crystal and the dynamics  
are
translation-invariant with respect to the subgroup $\Z^d$ of $\R^d$. The
initial data is a random function with a finite mean density of  
energy which
also satisfies a Rosenblatt- or Ibragimov-Linnik-type mixing condition.
Moreover, initial correlation functions are translation-invariant  
with respect
to the discrete subgroup $\Z^d$. We study the distribution $\mu_t$ of  
the
solution at time $t\in\R$. The main result is the convergence of $ 
\mu_t$ to a
Gaussian measure as $t\to\infty$, where $\mu_\infty$ is translation- 
invariant
with respect to the subgroup $\Z^d$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0508053

---------------------------------------------------------------

3597. CONNECTION BETWEEN DERIVING BRIDGES AND RADIAL PARTS FROM   
MULTIDIMENSIONAL ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESSES

Matyas Barczy and Gyula Pap

First we give a construction of bridges derived from a general Markov  
process
using only its transition densities. We give sufficient conditions  
for their
existence and uniqueness (in law). Then we prove that the law of the  
radial
part of the bridge with endpoints zero derived from a special  
multidimensional
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process equals the law of the bridge with  
endpoints zero
derived from the radial part of the same Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.  
We also
construct bridges derived from general multidimensional Ornstein- 
Uhlenbeck
processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508542

---------------------------------------------------------------

3598. VALLEYS AND THE MAXIMUM LOCAL TIME FOR RANDOM WALK IN RANDOM  
ENVIRONMENT

Amir Dembo and  Nina Gantert and  Yuval Peres and  Zhan Shi

Let $\xi(n, x)$ be the local time at $x$ for a recurrent one-dimensional
random walk in random environment after $n$ steps, and consider the  
maximum
$\xi^*(n) = \max_x \xi(n,x)$. It is known that $\limsup \xi^*(n)/n$ is a
positive constant a.s. We prove that $\liminf_n (\log\log\log n)\xi^* 
(n)/n$ is
a positive constant a.s.; this answers a question of P. R\'ev\'esz  
(1990). The
proof is based on an analysis of the {\em valleys /} in the environment,
defined as the potential wells of record depth. In particular, we  
show that
almost surely, at any time $n$ large enough, the random walker has  
spent almost
all of its lifetime in the two deepest valleys of the environment it has
encountered. We also prove a uniform exponential tail bound for the  
ratio of
the expected total occupation time of a valley and the expected local  
time at
its bottom.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508579

---------------------------------------------------------------

3599. RANDOM-TURN HEX AND OTHER SELECTION GAMES

Yuval Peres and  Oded Schramm and  Scott Sheffield and  David B. Wilson

The game of Hex has two players who take turns placing stones of  
their colors
on the hexagons of a rhombus-shaped hexagonal grid. Black wins by  
completing a
crossing between two opposite edges, while White wins by completing a  
crossing
between the other pair of opposite edges. Although ordinary Hex is  
famously
difficult to analyze, random-turn Hex--in which players toss a coin  
before each
turn to decide who gets to place the next stone--has a simple optimal  
strategy.
It belongs to a general class of random-turn games--called selection  
games--in
which the expected payoff when both players play the random-turn game  
optimally
is the same as when both players play randomly. We also describe the  
optimal
strategy and study the expected length of the game under optimal play  
for
random-turn Hex and several other selection games.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0508580

---------------------------------------------------------------

3600. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS TO INTEGRODIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WHICH  
INTERPOLATE  HEAT AND WAVE EQUATIONS

Piotr Rozmej and Anna Karczewska

In the paper we study some numerical solutions to Volterra equations  
which
interpolate heat and wave equations. We present a scheme for  
construction of
approximate numerical solutions for one and two spatial dimensions. Some
solutions to the stochastic version of such equations (for one spatial
dimension) are presented as well.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NA/0508564

---------------------------------------------------------------

3601. DISTRIBUTED ALGORITHMS IN AN ERGODIC MARKOVIAN ENVIRONMENT

Francis Comets (PMA) and  Francois Delarue (PMA) and  Rene Schott  
(IEC and  LORIA)

We provide a probabilistic analysis of the banker algorithm when  
transition
probabilities may depend on time and space. The transition probabilities
evolve, as time goes by, along the trajectory of an ergodic Markovian
environment, whereas the spatial parameter just acts on long runs.  
Our model
appears as a new (small) step towards more general time and space  
dependent
protocols. Our analysis relies on well-known results in stochastic
homogenization theory and investigates the asymptotic behaviour of  
the rescaled
algorithm as the total amount of resource available for allocation  
tends to the
infinity. In the two dimensional setting, we manage to exhibit three  
different
possible regimes for the deadlock time of the limit system.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507115

---------------------------------------------------------------

3602. ON MULTIDIMENSIONAL BRANCHING RANDOM WALKS IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

Francis Comets (PMA) and  Serguei Popov (IME)

We study branching random walks in random i.i.d. environment in $ 
\Z^d, d \geq
1$. For this model, the population size cannot decrease, and a natural
definition of recurrence is introduced. We prove a dichotomy for
recurrence/transience, depending only on the support of the  
environmental law.
We give sufficient conditions for recurrence and for transience. In the
recurrent case, we study the asymptotics of the tail of the  
distribution of the
hitting times and prove a shape theorem for the set of lattice sites  
which are
visited up to a large time.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507126

---------------------------------------------------------------

3603. COMPETITION BETWEEN GROWTHS GOVERNED BY BERNOULLI PERCOLATION

Olivier Garet (MAPMO) and  R\'{e}gine Marchand (IEC)

We study a competition model on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ where the two  
infections are
driven by supercritical Bernoulli percolations with distinct  
parameters $p$ and
$q$. We prove that, for any $q$, there exist at most countably many  
values of
$p<\min(q, \overrightarrow{p\_c})$ such that coexistence can occur.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507133

---------------------------------------------------------------

3604. POLYMER PINNING IN A RANDOM MEDIUM AS INFLUENCE PERCOLATION

Vincent Beffara (UMPA-ENSL) and  Vladas Sidoravicius (BR-IMPA) and   
Herbert  Spohn (D-MUTU-ZM), Eulalia Vares (BR-CBPF)

In this article we discuss a set of geometric ideas which shed some  
light on
the question of directed polymer pinning in the presence of bulk  
disorder.
Differing from standard methods and techniques, we transform the  
problem to a
particular dependent percolative system and relate the pinning  
transition to a
percolation transition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507142

---------------------------------------------------------------

3605. LINEAR STOCHATIC DIFFERENTIAL-ALGEBRAIC EQUATIONS WITH  
CONSTANT  COEFFICIENTS

Aureli Alabert and  Marco Ferrante

We consider linear stochastic differential-algebraic equations with  
constant
coefficients and additive white noise. Due to the nature of this  
class of
equations, the solution must be defined as a generalised process (in  
the sense
of Dawson and Fernique). We provide sufficient conditions for the law  
of the
variables of the solution process to be absolutely continuous with  
respect to
Lebesgue measure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507159

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3606. LIKELIHOOD INFERENCE FOR INCOMPLETELY OBSERVED STOCHASTIC  
PROCESSES:  IGNORABILITY CONDITIONS

Daniel Commenges and  Anne Gegout-Petit

We define a general coarsening model for stochastic processes. We  
decribe
incomplete data by means of sigma-fields and we give conditions of  
ignorability
for likelihood inference.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0507151

---------------------------------------------------------------

3607. DETERMINISTIC EQUIVALENTS FOR CERTAIN FUNCTIONALS OF LARGE  
RANDOM  MATRICES

W. Hachem and  P. Loubaton and  J. Najim

Consider a $N\times n$ random matrix $ Y_n$ where the entries are  
independent
but not identically distributed (matrices with a variance profile)  
Consider now
a deterministic $N\times n$ matrix $A_n$ whose columns and rows are  
uniformly
bounded for the Euclidean norm.
   Let $\Sigma_n=Y_n+A_n$. We prove in this article that there exists a
deterministic equivalent to the empirical Stieltjes transform of the
distribution of the eigenvalues of $\Sigma_n \Sigma_n^T$ which is  
itself the
Stieltjes transform of a probability measure.
   This work is motivated by the context of performance evaluation of  
Multiple
Inputs / Multiple Output (MIMO) wireless digital communication  
channels. As an
application, we derive a deterministic equivalent to the mutual  
information of
a wireless channel.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507172

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3608. A RENEWAL THEORY APPROACH TO PERIODIC COPOLYMERS WITH ADSORPTION

Francesco Caravenna and  Giambattista Giacomin and Lorenzo Zambotti

We consider a general model of an heterogeneous polymer chain  
fluctuating in
the proximity of an interface between two selective solvents. The  
heterogeneous
character of the model comes from the fact that monomer units  
interact with the
solvents and with the interface according to some charges that they  
carry. The
charges repeat themselves along the chain in a periodic fashion. The  
main
question on this model is whether the polymer remains tightly close  
to the
interface, a phenomenon called localization, or there is a marked  
preference
for one of the two solvents yielding thus a delocalization phenomenon.
   We propose an approach to this model, based on renewal theory,  
that yields
sharp estimates on the partition function of the model in all the  
regimes
(localized, delocalized and critical). This in turn allows to get a very
precise description of the polymer measure, both in a local sense
(thermodynamic limit) and in a global sense (scaling limits). A key  
point, but
also a byproduct, of our analysis is the closeness of the polymer  
measure to
suitable Markov Renewal Processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507178

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3609. LEVY PROCESSES: HITTING TIME, OVERSHOOT AND UNDERSHOOT II -  
ASYMPTOTIC  BEHAVIOUR

Bernard Roynette and  Pierre Vallois and  Agnes Volpi

Let (X_t, t>=0) be a Levy process started at 0, with Levy measure nu  
and T_x
the first hitting time of level x>0: T_x:=inf{t>=0; X_t>x}. Let $F 
(theta, mu,
rho,.) be the joint Laplace transform of (T_x, K_x, L_x): F 
(theta,mu,rho,x)
:=E(e^(-theta T_x - mu K_x \rho L_x) 1_(T_x<+infinity)), where  
theta>=0, mu>=0,
rho>=0, x>=0, K_x:=X_(T_x)-x and L_x:=x-X_(T_(x^-)). If we assume  
that nu has
finite exponential moments we exhibit an asymptotic expansion for
F(theta,mu,rho,x), as x -> +infinity. A limit theorem involving a  
normalization
of the triplet (T_x,K_x,L_x) as x -> +infinity, may be deduced. At  
last, if
nu_(|_R_+) has finite moment of fixed order, we prove that the ruin  
probability
P(T_x<+infinity) has at most a polynomial decay.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507193

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3610. COMPLETENESS WITH RESPECT TO THE PROBABILISTIC POMPEIU- 
HAUSDORFF METRIC

Stefan Cobza\c{s}

The aim of the present paper is to prove that the family of all closed
nonempty subsets of a complete probabilistic metric space $L$ is  
complete with
respect to the probabilistic Pompeiu-Hausdorff metric $H$. The same  
is true for
the families of all closed bounded, respectively compact, nonempty  
subsets of
$L$. If $L$ is a complete random normed space in the sense of \v{S} 
erstnev,
then the family of all nonempty closed convex subsets of $L$ is also  
complete
with respect to $H$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507207

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3611. PERCOLATION THEORY

Vincent Beffara (UMPA-ENSL) and  Vladas Sidoravicius (IMPA)

This is a survey article to be part of the Encyclopedia of Mathematical
Physics, to be published by Elsevier in the beginning of 2006.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507220

---------------------------------------------------------------

3612. THE RANDOM AVERAGE PROCESS AND RANDOM WALK IN A SPACE-TIME  
RANDOM  ENVIRONMENT IN ONE DIMENSION

Marton Balazs and  Firas Rassoul-Agha and Timo Seppalainen

We study space-time fluctuations around a characteristic line for a
one-dimensional interacting system known as the random average  
process. The
state of this system is a real-valued function on the integers. New  
values of
the function are created by averaging previous values with random  
weights. The
fluctuations analyzed occur on the scale n^{1/4} where n is the ratio of
macroscopic and microscopic scales in the system. The limits of the
fluctuations are described by a family of Gaussian processes. In  
cases of known
product-form equilibria, this limit is a two-parameter process whose  
time
marginals are fractional Brownian motions with Hurst parameter 1/4.  
Along the
way we study the limits of quenched mean processes for a random walk  
in a
space-time random environment. These limits also happen at scale n^ 
{1/4} and
are described by certain Gaussian processes that we identify. In  
particular,
when we look at a backward quenched mean process, the limit process  
is the
solution of a stochastic heat equation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507226

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3613. A NEW EFFICIENT ALGORITHM FOR CONSTRUCTION OF LLS MODELS

Mikhail Kovtun and  Igor Akushevich and  Kenneth G. Manton and  H.  
Dennis Tolley

We present a new efficient algortithm for construction of linear latent
structure (LLS) models. This algorithm reduces a problem of  
estimation of model
parameters to a sequence of problems of linear algebra, which assures  
a low
computational complexity and ability to handle on desktop computers  
data that
involve up to thousands of variables.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507021

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3614. BROWNIAN SHEET AND REFLECTIONLESS POTENTIALS

Setsuo Taniguchi

The bijectivity of the mapping, which is represented as expectation,  
from a
family of Gaussian measures parametrized by linear combinations of Dirac
measures to the space of classical reflectionless potentials is  
shown. It is
also shown that the bijectivity extends to the space of generalized
reflectionless potentials, which was used by V. Marchenko to study  
the Cauchy
problem for the KdV equation. In the extension, the stochastic  
calculus based
on the Brownian sheet plays a key role.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507229

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3615. ANALYTICITY OF ENTROPY RATE IN FAMILIES OF HIDDEN MARKOV CHAINS

Guangyue Han and  Brian Marcus

We prove that under a mild positivity assumption the entropy rate of  
a hidden
Markov chain varies analytically as a function of the underlying  
Markov chain
parameters. We give examples to show how this can fail in some cases.  
And we
study two natural special classes of hidden Markov chains in more  
detail:
binary hidden Markov chains with an unambiguous symbol and binary  
Markov chains
corrupted by binary symmetric noise. Finally, we show that under the  
positivity
assumption the hidden Markov chain {\em itself} varies analytically,  
in a
strong sense, as a function of the underlying Markov chain parameters.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507235

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3616. LIKELY PATH TO EXTINCTION FOR SIMPLE BRANCHING MODEL (LARGE  
DEVIATIONS  APPROACH)

F. Klebaner and  R. Liptser

We give an explicit formula for the most likely path to extinction  
for the
Galton-Watson processes with large initial population. We establish  
this result
with the help of the large deviation principle (LDP) which also  
recovers the
asymptotics of extinction probability.
   Due to the nonnegativity of the Galton-Watson processes, the proof  
of LDP
verification at the point of extinction uses a nonstandard argument of
independent interest.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507257

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3617. CRAMER'S THEOREM FOR NONNEGATIVE SUMMANDS

F. Klebaner and  R. Liptser

We clarify the boundary effect in Cramer's theorem on the Large  
Deviations
Principle (LDP) for normed sums of non-negative i.i.d. random  
variables $
S_n=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n\xi_i $. We show that the LDP holds true  
with the
rate function possibly infinite at the boundary point $x=0$.
   We also consider a continuous time version of Cramer's theorem with
nonnegative summands $ S_t=\frac{1}{t}\sum_{i:\tau_i\le t}\xi_i, t \to 
\infty, $
where $(\tau_i,\xi_i)_{i\ge 1}$ is a sequence of random variables  
such that
$tS_t$ is a random process with independent increments.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507258

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3618. STATIONARITY OF SWITCHING VAR AND OTHER RELATED MODELS

Gopal K. Basak and Zhan-Qian Lu

Switching ARMA models greatly enhance the standard linear models to the
extent that different ARMA model is allowed in a different regime,  
and the
regime switching is typically assumed a Markov chain on the finite  
states of
potential regimes. Although statistical issues have been the subject  
of many
recent papers, there is few systematic study of the probabilistic  
aspects of
this new class of nonlinear models. This paper discusses some basic  
issues
concerning this class of models including strict stationarity,  
influence of
initial conditions, and second-order property by studying SVAR  
models. A number
of examples are given to illustrate the theory and the variety of  
applications.
Extensions to other models such as mean-shifting, and inhomogeneous  
transition
probabilities are discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0507267

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3619. THE FERMAT CUBIC, ELLIPTIC FUNCTIONS, CONTINUED FRACTIONS, AND  
A  COMBINATORIAL EXCURSION

Eric van Fossen Conrad and Philippe Flajolet

Elliptic functions considered by Dixon in the nineteenth century and  
related
to Fermat's cubic, $x^3+y^3=1$, lead to a new set of continued fraction
expansions with sextic numerators and cubic denominators. The  
functions and the
fractions are pregnant with interesting combinatorics, including a  
special
P\'olya urn, a continuous-time branching process of the Yule type, as  
well as
permutations satisfying various constraints that involve either  
parity of
levels of elements or a repetitive pattern of order three. The  
combinatorial
models are related to but different from models of elliptic functions  
earlier
introduced by Viennot, Flajolet, Dumont, and Fran{\c{c}}on.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0507268

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3620. EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AS A RECORD BREAKING PROCESS

Joern Davidsen and  Peter Grassberger and Maya Paczuski

We extend the notion of waiting times for a point process to  
recurrent events
in space-time. Earthquake $B$ is a recurrence of a previous one, $A$,  
if no
intervening earthquake happens after $A$ and before $B$ in the  
spatial disc
centered on $A$ with radius $\bar{AB}$. The cascade of recurrent  
events, where
each later recurrence to an event is closer in space than all  
previous ones,
forms a sequence of records. Representing each record by a directed link
between nodes defines a network of earthquakes. For Southern  
California, this
network exhibits robust scaling laws. The rupture length emerges as a
fundamental scale for distance between recurrent events. Also, the  
distribution
of relative separations for the next record in space (time) $\sim
r^{-\delta_r}$ ($\sim t^{-\delta_t}$), with $\delta_r \approx  
\delta_t \approx
0.6$. While the in-degree distribution agrees with a random network, the
out-degree distribution shows large deviations from Poisson statistics.
Comparison with randomized data and a theory of records for  
independent events
occurring on a fractal shows that these statistics capture non- 
trivial features
of the complex spatiotemporal organization of seismicity.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/physics/0507082

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3621. LINEAR LATENT STRUCTURE ANALYSIS: MIXTURE DISTRIBUTION MODELS  
WITH  LINEAR CONSTRAINTS

Mikhail Kovtun and  Igor Akushevich and  Kenneth G. Manton and  H.  
Dennis Tolley

A new method for analyzing high-dimensional categorical data, Linear  
Latent
Structure (LLS) analysis, is presented. LLS models belong to the  
family of
latent structure models, which are mixture distribution models  
constrained to
satisfy the local independence assumption. LLS analysis explicitly  
considers a
family of mixed distributions as a linear space and LLS models are  
obtained by
imposing linear constraints on the mixing distribution. LLS models are
identifiable under modest conditions and are consistently estimable. A
remarkable feature of LLS analysis is the existence of a high- 
performance
numerical algorithm, which reduces parameter estimation to a sequence  
of linear
algebra problems. Preliminary simulation experiments with a prototype  
of the
algorithm demonstrated a good quality of restoration of model  
parameters.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507025

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3622. EULER INTEGRALS FOR COMMUTING SLES

Julien Dubedat

Schramm-Loewner Evolutions (SLEs) have proved an efficient way to  
describe a
single continuous random conformally invariant interface in a simply  
connected
planar domain; the admissible probability distributions are  
parameterized by a
single positive parameter $\kappa$. As shown in \cite{D6}, the  
coexistence of
$n$ interfaces in such a domain implies algebraic ("commutation")  
conditions.
In the most interesting situations, the admissible laws on systems of  
$n$
interfaces are parameterized by $\kappa$ and the solution of  
particular (finite
rank) holonomic systems. The study of solutions of differential  
systems, in
particular their global behaviour, often involves the use of integral
representations. In the present article, we provide Euler integral
representations for solutions of holonomic systems arising from SLE
commutation. Applications to critical percolation (general crossing  
formulae),
loop-erased random walks (direct derivation of Fomin's formulae in  
the scaling
limit), and uniform spanning trees are discussed. The connection with  
conformal
restriction and Poissonized non-intersection for chordal SLEs is also  
studied.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507276

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3623. BRYC'S RANDOM FIELDS: THE EXISTENCE AND DISTRIBUTIONS ANALYSIS

Wojciech Matysiak and  Pawe{\l} J. Szab{\l}owski

We examine problem of existence of stationary random fields with linear
regressions and quadratic conditional variances, introduced by Bryc in
"Stationary random fields with linear regressions" (Annals of  
Probability 29,
No. 1, 504-519). Distributions of the fields are identified and  
almost complete
description of the possible sets of parameters defining the first two
conditional moments is given. This note almost solves Bryc's problem  
concerning
fields undetermined by moments - the only remaining set of parameters  
for which
the existence of Bryc's fields is unclear has Lebesgue measure zero.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507296

---------------------------------------------------------------

3624. Q-WIENER AND RELATED PROCESSES. A BRYC PROCESSES CONTINUOUS  
TIME  GENERALIZATION

Pawe{\l} J. Szab{\l}owski

We define two Markov processes. The finite dimensional distributions  
of the
first one (say $\mathbf{X=}(X_{t})_{t\geq0})$ depend on one parameter
$q\in(-1,1>$ and of the second one (say $\mathbf{Y=}(Y_{t})_{t\in 
\mathbb{R}})$
on two parameters $(q,\alpha) \in(-1,1>\times(0,\infty).$ The first one
resembles Wiener process in the sense that for $q=1$ it is Wiener  
process but
also that for $q<1$ and $\forall n\geq1$ $t^{n/2}H_{n}(X_{t}/\sqrt{t}| 
q) ,$
where $(H_{n})_{n\geq0}$ are so called $q-$Hermite polynomials, are
martingales. It does not have however independent increments. The  
second one
resemble Orstein-Ulehnbeck processes. For $q=1$ it is a classical OU  
process.
For $q<1$ it is stationary with correlation function equal to $\exp
(-\alpha|t-s|).$When defining these processes and proving their  
existence we
use properties of discrete time Bryc processes and solve the problem  
of their
existence for $q>1.$ On the way we deny Wesolowski's martingale
characterization of Wiener process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507303

---------------------------------------------------------------

3625. THE MIXING TIME OF THE THORP SHUFFLE

Ben Morris

The Thorp shuffle is defined as follows. Cut the deck into two equal  
piles.
Drop the first card from the left pile or the right pile according to  
the
outcome of a fair coin flip; then drop from the other pile. Continue  
this way
until both piles are empty. We show that the mixing time for the  
Thorp shuffle
with $2^d$ cards is polynomial in $d$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507307

---------------------------------------------------------------

3626. TAIL BOUNDS FOR THE STABLE MARRIAGE OF POISSON AND LEBESGUE

Christopher Hoffman and  Alexander E. Holroyd and Yuval Peres

Let \Xi be a discrete set in R^d. Call the elements of \Xi centers. The
well-known Voronoi tessellation partitions R^d into polyhedral  
regions (of
varying volumes) by allocating each site of R^d to the closest  
center. Here we
study allocations of R^d to \Xi in which each center attempts to  
claim a region
of equal volume \alpha.
   We focus on the case where \Xi arises from a Poisson process of unit
intensity. It was proved in math.PR/0505668 that there is a unique  
allocation
which is stable in the sense of the Gale-Shapley marriage problem. We  
study the
distance X from a typical site to its allocated center in the stable
allocation.
   The model exhibits a phase transition in the appetite \alpha. In  
the critical
case \alpha=1 we prove a power law upper bound on X in dimension d=1.  
It is an
open problem to prove any upper bound in d\geq 2. (Power law lower  
bounds were
proved in math.PR/0505668 for all d). In the non-critical cases  
\alpha<1 and
\alpha>1 we prove exponential upper bounds on X.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507324

---------------------------------------------------------------

3627. NON-MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS WITH LINEAR REGRESSIONS - A TOEPLITZ  
OPERATORS  APPROACH

Wojciech Matysiak and  Pawe{\l} J. Szab{\l}owski

The aim of the paper is to analyze square integrable random sequences
$\mathbf{X}=(X_{k})_{k\in\mathbb{Z}}$ satisfying condition \[
\wwo{X_k}{...,X_{k-2},X_{k-1},X_{k+1},X_{k+2},...}=\sum_{j=1}^n b_j
(X_{k-j}+X_{k+j}) \] with $b_{j}\in\mathbb{R}$ and
$n\in\nat\cup\left\{+\infty\right\}$. The question of existence of such
sequences for all $n\in\mathbb{N}$ including $n=+\infty$ is examined  
and some
conditions guaranteeing existence are provided. In order to give these
conditions we analyze general problem of existence of processes  
defined by
regression coefficients. The problem is closely related to one  
considered by
Kingman and Williams.
   One of the results presented in the paper is that one sided  
regressions of
$\mathbf{X}$ are also linear: \[
\mathbb{E}(X_{k}|...,X_{k-2},X_{k-1})=\sum_{j=1}^{n}\beta_{j}X_{k -j} 
% \] for
some $\beta_{j}\in\mathbb{R}$ and with the same $n$ as before.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507332

---------------------------------------------------------------

3628. RECTANGULAR RANDOM MATRICES, RELATED CONVOLUTION

Florent Benaych-Georges (DMA)

We characterize asymptotic collective behaviour of rectangular random
matrices, the sizes of which tend to infinity at different rates:  
when embedded
in a space of larger square matrices, independent rectangular random  
matrices
are asymtotically free with amalgamation over a subalgebra. Therefore  
we can
define a "rectangular free convolution", linearized by cumulants and  
by an
analytic integral transform, called the "rectangular R-transform".


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507336

---------------------------------------------------------------

3629. LIMIT SHAPES OF MULTIPLICATIVE MEASURES ASSOCIATED WITH   
COAGULATION-FRAGMENTATION PROCESSES AND RANDOM COMBINATORIAL STRUCTURES

Michael Erlihson and Boris Granovsly

We find limit shapes for a family of multiplicative measures on the  
set of
partitions, induced by exponential generating functions with expansive
parameters, $a_k\sim k^{p-1}, k\to\infty, p>0$. The measures  
considered are
associated with reversible coagulation-fragmentation processes and  
certain
combinatorial structures. We prove the functional central limit  
theorem for the
fluctuations of a scaled random partition around its limit shape. We  
also
demonstrate that when the component size passes beyond the threshold  
value, the
independence of numbers of components transforms into their conditional
independence. Among other things, the paper discusses, in a general  
setting,
the interplay between limit shapes, threshold and gelation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507343

---------------------------------------------------------------

3630. CONDITIONAL ASSOCIATION AND SPIN SYSTEMS

Thomas M. Liggett

A 1977 theorem of T. Harris states that an attractive spin system  
preserves
the class of associated probability measures. We study analogues of  
this result
for measures that satisfy various conditional positive correlations  
properties.
In particular, we show that a spin system preserves measures  
satisfying the FKG
lattice condition (essentially) if and only if distinct spins flip
independently. The downward FKG property, which has been useful  
recently in the
study of the contact process, lies between the properties of lattice  
FKG and
association. We prove that this property is preserved by a spin  
system if the
death rates are constant and the birth rates are additive (e.g., the  
contact
process), and prove a partial converse to this statement. Finally, we  
introduce
a new property, which we call downward conditional association, which  
lies
between the FKG lattice condition and downward FKG, and find essentially
necessary and sufficient conditions for this property to be preserved  
by a spin
system. This suggests that the latter property may be more natural  
than the
downward FKG property.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507392

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3631. SOME RESULTS CONCERNING MAXIMUM RENYI ENTROPY DISTRIBUTIONS

Oliver Johnson and Christophe Vignat

We consider the Student-t and Student-r distributions, which maximise  
Renyi
entropy under a covariance condition. We show that they have
information-theoretic properties which mirror those of the Gaussian
distributions, which maximise Shannon entropy under the same  
condition. We
introduce a convolution which preserves the Renyi maximising family,  
and show
that the Renyi maximisers are the case of equality in a version of  
the Entropy
Power Inequality. Further, we show that the Renyi maximisers satisfy  
a version
of the heat equation, motivating the definition of a generalized Fisher
information.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507400

---------------------------------------------------------------

3632. RECURRENCE FOR PERSISTENT RANDOM WALKS IN TWO DIMENSIONS

Marco Lenci

We discuss the question of recurrence for persistent, or Newtonian,  
random
walks in Z^2, i.e., random walks whose transition probabilities  
depend both on
the walker's position and incoming direction. We use results by Toth and
Schmidt-Conze to prove recurrence for a large class of such processes,
including all "invertible" walks in elliptic random environments.  
Furthermore,
rewriting our Newtonian walks as ordinary random walks in a suitable  
graph, we
gain a better idea of the geometric features of the problem, and  
obtain further
examples of recurrence.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507411

---------------------------------------------------------------

3633. DONSKER THEOREMS FOR DIFFUSIONS: NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT  
CONDITIONS

Aad van der Vaart and Harry van Zanten

We consider the empirical process G_t of a one-dimensional diffusion  
with
finite speed measure, indexed by a collection of functions F. By the  
central
limit theorem for diffusions, the finite-dimensional distributions of  
G_t
converge weakly to those of a zero-mean Gaussian random process G. We  
prove
that the weak convergence G_t\Rightarrow G takes place in \ell^ 
{\infty}(F) if
and only if the limit G exists as a tight, Borel measurable map. The  
proof
relies on majorizing measure techniques for continuous martingales.
Applications include the weak convergence of the local time density  
estimator
and the empirical distribution function on the full state space.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507412

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3634. THE MULTIFRACTAL SPECTRUM OF BROWNIAN INTERSECTION LOCAL TIMES

Achim Klenke and Peter Morters

Let \ell be the projected intersection local time of two independent  
Brownian
paths in R^d for d=2,3. We determine the lower tail of the random  
variable
\ell(U), where U is the unit ball. The answer is given in terms of  
intersection
exponents, which are explicitly known in the case of planar Brownian  
motion. We
use this result to obtain the multifractal spectrum, or spectrum of thin
points, for the intersection local times.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507437

---------------------------------------------------------------

3635. VALIDITY OF THE EXPECTED EULER CHARACTERISTIC HEURISTIC

Jonathan Taylor and  Akimichi Takemura and Robert J. Adler

We study the accuracy of the expected Euler characteristic  
approximation to
the distribution of the maximum of a smooth, centered, unit variance  
Gaussian
process f. Using a point process representation of the error, valid for
arbitrary smooth processes, we show that the error is in general  
exponentially
smaller than any of the terms in the approximation. We also give a  
lower bound
on this exponential rate of decay in terms of the maximal variance of  
a family
of Gaussian processes f^x, derived from the original process f.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507442

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3636. LEVY PROCESSES: HITTING TIME, OVERSHOOT AND UNDERSHOOT - PART  
I:  FUNCTIONAL EQUATIONS

Bernard Roynette and  Pierre Vallois and  Agnes Volpi

Let (X_t, t >=0) be a Levy process started at 0, with Levy measure  
nu, and
T_x the first hitting time of level x>0: T_x := inf{t>=0; X_t>x}. Let
F(theta,mu,rho,.) be the joint Laplace transform of (T_x, K_x, L_x):
F(theta,mu,rho,x) := E (e^{-theta T_x - mu K_x - rho L_x} 1_{T_x< 
+infinity}),
where theta>=0, mu>=0, rho>=0, x>0, K_x := X_{T_x} - x and L_x := x -
X_{T_{x^-}}. If nu(R) < + \infinity and integral_1^{+\infty} e^{sy}  
nu (dy) <
+infinity for some s>0, then we prove that F(theta,mu,rho,.) is the  
unique
solution of an integral equation and has a subexponential decay at  
infinity
when theta>0 or theta=0 and E(X_1)<0. If nu is not necessarily a  
finite measure
but verifies integral_{-infinity}^{-1} e^{-sy} nu (dy) < +infinity  
for any s>0,
then the x-Laplace transform of F(theta,mu,rho,.) satisfies some kind of
integral equation. This allows us to prove that F(theta,mu,rho,.) is  
a solution
to a second integral equation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507034

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3637. CORNER PERCOLATION ON Z^2 AND THE SQUARE ROOT OF 17

Gabor Pete

We consider a dependent bond percolation model on Z^2, introduced by  
Balint
Toth, in which every edge is present with probability 1/2, and each  
vertex has
exactly two incident edges, perpendicular to each other. We prove  
that all
components are finite cycles almost surely, but the expected diameter  
of the
cycle containing the origin is infinite. A more detailed analysis  
leads to the
derivation of the following critical exponents: the tail probability
\Pr(diameter of the cycle of the origin > n) \approx n^{-\gamma}, and  
the
expectation \E(length of a cycle conditioned on having diameter n)  
\approx
n^\delta. We show that \gamma=(5-\sqrt{17})/4=0.219... and
\delta=(\sqrt{17}+1)/4=1.28... The relation \gamma+\delta=3/2  
corresponds to
the fact that the scaling limit of the natural height function in the  
model is
the Additive Brownian Motion, whose level sets have Hausdorff  
dimension 3/2.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507457

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3638. BARYCENTERS OF MEASURES TRANSPORTED BY STOCHASTIC FLOWS

Marc Arnaudon and Xue-Mei Li

We investigate the evolution of barycenters of masses transported by
stochastic flows. The state spaces under consideration are smooth affine
manifolds with certain convexity structure. Under suitable conditions  
on the
flow and on the initial measure, the barycenter {Z_t} is shown to be a
semimartingale and is described by a stochastic differential  
equation. For the
hyperbolic space the barycenter of two independent Brownian particles  
is a
martingale and its conditional law converges to that of a Brownian  
motion on
the limiting geodesic. On the other hand for a large family of discrete
measures on suitable Cartan-Hadamard manifolds, the barycenter of the  
measure
carried by an unstable Brownian flow converges to the Busemann  
barycenter of
the limiting measure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507460

---------------------------------------------------------------

3639. STOCHASTIC EQUIVARIANT COHOMOLOGIES AND CYCLIC COHOMOLOGY

Remi Leandre

We give two stochastic diffeologies on the free loop space which  
allow us to
define stochastic equivariant cohomology theories in the Chen-Souriau  
sense and
to establish a link with cyclic cohomology. With the second one, we can
establish a stochastic fixed point theorem.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507461

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3640. SOME RESULTS ON TWO-SIDED LIL BEHAVIOR

Uwe Einmahl and Deli Li

Let {X,X_n;n\geq 1} be a sequence of i.i.d. mean-zero random  
variables, and
let S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i,n\geq 1. We establish necessary and sufficient
conditions for having with probability 1, 0<lim sup_{n\to
\infty}|S_n|/\sqrtnh(n)<\infty, where h is from a suitable subclass  
of the
positive, nondecreasing slowly varying functions. Specializing our  
result to
h(n)=(\log \log n)^p, where p>1 and to h(n)=(\log n)^r, r>0, we obtain
analogues of the Hartman-Wintner LIL in the infinite variance case.  
Our proof
is based on a general result dealing with LIL behavior of the  
normalized sums
{S_n/c_n;n\ge 1}, where c_n is a sufficiently regular normalizing  
sequence.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507462

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3641. RANDOM WALK ATTRACTED BY PERCOLATION CLUSTERS

Serguei Popov and  Marina Vachkovskaia

Starting with a percolation model in $\Z^d$ in the subcritical  
regime, we
consider a random walk described as follows: the probability of  
transition from
$x$ to $y$ is proportional to some function $f$ of the size of the  
cluster of
$y$. This function is supposed to be increasing, so that the random  
walk is
attracted by bigger clusters. For $f(t)=e^{\beta t}$ we prove that  
there is a
phase transition in $\beta$, i.e., the random walk is subdiffusive  
for large
$\beta$ and is diffusive for small $\beta$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507054

---------------------------------------------------------------

3642. LIMIT THEOREMS FOR THE TYPICAL POISSON-VORONOI CELL AND THE  
CROFTON CELL  WITH A LARGE INRADIUS

Pierre Calka and Tomasz Schreiber

In this paper, we are interested in the behavior of the typical
Poisson-Voronoi cell in the plane when the radius of the largest disk  
centered
at the nucleus and contained in the cell goes to infinity. We prove a  
law of
large numbers for its number of vertices and the area of the cell  
outside the
disk. Moreover, for the latter, we establish a central limit theorem  
as well as
moderate deviation type results. The proofs deeply rely on precise  
connections
between Poisson-Voronoi tessellations, convex hulls of Poisson  
samples and
germ-grain models in the unit ball. Besides, we derive analogous  
facts for the
Crofton cell of a stationary Poisson line process in the plane.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507463

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3643. STATISTICAL DUALITY OF THE LAPLACE DISTRIBUTION

E.A. Barkova and  S.I. Bityukov and  V.A. Taperechkina

The statistical duality of distributions is a powerful tool for  
statistical
inferences. In the paper the statistical duality of Laplace  
distribution is
discussed. As shown the confidence density of the parameter of this
distribution is uniquely determined.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0507452

---------------------------------------------------------------

3644. ESTIMATES FOR MOMENTS OF RANDOM MATRICES WITH GAUSSIAN ELEMENTS

O. Khorunzhiy

We describe an elementary method to get non-asymptotic estimates for the
moments of hermitian random matrices whose elements are gaussian  
independent
random variables. As the basic example, we consider the GUE matrices.  
Immediate
applications include GOE and gaussian skew-symmetric hermitian matrices.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0507060

---------------------------------------------------------------

3645. DISTANCES BETWEEN THE WINNING NUMBERS IN LOTTERY

Konstantinos Drakakis

We prove an interesting fact about Lottery: the winning 6 numbers  
(out of 49)
in the game of the Lottery contain two consecutive numbers with a  
surprisingly
high probability (almost 50%).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0507469

---------------------------------------------------------------

3646. A GENERAL LOWER BOUND FOR MIXING OF SINGLE-SITE DYNAMICS ON GRAPHS

Thomas P. Hayes and Alistair Sinclair

We prove that any Markov chain that performs local, reversible  
updates on
randomly chosen vertices of a bounded-degree graph necessarily has  
mixing time
at least $\Omega(n\log n)$, where $n$ is the number of vertices. Our  
bound
applies to the so-called ``Glauber dynamics'' that has been used  
extensively in
algorithms for the Ising model, independent sets, graph colorings and  
other
structures in computer science and statistical physics, and  
demonstrates that
many of these algorithms are optimal up to constant factors within  
their class.
Previously no super-linear lower bound for this class of algorithms  
was known.
Though widely conjectured, such a bound had been proved previously  
only in very
restricted circumstances, such as for the empty graph and the path.  
We also
show that the assumption of bounded degree is necessary by giving a  
family of
dynamics on graphs of unbounded degree with mixing time $O(n)$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0507517




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