[Pas] Probability Abstracts 93

pas at www2.economia.unimi.it pas at www2.economia.unimi.it
Tue Aug 1 10:02:33 CEST 2006


Aug 1st, 2006
Letter 93

Probability Abstract Service

Abstracts from May-1-2006 to Jul-31-2006
html version here:  http://www2.economia.unimi.it/PAS/Letters/ 
letter_93.shtml
---------------------------------------------------------------
Note: this PAS letter cover three months instead of only two.
This was due to a PAS server update during July 2006 which
cause delay. Next PAS letter will have the same bimonthly
posting.

---------------------------------------------------------------

4255. ESTIMATION IN SPIN GLASSES: A FIRST STEP

Sourav Chatterjee

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model of spin glasses, the Hopfield model of
neural networks, and the Ising spin glass are all models of binary data
belonging to the one-parameter exponential family with quadratic  
sufficient
statistic. Under bare minimal conditions, we establish the  
consistency of the
maximum pseudolikelihood estimate of the natural parameter in this  
family, even
at critical temperatures. Since very little is known about the low  
and critical
temperature regimes of these extremely difficult models, the proof  
requires
several new ideas. The author's version of Stein's method is a  
particularly
useful tool. One goal of this paper is to introduce these techniques  
into the
realm of mathematical statistics through an example.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0604634

---------------------------------------------------------------

4256. A DELAYED BLACK AND SCHOLES FORMULA I

Mercedes Arriojas and  Yaozhong Hu and  Salah-Eldin Mohammed and   
Gyula Pap

In this article we develop an explicit formula for pricing European  
options
when the underlying stock price follows a non-linear stochastic  
differential
delay equation (sdde). We believe that the proposed model is  
sufficiently
flexible to fit real market data, and is yet simple enough to allow  
for a
closed-form representation of the option price. Furthermore, the model
maintains the no-arbitrage property and the completeness of the  
market. The
derivation of the option-pricing formula is based on an equivalent  
martingale
measure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0604640

---------------------------------------------------------------

4257. A DELAYED BLACK AND SCHOLES FORMULA II

Mercedes Arriojas and  Yaozhong Hu and  Salah-Eldin Mohammed and   
Gyula Pap

This article is a sequel to [A.H.M.P]. In [A.H.M.P], we develop an  
explicit
formula for pricing European options when the underlying stock price  
follows a
non-linear stochastic delay equation with fixed delays in the drift and
diffusion terms. In this article, we look at models of the stock price
described by stochastic functional differential equations with  
variable delays.
We present a class of examples of stock dynamics with variable delays  
that
permit an explicit form for the option pricing formula. As in  
[A.H.M.P], the
market is complete with no arbitrage. This is achieved through the  
existence of
an equivalent martingale measure. In subsequent work, the authors  
intend to
test the models in [A.H.M.P] and the present article against real  
market data.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0604641

---------------------------------------------------------------

4258. THE HECKMAN-OPDAM MARKOV PROCESSES

Bruno Schapira (MAPMO and  PMA)

We introduce and study the natural counterpart of the Dunkl Markov  
processes
in a negatively curved setting. We give a semimartingale  
decomposition of the
radial part, and some properties of the jumps. We prove also a law of  
large
numbers, a central limit theorem, and the convergence of the  
normalized process
to the Dunkl process. Eventually we describe the asymptotic behavior  
of the
infinite loop as it was done by Anker, Bougerol and Jeulin in the  
symmetric
spaces setting in \cite{ABJ}.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605020

---------------------------------------------------------------

4259. TWO-DIMENSIONAL CRITICAL PERCOLATION: THE FULL SCALING LIMIT

Federico Camia and  Charles M. Newman

We use SLE(6) paths to construct a process of continuum nonsimple  
loops in
the plane and prove that this process coincides with the full  
continuum scaling
limit of 2D critical site percolation on the triangular lattice --  
that is, the
scaling limit of the set of all interfaces between different  
clusters. Some
properties of the loop process, including conformal invariance, are also
proved.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605035

---------------------------------------------------------------

4260. GENERALIZATION OF THE BOREL-CANTELLI LEMMA

Alexei Stepanov

In the present note a generalization of Borel-Cantelli Lemma is  
proposed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0605007

---------------------------------------------------------------

4261. TUG-OF-WAR AND THE INFINITY LAPLACIAN

Yuval Peres and  Oded Schramm and  Scott Sheffield and  David Wilson

We prove that every bounded Lipschitz function F on a subset Y of a  
length
space X admits a tautest extension to X, i.e., a unique Lipschitz  
extension u
for which Lip_U u = Lip_{boundary of U} u for all open subsets U of X  
that do
not intersect Y.
   This was previously known only for bounded domains R^n, in which  
case u is
infinity harmonic, that is, a viscosity solution to Delta_infty u =  
0. We also
prove the first general uniqueness results for Delta_infty u = g on  
bounded
subsets of R^n (when g is uniformly continuous and bounded away from  
zero), and
analogous results for bounded length spaces.
   The proofs rely on a new game-theoretic description of u. Let  
u^epsilon(x) be
the value of the following two-player zero-sum game, called tug-of- 
war: fix
x_0=x \in X minus Y. At the kth turn, the players toss a coin and the  
winner
chooses an x_k with d(x_k, x_{k-1})< \epsilon. The game ends when x_k  
is in Y,
and player one's payoff is
   F(x_k) - (epsilon^2/2) sum_{i=0}^{k-1} g(x_i)
   We show that the u^\epsilon converge uniformly to u as epsilon  
tends to zero.
Even for bounded domains in R^n, the game theoretic description of
infinity-harmonic functions yields new intuition and estimates; for  
instance,
we prove power law bounds for infinity-harmonic functions in the unit  
disk with
boundary values supported in a delta-neighborhood of a Cantor set on  
the unit
circle.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0605002

---------------------------------------------------------------

4262. OPERATORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOFT AND HARD SPECTRAL EDGES OF  
UNITARY  ENSEMBLES

Gordon Blower

Using Hankel operators and shift-invariant subspaces on Hilbert  
space, this
paper develops the theory of the operators associated with soft and  
hard edges
of eigenvalue distributions of random matrices. Tracy and Widom  
introduced a
projection operator $W$ to describe the soft edge of the spectrum of the
Gaussian unitary ensemble. The subspace $WL^2$ is simply invariant  
under the
translation semigroup $e^{itD}$ $(t\geq 0)$ and invariant under the
Schr\"odinger semigroup $e^{it(D^2+x)}$ $(t\geq 0)$; these properties
characterize $WL^2$ via Beurling's theorem. The Jacobi ensemble of  
random
matrices has positive eigenvalues which tend to accumulate near to  
the hard
edge at zero. This paper identifies a pair of unitary groups that  
satisfy the
von Neumann--Weyl anti-commutation relations and leave invariant certain
subspaces of $L^2(0,\infty)$ which are invariant for operators with  
Jacobi
kernels. Such Tracy--Widom operators are reproducing kernels for  
weighted Hardy
spaces, known as Sonine spaces. Periodic solutions of Hill's equation  
give a
new family of Tracy--Widom type operators.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.FA/0605010

---------------------------------------------------------------

4263. A CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR CONVEX SETS

B. Klartag

We show that there exists a sequence $\eps_n \searrow 0$ for which the
following holds: Let $K \subset \RR^n$ be a compact, convex set with a
non-empty interior. Let $X$ be a random vector that is distributed  
uniformly in
$K$. Then there exists a unit vector $\theta$ in $\RR^n$, $t_0 \in \RR 
$ and
$\sigma > 0$ such that \begin{equation}
   \sup_{A \subset \RR} | Prob \{< X, \theta > \in A \} - \frac{1} 
{\sqrt{2 \pi
\sigma}} \int_A e^{-\frac{(t - t_0)^2}{2 \sigma^2}} dt | \leq \eps_n,
\end{equation} where the supremum runs over all measurable sets $A  
\subset
\RR$, and where $<\cdot, \cdot >$ denotes the usual scalar product in  
$\RR^n$.
Moreover, under the additional assumptions that the expectation of $X 
$ is zero
and that the covariance matrix of $X$ is the identity matrix, we  
argue that
most unit vectors $\theta$ satisfy ($\dagger$), with $t_0 = 0$ and $ 
\sigma =
1$. Thus, typical one-dimensional marginal distributions of high- 
dimensional,
isotropic, convex sets are approximately gaussian. This proves a basic
conjecture in asymptotic convex geometry, that was put forward by  
Anttila, Ball
and Perissinaki and by Brehm and Voigt. We also discuss normal  
approximation
for multi-dimensional marginal distributions of uniform measures on  
convex
sets.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.MG/0605014

---------------------------------------------------------------

4264. PRICING WITH COHERENT RISK

Alexander S. Cherny

This paper deals with applications of coherent risk measures to  
pricing in
incomplete markets. Namely, we study the No Good Deals pricing  
technique based
on coherent risk. Two forms of this technique are presented: one  
defines a good
deal as a trade with negative risk; the other one defines a good deal  
as a
trade with unusually high RAROC. For each technique, the fundamental  
theorem of
asset pricing and the form of the fair price interval are presented.  
The model
considered includes static as well as dynamic models, models with an  
infinite
number of assets, models with transaction costs, and models with  
portfolio
constraints. In particular, we prove that in a model with proportional
transaction costs the fair price interval converges to the fair price  
interval
in a frictionless model as the coefficient of transaction costs tends  
to zero.
Moreover, we study some problems in the ``pure'' theory of risk  
measures: we
present a simple geometric solution of the capital allocation problem  
and apply
it to define the coherent risk contribution. The mathematical tools  
employed
are probability theory, functional analysis, and finite-dimensional  
convex
analysis.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605049

---------------------------------------------------------------

4265. ON THE RANGE OF THE SIMPLE RANDOM WALK BRIDGE ON GROUPS

Itai Benjamini and  Roey Izkovsky and  Harry Kesten

Let G be a vertex transitive graph. A study of the range of simple  
random
walk on G and of its bridge is proposed. While it is expected that on  
a graph
of polynomial growth the sizes of the range of the unrestricted  
random walk and
of its bridge are the same in first order, this is not the case on  
some larger
graphs such as regular trees. Of particular interest is the case when  
G is the
Cayley graph of a group. In this case we even study the range of a  
general
symmetric (not necessarily simple) random walk on G. We hope that the  
few
examples for which we calculate the first order behavior of the range  
here will
help to discover some relation between the group structure and the  
behavior of
the range. Further problems regarding bridges are presented.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605050

---------------------------------------------------------------

4266. EQUILIBRIUM WITH COHERENT RISK

Alexander S. Cherny

This paper is the continuation of "Pricing with coherent risk" and  
deals with
further applications of coherent risk measures to problems of  
finance. First,
we study the optimization problem. Three forms of this problem are  
considered.
Furthermore, the results obtained are applied to the optimality  
pricing. Again
three forms of this technique are considered. Finally, we study the  
equilibrium
problem both in the unconstrained and in the constrained forms. We  
establish
the equivalence between the global and the competitive optima and  
give a dual
description of the equilibrium. Moreover, we provide an explicit  
geometric
solution of the constrained equilibrium problem. Most of the results are
presented on two levels: on a general level the results have a  
probabilistic
form; for a static model with a finite number of assets, the results  
have a
geometric form.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605051

---------------------------------------------------------------

4267. LARGE DEVIATIONS AND A KRAMERS' TYPE LAW FOR SELF-STABILIZING  
DIFFUSIONS

Samuel Herrmann and  Peter Imkeller and Dierk Peithmann

We investigate exit times from domains of attraction for the motion of a
self-stabilized particle travelling in a geometric (potential type)  
landscape
and perturbed by Brownian noise of small amplitude. Self- 
stabilization is
mediated by an ensemble-average attraction adding on to the individual
potential drift, where the particle is supposed to be suspended in a  
large
population of identical ones. A Kramers' type law for the particle's  
exit from
the potential's domains of attraction and a large deviations  
principle for the
self-stabilizing diffusion are proved. It turns out that the exit law  
for the
self-stabilizing diffusion coincides with the exit law of a potential  
diffusion
without self-stabilization with a drift component perturbed by average
attraction. We show that self-stabilization may substantially delay  
the exit
from domains of attraction, and that the exit location may be completely
different.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605053

---------------------------------------------------------------

4268. OPTIMAL STOPPING OF HUNT AND L\'EVY PROCESSES

Ernesto Mordecki and Paavo Salminen

The optimal stopping problem for a Hunt processes on $\R$ is  
considered via
the representation theory of excessive functions. In particular, we  
focus on
infinite horizon (or perpetual) problems with one-sided structure,  
that is,
there exists a point $x^*$ such that the stopping region is of the form
$[x^*,+\infty)$. Corresponding results for two-sided problems are also
indicated. The main result is a spectral representation of the value  
function
in terms of the Green kernel of the process. Specializing in L\'evy  
processes,
we obtain, by applying the Wiener-Hopf factorization, a general  
representation
of the value function in terms of the maximum of the L\'evy process. To
illustrate the results, an explicit expression for the Green kernel  
of Brownian
motion with exponential jumps is computed and some optimal stopping  
problems
for Poisson process with positive exponential jumps and negative  
drift are
solved.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605054

---------------------------------------------------------------

4269. SUR LE NOMBRE DE POINTS VISIT\'{E}S PAR UNE MARCHE AL\'{E} 
ATOIRE SUR UN  AMAS INFINI DE PERCOLATION

Clement Rau (LATP)

In this article, we consider random walk on the infinite cluster of bond
percolation on $\Z^d (d \geq 2)$. We show that the Laplace  
transformation of
the number of visited points $N\_n$, has a behaviour as the random  
walk was on
$\Z^d$. More precisely, for all $0<\alpha<1$, we proved that there exist
constants $C\_i$ and $C\_s$ such that for all infinite cluster that  
contains
the origin, we have: $$ e^{-C\_i n^{\frac{d}{d+2}}} \leq \E\_0^{\omega}
(\alpha^{N\_n}) \leq e^{-C\_sn^{\frac{d}{d+2}}}.$$ Our approach is  
based on
finding an isoperimetric inequalities on the infinite cluster, lifted  
on a
wreath product which give good behaviour. The problem of the  
isoperimetry on
wreath product was already raised by A.Ershler.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605056

---------------------------------------------------------------

4270. COHERENT MEASUREMENT OF FACTOR RISKS

Alexander S. Cherny and  Dilip B. Madan

We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large  
portfolios. It
employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk  
measures
introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures
introduced in this paper, which assess the risks driven by particular  
factors
like the price of oil, S&P500 index, or the credit spread; - risk  
contributions
and factor risk contributions, which provide a coherent alternative  
to the
sensitivity coefficients.
   We also propose two particular classes of coherent risk measures  
called Alpha
V at R and Beta V at R, for which all the objects described above admit an  
extremely
simple empirical estimation procedure. This procedure uses no model  
assumptions
on the structure of the price evolution.
   Moreover, we consider the problem of the risk management on a  
firm's level.
It is shown that if the risk limits are imposed on the risk  
contributions of
the desks to the overall risk of the firm (rather than on their  
outstanding
risks) and the desks are allowed to trade these limits within a firm,  
then the
desks automatically find the globally optimal portfolio.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605062

---------------------------------------------------------------

4271. PRICING AND HEDGING IN INCOMPLETE MARKETS WITH COHERENT RISK

Alexander S. Cherny and  Dilip B. Madan

We propose a pricing technique based on coherent risk measures, which  
enables
one to get finer price intervals than in the No Good Deals pricing.  
The main
idea consists in splitting a liability into several parts and selling  
these
parts to different agents. The technique is closely connected with the
convolution of coherent risk measures and equilibrium considerations.
   Furthermore, we propose a way to apply the above technique to the  
coherent
estimation of the Greeks.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605064

---------------------------------------------------------------

4272. CAPM, REWARDS, AND EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING WITH COHERENT RISK

Alexander S. Cherny and  Dilip B. Madan

The paper has 2 main goals: 1. We propose a variant of the CAPM based on
coherent risk. 2. In addition to the real-world measure and the risk- 
neutral
measure, we propose the third one: the extreme measure. The  
introduction of
this measure provides a powerful tool for investigating the relation  
between
the first two measures. In particular, this gives us - a new way of  
measuring
reward; - a new approach to the empirical asset pricing.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605065

---------------------------------------------------------------

4273. ITO MAPS AND ANALYSIS ON PATH SPACES

K. D. Elworthy and Xue-Mei Li

We consider versions of Malliavin calculus on path spaces of compact
manifolds with diffusion measures, defining Gross-Sobolev spaces of
differentiable functions and proving their intertwining with solution  
maps, I,
of certain stochastic differential equations. This is shown to shed  
light on
fundamental uniqueness questions for this calculus including  
uniqueness of the
closed derivative operator $d$ and Markov uniqueness of the associated
Dirichlet form. A continuity result for the divergence operator by  
Kree and
Kree is extended to this situation. The regularity of conditional  
expectations
of smooth functionals of classical Wiener space, given I, is  
considered and
shown to have strong implications for these questions. A major role  
is played
by the (possibly sub-Riemannian) connections induced by stochastic  
differential
equations: Damped Markovian connections are used for the covariant  
derivatives.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605089

---------------------------------------------------------------

4274. COMPRESSING REDUNDANT INFORMATION IN MARKOV CHAINS

Giacomo Aletti

Given a strongly stationary Markov chain and a finite set of stopping  
rules,
we prove the existence of a polynomial algorithm which projects the  
Markov
chain onto a minimal Markov chain without redundant information. Markov
complexity is hence defined and tested on some classical problems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605099

---------------------------------------------------------------

4275. EXPECTED NUMBER OF LOCAL MAXIMA OF SOME GAUSSIAN RANDOM  
POLYNOMIALS

S. Shemehsavar and  S. Rezakhah

Let $Q_n(x)=\sum_{i=0}^{n} A_{i}x^{i}$ be a random algebraic  
polynomial where
the coefficients $A_0,A_1,... $ form a sequence of centered Gaussian  
random
variables. Moreover, assume that the increments $\Delta_j=A_j-A_{j-1}$,
$j=0,1,2,...$ are independent, $A_{-1}=0$. The coefficients can be  
considered
as $n$ consecutive observations of a Brownian motion. We study the  
asymptotic
behaviour of the expected number of local maxima of $Q_n(x)$ below level
$u=O(n^k)$, for some $k>0$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605116

---------------------------------------------------------------

4276. ANCHORED CRITICAL PERCOLATION CLUSTERS AND 2-D ELECTROSTATICS

P. Kleban and  J. J. H. Simmons and  and R. M. Ziff

We consider the densities of clusters, at the percolation point of a
two-dimensional system, which are anchored in various ways to an  
edge. These
quantities are calculated by use of conformal field theory and computer
simulations. We find that they are given by simple functions of the  
potentials
of 2-D electrostatic dipoles, and that a kind of superposition {\it cum}
factorization applies. Our results broaden this connection, already  
known from
previous studies, and we present evidence that it is more generally  
valid. An
exact result similar to the Kirkwood superposition approximation  
emerges.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0605120

---------------------------------------------------------------

4277. THE CONFIGURATIONAL MEASURE ON MUTUALLY AVOIDING SLE PATHS

Michael J. Kozdron (University of Regina) and  Gregory F. Lawler  
(Cornell  University)

We define multiple chordal SLEs in a simply connected domain by  
considering a
natural configurational measure on paths. We show how to construct these
measures so that they are conformally covariant and satisfy certain  
boundary
perturbation and Markov properties, as well as a cascade relation. As an
example of our construction, we derive the scaling limit of Fomin's  
identity in
the case of two paths directly; that is, we prove that the  
probability that an
SLE(2) and a Brownian excursion do not intersect can be given in  
terms of the
determinant of the excursion hitting matrix. Finally, we define the  
lambda-SAW,
a one-parameter family of measures on self-avoiding walks on Z^2.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605159

---------------------------------------------------------------

4278. LOOP-FREE MARKOV CHAINS AS DETERMINANTAL POINT PROCESSES

Alexei Borodin

We show that any loop-free Markov chain on a discrete space can be  
viewed as
a determinantal point process. As an application we prove central limit
theorems for the number of particles in a window for renewal  
processes and
Markov renewal processes with Bernoulli noise.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605168

---------------------------------------------------------------

4279. BEHAVIOR OF A SECOND CLASS PARTICLE IN HAMMERSLEY'S PROCESS

Eric Cator and Sergei Dobrynin

In the case of a rarefaction fan in a non-stationary Hammersley  
process, we
explicitly calculate the asymptotic behavior of the process as we  
move out
along a ray, and the asymptotic distribution of the angle within the
rarefaction fan of a second class particle and a dual second class  
particle.
Furthermore, we consider a stationary Hammersley process and use the  
previous
results to show that trajectories of a second class particle and a  
dual second
class particles touch with probability one, and we give some  
information on the
area enclosed by the two trajectories, up until the first  
intersection point.
This is linked to the area of influence of an added Poisson point in  
the plane.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605199

---------------------------------------------------------------

4280. RANDOM MATRIX CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR NON-INTERSECTING  
RANDOM WALKS

Jinho Baik and Toufic Suidan

We consider non-intersecting random walks satisfying the condition  
that the
increments have a finite moment generating function. We prove that in  
a certain
limiting regime where the number of walks and the number of time  
steps grow to
infinity, several limiting distributions of the walks at the mid-time  
behave as
the eigenvalues of random Hermitian matrices as the dimension of the  
matrices
grows to infinity.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605212

---------------------------------------------------------------

4281. ON THE BEHAVIOR OF RANDOM WALK AROUND HEAVY POINTS

Endre Cs\'aki and  Ant\'onia F\"oldes and  P\'al R\'ev\'esz

Consider a symmetric aperiodic random walk in $Z^d$, $d\geq 3$. There  
are
points (called heavy points) where the number of visits by the random  
walk is
close to its maximum. We investigate the local times around these  
heavy points
and show that they converge to a deterministic limit as the number of  
steps
tends to infinity.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605221

---------------------------------------------------------------

4282. $T^{1/3}$ SUPERDIFFUSIVITY OF FINITE-RANGE ASYMMETRIC  
EXCLUSION  PROCESSES ON $\MATHBB Z$

Jeremy Quastel and  Benedek Valko

We consider finite-range asymmetric exclusion processes on $\mathbb Z 
$ with
non-zero drift. The diffusivity $D(t)$ is expected to be of $O(t^ 
{1/3})$. We
prove that $D(t)\ge Ct^{1/3}$ in the weak (Tauberian) sense that $ 
\int_0^\infty
e^{-\lambda t}tD(t)dt \ge C\lambda^{-7/3}$ as $\lambda\to 0$. The  
proof employs
the resolvent method to make a direct comparison with the totally  
asymmetric
simple exclusion process, for which the result is a consequence of  
the scaling
limit for the two-point function recently obtained by Ferrari and  
Spohn. When
$p(z)\ge p(-z)$ for each $z>0$, we show further that $tD(t)$ is  
monotone, and
hence we can conclude that $D(t)\ge Ct^{1/3}(\log t)^{-7/3}$ in the  
usual
sense.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605266

---------------------------------------------------------------

4283. THE MULTIPARAMETER FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION

Erick Herbin and Ely Merzbach

We define and study the multiparameter fractional Brownian motion. This
process is a generalization of both the classical fractional Brownian  
motion
and the multiparameter Brownian motion, when the condition of  
independence is
relaxed. Relations with the L\'evy fractional Brownian motion and  
with the
fractional Brownian sheet are discussed. Different notions of  
stationarity of
the increments for a multiparameter process are studied and applied  
to the
fractional property. Using self-similarity we present a  
characterization for
such processes. Finally, behavior of the multiparameter fractional  
Brownian
motion along increasing paths is analysed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605279

---------------------------------------------------------------

4284. MULTISERVER QUEUEING SYSTEMS WITH RETRIALS AND ABANDONMENTS AND  
THEIR  APPLICATION TO CALL CENTERS

Vyacheslav M. Abramov

The paper studies multiserver retrial queueing systems with $m$ servers.
Arrival process is a quite general point process. An arriving  
customer occupies
one of free servers. If upon arrival all servers are busy, then the  
customer
waits for his service in orbit, and after random time retries more  
and more to
occupy a server. The orbit has one waiting space only, and arriving  
customer,
who finds all servers busy and the waiting space occupied, abandons  
the system.
Time intervals between possible retrials are assumed to have arbitrary
distribution (the retrial scheme is exactly explained in the paper).  
The paper
provides analysis of this system. Specifically the paper studies  
optimal number
of servers to decrease the loss proportion to a given value. The  
representation
obtained for loss proportion enables us to solve the problem  
numerically. The
algorithm for numerical solution includes effective simulation, which  
meets the
challenge of rare events problem in simulation. Application of the  
results to
call centers is discussed as well.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605285

---------------------------------------------------------------

4285. A LIMIT THEOREM FOR THE MAXIMAL INTERPOINT DISTANCE OF A RANDOM  
SAMPLE  IN THE UNIT BALL

Michael Mayer and  Ilya Molchanov

We prove a limit theorem for the the maximal interpoint distance  
(also called
the diameter) for a sample of n i.i.d. points in the unit ball of  
dimension 2
or more. The exact form of the limit distribution and the required
normalisation are derived using assumptions on the tail of the  
interpoint
distance for two i.i.d. points. The results are specialised for the  
cases when
the points have spherical symmetric distributions, in particular, are  
uniformly
distributed in the whole ball and on its boundary.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605289

---------------------------------------------------------------

4286. CONTOUR LINES OF THE TWO-DIMENSIONAL DISCRETE GAUSSIAN FREE FIELD

Oded Schramm and Scott Sheffield

We prove that the chordal contour lines of the discrete Gaussian free  
field
converge to forms of SLE(4). Specifically, there is a constant lambda  
 > 0 such
that when h is an interpolation of the discrete Gaussian free field  
on a Jordan
domain -- with boundary values -lambda on one boundary arc and lambda  
on the
complementary arc -- the zero level line of h joining the endpoints  
of these
arcs converges to SLE(4) as the domain grows larger. If instead the  
boundary
values are -a < 0 on the first arc and b > 0 on the complementary  
arc, then the
convergence is to SLE(4;a/lambda-1,b/lambda-1), a variant of SLE(4).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605337

---------------------------------------------------------------

4287. TOWARD THE BEST CONSTANT FACTOR FOR THE RADEMACHER-GAUSSIAN  
TAIL  COMPARISON

Iosif Pinelis

Let S_n:=a_1\vp_1+...+a_n\vp_n, where \vp_1,...,\vp_n are independent
Rademacher random variables (r.v.'s) and a_1,...,a_n are any real  
numbers such
that a_1^2+...+a_n^2=1. Let Z be a standard normal r.v. It is proved  
that the
best constant factor c in inequality
   \P(S_n>x) \leq c\P(Z>x) for all x in \R is between two explicitly  
defined
absolute constants c_1 and c_2 such that c_1<c_2 \approx 1.01c_1.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605340

---------------------------------------------------------------

4288. GENERALIZED ENTROPY POWER INEQUALITIES AND MONOTONICITY  
PROPERTIES OF  INFORMATION

Mokshay Madiman and Andrew Barron

New families of Fisher information and entropy power inequalities for  
sums of
independent random variables are presented. These inequalities relate  
the
information in the sum of n independent random variables to the  
information
contained in sums over subsets of the random variables, for an arbitrary
collection of subsets. As a consequence, a simple proof of the  
monotonicity of
information in central limit theorems is obtained, both in the  
setting of
i.i.d. summands as well as in the more general setting of independent  
summands
with variance-standardized sums.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.IT/0605047

---------------------------------------------------------------

4289. WEAK APPROXIMATION OF STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND  
APPLICATION  TO DERIVATIVE PRICING

Syoiti Ninomiya and Nicolas Victoir

The authors present a new simple algorithm to approximate weakly  
stochastic
differential equations in the spirit of [1] and [2]. They apply it to  
the
problem of pricing Asian options under the Heston stochastic  
volatility model,
and compare it with other known methods. It is shown that the  
combination of
the suggested algorithm and quasi-Monte Carlo methods makes computations
extremely fast.
   [1] Shigeo Kusuoka, ``Approximation of Expectation of Diffusion  
Process and
Mathematical Finance,'' Advanced Studies in Pure Mathematics,  
Proceedings of
Final Taniguchi Symposium, Nara 1998 (T. Sunada, ed.), vol. 31 2001, pp.
147--165. [2] Terry Lyons and Nicolas Victoir, ``Cubature on Wiener  
Space,''
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A. Mathematical  
and Physical
Sciences 460 (2004), pp. 169--198.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605361

---------------------------------------------------------------

4290. THE FREIDLIN-WENTZELL LDP WITH RAPIDLY GROWING COEFFICIENTS

P. Chigansky and  R. Liptser

The Large Deviations Principle (LDP) is verified for a homogeneous  
diffusion
process with respect to a Brownian motion $B_t$, $$
X^\eps_t=x_0+\int_0^tb(X^\eps_s)ds+ \eps\int_0^t\sigma(X^\eps_s)dB_s,  
$$ where
$b(x)$ and $\sigma(x)$ are are locally Lipschitz functions with super  
linear
growth. We assume that the drift is directed towards the origin and  
the growth
rates of the drift and diffusion terms are properly balanced.  
Nonsingularity of
$a=\sigma\sigma^*(x)$ is not required.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605365

---------------------------------------------------------------

4291. ESTIMATES OF GREEN FUNCTION FOR SOME PERTURBATIONS OF  
FRACTIONAL  LAPLACIAN

Tomasz Grzywny and  Micha{\l} Ryznar

Suppose that Y(t) is a d-dimensional Levy symmetric process for which  
its
Levy measure differs from the Levy measure of the isotropic alpha-stable
process (0<alpha<2) by a finite signed measure. For a bounded  
Lipschitz set D
we compare the Green functions of the process Y and its stable  
counterpart. We
prove a few comparability results either one sided or two sided.  
Assuming an
additional condition about the difference of the densities of the Levy
measures, namely that it is of order of |x|^{-d+varrho} as x near 0,  
where
varrho>0, we prove that the Green functions are comparable, provided  
D is
connected.
   These results apply for example to alpha-stable relativistic  
process. This
process was studied in recent years. In the paper we also considered one
dimensional case for alpha<= 1 and proved that the Green functions  
for an open
and bounded interval are comparable.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605370

---------------------------------------------------------------

4292. POISSON APPROXIMATIONS FOR THE ISING MODEL

David Coupier

A $d$-dimensional Ising model on a lattice torus is considered. As  
the size
$n$ of the lattice tends to infinity, a Poisson approximation is  
given for the
distribution of the number of copies in the lattice of any given local
configuration, provided the magnetic field $a=a(n)$ tends to $-\infty 
$ and the
pair potential $b$ remains fixed. Using the Stein-Chen method, a  
bound is given
for the total variation error in the ferromagnetic case.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605395

---------------------------------------------------------------

4293. AN EXPLICIT BOUND ON THE LOGARITHMIC SOBOLEV CONSTANT OF  
WEAKLY  DEPENDENT RANDOM VARIABLES

Katalin Marton

We prove logarithmic Sobolev inequality for measures $$
q^n(x^n)=\text{dist}(X^n)=\exp\bigl(-V(x^n)\bigr), \quad x^n\in \Bbb  
R^n, $$
under the assumptions that: (i) the conditional distributions $$ Q_i 
(\cdot|
x_j, j\neq i)=\text{dist}(X_i| X_j= x_j, j\neq i) $$ satisfy a  
logarithmic
Sobolev inequality with a common constant $\rho$, and  (ii) they also  
satisfy
some condition expressing that the mixed partial derivatives of the  
Hamiltonian
$V$ are not too large relative to $\rho$. \bigskip Condition (ii) has  
the form
that the norms of some matrices defined in terms of the mixed partial
derivatives of $V$ do not exceed $1/2\cdot\rho\cdot(1-\de)$. The  
logarithmic
Sobolev constant of $q^n$ can then be estimated from below by
$1/2\cdot\rho\cdot\delta$. This improves on earlier results by Th.  
Bodineau and
B. Helffer, by giving an explicit bound, for the logarithmic Sobolev  
constant
for $q^n$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605397

---------------------------------------------------------------

4294. POISSON LIMITS FOR EMPIRICAL POINT PROCESSES

Andr\'{e} Dabrowski and  Gail Ivanoof and  Rafal Kulik

Define the scaled empirical point process on an independent and  
identically
distributed sequence $\{Y_i: i\le n\}$ as the random point measure  
with masses
at $a_n^{-1} Y_i$. For suitable $a_n$ we obtain the weak limit of  
these point
processes through a novel use of a dimension-free method based on the
convergence of compensators of multiparameter martingales. The method  
extends
previous results in several directions. We obtain limits at points  
where the
density of $Y_i$ may be zero, but has regular variation. The joint  
limit of the
empirical process evaluated at distinct points is given by  
independent Poisson
processes. These results also hold for multivariate $Y_i$ with little
additional effort. Applications are provided both to nearest- 
neighbour density
estimation in high dimensions, and to the asymptotic behaviour of  
multivariate
extremes such as those arising from bivariate normal copulas.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605400

---------------------------------------------------------------

4295. DECAY PROPERTIES OF THE CONNECTIVITY FOR MIXED LONG RANGE  
PERCOLATION  MODELS ON $\Z^D$

Gastao A. Braga and  Leandro M. Cioletti and  Remy Sanchis

In this paper we consider mixed short-long range independent bond  
percolation
models on $\Z^d$. Let $p_{uv}$ be the probability that the edge $(u,v) 
$ will be
open. Successive applications of the Simon-Lieb inequality at a fixed  
length
scale generates convolutions of $p_{uv}$ with itself which yields, in  
the
perturbative regime, that the long distance behavior of the connectivity
$\tau_{xy}$ is governed by the probability $p_{xy}$. Allowing a $x,y$- 
dependent
length scale and using a multi-scale analysis due to Aizenman and  
Newman, decay
properties of $\tau_{xy}$ are obtained up to the critical point.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0605047

---------------------------------------------------------------

4296. UNIVERSALITY FOR THE DISTANCE IN FINITE VARIANCE RANDOM GRAPHS:  
EXTENDED  VERSION

Henri van den Esker and  Remco van der Hofstad and Gerard Hooghiemstra

The asymptotic behavior of the graph distance between two uniformly  
chosen
nodes in the configuration model is generalized to a wide class of  
random
graphs, where the degrees have finite variance. Among others, this class
contains the Poissonian random graph and the generalized random graph
(including the classical Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph).
   We prove that the graph distance grows like $\log_\nu N$, when the  
base of
the logarithm equals $\nu = E[\Lambda^2]/E[\Lambda]$, where $\Lambda$  
is a
positive random variable with $P(\Lambda> x)\leq cx^{1-\tau}$, for some
constant $c$ and some power-law exponent $\tau>3$. In addition, the  
random
fluctuations around this asymptotic mean $\log_\nu N$ are  
characterized and
shown to be uniformly bounded.
   The proof of this result uses that the graph distance of all  
members of the
class can be coupled successfully to the graph distance in the  
Poissonian
random graph.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605414

---------------------------------------------------------------

4297. SMALL DEVIATIONS OF GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELDS IN $L_Q$--SPACES

Mikhail Lifshits and  Werner Linde and Zhan Shi

We investigate small deviation properties of Gaussian random fields  
in the
space $L_q(\R^N,\mu)$ where $\mu$ is an arbitrary finite compactly  
supported
Borel measure. Of special interest are hereby "thin" measures $\mu$,  
i.e.,
those which are singular with respect to the $N$--dimensional  
Lebesgue measure;
the so--called self--similar measures providing a class of typical  
examples.
   For a large class of random fields (including, among others,  
fractional
Brownian motions), we describe the behavior of small deviation  
probabilities
via numerical characteristics of $\mu$, called mixed entropy,  
characterizing
size and regularity of $\mu$.
   For the particularly interesting case of self--similar measures $ 
\mu$, the
asymptotic behavior of the mixed entropy is evaluated explicitly. As a
consequence, we get the asymptotic of the small deviation for $N$-- 
parameter
fractional Brownian motions with respect to $L_q(\R^N,\mu)$--norms.
   While the upper estimates for the small deviation probabilities  
are proved by
purely probabilistic methods, the lower bounds are established by  
analytic
tools concerning Kolmogorov and entropy numbers of H\"older operators.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605417

---------------------------------------------------------------

4298. IMBALANCE ATTRACTORS FOR A STRATEGIC MODEL OF MARKET  
MICROSTRUCTURE

Ted Theodosopoulos and Ming Yuen

In this paper we extend the series of our studies on the properties  
of an
interacting particle model for market microstructure. In our earlier  
work we
defined a Markov process on the majority opinion of the agents,  
obtained the
transition probabilities and analyzed the martingale properties of  
the ensuing
wealth process. Here we relax the assumption on the choices of  
individual
agents by allowing mixed strategies, offering opportunities for the  
agents to
gain intermediate submartingale exposure for their individual wealth  
processes.
We develop a novel two-dimensional spin system to model the critical  
regions of
the wealth process as a reflection of the agents' behaviors. We exhibit
strategic conflicts between individual market participants and the  
market as a
whole, and identify a new source of uncertainty arising from `reinforced
expectations'.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605421

---------------------------------------------------------------

4299. GENERALIZED 3G THEOREM AND APPLICATION TO RELATIVISTIC STABLE  
PROCESS ON  NON-SMOOTH OPEN SETS

Panki Kim and Young-Ran Lee

Let G(x,y) and G_D(x,y) be the Green functions of rotationally invariant
symmetric \alpha-stable process in R^d and in an open set D  
respectively, where
0<\alpha < 2. The inequality G_D(x,y)G_D(y,z)/G_D(x,z) \le c(G(x,y)+G 
(y,z)) is
a very useful tool in studying (local) Schrodinger operators. When  
the above
inequality is true with a constant c=c(D)>0, then we say that the 3G  
theorem
holds in D.
   In this paper, we establish a generalized version of 3G theorem  
when D is a
bounded \kappa-fat open set, which includes a bounded John domain.  
The 3G we
consider is of the form G_D(x,y)G_D(z,w)/G_D(x,w), where y may be  
different
from z. When y=z, we recover the usual 3G.
   The 3G form G_D(x,y)G_D(z,w)/G_D(x,w) appears in non-local  
Schrodinger
operator theory. Using our generalized 3G theorem, we give a concrete  
class of
functions belonging to the non-local Kato class, introduced by Chen  
and Song,
on \kappa-fat open sets.
   As an application, we discuss relativistic \alpha-stable processes
(relativistic Hamiltonian when \alpha=1) in \kappa-fat open sets. We  
identify
the Martin boundary and the minimal Martin boundary with the  
Euclidean boundary
for relativistic \alpha-stable processes in \kappa-fat open sets.  
Furthermore,
we show that relative Fatou type theorem is true for relativistic stable
processes in \kappa-fat open sets.
   The main results of this paper hold for a large class of symmetric  
Markov
processes, as are illustrated in the last section of this paper. We also
discuss the generalized 3G theorem for a large class of symmetric  
stable Levy
processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605422

---------------------------------------------------------------

4300. SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR THE INVERTIBILITY OF ADAPTED  
PERTURBATIONS OF  IDENTITY ON THE WIENER SPACE

Ali Suleyman Ustunel and Moshe Zakai

Let $(W,H,\mu)$ be the classical Wiener space. Assume that $U=I_W+u$  
is an
adapted perturbation of identity, i.e., $u:W\to H$ is adapted to the  
canonical
filtration of $W$. We give some sufficient analytic conditions on $u$  
which
imply the invertibility of the map $U$. In particular it is shown  
that if $u\in
\DD_{p,1}(H)$ is adapted and if $\exp({1/2}\|\nabla u\|_2^2-\delta u)\in
L^q(\mu)$, where $p^{-1}+q^{-1}=1$, then $I_W+u$ is almost surely  
invertible.
As a consequence, if, there exists an integer $k\geq 1$ such that $\| 
\nabla^k
u\|_{H^{\otimes(k+1)}}\in L^\infty(\mu)$, then $I_W+u$ is again  
almost surely
invertible.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605433

---------------------------------------------------------------

4301. RESAMPLING FROM THE PAST TO IMPROVE ON MCMC ALGORITHMS

Yves F. Atchade

We introduce the idea that resampling from past observations in a Markov
Chain Monte Carlo sampler can fasten convergence. We prove that proper
resampling from the past does not disturb the limit distribution of the
algorithm. We illustrate the method with two examples. The first on a  
Bayesian
analysis of stochastic volatility models and the other on Bayesian  
phylogeny
reconstruction.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0605452

---------------------------------------------------------------

4302. INFINITELY DIVISIBILITY OF SOLUTIONS OF SOME SEMI-STABLE   
INTEGRO-DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND EXPONENTIAL FUNCTIONALS OF LEVY  
PROCESSES

Pierre Patie

We provide the increasing $q$-harmonic functions associated to  
spectrally
negative semi-stable Feller semigroups, which have been introduced by  
Lamperti.
The functions are expressed in terms of a new family of power series  
which
includes, for instance, the modified Bessel functions of the first  
kind and
some new generalization of the Mittag-Leffler function. Then, we show  
that some
specific combinations of these functions are Laplace transforms of
selfdecomposable or infinitely divisible distributions concentrated  
on the
positive line. In particular, this generalizes the result of Hartman  
in the
case of the Bessel semigroup. Finally, when the Levy process has a  
negative
mean, we compute the associated decreasing $q$-harmonic functions and  
derive
the Laplace transform of the exponential functionals.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605453

---------------------------------------------------------------

4303. HYBRID DYNAMICS FOR CURRENCY MODELING

Ted Theodosopoulos and Alex Trifunovic

We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate
behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative  
symbolic
dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at- 
the-money
implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits  
information from
derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return
distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD  
exchange rate
and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. implied volatilities.  
Our
results indicate that the modulation of autoregressive trend  
following using
derivative-based signals significantly improves the fit to the  
distribution of
times between successive sign flips in the underlier time series.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605457

---------------------------------------------------------------

4304. ON STABLE PARETO LAWS IN A HIERARCHICAL MODEL OF ECONOMY

Alexander M. Chebotarev

This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose
pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric  
transactions
are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such  
that
commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in  
the opposite
direction. The price-invariance of transactions means that the  
probability of a
pairwise interaction is a function of the ratio of incomes, which is
independent of the price scale or absolute income level. These two  
features
characterize the hierarchical model. The income distribution in this  
class of
models is a well-defined double-Pareto function, which possesses  
Pareto tails
for the upper and lower incomes. For gross and net upper incomes, the  
model
predicts definite values of the Pareto exponents, $a_{\rm gross}$ and  
$a_{\rm
net}$, which are stable with respect to quantitative variation of the
pair-interaction. The Pareto exponents are also stable with respect  
to the
choice of a demand function within two classes of status-dependent  
behavior of
agents: linear demand ($a_{\rm gross}=1$, $a_{\rm net}=2$) and  
unlimited slowly
varying demand ($a_{\rm gross}=a_{\rm net}=1$). For the sigmoidal  
demand that
describes limited returns, $a_{\rm gross}=a_{\rm net}=1+\alpha$, with  
some
$\alpha>0$ satisfying a transcendental equation. The low-income  
distribution
may be singular or vanishing in the neighborhood of the minimal  
income; in any
case, it is $L_1$-integrable and its Pareto exponent is given  
explicitly.
   The theory used in the present study is based on a simple balance  
equation
and new results from multiplicative Markov chains and exponential  
moments of
random geometric progressions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605461

---------------------------------------------------------------

4305. STABILITY OF PROCESSOR SHARING NETWORKS WITH SIMULTANEOUS  
RESOURCE  REQUIREMENTS

Jennie Hansen and  Cian Reynolds and Stan Zachary

We study the phenomenon of entrainment in processor sharing networks,
whereby, while individual network resources have sufficient capacity  
to met
demand, the requirement for simultaneous availability of resources  
means that a
network may nevertheless be unstable. We show that instability occurs  
through
poor control, and that, for a variety of network topologies, only small
modifications to controls are required in order to ensure stability. For
controls which possess a natural monotonicity property, we give some new
results for the classification of the corresponding Markov processes,  
which
lead to conditions both for stability and for instability.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605477

---------------------------------------------------------------

4306. ON THE OCCUPATION MEASURE OF SUPER-BROWNIAN MOTION

J.F. Le Gall and M. Merle

We derive the asymptotic behavior of the occupation measure of the  
unit ball,
for super-Brownian motion started from the Dirac measure at a distant  
point x
and conditioned to hit the unit ball. In the critical dimension d=4,  
we obtain
a limiting exponential distribution for the ratio of the occupation  
measure
over log(|x|).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605482

---------------------------------------------------------------

4307. RANDOM REAL TREES

J.F. Le Gall

We survey recent developments about random real trees, whose  
prototype is the
Continuum Random Tree (CRT) introduced by Aldous in 1991. We briefly  
explain
the formalism of real trees, which yields a neat presentation of the  
theory and
in particular of the relations between discrete Galton-Watson trees and
continuous random trees. We then discuss the particular class of self- 
similar
random real trees called stable trees, which generalize the CRT. We  
review
several important results concerning stable trees, including their  
branching
property, which is analogous to the well-known property of Galton- 
Watson trees,
and the calculation of their fractal dimension. We then consider  
spatial trees,
which combine the genealogical structure of a real tree with spatial
displacements, and we explain their connections with superprocesses.  
In the
last section, we deal with a particular conditioning problem for  
spatial trees,
which is closely related to asymptotics for random planar  
quadrangulations.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605484

---------------------------------------------------------------

4308. AN ALGEBRAIC APPROACH OF POLYA PROCESSES

Nicolas Pouyanne (LM-Versailles)

P\'olya processes are natural generalization of P\'olya-Eggenberger urn
models. This article presents a new approach of their asymptotic  
behaviour {\it
via} moments, based on the spectral decomposition of a suitable finite
difference operator on polynomial functions. Especially, it provides new
results for {\it large} processes (a P\'olya process is called {\it  
small} when
1 is simple eigenvalue of its replacement matrix and when any other  
eigenvalue
has a real part $\leq 1/2$; otherwise, it is called large).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0605472

---------------------------------------------------------------

4309. ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF COMPARABILITY IN BRUHAT ORDER

Adam Hammett and Boris Pittel

The poset of permutations of [n] under Bruhat ordering is studied. We  
give
nontrivial upper and lower bounds for the number of comparable pairs of
permutations in both the weak and strong versions of this order. In  
light of
numerical experiments, we conjecture that in either case the upper  
bound is
qualitatively close to the actual number of comparable pairs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605490

---------------------------------------------------------------

4310. LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR WEIGHTED EMPIRICAL MEAN WITH OUTLIERS

Myl\`ene Ma\"{\i}da and  Jamal Najim and Sandrine P\'ech\'e

We study in this article large deviations for the empirical mean of iid
random vectors with some deterministic weights, whose empirical  
measure weakly
converges to some compactly support probability distribution. The  
scope of this
paper is to study the effect on the LDP of outliers, that is  
sequences of
weights that remain far from the support of the limiting measure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605491

---------------------------------------------------------------

4311. ZERO-ONE LAWS FOR BINARY RANDOM FIELDS

David Coupier and  Paul Doukhan and  Bernard Ycart

A set of binary random variables indexed by a lattice torus is  
considered.
Under a mixing hypothesis, the probability of any proposition  
belonging to the
first order logic of colored graphs tends to 0 or 1, as the size of  
the lattice
tends to infinity. For the particular case of the Ising model with  
bounded pair
potential and surface potential tending to $-\infty$, the threshold  
functions
of local propositions are computed, and sufficient conditions for the  
zero-one
law are given.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605502

---------------------------------------------------------------

4312. ON CLASSES OF NON-GAUSSIAN ASYMPTOTIC MINIMIZERS IN ENTROPIC  
UNCERTAINTY  PRINCIPLES

S. Zozor and  C. Vignat

In this paper we revisit the Bialynicki-Birula & Mycielski uncertainty
principle and its cases of equality. This Shannon entropic version of  
the
well-known Heisenberg uncertainty principle can be used when dealing  
with
variables that admit no variance. In this paper, we extend this  
uncertainty
principle to Renyi entropies. We recall that in both Shannon and  
Renyi cases,
and for a given dimension n, the only case of equality occurs for  
Gaussian
random vectors. We show that as n grows, however, the bound is also
asymptotically attained in the cases of n-dimensional Student-t and  
Student-r
distributions. A complete analytical study is performed in a special  
case of a
Student-t distribution. We also show numerically that this effect  
exists for
the particular case of a n-dimensional Cauchy variable, whatever the  
Renyi
entropy considered, extending the results of Abe and illustrating the
analytical asymptotic study of the student-t case. In the Student-r  
case, we
show numerically that the same behavior occurs for uniformly distributed
vectors. These particular cases and other ones investigated in this  
paper are
interesting since they show that this asymptotic behavior cannot be  
considered
as a "Gaussianization" of the vector when the dimension increases.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605510

---------------------------------------------------------------

4313. PHASE TRANSITIONS IN A PIECEWISE EXPANDING COUPLED MAP LATTICE  
WITH  LINEAR NEAREST NEIGHBOUR COUPLING

Jean-Baptiste Bardet (IRMAR) and  Gerhard Keller

We construct a mixing continuous piecewise linear map on [-1,1] with the
property that a two-dimensional lattice made of these maps with a  
linear north
and east nearest neighbour coupling admits a phase transition. We  
also provide
a modification of this construction where the local map is an expanding
analytic circle map. The basic strategy is borroughed from [Gielis- 
MacKay
(2000)], namely we compare the dynamics of the CML to those of a  
probabilistic
cellular automaton of Toom's type.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0605501

---------------------------------------------------------------

4314. POTENTIAL THEORY OF TRUNCATED STABLE PROCESSES

Panki Kim and Renming Song

For any 0 < alpha <2, a truncated symmetric alpha-stable process is a
symmetric Levy process in R^d with a Levy density given by c|x|^{-d- 
alpha}
1_{|x|< 1} for some constant c. In this paper we study the potential  
theory of
truncated symmetric stable processes in detail. We prove a Harnack  
inequality
for nonnegative harmonic nonnegative functions these processes. We also
establish a boundary Harnack principle for nonnegative functions  
which are
harmonic with respect to these processes in bounded convex domains.  
We give an
example of a non-convex domain for which the boundary Harnack  
principle fails.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605533

---------------------------------------------------------------

4315. EXPONENTIAL APPROXIMATION BY EXCHANGEABLE PAIRS AND SPECTRAL  
GRAPH  THEORY

Sourav Chatterjee and Jason Fulman

A general Berry-Esseen bound is obtained for the exponential  
distribution
using Stein's method of exchangeable pairs. As an application, an  
error term is
derived for Hora's result that the spectrum of the Bernoulli-Laplace  
Markov
chain has an exponential limit. This is the first use of Stein's  
method to
study the spectrum of a graph with a non-normal limit.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605552

---------------------------------------------------------------

4316. ON DUAL PROCESSES OF NON-SYMMETRIC DIFFUSIONS WITH MEASURE- 
VALUED DRIFTS

Panki Kim and Renming Song

In this paper, we study properties of the dual process and  
Schrodinger-type
operators of a non-symmetric diffusion with measure-valued drift. Let
mu=(mu^1,..., mu^d) be such that each mu^i is a signed measure on R^d  
belonging
to the Kato class K_{d, 1}. We show that a killed diffusion process with
measure-valued drift in any bounded domain has a dual process with  
respect to a
certain reference measure. For an arbitrary bounded domain, we show  
that a
scale invariant Harnack inequality is true for the dual process. We  
also show
that, if the domain is bounded C^{1,1}, the boundary Harnack  
principle for the
dual process is true and the (minimal) Martin boundary for the dual  
process can
be identified with the Euclidean boundary. It is also shown that the  
harmonic
measure for the dual process is locally comparable to that of the h- 
conditioned
Brownian motion with h being the ground state. Under the gaugeability
assumption, if the domain is bounded Lipschitz, the (minimal) Martin  
boundary
for the Schrodinger operator obtained from the diffusion with measure- 
value
drift can be identified with the Euclidean boundary.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605556

---------------------------------------------------------------

4317. ESTIMATES ON GREEN FUNCTIONS AND SCHRODINGER-TYPE EQUATIONS  
FOR  NON-SYMMETRIC DIFFUSIONS WITH MEASURE-VALUED DRIFTS

Panki Kim and Renming Song

In this paper, we establish sharp two-sided estimates for the Green  
functions
of non-symmetric diffusions with measure-valued drifts in bounded  
Lipschitz
domains. As consequences of these estimates, we get a 3G type theorem  
and a
conditional gauge theorem for these diffusions in bounded Lipschitz  
domains. We
also establish two-sided estimates for the heat kernels of  
Schrodinger-type
operators with measure-valued potential in bounded C^{1,1}-domains  
and a scale
invariant boundary Harnack principle for the positive harmonic  
functions with
respect to Schrodinger-type operators in bounded Lipschitz domains.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605557

---------------------------------------------------------------

4318. ON TAYLOR DISPERSION IN OSCILLATORY CHANNEL FLOWS

Kalvis M. Jansons

We revisit Taylor dispersion in oscillatory flows at zero Reynolds  
number,
giving an alternative method of calculating the Taylor dispersivity  
that is
easier to use with computer algebra packages to obtain exact  
expressions. We
consider the effect of out-of-phase oscillatory shear and Poiseuille  
flow, and
show that the resulting Taylor dispersivity is independent of the phase
difference. We also determine exact expressions for several examples of
oscillatory power-law fluid flows.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605561

---------------------------------------------------------------

4319. PARTITION FUNCTION OF PERIODIC ISORADIAL DIMER MODELS

B\'eatrice de Tili\`ere

Isoradial dimer models were introduced in \cite{Kenyon3} - they  
consist of
dimer models whose underlying graph satisfies a simple geometric  
condition, and
whose weight function is chosen accordingly. In this paper, we prove a
conjecture of \cite{Kenyon3}, namely that for periodic isoradial  
dimer models,
the growth rate of the toroidal partition function has a simple explicit
formula involving the local geometry of the graph only. This is a  
surprising
feature of periodic isoradial dimer models, which does not hold in  
the general
periodic dimer case \cite{KOS}.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605583

---------------------------------------------------------------

4320. MODELLING DERIVATIVES PRICING MECHANISMS WITH THEIR GENERATING  
FUNCTIONS

Shige Peng

In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial  
derivatives. A
typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g-- 
expectation defined
by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as  
its
generating function. Black-Scholes pricing model is a special linear  
case of
this pricing mechanism. We are mainly concerned with two types of  
pricing
mechanisms in an option market: the market pricing mechanism through  
which the
market prices of options are produced, and the ask-bid pricing mechanism
operated through the system of market makers. The later one is a typical
nonlinear pricing mechanism. Data of prices produced by these two  
pricing
mechanisms are usually quoted in an option market.
     We introduce a criteria, i.e., the domination condition (A5) in  
(2.5) to
test if a dynamic pricing mechanism under investigation is a g--pricing
mechanism. This domination condition was statistically tested using  
CME data
documents. The result of test is significantly positive. We also  
provide some
useful characterizations of a pricing mechanism by its generating  
function.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605599

---------------------------------------------------------------

4321. LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR SUMS DEFINED ON A GALTON-WATSON PROCESS

Klaus Fleischmann and Vitali Wachtel

In this paper we study the large deviation behavior of sums of i.i.d.  
random
variables X_i defined on a supercritical Galton-Watson process Z. We  
assume the
finiteness of the moments EX_1^2 and EZ_1log Z_1. The underlying  
interplay of
the partial sums of the X_i and the lower deviation probabilities of  
Z is
clarified. Here we heavily use lower deviation probability results on  
Z we
recently published in [FW06].


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605617

---------------------------------------------------------------

4322. SPATIAL BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES AS SOLUTIONS OF STOCHASTIC  
EQUATIONS

Nancy L. Garcia and  Thomas G. Kurtz

Spatial birth and death processes are obtained as solutions of a  
system of
stochastic equations. The processes are required to be locally  
finite, but may
involve an infinite population over the full (noncompact) type space.
Conditions are given for existence and uniqueness of such solutions,  
and for
temporal and spatial ergodicity. For birth and death processes with  
constant
death rate, a sub-criticality condition on the birth rate implies  
that the
process is ergodic and converges exponentially fast to the stationary
distribution.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605620

---------------------------------------------------------------

4323. THE LARGEST EIGENVALUE OF RANK ONE DEFORMATION OF LARGE WIGNER  
MATRICES

Delphine F\'eral and Sandrine P\'ech\'e

The purpose of this paper is to establish universality of the  
fluctuations of
the largest eigenvalue of some non necessarily Gaussian complex  
Deformed Wigner
Ensembles. The real model is also considered. Our approach is close  
to the one
used by A. Soshnikov in the investigations of classical real or  
complex Wigner
Ensembles. It is based on the computation of moments of traces of  
high powers
of the random matrices under consideration.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605624

---------------------------------------------------------------

4324. ON THE MAXIMUM QUEUE LENGTH IN THE SUPERMARKET MODEL

Malwina J. Luczak and  Colin McDiarmid

There are $n$ queues, each with a single server. Customers arrive in a
Poisson process at rate $\lambda n$, where $0<\lambda<1$. Upon  
arrival each
customer selects $d\geq2$ servers uniformly at random, and joins the  
queue at a
least-loaded server among those chosen. Service times are independent
exponentially distributed random variables with mean 1. We show that  
the system
is rapidly mixing, and then investigate the maximum length of a queue  
in the
equilibrium distribution. We prove that with probability tending to 1 as
$n\to\infty$ the maximum queue length takes at most two values, which  
are
$\ln\ln n/\ln d+O(1)$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605639

---------------------------------------------------------------

4325. THE SIZE OF COMPONENTS IN CONTINUUM NEAREST-NEIGHBOR GRAPHS

Iva Kozakova and  Ronald Meester and  Seema Nanda

We study the size of connected components of random nearest-neighbor  
graphs
with vertex set the points of a homogeneous Poisson point process in
${\mathbb{R}}^d$. The connectivity function is shown to decay
superexponentially, and we identify the exact exponent. From this we  
also
obtain the decay rate of the maximal number of points of a path  
through the
origin. We define the generation number of a point in a component and  
establish
its asymptotic distribution as the dimension $d$ tends to infinity.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605640

---------------------------------------------------------------

4326. DYNAMICAL STABILITY OF PERCOLATION FOR SOME INTERACTING  
PARTICLE SYSTEMS  AND $\EPSILON$-MOVABILITY

Erik I. Broman and  Jeffrey E. Steif

In this paper we will investigate dynamic stability of percolation  
for the
stochastic Ising model and the contact process. We also introduce the  
notion of
downward and upward $\epsilon$-movability which will be a key tool  
for our
analysis.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605641

---------------------------------------------------------------

4327. MONOTONICITY, ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY AND VERTEX DEGREES IN RANDOM  
GRAPHS

Svante Janson

We exploit a result by Nerman which shows that conditional limit  
theorems
hold when a certain monotonicity condition is satisfied. Our main  
result is an
application to vertex degrees in random graphs where we obtain  
asymptotic
normality for the number of vertices with a given degree in the  
random graph
G(n,m) with a fixed number of edges from the corresponding result for  
the
random graph G(n,m) with independent edges. We give also some simple
applications to random allocations and to spacings.
   Finally, inspired by these results but logically independent from  
them, we
investigate whether a one-sided version of the Cramer-Wold theorem  
holds. We
show that such a version holds under a weak supplementary condition,  
but not
without it.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605642

---------------------------------------------------------------

4328. COMPARISON OF WEIGHTED AND UNWEIGHTED HISTOGRAMS

N.D. Gagunashvili

Two modifications of the chi square test for comparing usual 
(unweighted) and
weighted histograms and two weighted histograms are proposed. Numerical
examples illustrate an application of the tests for the histograms with
different statistics of events. Proposed tests can be used for the  
comparison
of experimental data histograms against simulated data histograms and  
two
simulated data histograms.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/physics/0605123

---------------------------------------------------------------

4329. INTERMITTENCY ON CATALYSTS: SYMMETRIC EXCLUSION

J. Gaertner and  F. den Hollander and  G. Maillard

We continue our study of intermittency for the parabolic Anderson  
equation
$\partial u/\partial t = \kappa\Delta u + \xi u$, where $u\colon \Z^d 
\times
[0,\infty)\to\R$, $\kappa$ is the diffusion constant, $\Delta$ is the  
discrete
Laplacian, and $\xi\colon \Z^d\times [0,\infty)\to\R$ is a space-time  
random
medium. The solution of the equation describes the evolution of a  
``reactant''
$u$ under the influence of a ``catalyst'' $\xi$.
   In this paper we focus on the case where $\xi$ is exclusion with a  
symmetric
random walk transition kernel, starting from equilibrium with density  
$\rho\in
(0,1)$. We consider the annealed Lyapunov exponents, i.e., the  
exponential
growth rates of the successive moments of $u$. We show that these  
exponents are
trivial when the random walk is recurrent, but display an interesting
dependence on the diffusion constant $\kappa$ when the random walk is
transient, with qualitatively different behavior in different  
dimensions.
Special attention is given to the asymptotics of the exponents for
$\kappa\to\infty$, which is controlled by moderate deviations of $\xi$
requiring a delicate expansion argument.
   In G\"artner and den Hollander \cite{garhol04} the case where $\xi 
$ is a
Poisson field of independent (simple) random walks was studied. The  
two cases
show interesting differences and similarities. Throughout the paper, a
comparison of the two cases plays a crucial role.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605657

---------------------------------------------------------------

4330. A VERSION OF H\"ORMANDER'S THEOREM FOR THE FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN  
MOTION

F. Baudoin and  M. Hairer

It is shown that the law of an SDE driven by fractional Brownian  
motion with
Hurst parameter greater than 1/2 has a smooth density with respect to  
Lebesgue
measure, provided that the driving vector fields satisfy H\"ormander's
condition. The main new ingredient of the proof is an extension of  
Norris'
lemma to this situation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605658

---------------------------------------------------------------

4331. QUASI STATIONARY DISTRIBUTIONS AND FLEMING-VIOT PROCESSES IN  
COUNTABLE  SPACES

Pablo A. Ferrari and  Nevena Maric

We consider an irreducible pure jump Markov process with rates Q=(q 
(x,y)) on
\Lambda\cup\{0\} with \Lambda countable and 0 an absorbing state. A
quasi-stationary distribution (qsd) is a probability measure \nu on  
\Lambda
that satisfies: starting with \nu, the conditional distribution at  
time t,
given that at time t the process has not been absorbed, is still \nu.  
That is,
\nu(x) = \nu P_t(x)/(\sum_{y\in\Lambda}\nu P_t(y)), with P_t the  
transition
probabilities for the process with rates Q.
   A Fleming-Viot (fv) process is a system of N particles moving in  
\Lambda.
Each particle moves independently with rates Q until it hits the  
absorbing
state 0; but then instantaneously chooses one of the N-1 particles  
remaining in
\Lambda and jumps to its position. Between absorptions each particle  
moves with
rates Q independently.
   Under the condition \alpha:=\sum_x\inf Q(\cdot,x) > \sup Q(\cdot, 
0):=C we
prove existence of qsd for Q; uniqueness has been proven by Jacka and  
Roberts.
When \alpha>0 the {\fv} process is ergodic for each N. Under \alpha>C  
the mean
normalized densities of the fv unique stationary measure converge to  
the qsd of
Q, as N \to \infty; in this limit the variances vanish.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605665

---------------------------------------------------------------

4332. ON THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF SHARP CROSSINGS OF CERTAIN GAUSSIAN  
RANDOM  POLYNOMIALS

S. Shemehsavar and  S. Rezakhah

Let $Q_n(x)=\sum_{i=0}^{n} A_{i}x^{i}$ be a random algebraic  
polynomial where
the coefficients $A_0,A_1,... $ form a sequence of centered Gaussian  
random
variables. Moreover, assume that the increments $\Delta_j=A_j-A_{j-1}$,
$j=0,1,2,...$ are independent, assuming $A_{-1}=0$. The coefficients  
can be
considered as $n$ consecutive observations of a Brownian motion. We  
obtain the
asymptotic behaviour of the expected number of u-sharp crossings of  
polynomial
$Q_n(x)$ . We refer to u-sharp crossings as those zero up-crossings  
with slope
greater than $u$, or those down-crossings with slope smaller than $-u 
$. We
consider the cases where $u$ is unbounded and is increasing with $n$,  
where
$u=o(n^{5/4})$, and $u=o(n^{3/2})$ separately.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605699

---------------------------------------------------------------

4333. ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOUR OF THE SIMPLE RANDOM WALK ON THE 2-COMB

Daniela Bertacchi

We analyze the differences between the horizontal and the vertical  
component
of the simple random walk on the 2-dimensional comb. In particular we  
evaluate
by combinatorial methods the asymptotic behaviour of the expected  
value of the
distance from the origin, the maximal deviation and the maximal span  
in $n$
steps, proving that for all these quantities the order is $n^{1/4}$  
for the
horizontal projection and $n^{1/2}$ for the vertical one (the exact  
constants
are determined). Then we rescale the two projections of the random walk
dividing by $n^{1/4}$ and $n^{1/2}$ the horizontal and vertical ones,
respectively. The limit process is obtained. As a corollary of the  
estimate of
the expected value of the maximal deviation, the walk dimension is  
determined,
showing that the Einstein relation between the fractal, spectral and  
walk
dimensions does not hold on the comb.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605718

---------------------------------------------------------------

4334. DIGITAL SEARCH TREES AND CHAOS GAME REPRESENTATION

Peggy C\'{e}nac (INRIA Rocquencourt) and  Brigitte Chauvin  (LM- 
Versailles), St\'{e}phane Ginouillac (LM-Versailles), Nicolas Pouyanne
   (LM-Versailles)

In this paper, we consider a possible representation of a DNA  
sequence in a
quaternary tree, in which on can visualize repetitions of subwords. The
CGR-tree turns a sequence of letters into a digital search tree  
(DST), obtained
from the suffixes of the reversed sequence. Several results are known
concerning the height and the insertion depth for DST built from i.i.d.
successive sequences. Here, the successive inserted wors are strongly
dependent. We give the asymptotic behaviour of the insertion depth  
and of the
length of branches for the CGR-tree obtained from the suffixes of  
reversed
i.i.d. or Markovian sequence. This behaviour turns out to be at first  
order the
same one as in the case of independent words. As a by-product,  
asymptotic
results on the length of longest runs in a Markovian sequence are  
obtained.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605719

---------------------------------------------------------------

4335. ON THE BROWNIAN MEANDER AND EXCURSION CONDITIONED TO HAVE A  
FIXED TIME  AVERAGE

Lorenzo Zambotti

We study the density of the time average of the Brownian meander/ 
excursion
over the time interval [0,1]. Moreover we give an expression for the  
Brownian
meander/excursion conditioned to have a fixed time average.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605720

---------------------------------------------------------------

4336. INTRINSIC ULTRACONTRACTIVITY OF NON-SYMMETRIC DIFFUSIONS WITH   
MEASURE-VALUED DRIFTS AND POTENTIALS

Panki Kim and Renming Song

Recently we extended the concept of intrinsic ultracontractivity to
non-symmetric semigroups. In this paper, we study the intrinsic
ultracontractivity of non-symmetric diffusions with measure-valued  
drifts and
measure-valued potentials in bounded domains. We show that scale  
invariant
parabolic and elliptic Harnack inequalities are valid for this process.
   In this paper, we prove the parabolic boundary Harnack principle  
and the
intrinsic ultracontractivity for the killed diffusion with measure- 
valued drift
and potential when the domain is one of the following types of  
bounded domains:
twisted Holder domains of order (1/3, 1], uniformly Holder domains of  
order (0,
2) and domains which can be locally represented as the region above  
the graph
of a function. As a consequence of the intrinsic ultracontractivity,  
we get
that the supremum of the expected conditional lifetimes finite.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605757

---------------------------------------------------------------

4337. ZEROS OF RANDOM POLYNOMIALS ON C^M

Thomas Bloom and  Bernard Shiffman

For a regular compact set $K$ in $C^m$ and a measure $\mu$ on $K$  
satisfying
the Bernstein-Markov inequality, we consider the ensemble $P_N$ of  
polynomials
of degree $N$, endowed with the Gaussian probability measure induced by
$L^2(\mu)$. We show that for large $N$, the simultaneous zeros of $m$
polynomials in $P_N$ tend to concentrate around the Silov boundary of  
$K$; more
precisely, their expected distribution is asymptotic to $N^m \mu_{eq} 
$, where
$\mu_{eq}$ is the equilibrium measure of $K$. For the case where $K$  
is the
unit ball, we give scaling asymptotics for the expected distribution  
of zeros
as $N\to\infty$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CV/0605739

---------------------------------------------------------------

4338. THE OSTROGRADSKY SERIES AND RELATED PROBABILITY MEASURES

S.Albeverio and  O.Baranovskyi and  M.Pratsiovytyi and  G.Torbin

We develop a metric and probabilistic theory for the Ostrogradsky
representation of real numbers, i.e., the expansion of a real number  
$x$ in the
following form: \begin{align*} x&= \sum_n\frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{q_1q_2...  
q_n}=
&=\sum_n\frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{g_1(g_1+g_2)...(g_1+g_2+...+g_n)}\equiv
\bO1(g_1,g_2,...,g_n,...), \end{align*} where $q_{n+1}>q_n\in\N$,  
$g_1=q_1$,
$g_{k+1}=q_{k+1}-q_k$. We compare this representation with the  
corresponding
one in terms of continued fractions.
   We establish basic metric relations (equalities and inequalities  
for ratios
of the length of cylindrical sets). We also compute the Lebesgue  
measure of
subsets belonging to some classes of closed nowhere dense sets  
defined by
characteristic properties of the $\bO1$-representation. In  
particular, the
conditions for the set $\Cset{V}$, consisting of real numbers whose
$\bO1$-symbols take values from the set $V \subset N$, to be of zero  
resp.
positive Lebesgue measure are found. For a random variable $\xi$ with
independent $\bO1$-symbols $g_n(\xi)$ we prove the theorem  
establishing the
purity of the distribution. In the case of singularity the conditions  
for such
distributions to be of Cantor type are also found.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0605747

---------------------------------------------------------------

4339. SINGULAR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF  
SETS OF  REAL NUMBERS DEFINED BY THE ASYMPTOTIC FREQUENCIES OF THEIR  
S-ADIC DIGITS

S.Albeverio and  M.Pratsiovytyi and  G.Torbin

Properties of the set $T_s$ of "particularly non-normal numbers" of  
the unit
interval are studied in details ($T_s$ consists of real numbers $x$,  
some of
whose s-adic digits have the asymptotic frequencies in the  
nonterminating $s-$
adic expansion of $x$, and some do not). It is proven that the set  
$T_s$ is
residual in the topological sense (i.e., it is of the first Baire  
category) and
it is generic in the sense of fractal geometry ($T_s$ is a  
superfractal set,
i.e., its Hausdorff-Besicovitch dimension is equal to~1). A  
topological and
fractal classification of sets of real numbers via analysis of  
asymptotic
frequencies of digits in their s-adic expansions is presented.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0605763

---------------------------------------------------------------

4340. SIMPLE TRANSIENT RANDOM WALKS IN ONE-DIMENSIONAL RANDOM  
ENVIRONMENT: THE  CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

I. Ya. Goldsheid

We consider a simple random walk (dimension one, nearest neighbour  
jumps) in
a quenched random environment. The goal of this work is to provide  
sufficient
conditions, stated in terms of properties of the environment, under  
which the
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds for the position of the walk.  
Verifying these
conditions leads to a complete solution of the problem in the case of
independent identically distributed environments as well as in the  
case of
uniformly ergodic (and thus also weakly mixing) environments.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0605775

---------------------------------------------------------------

4341. OPTIMAL CONTROL FOR ROUGH DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

Laurent Mazliak (PMA) and  Ivan Nourdin (PMA)

In this note, we consider an optimal control problem associated to a
differential equation driven by a H\"{o}lder continuous function g of  
index
greater than 1/2. We split our study in two cases. If the coefficient  
of dg\_t
does not depend on the control process, we prove an existence theorem  
for a
slightly generalized control problem, that is we obtain a literal  
extension of
the corresponding deterministic situation. If the coefficient of dg 
\_t depends
on the control process, we also prove an existence theorem but we are  
here
obliged to restrict the set of controls to sufficiently regular  
functions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606030

---------------------------------------------------------------

4342. SHUFFLING CARDS FOR BLACKJACK, BRIDGE, AND OTHER CARD GAMES

Mark Conger and D. Viswanath

This paper is about the following question: How many riffle shuffles  
mix a
deck of card for games such as blackjack and bridge? An object that  
comes up in
answering this question is the descent polynomial associated with  
pairs of
decks, where the decks are allowed to have repeated cards. We prove  
that the
problem of computing the descent polynomial given a pair of decks is
$#P$-complete. We also prove that the coefficients of these  
polynomials can be
approximated using the bell curve. However, as must be expected in  
view of the
$#P$-completeness result, approximations using the bell curve are not  
good
enough to answer our question. Some of our answers to the main  
question are
supported by theorems, and others are based on experiments supported by
heuristic arguments. In the introduction, we carefully discuss the  
validity of
our answers.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606031

---------------------------------------------------------------

4343. LONG-TIME BEHAVIOR OF STOCHASTIC MODEL WITH MULTI-PARTICLE   
SYNCHRONIZATION

Anatoly Manita

We consider a basic stochastic particle system consisting of $N$  
identical
particles with isotropic $k$-particle synchronization, $k\geq 2$. In  
the limit
when both number of particles $N$ and time $t=t(N)$ grow to infinity  
we study
an asymptotic behavior of a coordinate spread of the particle system. We
describe three time stages of $t(N)$ for which a qualitative behavior  
of the
system is completely different. Moreover, we discuss the case when a  
spread of
the initial configuration depends on $N$ and increases to infinity as  
$N\to
\infty $.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606040

---------------------------------------------------------------

4344. SIEVING AND THE ERD{\H O}S-KAC THEOREM

Andrew Granville and K. Soundararajan

We give a relatively easy proof of the Erd\H os-Kac theorem via  
computing
moments. We show how this proof extends naturally in a sieve theory  
context,
and how it leads to several related results in the literature.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0606039

---------------------------------------------------------------

4345. THE POISSON BOUNDARY OF LAMPLIGHTER RANDOM WALKS ON TREES

Anders Karlsson and Wolfgang Woess

Let T be the homogeneous tree with degree and G a finitely generated  
group
whose Cayley graph is T. The associated lamplighter group is the  
wreath product
of the cyclic group of order r with G. For a large class of random  
walks on
this group, we prove almost sure convergence to a natural geometric  
boundary.
If the probability law governing the random walk has finite first  
moment, then
the probability space formed by this geometric boundary together with  
the limit
distribution of the random walk is proved to be maximal, that is, the  
Poisson
boundary. We also prove that the Dirichlet problem at infinity is  
solvable for
continuous functions on the active part of the boundary, if the  
lamplighter
"operates at bounded range".


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606046

---------------------------------------------------------------

4346. RECURRENCE AND TRANSIENCE FOR BRANCHING RANDOM WALKS IN AN IID  
RANDOM  ENVIRONMENT

Sebastian M\"uller

We give three different criteria for transience of a Branching Markov  
Chain.
These conditions enable us to give a classification of Branching  
Random Walks
in Random Environment (BRWRE) on Cayley Graphs in recurrence and  
transience.
This classification is stated explicitly for BRWRE on $\Z^d.$  
Furthermore, we
emphasize the interplay between Branching Markov Chains and the spectral
radius. We prove properties of the spectral radius of the Random Walk  
in Random
Environment with the help of appropriate Branching Markov Chains.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606055

---------------------------------------------------------------

4347. THE KNEE-JERK MAPPING

Peter G. Doyle and Jim Reeds

We claim to give the definitive theory of what we call the `knee-jerk
mapping', which is the basis for a class of optimization algorithms  
introduced
by Baum, and promoted by Dempster, Laird, and Rubin under the name `EM
algorithm'.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606068

---------------------------------------------------------------

4348. WIENER INTEGRALS, MALLIAVIN CALCULUS AND COVARIANCE MEASURE  
STRUCTURE

Ida Kruk (LAGA) and  Francesco Russo (LAGA) and  Ciprian Tudor (SAMOS)

We introduce the notion of {\em covariance measure structure} for square
integrable stochastic processes. We define Wiener integral, we develop a
suitable formalism for stochastic calculus of variations and we make  
Gaussian
assumptions only when necessary. Our main examples are finite quadratric
variation processes with stationary increments and the bifractional  
Brownian
motion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606069

---------------------------------------------------------------

4349. Q-GENERALIZATION OF SYMMETRIC ALPHA-STABLE DISTRIBUTIONS. PART I

Sabir Umarov and  Constantino Tsallis and  Murray Gell-Mann and  
Stanly  Steinberg

The classic and the L\'evy-Gnedenko central limit theorems play a key  
role in
theory of probabilities, and also in Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical
mechanics. They both concern the paradigmatic case of probabilistic
independence of the random variables that are being summed. A  
generalization of
the BG theory, usually referred to as nonextensive statistical  
mechanics and
characterized by the index $q$ ($q=1$ recovers the BG theory),  
introduces
global correlations between the random variables, and recovers  
independence for
$q=1$. The classic central limit theorem was recently $q$-generalized  
by some
of us. In the present paper we $q$-generalize the L\'evy-Gnedenko  
central limit
theorem.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0606038

---------------------------------------------------------------

4350. Q-GENERALIZATION OF SYMMETRIC ALPHA-STABLE DISTRIBUTIONS. PART II

Sabir Umarov and  Constantino Tsallis and  Murray Gell-Mann and  
Stanly  Steinberg

The classic and the L\'evy-Gnedenko central limit theorems play a key  
role in
theory of probabilities, and also in Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical
mechanics. They both concern the paradigmatic case of probabilistic
independence of the random variables that are being summed. A  
generalization of
the BG theory, usually referred to as nonextensive statistical  
mechanics and
characterized by the index $q$ ($q=1$ recovers the BG theory),  
introduces
global correlations between the random variables, and recovers  
independence for
$q=1$. The classic central limit theorem was recently $q$-generalized  
by some
of us. In the present paper we $q$-generalize the L\'evy-Gnedenko  
central limit
theorem. In Part I we described the $q$-version of the $\alpha$- 
stable L\'evy
distributions. In Part II we study the $(q^{\ast},q,q_{\ast})- 
$triplet, for
which the mapping $F_{q^{\ast}}: \, \mathcal{G}_{q} \rightarrow
\mathcal{G}_{q_{\ast}}$ holds. This fact allows to study the  
corresponding
attractors and to obtain a complete generalization of the $q$-central  
limit
theorem for random variables with infinite $(2q-1)$-variance.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0606040

---------------------------------------------------------------

4351. SOME PROPERTIES OF EXPONENTIAL INTEGRALS OF L\'EVY PROCESSES  
AND  EXAMPLES

Hitoshi Kondo and  Makoto Maejima and  Ken-iti Sato

The improper stochastic integral $Z=\int_0^{\infty-}\exp(-X_{s-})dY_s 
$ is
studied, where $\{(X_t, Y_t), t \geqslant 0 \}$ is a L\'evy process  
on $\mathbb
R ^{1+d}$ with $\{X_t \}$ and $\{Y_t \}$ being $\mathbb R$-valued and  
$\mathbb
R ^d$-valued, respectively. The condition for existence and  
finiteness of $Z$
is given and then the law $\mathcal L(Z)$ of $Z$ is considered. Some  
sufficient
conditions for $\mathcal L(Z)$ to be selfdecomposable and some  
sufficient
conditions for $\mathcal L(Z)$ to be non-selfdecomposable but
semi-selfdecomposable are given. Attention is paid to the case where  
$d=1$,
$\{X_t\}$ is a Poisson process, and $\{X_t\}$ and $\{Y_t\}$ are  
independent. An
example of $Z$ of type $G$ with selfdecomposable mixing distribution  
is given.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606084

---------------------------------------------------------------

4352. HITTING TIMES FOR GAUSSIAN PROCESSES

L. Decreusefond and D. Nualart

We establish a general formula for the Laplace transform of the  
hitting times
of a Gaussian process. Some consequences are derived, and in  
particular cases
like the fractional Brownian motion are discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606086

---------------------------------------------------------------

4353. PROJECTION FORMULAS FOR ORTHOGONAL POLYNOMIALS

W. Bryc and  W. Matysiak and  R. Szwarc and  J. Wesolowski

We prove a new projection formula for the four-parameter family of  
orthogonal
polynomials outside of the Askey-Wilson class. By carefully analyzing  
the
recurrence relations we manage to overcome the lack of explicit  
expression for
the orthogonality measure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CA/0606092

---------------------------------------------------------------

4354. GAUSSIAN MARGINALS OF PROBABILITY MEASURES WITH GEOMETRIC  
SYMMETRIES

Mark W. Meckes

Motivated by the multivariate version of the central limit problem  
for convex
bodies, we prove normal approximation theorems for k-dimensional  
marginals of
probability measures on R^n possessing certain geometric symmetries. In
particular, we derive results for uniform measures on 1-unconditional  
and
1-symmetric convex bodies and on simplices. We also discuss  
connections between
results of E. Meckes and the author for 1-dimensional marginals and a  
recent
result of B. Klartag.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.MG/0606073

---------------------------------------------------------------

4355. A DISCRETE INVITATION TO QUANTUM FILTERING AND FEEDBACK CONTROL

Luc Bouten and  Ramon van Handel and  and Matthew R. James

The engineering and control of devices at the quantum-mechanical  
level--such
as those consisting of small numbers of atoms and photons--is a delicate
business. The fundamental uncertainty that is inherently present at  
this scale
manifests itself in the unavoidable presence of noise, making this a  
novel
field of application for stochastic estimation and control theory. In  
this
expository paper we demonstrate estimation and feedback control of  
quantum
mechanical systems in what is essentially a noncommutative version of  
the
binomial model that is popular in mathematical finance. The model is  
extremely
rich and allows a full development of the theory, while remaining  
completely
within the setting of finite-dimensional Hilbert spaces (thus  
avoiding the
technical complications of the continuous theory). We introduce  
discretized
models of an atom in interaction with the electromagnetic field, obtain
filtering equations for photon counting and homodyne detection, and  
solve a
stochastic control problem using dynamic programming and Lyapunov  
function
methods.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606118

---------------------------------------------------------------

4356. PARAMETER-BASED FISHER'S INFORMATION OF ORTHOGONAL POLYNOMIALS

J.S. Dehesa and  B. Olmos & R.J. Yanez

The Fisher information of the classical orthogonal polynomials with  
respect
to a parameter is introduced, its interest justified and its explicit
expression for the Jacobi, Laguerre, Gegenbauer and Grosjean  
polynomials found.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CA/0606133

---------------------------------------------------------------

4357. DICHOTOMOUS MARKOV NOISE: EXACT RESULTS FOR OUT-OF-EQUILIBRIUM  
SYSTEMS  (A BRIEF OVERVIEW)

Ioana Bena

Nonequilibrium systems driven by additive or multiplicative dichotomous
Markov noise appear in a wide variety of physical and mathematical  
models. We
review here some prototypical examples, with an emphasis on {\em
analytically-solvable} situations. In particular, it has escaped  
attention till
recently that the standard results for the long-time properties of  
such systems
cannot be applied when unstable fixed points are crossed in the  
asymptotic
regime. We show how calculations have to be modified to deal with  
these cases
and present a few relevant applications -- the hypersensitive  
transport, the
rocking ratchet, and the stochastic Stokes' drift. These results  
reinforce the
impression that dichotomous noise can be put on a par with Gaussian  
white noise
as far as obtaining analytic results is concerned. They convincingly  
illustrate
the interplay between noise and nonlinearity in generating nontrivial  
behaviors
of nonequilibrium systems and point to various practical applications.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0606116

---------------------------------------------------------------

4358. PERCOLATION ON DUAL LATTICES WITH K-FOLD SYMMETRY

Bela Bollobas and Oliver Riordan

Zhang found a simple, elegant argument deducing the non-existence of an
infinite open cluster in certain lattice percolation models (for  
example, p=1/2
bond percolation on the square lattice) from general results on the  
uniqueness
of an infinite open cluster when it exists; this argument requires some
symmetry. Here we show that a simple modification of Zhang's argument  
requires
only 2-fold (or 3-fold) symmetry, proving that the critical  
probabilities for
percolation on dual planar lattices with such symmetry sum to 1. We  
also give a
new proof of a result of Grimmett determining the critical surface for
anisotropic percolation on the triangular lattice.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606149

---------------------------------------------------------------

4359. GENERALIZED CHEEGER INEQUALITIES FOR EIGENVALUES OF NON- 
REVERSIBLE  MARKOV CHAINS

Ravi Montenegro

We show lower bounds for the smallest non-trivial eigenvalue, and  
smallest
real portion of an eigenvalue, of the Laplacian of a non-reversible  
Markov
chain in terms of an Evolving set quantity. A myriad of Cheeger-like
inequalities follow for non-reversible chains, which even in the  
reversible
case sharpen previously known results. The same argument also  
produces a new
Cheeger-like inequality for the smallest eigenvalue of a reversible  
chain, and
a Cheeger-like inequality for the second largest magnitude eigenvalue  
of a
non-reversible chain.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606167

---------------------------------------------------------------

4360. STUDENT'S T-TEST WITHOUT SYMMETRY CONDITIONS

Iosif Pinelis

An explicit representation of an arbitrary zero-mean distribution as the
mixture of (at-most-)two-point zero-mean distributions is given.  
Based in this
representation, tests for (i) asymmetry patterns and (ii) for  
location without
symmetry conditions can be constructed. Exact inequalities implying
conservative properties of such tests are presented. These  
developments extend
results established earlier by Efron, Eaton, and Pinelis under a  
symmetry
condition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0606160

---------------------------------------------------------------

4361. CORRELATION DECAY AND DETERMINISTIC FPTAS FOR COUNTING LIST- 
COLORINGS OF  A GRAPH

David Gamarnik and Dmitriy Katz

We propose a deterministic algorithm for approximately counting the  
number of
list colorings of a graph. Under the assumption that the graph is  
triangle
free, the size of every list is at least $\alpha \Delta$, where $ 
\alpha$ is an
arbitrary constant bigger than $\alpha^{**}=2.8432...$, the solution  
of $\alpha
e^{-{1\over \alpha}}=2$, and $\Delta$ is the maximum degree of the  
graph, we
obtain the following results. For the case when the size of the each  
list is a
large constant, we show the existence of a \emph{deterministic} FPTAS  
for
computing the total number of list colorings. The same deterministic  
algorithm
has complexity $2^{O(\log^2 n)}$, without any assumptions on the  
sizes of the
lists, where $n$ is the size of the instance.
   Our results are not based on the most powerful existing counting  
technique --
rapidly mixing Markov chain method. Rather we build upon concepts from
statistical physics, in particular, the decay of correlation  
phenomena and its
implication for the uniqueness of Gibbs measures in infinite graphs.  
This
approach was proposed in two recent papers \cite 
{BandyopadhyayGamarnikCounting}
and \cite{weitzCounting}. The principle insight of the present work  
is that the
correlation decay property can be established with respect to certain
\emph{computation tree}, as opposed to the conventional correlation  
decay
property which is typically established with respect to graph theoretic
neighborhoods of a given node. This allows truncation of computation  
at a
logarithmic depth in order to obtain polynomial accuracy in  
polynomial time.
While the analysis conducted in this paper is limited to the problem of
counting list colorings, the proposed algorithm can be extended to an  
arbitrary
constraint satisfaction problem in a straightforward way.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0606143

---------------------------------------------------------------

4362. TRUELS, OR THE SURVIVAL OF THE WEAKEST

Pau Amengual and Ra\'ul Toral

In this paper we review some of the main results obtained in the  
field of
truels. A "truel" is a generalization of a duel involving three players.
Depending on the rules used for chosing the players, we may  
distinguish between
the random, sequential and simultaneous truel. A paradoxical result  
appears in
these games, as the player with the highest marksmanship does not  
necessarily
possess the highest survival (or winning) probability. In this work  
we limit
ourselves to the random and sequential truels in which players use  
their best
possible strategy with no coalitions. Furthermore, we have modified  
the random
truel and converted it into an opinion model. In this version each of  
the three
players holds a different opinion on a given topic. We address next the
question of who wins a "truel league". We will see that, despite the
paradoxical result mentioned above, still the distribution of winners  
is peaked
around the players with the higher marksmanship for the random and  
opinion
versions. In the sequential truel, however, the paradoxical result  
remains
partially since the distribution of winners is peaked around the  
intermediate
players.
   If the rules of truels are extended from three to $N$ players, the
paradoxical results shows up even more clearly since as $N$ increases  
it is
more difficult for the player with the highest marksmanship to win  
the game.
Finally, we consider the dynamics of the games in a spatial  
distribution in a
given network of interactions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606181

---------------------------------------------------------------

4363. GENERALIZATIONS OF HO-LEE'S BINOMIAL INTEREST RATE MODEL I:  
FROM ONE- TO  MULTI-FACTOR

Jir\^o Akahori and  Hiroki Aoki and  and Yoshihiko Nagata

In this paper a multi-factor generalization of Ho-Lee model is  
proposed. In
sharp contrast to the classical Ho-Lee, this generalization allows  
for those
movements other than parallel shifts, while it still is described by a
recombining tree, and is stationary to be compatible with principal  
component
analysis. Based on the model, generalizations of duration-based  
hedging are
proposed. A continuous-time limit of the model is also discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606183

---------------------------------------------------------------

4364. STABLE SEMIGROUPS ON HOMOGENEOUS TREES AND HYPERBOLIC SPACES

Andrzej Stos

We prove the kernel estimates related to subordinated semigroups on
homogeneous trees. We study the long time propagation problem. We  
exploit this
to show exit time estimates for (large) balls. We use an abstract  
setting of
metric measure spaces. This enables us to give these results for  
trees end
hyperbolic spaces as well. Finally, we show some estimates for the  
Poisson
kernel of a ball.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606185

---------------------------------------------------------------

4365. IDENTIFICATION D'UN PROCESSUS AUTOR\'{E}GRESSIF GAUSSIEN STABLE  
PAR LA  M\'{E}THODE DE MOYENNISATION LOGARITHMIQUE DANS LE CAS R\'{E}EL

Faouzi Chaabane (EASMS) and  Hamdi Fathallah (LM-Versailles)

In the present work, we consider a stable one-dimensional gaussian
autoregressive model in continous time. Using the limit theorems with
logarithmic averaging obtained for continous local martingales, we  
construct
then an estimator of the noise covariance $\sigma^{2}$ and an  
estimator of
$\theta$ different of the one of the least squares estimator. By  
exploiting the
weighting method we ameliorate the convergence rates of these new  
estimators.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606200

---------------------------------------------------------------

4366. FLOW PROPERTIES OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS DRIVEN BY FRACTIONAL  
BROWNIAN  MOTION

L. Decreusefond and D. Nualart

We prove that solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by
fractional Brownian motion for $H>1/2$ define flows of homeomorphisms on
$\mathbb{R}^{d}$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606214

---------------------------------------------------------------

4367. FREE JACOBI PROCESS

Nizar Demni (PMA) and  the PMA Collaboration

Using a matrix approach, we define the free Jacobi process as the  
limit of
the complex Jacobi matrix process. The we derive a free SDE which is  
analogous
to its classical counterpart. To proceed, we prove that fro suitable  
parameters
the process remains injective if it is initially injective and then  
use the
polar decomposition. In the stationnary case, this will be easily  
deduced from
the explicit expression of the spectral measure. In the general  
setting we
derive a recurrence formula for the moments. Moreover, a p. d. e. for  
the
Cauchy transform of the law is given.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606218

---------------------------------------------------------------

4368. SIGNIFICANT EDGES IN THE CASE OF A NON-STATIONARY GAUSSIAN NOISE

Isabelle Abraham (DCRE) and  Romain Abraham (MAPMO) and  Agnes  
Desolneux  (MAP5), Sebastien Li-Thiao-Te (CMLA)

In this paper, we propose an edge detection technique based on some  
local
smoothing of the image followed by a statistical hypothesis testing  
on the
gradient. An edge point being defined as a zero-crossing of the  
Laplacian, it
is said to be a significant edge point if the gradient at this point  
is larger
than a threshold $s(\eps)$ defined by: if the image $I$ is pure  
noise, then
$\P(\norm{\nabla I}\geq s(\eps) \bigm| \Delta I = 0) \leq\eps$. In  
other words,
a significant edge is an edge which has a very low probability to be  
there
because of noise. We will show that the threshold $s(\eps)$ can be  
explicitly
computed in the case of a stationary Gaussian noise. In images we are
interested in, which are obtained by tomographic reconstruction from a
radiograph, this method fails since the Gaussian noise is not stationary
anymore. But in this case again, we will be able to give the law of the
gradient conditionally on the zero-crossing of the Laplacian, and  
thus compute
the threshold $s(\eps)$. We will end this paper with some experiments  
and
compare the results with the ones obtained with some other methods of  
edge
detection.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0606219

---------------------------------------------------------------

4369. A DISCRETE IT\^O CALCULUS APPROACH TO HE'S FRAMEWORK FOR MULTI- 
FACTOR  DISCRETE MARKETS

Jir\^o Akahori

In the present paper, a discrete version of It\^o's formula for a  
class of
multi-dimensional random walk is introduced and applied to the study  
of a
discrete-time complete market model which we call He's framework. The  
formula
unifies continuous-time and discrete-time settings and by regarding  
the latter
as the finite difference scheme of the former, the order of  
convergence is
obtained. The result shows that He's framework cannot be of order 1  
scheme
except for the one dimensional case.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606292

---------------------------------------------------------------

4370. ON THE FREE ENERGY OF A DIRECTED POLYMER IN A BROWNIAN ENVIRONMENT

John Moriarty and Neil O'Connell

We prove a formula conjectured in O'Connell and Yor (2001) for the free
energy density of a directed polymer in a Brownian environment in 1+1
dimensions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606296

---------------------------------------------------------------

4371. DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR CIRCLE COVERING: BROWNIAN MOTION AND  
POISSON  UPDATING

Johan Jonasson and Jeffrey Steif

We consider two dynamical variants of the classical problem of random
interval coverings of the unit circle, the latter having been  
completely solved
by L. Shepp. In the first model, the centers of the intervals perform
independent Brownian motions and in the second model, the positions  
of the
intervals are updated according to independent Poisson processes  
where an
interval of length l is updated at rate l^{-alpha} where alpha is a  
parameter.
For the model with Brownian motions, a special case of our results is  
that if
the length of the nth interval is c/n, then there are times at which  
a fixed
point is not covered if and only if c <2 and there are times at which  
the
circle is not fully covered if and only if c <3. For the Poisson  
updating
model, we obtain analogous results with c <alpha and c <alpha +1  
instead. We
also compute the Hausdorff dimension of the set of exceptional times  
for some
of these questions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606297

---------------------------------------------------------------

4372. GENEALOGY OF CATALYTIC BRANCHING MODELS

Andreas Greven and  Lea Popovic and  and Anita Winter

We consider catalytic branching populations. They consist of a catalyst
population evolving according to a critical binary branching process in
continuous time with a constant branching rate, and of a reactant  
population
with a branching rate proportional to the number of catalyst  
individuals alive.
The reactant forms a process in random medium.
   We describe asymptotically the genealogy of catalytic branching  
populations
coded as the induced forest of $\R$-trees using the many individuals  
-- rapid
branching continuum limit. The limiting continuum genealogical  
forests are then
studied in detail from both the quenched and annealed point of view.  
The result
is obtained by constructing a contour process and analyzing the  
appropriately
rescaled version and its limit. The genealogy of the limiting forest is
described by a point-process. We compare geometric properties and  
statistics of
the reactant limit forest with those of the ``classical'' forest.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606313

---------------------------------------------------------------

4373. BAYESIAN REGRESSION OF PIECEWISE CONSTANT FUNCTIONS

Marcus Hutter

We derive an exact and efficient Bayesian regression algorithm for  
piecewise
constant functions of unknown segment number, boundary location, and  
levels. It
works for any noise and segment level prior, e.g. Cauchy which can  
handle
outliers. We derive simple but good estimates for the in-segment  
variance. We
also propose a Bayesian regression curve as a better way of smoothing  
data
without blurring boundaries. The Bayesian approach also allows  
straightforward
determination of the evidence, break probabilities and error  
estimates, useful
for model selection and significance and robustness studies. We  
discuss the
performance on synthetic and real-world examples. Many possible  
extensions will
be discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0606315

---------------------------------------------------------------

4374. GLOBALLY CENTERED DISCRETE SNAKES

Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Marckert (LaBRI)

We consider branching random walks built on Galton-Watson trees with
offspring distribution having a bounded support, conditioned to have  
$n$ nodes,
and their rescaled convergences to the Brownian snake. We exhibit a  
notion of
"globally centered discrete snake'' that extends the usual settings  
in which
the displacements are supposed centered. We show that under some  
additional
moment conditions, when $n$ goes to $+\infty$, "globally centered  
discrete
snakes'' converge to the Brownian snake. The proof relies on a  
precise study of
the "lineage'' of the nodes in a Galton-Watson tree conditioned by  
the size,
and their links with a multinomial process. Some consequences concerning
Galton-Watson trees conditioned by the size are also derived.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606338

---------------------------------------------------------------

4375. QUASI-INVARIANT MEASURES ON THE PATH SPACE OF A DIFFUSION

Denis Bell

The author has previously constructed a class of admissible vector  
fields on
the path space of an elliptic diffusion process $x$ taking values in  
a closed
compact manifold. In this Note the existence of flows for this class  
of vector
fields is established and it is shown that the law of $x$ is quasi- 
invariant
under these flows.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606365

---------------------------------------------------------------

4376. A WEAKNESS IN STRONG LOCALIZATION FOR SINAI'S WALK

Zhan Shi (PMA) and  Olivier Zindy (PMA)

Sinai's walk is a recurrent one-dimensional nearest-neighbour random  
walk in
random environment. It is known for a phenomenon of strong localization,
namely, the walk spends almost all time at or near the bottom of deep  
valleys
of the potential. Our main result shows a weakness of this localization
phenomenon: with probability one, the zones where the walk stays for  
the most
time can be far away from the sites where the walk spends the most  
time. In
particular, this gives a negative answer to a problem of Erd\H os and
R\'ev\'esz \cite{erdos-revesz}, originally formulated for the usual  
homogeneous
random walk.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606376

---------------------------------------------------------------

4377. DOMAIN OF ATTRACTION OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR  
THE  ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESS

Manuel Lladser and  Jaime San Martin

Let $X=(X_t)$ be a one-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an  
initial
density function $f$ supported on the positive real-line that is a  
regularly
varying function with exponent $-(1+\eta)$, with $\eta\in (0,1)$. We  
prove the
existence of a probability measure $\nu$ with a Lebesgue density,  
depending on
$\eta$, such that for every Borel set $A$ of the positive real-line:
$\lim_{t\to\infty} P_f(X_t\in A | T_0^X>t)=\nu(A)$, where $T_0^X$ is the
hitting time of 0 of $X$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606392

---------------------------------------------------------------

4378. RATES OF CONVERGENCE OF A TRANSIENT DIFFUSION IN A SPECTRALLY  
NEGATIVE  L\'{E}VY POTENTIAL

Arvind Singh (PMA)

We consider a diffusion process $X$ in a random L\'{e}vy potential $V 
$. We
study the rates of convergence when the diffusion is transient under the
assumption that the L\'{e}vy process does not possess positive jumps. We
generalize the previous results of Hu-Shi-Yor (1999) for drifted  
Brownian
potentials. In particular, we prove a conjecture of Carmona: provided  
that
there exists $0<\kappa<1$ such that $E[e^{\kappa V\_1}]=1$, then
$X\_t/t^\kappa$ converges to some non-degenerate distribution. These  
results
are in a way analogous to those obtained by Kesten-Kozlov-Spitzer  
(1975) for
the random walk in a random environment.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606411

---------------------------------------------------------------

4379. THE RANK OF RANDOM GRAPHS

Kevin P. Costello and  Van H. Vu

We show that almost surely the rank of the adjacency matrix of the
Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graph $G(n,p)$ equals the number of non-isolated
vertices for any $c\ln n/n<p<1/2$, where $c$ is an arbitrary positive  
constant
larger than 1/2. In particular, the giant component (a.s.) has full  
rank in
this range.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606414

---------------------------------------------------------------

4380. STOCHASTIC CALCULUS OF VARIATIONS FOR GENERAL L\'EVY PROCESSES  
AND ITS  APPLICATIONS TO JUMP-TYPE SDE'S WITH NON-DEGENERATED DRIFT

Alexey Kulik

We consider an SDE in R^m of the type dX(t)=a(X(t))dt+dU(t) with a L 
\'evy
process U and study the problem for the distribution of a solution to be
regular in various senses. We do not impose any specific conditions  
on the
L\'evy measure of the noise, and this is the main difference between  
our method
and the known methods by J.Bismut or J.Picard. The main tool in our  
approach is
the stochastic calculus of variations for a L\'evy process, based on the
time-stretching transformations of the trajectories. Three problems  
are solved
in this framework. First, we prove that if the drift coefficient a is
non-degenerated in an appropriate sense, then the law of the solution  
to the
Cauchy problem for the initial equation is absolutely continuous, as  
soon as
the L\'evy measure of the noise satisfies one of the rather weak  
intensity
conditions, for instance the so-called wide cone condition. Secondly, we
provide the sufficient conditions for the density of the distribution  
of the
solution to the Cauchy problem to be smooth in the terms of the  
family of the
so-called order indices of the L\'evy measure of the noise (the drift  
again is
supposed to be non-degenerated). At last, we show that an invariant
distribution to the initial equation, if exists, possesses a C^\infty- 
density
provided the drift is non-degenerated and the L\'evy measure of the  
noise
satisfies the wide cone condition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606427

---------------------------------------------------------------

4381. MARTIN BOUNDARY OF A KILLED RANDOM WALK ON A HALF-SPACE

Irina Ignatiouk-Robert

A complete representation of the Martin boundary of killed random  
walks on a
half-space $\Z^{d-1}\times\N^*$ is obtained. In particular, it is  
proved that
the corresponding Martin boundary is homemorphic to the half-sphere $ 
{\cal
S}^d_+ = \{z\in\R^{d-1}\times\R_+ : |z|=1\}$. The method is based on a
combination of ratio limits theorems and large deviation techniques.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606439

---------------------------------------------------------------

4382. ON A RANDOM GRAPH RELATED TO QUANTUM THEORY

Svante Janson

We show that a random graph studied by Ioffe and Levit is an example  
of an
inhomogeneous random graph of the type studied by Bollobas, Janson  
and Riordan,
which enables us to give a new, simple, proof of their result on a phase
transition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606454

---------------------------------------------------------------

4383. WEAK CONVERGENCE OF LAWS ON R^{K} WITH COMMON MARGINALS

Alessio Sancetta

We present a result on topologically equivalent integral metrics  
(Rachev,
1991, Muller, 1997) that metrize weak convergence of laws with common
marginals. This result is relevant for applications, as shown in a  
few simple
examples.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606462

---------------------------------------------------------------

4384. DIMENSION ESTIMATES FOR INVARIANT MEASURES OF CONTRACTING-ON- 
AVERAGE  ITERATED FUNCTION SYSTEMS

Micha{\l} Rams

We estimate from above and below the dimension of invariant measure for
contracting-on-average iterated function systems in $\R^d$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0606420

---------------------------------------------------------------

4385. SECOND ORDER FREENESS AND FLUCTUATIONS OF RANDOM MATRICES, III.  
HIGHER  ORDER FREENESS AND FREE CUMULANTS

Benoit Collins (Universite Claude Bernard and  Lyon 1) and  James A.  
Mingo  (Queen's University), Piotr Sniady (Uniwersytet Wroclawski),  
Roland Speicher
   (Queen's University)

We extend the relation between random matrices and free probability  
theory
from the level of expectations to the level of all correlation  
functions (which
are classical cumulants of traces of products of the matrices). We  
introduce
the notion of "higher order freeness" and develop a theory of  
corresponding
free cumulants. We show that two independent random matrix ensembles  
are free
of arbitrary order if one of them is unitarily invariant. We prove R- 
transform
formulas for second order freeness. Much of the presented theory  
relies on a
detailed study of the properties of "partitioned permutations".


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0606431

---------------------------------------------------------------

4386. RANDOM WALKS ON HYPERGROUP OF CONICS IN FINITE FIELDS

Le Anh Vinh

In this paper we study random walks on the hypergroup of conics in  
finite
fields. We investigate the behavior of random walks on this  
hypergroup, the
equilibrium distribution and the mixing times. We use the coupling  
method to
show that the mixing time of random walks on hypergroup of conics is  
only
linear.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606485

---------------------------------------------------------------

4387. RATE OF CONVERGENCE OF IMPLICIT APPROXIMATIONS FOR STOCHASTIC  
EVOLUTION  EQUATIONS

Istvan Gy\"{o}ngy and  Annie Millet (PMA)

Stochastic evolution equations in Banach spaces with unbounded nonlinear
drift and diffusion operators are considered. Under some regularity  
condition
assumed for the solution, the rate of convergence of implicit Euler
approximations is estimated under strong monotonicity and Lipschitz  
conditions.
The results are applied to a class of quasilinear stochastic PDEs of  
parabolic
type.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606488

---------------------------------------------------------------

4388. SPECTRAL GAP ESTIMATE FOR FRACTIONAL LAPLACIAN

M. Kwasnicki

A lower bound estimate \lambda_2 - \lambda_1 \ge c \lambda_1^{-d /  
\alpha}
(\diam D)^{-d - \alpha} for the spectral gap of the Dirichlet fractional
Laplacian on arbitrary bounded domain D is proved. This follows from a
variational formula for the spectral gap and an upper bound estimate  
for the
supremum norm of the ground state eigenfunction.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606509

---------------------------------------------------------------

4389. ON THE NUMBER OF CLUSTERS FOR PLANAR GRAPHS

Jean-Michel Billiot (LABSAD) and  Franck Corset (LABSAD) and  Eric  
Fontenas  (LABSAD)

The Tutte polynomial is a powerfull analytic tool to study the  
structure of
planar graphs. In this paper, we establish some relations between the  
number of
clusters per bond for planar graph and its dual : these relations  
bring into
play the coordination number of the graphs. The factorial moment  
measure of the
number of clusters per bond are given using the derivative of the Tutte
polynomial. Examples are presented for simple planar graph. The cases of
square, triangular, honeycomb, Archimedean and Laves lattices are  
discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0606495

---------------------------------------------------------------

4390. THRESHOLDS FOR VIRUS SPREAD ON NETWORKS

M.Draief; A.Ganesh; L.Massoulie

We study how the spread of computer viruses, worms, and other
self-replicating malware is affected by the logical topology of the  
network
over which they propagate. We consider a model in which each host can  
be in one
of 3 possible states - susceptible, infected or removed (cured, and  
no longer
susceptible to infection). We characterise how the size of the  
population that
eventually becomes infected depends on the network topology.  
Specifically, we
show that if the ratio of cure to infection rates is larger than the  
spectral
radius of the graph, and the initial infected population is small,  
then the
final infected population is also small in a sense that can be made  
precise.
Conversely, if this ratio is smaller than the spectral radius, then  
we show in
some graph models of practical interest (including power law random  
graphs)
that the final infected population is large. These results yield  
insights into
what the critical parameters are in determining virus spread in  
networks.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606514

---------------------------------------------------------------

4391. MULTIVARIATE RISKS AND DEPTH-TRIMMED REGIONS

Ignacio Cascos and  Ilya Molchanov

We describe a general framework for measuring risks, where the risk  
measure
takes values in an abstract cone. It is shown that this approach  
naturally
includes the classical risk measures and set-valued risk measures and  
yields a
natural definition of vector-valued risk measures. Several main  
constructions
of risk measures are described in this abstract axiomatic framework.
   It is shown that the concept of depth-trimmed (or central) regions  
from the
multivariate statistics is closely related to the definition of risk  
measures.
In particular, the halfspace trimming corresponds to the Value-at- 
Risk, while
the zonoid trimming yields the expected shortfall. In the abstract  
framework,
it is shown how to establish a both-ways correspondence between risk  
measures
and depth-trimmed regions. It is also demonstrated how the lattice  
structure of
the space of risk values influences this relationship.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606520

---------------------------------------------------------------

4392. WEAK AND ALMOST SURE LIMITS FOR THE PARABOLIC ANDERSON MODEL  
WITH HEAVY  TAILED POTENTIALS

Remco van der Hofstad and  Peter Morters and Nadia Sidorova

We study the parabolic Anderson problem, i.e., the heat equation with
independent identically distributed random potential and localised  
initial
condition. Our interest is in the long-term behaviour of the random  
total mass
of the unique non-negative solution in the case that the distribution  
of the
potential at one site is heavy tailed. For this, we study two  
paradigm cases of
fields with infinite moment generating functions: the case of  
polynomial or
Frechet tails, and the case of stretched exponential or Weibull  
tails. For
potentials with either polynomial or stretched exponential right  
tails, we find
asymptotic expansions for the logarithm of the total mass up to the  
first
random term, which we describe in terms of weak limit theorems. In  
the case of
polynomial tails, already the leading term in the expansion is  
random. For
stretched exponential tails, we observe random fluctuations in the  
almost sure
asymptotics of the second term of the expansion, but in the weak  
sense the
fourth term is the first random term of the expansion. The main tool  
in our
proofs is extreme value theory.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606527

---------------------------------------------------------------

4393. A VECTOR-VALUED ALMOST SURE INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE FOR  
HYPERBOLIC  DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

Ian Melbourne and Matthew Nicol

We prove an almost sure invariance principle (approximation by d- 
dimensional
Brownian motion) for vector-valued Holder observables of large  
classes of
nonuniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems. These systems include Axiom~A
diffeomorphisms and flows as well as systems modelled by Young towers  
with
moderate tail decay rates. In particular, the position variable of  
the planar
periodic Lorentz gas with finite horizon approximates a 2-dimensional  
Brownian
motion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0606535

---------------------------------------------------------------

4394. CONSTRUCTION OF SOME QUANTUM STOCHASTIC OPERATOR COCYCLES BY  
THE  SEMIGROUP METHOD

J. Martin Lindsay and  Stephen J. Wills

A new method for the construction of Fock-adapted operator Markovian  
cocycles
is outlined, and its use is illustrated by application to a number of  
examples
arising in physics and probability. The construction uses the Trotter- 
Kato
Theorem and a recent characterisation of such cocycles in terms of an
associated family of contraction semigroups.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.FA/0606545

---------------------------------------------------------------

4395. FUNCTIONALS OF BROWNIAN BRIDGES ARISING IN THE CURRENT MISMATCH  
IN  D/A-CONVERTERS

Markus Heydenreich and  Remco van der Hofstad and  Georgi Radulov

Digital-to-analog converters (DAC) transform signals from the abstract
digital domain to the real analog world. In many applications, DAC's  
play a
crucial role.
   Due to variability in the production, various errors arise that  
influence the
performance of the DAC. We focus on the current errors, which  
describe the
fluctuations in the currents of the various unit current elements in  
the DAC. A
key performance measure of the DAC is the Integrated Non-linearity  
(INL), which
we study in this paper.
   There are several DAC architectures. The most widely used  
architectures are
the thermometer, the binary and the segmented architectures. We study  
the two
extreme architectures, namely, the thermometer and the binary  
architectures. We
assume that the current errors are i.i.d. normally distributed, and  
reformulate
the INL as a functional of a Brownian bridge. We then proceed by  
investigating
these functionals. For the thermometer case, the functional is the  
maximal
absolute value of the Brownian bridge, which has been investigated in  
the
literature. For the binary case, we investigate properties of the  
functional,
such as its mean, variance and density.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606584

---------------------------------------------------------------

4396. BACKWARD PARABOLIC ITO EQUATIONS AND SECOND FUNDAMENTAL INEQUALITY

Nikolai Dokuchaev

Existence, uniqueness, and a priori estimates for solutions are  
studied for
stochastic parabolic Ito equations. An analog of the second fundamental
inequality and the related existence theorem are obtained for backward
stochastic parabolic Ito equation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606595

---------------------------------------------------------------

4397. A LIMIT THEOREM OF DISCRETE GALTON-WATSON BRANCHING PROCESSES  
WITH  IMMIGRATION

Zenghu Li

We provide a simple set of sufficient conditions for the weak  
convergence of
discrete Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration to  
continuous time
and continuous state branching processes with immigration.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606597

---------------------------------------------------------------

4398. REPRESENTATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF ITO PROCESSES IN BOUNDED  
DOMAINS VIA  PARABOLIC ITO EQUATIONS

Nikolai Dokuchaev

Representation of functionals of non-Markov processes is studied for  
bounded
and unbounded domains. These functionals are represented via  
solutions of
backward parabolic Ito equations. This results is based on an analog  
of the
second fundamental inequality and the related existence theorem are  
obtained
for backward parabolic Ito equations.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606601

---------------------------------------------------------------

4399. ANALYSIS OF THE ROSENBLATT PROCESS

Ciprian A. Tudor (SAMOS)

We analyze {\em the Rosenblatt process} which is a selfsimilar  
process with
stationary increments and which appears as limit in the so-called  
{\em Non
Central Limit Theorem} (Dobrushin and Major (1979), Taqqu (1979)).  
This process
is non-Gaussian and it lives in the second Wiener chaos. We give its
representation as a Wiener-It\^o multiple integral with respect to  
the Brownian
motion on a finite interval and we develop a stochastic calculus with  
respect
to it by using both pathwise type calculus and Malliavin calculus.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606602

---------------------------------------------------------------

4400. 0-1 LAWS FOR REGULAR CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Patrizia Berti and  Pietro Rigo

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{B},P)$ be a probability space,
$\mathcal{A}\subset\mathcal{B}$ a sub-$\sigma$-field, and $\mu$ a  
regular
conditional distribution for $P$ given $\mathcal{A}$. Necessary and  
sufficient
conditions for $\mu(\omega)(A)$ to be 0-1, for all $A\in\mathcal{A}$ and
$\omega\in A_0$, where $A_0\in\mathcal{A}$ and $P(A_0)=1$, are given.  
Such
conditions apply, in particular, when $\mathcal{A}$ is a tail
sub-$\sigma$-field. Let $H(\omega)$ denote the $\mathcal{A}$-atom  
including the
point $\omega\in\Omega$. Necessary and sufficient conditions for
$\mu(\omega)(H(\omega))$ to be 0-1, for all $\omega\in A_0$, are also  
given. If
$(\Omega,\mathcal{B})$ is a standard space, the latter 0-1 law is  
true for
various classically interesting sub-$\sigma$-fields $\mathcal{A}$,  
including
tail, symmetric, invariant, as well as some sub-$\sigma$-fields  
connected with
continuous time processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606604

---------------------------------------------------------------

4401. OPERATOR SPACE EMBEDDING OF LQ INTO LP

Marius Junge and  Javier Parcet

Let 1 \le p < q \le 2 and let M be any von Neumann algebra. We use  
recent
techniques from free harmonic analysis to construct a completely  
isomorphic
embedding of Lq(M) (equipped with its natural operator space  
structure) into
Lp(A) for some sufficiently large von Neumann algebra A. We show that
hyperfiniteness and the QWEP are preserved in our construction.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0606596

---------------------------------------------------------------

4402. APPROXIMATION OF STATIONARY PROCESSES BY HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

Lorenzo Finesso and  Angela Grassi and  Peter Spreij

We propose an algorithm for the construction of a Hidden Markov Model  
(HMM)
of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov  
chain) which
best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given  
stationary
process. We establish, under mild conditions, the existence of the  
divergence
rate between a stationary process and an HMM, and approximate it with a
properly defined divergence between their Hankel matrices. The proposed
three-step algorithm, based on the Nonnegative Matrix Factorization  
technique,
realizes an HMM optimal with respect to the Hankel approximated  
criterion. A
full theoretical analysis of the algorithm is given in the special  
case of
Markov approximation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OC/0606591

---------------------------------------------------------------

4403. EXPECTATION, CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION AND MARTINGALES IN LOCAL  
FIELDS

Steven N. Evans and Tye Lidman

We investigate a possible definition of expectation and conditional
expectation for random variables with values in a local field such as  
the
$p$-adic numbers. We define the expectation by analogy with the  
observation
that for real-valued random variables in $L^2$ the expected value is the
orthogonal projection onto the constants. Previous work has shown  
that the
local field version of $L^\infty$ is the appropriate counterpart of  
$L^2$, and
so the expected value of a local field-valued random variable is  
defined to be
its ``projection'' in $L^\infty$ onto the constants. Unlike the real  
case, the
resulting projection is not typically a single constant, but rather a  
ball in
the metric on the local field. However, many properties of this  
expectation
operation and the corresponding conditional expectation mirror those  
familiar
from the real-valued case; for example, conditional expectation is, in a
suitable sense, a contraction on $L^\infty$ and the tower property  
holds. We
also define the corresponding notion of martingale, show that several  
standard
examples of martingales (for example, sums or products of suitable  
independent
random variables or ``harmonic'' functions composed with Markov  
chains) have
local field analogues, and obtain versions of the optional sampling and
martingale convergence theorems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606609

---------------------------------------------------------------

4404. SUPERPROCESSES WITH DEPENDENT SPATIAL MOTION AND GENERAL  
BRANCHING  DENSITIES

Donald A. Dawson; Zenghu Li; Hao Wang

We construct a class of superprocesses by taking the high density  
limit of a
sequence of interacting-branching particle systems. The spatial  
motion of the
superprocess is determined by a system of interacting diffusions, the  
branching
density is given by an arbitrary bounded non-negative Borel function,  
and the
superprocess is characterized by a martingale problem as a diffusion  
process
with state space $M(\IR)$, improving and extending considerably the
construction of Wang (1997, 1998). It is then proved in a special  
case that a
suitable rescaled process of the superprocess converges to the usual  
super
Brownian motion. An extension to measure-valued branching catalysts  
is also
discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606615

---------------------------------------------------------------

4405. NON-LOCAL BRANCHING SUPERPROCESSES AND SOME RELATED MODELS

Donald A. Dawson and  Luis G. Gorostiza and  Zenghu Li

A new formulation of non-local branching superprocesses is given from  
which
we derive as special cases the rebirth, the multitype, the mass- 
structured, the
multilevel and the age-reproduction-structured superprocesses and the
superprocess-controlled immigration process. This unified treatment  
simplifies
considerably the proof of existence of the old classes of  
superprocesses and
also gives rise to some new ones.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606616

---------------------------------------------------------------

4406. SKEW CONVOLUTION SEMIGROUPS AND RELATED IMMIGRATION PROCESSES

Zeng-Hu Li

A special type of immigration associated with measure-valued branching
processes is formulated by using skew convolution semigroups. We give
characterization for a general inhomogeneous skew convolution  
semigroup in
terms of probability entrance laws. The related immigration process is
constructed by summing up measure-valued paths in the Kuznetsov process
determined by an entrance rule. The behavior of the Kuznetsov process  
is then
studied, which provides insights into trajectory structures of the  
immigration
process. Some well-known results on excessive measures are formulated  
in terms
of stationary immigration processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606617

---------------------------------------------------------------

4407. CONSTRUCTION OF IMMIGRATION SUPERPROCESSES WITH DEPENDENT  
SPATIAL MOTION  FROM ONE-DIMENSIONAL EXCURSIONS

Donald A. Dawson; Zenghu Li

A superprocess with dependent spatial motion and interactive  
immigration is
constructed as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral  
equation
carried by a stochastic flow and driven by Poisson processes of one- 
dimensional
excursions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606618

---------------------------------------------------------------

4408. GENERALIZED MEHLER SEMIGROUPS AND CATALYTIC BRANCHING PROCESSES  
WITH  IMMIGRATION

Donald A. Dawson and  Zenghu Li and  Byron Schmuland and  Wei Sun

Skew convolution semigroups play an important role in the study of
generalized Mehler semigroups and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We  
give a
characterization for a general skew convolution semigroup on real  
separable
Hilbert space whose characteristic functional is not necessarily  
differentiable
at the initial time. A connection between this subject and catalytic  
branching
superprocesses is established through fluctuation limits, providing a  
rich
class of non-differentiable skew convolution semigroups. Path  
regularity of the
corresponding generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes in different  
topologies
is also discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606619

---------------------------------------------------------------

4409. NON-DIFFERENTIABLE SKEW CONVOLUTION SEMIGROUPS AND RELATED   
ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESSES

Donald A. Dawson; Zenghu Li

It is proved that a general non-differentiable skew convolution  
semigroup
associated with a strongly continuous semigroup of linear operators  
on a real
separable Hilbert space can be extended to a differentiable one on  
the entrance
space of the linear semigroup. A cadlag strong Markov process on an  
enlargement
of the entrance space is constructed from which we obtain a  
realization of the
corresponding Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Some explicit  
characterizations of
the entrance spaces for special linear semigroups are given.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606620

---------------------------------------------------------------

4410. SUPERPROCESSES WITH COALESCING BROWNIAN SPATIAL MOTION AS LARGE- 
SCALE  LIMITS

Donald A. Dawson; Zenghu Li; Xiaowen Zhou

A superprocess with coalescing spatial motion is constructed in terms of
one-dimensional excursions. Based on this construction, it is proved  
that the
superprocess is purely atomic and arises as scaling limit of a  
special form of
the superprocess with dependent spatial motion studied in Dawson {\it  
et al.}
(2001) and Wang (1997, 1998).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606621

---------------------------------------------------------------

4411. CONDITIONAL LOG-LAPLACE FUNCTIONALS OF IMMIGRATION  
SUPERPROCESSES WITH  DEPENDENT SPATIAL MOTION

Zenghu Li; Hao Wang; Jie Xiong

A non-critical branching immigration superprocess with dependent spatial
motion is constructed and characterized as the solution of a stochastic
equation driven by a time-space white noise and an orthogonal martingale
measure. A representation of its conditional log-Laplace functionals is
established, which gives the uniqueness of the solution and hence its  
Markov
property. Some properties of the superprocess including an ergodic  
theorem are
also obtained.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606622

---------------------------------------------------------------

4412. BRANCHING PROCESSES WITH IMMIGRATION AND RELATED TOPICS

Zenghu Li

This is a survey on recent progresses in the study of branching  
processes
with immigration, generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and affine  
Markov
processes. We mainly focus on the applications of skew convolution  
semigroups
and the connections in those processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606623

---------------------------------------------------------------

4413. EIGENVALUES OF EUCLIDEAN RANDOM MATRICES

Charles Bordenave

We study the spectral measure of large Euclidean random matrices. The  
entries
of these matrices are determined by the relative position of $n$  
random points
in a compact set $\Omega_n$ of $\R^d$. Under various assumptions we  
establish
the almost sure convergence of the limiting spectral measure as the  
number of
points goes to infinity. The moments of the limiting distribution are  
computed,
and we prove that the limit of this limiting distribution as the  
density of
points goes to infinity has a nice expression. We apply our results  
to the
adjacency matrix of the geometric graph.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606624

---------------------------------------------------------------

4414. A CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR BIASED RANDOM WALKS ON GALTON- 
WATSON TREES

Yuval Peres and  Ofer Zeitouni

Let ${\cal T}$ be a rooted Galton-Watson tree with offspring  
distribution
$\{p_k\}$ that has $p_0=0$, mean $m=\sum kp_k>1$ and exponential tails.
Consider the $\lambda$-biased random walk $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 0}$ on $ 
{\cal T}$;
this is the nearest neighbor random walk which, when at a vertex $v$  
with $d_v$
offspring, moves closer to the root with probability $\lambda/(\lambda 
+d_v)$,
and moves to each of the offspring with probability $1/(\lambda+d_v) 
$. It is
known that this walk has an a.s. constant speed $\v=\lim_n |X_n|/n$
   (where $|X_n|$ is the distance of $X_n$ from the root), with $\v>0 
$ for $
0<\lambda<m$ and $\v=0$ for $\lambda \ge m$. For all $\lambda \le m$,  
we prove
a quenched CLT for $|X_n|-n\v$. (For $\lambda>m$ the walk is positive
recurrent, and there is no CLT.) The most interesting case by far is
$\lambda=m$, where the CLT has the following form: for almost every $ 
{\cal T}$,
the ratio $|X_{[nt]}|/\sqrt{n}$ converges in law as $n \to \infty$ to a
deterministic multiple of the absolute value of a Brownian motion.  
Our approach
to this case is based on an explicit description of an invariant  
measure for
the walk from the point of view of the particle (previously, such a  
measure was
explicitly known only for $\lambda=1$) and the construction of  
appropriate
harmonic coordinates.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606625

---------------------------------------------------------------

4415. MODELING FINANCIAL ASSETS WITHOUT SEMIMARTINGALES

Rosanna Coviello and  Francesco Russo

This paper does not suppose a priori that the evolution of the price  
of a
financial asset is a semimartingale. Since possible strategies of  
investors are
self-financing, previous prices are forced to be finite quadratic  
variation
processes. The non-arbitrage property is not excluded if the class $ 
{\cal A}$
of admissible strategies is restricted. The classical notion of  
martingale is
replaced with the notion of ${\cal A}$-martingale. A calculus related  
to ${\cal
A}$-martingales with some examples is developed. Some applications to  
the
maximization of the utility of an insider are expanded.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606642

---------------------------------------------------------------

4416. ENTROPY AND VISION

Rami Kanhouche (CMLA)

In vector quantization the number of vectors used to construct the  
codebook
is always an undefined problem, there is always a compromise between  
the number
of vectors and the quantity of information lost during the  
compression. In this
text we present a minimum of Entropy principle that gives solution to  
this
compromise and represents an Entropy point of view of signal  
compression in
general. Also we present a new adaptive Object Quantization technique  
that is
the same for the compression and the perception.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606643

---------------------------------------------------------------

4417. INTRINSIC ULTRACONTRACTIVITY FOR LEVY PROCESSES

Tomasz Grzywny

We prove the intrinsic ultracontractivity for the semigroup generated  
by a
large class of symmetric Levy processes such that the Levy measure  
satisfies
some conditions in the neighborhood of 0, killed on exiting a bounded  
and
connected Lipschitz domain.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606659

---------------------------------------------------------------

4418. ISOTROPIC RANDOM WALKS ON AFFINE BUILDINGS

James Parkinson

In this paper we apply techniques of spherical harmonic analysis to  
prove a
local limit theorem, a rate of escape theorem, and a central limit  
theorem for
isotropic random walks on arbitrary thick regular affine buildings of
irreducible type.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606662

---------------------------------------------------------------

4419. THE NOISE IN THE CIRCULAR LAW AND THE GAUSSIAN FREE FIELD

Brian Rider and  Balint Virag

Fill an n x n matrix with independent complex Gaussians of variance 1/ 
n. As n
approaches infinity, the eigenvalues {z_k} converge to a sum of an  
H^1-noise on
the unit disk and an independent H^{1/2}-noise on the unit circle. More
precisely, for C^1 functions of suitable growth, the distribution of
sum_{k=1}^n (f(z_k)-E f(z_k)) converges to that of a mean-zero  
Gaussian with
variance given by the sum of the squares of the disk H^1 and the  
circle H^{1/2}
norms of f. Moreover, with p_n the characteristic polynomial, log| 
p_n|- E
log|p_n| tends to the planar Gaussian free field conditioned to be  
harmonic
outside the unit disk. Finally, for polynomial test functions f, we  
prove that
the limiting covariance structure is universal for a class of models  
including
Haar distributed unitary matrices.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606663

---------------------------------------------------------------

4420. PERIODIC ATTRACTORS OF RANDOM TRUNCATOR MAPS

Ted Theodosopoulos and Robert Boyer

This paper introduces the \textit{truncator} map as a dynamical  
system on the
space of configurations of an interacting particle system. We  
represent the
symbolic dynamics generated by this system as a non-commutative  
algebra and
classify its periodic orbits using properties of endomorphisms of the  
resulting
algebraic structure. A stochastic model is constructed on these  
endomorphisms,
which leads to the classification of the distribution of periodic  
orbits for
random truncator maps. This framework is applied to investigate the  
periodic
transitions of Bornholdt's spin market model.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606667

---------------------------------------------------------------

4421. A CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR STOCHASTIC RECURSIVE SEQUENCES OF  
TOPICAL  OPERATORS

Glenn Merlet

Let $(A\_n)\_{n\in\N}$ be a sequence of stationary topical (i.e.  
isotone and
additively homogeneous) operators. Let $x(n,x\_0)$ be defined by
$x(0,x\_0)=x\_0$ and $x(n+1,x\_0)=A\_nx(n,x\_0)$. This can modelize a  
wide
range of systems including, train or queuing networks, job-shop,  
timed digital
circuits or parallel processing systems. When $(A\_n)\_{n\in\N}$ has  
the memory
loss property, $(x(n,x\_0))\_{n\in\N}$ satisfy a strong law of large  
numbers.
We show that it also satisfy the CLT if $\sAn$ satisfy the same  
mixing and
integrability assumptions that ensure the CLT for a sum of real  
variables in
the results by P. Billingsley and I. Ibragimov. This article is based  
on the
work by H. Ishitani for products of random positive matrices.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606668

---------------------------------------------------------------

4422. INTRINSIC ULTRACONTRACTIVITY FOR NON-SYMMETRIC LEVY PROCESSES

Panki Kim and Renming Song

Recently we extended the concept of intrinsic ultracontractivity to
non-symmetric semigroups and proved that for a large class of non- 
symmetric
diffusions Z with measure-valued drift and potential, the semigroup  
of Z^D (the
process obtained by killing Z upon exiting D) in a bounded domain is  
intrinsic
ultracontractive under very mild assumptions.
   In this paper, we study the intrinsic ultracontractivity for non- 
symmetric
discontinuous Levy processes. We prove that, for a large class of non- 
symmetric
discontinuous Levy processes X such that the Lebesgue measure is  
absolutely
continuous with respect to the Levy measure of X, the semigroup of  
X^D in any
bounded open set D is intrinsic ultracontractive. In particular, for the
non-symmetric stable process X, the semigroup of X^D is intrinsic
ultracontractive for any bounded set D. Using the intrinsic  
ultracontractivity,
we show that the parabolic boundary Harnack principle is true for those
processes. Moreover, we get that the supremum of the expected  
conditional
lifetimes in a bounded open set is finite. We also have results of  
the same
nature when the Levy measure is compactly supported.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606678

---------------------------------------------------------------

4423. QUASI-COMPACTNESS AND ABSOLUTELY CONTINUOUS KERNELS,  
APPLICATIONS TO  MARKOV CHAINS

Hubert Hennion (Universit\'e de Rennes I)

We show how the essential spectral radius of a bounded positive kernel,
acting on bounded functions, is linked to its lower approximation by  
certain
absolutely continuous kernels. The standart Doeblin's condition can be
interpreted in this context, and, when suitably reformulated, it  
leads to a
formula for the essential spectral radius. This results may be used to
characterize the Markov kernels having a quasi-compact action on a  
space of
measurable functions bounded with respect to some test function, when no
irreducibilty and aperiodicity are assumed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606680

---------------------------------------------------------------

4424. SLE AND ALPHA-SLE DRIVEN BY LEVY PROCESSES

Qing-Yang Guan and Matthias Winkel

Stochastic Loewner Evolutions (SLE) with a multiple sqrt(kappa)B of  
Brownian
motion B as driving process are random planar curves (if kappa<=4) or  
growing
compact sets generated by a curve (if kappa>4). We consider here more  
general
Levy processes as driving processes and obtain evolutions expected to  
look like
random trees or compact sets generated by trees, respectively. We  
show that
when the driving force is of the form sqrt(kappa)B+theta^(1/alpha)S  
for a
symmetric alpha-stable Levy process S, the cluster has zero or positive
Lebesgue measure according to whether kappa<=4 or kappa>4. We also give
mathematical evidence that a further phase transition at alpha=1 is
attributable to the recurrence/transience dychotomy of the driving Levy
process. We introduce a new class of evolutions that we call alpha- 
SLE. They
have alpha-self-similarity properties for alpha-stable Levy driving  
processes.
We show the phase transition at a critical coefficient theta=theta_0 
(alpha)
analogous to the kappa=4 phase transition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606685

---------------------------------------------------------------

4425. BOUNDARY BEHAVIOR OF HARMONIC FUNCTIONS FOR TRUNCATED STABLE  
PROCESSES

Panki Kim and Renming Song

For any \alpha in (0, 2), a truncated symmetric \alpha-stable process  
is a
symmetric Levy process with no diffusion part and with a Levy density  
given by
c|x|^{-d-\alpha} 1_{|x|< 1} for some constant c. In previous paper we  
have
studied the potential theory of truncated symmetric stable processes.  
Among
other things, we proved that the boundary Harnack principle is valid  
for the
positive harmonic functions of a truncated symmetric stable process  
in any
bounded convex domain and showed that the Martin boundary of any  
bounded convex
domain with respect to this process is the same as the Euclidean  
boundary.
However, for truncated symmetric stable processes, the boundary Harnack
principle is not valid in non-convex domains. In this paper, we show  
that, for
a large class of not necessarily convex bounded open sets called bounded
roughly connected \kappa-fat open sets (including bounded non-convex  
\kappa-fat
domains), the Martin boundary with respect to any truncated symmetric  
stable
process is still the same as the Euclidean boundary. We also show  
that, for
truncated symmetric stable processes a relative Fatou type theorem is  
true in
bounded roughly connected \kappa-fat open sets.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606706

---------------------------------------------------------------

4426. SOME CHARACTERIZATIONS OF THE SPHERICAL HARMONICS COEFFICIENTS  
FOR  ISOTROPIC RANDOM FIELDS

P. Baldi and  D. Marinucci

In this paper we provide some simple characterizations for the spherical
harmonics coefficients of an isotropic random field on the sphere.  
The main
result is a characterization of isotropic gaussian fields through  
independence
of the coefficients of their development in spherical harmonics.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606709

---------------------------------------------------------------

4427. SCALING LIMIT FOR TRAP MODELS ON Z^D

Gerard Ben Arous and Jiri Cerny

We give the ``quenched'' scaling limit of Bouchaud's trap model in  
dimension
d larger or equal to two. This scaling limit is the Fractional-Kinetics
process, that is the time change of a d-dimensional Brownian motion  
by the
inverse of an independent stable subordinator.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606719

---------------------------------------------------------------

4428. ENDS IN FREE MINIMAL SPANNING FORESTS

\'{A}d\'{a}m Tim\'{a}r

We show that for a transitive unimodular graph, the number of ends is  
the
same for every tree of the free minimal spanning forest. This answers a
question of Lyons, Peres and Schramm.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606750

---------------------------------------------------------------

4429. ON THE TRANSIENCE OF PROCESSES DEFINED ON GALTON--WATSON TREES

Andrea Collevecchio

We introduce a simple technique for proving the transience of certain
processes defined on the random tree $\mathcal{G}$ generated by a  
supercritical
branching process. We prove the transience for once-reinforced random  
walks on
$\mathcal{G}$, that is, a generalization of a result of Durrett,  
Kesten and
Limic [Probab. Theory Related Fields 122 (2002) 567--592]. Moreover,  
we give a
new proof for the transience of a family of biased random walks  
defined on
$\mathcal{G}$. Other proofs of this fact can be found in [Ann.  
Probab. 16
(1988) 1229--1241] and [Ann. Probab. 18 (1990) 931--958] as part of more
general results. A similar technique is applied to a vertex- 
reinforced jump
process. A by-product of our result is that this process is transient  
on the
3-ary tree. Davis and Volkov [Probab. Theory Related Fields 128  
(2004) 42--62]
proved that a vertex-reinforced jump process defined on the $b$-ary  
tree is
transient if $b\ge 4$ and recurrent if $b=1$. The case $b=2$ is still  
open.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606751

---------------------------------------------------------------

4430. CONCENTRATION FOR INFINITELY DIVISIBLE VECTORS WITH  
INDEPENDENT  COMPONENTS

C. Houdr\'e and  P. Reynaud-Bouret

For various classes of Lipschitz functions we provide dimension free
concentration inequalities for infinitely divisible random vectors with
independent components and finite exponential moments.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606752

---------------------------------------------------------------

4431. SAMPLE PATH PROPERTIES OF BIFRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION

Ciprian Tudor (SAMOS) and  Yimin Xiao

Let $B^{H, K}= \big\{B^{H, K}(t), t \in \R\_+ \big\}$ be a bifractional
Brownian motion in $\R^d$. We prove that $B^{H, K}$ is strongly locally
nondeterministic. Applying this property and a stochastic integral
representation of $B^{H, K}$, we establish Chung's law of the iterated
logarithm for $B^{H, K}$, as well as sharp H\"older conditions and tail
probability estimates for the local times of $B^{H, K}$. We also  
consider the
existence and the regularity of the local times of multiparameter  
bifractional
Brownian motion $B^{\bar{H}, \bar{K}}= \big\{B^{\bar{H}, \bar{K}}(t),  
t \in
\R^N\_+ \big\}$ in $\R^d$ using Wiener-It\^o chaos expansion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606753

---------------------------------------------------------------

4432. AVERAGE VOLUME, CURVATURES, AND EULER CHARACTERISTIC OF RANDOM  
REAL  ALGEBRAIC VARIETIES

Peter Buergisser

We determine the expected curvature polynomial of random real projective
varieties given as the zero set of independent random polynomials  
with Gaussian
distribution, whose distribution is invariant under the action of the
orthogonal group. In particular, the expected Euler characteristic of  
such
random real projective varieties is found. This considerably extends  
previously
known results on the number of roots, the volume, and the Euler  
characteristic
of the solution set of random polynomial equations


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606755

---------------------------------------------------------------

4433. EIGENVALUES OF GUE MINORS

Kurt Johansson and  Eric Nordenstam

Consider an infinite random matrix $H=(h_{ij})_{0<i,j}$ picked from the
Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE). Denote its main minors by $H_i=(h_ 
{rs})_{1\leq
r,s\leq i}$ and let the $j$:th largest eigenvalue of $H_i$ be $\mu^i_j 
$. We
show that the configuration of all these eigenvalues $(i,\mu_j^i)$  
form a
determinantal point process on $\mathbb{N}\times\mathbb{R}$.
   Furthermore we show that this process can be obtained as the  
scaling limit in
random tilings of the Aztec diamond close to the boundary. We also  
discuss the
corresponding limit for random lozenge tilings of a hexagon.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606760

---------------------------------------------------------------

4434. SOME PROPERTIES FOR SUPERPROCESS UNDER A STOCHASTIC FLOW

Kijung Lee and  Carl Mueller and  and Jei Xiong

For a superprocess under a stochastic flow, we prove that it has a  
density
with respect to the Lebesgue measure for d=1 and is singular for d>1.  
For d=1,
a stochastic partial differential equation is derived for the  
density. The
regularity of the solution is then proved by using Krylov's L_p- 
theory for
linear SPDE. A snake representation for this superprocess is  
established. As
applications of this representation, we prove the compact support  
property for
general d and singularity of the process when d>1.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606761

---------------------------------------------------------------

4435. ASYMPTOTIC EXPANSIONS FOR SUMS OF BLOCK-VARIABLES UNDER WEAK  
DEPENDENCE

S.N. Lahiri

Let $\{X_i\}\sipmi$ be a sequence of random vectors and $Y_{in}=f_ 
{in} ({\cal
X}_{i,\ell})$ be zero mean block-variables where ${\cal
X}_{i,\ell}=(X_i,...,X_{i+\ell-1}), ~i\geq 1$ are overlapping blocks  
of length
$\ell$ and where $f_{in}$ are Borel measurable functions. This paper
establishes valid joint asymptotic expansions of general orders for  
the joint
distribution of the sums $\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ and $\sum_{i=1}^n Y_{in}$  
under
weak dependence conditions on the sequence $\{X_i\}\sipmi$ when the  
block
length $\ell$ grows to infinity. Similar expansions are also derived  
for sums
of block variables based on non-overlapping blocks. In contrast to the
classical Edgeworth expansion results where the terms in the  
expansions are
given by powers of $n^{-1/2}$, the expansions derived here are  
mixtures of two
series, one in powers of $n^{-1/2}$ while the other in powers of
$[\frac{n}{\ell}]^{-1/2}$. Applications of the main results to  
expansions for
studentized statistics of time series data and to second order  
correctness of
the blocks of blocks bootstrap method for studentized statistics are  
given.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0606739

---------------------------------------------------------------

4436. LOGARITHMIC SOBOLEV INEQUALITY FOR THE INHOMOGENEOUS ZERO RANGE  
PROCESS

Hanna Jankowski

We prove that the logarithmic Sobolev constant for the inhomogeneous
symmetric nearest neighbour zero range process on a cube of size N^d  
grows as
N^2. We apply this result to the inhomogeneous process which arises  
in the
study of the homogeneous version of the zero range interacting  
particle system
with colours.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606778

---------------------------------------------------------------

4437. ON THE ABSOLUTE CONTINUITY OF L\'{E}VY PROCESSES WITH DRIFT

Ivan Nourdin and  Thomas Simon

We consider the problem of absolute continuity for the one- 
dimensional SDE
\[X_t=x+\int_0^ta(X_s) ds+Z_t,\] where $Z$ is a real L\'{e}vy process  
without
Brownian part and $a$ a function of class $\mathcal{C}^1$ with bounded
derivative. Using an elementary stratification method, we show that  
if the
drift $a$ is monotonous at the initial point $x$, then $X_t$ is  
absolutely
continuous for every $t>0$ if and only if $Z$ jumps infinitely often.  
This
means that the drift term has a regularizing effect, since $Z_t$  
itself may not
have a density. We also prove that when $Z_t$ is absolutely  
continuous, then
the same holds for $X_t$, in full generality on $a$ and at every  
fixed time
$t$. These results are then extended to a larger class of elliptic jump
processes, yielding an optimal criterion on the driving Poisson  
measure for
their absolute continuity.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606783

---------------------------------------------------------------

4438. TRACES OF SYMMETRIC MARKOV PROCESSES AND THEIR CHARACTERIZATIONS

Zhen-Qing Chen and  Masatoshi Fukushima and  Jiangang Ying

Time change is one of the most basic and very useful transformations for
Markov processes. The time changed process can also be regarded as  
the trace of
the original process on the support of the Revuz measure used in the  
time
change. In this paper we give a complete characterization of time  
changed
processes of an arbitrary symmetric Markov process, in terms of the
Beurling--Deny decomposition of their associated Dirichlet forms and  
of Feller
measures of the process. In particular, we determine the jumping and  
killing
measure (or, equivalently, the L\'{e}vy system) for the time-changed  
process.
We further discuss when the trace Dirichlet form for the time changed  
process
can be characterized as the space of finite Douglas integrals defined  
by Feller
measures. Finally, we give a probabilistic characterization of Feller  
measures
in terms of the excursions of the base process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606784

---------------------------------------------------------------

4439. TRANSITION SEMIGROUPS OF BANACH SPACE VALUED ORNSTEIN- 
UHLENBECK  PROCESSES

Ben Goldys and  Jan van Neerven

We investigate the transition semigroup of the solution to a stochastic
evolution equation $dX(t) = AX(t)dt +dW_H(t)$, $t\ge 0,$ where $A$ is  
the
generator of a $C_0$-semigroup $S$ on a separable real Banach space $E 
$ and
$W_H$ is cylindrical white noise with values in a real Hilbert space  
$H$ which
is continuously embedded in $E$. Various properties of these  
semigroups, such
as the strong Feller property, the spectral gap property, and  
analyticity, are
characterized in terms of the behaviour of $S$ in $H$. In particular we
investigate the interplay between analyticity of the transition  
semigroup,
$S$-invariance of $H$, and analyticity of the restricted semigroup  
$S_H$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606785

---------------------------------------------------------------

4440. CONCENTRATION INEQUALITIES AND ASYMPTOTIC RESULTS FOR RATIO  
TYPE  EMPIRICAL PROCESSES

Evarist Gin\'{e} and  Vladimir Koltchinskii

Let $\mathcal{F}$ be a class of measurable functions on a measurable  
space
$(S,\mathcal{S})$ with values in $[0,1]$ and let
\[P_n=n^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n\delta_{X_i}\] be the empirical measure based  
on an
i.i.d. sample $(X_1,...,X_n)$ from a probability distribution $P$ on
$(S,\mathcal{S})$. We study the behavior of suprema of the following  
type:
\[\sup_{r_n<\sigma_Pf\leq \delta_n}\frac{|P_nf-Pf|}{\phi(\sigma_Pf)}, 
\] where
$\sigma_Pf\ge\operatorname {Var}^{1/2}_Pf$ and $\phi$ is a  
continuous, strictly
increasing function with $\phi(0)=0$. Using Talagrand's concentration
inequality for empirical processes, we establish concentration  
inequalities for
such suprema and use them to derive several results about their  
asymptotic
behavior, expressing the conditions in terms of expectations of  
localized
suprema of empirical processes. We also prove new bounds for expected  
values of
sup-norms of empirical processes in terms of the largest $\sigma_Pf$  
and the
$L_2(P)$ norm of the envelope of the function class, which are  
especially
suited for estimating localized suprema. With this technique, we  
extend to
function classes most of the known results on ratio type suprema of  
empirical
processes, including some of Alexander's results for VC classes of  
sets. We
also consider applications of these results to several important  
problems in
nonparametric statistics and in learning theory (including general  
excess risk
bounds in empirical risk minimization and their versions for $L_2$- 
regression
and classification and ratio type bounds for margin distributions in
classification).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0606788

---------------------------------------------------------------

4441. RANDOM TREES IN ELECTRICAL NETWORKS

Hariharan Narayanan

This paper contains results relating currents and voltages in resistive
networks to appropriate random trees or forests in those networks.  
Since each
resistive network has a reversible Markov chain equivalent, we obtain
equivalent results for the latter as well. We describe a way of  
obtaining a
harmonic function on a weighted graph given the boundary values, by  
choosing
random forests of the graph. As applications of the theorems  
discussed, (which
give formulae of the Kirchhoff tree kind), we obtain an expression  
for the
expected transit time from one state to another in a reversible  
Markov chain in
terms of its arborescences. The methods of this paper can also be  
used to give
alternative proofs of the Kirchhoff tree formula.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607011

---------------------------------------------------------------

4442. CONCENTRATION FOR NORMS OF INFINITELY DIVISIBLE VECTORS WITH  
INDEPENDENT  COMPONENTS

C. Houdr\'e and  P. Marchal and  P. Reynaud-Bouret

We obtain dimension free concentration inequalities for $L^p$, $p\ge 2$,
norms of infinitely divisible random vectors with independent  
coordinates. The
methods and results extend to some other classes of Lipschitz functions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607019

---------------------------------------------------------------

4443. MEDIAN, CONCENTRATION AND FLUCTUATION FOR L\'EVY PROCESSES

C. Houdr\'e and P. Marchal

We estimate a median of $f(X_t)$ where $f$ is a Lipschitz function, $X 
$ is a
L\'evy process and $t$ an arbitrary time. This leads to concentration
inequalities for $f(X_t)$. In turn, corresponding fluctuation  
estimates are
obtained under assumptions typically satisfied if the process has a  
regular
behavior in small time and a, possibly different, regular behavior in  
large
time.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607022

---------------------------------------------------------------

4444. DUALITY AND EVOLVING SET BOUNDS ON MIXING TIMES

Ravi Montenegro

We sharpen the Evolving set methodology of Morris and Peres and  
extend it to
study convergence in total variation, relative entropy, $L^2$ and other
distances. Bounds in terms of a modified form of conductance are  
given which
apply even for walks with no holding probability. These bounds are  
found to be
strictly better than earlier Evolving set bounds, may be  
substantially better
than conductance profile results derived via Spectral profile, and  
drastically
sharpen Blocking Conductance bounds if there are no bottlenecks at  
small sets.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607031

---------------------------------------------------------------

4445. A GENERAL FORMULA FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE MAXIMUM OF A  
GAUSSIAN  FIELD AND THE APPROXIMATION OF THE TAIL

Jean-Marc Aza\"{\i}s Mario Wschebor

We study the probability distribution $F(u)$ of the maximum of smooth
Gaussian fields defined on compact subsets of $\R^d$ having some  
geometric
regularity.
  Our main result is a general formula for the density of $F$. Even  
though this
is an implicit formula, one can deduce from it explicit bounds for  
the density,
hence for the distribution, as well as improved expansions for $ 1-F 
(u)$ for
large values of $u$.
  The main tool is the Rice formula for the moments of the number of  
roots of a
random system of equation over the reals, of which we give a new  
simplified
proof.
  This method enables also to study second order properties of the so- 
called
expected Euler Characteristic approximation using only elementary  
arguments and
to extend these kind of results to some interesting classes of  
Gaussian fields.
  We obtain more precise results for the "direct method" to compute the
distribution of the maximum, using spectral theory of GOE random  
matrices.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607041

---------------------------------------------------------------

4446. HIGH-FREQUENCY ASYMPTOTICS FOR SUBORDINATED ISOTROPIC FIELDS ON  
AN  ABELIAN COMPACT GROUP

Domenico Marinucci and  Giovanni Peccati (LSTA)

Let T* be a random field indexed by an Abelian compact group G, and  
suppose
that T* has the form T* = F(T(g)), where T is Gaussian and isotropic.  
The aim
of this paper is to establish high-frequency central limit theorems  
for the
Fourier coefficients associated to T*. The proofs of our main results  
involve
recently established criteria for the weak convergence of multiple
Wiener-It\^{o} integrals. Our research is motivated by physical  
applications,
mainly related to the probabilistic modelization of the Cosmic Microwave
Background radiation. In this connection, the case of the n- 
dimensional torus
is analyzed in detail.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607044

---------------------------------------------------------------

4447. OPTIMAL SCALING FOR PARTIALLY UPDATING MCMC ALGORITHMS

Peter Neal and  Gareth Roberts

In this paper we shall consider optimal scaling problems for high- 
dimensional
Metropolis--Hastings algorithms where updates can be chosen to be lower
dimensional than the target density itself. We find that the optimal  
scaling
rule for the Metropolis algorithm, which tunes the overall algorithm  
acceptance
rate to be 0.234, holds for the so-called Metropolis-within-Gibbs  
algorithm as
well. Furthermore, the optimal efficiency obtainable is independent  
of the
dimensionality of the update rule. This has important implications  
for the MCMC
practitioner since high-dimensional updates are generally  
computationally more
demanding, so that lower-dimensional updates are therefore to be  
preferred.
Similar results with rather different conclusions are given for so- 
called
Langevin updates. In this case, it is found that high-dimensional  
updates are
frequently most efficient, even taking into account computing costs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607054

---------------------------------------------------------------

4448. ACCURACY OF STATE SPACE COLLAPSE FOR EARLIEST-DEADLINE-FIRST  
QUEUES

{\L}ukasz Kruk and  John Lehoczky and  Steven Shreve

This paper presents a second-order heavy traffic analysis of a single  
server
queue that processes customers having deadlines using the
earliest-deadline-first scheduling policy. For such systems, referred  
to as
real-time queueing systems, performance is measured by the fraction of
customers who meet their deadline, rather than more traditional  
performance
measures, such as customer delay, queue length or server utilization.  
To model
such systems, one must keep track of customer lead times (the time  
remaining
until a customer deadline elapses) or equivalent information. This paper
reviews the earlier heavy traffic analysis of such systems that provided
approximations to the system's behavior. The main result of this  
paper is the
development of a second-order analysis that gives the accuracy of the
approximations and the rate of convergence of the sequence of real-time
queueing systems to its heavy traffic limit.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607056

---------------------------------------------------------------

4449. ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE POISSON--DIRICHLET DISTRIBUTION FOR  
LARGE  MUTATION RATE

Donald A. Dawson and  Shui Feng

The large deviation principle is established for the Poisson--Dirichlet
distribution when the parameter $\theta$ approaches infinity. The  
result is
then used to study the asymptotic behavior of the homozygosity and the
Poisson--Dirichlet distribution with selection. A phase transition  
occurs
depending on the growth rate of the selection intensity. If the  
selection
intensity grows sublinearly in $\theta$, then the large deviation  
rate function
is the same as the neutral model; if the selection intensity grows at  
a linear
or greater rate in $\theta$, then the large deviation rate function  
includes an
additional term coming from selection. The application of these  
results to the
heterozygote advantage model provides an alternate proof of one of  
Gillespie's
conjectures in [Theoret. Popul. Biol. 55 145--156].


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607070

---------------------------------------------------------------

4450. TAIL ESTIMATES FOR HOMOGENIZATION THEOREMS IN RANDOM MEDIA

Daniel Boivan (LM)

It is known that a random walk on $\Z^d$ among i.i.d. uniformly elliptic
random bond conductances verifies a central limit theorem. It is also  
known
that approximations of the covariance matrix can be obtained by  
considering
periodic environments. Here we estimate the speed of convergence of this
homogenization result. We obtain similar estimates for finite volume
approximations of the effective conductance and of the lowest Dirichlet
eigenvalue. A lower bound is also given for the variance of the Green  
function
of a random walk in a random non-negative potential.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607073

---------------------------------------------------------------

4451. ON THE DOMAIN OF ATTRACTION FOR THE LOWER TAIL IN WICKSELL'S  
CORPUSCLE  PROBLEM

S. Koetzer and I. Molchanov

We consider the classical Wicksell corpuscle problem with spherical  
particles
in R^n and investigate the shapes of lower tails of distributions of  
`sphere
radii' in R^n and `sphere radii' in a k-dimensional section plane. We  
show in
which way the domains of attraction are related to each other.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607086

---------------------------------------------------------------

4452. TRANSPORTATION DISTANCE AND THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

S.Ekisheva and  C. Houdr\'e

For probability measures on a complete separable metric space, we  
present
sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution to the Kantorovich
transportation problem. We also obtain sufficient conditions (which  
sometimes
also become necessary) for the convergence, in transportation, of  
probability
measures when the cost function is continuous, non-decreasing and  
depends on
the distance. As an application, the CLT in the transportation  
distance is
proved for independent and some dependent stationary sequences.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607089

---------------------------------------------------------------

4453. ASYMPTOTICS OF SOLUTIONS TO SEMILINEAR STOCHASTIC WAVE EQUATIONS

Pao-Liu Chow

Large-time asymptotic properties of solutions to a class of semilinear
stochastic wave equations with damping in a bounded domain are  
considered.
First an energy inequality and the exponential bound for a linear  
stochastic
equation are established. Under appropriate conditions, the existence  
theorem
for a unique global solution is given. Next the questions of bounded  
solutions
and the exponential stability of an equilibrium solution, in mean- 
square and
the almost sure sense, are studied. Then, under some sufficient  
conditions, the
existence of a unique invariant measure is proved. Two examples are  
presented
to illustrate some applications of the theorems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607097

---------------------------------------------------------------

4454. AVERAGE OPTIMALITY FOR CONTINUOUS-TIME MARKOV DECISION  
PROCESSES IN  POLISH SPACES

Xianping Guo and  Ulrich Rieder

This paper is devoted to studying the average optimality in  
continuous-time
Markov decision processes with fairly general state and action  
spaces. The
criterion to be maximized is expected average rewards. The transition  
rates of
underlying continuous-time jump Markov processes are allowed to be  
unbounded,
and the reward rates may have neither upper nor lower bounds. We  
first provide
two optimality inequalities with opposed directions, and also give  
suitable
conditions under which the existence of solutions to the two optimality
inequalities is ensured. Then, from the two optimality inequalities  
we prove
the existence of optimal (deterministic) stationary policies by using  
the
Dynkin formula. Moreover, we present a ``semimartingale  
characterization'' of
an optimal stationary policy. Finally, we use a generalized Potlach  
process
with control to illustrate the difference between our conditions and  
those in
the previous literature, and then further apply our results to  
average optimal
control problems of generalized birth--death systems, upwardly skip-free
processes and two queueing systems. The approach developed in this  
paper is
slightly different from the ``optimality inequality approach'' widely  
used in
the previous literature.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607098

---------------------------------------------------------------

4455. CONTINUOUS-TIME GARCH PROCESSES

Peter Brockwell and  Erdenebaatar Chadraa and  Alexander Lindner

A family of continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally
heteroscedastic processes, generalizing the $\operatorname {COGARCH} 
(1,1)$
process of Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller [J. Appl. Probab. 41  
(2004)
601--622], is introduced and studied. The resulting $\operatorname
{COGARCH}(p,q)$ processes, $q\ge p\ge 1$, exhibit many of the  
characteristic
features of observed financial time series, while their corresponding
volatility and squared increment processes display a broader range of
autocorrelation structures than those of the $\operatorname {COGARCH} 
(1,1)$
process. We establish sufficient conditions for the existence of a  
strictly
stationary nonnegative solution of the equations for the volatility  
process
and, under conditions which ensure the finiteness of the required  
moments,
determine the autocorrelation functions of both the volatility and  
the squared
increment processes. The volatility process is found to have the
autocorrelation function of a continuous-time autoregressive moving  
average
process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607109

---------------------------------------------------------------

4456. A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE PRICING OF CONTINGENT CLAIMS IN  
THE  PRESENCE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY

Laurent Denis and  Claude Martini

The aim of this work is to evaluate the cheapest superreplication  
price of a
general (possibly path-dependent) European contingent claim in a  
context where
the model is uncertain. This setting is a generalization of the  
uncertain
volatility model (UVM) introduced in by Avellaneda, Levy and Paras. The
uncertainty is specified by a family of martingale probability  
measures which
may not be dominated. We obtain a partial characterization result and  
a full
characterization which extends Avellaneda, Levy and Paras results in  
the UVM
case.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607111

---------------------------------------------------------------

4457. VARIANCE-OPTIMAL HEDGING FOR PROCESSES WITH STATIONARY  
INDEPENDENT  INCREMENTS

Friedrich Hubalek and  Jan Kallsen and  Leszek Krawczyk

We determine the variance-optimal hedge when the logarithm of the  
underlying
price follows a process with stationary independent increments in  
discrete or
continuous time. Although the general solution to this problem is  
known as
backward recursion or backward stochastic differential equation, we  
show that
for this class of processes the optimal endowment and strategy can be  
expressed
more explicitly. The corresponding formulas involve the moment,  
respectively,
cumulant generating function of the underlying process and a Laplace- or
Fourier-type representation of the contingent claim. An example  
illustrates
that our formulas are fast and easy to evaluate numerically.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607112

---------------------------------------------------------------

4458. WIDTH AND MODE OF THE PROFILE FOR SOME RANDOM TREES OF  
LOGARITHMIC  HEIGHT

Luc Devroye and  Hsien-Kuei Hwang

We propose a new, direct, correlation-free approach based on central  
moments
of profiles to the asymptotics of width (size of the most abundant  
level) in
some random trees of logarithmic height. The approach is simple but  
gives
precise estimates for expected width, central moments of the width  
and almost
sure convergence. It is widely applicable to random trees of logarithmic
height, including recursive trees, binary search trees, quad trees,
plane-oriented ordered trees and other varieties of increasing trees.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607119

---------------------------------------------------------------

4459. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR POISSON HYPERPLANE TESSELLATIONS

Lothar Heinrich and  Hendrik Schmidt and  Volker Schmidt

We derive a central limit theorem for the number of vertices of convex
polytopes induced by stationary Poisson hyperplane processes in $ 
\mathbb{R}^d$.
This result generalizes an earlier one proved by Paroux [Adv. in  
Appl. Probab.
30 (1998) 640--656] for intersection points of motion-invariant  
Poisson line
processes in $\mathbb{R}^2$. Our proof is based on Hoeffding's  
decomposition of
$U$-statistics which seems to be more efficient and adequate to  
tackle the
higher-dimensional case than the ``method of moments'' used in [Adv.  
in Appl.
Probab. 30 (1998) 640--656] to treat the case $d=2$. Moreover, we  
extend our
central limit theorem in several directions. First we consider $k$-flat
processes induced by Poisson hyperplane processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$  
for $0\le
k\le d-1$. Second we derive (asymptotic) confidence intervals for the
intensities of these $k$-flat processes and, third, we prove  
multivariate
central limit theorems for the $d$-dimensional joint vectors of  
numbers of
$k$-flats and their $k$-volumes, respectively, in an increasing  
spherical
region.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607120

---------------------------------------------------------------

4460. COMPLETE CORRECTED DIFFUSION APPROXIMATIONS FOR THE MAXIMUM OF  
A RANDOM  WALK

Jose Blanchet and  Peter Glynn

Consider a random walk $(S_n:n\geq0)$ with drift $-\mu$ and $S_0=0$.  
Assuming
that the increments have exponential moments, negative mean, and are  
strongly
nonlattice, we provide a complete asymptotic expansion (in powers of $ 
\mu>0$)
that corrects the diffusion approximation of the all time maximum
$M=\max_{n\geq0}S_n$. Our results extend both the first-order  
correction of
Siegmund [Adv. in Appl. Probab. 11 (1979) 701--719] and the full  
asymptotic
expansion provided in the Gaussian case by Chang and Peres [Ann.  
Probab. 25
(1997) 787--802]. We also show that the Cram\'{e}r--Lundberg constant  
(as a
function of $\mu$) admits an analytic extension throughout a  
neighborhood of
the origin in the complex plane $\mathbb{C}$. Finally, when the  
increments of
the random walk have nonnegative mean $\mu$, we show that the Laplace
transform, $E_{\mu}\exp(-bR(\infty))$, of the limiting overshoot, $R 
(\infty)$,
can be analytically extended throughout a disc centered at the origin in
$\mathbb{C\times C}$ (jointly for both $b$ and $\mu$). In addition,  
when the
distribution of the increments is continuous and appropriately  
symmetric, we
show that $E_{\mu}S_{\tau}$ [where $\tau$ is the first (strict)  
ascending
ladder epoch] can be analytically extended to a disc centered at the  
origin in
$\mathbb{C}$, generalizing the main result in [Ann. Probab. 25 (1997)  
787--802]
and extending a related result of Chang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 2 (1992)  
714--738].


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607121

---------------------------------------------------------------

4461. ERROR ESTIMATES FOR BINOMIAL APPROXIMATIONS OF GAME OPTIONS

Yuri Kifer

We justify and give error estimates for binomial approximations of game
(Israeli) options in the Black--Scholes market with Lipschitz  
continuous path
dependent payoffs which are new also for usual American style  
options. We show
also that rational (optimal) exercise times and hedging self-financing
portfolios of binomial approximations yield for game options in the
Black--Scholes market ``nearly'' rational exercise times and  
``nearly'' hedging
self-financing portfolios with small average shortfalls and initial  
capitals
close to fair prices of the options. The estimates rely on strong  
invariance
principle type approximations via the Skorokhod embedding.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607123

---------------------------------------------------------------

4462. BIASED RANDOM-TO-TOP SHUFFLING

Johan Jonasson

Recently Wilson [Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004) 274--325] introduced an
important new technique for lower bounding the mixing time of a  
Markov chain.
In this paper we extend Wilson's technique to find lower bounds of  
the correct
order for card shuffling Markov chains where at each time step a  
random card is
picked and put at the top of the deck. Two classes of such shuffles are
addressed, one where the probability that a given card is picked at a  
given
time step depends on its identity, the so-called move-to-front  
scheme, and one
where it depends on its position. For the move-to-front scheme, a  
test function
that is a combination of several different eigenvectors of the  
transition
matrix is used. A general method for finding and using such a test  
function,
under a natural negative dependence condition, is introduced. It is  
shown that
the correct order of the mixing time is given by the biased coupon  
collector's
problem corresponding to the move-to-front scheme at hand. For the  
second
class, a version of Wilson's technique for complex-valued
eigenvalues/eigenvectors is used. Such variants were presented in  
[Random Walks
and Geometry (2004) 515--532] and [Electron. Comm. Probab. 8 (2003)  
77--85].
Here we present another such variant which seems to be the most  
natural one for
this particular class of problems. To find the eigenvalues for the  
general case
of the second class of problems is difficult, so we restrict  
attention to two
special cases. In the first case the card that is moved to the top is  
picked
uniformly at random from the bottom $k=k(n)=o(n)$ cards, and we find  
the lower
bound $(n^3/(4\pi^2k(k-1)))\log n$. Via a coupling, an upper bound  
exceeding
this by only a factor 4 is found. This generalizes Wilson's  
[Electron. Comm.
Probab. 8 (2003) 77--85] result on the Rudvalis shuffle and Goel's  
[Ann. Appl.
Probab. 16 (2006) 30--55] result on top-to-bottom shuffles. In the  
second case
the card moved to the top is, with probability 1/2, the bottom card  
and with
probability 1/2, the card at position $n-k$. Here the lower bound is  
again of
order $(n^3/k^2)\log n$, but in this case this does not seem to be  
tight unless
$k=O(1)$. What the correct order of mixing is in this case is an open  
question.
We show that when $k=n/2$, it is at least $\Theta(n^2)$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607124

---------------------------------------------------------------

4463. PERCOLATION IN A HIERARCHICAL RANDOM GRAPH

D.A. Dawson and L.G. Gorostiza

We study asymptotic percolation as $N\to \infty$ in an infinite  
random graph
${\cal G}_N$ embedded in the hierarchical group of order $N$, with  
connection
probabilities depending on an ultrametric distance between vertices. $ 
{\cal
G}_N$ is structured as a cascade of finite random subgraphs of  
(approximate)
Erd\"os-Renyi type. We give a criterion for percolation, and show that
percolation takes place along giant components of giant components at  
the
previous level in the cascade of subgraphs for all consecutive  
hierarchical
distances. The proof involves a hierarchy of random graphs with  
vertices having
an internal structure and random connection probabilities.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607131

---------------------------------------------------------------

4464. ANNEALING DIFFUSIONS IN A SLOWLY GROWING POTENTIAL

Pierre-Andr\'{e} Zitt (MODAL'X)

We consider a continuous analogue of the simulated annealing  
algorithm in
$R^d$. We prove a convergence result, under hypotheses weaker than  
the usual
ones. In particular, we cover cases where the gradient of the  
potential goes to
zero at infinity. The proof follows an idea of L. Miclo, but we  
replace the
Poincar\'{e} and log-Sobolev inequalities (which do not hold in our  
setting) by
weak Poincar\'{e} inequalities. We estimate the latter with measure- 
capacity
criteria. We show that, despite the absence of a spectral gap, the  
convergence
still holds for the "classical" schedule t = c/ ln(t), if c is bigger  
than a
constant related to the potential.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607147

---------------------------------------------------------------

4465. THE BEAD MODEL & LIMIT BEHAVIORS OF DIMER MODELS

Cedric Boutillier

In this paper, we study the bead model: beads are threaded on a set  
of wires
on the plane represented by parallel straight lines. We add the  
constraint that
between two consecutive beads on a wire, there must be exactly one  
bead on each
neighboring wire. We construct a one-parameter family of Gibbs  
measures on the
bead configurations that are uniform in a certain sense. When endowed  
with one
of these measures, this model is shown to be a determinantal point  
process,
whose marginal on each wire is the sine process (given by eigenvalues  
of large
hermitian random matrices). We prove then that this process appears  
as a limit
of any dimer model on a planar bipartite graph when some weights  
degenerate.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607162

---------------------------------------------------------------

4466. MULTISCALE ANALYSIS OF EXIT DISTRIBUTIONS FOR RANDOM WALKS IN  
RANDOM  ENVIRONMENTS

Erwin Bolthausen and  Ofer Zeitouni

We present a multiscale analysis for the exit measures from large  
balls in
Z^d, d\geq 3, of random walks in certain i.i.d. random environments  
which are
small perturbations of the fixed environment corresponding to simple  
random
walk. Our main assumption is an isotropy assumption on the law of the
environment, introduced by Bricmont and Kupianien. The analysis is  
based on
propagating estimates on the variational distance between the exit  
measure and
that of simple random walk, in addition to estimates on the variational
distance between smoothed versions of these quantities.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607192

---------------------------------------------------------------

4467. DUALITIES FOR MULTI-STATE PROBABILISTIC CELLULAR AUTOMATA

F.J. Lopez and  G. Sanz and  and M. Sobottka

The present work treats dualities for probabilistic cellular automata  
(PCA).
A general result of duality is presented and it is used to study two  
models of
PCA: a multi-opinion noisy general voter model; and a multi-state  
attractive
biased model.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607206

---------------------------------------------------------------

4468. ON TWIN PRIMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HAWKINS RANDOM SIEVE

H. M. Bui and  J. P. Keating

We establish an asymptotic formula for the number of $k$-difference twin
primes associated with the Hawkins random sieve, which is a  
probabilistic model
of the Eratosthenes sieve. The formula for $k = 1$ was obtained by  
Wunderlich
[Acta Arith. \textbf{26} (1974), 59 - 81]. We here extend this to $k  
\geq 2$
and generalize it to all $l$-tuples of Hawkins primes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0607196

---------------------------------------------------------------

4469. TIME CONSISTENT DYNAMIC RISK PROCESSES, CADLAG MODIFICATION

Jocelyne Bion-Nadal

Working in a continuous time setting, we extend to the general case of
dynamic risk measures continuous from above the characterization of time
consistency in terms of ``cocycle condition'' of the minimal penalty  
function.
We prove also the supermartingale property for general time  
consistent dynamic
risk measures. When the time consistent dynamic risk measure  
(continuous from
above) is normalized and non degenerate, we prove, under a mild  
condition, that
the dynamic risk process of any financial instrument has a cadlag  
modification.
This condition is always satisfied in case of continuity from below.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607212

---------------------------------------------------------------

4470. SHAPE OF TERRITORIES IN SOME COMPETING GROWTH MODELS

Jean-Baptiste Gou\'{e}r\'{e} (MAPMO)

We study two competing growth models. Each of these models describes the
spread of a finite number of infections on a graph. Each infection  
evolves like
an (oriented or unoriented) first passage percolation process except  
that once
a vertex is infected by type $i$ infection, it remains of type $i$  
forever. We
give results about the shape of the area ultimately infected by the  
different
infections.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607226

---------------------------------------------------------------

4471. WEIGHTED UNIFORM CONSISTENCY OF KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATORS WITH  
GENERAL  BANDWIDTH SEQUENCES

Julia Dony and  Uwe Einmahl

We are interested in the rate of consistency of kernel density  
estimators
with respect to the weighted sup-norm determined by some unbounded  
weight
function. This problem has been considered by Gine, Koltchinskii and  
Zinn
(2004) for a deterministic bandwidth sequence. We provide "uniform in h"
versions of some of their results, allowing us to determine the  
corresponding
rates of consistency for kernel density estimators where the bandwidth
sequences may depend on the data and/or the location.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0607232

---------------------------------------------------------------

4472. STOCHASTIC PARAMETERIZATION FOR LARGE EDDY SIMULATION OF  
GEOPHYSICAL  FLOWS

Jinqiao Duan and Balasubramanya T. Nadiga

Recently, stochastic, as opposed to deterministic, parameterizations are
being investigated to model the effects of unresolved subgrid scales  
(SGS) in
large eddy simulations (LES) of geophysical flows. We analyse such a  
stochastic
approach in the barotropic vorticity equation to show that (i) if the
stochastic parameterization approximates the actual SGS stresses,  
then the
solution of the stochastic LES approximates the "true" solution at  
appropriate
scale sizes; and that (ii) when the filter scale size approaches  
zero, the
solution of the stochastic LES approaches the true solution.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0607214

---------------------------------------------------------------

4473. THE AXIOMATIC MELTING POT. TEACHING PROBABILITY THEORY IN  
PRAGUE DURING  THE 1930'S

Stepanka Bilova and  Laurent Mazliak and Pavel Sisma

In this paper, we are interested in the teaching of probability  
theory in
Prague and Czechoslovakia, in particular during the 1930's. We focus  
specially
on a textbook, published in Prague by Karel Rychlik in 1938, which uses
Kolmogorov's axiomatization, a very exceptional fact before World War  
II.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.HO/0607217

---------------------------------------------------------------

4474. ON THE SPECTRAL GAP FOR CONVEX DOMAINS

Burgess Davis and Majid Hosseini

We prove the following for a bounded convex planar domain that is  
symmetric
with respect to both coordinate axes. Consider a centered rectangle  
with sides
parallel to the axes that strictly contains the domain. If the domain  
is not a
certain kind of rectangle, the spectral gap of the domain is larger  
than the
spectral gap of the rectangle. We also provide explicit lower bounds  
for the
differnce between the gaps.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.SP/0607219

---------------------------------------------------------------

4475. ON THE SMALL MAXIMAL FLOWS IN FIRST PASSAGE PERCOLATION

Marie Th\'eret

We consider the standard first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^{d} 
$: with
each edge of the lattice we associate a random capacity. We are  
interested in
the maximal flow through a cylinder in this graph. Under some  
assumptions
Kesten proved in 1987 a law of large number for the rescaled flow. We  
give here
a partial answer to one of his questions: the large deviations far  
away below
its typical value are of surface order.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607252

---------------------------------------------------------------

4476. UPPER LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR THE MAXIMAL FLOW IN FIRST PASSAGE  
PERCOLATION

Marie Th\'eret

We consider the standard first passage percolation in $\mathbb{Z}^{d} 
$ for
$d\geq 2$ and we denote by $\phi_{n^{d-1},h(n)}$ the maximal flow  
through the
cylinder $]0,n]^{d-1} \times ]0,h(n)]$ from its bottom to its top.  
Kesten
proved a law of large numbers for the maximal flow in dimension  
three: under
some assumptions, $\phi_{n^{d-1},h(n)} / n^{d-1}$ converges towards a  
constant
$\nu$. We look now at the probability that $\phi_{n^{d-1},h(n)} / n^ 
{d-1}$ is
greater than $\nu + \epsilon$ for some $\epsilon >0$, and we show  
under some
assumptions that this probability decays exponentially fast with the  
volume of
the cylinder. Moreover, we prove a large deviations principle for the  
sequence
$(\phi_{n^{d-1},h(n)} / n^{d-1}, n\in \mathbb{N})$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607253

---------------------------------------------------------------

4477. MOMENT ESTIMATES FOR L\'{E}VY PROCESSES

Harald Luschgy and  Gilles Pag\`{e}s (PMA)

For real L\'{e}vy processes $(X\_t)\_{t \geq 0}$ having no Brownian  
component
with Blumenthal-Getoor index $\beta$, the estimate $\E \sup\_{s \leq  
t} | X\_s
- a\_p s |^p \leq C\_p t$ for every $t \in [0,1]$ and suitable $a\_p  
\in \R$
has been established by Millar \cite{MILL} for $\beta < p \leq 2$  
provided
$X\_1 \in L^p$. We derive extensions of these estimates to the cases  
$p > 2$
and $p \leq\beta$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607282

---------------------------------------------------------------

4478. MONOTONICITY AND NON-MONOTONICITY OF DOMAINS OF STOCHASTIC  
INTEGRAL  OPERATORS

Ken-iti Sato

A L\'evy process on $R^d$ with distribution $\mu$ at time 1 is  
denoted by
$X^{(\mu)}=\{X_t^{(\mu)}\}$. If the improper stochastic integral
$\int_0^{\infty-} f(s)dX_s^{(\mu)}$ of $f$ with respect to $X^{(\mu)} 
$ is
definable, its distribution is denoted by $\Phi_f(\mu)$. The class of  
all
infinitely divisible distributions $\mu$ on $R^d$ such that $\Phi_f 
(\mu)$ is
definable is denoted by $D(\Phi_f)$. The class $D(\Phi_f)$, its two  
extensions
$D_c(\Phi_f)$ and $D_e(\Phi_f)$ (compensated and essential), and its
restriction $D^0(\Phi_f)$ (absolutely definable) are studied. It is  
shown that
$D_e(\Phi_f)$ is monotonic with respect to $f$, which means that $| 
f_2|\leq
|f_1|$ implies $D_e(\Phi_{f_1})\subset D_e(\Phi_{f_2})$. Further, $D^0 
(\Phi_f)$
is monotonic with respect to $f$ but neither $D(\Phi_f)$ nor $D_c 
(\Phi_f)$ is
monotonic with respect to $f$. Furthermore, there exist $\mu$, $f_1$,  
and $f_2$
such that $0\leq f_2\leq f_1$, $\mu\in D(\Phi_{f_1})$, and $\mu\not\in
D(\Phi_{f_2})$. An explicit example for this is related to some  
properties of a
class of martingale L\'evy processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607288

---------------------------------------------------------------

4479. EXAMPLES OF CONDITION (T) FOR DIFFUSIONS IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

Tom Schmitz

With the help of the methods developed in our previous article  
[Schmitz, to
appear in "Annales de l'I.H.P. Prob. & Stat.], we highlight condition  
(T) as a
source of new examples of 'ballistic' diffusions in a random  
environment when
d>1 ('ballistic' means that a strong law of large numbers with non- 
vanishing
limiting velocity holds). In particular we are able to treat the case of
non-constant diffusion coefficients, a feature that causes problems.  
Further we
recover the ballistic character of two important classes of  
diffusions in a
random environment by simply checking condition (T). This not only  
points out
to the broad range of examples where condition (T) can be checked,  
but also
fortifies our belief that condition (T) is a natural contender for the
characterisation of ballistic diffusions in a random environment when  
d>1.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607293

---------------------------------------------------------------

4480. THE SPECTRAL DIMENSION OF GENERIC TREES

Bergfinnur Durhuus and  Thordur Jonsson and John F. Wheater

We define generic ensembles of infinite trees. These are limits as
$N\to\infty$ of ensembles of finite trees of fixed size $N$, defined  
in terms
of a set of branching weights. Among these ensembles are those  
supported on
trees with vertices of a uniformly bounded order. The associated  
probability
measures are supported on trees with a single spine and Hausdorff  
dimension
$d_h =2$. Our main result is that their spectral dimension is $d_s=4/3 
$, and
that the critical exponent of the mass, defined as the exponential  
decay rate
of the two-point function along the spine, is 1/3.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0607020

---------------------------------------------------------------

4481. PROBABILITY DENSITY FOR A HYPERBOLIC SPDE WITH TIME DEPENDENT   
COEFFICIENTS

Marta Sanz-Sol\'e and Iv\'an Torrecilla-Tarantino

We prove the existence and smoothness of density for the solution of a
hyperbolic SPDE with free term coefficients depending on time, under
hypoelliptic non degeneracy conditions. The result extends those  
proved in
Cattiaux and Mesnager, PTRF 2002, to an infinite dimensional setting.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607310

---------------------------------------------------------------

4482. NONINTERSECTING BROWNIAN EXCURSIONS

Craig A. Tracy and Harold Widom

We consider the process of n Brownian excursions conditioned to be
nonintersecting. We show the distribution functions for the top curve  
and the
bottom curve are equal to Fredholm determinants whose kernel we give  
explicity.
In the simplest case, these determinants are expressible in terms of  
Painlev\'e
V functions. We prove that as n tends to infinity the distributional  
limit of
the bottom curve is the Bessel process with parameter 1/2. We apply  
these
results to study the expected area under the bottom and top curves.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607321

---------------------------------------------------------------

4483. THE AVERAGE SIZE OF GIANT COMPONENTS BETWEEN THE DOUBLE-JUMP

Vlady Ravelomanana (LIPN) and  the Projet PAI Amadeus Collaboration

We study the sizes of connected components according to their  
excesses during
a random graph process built with $n$ vertices. The considered model  
is the
continuous one defined in Janson 2000. An ${\ell}$-component is a  
connected
component with ${\ell}$ edges more than vertices. $\ell$ is also  
called the
\textit{excess} of such component. As our main result, we show that  
when $\ell$
and ${n \over \ell}$ are both large, the expected number of vertices  
that ever
belong to an $\ell$-component is about ${12}^{1/3} {\ell}^{1/3} n^ 
{2/3}$. We
also obtain limit theorems for the number of creations of $\ell$- 
components.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.DM/0607057

---------------------------------------------------------------

4484. CREATION AND GROWTH OF COMPONENTS IN A RANDOM HYPERGRAPH PROCESS

Vlady Ravelomanana (LIPN) and  Alphonse Laza Rijamame (D.M.I)

Denote by an $\ell$-component a connected $b$-uniform hypergraph with  
$k$
edges and $k(b-1) - \ell$ vertices. We prove that the expected number of
creations of $\ell$-component during a random hypergraph process  
tends to 1 as
$\ell$ and $b$ tend to $\infty$ with the total number of vertices $n$  
such that
$\ell = o(\sqrt[3]{\frac{n}{b}})$. Under the same conditions, we also  
show that
the expected number of vertices that ever belong to an $\ell$- 
component is
approximately $12^{1/3} (b-1)^{1/3} \ell^{1/3} n^{2/3}$. As an immediate
consequence, it follows that with high probability the largest $\ell$- 
component
during the process is of size $O((b-1)^{1/3} \ell^{1/3} n^{2/3})$.  
Our results
give insight about the size of giant components inside the phase  
transition of
random hypergraphs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cs.DM/0607059

---------------------------------------------------------------

4485. BETA ENSEMBLES, STOCHASTIC AIRY SPECTRUM, AND A DIFFUSION

Jose Ramirez and  Brian Rider and  Balint Virag

Building on earlier work of A. Edelman, I. Dumitriu, and B. Sutton we  
prove
that the largest eigenvalues of the general beta-ensemble of Random  
Matrix
Theory, properly centered and scaled, converge in distribution to the  
law of
the low lying eigenvalues of a random operator of Schroedinger type.  
The latter
is $ -\frac{d^2}{dx^2} + x + \frac{2}{\sqrt{\beta}} b^{\prime}(x)$  
acting on
$L^2(R_+)$ with Dirichlet boundary condition at $x=0$. Here $b^ 
{\prime}(x)$
denotes a standard White Noise and the $\beta > 0$ is that of the  
original
ensemble. Based on this convergence, we provide a new  
characterization of the
Tracy-Widom type laws (for all $\beta$) in terms of the explosion/non- 
explosion
a one-dimensional diffusion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607331

---------------------------------------------------------------

4486. NUMBER VARIANCE FROM A PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE: INFINITE  
SYSTEMS OF  INDEPENDENT BROWNIAN MOTIONS AND SYMMETRIC ALPHA-STABLE  
PROCESSES

Ben Hambly and  Liza Jones

Some probabilistic aspects of the number variance statistic are  
investigated.
Infinite systems of independent Brownian motions and symmetric alpha- 
stable
processes are used to construct new examples of processes which  
exhibit both
divergent and saturating number variance behaviour. We derive a general
expression for the number variance for the spatial particle  
configurations
arising from these systems and this enables us to deduce various  
limiting
distribution results for the fluctuations of the associated counting  
functions.
In particular, knowledge of the number variance allows us to  
introduce and
characterize a novel family of centered, long memory Gaussian  
processes. We
obtain fractional Brownian motion as a weak limit of these constructed
processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607345

---------------------------------------------------------------

4487. ON THE (AB)USE OF STATISTICS IN THE LEGAL CASE AGAINST THE  
NURSE LUCIA  DE B

Ronald Meester and  Marieke Collins and  Richard Gill and Michiel  
van  Lambalgen

We discuss the statistics involved in the legal case of the nurse  
Lucia de B.
in The Netherlands, 2003-2004. Lucia de B. witnessed an unusually  
high number
of incidents during her shifts, and the question arose as to whether  
this could
be attributed to chance. We discuss and criticise the statistical  
analysis of
Henk Elffers, a statistician who was asked by the prosecutor to write a
statistical report on the issue. We discuss several other  
possibilities for
statistical analysis. Our main point is that several statistical  
models exist,
leading to very different predictions, or perhaps different answers to
different questions. There is no such thing as a `best' statistical  
analysis.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0607340

---------------------------------------------------------------

4488. NON PARAMETRIC THRESHOLD ESTIMATION FOR MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC  
DIFFUSION  COEFFICIENTS AND JUMPS

Cecilia Mancini

We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We  
devise a
technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for  
identifying
the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold  
occurred. The
technique allows also jump size estimation. We prove the consistency  
of a
nonparametric estimator of the integrated infinitesimal variance of  
the process
continuous part when the jump component with infinite activity is  
Levy. Central
limit results are proved in the case where the jump component has finite
activity. Some simulations illustrate the reliability of the  
methodology in
finite samples.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0607378

---------------------------------------------------------------

4489. PREDICTABILITY OF THE BURGERS DYNAMICS UNDER MODEL UNCERTAINTY

Dirk Bl\"omker and Jinqiao Duan

Complex systems may be subject to various uncertainties. A great  
effort has
been concentrated on predicting the dynamics under uncertainty in  
initial
conditions. In the present work, we consider the well-known Burgers  
equation
with random boundary forcing or with random body forcing. Our goal is to
attempt to understand the stochastic Burgers dynamics by predicting or
estimating the solution processes in various diagnostic metrics, such  
as mean
length scale, correlation function and mean energy. First, for the  
linearized
model, we observe that the important statistical quantities like mean  
energy or
correlation functions are the same for the two types of random  
forcing, even
though the solutions behave very differently. Second, for the full  
nonlinear
model, we estimate the mean energy for various types of random body  
forcing,
highlighting the different impact on the overall dynamics of space- 
time white
noises, trace class white-in-time and colored-in-space noises, point  
noises,
additive noises or multiplicative noises.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CA/0607357

---------------------------------------------------------------

4490. INVARIANT MANIFOLD REDUCTION FOR STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

Aijun Du and Jinqiao Duan

Invariant manifolds facilitate the understanding of nonlinear stochastic
dynamics. When an invariant manifold is represented approximately by  
a graph
for example, the whole stochastic dynamical system may be reduced or  
restricted
to this manifold. This reduced system may provide valuable dynamical
information for the original system. The authors have derived an  
invariant
manifold reduction or restriction principle for systems of  
Stratonovich or Ito
stochastic differential equations.
   Two concepts of invariance are considered for invariant manifolds.
   The first invariance concept is in the framework of cocycles -- an  
invariant
manifold being a random set. The dynamical reduction is achieved by
investigating random center manifolds.
   The second invariance concept is in the sense of almost sure -- an  
invariant
manifold being a deterministic set which is not necessarily  
attracting. The
restriction of the original stochastic system on this deterministic  
local
invariant manifold is still a stochastic system but with reduced  
dimension.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0607366

---------------------------------------------------------------

4491. COUNTING FACES OF RANDOMLY-PROJECTED POLYTOPES WHEN THE  
PROJECTION  RADICALLY LOWERS DIMENSION

David L. Donoho and Jared Tanner

This paper develops asymptotic methods to count faces of random
high-dimensional polytopes. Beyond its intrinsic interest, our  
conclusions have
surprising implications - in statistics, probability, information  
theory, and
signal processing - with potential impacts in practical subjects like  
medical
imaging and digital communications. Three such implications concern:  
convex
hulls of Gaussian point clouds, signal recovery from random  
projections, and
how many gross errors can be efficiently corrected from Gaussian error
correcting codes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.MG/0607364

---------------------------------------------------------------

4492. THE PROBABILITY OF CHOOSING PRIMITIVE SETS

Sergi Elizalde and Kevin Woods

We generalize a theorem of Nymann that the density of points in Z^d  
that are
visible from the origin is 1/zeta(d), where zeta(a) is the Riemann zeta
function 1/1^a + 1/2^a + 1/3^a + ...
   A subset S of Z^d is called primitive if it is a Z-basis for the  
lattice
composed of the integer points in the R-span of S, or, equivalently,  
if S can
be completed to a Z-basis of Z^d. We prove that if m points in Z^d  
are chosen
uniformly and independently at random from a large box, then as the  
size of the
box goes to infinity, the probability that the points form a  
primitive set
approaches 1/[\zeta(d)\zeta(d-1)...zeta(d-m+1)].


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NT/0607390

---------------------------------------------------------------

4493. COALESCENT TREE BASED FUNCTIONAL REPRESENTATIONS FOR SOME  
FEYNMAN-KAC  PARTICLE MODELS

Pierre Del Moral (JAD) and  Fr\'{e}d\'{e}ric Patras (JAD) and   
Sylvain  Rubenthaler (JAD)

We design a theoretic tree-based functional representation of a class of
Feynman-Kac particle distributions, including an extension of the  
Wick product
formula to interacting particle systems. These weak expansions rely  
on an
original combinatorial, and permutation group analysis of a special  
class of
forests. They provide refined non asymptotic propagation of chaos type
properties, as well as sharp $\LL\_p$-mean error bounds, and laws of  
large
numbers for $U$-statistics. Applications to particle interpretations  
of the top
eigenvalues, and the ground states of Schr\"{o}dinger semigroups are  
also
discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607453

---------------------------------------------------------------

4494. ASYMPTOTIC ENTROPY AND GREEN SPEED FOR RANDOM WALKS ON GROUPS

S\'{e}bastien Blach\`{e}re (LATP) and  Peter Ha\"{i}ssinsky (LATP)  
and  Pierre  Mathieu (LATP)

We study asymptotic properties of the Green metric associated to  
random walks
on discrete transient groups. We prove that the rate of escape of the  
random
walk computed in the Green metric equals its asymptotic entropy. Two  
proofs are
given. One relies on integral representations of both quantities with  
the
extended Martin kernel. The other proof (valid only when the volume  
growth of
the group is superpolynomial) relies on a version of the so called  
fundamental
inequality (relating the rate of escape, the entropy and the  
logarithmic volume
growth) extended to random walk with unbounded support.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607467

---------------------------------------------------------------

4495. THE MOMENT PROBLEM WITH BOUNDED DENSITY

Jean B. Lasserre

Let $\mu$ be a given Borel measure on $\K\subseteq\R^n$ and let
$y=(y_\alpha)$, $\alpha\in\N^n$, be a given sequence. We provide several
conditions linking $y$ and the moment sequence $z=(z_\alpha)$ of $\mu 
$, for $y$
to be the moment sequence of a Borel measure $\nu$ on $\K$ which is  
absolutely
continuous with respect to $\mu$ and such that its density is in
$L_\infty(\K,\mu)$. The conditions are necessary and sufficient if $\K 
$ is a
compact basic semi-algebraic set, and sufficient if $\K\equiv\R^n$.  
Moreover,
arbitrary finitely many of these conditions can be checked by solving  
either a
semidefinite program or a linear program with a single variable


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.FA/0607463

---------------------------------------------------------------

4496. ZEROS OF RANDOM ANALYTIC FUNCTIONS

Manjunath Krishnapur

The dominant theme of this thesis is that random matrix valued analytic
functions, generalizing both random matrices and random analytic  
functions, for
many purposes can (and perhaps should) be effectively studied in that  
level of
generality. We study zeros of random analytic functions in one complex
variable. It is known that there is a one parameter family of  
Gaussian analytic
functions with zero sets that are stationary in each of the three  
symmetric
spaces, namely the plane, the sphere and the unit disk, under the  
corresponding
group of isometries. We show a way to generate non Gaussian random  
analytic
functions whose zero sets are also stationary in the same domains.  
There are
particular cases where the exact distribution of the zero set turns  
out to
belong to an important class of point processes known as  
determinantal point
processes. Apart from questions regarding the exact distribution of  
zero sets,
we also study certain asymptotic properties. We show asymptotic  
normality for
smooth statistics applied to zeros of these random analytic  
functions. Lastly,
we present some results on certain large deviation problems for the  
zeros of
the planar and hyperbolic Gaussian analytic functions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607504

---------------------------------------------------------------

4497. NONEQUILIBRIUM DENSITY FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE ZERO RANGE PROCESS  
WITH  COLOUR

Hanna Jankowski

We examine the fluctuations of the empirical density measure for the  
colour
version of the symmetric nearest neighbour zero range particle  
systems in
dimension one. We show that the weak limit of these fluctuations is the
solution of a system of coupled generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck  
processes. We
also discuss how this result may be used to prove a central limit  
theorem for
the tagged particle on the level of finite dimensional distributions,  
and
identify the limiting variance. This is the central limit theorem  
associated to
propagation of chaos for this interacting particle system.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607505

---------------------------------------------------------------

4498. IN-DEGREE AND PAGERANK OF WEB PAGES: WHY DO THEY FOLLOW SIMILAR  
POWER  LAWS?

N. Litvak and  W.R.W. Scheinhardt and Y. Volkovich

The PageRank is a popularity measure designed by Google to rank Web  
pages.
Experiments confirm that the PageRank obeys a `power law' with the same
exponent as the In-Degree. This paper presents a novel mathematical  
model that
explains this phenomenon. The relation between the PageRank and In- 
Degree is
modelled through a stochastic equation, which is inspired by the  
original
definition of the PageRank, and is analogous to the well-known  
distributional
identity for the busy period in the M/G/1 queue. Further, we employ  
the theory
of regular variation and Tauberian theorems to analytically prove  
that the tail
behavior of the PageRank and the In-Degree differ only by a  
multiplicative
factor, for which we derive a closed-form expression. Our analytical  
results
are in good agreement with experimental data.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607507

---------------------------------------------------------------

4499. LARGE DEVIATION PRINCIPLES FOR EMPIRICAL MEASURES OF COLOURED  
RANDOM  GRAPHS

Kwabena Doku-Amponsah and Peter Morters

For any finite coloured graph we define the empirical neighbourhood  
measure,
which counts the number of vertices of a given colour connected to a  
given
number of vertices of each colour, and the empirical pair measure,  
which counts
the number of edges connecting each pair of colours. For a class of  
sparse
coloured random graphs, we prove large deviation principles for these  
empirical
measures in the weak topology. The rate functions governing our large  
deviation
principles can be expressed explicitly in terms of relative  
entropies. We
derive a large deviation principle for the degree distribution of  
Erdos-Renyi
graphs near criticality.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607545

---------------------------------------------------------------

4500. FLUCTUATIONS OF THE FRONT IN A ONE DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF X+Y-->2X

Francis Comets and  Jeremy Quastel and  Alejandro Ramirez

We consider a model of the reaction $X+Y\to 2X$ on the integer  
lattice in
which $Y$ particles do not move while $X$ particles move as independent
continuous time, simple symmetric random walks. $Y$ particles are  
transformed
instantaneously to $X$ particles upon contact. We start with a fixed  
number
$a\ge 1$ of $Y$ particles at each site to the right of the origin,  
and define a
class of configurations of the $X$ particles to the left of the  
origin having a
finite $l^1$ norm with a specified exponential weight. Starting from any
configuration of $X$ particles to the left of the origin within such  
a class,
we prove a central limit theorem for the position of the rightmost  
visited site
of the $X$ particles.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607549

---------------------------------------------------------------

4501. ON CHARACTERISATION OF MARKOV PROCESSES VIA MARTINGALE PROBLEMS

Abhay G Bhatt and  Rajeeva L Karandikar and B V Rao

It is well-known that well-posedness of a martingale problem in the  
class of
continuous (or r.c.l.l.) solutions enables one to construct the  
associated
transition probability functions. We extend this result to the case  
when the
martingale problem is well-posed in the class of solutions which are  
continuous
in probability. This extension is used to improve on a criterion for a
probability measure to be invariant for the semigroup associated with  
the
Markov process. We also give examples of martingale problems that are
well-posed in the class of solutions which are continuous in  
probability but
for which no r.c.l.l. solution exists.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607613

---------------------------------------------------------------

4502. COMPUTING STRATEGIES FOR ACHIEVING ACCEPTABILITY

Soumik Pal

We consider a trader who wants to direct his portfolio towards a set of
acceptable wealths given by a convex risk measure. We propose a black- 
box
algorithm, whose inputs are the joint law of stock prices and the  
convex risk
measure, and whose outputs are the numerical values of initial capital
requirement and the functional form of a trading strategy to achieve
acceptability. We also prove optimality of the obtained capital.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607617

---------------------------------------------------------------

4503. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR RANDOM PARTITIONS UNDER THE  
PLANCHEREL MEASURE

L.V. Bogachev and Z.G. Su

In this work, we obtain the central limit theorem for fluctuations of  
Young
diagrams around their limit shape in the bulk of the "spectrum" of  
partitions
of a large integer n (under the Plancherel measure). More  
specifically, we show
that, under the suitable normalization (growing as the square root of  
log n),
the corresponding random process converges, in the sense of finite  
dimensional
distributions, to a Gaussian process with independent values. The  
proof uses
heavily the determinantal structure of the correlation functions and  
is based
on the application of the Costin-Lebowitz-Soshnikov central limit  
theorem. At
the spectrum edges, the fluctuation asymptotics is expressed in terms  
of the
largest members of the Airy ensemble; in particular, at the upper  
edge the
limit distribution appears to be discrete (without any  
normalization). These
results admit an elegant symmetric reformulation under the rotation  
of Young
diagrams by 45 degrees, where the normalization no longer depends on the
location of the spectrum point. We also discuss the link of our  
central limit
theorem with an earlier result by S.V. Kerov on the convergence to a
generalized Gaussian process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607635

---------------------------------------------------------------

4504. FREQUENT POINTS FOR RANDOM WALKS IN TWO DIMENSIONS

Richard F. Bass and  Jay Rosen

For a symmetric random walk in $Z^2$ which does not necessarily have  
bounded
jumps we study those points which are visited an unusually large  
number of
times. We prove the analogue of the Erd\H{o}s-Taylor conjecture and  
obtain the
asymptotics for the number of visits to the most visited site. We  
also obtain
the asymptotics for the number of points which are visited very  
frequently by
time $n$. Among the tools we use are Harnack inequalities and Green's  
function
estimates for random walks with unbounded jumps; some of these are of
independent interest.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607636

---------------------------------------------------------------

4505. PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION FOR THE STANDARD AND GEOMETRIC TELEGRAPH  
PROCESS  OBSERVED AT DISCRETE TIMES

Alessandro De Gregorio and  Stefano M. Iacus

The telegraph process $X(t)$, $t>0$, (Goldstein, 1951) and the geometric
telegraph process $S(t) = s_0 \exp\{(\mu -\frac12\sigma^2)t + \sigma X 
(t)\}$
with $\mu$ a known constant and $\sigma>0$ a parameter are supposed  
to be
observed at $n+1$ equidistant time points $t_i=i\Delta_n,i=0,1,..., n 
$. For
both models $\lambda$, the underlying rate of the Poisson process, is a
parameter to be estimated. In the geometric case, also $\sigma>0$ has  
to be
estimated. We propose different estimators of the parameters and we  
investigate
their performance under the high frequency asymptotics, i.e. $ 
\Delta_n \to 0$,
$n\Delta = T<\infty$ as $n \to \infty$, with $T>0$ fixed. The process  
$X(t)$ in
non markovian, non stationary and not ergodic thus we use approximation
arguments to derive estimators. Given the complexity of the equations  
involved
only estimators on the first model can be studied analytically.  
Therefore, we
run an extensive Monte Carlo analysis to study the performance of the  
proposed
estimators also for small sample size $n$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0607633

---------------------------------------------------------------

4506. A PERCOLATING HARD SPHERE MODEL

Codina Cotar and  Alexander E. Holroyd and David Revelle

Given a homogeneous Poisson point process in R^d, Haggstrom and  
Meester asked
whether it is possible to place spheres (of differing radii) centred  
at the
points, in a translation-invariant way, so that the spheres do not  
overlap but
there is an unbounded component of touching spheres. We prove that  
the answer
is yes in sufficiently high dimension.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607645

---------------------------------------------------------------

4507. ON THE LARGE SCALE BEHAVIOR OF SUPER-BROWNIAN MOTION IN THREE  
DIMENSIONS  WITH A SINGLE POINT SOURCE

Klaus Fleischmann and  Carl Mueller and  and Pascal Vogt

In a recent work, Fleischmann and Mueller (2004) showed the existence  
of a
super-Brownian motion in R^d, d=2,3, with extra birth at the origin.  
Their
construction made use of an analytical approach based on the fundamental
solution of the heat equation with a one point potential worked out by
Albeverio et al. (1995). The present note addresses two properties of  
this
measure-valued process in the three-dimensional case, namely the  
scaling of the
process and the large scale behavior of its mean.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607667

---------------------------------------------------------------

4508. $L^P$ MODULI OF CONTINUITY OF GAUSSIAN PROCESSES AND LOCAL  
TIMES OF  SYMMETRIC L\'EVY PROCESSES

Michael B. Marcus and Jay Rosen

Let $X=\{X(t), t\in R_+\}$ be a real valued symmetric L\'evy process  
with
continuous local times $\{L^x_t,(t,x)\in R_+\times R\}$ and  
characteristic
function $E e^{i\lambda X(t)} = e^{-t\psi(\lambda)} $. Let \sigma^2_0 
(x-y) =
(4/\pi)\int_0^\infty \sin^2(\lambda (x-y)/2) / \psi(\lambda) d 
\lambda . If
$\sigma^2_0(h)$ is concave, and satisfies some addtional very weak  
regularity
conditions, then for any $ p\ge 1$, and all $t\in R_+$ \[ \lim_{h 
\downarrow 0}
\int_{a}^{b} \bigg|{L^{x+h}_{t} -L^{x}_{t}\over\sigma_0(h)}\bigg|^p dx
=2^pE|\eta|^p \int_a^b |L^{x}_{t}|^{p/2} dx \] for all $a,b $ in the  
extended
real line almost surely, and also in $L^m$, $m\ge 1$. (Here $\eta$ is  
a normal
random variable with mean zero and variance one.) This result is  
obtained via
the Eisenbaum Isomorphism Theorem and depends on the related result for
Gaussian processes with stationary increments, $\{G(x),x\in R^1\}$,  
for which
$E(G(x)-G(y))^2=\sigma_0^2(x-y)$; \[ \lim_{h\to 0}
\int_a^b\bigg|\frac{G(x+h)-G(x)}{\sigma_0(h)}\bigg|^p dx =E|\eta |^p  
(b-a) \]
for all $a,b\in R^1$, almost surely.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607672

---------------------------------------------------------------

4509. THE MODULO 1 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM AND BENFORD'S LAW FOR PRODUCTS

Steven J. Miller and  Mark J. Nigrini

We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the sum of M  
independent
continuous random variables modulo 1 to converge to the uniform  
distribution in
L^1([0,1]), and discuss generalizations to discrete random variables. A
consequence is that if X_1, ..., X_M are independent continuous random
variables with densities f_1, ..., f_M, for any base B as M \to  
\infty for many
choices of the densities the distribution of the digits of X_1 * ...  
* X_M
converges to Benford's law base B. The rate of convergence can be  
quantified in
terms of the Fourier coefficients of the densities, and provides an  
explanation
for the prevalence of Benford behavior in many diverse systems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607686

---------------------------------------------------------------

4510. ASYMPTOTIC RESULTS FOR EMPIRICAL MEASURES OF WEIGHTED SUMS OF   
INDEPENDENT RANDOM VARIABLES

Bernard Bercu and Wlodzimierz Bryc

We prove that if a rectangular matrix with uniformly small entries and
approximately orthogonal rows is applied to the independent  
standardized random
variables with uniformly bounded third moments, then the empirical  
CDF of the
resulting partial sums converges to the normal CDF with probability  
one. This
implies almost sure convergence of empirical periodograms, almost sure
convergence of spectra of circulant and reverse circulant matrices,  
and almost
sure convergence of the CDF's generated from independent random  
variables by
independent random orthogonal matrices.
   For special trigonometric matrices, the speed of the almost sure  
convergence
is described by the normal approximation and by the large deviation  
principle.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607687

---------------------------------------------------------------

4511. STOCHASTIC STOKES' DRIFT WITH INERTIA

Kalvis M. Jansons

We consider both the effect of particle inertia on stochastic Stokes'  
drift,
and also a related process which could be considered as a crude model of
stochastic Stokes' drift driven by an eddy diffusivity. In the  
latter, the
stochastic forcing is a stable OU process rather than Brownian  
motion. We show
that the eddy Stokes' drift velocity has a peak at a non-zero value  
of the
correlation time-scale for particles that have the same (limiting)  
diffusivity.
For both of the models considered, this study shows that not only can
stochastic Stokes' drift be used to sort particles with different
diffusivities, but also it can be used to sort particles of the same
diffusivities but with different particle masses or correlation time- 
scales.
This effect may be important in particle sorting applications.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607707

---------------------------------------------------------------

4512. SOME PROPERTIES OF ANNULUS SLE

Dapeng Zhan

An annulus SLE$_\kappa$ trace tends to a single point on the target  
circle,
and the density function of the end point satisfies some differential  
equation.
Some martingales or local martingales are found for annulus SLE$_4$,  
SLE$_8$
and SLE$_{8/3}$. From the local martingale for annulus SLE$_4$ we find a
candidate of discrete lattice model that may have annulus SLE$_4$ as its
scaling limit. The local martingale for annulus SLE$_{8/3}$ is  
similar to those
for chordal and radial SLE$_{8/3}$. But it seems that annulus SLE$_ 
{8/3}$ does
not satisfy the restriction property.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0607720

---------------------------------------------------------------

4513. INEQUALITIES RELATED TO THE ERROR FUNCTION

Omran Kouba

In this note we consider inequalities involving the error function $ 
\phi$.
Our methodes give new proofs of some known inequalities of Komatsu,  
and of
Szarek and Werner, and also produce two families of inequalities that  
give
upper and lower bounds for $\phi$. Moreover the continued fractions  
expansion
of $\phi$ is obtained.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CA/0607694





-----------------------------------
Stefano M. Iacus
Department of Economics,
Business and Statistics
University of Milan
Via Conservatorio, 7
I-20123 Milan - Italy
Ph.: +39 02 50321 461
Fax: +39 02 50321 505
http://www.economia.unimi.it/iacus
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
------------
Please don't send me Word or PowerPoint attachments if not
absolutely necessary. See:
http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/no-word-attachments.html




More information about the Pas mailing list