[PAS] Probability Abstract 96

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Thu Mar 1 08:44:49 CET 2007


Probability Abstracts 96
This document contains abstracts 5093-5304 from
Jan-1-2007 to Feb-28-2007.
They have been mailed on March 1st, 2007.

This letter can be also found on line at
http://lists.imstat.org/PAS/Letters/letter_96.shtml

Please notice that since february 2007,  PAS web site and
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5093. EXPECTED NUMBER OF SLOPE CROSSINGS OF CERTAIN GAUSSIAN RANDOM   
POLYNOMIALS

S. Rezakhah and S. Shemehsavar

Let $Q_n(x)=\sum_{i=0}^{n} A_{i}x^{i}$ be a random polynomial where the
coefficients
   $A_0,A_1,... $ form a sequence of centered Gaussian random variables.
Moreover, assume that the increments $\Delta_j=A_j-A_{j-1}$,  
$j=0,1,2,...$ are
independent, assuming $A_{-1}=0$. The coefficients can be considered  
as $n$
consecutive observations of a Brownian motion. We study the number of  
times
that such a random polynomial crosses a line which is not necessarily  
parallel
to the x-axis. More precisely we obtain the asymptotic behavior of  
the expected
number of real roots of the equation $Q_n(x)=Kx$, for the cases that  
$K$ is any
non-zero real constant $K=o(n^{1/4})$, and $K=o(n^{1/2})$ separately.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701019

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5094. TILTED STABLE SUBORDINATORS, GAMMA TIME CHANGES AND OCCUPATION  
TIME OF  RAYS BY BESSEL SPIDERS

Lancelot F. James and Marc Yor

We exhibit, in the form of some identities in law, some connections  
between
tilted stable subordinators, time-changed by independent Gamma  
processes and
the occupation times of Bessel spiders, or their bridges. These  
identities in
law are then explained thanks to excursion theory.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701049

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5095. INTRACTABILITY RATE OF APPROXIMATION PROBLEM FOR RANDOM FIELDS  
IN  INCREASING DIMENSION

N. Serdyukova

The behavior of average approximation cardinality for d-parametric  
random
fields of tensor product type is investigated. The exact rate of  
dimension
curse is obtained.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701058

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5096. GOODNESS OF FIT TEST FOR ERGODIC DIFFUSION PROCESSES

Ilia Negri and  Yoichi Nishiyama

A goodness of fit test for the drift coefficient of an ergodic diffusion
process is presented. The test is based on the score marked empirical  
process.
The weak convergence of the proposed test statistic is studied under  
the null
hypotheses and it is proved that the limit process is a continuous  
Gaussian
process. The structure of its covariance function allows to calculate  
the limit
distribution and it turns out that it is a function of a standard  
Brownian
motion and so exact reject regions can be constructed. The proposed  
test is
asymptotically distribution free and it is consistent under any  
simple fixed
alternative.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701022

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5097. A LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS FOR AN INTERACTING PARTICLE SYSTEM WITH  
CONFINING  POTENTIAL

Matteo Ortisi (Dept. of Mathematics and  University of Milano)

In this paper we consider an interacting particle system modeled as a  
system
of $N$ stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions  
with a
drift term including a confining potential acting on each particle,  
and an
interaction potential modeling the interaction among all the  
particles of the
system. The limiting behavior as the size $N$ grows to infinity is  
achieved as
a law of large numbers for the empirical process associated with the
interacting particle system


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701095

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5098. COMPRESSED SENSING AND REDUNDANT DICTIONARIES

Holger Rauhut and  Karin Schnass and  Pierre Vandergheynst

This article extends the concept of compressed sensing to signals  
that are
not sparse in an orthonormal basis but rather in a redundant  
dictionary. It is
shown that a matrix, which is a composition of a random matrix of  
certain type
and a deterministic dictionary, has small restricted isometry  
constants. Thus,
signals that are sparse with respect to the dictionary can be  
recovered via
Basis Pursuit from a small number of random measurements. Further,  
thresholding
is investigated as recovery algorithm for compressed sensing and  
conditions are
provided that guarantee reconstruction with high probability. The  
different
schemes are compared by numerical experiments.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701131

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5099. SHORT-LENGTH ROUTES IN LOW-COST NETWORKS VIA POISSON LINE PATTERNS

David J. Aldous and Wilfrid S. Kendall

In designing a network to link n cities in a square of area n, one  
might be
guided by the following two desiderata. First, the total network  
length should
not be much greater than the length of the shortest network  
connecting all
cities. Second, the average route length (taken over source- 
destination pairs)
should not be much greater than the average straight-line distance.  
How small
can we make these two differences? For typical configurations the  
shortest
network length is order n and the average straight-line distance is  
order
n^1/2, so it seems implausible that one can construct a network in  
which the
first difference is o(n) and the second difference is o(n^1/2). But  
in fact one
can do better: for an arbitrary configuration one can construct a  
network where
the first difference is o(n) and the second difference is almost as  
small as
O(log n). The construction is conceptually simple: over the minimum- 
length
connected network (Steiner tree) superimpose a sparse stationary and  
isotropic
Poisson line process. The key ingredient is a new result about the  
Poisson line
process. Consider two points at distance r apart, and delete from the  
line
process all lines which separate these two points. The resulting  
pattern of
lines partitions the plane into cells; the cell containing the two  
points has
mean boundary length 2r + C log r. Turning to lower bounds we show  
that, under
a weak equidistribution assumption, if the first difference is o(n)  
then the
second difference cannot be O(sqrt(log n)).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701140

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5100. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR LS ESTIMATOR IN SIMPLE LINEAR EV   
REGRESSION MODELS

Yu Miao and  Guangyu Yang and Luming Shen

In this paper, we obtain the central limit theorems for LS estimator in
simple linear errors-in-variables (EV) regression models under some mild
conditions. And we also show that those conditions are necessary in  
some sense.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701162

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5101. THE LAW OF THE ITERATED LOGARITHM FOR ADDITIVE FUNCTIONALS OF  
MARKOV  CHAINS

Yu Miao and  Guangyu Yang

In the paper, the law of the iterated logarithm for additive  
functionals of
Markov chains is obtained under some weak conditions, which are  
weaker than the
conditions of invariance principle of additive functionals of Markov  
chains in
M. Maxwell and M. Woodroofe (2000). The main technique is the martingale
argument and the theory of fractional coboundaries.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701167

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5102. ONE DIMENSIONAL NEAREST NEIGHBOR EXCLUSION PROCESSES IN  
INHOMOGENEOUS  AND RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS

Lincoln Chayes and Thomas M. Liggett

The processes described in the title always have reversible stationary
distributions. In this paper, we give sufficient conditions for the  
existence
of, and for the nonexistence of, nonreversible stationary  
distributions. In the
case of an i.i.d. environment, these combine to give a necessary and  
sufficient
condition for the existence of nonreversible stationary distributions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701180

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5103. A NOTE FOR EXTENSION OF ALMOST SURE CENTRAL LIMIT THEORY

Yu Miao and  Guangyu Yang

H\"ormann (2006) gave an extension of almost sure central limit  
theorem for
bounded Lipschitz 1 function. In this paper, we show that his result  
of almost
sure central limit theorem is also hold for any Lipschitz function under
stronger conditions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701183

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5104. ON A TYPE SOBOLEV INEQUALITY AND ITS APPLICATIONS

Witold Bednorz

In the paper we pursue the analysis from the section 5 of the  
Talagrand's
paper "Sample boundedness of stochastic processes under increment  
conditions."
Ann. Probab. 18, No. 1, 1-49. In particular we give the proof of some  
Sobolev
Inequality and then apply it to obtain if and only if condition for all
processes with bounded icrements to have bounded samples. The  
processes are
defined on a compact, concave subspaces of $\R^n$ with a metric
$d(s,t)=\eta(||s-t||)$, where $\eta$ is concave and $||.||$ is a norm on
$\R^n$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701191

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5105. DIFFUSION LIMITED AGGREGATION ON A CYLINDER

Itai Benjamini and  Ariel Yadin

We consider the DLA process on a cylinder $G \times \N$. It is shown  
that
this process ``grows arms'', provided that the base graph $G$ has  
small enough
mixing time. Specifically, if the mixing time of $G$ is at most
$\log^{(2-\eps)}\abs{G}$, the time it takes the cluster to reach the  
$m$-th
layer of the cylinder is at most of order $m \cdot \frac{\abs{G}}{\log 
\log
\abs{G}}$. In particular we get examples of infinite Cayley graphs of  
degree 5,
for which the DLA cluster on these graphs has arbitrarily small density.
   In addition, we provide an upper bound on the rate at which the  
``arms''
grow. This bound is valid for a large class of base graphs $G$,  
including
discrete tori of dimension at least 3.
   It is also shown that for any base graph $G$, the density of the  
DLA process
on a $G$-cylinder is related to the rate at which the arms of the  
cluster grow.
This implies, that for any vertex transitive $G$, the density of DLA  
on a
$G$-cylinder is bounded by 2/3.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701201

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5106. ON THE CONSTRUCTIONS OF THE SKEW BROWNIAN MOTION

Antoine Lejay

This article summarizes the various ways one may use to construct the  
Skew
Brownian motion, and shows their connections. Recent applications of  
this
process in modelling and numerical simulation motivates this survey.  
This
article ends with a brief account of related results, extensions and
applications of the Skew Brownian motion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701219

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5107. A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL OF A POLLING SYSTEM WITH PARAMETER  
REGENERATION

Iain MacPhee and  Mikhail Menshikov and  Dimitri Petritis and  and  
Serguei Popov

We study a model of a polling system i.e. a collection of $d$ queues  
with a
single server that switches from queue to queue. The service time  
distribution
and arrival rates change randomly every time a queue is emptied. This  
model is
mapped to a mathematically equivalent model of a random walk with  
random choice
of transition probabilities, a model which is of independent  
interest. All our
results are obtained using methods from the constructive theory of  
Markov
chains. We determine conditions for the existence of polynomial  
moments of
hitting times for the random walk. An unusual phenomenon of thickness  
of the
region of null recurrence for both the random walk and the queueing  
model is
also proved.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701226

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5108. FUNCTIONAL CLT FOR RANDOM WALK AMONG BOUNDED RANDOM CONDUCTANCES

Marek Biskup and  Timothy M. Prescott

We consider the nearest-neighbor simple random walk on $\Z^d$, $d\ge2$,
driven by a field of i.i.d. random nearest-neighbor conductances
$\omega_{xy}\in[0,1]$. Apart from the requirement that the bonds with  
positive
conductances percolate, we pose no restriction on the law of the $ 
\omega$'s. We
prove that, for a.e. realization of the environment, the path  
distribution of
the walk converges weakly to that of non-degenerate, isotropic  
Brownian motion.
This holds despite the fact that the local CLT may fail in $d\ge5$  
due to
anomalously slow decay of the probability that the walk returns to  
the starting
point at a given time (cf math.PR/0611666).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701248

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5109. DIFFUSIVITY IN ONE-DIMENSIONAL GENERALIZED MOTT VARIABLE-RANGE  
HOPPING  MODELS

Pietro Caputo and Alessandra Faggionato

We consider random walks in random environment which are generalized  
versions
of well known effective models for Mott variable--range hopping. We  
study the
homogenized diffusion constant of the random walk in the one-- 
dimensional case.
We prove various estimates on the the low--temperature behavior which  
confirm
and extend previous work by physicists.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701253

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5110. PRECISE LOGARITHMIC ASYMPTOTICS FOR THE RIGHT TAILS OF SOME  
LIMIT RANDOM  VARIABLES FOR RANDOM TREES

James Allen Fill and  Svante Janson

For certain random variables that arise as limits of functionals of  
random
finite trees, we obtain precise asymptotics for the logarithm of the  
right-hand
tail. Our results are based on the facts (i) that the random  
variables we study
can be represented as functionals of a Brownian excursion and (ii)  
that a large
deviation principle with good rate function is known explicitly for  
Brownian
excursion. Examples include limit distributions of the total path  
length and of
the Wiener index in conditioned Galton-Watson trees (also known as  
simply
generated trees). In the case of Wiener index (where we recover  
results proved
by Svante Janson and Philippe Chassaing by a different method) and  
for some
other examples, a key constant is expressed as the solution to a certain
optimization problem, but the constant's precise value remains unknown.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701259

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5111. FLUCTUATIONS OF LEVY PROCESSES AND SCATTERING THEORY

Sonia Fourati

We establish a connection between the scattering inverse problem and the
determination of the distribution of the position of the Levy process  
at the
exit time of a bounded interval in term of its Levy exponent.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701271

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5112. AN IMPROVEMENT OF A RESULT ON SMOLYANOV-WEIZSAECKER SURFACE  
MEASURES

Evelina Shamarova

Let $M$ be a compact Riemannian manifold without boundary isometrically
embedded into $\Rnu^m$, $\W^x_{M,t}$ be the distribution of a  
Brownian bridge
starting at $x\in M$ and returning to $M$ at time $t$. Let $Q_t: \C 
(M) \to
\C(M)$, $(Q_t f)(x)=\int_{\C([0,1],\Rnu^m)}f(\om(t)) \W^x_{M,t}(d\om) 
$, and let
$\mc P = \{0=t_0 < t_1 < ... < t_n=t\}$ be a partition of $[0,t]$. It  
was shown
in a paper by O. G. Smolyanov, H. v. Weizsaecker, and O. Wittich that
$Q_{t_1-t_0}... Q_{t_n-t_{n-1}} f \to e^{-t\frac{\lap_M}2}f, \text 
{as} |\mc
P|\to 0$ in $\C(M)$. Taking into consideration integral representations:
$(Q_{t_1-t_0}... Q_{t_n-t_{n-1}} f)(x)=\int_M q_{_{\mc P}}(x,y)f(y) 
\la_M(dy)$
and $(e^{-t\frac{\lap_M}2}f)(x)=\int_M h(x,y,t) f(y) \la_M(dy)$,  
where $\la_M$
is the volume measure on $M$, $h(x,y,t)$ is the heat kernel on $M$, one
interprets this relation as a weak convergence in $\C(M)$ of the  
integral
kernels: $q_{\mc P}(x,y)\to h(x,y,t)$. The present paper improves the  
result by
Smolyanov and Weizsaecker, and shows that this convergence is uniform  
on $M\x
M$. Keywords: Gaussian integrals on compact Riemannian manifolds,  
heat kernel,
Smolyanov--Weizsaecker approach, Smolyanov--Weizsaecker surface measures


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701281

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5113. THE CONVERGENCE TO EQUILIBRIUM OF NEUTRAL GENETIC MODELS

Pierre Del Moral (JAD and  IRISA / INRIA Rennes) and  Laurent Miclo  
(LATP) and   Fr\'{e}d\'{e}ric Patras (JAD), Sylvain Rubenthaler (JAD)

This article is concerned with the long time behavior of neutral genetic
population models, with fixed population size. We design an explicit,  
finite,
exact, genealogical tree based representation of stationary  
populations that
holds both for finite and infinite types (or alleles) models. We then  
analyze
the decays to the equilibrium of finite populations in terms of the  
convergence
to stationarity of their first common ancestor. We estimate the Lyapunov
exponent of the distribution flows with respect to the total  
variation norm. We
give bounds on these exponents only depending on the stability with  
respect to
mutation of a single individual; they are inversely proportional to the
population size parameter.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701284

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5114. SORTING USING COMPLETE SUBINTERVALS AND THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF  
RUNS IN A  RANDOMLY EVOLVING SEQUENCE

Svante Janson

We study the space requirements of a sorting algorithm where only  
items that
at the end will be adjacent are kept together. This is equivalent to the
following combinatorial problem: Consider a string of fixed length n  
that
starts as a string of 0's, and then evolves by changing each 0 to 1,  
with then
changes done in random order. What is the maximal number of runs of 1's?
   We give asymptotic results for the distribution and mean. It turns  
out that,
as in many problems involving a maximum, the maximum is  
asymptotically normal,
with fluctuations of order n^{1/2}, and to the first order well  
approximated by
the number of runs at the instance when the expectation is maximized,  
in this
case when half the elements have changed to 1; there is also a second  
order
term of order n^{1/3}.
   We also treat some variations, including priority queues. The  
proofs use
methods originally developed for random graphs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701288

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5115. CRITICAL RANDOM GRAPHS: DIAMETER AND MIXING TIME

Asaf Nachmias and Yuval Peres

Let C_1 denote the largest connected component of the critical Erdos- 
Renyi
random graph G(n,1/n). We show that, typically, the diameter of C_1  
is of order
n^{1/3} and the mixing time of the lazy simple random walk on C_1 is  
of order
n. The latter answers a question of Benjamini, Kozma and Wormald.  
These results
extend to clusters of size n^{2/3} of p-bond percolation on any d- 
regular
n-vertex graph where such clusters exist, provided that p(d-1) \leq 1.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701316

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5116. ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY FOR TRACES OF POLYNOMIALS IN INDEPENDENT  
COMPLEX  WISHART MATRICES

Wlodek Bryc

We derive a non-asymptotic expression for the moments of traces of  
monomials
in several independent complex Wishart matrices, extending some explicit
formulas available in the literature. We then deduce the explicit  
expression
for the cumulants. From the latter, we read out the multivariate normal
approximation to the traces of finite families of polynomials in  
independent
complex Wishart matrices.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701318

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5117. SOME THEORY FOR THE ANALYSIS OF RANDOM FIELDS - WITH  
APPLICATIONS TO  GEOSTATISTICS

Philipp Pluch

MSc thesis written under the supervision of Dr. J. Pilz (Klagenfurt
University) and Dr. W. Mueller (Linz University) during the FWF Project
'Optimal design of correlated random fields'.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701323

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5118. RANDOM MATRICES, THE ULAM PROBLEM, DIRECTED POLYMERS & GROWTH  
MODELS,  AND SEQUENCE MATCHING

Satya N. Majumdar

In these lecture notes I will give a pedagogical introduction to some  
common
aspects of 4 different problems: (i) random matrices (ii) the longest
increasing subsequence problem (also known as the Ulam problem) (iii)  
directed
polymers in random medium and growth models in (1+1) dimensions and  
(iv) a
problem on the alignment of a pair of random sequences. Each of these  
problems
is almost entirely a sub-field by itself and here I will discuss only  
some
specific aspects of each of them. These 4 problems have been studied  
almost
independently for the past few decades, but only over the last few  
years a
common thread was found to link all of them. In particular all of  
them share
one common limiting probability distribution known as the Tracy-Widom
distribution that describes the asymptotic probability distribution  
of the
largest eigenvalue of a random matrix. I will mention here, without
mathematical derivation, some of the beautiful results discovered in  
the past
few years. Then, I will consider two specific models (a) a ballistic  
deposition
growth model and (b) a model of sequence alignment known as the  
Bernoulli
matching model and discuss, in some detail, how one derives exactly the
Tracy-Widom law in these models. The emphasis of these lectures would  
be on how
to map one model to another. Some open problems are discussed at the  
end.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0701193

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5119. PERCOLATION ON DENSE GRAPH SEQUENCES

B. Bollobas and C. Borgs and J. Chayes and O. Riordan

In this paper, we determine the percolation threshold for an arbitrary
sequence of dense graphs $(G_n)$. Let $\lambda_n$ be the largest  
eigenvalue of
the adjacency matrix of $G_n$, and let $G_n(p_n)$ be the random  
subgraph of
$G_n$ that is obtained by keeping each edge independently with  
probability
$p_n$. We show that the appearance of a giant component in $G_n(p_n)$  
has a
sharp threshold at $p_n=1/\lambda_n$. In fact, we prove much more,  
that if
$(G_n)$ converges to an irreducible limit, then the density of the  
largest
component of $G_n(c/n)$ tends to the survival probability of a multi- 
type
branching process defined in terms of this limit. Here the notions of
convergence and limit are those of Borgs, Chayes, Lov\'asz, S\'os and
Vesztergombi.
   In addition to using basic properties of convergence, we make  
heavy use of
the methods of Bollob\'as, Janson and Riordan, who used such branching
processes to study the emergence of a giant component in a very broad  
family of
sparse inhomogeneous random graphs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701346

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5120. A GRAPH THEORETIC INTERPRETATION OF THE MEAN FIRST PASSAGE TIMES

Pavel Chebotarev

Let $m_{ij}$ be the mean first passage time from state $i$ to state $j 
$ in an
$n$-state ergodic homogeneous Markov chain with transition matrix $T 
$. Let $G$
be the weighted digraph without loops whose vertex set is the set of  
states of
the Markov chain and arc weights are equal to the corresponding  
transition
probabilities. We give a graph-theoretic interpretation to $m_{ij}$.  
Namely, we
show that $m_{ij}=1/q_j$ if $i=j$ and $m_{ij}=f_{ij}/(\sigma q_j)$ if  
$i\ne j$,
where $f_{ij}$ is the total weight of 2-tree spanning converging  
forests in $G$
that have one tree containing $i$ and the other tree converging to $j 
$, $q_j$
is the total weight of spanning trees converging to $j$, and $\sigma$  
is the
total weight of spanning converging trees in $G$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701359

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5121. EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF THE CARDINALITY OF LARGE DATA SETS

Philippe Chassaing (IECN) and  Lucas Gerin (IECN)

F.Giroire has recently proposed an algorithm which returns the  
approximate
number of distincts elements in a large sequence of words, under strong
constraints coming from the analysis of large data bases. His  
estimation is
based on statistical properties of uniform random variables in $[0,1] 
$. In this
note we propose an optimal estimation, using Kullback information and
estimation theory.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701347

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5122. JARZYNSKI'S IDENTITY

Evelina Shamarova

Jarzynski's identity (non-equilibrium work theorem) relates the  
equilibrium
free energy difference $\Dl F$ to the work $W$ carried out on a  
system during a
non-equilibrium transformation. In physics literature, the identity  
is usually
written in the form: $ e^{-\beta W} = e^{-\beta\Dl F}$, where the  
average is
said to be taken over all trajectories in the phase space. The  
identity in this
form has been derived in different ways and published by many  
authors. Since
the identity contains the "average over trajectories", it is natural to
interpret this average as the expectation relative to a probability  
measure on
trajectories, while assuming that the system evolves stochastically.  
In the
present work, Jarzynski's identity is formulated and proved  
mathematically
rigorous. It is written in the form $\mathbb E[e^{-\beta W}] = e^{- 
\beta\Dl
F}$, where $\mathbb E$ is the expectation relative to a probability  
measure on
phase space paths. For this probability measure, some analytical  
assumptions
under which Jarzynki's identity holds, are found. Keywords: Probability
measures on phase space paths, integration over phase space paths,
non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, rigorous consideration of  
Jarzynski's
identity


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701360

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5123. A PARTICLE SYSTEM IN INTERACTION WITH A RAPIDLY VARYING  
ENVIRONMENT:  MEAN FIELD LIMITS AND APPLICATIONS

Charles Bordenave and  David McDonald and Alexandre Proutiere

We study an interacting particle system whose dynamics depends on an
interacting random environment. As the number of particles grows  
large, the
transition rate of the particles slows down (perhaps because they  
share a
common resource of fixed capacity). The transition rate of a particle is
determined by its state, by the empirical distribution of all the  
particles and
by a rapidly varying environment. The transitions of the environment are
determined by the empirical distribution of the particles. We prove the
propagation of chaos on the path space of the particles and establish  
that the
limiting trajectory of the empirical measure of the states of the  
particles
satisfies a deterministic differential equation. This deterministic
differential equation involves the time averages of the environment  
process.
   We apply our results to analyze the performance of communication  
networks
where users access some resources using random distributed multi-access
algorithms. For these networks, we show that the environment process
corresponds to a process describing the number of clients in a  
certain loss
network, which allows us provide simple and explicit expressions of  
the network
performance.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701363

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5124. ON UNIQUENESS OF MAXIMAL COUPLING FOR DIFFUSION PROCESSES WITH  
A  REFLECTION

Kazumasa Kuwada

A maximal coupling of two diffusion processes makes two diffusion  
particles
meet as early as possible. We study the uniqueness of maximal  
couplings under a
sort of "reflection structure" which ensures the existence of such  
couplings.
In this framework, the uniqueness in the class of Markovian couplings  
holds for
the Brownian motion on a Riemannian manifold whereas it fails in more  
singular
cases. We also prove that a Kendall-Cranston coupling is maximal  
under the
reflection structure.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701372

---------------------------------------------------------------

5125. THE BIRTHDAY PROBLEM AND MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO

Itai Benjamini and Ben Morris

We study the problem of generating a sample from the stationary  
distribution
of a Markov chain, given a method to simulate the chain. We give an
approximation algorithm for the case of a random walk on a regular  
graph with n
vertices that runs in expected time O^*(\sqrt{n} x L^2-mixing time).  
This is
close to the best possible, since \sqrt{n} is a lower bound on the  
worst-case
expected running time of any algorithm.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701390

---------------------------------------------------------------

5126. MULTIVARIATE REGULAR VARIATION OF HEAVY-TAILED MARKOV CHAINS

Johan Segers

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary
marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a
multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More  
generally, if
the Markov chain is allowed to switch from positive to negative  
extremes or
vice versa, the distribution of the tail chain increment may depend  
on the sign
of the tail chain on the previous step. But even then, the forward  
and backward
tail chain mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint  
relation. As
a consequence, the finite-dimensional distributions of the Markov  
chain are
multivariate regularly varying in a way determined by the back-and- 
forth tail
chain. An application of the theory yields the asymptotic  
distribution of the
past and the future of the solution to a stochastic difference equation
conditionally on the present value being large in absolute value.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701411

---------------------------------------------------------------

5127. HYDRODYNAMICS FOR A NON-CONSERVATIVE INTERACTING PARTICLE SYSTEM

Glauco Valle

We study a simple one-dimensional model which is roughly based on the  
spread
of rainfall on a volume already occupied by a incompressible fluid  
aiming to
describe the microscopic evolution of the density of mass of the  
fluid in
infinite volume under local regular increase of mass of the system  
and obtain
the macroscopic behaviour through the hydrodynamic limit.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701413

---------------------------------------------------------------

5128. A LOWER BOUND ON THE DISCONNECTION TIME OF A DISCRETE CYLINDER

Amir Dembo and Alain-Sol Sznitman

We study the asymptotic behavior for large N of the disconnection  
time T_N of
simple random walk on a discrete cylinder with base a d-dimensional  
discrete
torus of side-length N. When d is sufficiently large, we are able to
substantially improve the lower bounds obtained by the authors in a  
previous
article when d is bigger or equal to 2. We show here that the laws of
N^(2d)/T_N are tight.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701414

---------------------------------------------------------------

5129. A PHASE TRANSITION FOR COMPETITION INTERFACES

Pablo A. Ferrari and  James B. Martin and Leandro P. R. Pimentel

We study the competition interface between two growing clusters in a  
growth
model associated to last-passage percolation. When the initial  
unoccupied set
is approximately a cone, we show that this interface has an asymptotic
direction with probability 1. The behaviour of this direction depends  
on the
angle theta of the cone: for theta greater or equal to 180, the  
direction is
deterministic, while for theta smaller than 180, it is random, and its
distribution can be given explicitly in certain cases. We also obtain  
partial
results on the fluctuations of the interface around its asymptotic  
direction.
The evolution of the competition interface in the growth model can be  
mapped
onto the path of a second-class particle in the totally asymmetric  
simple
exclusion process; from the existence of the limiting direction for the
interface, we obtain a new and rather natural proof of the strong law  
of large
numbers (with perhaps a random limit) for the position of the second- 
class
particle at large times.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701418

---------------------------------------------------------------

5130. TAIL ASYMPTOTICS FOR DISCRETE EVENT SYSTEMS

Marc Lelarge

In the context of communication networks, the framework of stochastic  
event
graphs allows a modeling of control mechanisms induced by the  
communication
protocol and an analysis of its performances. We concentrate on the  
logarithmic
tail asymptotics of the stationary response time for a class of  
networks that
admit a representation as (max,plus)-linear systems in a random  
medium. We are
able to derive analytic results when the distribution of the holding  
times are
light-tailed. We show that the lack of independence may lead in  
dimension
bigger than one to non-trivial effects in the asymptotics of the  
sojourn time.
We also study in detail a simple queueing network with multipath  
routing.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701420

---------------------------------------------------------------

5131. A FRACTIONAL GENERALIZATION OF THE POISSON PROCESSES

Francesco Mainardi and  Rudolf Gorenflo and Enrico Scalas

It is our intention to provide via fractional calculus a  
generalization of
the pure and compound Poisson processes, which are known to play a  
fundamental
role in renewal theory, without and with reward, respectively. We  
first recall
the basic renewal theory including its fundamental concepts like  
waiting time
between events, the survival probability, the counting function. If  
the waiting
time is exponentially distributed we have a Poisson process, which is
Markovian. However, other waiting time distributions are also  
relevant in
applications, in particular such ones with a fat tail caused by a  
power law
decay of its density. In this context we analyze a non-Markovian renewal
process with a waiting time distribution described by the Mittag-Leffler
function. This distribution, containing the exponential as particular  
case, is
shown to play a fundamental role in the infinite thinning procedure of a
generic renewal process governed by a power asymptotic waiting time.  
We then
consider the renewal theory with reward that implies a random walk  
subordinated
to a renewal process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701454

---------------------------------------------------------------

5132. RENEWAL PROCESSES OF MITTAG-LEFFLER AND WRIGHT TYPE

Francesco Mainardi and  Rudolf Gorenflo and Alessandro Vivoli

After sketching the basic principles of renewal theory we discuss the
classical Poisson process and offer two other processes, namely the  
renewal
process of Mittag-Leffler type and the renewal process of Wright  
type, so named
by us because special functions of Mittag-Leffler and of Wright type  
appear in
the definition of the relevant waiting times. We compare these three  
processes
with each other, furthermore consider corresponding renewal processes  
with
reward and numerically their long-time behaviour.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701455

---------------------------------------------------------------

5133. OPTIMAL CONTROL OF A LARGE DAM, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE WATER  
COSTS

Vyacheslav M. Abramov

Consider a large dam model, which is characterized by an upper level
$L^{upper}$ and lower level $L^{lower}$, and if in time $t$ the level  
of water
$L_t$ is between these bounds, then the dam is said to be in a normal  
state.
The value $L$ = $L^{upper}$ - $L^{lower}$ is assumed to be large. The  
passage
of lower or upper bounds leads to damage, the cost per time unit of  
which is
$J_1=j_1L$ and $J_2=j_2L$ correspondingly, where $j_1$ and $j_2$ are  
given
constants. Let $c_{L_t}$ denote a water cost, depending on the level  
of water
in time $t$, $L^{lower}<L_t\leq L^{upper}$. Assuming that
$p_1$=$\lim_{t\to\infty}\mathbf{P}\{L_t=L^{lower}\}$,
$p_2$=$\lim_{t\to\infty}\mathbf{P}\{L_t>L^{upper}\}$ and
$q_i$=$\lim_{t\to\infty}\mathbf{P}\{L_t=i\}$ ($L^{lower}<i\leq L^ 
{upper}$)
exist, the aim of the paper is to choose the parameters of an output  
stream
(specifically defined in the paper) minimizing the long-run expenses
$$J=p_1J_1+p_2J_2+\sum_{i=L^{lower}+1}^{L^{upper}}q_ic_i.$$
   The more particular problem, not taking into account the water  
costs, has
been recently studied in [Abramov, \emph{J. Appl. Prob.} 44 (2007),  
to appear].
The circle of problems discussed in the present paper is related to the
question \textit{How a structure of the water costs affects an optimal
solution?}.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701458

---------------------------------------------------------------

5134. MULTIVARIATE NORMAL APPROXIMATION USING EXCHANGEABLE PAIRS

Sourav Chatterjee and  Elizabeth Meckes

Since the introduction of Stein's method in the early 1970s, much  
research
has been done in extending and strengthening it; however, there does  
not exist
a version of Stein's original method of exchangeable pairs for  
multivariate
normal approximation. The aim of this article is to fill this void.  
We present
two abstract normal approximation theorems using exchangeable pairs in
multivariate contexts, one for situations in which the underlying  
symmetries
are discrete, and one for situations involving continuous symmetry  
groups. We
provide several illustrative examples, including a multivariate  
version of
Hoeffding's combinatorial central limit theorem and a treatment of  
projections
of Haar measure on the orthogonal and unitary groups.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701464

---------------------------------------------------------------

5135. ON CLASSICAL ANALOGUES OF FREE ENTROPY DIMENSION

A. Guionnet and D. Shlyakhtenko

We define a classical probability analogue of Voiculescu's free entropy
dimension that we shall call the classical probability entropy  
dimension of a
probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^n$. We show that the classical  
probability
entropy dimension of a measure is related with diverse other notions of
dimension. First, it can be viewed as a kind of fractal dimension.  
Second, if
one extends Bochner's inequalities to a measure by requiring that  
microstates
around this measure asymptotically satisfy the classical Bochner's
inequalities, then we show that the classical probability entropy  
dimension
controls the rate of increase of optimal constants in Bochner's  
inequality for
a measure regularized by convolution with the Gaussian law as the
regularization is removed. We introduce a free analogue of the Bochner
inequality and study the related free entropy dimension quantity. We  
show that
it is greater or equal to the non-microstates free entropy dimension.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701465

---------------------------------------------------------------

5136. ON THE HARDNESS OF SAMPLING INDEPENDENT SETS BEYOND THE TREE  
THRESHOLD

Elchanan Mossel and Dror Weitz and Nicholas Wormald

We consider local Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithms for sampling  
from the
weighted distribution of independent sets with activity $\l$, where  
the weight
of an independent set $I$ is $\l^{|I|}$. A recent result has  
established that
Gibbs sampling is rapidly mixing in sampling the distribution for  
graphs of
maximum degree $d$ and $\l<\l_c(d)$, where $\l_c(d)$ is the critical  
activity
for uniqueness of the Gibbs measure (i.e., for decay of correlations  
with
distance in the weighted distribution over independent sets) on the $d 
$-regular
infinite tree.
   We show that for $d \geq 3$, $\l$ just above $\l_c(d)$ with high  
probability
over $d$-regular bipartite graphs, any local Markov chain Monte-Carlo  
algorithm
takes exponential time before getting close to the stationary  
distribution.
   Our results provide a rigorous justification for ``replica'' method
heuristics. These heuristics were invented in theoretical physics and  
are used
in order to derive predictions on Gibbs measures on random graphs in  
terms of
Gibbs measures on trees. We conjecture that $\l_c$ is in fact the exact
threshold for this computational problem, i.e., that for $\l>\l_c$ it is
NP-hard to approximate the above weighted sum overindependent sets to  
within a
factor polynomial in the size of the graph.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701471

---------------------------------------------------------------

5137. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MIXING RATE

Nikolaos Fountoulakis and Bruce Reed

In this paper we present a study of the mixing time of a random walk  
on the
largest component of a supercritical random graph, also known as the  
giant
component. We identify local obstructions that slow down the random  
walk, when
the average degree d is at most (ln n lnln n)^{1/2}, proving that the  
mixing
time in this case is O((ln n/d)^2) asymptotically almost surely. As  
the average
degree grows these become negligible and it is the diameter of the  
largest
component that takes over, yielding mixing time O(ln n/ln d). We  
proved these
results during the 2003-04 academic year. Similar results but for  
constant d
were later proved independently by I. Benjamini, G. Kozma and N.  
Wormald.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0701474

---------------------------------------------------------------

5138. THE GHOSTS OF THE ECOLE NORMALE. LIFE, DEATH AND DESTINY OF REN 
\'{E}  GATEAUX

Laurent Mazliak (PMA and  IMJ)

The present paper deals with the life and some aspects of the scientific
contribution of the mathematician Ren\'{e} Gateaux, killed during  
World War 1
at the age of 25. Though he died very young, he left interesting  
results in
functional analysis. In particular, he was among the first to try to  
construct
an integral over an infinite dimensional space. His ideas were  
extensively
developed later by L\'{e}vy. Among other things, he interpreted  
Gateaux's
integral in a probabilistic framework that later led to the  
construction of
Wiener measure. This article tries to explain this singular personal and
professional destiny in pre and postwar France. It also recalls the  
slaughter
inflicted on French students during the conflict.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.HO/0701490

---------------------------------------------------------------

5139. COMPUTATION TREE AND STRONG SPATIAL MIXING IN MULTI-SPIN SYSTEMS

Chandra Nair and  Prasad Tetali

This paper deals with the construction of a computation tree  
(hypertree) for
interacting systems modeled using graphs (hypergraphs) that preserve the
marginal probability of any vertex of interest. Local message passing  
equations
have been used for some time to approximate the marginal  
probabilities in
graphs but it is known that these equations are incorrect for graphs  
with
loops. In this paper we construct, for any finite graph and a fixed  
vertex, a
finite computation tree with appropriately defined boundary  
conditions so that
the marginal probability on the tree at the vertex matches that on  
the graph.
For several interacting systems, we show using our approach that if  
there is
strong spatial mixing on an infinite regular tree, then one has  
strong spatial
mixing for any given graph with maximum degree bounded by that of the  
regular
tree. Thus we identify the regular tree as the worst case graph for  
the notion
of strong spatial mixing.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701494

---------------------------------------------------------------

5140. ON SINGULAR INTEGRAL AND MARTINGALE TRANSFORMS

S. Geiss and  S. Montgomery-Smith and  E. Saksman

Linear equivalences of norms of vector-valued singular integral  
operators and
vector-valued martingale transforms are studied. In particular, it is  
shown
that the UMD(p)-constant of a Banach space X equals the norm of the  
real (or
the imaginary) part of the Beurling-Ahlfors singular integral  
operator, acting
on the X-valued L^p-space on the plane. Moreover, replacing equality  
by a
linear equivalence, this is found to be the typical property of even
multipliers. A corresponding result for odd multipliers and the Hilbert
transform is given.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CA/0701516

---------------------------------------------------------------

5141. PENALIZATIONS OF THE BROWNIAN MOTION BY A FUNCTIONAL OF ITS  
LOCAL TIMES

Joseph Najnudel

In this article, we study the family of probability measures (indexed  
by a
positive real number t), obtained by penalization of the Brownian  
motion by a
given functional of its local times at time t. We prove that this  
family tends
to a limit measure when t goes to infinity if the functional  
satisfies some
conditions of domination, and we check these conditions in several  
particular
cases.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701526

---------------------------------------------------------------

5142. VOTER MODELS WITH HETEROZYGOSITY SELECTION

Anja Sturm and Jan Swart

This paper studies variations of the usual voter model that favour  
types that
are locally less common. Such models are dual to certain systems of  
branching
annihilating random walks that are parity preserving. For both the  
voter models
and their dual branching annihilating systems we determine all  
homogeneous
invariant laws, and we study convergence to these laws started from  
other
initial laws.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701555

---------------------------------------------------------------

5143. HARMONIC ANALYSIS ON A FINITE HOMOGENEOUS SPACE

Fabio Scarabotti and  Filippo Tolli

In this paper, we study harmonic analysis on finite homogeneous  
spaces whose
associated permutation representation decomposes with multiplicity.  
After a
careful look at Frobenius reciprocity and transitivity of induction,  
and the
introduction of three types of spherical functions, we develop a  
theory of
Gelfand Tsetlin bases for permutation representations. Then we study  
several
concrete examples on the symmetric groups, generalizing the Gelfand  
pair of the
Johnson scheme; we also consider statistical and probabilistic  
applications.
After that, we consider the composition of two permutation  
representations,
giving a non commutative generalization of the Gelfand pair  
associated to the
ultrametric space; actually, we study the more general notion of crested
product. Finally, we consider the exponentiation action, generalizing  
the
decomposition of the Gelfand pair of the Hamming scheme; actually, we  
study a
more general construction that we call wreath product of permutation
representations, suggested by the study of finite lamplighter random  
walks. We
give several examples of concrete decompositions of permutation  
representations
and several explicit 'rules' of decomposition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.RT/0701533

---------------------------------------------------------------

5144. NETWORKS OF RECURRENT EVENTS, A THEORY OF RECORDS, AND AN  
APPLICATION TO  FINDING CAUSAL SIGNATURES IN SEISMICITY

J. Davidsen and  P. Grassberger and  M. Paczuski

We propose a method to search for signs of causal structure in  
spatiotemporal
data making minimal a priori assumptions about the underlying  
dynamics. To this
end, we generalize the elementary concept of recurrence for a point  
process in
time to recurrent events in space and time. An event is defined to be a
recurrence of any previous event if it is closer to it in space than  
all the
intervening events. As such, each sequence of recurrences for a given  
event is
a record breaking process. This definition provides a strictly data  
driven
technique to search for structure. Defining events to be nodes, and  
linking
each event to its recurrences, generates a network of recurrent events.
Significant deviations in properties of that network compared to  
networks
arising from random processes allows one to infer attributes of the  
causal
dynamics that generate observable correlations in the patterns. We  
derive
analytically a number of properties for the network of recurrent events
composed by a random process. We extend the theory of records to  
treat not only
the variable where records happen, but also time as continuous. In  
this way, we
construct a fully symmetric theory of records leading to a number of new
results. Those analytic results are compared to the properties of a  
network
synthesized from earthquakes in Southern California. Significant  
disparities
from the ensemble of acausal networks that can be plausibly  
attributed to the
causal structure of seismicity are: (1) Invariance of network  
statistics with
the time span of the events considered, (2) Appearance of a  
fundamental length
scale for recurrences, independent of the time span of the catalog,  
which is
consistent with observations of the ``rupture length'', (3) Hierarchy  
in the
distances and times of subsequent recurrences.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/physics/0701190

---------------------------------------------------------------

5145. EXIT ASYMPTOTICS FOR SMALL DIFFUSION ABOUT AN UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM

Yuri Bakhtin

A dynamical system perturbed by white noise in a neighborhood of an  
unstable
fixed point is considered. We obtain the exit asymptotics in the  
limit of
vanishing noise intensity. This is a refinement of a result by Kifer  
(1981).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701569

---------------------------------------------------------------

5146. GENERATING RANDOM VECTORS IN (Z/PZ)^D VIA AN AFFINE RANDOM PROCESS

Martin Hildebrand and Joseph McCollum

This paper considers some random processes of the form X_{n+1}=TX_n 
+B_n (mod
p) where B_n and X_n are random variables over (Z/pZ)^d and T is a  
fixed d x d
integer matrix which is invertible over the complex numbers. For a  
particular
distribution for B_n, this paper improves results of Asci to show  
that if T has
no complex eigenvalues of length 1, then for integers p relatively  
prime to
det(T), order (log p)^2 steps suffice to make X_n close to uniformly
distributed where X_0 is the zero vector. This paper also shows that  
if T has a
complex eigenvalue which is a root of unity, then order p^b steps are  
needed
for X_n to get close to uniform where b is a value which may depend  
on T and
X_0 is the zero vector.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701570

---------------------------------------------------------------

5147. MEINARDUS' THEOREM ON WEIGHTED PARTITIONS: EXTENSIONS AND A   
PROBABILISTIC PROOF

Boris L. Granovsky and  Dudley Stark and Michael Erlihson

We give a probalistic proof of the famous Meinardus' asymptotic  
formula for
the number of weighted partitions with weakened one of the three  
Meinardus'
conditions, and extend the resulting version of the theorem to other two
classis types of decomposable combinatorial structures, which are called
assemblies and selections. The results obtained are based on combining
Meinardus' analytical approach with probabilistic method of Khitchine.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701584

---------------------------------------------------------------

5148. HARMONIC ANALYSIS OF FINITE LAMPLIGHTER RANDOM WALKS

Fabio Scarabotti and  Filippo Tolli

Recently, several papers have been devoted to the analysis of  
lamplighter
random walks, in particular when the underlying graph is the infinite  
path
$\mathbb{Z}$. In the present paper, we develop a spectral analysis for
lamplighter random walks on finite graphs. In the general case, we  
use the
$C_2$-symmetry to reduce the spectral computations to a series of  
eigenvalue
problems on the underlying graph. In the case the graph has a transitive
isometry group $G$, we also describe the spectral analysis in terms  
of the
representation theory of the wreath product $C_2\wr G$. We apply our  
theory to
the lamplighter random walks on the complete graph and on the  
discrete circle.
These examples were already studied by Haggstrom and Jonasson by  
probabilistic
methods.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701603

---------------------------------------------------------------

5149. CONNECTED ALLOCATION TO POISSON POINTS IN R^2

Maxim Krikun (IECN)

his note answers one question in [math.PR/0505668], concerning the  
connected
allocation for the Poisson process in R^2. The proposed solution  
makes use of
the Riemann map from the plane minus the minimal spanning forest of  
the Poisson
point process to the halfplane. A picture of a numerically simulated  
example is
included.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701611

---------------------------------------------------------------

5150. ASYMPTOTIC ENUMERATION OF DENSE 0-1 MATRICES WITH SPECIFIED  
LINE SUMS  AND FORBIDDEN POSITIONS

Catherine Greenhill and Brendan D. McKay

Let S=(s_1,s_2,..., s_m) and T = (t_1,t_2,..., t_n) be vectors of
non-negative integers with \sum_{i=1}^m s_i = \sum_{j=1}^n t_j, and let
X=(x_{jk}) be an m*n matrix over {0,1}. Define B(S,T,X) to be the  
number of m*n
matrices B=(b_{jk}) over {0,1} with row sums given by S and column  
sums given
by T such that x_{jk}=1 implies b_{jk}=0 for all j,k. That is, X  
specifies a
set of entries of B required to be 0. Equivalently, B(S,T,X) is the  
number of
bipartite graphs with m vertices in one part with degrees given by S,  
and n
vertices in the other part with degrees given by T, and avoiding all  
the edges
specified in X. Note that B(S,T,X)/B(S,T,0) is the probability that a  
uniformly
chosen {0,1}-matrix with row sums S and column sums T has zeros in  
the places
where X is nonzero. An asymptotic formula for B(S,T,X) was given by  
McKay
(1984) in the case that the matrices are sparse. In the case of dense  
matrices
there seem to be no prior results except for the special case X=0  
studied by
Canfield, Greenhill and McKay (math.CO/0606496). This paper extends the
analytic methods used by the latter paper to obtain an asymptotic  
formula for
B(S,T,X) in the dense regime where the entries of S and T can vary  
within
certain limits and the row and column sums of X are not too large. As
applications, we find the asymptotic number of simple digraphs with  
given
vectors of in-degree and out-degree, and the expected permanent of a
{0,1}-matrix with given row and column sums, with both results  
holding in the
dense regime.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0701600

---------------------------------------------------------------

5151. A LIMIT THEOREM FOR DIFFUSIONS ON GRAPHS WITH VARIABLE  
CONFIGURATION

Alexey M. Kulik

A limit theorem for a sequence of diffusion processes on graphs is  
proved in
a case when vary both parameters of the processes (the drift and  
diffusion
coefficients on every edge and the asymmetry coefficients in every  
vertex), and
configuration of graphs, where the processes are set on. The explicit  
formulae
for the parameters of asymmetry for the vertices of the limiting  
graph are
given in the case, when, in the pre-limiting graphs, some groups of  
vertices
form knots contracting into a points.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701632

---------------------------------------------------------------

5152. GROWTH OF PREFERENTIAL ATTACHMENT RANDOM GRAPHS VIA CONTINUOUS- 
TIME  BRANCHING PROCESSES

K.B. Athreya and  A.P. Ghosh and  S. Sethuraman

A version of ``preferential attachment'' random graphs, corresponding to
linear ``weights'' with random ``edge additions,'' which generalizes  
some
previously considered models, is studied. This graph model is  
embedded in a
continuous-time branching scheme and, using the branching process  
apparatus,
several results on the graph model asymptotics are obtained, some  
extending
previous results, such as growth rates for a typical degree and the  
maximal
degree, behavior of the vertex where the maximal degree is attained,  
and a law
of large numbers for the empirical distribution of degrees which  
shows certain
   ``scale-free'' or ``power-law'' behaviors.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701649

---------------------------------------------------------------

5153. THE LOWER TAIL PROBLEM FOR HOMOGENEOUS FUNCTIONALS OF STABLE  
PROCESSES  WITH NO NEGATIVE JUMPS

Thomas Simon (DP)

Let Z be a strictly a-stable real Levy process (a>1) and X be a  
fluctuating
b-homogeneous additive functional of Z. We investigate the  
asymptotics of the
first passage-time of X above 1, and give a general upper bound. When  
Z has no
negative jumps, we prove that this bound is optimal and does not  
depend on the
homogeneity parameter b. This extends a result of Y. Isozaki.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701653

---------------------------------------------------------------

5154. SPLITTING PAIRS AND THE NUMBER OF CLUSTERS GENERATED BY RANDOM  
PAIR  INCOMPATIBILITIES

Damien Pitman

We consider a random fitness landscape on the space of haploid diallelic
genotypes with n genetic loci, where each genotype is considered either
inviable or viable depending on whether or not there are any  
incompatibilities
among its allele pairs. We suppose that each allele pair in the set  
of all
possible allele pairs on the n loci is independently incompatible with
probability p=c/(2n). We examine the connectivity of the viable  
genotypes under
single locus mutations and show that, for 0<c<1, the the number of  
clusters of
viable genotypes in this landscape converges weakly (in n) to N=2^ 
{Psi} where
Psi is Poisson distributed; while for c>1, there are no viable  
genotypes with
probability converging to one. The genotype space is equivalent to the
n-dimensional hypercube and the viable genotypes are solutions to a  
random
2-SAT problem, so the same result holds for the connectivity of  
solutions in
the hypercube to a random 2-SAT problem.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701656

---------------------------------------------------------------

5155. NORMAL FORM TRANSFORMS SEPARATE SLOW AND FAST MODES IN  
STOCHASTIC  DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

A. J. Roberts

Modelling stochastic systems has many important applications. Normal  
form
coordinate transforms are a powerful way to untangle interesting long  
term
macroscale dynamics from detailed microscale dynamics. We explore such
coordinate transforms of stochastic differential systems when the  
dynamics has
both slow modes and quickly decaying modes. The thrust is to derive  
normal
forms useful for macroscopic modelling of complex stochastic microscopic
systems. Thus we not only must reduce the dimensionality of the  
dynamics, but
also endeavour to separate all slow processes from all fast time  
processes,
both deterministic and stochastic. Quadratic stochastic effects in  
the fast
modes contribute to the drift of the important slow modes. The  
results will
help us accurately model, interpret and simulate multiscale  
stochastic systems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.DS/0701623

---------------------------------------------------------------

5156. ASYMPTOTIC EVOLUTION OF ACYCLIC RANDOM MAPPINGS

Steven N. Evans and Tye Lidman

An acyclic mapping from an $n$ element set into itself is a mapping $ 
\phi$
such that if $\phi^k(x) = x$ for some $k$ and $x$, then $\phi(x) = x$.
Equivalently, $\phi^\ell = \phi^{\ell+1} = ...$ for $\ell$  
sufficiently large.
We investigate the behavior as $n \to \infty$ of a Markov chain on the
collection of such mappings. At each step of the chain, a point in  
the $n$
element set is chosen uniformly at random and the current mapping is  
modified
by replacing the current image of that point by a new one chosen  
independently
and uniformly at random, conditional on the resulting mapping being  
again
acyclic. We can represent an acyclic mapping as a directed graph  
(such a graph
will be a collection of rooted trees) and think of these directed  
graphs as
metric spaces with some extra structure. Heuristic calculations  
indicate that
the metric space valued process associated with the Markov chain  
should, after
an appropriate time and ``space'' rescaling, converge as $n \to \infty 
$ to a
real tree ($\R$-tree) valued Markov process that is reversible with  
respect to
a measure induced naturally by the standard reflected Brownian  
bridge. The
limit process, which we construct using Dirichlet form methods, is a  
Hunt
process with respect to a suitable Gromov-Hausdorff-like metric. This  
process
is similar to one that appears in earlier work by Evans and Winter as  
the limit
of chains involving the subtree prune and regraft tree (SPR)  
rearrangements
from phylogenetics.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701657

---------------------------------------------------------------

5157. DIFFUSIVE VARIANCE FOR A TAGGED PARTICLE IN $D\LEQ 2$  
ASYMMETRIC SIMPLE  EXCLUSION

Sunder Sethuraman

We study the equilibrium fluctuations of a tagged particle in finite- 
range
simple exclusion processes on Z^d with biased single particle jump  
rates. It is
known the variance of the tagged particle at time t is diffusive,  
that is on
order O(t), in d\geq 3, and in d=1 when in addition the jump rate is
nearest-neighbor, and moreover, in these cases, central limit  
theorems in
diffusive scale have been proved.
   In this article, we give some partial results in the open cases in  
d\leq 2.
Namely, we show diffusivity of the tagged particle variance at time t  
in the
sense of some upper and lower bounds on order O(t) in d=2, and also  
in d=1 when
in addition the jump rate is not nearest-neighbor. Also, a  
characterization of
the tagged particle variance is given. The main methods are in  
analyzing H_{-1}
norm variational inequalities.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701660

---------------------------------------------------------------

5158. CRITICAL AGE DEPENDENT BRANCHING MARKOV PROCESSES AND THEIR  
SCALING  LIMITS

Krishna Athreya and  Siva Athreya and  and Srikanth Iyer

This paper studies: (i) the long time behaviour of the empirical  
distribution
of age and normalised position of an age dependent critical branching  
Markov
process conditioned on non-extinction; and (ii) the super-process  
limit of a
sequence of age dependent critical branching Brownian motions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701661

---------------------------------------------------------------

5159. SHAPE CURVATURES AND TRANSVERSAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FIRST  
PASSAGE  PERCOLATION MODEL

Yu Zhang

We consider the first passage percolation model on the square  
lattice. In
this model, $\{t(e): e{an edge of}{\bf Z}^2 \}$ is an independent  
identically
distributed family with a common distribution $F$. We denote by $T 
({\bf 0}, v)$
the passage time from the origin to $v$ for $v\in {\bf R}^2$ and $B(t) 
=\{v\in
{\bf R}^d: T({\bf 0}, v)\leq t\}.$ It is well known that if $F(0) <  
p_c$, there
exists a compact shape ${\bf B}_F\subset {\bf R}^2$ such that for all  
$\epsilon
 >0$, $t {\bf B}_F(1-\epsilon) \subset {B(t)} \subset t{\bf B}_F(1+ 
\epsilon)$,
eventually with a probability 1. For each shape boundary point $u$,  
we denote
its right- and left-curvature exponents by $\kappa^+(u)$ and $\kappa^- 
(u)$. In
addition, for each vector $u$, we denote the transversal fluctuation  
exponent
by $\xi(u)$. In this paper, we can show that $\xi(u) \leq
1-\max\{\kappa^-(u)/2, \kappa^+(u)/2\}$ for all shape boundary points  
$u$.
   To pursue a curvature on ${\bf B}_F$, we consider passage times  
with a
special distribution infsupp$(F)=l$ and $F(l)=p > \vec{p}_c$, where $l 
$ is a
positive number and $\vec{p}_c$ is a critical point for the oriented
percolation model. With this distribution, it is known that there is  
a flat
segment on the shape boundary between angles $0< \theta_p^- <  
\theta_p^+<
90^\circ$. In this paper, we show that the shape are strictly convex  
at the
directions $\theta_p^\pm$. Moreover, we also show that for all $r>0$,  
$\xi((r,
\theta^\pm_p)) = 0.5$ and $\xi((r, \theta)) =1$ for all $\theta_p^- < 
\theta<
\theta_p^+$ and $r>0$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701689

---------------------------------------------------------------

5160. SPATIAL EPIDEMICS: CRITICAL BEHAVIOR IN ONE DIMENSION

Steven P. Lalley

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is
transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite  
population by
independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are  
proposed, in
which finite populations of size N are situated at the sites of a  
lattice and
infectious contacts are limited to individuals at neighboring sites.  
Scaling
laws for these models are given when the infection parameter p is  
such that the
epidemics are critical. It is shown that in all cases there is a  
critical
threshold for the numbers initially infected: below the threshold,  
the epidemic
evolves in essentially the same manner as its branching envelope, but  
at the
threshold evolves like a branching process with a size-dependent  
drift. The
corresponding scaling limits are super-Brownian motions and Dawson- 
Watanabe
processes with killing, respectively.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701698

---------------------------------------------------------------

5161. NOTES ON THE OCCUPANCY PROBLEM WITH INFINITELY MANY BOXES:  
GENERAL  ASYMPTOTICS AND POWER LAWS

Alexander Gnedin and  Ben Hansen and Jim Pitman

This paper collects facts about the number of occupied boxes in the  
classical
balls-in-boxes occupancy scheme with infinitely many positive  
frequencies:
equivalently, about the number of species represented in samples from
populations with infinitely many species. We present moments of this  
random
variable, discuss asymptotic relations among them and with related  
random
variables, and draw connections with regular variation, which appears in
various manifestations.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701718

---------------------------------------------------------------

5162. DISTANCE ESTIMATES FOR DEPENDENT THINNINGS OF POINT PROCESSES  
WITH  DENSITIES

Dominic Schuhmacher

In [Schuhmacher, Electron. J. Probab. 10 (2005), 165--201] estimates  
of the
Barbour-Brown distance d_2 between the distribution of a thinned  
point process
and the distribution of a Poisson process were derived by combining
discretization with a result based on Stein's method. In the present  
article we
concentrate on point processes that have a density with respect to a  
Poisson
process. For such processes we can apply a corresponding result directly
without the detour of discretization and thus obtain better and more  
natural
bounds not only in d_2 but also in the stronger total variation  
metric. We give
applications for thinning by covering with an independent Boolean  
model and
"Mat{\'e}rn type I"-thinning of fairly general point processes. These
applications give new insight into the respective models, and either  
generalize
or improve earlier results.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701728

---------------------------------------------------------------

5163. NON-EQUILIBRIUM STOCHASTIC DYNAMICS IN CONTINUUM: THE FREE CASE

Y. Kondratiev and  E. Lytvynov and  M. R\"ockner

We study the problem of identification of a proper state-space for the
stochastic dynamics of free particles in continuum, with their  
possible birth
and death. In this dynamics, the motion of each separate particle is  
described
by a fixed Markov process $M$ on a Riemannian manifold $X$. The main  
problem
arising here is a possible collapse of the system, in the sense that,  
though
the initial configuration of particles is locally finite, there could  
exist a
compact set in $X$ such that, with probability one, infinitely many  
particles
will arrive at this set at some time $t>0$. We assume that $X$ has  
infinite
volume and, for each $\alpha\ge1$, we consider the set $\Theta_\alpha 
$ of all
infinite configurations in $X$ for which the number of particles in a  
compact
set is bounded by a constant times the $\alpha$-th power of the  
volume of the
set. We find quite general conditions on the process $M$ which  
guarantee that
the corresponding infinite particle process can start at each  
configuration
from $\Theta_\alpha$, will never leave $\Theta_\alpha$, and has  
cadlag (or,
even, continuous) sample paths in the vague topology. We consider the  
following
examples of applications of our results: Brownian motion on the  
configuration
space, free Glauber dynamics on the configuration space (or a birth- 
and-death
process in $X$), and free Kawasaki dynamics on the configuration  
space. We also
show that if $X=\mathbb R^d$, then for a wide class of starting  
distributions,
the (non-equilibrium) free Glauber dynamics is a scaling limit of
(non-equilibrium) free Kawasaki dynamics.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701736

---------------------------------------------------------------

5164. SEARCH COST FOR A NEARLY OPTIMAL PATH IN A BINARY TREE

Robin Pemantle

Consider a binary tree, to the vertices of which are assigned  
independent
Bernoulli random variables with mean p <= 1/2. How many of these  
Bernoullis one
must look at in order to find a path of length n from the root which  
maximizes,
up to a factor of 1 - epsilon, the sum of the Bernoullis along the  
path? In the
case, p = 1/2 (the critical value for nontriviality), it is shown to  
take of
order epsilon^{-1} n steps. In the case p < 1/2, the number of steps  
is shown
to be exponential in epsilon^{-1/2}. This last result matches Aldous'  
upper
bound for a certain family of subcases.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701741

---------------------------------------------------------------

5165. EXPONENTIAL ERGODICITY OF THE SOLUTIONS TO SDE'S WITH A JUMP NOISE

Alexey M.Kulik

The mild sufficient conditions for exponential ergodicity of a Markov
process, defined as the solution to SDE with a jump noise, are given.  
These
conditions include three principal claims: recurrence condition R,  
topological
irreducibility condition S and non-degeneracy condition N, the latter
formulated in the terms of a certain random subspace of \Re^m,  
associated with
the initial equation. The examples are given, showing that, in  
general, none of
three principal claims can be removed without losing ergodicity of  
the process.
The key point in the approach, developed in the paper, is that the local
Doeblin condition can be derived from N and S via the stratification  
method and
criterium for the convergence in variations of the family of induced  
measures
on \Re^m.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701747

---------------------------------------------------------------

5166. DECAY RATES LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR THE PLANAR VOTER MODEL  
OCCUPATION TIME

G. Maillard and T. Mountford

We study the decay rate of large deviation probabilities of  
occupation times,
up to time $t$, for the voter model $\eta\colon\Z^2\times[0,\infty)\ra 
\{0,1\}$
with simple random walk transition kernel, starting from a Bernoulli  
product
distribution with density $\rho\in(0,1)$. In \cite{bramcoxgri88},  
Bramson, Cox
and Griffeath showed that the decay rate order lies in $[\log(t), 
\log^2(t)]$.
   In this paper, we establish the true decay rates depending on the  
level. We
show that the decay rates are $\log^2(t)$ when the deviation from $ 
\rho$ is
maximal (i.e., $\eta\equiv 0$ or 1), and $\log(t)$ in all other  
situations.
This answers some conjecture in \cite{bramcoxgri88} and confirms  
analysis
carried out in \cite{benfrakra96}, \cite{dorgod98} and \cite{howgod98}.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701754

---------------------------------------------------------------

5167. AREA DISTRIBUTION AND SCALING FUNCTION FOR PUNCTURED POLYGONS

Christoph Richard and  Iwan Jensen and Anthony J. Guttmann

Punctured polygons are polygons with internal holes which are also  
polygons.
The external and internal polygons are of the same type, and they are  
mutually
as well as self-avoiding. We rigorously analyse the effect of a  
finite number
of punctures on the limiting area distribution in a uniform ensemble,  
where
punctured polygons with equal perimeter have the same probability of
occurrence. The results rely on an assumption on the limiting area  
distribution
for unpunctured polygons. Our analysis leads to conjectures about the  
possible
scaling behaviour of the models.
   We also analyse exact enumeration data. For staircase polygons  
with punctures
of fixed size, we find exact generating functions for the first few
area-moments. For staircase polygons with punctures of arbitrary size, a
careful numerical analysis yields very accurate estimates for the  
area-moments.
Interestingly, we find that the leading correction term for each area- 
moment is
proportional to the corresponding area-moment with one less puncture. We
finally analyse corresponding quantities for punctured self-avoiding  
polygons
and find agreement with the exact formulas to at least 3--4  
significant digits.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0701633

---------------------------------------------------------------

5168. PARAMETRIZED STOCHASTIC GRAMMARS FOR RNA SECONDARY STRUCTURE  
PREDICTION

Robert S. Maier

We propose a two-level stochastic context-free grammar (SCFG)  
architecture
for parametrized stochastic modeling of a family of RNA sequences,  
including
their secondary structure. A stochastic model of this type can be  
used for
maximum a posteriori estimation of the secondary structure of any new  
sequence
in the family. The proposed SCFG architecture models RNA subsequences
comprising paired bases as stochastically weighted Dyck-language  
words, i.e.,
as weighted balanced-parenthesis expressions. The length of each run of
unpaired bases, forming a loop or a bulge, is taken to have a phase-type
distribution: that of the hitting time in a finite-state Markov  
chain. Without
loss of generality, each such Markov chain can be taken to have a  
bounded
complexity. The scheme yields an overall family SCFG with a  
manageable number
of parameters.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/q-bio.BM/0701036

---------------------------------------------------------------

5169. LEARNING TRIGONOMETRIC POLYNOMIALS FROM RANDOM SAMPLES AND  
EXPONENTIAL  INEQUALITIES FOR EIGENVALUES OF RANDOM MATRICES

Karlheinz Groechenig and  Benedikt M. Poetscher and  Holger Rauhut

Motivated by problems arising in random sampling of trigonometric
polynomials, we derive exponential inequalities for the operator norm  
of the
difference between the sample second moment matrix $n^{-1}U^*U$ and its
expectation where $U$ is a complex random $n\times D$ matrix with  
independent
rows. These results immediately imply deviation inequalities for the  
largest
(smallest) eigenvalues of the sample second moment matrix, which in  
turn lead
to results on the condition number of the sample second moment  
matrix. We also
show that trigonometric polynomials in several variables can be  
learned from
$const \cdot D \ln D$ random samples.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701781

---------------------------------------------------------------

5170. OCCUPATION LAWS FOR SOME TIME-NONHOMOGENEOUS MARKOV CHAINS

Zach Dietz and  Sunder Sethuraman

We consider finite-state time-nonhomogeneous Markov chains where the
probability of moving from state $i$ to state $j\neq i$ at time $n$ is
$G(i,j)/n^\zeta$ for a ``generator'' matrix $G$ and strength parameter
$\zeta>0$. In these chains, as time grows, the positions are less and  
less
likely to change, and so form simple models of age-dependent time- 
reinforcing
behaviors. These chains, however, exhibit some different, perhaps  
unexpected,
asymptotic occupation laws depending on parameters.
   Although on the one hand it is shown that the asymptotic position  
converges
to a point-mixture for all $\zeta>0$, on the other hand, the average  
position,
when variously $0<\zeta<1$, $\zeta>1$ or $\zeta=1$, is shown to  
converges to a
constant, a point-mixture, or a distribution $\mu_G$ with no atoms  
and full
support on a certain simplex respectively. The last type of limit can  
be seen
as a sort of ``spreading'' between the cases $0<\zeta<1$ and $\zeta>1$.
   In particular, when $G$ is appropriately chosen, $\mu_G$ is a  
Dirichlet
distribution with certain parameters, reminiscent of results in Polya  
urns.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701798

---------------------------------------------------------------

5171. WEAK CONVERGENCE OF STEP PROCESSES AND AN APPLICATION FOR  
CRITICAL  MULTITYPE BRANCHING PROCESSES WITH IMMIGRATION

M\'arton Isp\'any and Gyula Pap

First, sufficient conditions are given for a system $(U^n_k)_{n\in\NN,
k\in\ZZ_+}$ of random variables in $\RR^d$ and for a diffusion process
$(\cU_t)_{t\in\RR_+}$ such that $\cU^n\distr\cU$, where
$\cU^n_t:=\sum_{k=0}^{\nt}U^n_k$. Next, sufficient conditions are  
given for a
system $(\psi_{n,k})_{n\in\NN, k\in\ZZ_+}$ of Borel functions
$\psi_{n,k}:(\RR^d)^{k+1}\to\RR^p$ and for a measurable mapping
$\Psi:\DD(\RR^d)\to\DD(\RR^p)$ such that
$(\cU^n,\cV^n,\cY^n)\distr(\cU,\cV,\cY)$, where $\cV^n_t:=V^n_{\nt}$  
with
$V^n_k:=\psi_{n,k}(U^n_0,...,U^n_k)$, $\cV:=\Psi(\cU)$,
$\cY^n_t:=\sum_{k=1}^{\nt}V^n_{k-1}\otimes U^n_k$, and
$\cY_t:=\int_0^t\cV_s\otimes\dd\cU_s$. As an application of these  
results,
first a Feller type diffusion approximation is derived for critical  
multitype
branching processes with immigration if the offspring mean matrix is  
primitive,
then the asymptotic behavior of the conditional least squares  
estimator of the
offspring mean matrix is established.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701803

---------------------------------------------------------------

5172. THE CUTOFF PHENOMENON FOR RANDOMIZED RIFFLE SHUFFLES

Guan-Yu Chen and Laurent Saloff-Coste

We study the cutoff phenomenon for generalized riffle shuffles where,  
at each
step, the deck of cards is cut into a random number of packs of  
multinomial
sizes which are then riffled together.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701827

---------------------------------------------------------------

5173. M/M/$\INFTY$ QUEUES IN QUASI-MARKOVIAN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

B. D'Auria

In this paper we investigate an M/M/$\infty$ queue whose parameters  
depend on
an external random environment that we assume to be a quasi-Markovian  
process
with finite state space. For this model we show a recursive formula  
that allows
to compute all the factorial moments for the number of customers in  
the system
in steady state. The used technique is based on the calculation of  
the row
moments of the area of a bidimensional random set. Finally some  
examples where
it is possible to get explicit formulas are given together with  
comparisons
with previous known results.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701842

---------------------------------------------------------------

5174. BSDES WITH STOCHASTIC LIPSCHITZ CONDITION AND QUADRATIC PDES IN  
HILBERT  SPACES

Philippe Briand (IRMAR) and  Fulvia Confortola

This paper is devoted to the study of the differentiability of  
solutions to
real-valued backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs for  
short) with
quadratic generators driven by a cylindrical Wiener process. The main  
novelty
of this problem consists in the fact that the gradient equation of a  
quadratic
BSDE has generators which satisfy stochastic Lipschitz conditions  
involving BMO
martingales. We show some applications to the nonlinear Kolmogorov  
equations.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701849

---------------------------------------------------------------

5175. EXTREMAL PROBABILISTIC PROBLEMS AND HOTELLING'S T^2 TEST UNDER  
SYMMETRY  CONDITION

Iosif Pinelis

We consider Hotelling's T^2 statistic for an arbitrary d-dimensional  
sample.
If the sampling is not too deterministic or inhomogeneous, then under  
zero
means hypothesis, T^2 tends to \chi^2_d in distribution. We show that  
a test
for the orthant symmetry condition introduced by Efron can be  
constructed which
does not essentially differ from the one based on \chi^2_d and at the  
same time
is applicable not only for large random homogeneous samples but for all
multidimensional samples without exceptions. The main assertions have  
the form
of inequalities, not that of limit theorems; these inequalities are  
exact
representing the solutions to certain extremal problems. Let us also  
mention an
auxiliary result which itself may be of interest: \chi_d-(d-1)^{1/2}  
decreases
in distribution in d to its limit N(0,1/2).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701806

---------------------------------------------------------------

5176. RATE OF CONVERGENCE OF PENALIZED-LIKELIHOOD CONTEXT TREE  
ESTIMATORS

Florencia G. Leonardi

We find upper bounds for the probability of error of the penalized- 
likelihood
type context tree estimators, where the trees are not assumed to be  
finite.
This estimators includes the well-known Bayesian Information  
Criterion (BIC).
We show that the maximal decay for the probability of error can be  
achieved
with a penalized term of the form $n^\alpha$, with $0 < \alpha < 1$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701810

---------------------------------------------------------------

5177. DETERMINISTIC MODAL BAYESIAN LOGIC: DERIVE THE BAYESIAN  
INFERENCE WITHIN  THE MODAL LOGIC T

Frederic Dambreville (DGA/CTA/DT/GIP)

In this paper a conditional logic is defined and studied. This  
conditional
logic, DmBL, is constructed as a deterministic counterpart to the  
Bayesian
conditional. The logic is unrestricted, so that any logical  
operations are
allowed. A notion of logical independence is also defined within the  
logic
itself. This logic is shown to be non-trivial and is not reduced to  
classical
propositions. A model is constructed for the logic. Completeness  
results are
proved. It is shown that any unconditioned probability can be  
extended to the
whole logic DmBL. The Bayesian conditional is then recovered from the
probabilistic DmBL. At last, it is shown why DmBL is compliant with  
Lewis'
triviality.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.LO/0701801

---------------------------------------------------------------

5178. FREE DIFFUSIONS AND MATRIX MODELS WITH STRICTLY CONVEX INTERACTION

A. Guionnet and D. Shlyakhtenko

We study solutions to the free stochastic differential equation $dX_t  
= dS_t
- \half DV(X_t)dt$, where $V$ is a locally convex polynomial  
potential in $m$
non-commuting variables. We show that for self-adjoint $V$, the law $ 
\mu_V$ of
a stationary solution is the limit law of a random matrix model, in  
which an
$m$-tuple of self-adjoint matrices are chosen according to the law $ 
\exp(-N
\textrm{Tr}(V(A_1,...,A_m)))dA_1... dA_m$. We show that if $V=V_\beta 
$ depends
on complex parameters $\beta_1,...,\beta_k$, then the law $\mu_V$ is  
analytic
in $\beta$ at least for those $\beta$ for which $V_\beta$ is locally  
convex. In
particular, this gives information on the region of convergence of the
generating function for planar maps.
   We show that the solution $dX_t$ has nice convergence properties  
with respect
to the operator norm. This allows us to derive several properties of  
$C^*$ and
$W^*$ algebras generated by an $m$-tuple with law $\mu_V$. Among them  
is lack
of projections, exactness, the Haagerup property, and embeddability  
into the
ultrapower of the hyperfinite II$_1$ factor. We show that the  
microstates free
entropy $\chi(\tau_V)$ is finite.
   A corollary of these results is the fact that the support of the  
law of any
self-adjoint polynomial in $X_1,...,X_n$ under the law $\mu_V$ is  
connected,
vastly generalizing the case of a single random matrix.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0701787

---------------------------------------------------------------

5179. CLASSICAL AND VARIATIONAL DIFFERENTIABILITY OF BSDES WITH  
QUADRATIC  GROWTH

Stefan Ankirchner and  Peter Imkeller and  Goncalo Reis

We consider Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE) with  
generators
that grow quadratically in the control variable. In a more abstract  
setting, we
first allow both the terminal condition and the generator to depend  
on a vector
parameter $x$. We give sufficient conditions for the solution pair of  
the BSDE
to be differentiable in $x$. These results can be applied to systems of
forward-backward SDE. If the terminal condition of the BSDE is given  
by a
sufficiently smooth function of the terminal value of a forward SDE,  
then its
solution pair is differentiable with respect to the initial vector of  
the
forward equation. Finally we prove sufficient conditions for  
solutions of
quadratic BSDE to be differentiable in the variational sense (Malliavin
differentiable).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701875

---------------------------------------------------------------

5180. PROPAGATION OF CHAOS AND POINCAR\'{E} INEQUALITIES FOR A SYSTEM  
OF  PARTICLES INTERACTING THROUGH THEIR CDF

Benjamin Jourdain (CERMICS) and  Florent Malrieu (IRMAR)

In the particular case of a concave flux function, we are interested  
in the
long time behaviour of the nonlinear process associated to the one- 
dimensional
viscous scalar conservation law. We also consider the particle system  
obtained
by remplacing the cumulative distribution function in the drift  
coefficient of
this nonlinear process by the empirical cdf. We first obtain  
trajectorial
propagation of chaos result. Then, Poincar\'{e} inequalities are used  
to get
explicit estimates concerning the long time behaviour of both the  
nonlinear
process and the particle system.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701879

---------------------------------------------------------------

5181. LOCAL GAUSSIAN FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AIRY AND DISCRETE PNG PROCESSES

Jonas H\"agg

We prove that the Airy process, A(t), locally fluctuates like a Brownian
motion. In the same spirit we also show that in a certain scaling  
limit, the so
called discrete polynuclear growth (PNG) process behaves like a Brownian
motion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701880

---------------------------------------------------------------

5182. RICCI CURVATURE OF MARKOV CHAINS ON METRIC SPACES

Yann Ollivier

We define the Ricci curvature of Markov chains on metric spaces as a  
local
contraction coefficient of the random walk acting on the space of  
probability
measures equipped with a Wasserstein transportation distance. For  
Brownian
motion on a Riemannian manifold this gives back the value of Ricci  
curvature of
a tangent vector. Examples of positively curved spaces for this  
definition
include the discrete cube and discrete versions of the Ornstein-- 
Uhlenbeck
process. Moreover this generalization is consistent with the Bakry-- 
\'Emery
Ricci curvature for Brownian motion with a drift on a Riemannian  
manifold.
   Positive Ricci curvature is easily shown to imply a spectral gap  
and a
L\'evy--Gromov-like Gaussian concentration theorem. These bounds are  
sharp in
several interesting examples.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701886

---------------------------------------------------------------

5183. MEASURE-PRESERVING TRANSFORMATIONS OF VOLTERRA GAUSSIAN  
PROCESSES AND  RELATED BRIDGES

Celine Jost

We consider Volterra Gaussian processes on [0,T], where T>0 is a  
fixed time
horizon. These are processes of type X_t=\int^t_0 z_X(t,s)dW_s, t\in 
[0,T],
where z_X is a square-integrable kernel, and W is a standard Brownian  
motion.
An example is fractional Brownian motion. By using classical  
techniques from
operator theory, we derive measure-preserving transformations of X,  
and their
inherently related bridges of X. As a closely connected result, we  
obtain a
Fourier-Laguerre series expansion for the first Wiener chaos of a  
Gaussian
martingale over [0,\infty).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701888

---------------------------------------------------------------

5184. EXPANSION PROPERTIES OF A RANDOM REGULAR GRAPH AFTER RANDOM  
VERTEX  DELETIONS

Catherine Greenhill (University of New South Wales) and  Fred B.  
Holt  (University of Washington), Nicholas Wormald (University of  
Waterloo)

We investigate the following vertex percolation process. Starting with a
random regular graph of constant degree, delete each vertex  
independently with
probability p, where p=n^{-alpha} and alpha=alpha(n) is bounded away  
from 0. We
show that a.a.s. the resulting graph has a connected component of  
size n-o(n)
which is an expander, and all other components are trees of bounded  
size.
Sharper results are obtained with extra conditions on alpha. These  
results have
an application to the cost of repairing a certain peer-to-peer  
network after
random failures of nodes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0701863

---------------------------------------------------------------

5185. RECORD INDICES AND AGE-ORDERED FREQUENCIES IN GIBBS RANDOM  
PARTITIONS

Robert C. Griffiths and Dario Span\'{o}

The distribution of age-ordered frequencies arising from an exchangeable
Gibbs partition is studied in relation with the distribution of the  
positions
at which new mutations appear in a sample.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701897

---------------------------------------------------------------

5186. DIFFERENTIATING SIGMA-FIELDS FOR GAUSSIAN AND SHIFTED GAUSSIAN  
PROCESSES

S\'{e}bastien Darses (PMA) and  Ivan Nourdin (PMA) and  Giovanni  
Peccati  (LSTA)

We study the notions of differentiating and non-differentiating sigma- 
fields
in the general framework of (possibly drifted) Gaussian processes, and
characterize their invariance properties under equivalent changes of
probability measure. As an application, we investigate the class of  
stochastic
derivatives associated with shifted fractional Brownian motions. We  
finally
establish conditions for the existence of a jointly measurable  
version of the
differentiated process, and we outline a general framework for  
stochastic
embedded equations.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701910

---------------------------------------------------------------

5187. LOCAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR LADDER EPOCHS

Vladimir Vatutin and  Vitali Wachtel

Let {S_n, n=0,1,2,...} be a random walk generated by a sequence of  
i.i.d.
random variables X_1, X_2,... and let tau be the first descending  
ladder epoch.
Assuming that the distribution of X_1 belongs to the domain of  
attraction of an
alpha-stable law, we study the asymptotic behavior of P(tau=n).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701914

---------------------------------------------------------------

5188. PROLIFERATING PARASITES IN DIVIDING CELLS : KIMMEL'S BRANCHING  
MODEL  REVISITED

Vincent Bansaye (PMA)

We consider a branching model introduced by M. Kimmel for cell  
division with
parasite infection. Cells contain proliferating parasites which are  
shared
randomly between the two daughter cells when they divide. We  
determine the
probability that the organism recovers, meaning that the asymptotic  
proprotion
of contaminated cells vanishes. We study the tree of contaminated  
cells, give
the asymptotic number of contaminated cells and the asymptotic  
proportions of
contaminated cells with a given number of parasites. This depends on  
domains
inherited from the behavior of branching processes in random  
environment (BPRE)
and given by the bivariate value of the means of parasite offsprings.  
In one of
these domains, the convergence of proportions holds in probability,  
the limit
is deterministic and given by the Yaglom quasistationary  
distribution. Moreover
we get an interpretation of the limit of the Q-process as the size- 
biased
quasistationary distribution.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701917

---------------------------------------------------------------

5189. ON LOWER LIMITS AND EQUIVALENCES FOR DISTRIBUTION TAILS OF  
RANDOMLY  STOPPED SUMS

Denis Denisov and  Serguei Foss and  Dmitry Korshunov

For a distribution $F^{*\tau}$ of a random sum $S_\tau=\xi_1+...+\xi_ 
\tau$ of
i.i.d. random variables with a common distribution $F$ on the half-line
$[0,\infty)$, we study the limits of the ratios of tails
$\bar{F^{*\tau}}(x)/\bar F(x)$ as $x\to\infty$ (here $\tau$ is an  
independent
counting random variable). We also consider applications of obtained  
results to
random walks, compound Poisson distributions, infinitely divisible  
laws, and
sub-critical branching processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701920

---------------------------------------------------------------

5190. ON SEVERAL TWO-BOUNDARY PROBLEMS FOR A PARTICULAR CLASS OF L 
\'{E}VY  PROCESSES

Tetyana Kadankova and  No\"{e}l Veraverbeke

Several two-boundary problems are solved for a special L\'{e}vy  
process: the
Poisson process with an exponential component. The jumps of this  
process are
controlled by a homogeneous Poisson process, the positive jump size
distribution is arbitrary, while the distribution of the negative  
jumps is
exponential. Closed form expressions are obtained for the integral  
transforms
of the joint distribution of the first exit time from an interval and  
the value
of the overshoot through boundaries at the first exit time. Also the  
joint
distribution of the first entry time into the interval and the value  
of the
process at this time instant are determined in terms of integral  
transforms.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0701924

---------------------------------------------------------------

5191. KERNEL METHODS IN MACHINE LEARNING

Thomas Hofmann and  Bernhard Sch\"olkopf and  Alexander J. Smola

We review machine learning methods employing positive definite  
kernels. These
methods formulate learning and estimation problems in a reproducing  
kernel
Hilbert space (RKHS) of functions defined on the data domain,  
expanded in terms
of a kernel. Working in linear spaces of function has the benefit of
facilitating the construction and analysis of learning algorithms  
while at the
same time allowing large classes of functions. The latter include  
nonlinear
functions as well as functions defined on non-vectorial data. We  
cover a wide
range of methods, ranging from binary classifiers to sophisticated  
methods for
estimation with structured data.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701907

---------------------------------------------------------------

5192. EVALUATION OF FORMAL POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS VIA MARKOV CHAIN  
ARGUMENTS

Morris L. Eaton and  James P. Hobert and  Galin L. Jones and Wen-Lin Lai

We consider evaluation of proper posterior distributions obtained from
improper prior distributions. Our context is estimating a bounded  
function
$\phi$ of a parameter when the loss is quadratic. If the posterior  
mean of
$\phi$ is admissible for all bounded $\phi$ the posterior is \textit 
{strongly
admissible}. In this paper, we present sufficient conditions for strong
admissibility. These conditions involve the recurrence of a symmetric  
Markov
chain associated with the estimation problem. We develop general  
sufficient
conditions for recurrence of general state space Markov chains that  
are also of
independent interest. Our main example concerns the $p$-dimensional
multivariate normal distribution with mean vector $\theta$ when the  
prior
distribution has the form $g_{0}(\theta) d\theta$ on the parameter space
$\mathbb{R}^{p}$. Conditions on $g_{0}$ for strong admissibility of the
posterior are provided.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0701938

---------------------------------------------------------------

5193. EXPONENTIAL CONTROL OF OVERLAP IN THE REPLICA METHOD FOR P- 
SPIN  SHERRINGTON-KIRKPATRICK MODEL

Dmitry Panchenko

Recently, Michel Talagrand computed the large deviations limit
$\lim_{N\to\infty}(Na)^{-1}\log \e Z_N^a$ for the moments of the  
partition
function $Z_N$ in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model for all real $a 
\geq 0.$ For
$a\geq 1$ the limit is given by Guerra's inverse bound and this  
result extends
the classical physicist's replica method that corresponds to integer  
$a.$ We
give a new proof for $a\geq 1$ in the case of the pure $p$-spin SK  
model that
provides a strong exponential control of the overlap.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0701074

---------------------------------------------------------------

5194. ASYMPTOTICS OF NON-INTERSECTING BROWNIAN MOTIONS AND A 4 X 4   
RIEMANN-HILBERT PROBLEM

Evi Daems and  Arno Kuijlaars and  and Wim Veys

We consider n one-dimensional Brownian motions, such that n/2 Brownian
motions start at time t=0 in the starting point a and end at time t=1  
in the
endpoint b and the other n/2 Brownian motions start at time t=0 at  
the point -a
and end at time t=1 in the point -b, conditioned that the n Brownian  
paths do
not intersect in the whole time interval (0,1). The correlation  
functions of
the positions of the non-intersecting Brownian motions have a  
determinantal
form with a kernel that is expressed in terms of multiple Hermite  
polynomials
of mixed type. We analyze this kernel in the large n limit for the  
case ab<1/2.
We find that the limiting mean density of the positions of the  
Brownian motions
is supported on one or two intervals and that the correlation kernel  
has the
usual scaling limits from random matrix theory, namely the sine  
kernel in the
bulk and the Airy kernel near the edges.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CV/0701923

---------------------------------------------------------------

5195. A COMBINATORIAL METHOD FOR CALCULATING THE MOMENTS OF L\'EVY AREA

Daniel Levin and Mark Wildon

We present a new way to compute the moments of the L\'evy area of a
two-dimensional Brownian motion. Our approach uses iterated integrals  
and
combinatorial arguments involving the shuffle product.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702002

---------------------------------------------------------------

5196. FINITE SIZE SCALING FOR THE CORE OF LARGE RANDOM HYPERGRAPHS

Amir Dembo and Andrea Montanari

The (two) core of an hyper-graph is the maximal collection of hyper- 
edges
within which no vertex appears only once. It is of importance in  
tasks such as
efficiently solving a large linear system over GF[2], or iterative  
decoding of
low-density parity-check codes used over the binary erasure channel.  
Similar
structures emerge in a variety of NP-hard combinatorial optimization and
decision problems, from vertex cover to satisfiability.
   For a uniformly chosen random hyper-graph of m=n\rho vertices and n
hyper-edges, each consisting of the same fixed number l >= 3 of  
vertices, the
size of the core exhibits for large n a first order phase transition,  
changing
from o(n) for rho> rho_c to a positive fraction of n for rho<rho_c,  
with a
transition window size Theta(n^{-1/2}) around rho_c>0. Analyzing the
corresponding `leaf removal' algorithm, we determine the associated  
finite size
scaling behavior. In particular, if rho is inside the scaling window  
(more
precisely, rho = rho_c+r n^{-1/2}, the probability of having a core  
of size
Theta(n) has a limit strictly between 0 and 1, and a leading  
correction of
order Theta(n^{-1/6}). The correction admits a sharp characterization  
in terms
of the distribution of a Brownian motion with quadratic shift, from  
which it
inherits the scaling with n. This behavior is expected to be  
universal for wide
collection of combinatorial problems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702007

---------------------------------------------------------------

5197. ON STEIN'S METHOD AND PERTURBATIONS

Andrew D. Barbour and  Vydas Cekanavicius and Aihua Xia

Stein's (1972) method is a very general tool for assessing the  
quality of
approximation of the distribution of a random element by another, often
simpler, distribution. In applications of Stein's method, one needs to
establish a Stein identity for the approximating distribution, solve  
the Stein
equation and estimate the behaviour of the solutions in terms of the  
metrics
under study. For some Stein equations, solutions with good properties  
are
known; for others, this is not the case. Barbour and Xia (1999)  
introduced a
perturbation method for Poisson approximation, in which Stein  
identities for a
large class of compound Poisson and translated Poisson distributions  
are viewed
as perturbations of a Poisson distribution. In this paper, it is  
shown that the
method can be extended to very general settings, including  
perturbations of
normal, Poisson, compound Poisson, binomial and Poisson process  
approximations
in terms of various metrics such as the Kolmogorov, Wasserstein and  
total
variation metrics. Examples are provided to illustrate how the general
perturbation method can be applied.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702008

---------------------------------------------------------------

5198. ON A RANDOMIZED PNG MODEL WITH A COLUMNAR DEFECT

Vincent Beffara (UMPA-ENSL) and  Vladas Sidoravicius (BR-IMPA) and   
Maria  Eulalia Vares (BR-CBPF)

We study a variant of poly-nuclear growth where the level boundaries  
perform
continuous-time, discrete-space random walks, and study how its  
asymptotic
behavior is affected by the presence of a columnar defect on the  
line. We prove
that there is a non-trivial phase transition in the strength of the
perturbation, above which the law of large numbers for the height  
function is
modified.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702012

---------------------------------------------------------------

5199. A FUNCTIONAL CLT FOR THE OCCUPATION TIME OF STATE-DEPENDENT  
BRANCHING  RANDOM WALK

Matthias Birkner and  Iljana Z\"ahle

We show that the centred occupation time process of the origin of a  
system of
critical binary branching random walks in dimension $d \ge 3$,  
started off
either from a Poisson field or in equilibrium, when suitably normalised,
converges to a Brownian motion in $d \ge 4$. In $d=3$, the limit  
process is
fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter 3/4 when starting in
equilibrium, and a related Gaussian process when starting from a  
Poisson field.
For (dependent) branching random walks with state dependent branching  
rate we
obtain convergence in f.d.d. to the same limit process, and for $d=3$  
also a
functional limit theorem.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702020

---------------------------------------------------------------

5200. GRAPHS WITH SPECIFIED DEGREE DISTRIBUTIONS, SIMPLE EPIDEMICS  
AND LOCAL  VACCINATION STRATEGIES

Tom Britton and  Svante Janson and Anders Martin-Lof

Consider a random graph, having a pre-specified degree distribution F  
but
other than that being uniformly distributed, describing the social  
structure
(friendship) in a large community. Suppose one individual in the  
community is
externally infected by an infectious disease and that the disease has  
its
course by assuming that infected individuals infect their not yet  
infected
friends independently with probability p. For this situation the paper
determines R_0 and tau_0, the basic reproduction number and the  
asymptotic
final size in case of a major outbreak. Further, the paper looks at some
different local vaccination strategies where individuals are chosen  
randomly
and vaccinated, or friends of the selected individuals are  
vaccinated, prior to
the introduction of the disease. For the studied vaccination  
strategies the
paper determines R_v: the reproduction number, and tau_v: the  
asymptotic final
proportion infected in case of a major outbreak, after vaccinating a  
fraction
v.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702021

---------------------------------------------------------------

5201. WIGNER RANDOM MATRICES WITH NON-SYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED ENTRIES

Sandrine Peche and Alexander Soshnikov

We show that the spectral radius of an $N\times N$ random symmetric  
matrix
with i.i.d. bounded centered but non-symmetrically distributed  
entries is
bounded from above by $ 2 \*\sigma + o(N^{-6/11+\epsilon}), $ where $ 
\sigma^2 $
is the variance of the matrix entries and $\epsilon $ is an arbitrary  
small
positive number. Our bound improves the earlier results by Z.F\"{u} 
redi and
J.Koml\'{o}s (1981), and the recent bound obtained by Van Vu (2005).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702035

---------------------------------------------------------------

5202. ON THE VARIANCE OF THE OPTIMAL ALIGNMENT SCORE FOR AN  
ASYMMETRIC SCORING  FUNCTION

Christian Houdr\'e and Heinrich Matzinger

We investigate the variance of the optimal alignment score of two  
independent
iid binary, with parameter 1/2, sequences of length $n$. The scoring  
function
is such that one letter has a somewhat larger score than the other  
letter. In
this setting, we prove that the variance is of order $n$, and this  
confirms
Waterman's conjecture in this case.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702036

---------------------------------------------------------------

5203. A LARGE DEVIATION PRINCIPLE IN H\"OLDER NORM FOR MULTIPLE  
FRACTIONAL  INTEGRALS

Marta Sanz-Sol\'e and  Iv\'an Torrecilla-Tarantino

For a fractional Brownian motion $B^H$ with Hurst parameter
$H\in]{1/4},{1/2}[\cup]{1/2},1[$, multiple indefinite integrals on a  
simplex
are constructed and the regularity of their sample paths are studied.  
Then, it
is proved that the family of probability laws of the processes  
obtained by
replacing $B^H$ by $\epsilon^{{1/2}} B^H$ satisfies a large deviation  
principle
in H\"older norm. The definition of the multiple integrals relies upon a
representation of the fractional Brownian motion in terms of a  
stochastic
integral with respect to a standard Brownian motion. For the large  
deviation
principle, the abstract general setting given by Ledoux in [Lecture  
Notes in
Math., vol. 1426 (1990) 1-14] is used.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702049

---------------------------------------------------------------

5204. H\"{O}LDER REGULARITY FOR OPERATOR SCALING STABLE RANDOM FIELDS

Hermine Bierm\'{e} (MAP5) and  C\'{e}line Lacaux (IECN)

We investigate the sample paths regularity of operator scaling alpha- 
stable
random fields. Such fields were introduced as anisotropic  
generalizations of
self-similar fields and satisfy a scaling property for a real matrix  
E. In the
case of harmonizable operator scaling random fields, the sample paths  
are
locally H\"{o}lderian and their H\"{o}lder regularity is  
characterized by the
eigen decomposition with respect to E. In particular, the directional
H\"{o}lder regularity may vary and is given by the eigenvalues of E.  
In the
case of moving average operator scaling random alpha-stable random  
fields, with
0<alpha<2, the sample paths are almost surely discontinous.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702050

---------------------------------------------------------------

5205. LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR EMPIRICAL PATH MEASURES IN CYCLES OF  
INTEGER  PARTITIONS

Stefan Adams

Consider a large system of $N$ Brownian motions in $\mathbb{R}^d$ on  
some
fixed time interval $[0,\beta]$ with symmetrised initial-terminal  
condition.
That is, for any $i$, the terminal location of the $i$-th motion is  
affixed to
the initial point of the $\sigma(i)$-th motion, where $\sigma$ is a  
uniformly
distributed random permutation of $1,...,N$.
   In this paper, we describe the large-N behaviour of the empirical  
path
measure (the mean of the Dirac measures in the $N$ paths) when $
\Lambda\uparrow\mathbb{R}^d $ and $ N/|\Lambda|\to\rho $. The rate  
function is
given as a variational formula involving a certain entropy functional  
and a
Fenchel-Legendre transform.
   Depending on the dimension and the density $ \rho $, there is phase
transition behaviour for the empirical path measure. For certain  
parameters
(high density, large time horizon) and dimensions $ d\ge 3 $ the  
empirical path
measure is not supported on all paths $ [0,\infty)\to\mathbb{R}^d $  
which
contain a bridge path of any finite multiple of the time horizon $ [0, 
\beta] $.
For dimensions $ d=1,2 $, and for small densities and small time  
horizon $
[0,\beta] $ in dimensions $ d\ge 3$, the empirical path measure is  
supported on
those paths. In the first regime a finite fraction of the motions  
lives in
cycles of infinite length.
   We outline that this transition leads to an empirical path measure
interpretation of {\it Bose-Einstein condensation}, known for systems of
Bosons.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702053

---------------------------------------------------------------

5206. MIXTURES IN NON STABLE LEVY PROCESSES

Nicola Cufaro Petroni

We analyze the Levy processes produced by means of two interconnected  
classes
of non stable, infinitely divisible distribution: the Variance Gamma  
and the
Student laws. While the Variance Gamma family is closed under  
convolution, the
Student one is not: this makes its time evolution more complicated.  
We prove
that -- at least for one particular type of Student processes  
suggested by
recent empirical results, and for integral times -- the distribution  
of the
process is a mixture of other types of Student distributions,  
randomized by
means of a new probability distribution. The mixture is such that  
along the
time the asymptotic behavior of the probability density functions always
coincide with that of the generating Student law. We put forward the  
conjecture
that this can be a general feature of the Student processes. We  
finally analyze
the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process driven by our Levy noises and show a few
simulation of it.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702058

---------------------------------------------------------------

5207. LINE-OF-SIGHT PERCOLATION

Bela Bollobas and Svante Janson and Oliver Riordan

Given $\omega\ge 1$, let $Z^2_{(\omega)}$ be the graph with vertex  
set $Z^2$
in which two vertices are joined if they agree in one coordinate and  
differ by
at most $\omega$ in the other. (Thus $Z^2_{(1)}$ is precisely $Z^2$.)  
Let
$p_c(\omega)$ be the critical probability for site percolation in
$Z^2_{(\omega)}$. Extending recent results of Frieze, Kleinberg, Ravi  
and
Debany, we show that $\lim_{\omega\to\infty} \omega\pc(\omega)=\log 
(3/2)$. We
also prove analogues of this result on the $n$-by-$n$ grid and in higher
dimensions, the latter involving interesting connections to Gilbert's  
continuum
percolation model. To prove our results, we explore the component of  
the origin
in a certain non-standard way, and show that this exploration is well
approximated by a certain branching process.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702061

---------------------------------------------------------------

5208. ANCESTRAL PROCESSES WITH SELECTION: BRANCHING AND MORAN MODELS

E. Baake and  R. Bialowons

We consider two versions of stochastic population models with  
mutation and
selection. The first approach relies on a multitype branching  
process; here,
individuals reproduce and change type (i.e., mutate) independently of  
each
other, without restriction on population size. We analyze the  
equilibrium
behaviour of this model, both in the forward and in the backward  
direction of
time; the backward point of view emerges if the ancestry of  
individuals chosen
randomly from the present population is traced back into the past.
   The second approach is the Moran model with selection. Here, the  
population
has constant size N. Individuals reproduce (at rates depending on  
their types),
the offspring inherits the parent's type, and replaces a randomly chosen
individual (to keep population size constant). Independently of the
reproduction process, individuals can change type. As in the  
branching model,
we consider the ancestral lines of single individuals chosen from the
equilibrium population. We use analytical results of Fearnhead (2002) to
determine the explicit properties, and parameter dependence, of the  
ancestral
distribution of types, and its relationship with the stationary  
distribution in
forward time.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/q-bio.PE/0702002

---------------------------------------------------------------

5209. ISOSPIN ASYMMETRY IN NUCLEI AND NUCLEAR SYMMETRY ENERGY

Tapan Mukhopadhyay and D.N. Basu

Binding energy of isospin asymmetric nuclei can be accessed with  
minimally
modified formula along the lines of the liquid droplet model by  
partitioning
the symmetry term into volume and surface terms. The volume symmetry  
energy
coefficient extracted from finite nuclei provides a constraint on the  
nuclear
symmetry energy. This approach also yields the neutron skin of a  
finite nucleus
through its relationship with the volume and surface symmetry terms  
and the
Coulomb energy coefficient. The symmetry energy at saturation density  
obtained
from the isoscalar as well as isovector components of the density  
dependent M3Y
effective interaction is found to be in close agreement with the volume
symmetry energy coefficient extracted from the measured atomic masses.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/nucl-th/0605001

---------------------------------------------------------------

5210. COMPUTING THE LOEWNER DRIVING PROCESS OF RANDOM CURVES IN THE  
HALF PLANE

Tom Kennedy

We simulate several models of random curves in the half plane and  
numerically
compute their stochastic driving process (as given by the Loewner  
equation).
Our models include models whose scaling limit is the Schramm-Loewner  
evolution
(SLE) and models for which it is not. We study several tests of  
whether the
driving process is Brownian motion. We find that just testing the  
normality of
the process at a fixed time is not effective at determining if the  
process is
Brownian motion. Tests that involve the independence of the  
increments of
Brownian motion are much more effective. We also study the zipper  
algorithm for
numerically computing the driving function of a simple curve. We give an
implementation of this algorithm which runs in a time O(N^1.35)  
rather than the
usual O(N^2), where N is the number of points on the curve.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702071

---------------------------------------------------------------

5211. LIMIT THEOREMS ON LOCALLY COMPACT ABELIAN GROUPS

Matyas Barczy and  Alexander Bendikov and  Gyula Pap

We prove limit theorems for row sums of a rowwise independent  
infinitesimal
array of random variables with values in a locally compact Abelian  
group. First
we give a proof of Gaiser's theorem, since it does not have an easy  
access and
it is not complete. This theorem gives sufficient conditions for  
convergence of
the row sums, but the limit measure can not have a nondegenerate  
idempotent
factor. Then we prove necessary and sufficient conditions for  
convergence of
the row sums, where the limit measure can be also a nondegenerate  
Haar measure
on a compact subgroup. Finally, we investigate special cases: the  
torus group,
the group of p-adic integers and the p-adic solenoid.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702078

---------------------------------------------------------------

5212. ON A NON-CLASSICAL INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE

Youri Davydov (Universite de Lille 1) and  Vladimir Rotar (San Diego  
State  University)

We consider the invariance principle without the classical condition of
asymptotic negligibility of individual terms. More precisely, we  
explore the
difference of the following two distributions in the space C (of  
continuous
functions on [0,1]). The first is the distribution of the continuous  
piecewise
linear partial-sum process generated by a sequence of independent random
variables, and the second is the distribution of the similar process  
generated
by the sequence of normal r.v.'s with the same first two moments. The  
novelty
is that the condition of negligibility of the r.v.'s is not imposed. We
establish a necessary and sufficient condition of the weak  
convergence of the
difference mentioned to zero measure in C.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702085

---------------------------------------------------------------

5213. DIVERGENCE THEOREMS IN PATH SPACE III: HYPOELLIPTIC DIFFUSIONS  
AND  BEYOND

Denis Bell

Let $x$ denote a diffusion process defined on a closed compact  
manifold. In
an earlier article, the author introduced a new approach to constructing
admissible vector fields on the associated space of paths, under the  
assumption
of ellipticity of $x$. In this article, this method is extended to yield
similar results for degenerate diffusion processes. In particular, these
results apply to non-elliptic diffusions satisfying H\"ormander's  
condition.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702092

---------------------------------------------------------------

5214. EXTINCTION VERSUS UNBOUNDED GROWTH; HABILITATION THESIS OF THE   
UNIVERSITY ERLANGEN-N\"URNBERG

Jan M. Swart

Certain Markov processes, or deterministic evolution equations, have the
property that they are dual to a stochastic process that exhibits  
extinction
versus unbounded growth, i.e., the total mass in such a process  
either becomes
zero, or grows without bounds as time tends to infinity. If this is  
the case,
then this phenomenon can often be used to determine the invariant  
measures, or
fixed points, of the process originally under consideration, and to  
study
convergence to equilibrium. This principle, which has been known  
since early
work on multitype branching processes, is here demonstrated on three new
examples with applications in the theory of interacting particle  
systems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702095

---------------------------------------------------------------

5215. A NOTE ON ERGODIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF SELF-SIMILAR VOLTERRA  
GAUSSIAN  PROCESSES

Celine Jost

We derive a class of ergodic transformations of self-similar Gaussian
processes that are Volterra, i.e. of type X_t = int^t_0 z_X(t,s)dW_s,  
t>0,
where z_X is a deterministic kernel and W is a standard Brownian motion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702096

---------------------------------------------------------------

5216. RANDOM WALK IN MARKOVIAN ENVIROMENT

Dmitry Dolgopyat and  Gerhard Keller and  and Carlangelo Liverani

We prove a quenched central limit theorem for random walks with bounded
increments in a randomly evolving environment on Zd. We assume that the
transition probabilities of the walk depend not too strongly on the  
environment
and that the evolution of the environment is Markovian with strong  
spatial and
temporal mixing properties.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702100

---------------------------------------------------------------

5217. TAIL PROBABILITIES FOR INFINITE SERIES OF REGULARLY VARYING  
RANDOM  VECTORS

Henrik Hult and Gennady Samorodnitsky

A random vector $X$ with representation $X = \sum_{j \geq 0} A_j Z_j$ is
considered. Here $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically
distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices,
``predictable'' with respect to the sequence $(Z_j)$. The  
distribution of $Z_1$
is assumed to be multivariate regular varying. Moment conditions on the
matrices $(A_j)$ are determined under which the distribution of $X$ is
regularly varying and, in fact, ``inherits'' its regular variation  
from that of
$(Z_j)$'s. We compute the associated limiting measure. Examples  
include linear
processes, random coefficient linear processes such as stochastic  
recurrence
equations, random sums, and stochastic integrals.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702112

---------------------------------------------------------------

5218. DYNAMICAL PROPERTIES OF A TAGGED PARTICLE IN THE TOTALLY  
ASYMMETRIC  SIMPLE EXCLUSION PROCESS WITH THE STEP-TYPE INITIAL  
CONDITION

T. Imamura and  T. Sasamoto

The one-dimensional totally asymmetric simple exclusion process  
(TASEP) is
considered. We study the time evolution property of a tagged particle  
in TASEP
with the step-type initial condition. Calculated is the multi-time joint
distribution function of its position. Using the relation of the  
dynamics of
TASEP to the Schur process, we show that the function is represented  
as the
Fredholm determinant. We also study the scaling limit. The  
universality of the
largest eigenvalue in the random matrix theory is realized in the  
limit. When
the hopping rates of all particles are the same, it is found that the  
joint
distribution function converges to that of the Airy process after the  
time at
whichthe particle begins to move. On the other hand, when there are  
several
particles with small hopping rate in front of a tagged particle, the  
limiting
process changes at a certain time from the Airy process to the  
process of the
largest eigenvalue in the Hermitian multi-matrix model with external  
sources.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0702009

---------------------------------------------------------------

5219. MELLIN TRANSFORM AND SUBORDINATION LAWS IN FRACTIONAL  
DIFFUSION  PROCESSES

Francesco Mainardi and  Gianni Pagnini and Rudolf Gorenflo

The Mellin transform is usually applied in probability theory to the  
product
of independent random variables. In recent times the machinery of the  
Mellin
transform has been adopted to describe the L\'evy stable  
distributions, and
more generally the probability distributions governed by generalized  
diffusion
equations of fractional order in space and/or in time. In these cases  
the
related stochastic processes are self-similar and are simply referred  
to as
fractional diffusion processes. We provide some integral formulas  
involving the
distributions of these processes that can be interpreted in terms of
subordination laws.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702133

---------------------------------------------------------------

5220. LOCAL ENERGY STATISTICS IN DIRECTED POLYMERS

Irina Kourkova (PMA)

Recently, Bauke and Mertens conjectured that the local statistics of  
energies
in random spin systems with discrete spin space should, in most  
circumstances,
be the same as in the random energy model. We show that this  
conjecture holds
true as well for directed polymers in random environment. We also  
show that,
under certain conditions, this conjecture holds for directed polymers  
even if
energy levels that grow moderately with the volume of the system are
considered.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702149

---------------------------------------------------------------

5221. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DIFFIE-HELLMAN KEY EXCHANGE  
PROTOCOL IN A  FINITE GROUP

I. Florescu and  A. Myasnikov and A. Mahalanobis

This paper presents a novel methodology to test the security of the
Diffie-Hellman public key exchange protocol. The security of many  
cryptographic
schemes rely on the hardness of this problem. We are presenting a purely
statistical test to compare this problem in different groups. We are  
using
groups included in the Zp group with p prime as a major example,  
however the
methods presented are not restricted to these groups. The  
presentation of the
results is primarily intended to introduce novel applications of  
statistical
methodologies to the area of mathematical cryptography. As such we will
emphasize the cryptographical aspects of the work more than the  
statistical
notions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0702155

---------------------------------------------------------------

5222. PATHWISE INEQUALITIES FOR LOCAL TIME: APPLICATIONS TO  
SKOROKHOD  EMBEDDINGS AND OPTIMAL STOPPING

A.M.G.Cox and  D.Hobson and J.Ob\l\'oj

We develop a class of pathwise inequalities of the form $H(B_t)\ge M_t+
F(L_t)$, where $B_t$ is Brownian motion, $L_t$ its local time at zero  
and $M_t$
a local martingale. The concrete nature of the representation makes the
inequality useful for a variety of applications. In this work, we use  
the
inequalities to derive constructions and optimality results of Vallois'
Skorokhod embeddings. We discuss their financial interpretation in  
the context
of robust pricing and hedging of options written on the local time.  
In the
final part of the paper we use the inequalities to solve a class of  
optimal
stopping problems of the form $\sup_\tau E[F(L_\tau)-\int_0^\tau
\beta(B_s)ds]$. The solution is given via a minimal solution to a  
system of
differential equations and thus resembles the maximality principle  
described by
Peskir. Throughout, the emphasis is placed on the novelty and  
simplicity of the
techniques.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702173

---------------------------------------------------------------

5223. DIFFERENCE APPROXIMATION FOR LOCAL TIMES OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL  
DIFFUSIONS

Alexey M. Kulik

We consider sequences of additive functionals of difference  
approximations
for uniformly non-degenerate multidimensional diffusions. The  
conditions are
given, sufficient for such a sequence to converge weakly to a W- 
functional of
the limiting process. The class of the W-functionals, that can be  
obtained as
the limiting ones, is completely described in the terms of the  
associated
W-measures, and coincides with the class of the functionals that are  
regular
w.r.t. the phase variable.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702175

---------------------------------------------------------------

5224. DIFFUSION APPROXIMATION FOR EQUILIBRIUM KAWASAKI DYNAMICS IN  
CONTINUUM

Y.G. Kondratiev and  O.V. Kutoviy and  E.W. Lytvynov

A Kawasaki dynamics in continuum is a dynamics of an infinite system of
interacting particles in $\mathbb R^d$ which randomly hop over the  
space. In
this paper, we deal with an equilibrium Kawasaki dynamics which has a  
Gibbs
measure $\mu$ as invariant measure. We study a diffusive limit of such a
dynamics, derived through a scaling of both the jump rate and time.  
Under weak
assumptions on the potential of pair interaction, $\phi$, (in  
particular,
admitting a singularity of $\phi$ at zero), we prove that, on a set  
of smooth
local functions, the generator of the scaled dynamics converges to the
generator of an equilibrium diffusive dynamics of an infinite system of
interacting particles. If the set on which the generators converge is  
a core
for the diffusion generator, the latter result implies the weak  
convergence of
finite-dimensional distributions of the corresponding equilibrium  
processes. In
particular, if the potential $\phi$ is from $C_{\mathrm b}^3(\R^d)$ and
sufficiently quickly converges to zero at infinity, we conclude from  
a result
in [Choi {\it et al.}, {J. Math. Phys.} {39} (1998) 6509--6536] that the
convergence of processes holds when the limiting diffusion is the  
gradient
stochastic dynamics.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702178

---------------------------------------------------------------

5225. FINITE-SIZE EFFECTS FOR ANISOTROPIC BOOTSTRAP PERCOLATION:  
LOGARITHMIC  CORRECTIONS

Aernout C.D. van Enter and Tim Hulshof

In this note we analyze an anisotropic, two-dimensional bootstrap  
percolation
model introduced by Gravner and Griffeath. We present upper and lower  
bounds on
the finite-size effects. We discuss the similarities with the semi- 
oriented
model introduced by Duarte.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/cond-mat/0702145

---------------------------------------------------------------

5226. PARABOLIC HARNACK INEQUALITY AND HEAT KERNEL ESTIMATES FOR  
RANDOM WALKS  WITH LONG RANGE JUMPS

M.T. Barlow and  R.F. Bass and  and T. Kumagai

We investigate the relationships between the parabolic Harnack  
inequality,
heat kernel estimates, some geometric conditions, and some analytic  
conditions
for random walks with long range jumps. Unlike the case of diffusion  
processes,
the parabolic Harnack inequality does not, in general, imply the  
corresponding
heat kernel estimates.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702221

---------------------------------------------------------------

5227. RIGOROUS CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR CRITICAL PROBABILITIES

Oliver Riordan and  Mark Walters

We use the method of Balister, Bollobas and Walters to give rigorous  
99.9999%
confidence intervals for the critical probabilities for site and bond
percolation on the 11 Archimedean lattices. In our computer  
calculations, the
emphasis is on simplicity and ease of verification, rather than  
obtaining the
best possible results. Nevertheless, we obtain intervals of width at  
most
0.0005 in all cases.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702232

---------------------------------------------------------------

5228. A RANDOMIZED KACZMARZ ALGORITHM WITH EXPONENTIAL CONVERGENCE

Thomas Strohmer and Roman Vershynin

The Kaczmarz method for solving linear systems of equations is an  
iterative
algorithm that has found many applications ranging from computer  
tomography to
digital signal processing. Despite the popularity of this method, useful
theoretical estimates for its rate of convergence are still scarce. We
introduce a randomized version of the Kaczmarz method for consistent,
overdetermined linear systems and we prove that it converges with  
expected
exponential rate. Furthermore, this is the first solver whose rate  
does not
depend on the number of equations in the system. The solver does not  
even need
to know the whole system, but only a small random part of it. It thus
outperforms all previously known methods on general extremely  
overdetermined
systems. Even for moderately overdetermined systems, numerical  
simulations as
well as theoretical analysis reveal that our algorithm can converge  
faster than
the celebrated conjugate gradient algorithm. Furthermore, our theory and
numerical simulations confirm a prediction of Feichtinger et al. in  
the context
of reconstructing bandlimited functions from nonuniform sampling.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NA/0702226

---------------------------------------------------------------

5229. A SIMPLE PROOF OF KAIJSER'S UNIQUE ERGODICITY RESULT FOR HIDDEN  
MARKOV  $\ALPHA$-CHAINS

Fred Kochman and  Jim Reeds

According to a 1975 result of T. Kaijser, if some nonvanishing  
product of
hidden Markov model (HMM) stepping matrices is subrectangular, and the
underlying chain is aperiodic, the corresponding $\alpha$-chain has a  
unique
invariant limiting measure $\lambda$. Here the $\alpha$-chain
$\{\alpha_n\}=\{(\alpha_{ni})\}$ is given by \[\alpha_{ni}=P(X_n=i|
Y_n,Y_{n-1},...),\] where $\{(X_n,Y_n)\}$ is a finite state HMM with  
unobserved
Markov chain component $\{X_n\}$ and observed output component $\{Y_n 
\}$. This
defines $\{\alpha_n\}$ as a stochastic process taking values in the  
probability
simplex. It is not hard to see that $\{\alpha_n\}$ is itself a Markov  
chain.
The stepping matrices $M(y)=(M(y)_{ij})$ give the probability that
$(X_n,Y_n)=(j,y)$, conditional on $X_{n-1}=i$. A matrix is said to be
subrectangular if the locations of its nonzero entries forms a cartesian
product of a set of row indices and a set of column indices.  
Kaijser's result
is based on an application of the Furstenberg--Kesten theory to the  
random
matrix products $M(Y_1)M(Y_2)... M(Y_n)$. In this paper we prove a  
slightly
stronger form of Kaijser's theorem with a simpler argument,  
exploiting the
theory of e chains.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702248

---------------------------------------------------------------

5230. CONTINUOUS-TIME MEAN-VARIANCE EFFICIENCY: THE 80% RULE

Xun Li and  Xun Yu Zhou

This paper studies a continuous-time market where an agent, having  
specified
an investment horizon and a targeted terminal mean return, seeks to  
minimize
the variance of the return. The optimal portfolio of such a problem  
is called
mean-variance efficient \`{a} la Markowitz. It is shown that, when  
the market
coefficients are deterministic functions of time, a mean-variance  
efficient
portfolio realizes the (discounted) targeted return on or before the  
terminal
date with a probability greater than 0.8072. This number is universal
irrespective of the market parameters, the targeted return and the  
length of
the investment horizon.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702249

---------------------------------------------------------------

5231. PERIODICITY IN THE TRANSIENT REGIME OF EXHAUSTIVE POLLING SYSTEMS

I. M. MacPhee and  M. V. Menshikov and  S. Popov and  S. Volkov

We consider an exhaustive polling system with three nodes in its  
transient
regime under a switching rule of generalized greedy type. We show  
that, for the
system with Poisson arrivals and service times with finite second  
moment, the
sequence of nodes visited by the server is eventually periodic almost  
surely.
To do this, we construct a dynamical system, the triangle process,  
which we
show has eventually periodic trajectories for almost all sets of  
parameters and
in this case we show that the stochastic trajectories follow the  
deterministic
ones a.s. We also show there are infinitely many sets of parameters  
where the
triangle process has aperiodic trajectories and in such cases  
trajectories of
the stochastic model are aperiodic with positive probability.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702252

---------------------------------------------------------------

5232. SAMPLE PATH LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR MULTICLASS FEEDFORWARD  
QUEUEING  NETWORKS IN CRITICAL LOADING

Kurt Majewski

We consider multiclass feedforward queueing networks with first in  
first out
and priority service disciplines at the nodes, and class dependent
deterministic routing between nodes. The random behavior of the  
network is
constructed from cumulative arrival and service time processes which are
assumed to satisfy an appropriate sample path large deviation  
principle. We
establish logarithmic asymptotics of large deviations for waiting  
time, idle
time, queue length, departure and sojourn-time processes in critical  
loading.
This transfers similar results from Puhalskii about single class  
queueing
networks with feedback to multiclass feedforward queueing networks, and
complements diffusion approximation results from Peterson. An example  
with
renewal inter arrival and service time processes yields the rate  
function of a
reflected Brownian motion. The model directly captures stationary  
situations.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702256

---------------------------------------------------------------

5233. ON THE HAUSDORFF DIMENSION OF REGULAR POINTS OF INVISCID  
BURGERS  EQUATION WITH STABLE INITIAL DATA

Thomas Simon (DP)

Consider an inviscid Burgers equation whose initial data is a Levy a- 
stable
process Z with a > 1. We show that when Z has positive jumps, the  
Hausdorff
dimension of the set of Lagrangian regular points associated with the  
equation
is strictly smaller than 1/a, as soon as a is close to 1. This gives  
a negative
answer to a conjecture of Janicki and Woyczynski. Along the way, we  
contradict
a recent conjecture of Z. Shi about the lower tails of integrated stable
processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702260

---------------------------------------------------------------

5234. STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR PHYLOGENETIC TREES ON HIGHER-ORDER TAXA

David Aldous and  Maxim Krikun and  and Lea Popovic

Simple stochastic models for phylogenetic trees on species have been  
well
studied. But much paleontology data concerns time series or trees on
higher-order taxa, and any broad picture of relationships between  
extant groups
requires use of higher-order taxa. A coherent model for trees on  
(say) genera
should involve both a species-level model and a model for the  
classification
scheme by which species are assigned to genera. We present a general  
framework
for such models, and describe three alternate classification schemes.  
Combining
with the species-level model of Aldous-Popovic (2005), one gets  
models for
higher-order trees, and we initiate analytic study of such models. In
particular we derive formulas for the lifetime of genera, for the  
distribution
of number of species per genus, and for the offspring structure of  
the tree on
genera.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/q-bio.PE/0702014

---------------------------------------------------------------

5235. HOMOGENIZATION OF PERIODIC LINEAR DEGENERATE PDES

Martin Hairer and Etienne Pardoux

It is well-known under the name of `periodic homogenization' that,  
under a
centering condition of the drift, a periodic diffusion process on R^d
converges, under diffusive rescaling, to a d-dimensional Brownian  
motion.
Existing proofs of this result all rely on uniform ellipticity or
hypoellipticity assumptions on the diffusion. In this paper, we  
considerably
weaken these assumptions in order to allow for the diffusion  
coefficient to
even vanish on an open set.
   As a consequence, it is no longer the case that the effective  
diffusivity
matrix is necessarily non-degenerate. It turns out that, provided  
that some
very weak regularity conditions are met, the range of the effective  
diffusivity
matrix can be read off the shape of the support of the invariant  
measure for
the periodic diffusion. In particular, this gives some easily verifiable
conditions for the effective diffusivity matrix to be of full rank.  
We also
discuss the application of our results to the homogenization of a  
class of
elliptic and parabolic PDEs.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702304

---------------------------------------------------------------

5236. A QUENCHED INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE FOR CERTAIN BALLISTIC RANDOM  
WALKS IN  I.I.D. ENVIRONMENTS

Noam Berger and  Ofer Zeitouni

We prove that every random walk in i.i.d. environment in dimension  
greater
than or equal to 4 that has an almost sure positive speed in a certain
direction, an annealed invariance principle and some mild integrability
condition for regeneration times also satisfies a quenched invariance
principle. The argument is based on intersection estimates and a  
theorem of
Bolthausen and Sznitman.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702306

---------------------------------------------------------------

5237. EXISTENCE AND SMOOTHNESS OF THE DENSITY FOR SPATIALLY  
HOMOGENEOUS SPDES

David Nualart (University of Kansas) and  Lluis Quer-Sardanyons   
(Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

In this paper, we extend Walsh's stochastic integral with respect to a
Gaussian noise, white in time and with some homogeneous spatial  
correlation, in
order to be able to integrate some random measure-valued processes. This
extension turns out to be equivalent to Dalang's one. Then we study  
existence
and regularity of the density of the probability law for the real- 
valued mild
solution to a general second order stochastic partial differential  
equation
driven by such a noise. For this, we apply the techniques of the  
Malliavin
calculus. Our results apply to the case of the stochastic heat  
equation in any
space dimension and the stochastic wave equation in space dimension  
$d=1,2,3$.
Moreover, for these particular examples, known results in the  
literature have
been improved.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702312

---------------------------------------------------------------

5238. MEASURES WITH ZEROS IN THE INVERSE OF THEIR MOMENT MATRIX

J. William Helton and  Jean B. Lasserre and  Mihai Putinar

We investigate and discuss when the inverse of a multivariate truncated
moment matrix of a measure $\mu$ has zeros in some prescribed  
entries. We
describe precisely which pattern of these zeroes corresponds to  
independence,
namely, the measure having a product structure. A more refined  
finding is that
the key factor forcing a zero entry in this inverse matrix is a certain
conditional triangularity property of the orthogonal polynomials  
associated
with the measure $\mu$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702314

---------------------------------------------------------------

5239. CONVERGENCE OF WEIGHTED POWER VARIATIONS OF FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN  
MOTION

Mihai Gradinaru (IECN) and  Ivan Nourdin (PMA)

The first part of the paper contains the study of the convergence for  
some
weighted power variations of a fractional Brownian motion B with  
Hurst index H
in (0,1). The behaviour is different when H<1/2 and powers are odd,  
compared
with the case when H=1/2 or when H>1/2 and powers are even. In the  
second part,
one applies the results of the first part to compute the exact rate of
convergence of some approximating schemes associated to scalar  
stochastic
differential equations driven by B. The limit of the error between  
the exact
solution and the considered scheme (whose size depends on the Hurst  
index H) is
computed explicitly.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702317

---------------------------------------------------------------

5240. NEIGHBOR SELECTION AND HITTING PROBABILITY IN SMALL-WORLD GRAPHS

Oskar Sandberg

Small-world graphs, which combine randomized and structured elements,  
are
seen as prevalent in nature. Jon Kleinberg showed that in some graphs  
of this
type it is possible to route, or navigate, between vertices in few  
steps even
with very little knowledge of the graph itself.
   We discuss a different criterion for graphs being navigable in  
this sense,
relating the neighbor selection of a vertex with the hitting  
probability of
routed walks. In several models starting from both discrete and  
continuous
settings, this can be showed to lead to graphs with the desired  
properties. It
also leads directly to a evolutionary model for the creation of  
similar graphs
by the stepwise rewiring of the edges, and we conjecture, supported by
simulations, that these too are navigable.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702325

---------------------------------------------------------------

5241. CONTINUITY IN LAW WITH RESPECT TO THE HURST PARAMETER OF THE  
LOCAL TIME  OF THE FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION

Maria Jolis and  No\`elia Viles

We give a result of stability in law of the local time of the fractional
Brownian motion with respect to small perturbations of the Hurst  
parameter.
Concretely, we prove that the law (in the space of continuous  
functions) of the
local time of the fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H$  
converges
weakly to that of the local time of $B^{H_0}$, when $H$ tends to $H_0$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702330

---------------------------------------------------------------

5242. TIGHTNESS CONDITIONS FOR POLYMER MEASURES

Francesco Caravenna and  Giambattista Giacomin and  Lorenzo Zambotti

We give sufficient conditions for tightness in the space C([0,1]) for
sequences of probability measures which enjoy a suitable decoupling  
between
zero level set and excursions. Applications of our results are given  
in the
context of (homogeneous, periodic and disordered) random walk models for
polymers and interfaces.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702331

---------------------------------------------------------------

5243. A NOTE ON EQUILIBRIUM GLAUBER AND KAWASAKI DYNAMICS FOR FERMION  
POINT  PROCESSES

E. Lytvynov and  N. Ohlerich

We construct two types of equilibrium dynamics of infinite particle  
systems
in a locally compact Polish space $X$, for which certain fermion point
processes are invariant. The Glauber dynamics is a birth-and-death  
process in
$X$, while in the case of the Kawasaki dynamics interacting particles  
randomly
hop over $X$. We establish conditions on generators of both dynamics  
under
which corresponding conservative Markov processes exist.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702338

---------------------------------------------------------------

5244. MULTIPLICATIVE FREE CONVOLUTION AND INFORMATION-PLUS-NOISE TYPE  
MATRICES

{\O}yvind Ryan and  M\'erouane Debbah

Free probability and random matrix theory has shown to be a fruitful
combination in many fields of research, such as digital  
communications, nuclear
physics and mathematical finance. The link between free probability and
eigenvalue distributions of random matrices will be strengthened  
further in
this paper. It will be shown how the concept of multiplicative free  
convolution
can be used to express known results for eigenvalue distributions of  
a type of
random matrices called Information-Plus-Noise matrices. The result is  
proved in
a free probability framework, and some new results, useful for  
problems related
to free probability, are presented in this context. The connection  
between free
probability and estimators for covariance matrices is also made  
through the
notion of free deconvolution.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702342

---------------------------------------------------------------

5245. LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS AND CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM UNDER NONLINEAR   
EXPECTATIONS

Shige Peng

The law of large numbers (LLN) and central limit theorem (CLT) are  
long and
widely been known as two fundamental results in probability theory.
   Recently problems of model uncertainties in statistics, measures  
of risk and
superhedging in finance motivated us to introduce, in [4] and [5]  
(see also
[2], [3] and references herein), a new notion of sublinear  
expectation, called
\textquotedblleft% $G$-expectation\textquotedblright, and the related
\textquotedblleft$G$-normal distribution\textquotedblright from which  
we were
able to define G-Brownian motion as well as the corresponding stochastic
calculus. The notion of G-normal distribution plays the same  
important rule in
the theory of sublinear expectation as that of normal distribution in  
the
classic probability theory. It is then natural and interesting to ask  
if we
have the corresponding LLN and CLT under a sublinear expectation and, in
particular, if the corresponding limit distribution of the CLT is a G- 
normal
distribution. This paper gives an affirmative answer. The proof of  
our CLT is
short since we borrow a deep interior estimate of fully nonlinear PDE  
in [6]
which extended a profound result of [1] (see also [7]) to parabolic  
PDEs. The
assumptions of our LLN and CLT can be still improved. But the discovered
phenomenon plays the same important rule in the theory of nonlinear  
expectation
as that of the classical LLN and CLT in classic probability theory.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702358

---------------------------------------------------------------

5246. SMOOTHNESS OF DENSITY FOR SOLUTIONS TO STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL  
EQUATIONS  WITH JUMPS

T.R.Cass

We consider a solution to a generic stochastic differential equation  
with
jumps and show that for each time the marginal law of the solution  
has an
infinitely differentiable density with respect to Lebesgue measure  
under a
uniform version of Hoermanders conditions. Our results are proved  
subject to
some restrictions on the rate of growth of the jump measure near zero  
and are
accomplished using developments of traditional arguments in Malliavin  
calculus.
A key ingredient in our proof is a generalisation of Norris  
semimartingale
inequality to discontinuous semimartingales. Unlike previous work,  
our results
extend beyond the case finite activity jump processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702364

---------------------------------------------------------------

5247. A POPULATION MODEL FOR $\LAMBDA$-COALESCENTS WITH NEUTRAL  
MUTATIONS

Andreas Nordvall Lager{\aa}s

Bertoin and Le Gall (2003) introduced a certain probability measure  
valued
Markov process that describes the evolution of a population, such  
that a sample
from this population would exhibit a genealogy given by the so-called
$\Lambda$-coalescent, or coalescent with multiple collisions, introduced
independently by Pitman (1999) and Sagitov (1999). We show how this  
process can
be extended to the case where lineages can experience mutations.  
Regenerative
compositions enter naturally into this model, which is somewhat  
surprising,
considering a negative result by M{\"o}hle (2007).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702367

---------------------------------------------------------------

5248. INTEGRAL EQUATIONS IN THE THEORY OF LEVY PROCESSES

Lev Sakhnovich

In this article we consider the Levy processes and the corresponding
semigroup. We represent the generator of this semigroup in a  
convolution form.
Using the obtained convolution form and the theory of integral  
equations we
investigate the properties of a wide class of Levy processes (potential,
quasi-potential, the probability of the Levy process remaining within  
the given
domain, long time behavior, stable processes). We analyze in detail a  
number of
concrete examples of the Levy processes (stable processes, the  
variance damped
Levy processes, the variance gamma processes, the normal Gaussian  
process, the
Meixner process, the compound Poisson process).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702378

---------------------------------------------------------------

5249. ON THE CIRCULAR LAW

F. G\"otze and A. Tikhomirov

We consider the joint distribution of real and imaginary parts of  
eigenvalues
of random matrices with independent real entries with mean zero and unit
variance. We prove the convergence of this distribution to the uniform
distribution on the unit disc without assumptions on the existence of  
a density
for the distribution of entries. We assume however that the entries have
sub-Gaussian tails or are sparsely non-zero.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702386

---------------------------------------------------------------

5250. STATIONARY FLOWS AND UNIQUENESS OF INVARIANT MEASURES

Francois Baccelli and Takis Konstantopoulos

In this short paper, we consider a quadruple $(\Omega, \AA, \theta,
\mu)$,where $\AA$ is a $\sigma$-algebra of subsets of $\Omega$, and $ 
\theta$ is
a measurable bijection from $\Omega$ into itself that preserves the  
measure
$\mu$. For each $B \in \AA$, we consider the measure $\mu_B$ obtained  
by taking
cycles (excursions) of iterates of $\theta$ from $B$. We then derive  
a relation
for $\mu_B$ that involves the forward and backward hitting times of $B 
$ by the
trajectory $(\theta^n \omega, n \in \Z)$ at a point $\omega \in \Omega$.
Although classical in appearance, its use in obtaining uniqueness of  
invariant
measures of various stochastic models seems to be new. We apply the  
concept to
countable Markov chains and Harris processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702391

---------------------------------------------------------------

5251. MAJORITY BOOTSTRAP PERCOLATION ON THE HYPERCUBE

J\'ozsef Balogh and  B\'ela Bollob\'as and Robert Morris

In majority bootstrap percolation on a graph G, an infection spreads
according to the following deterministic rule: if at least half of the
neighbours of a vertex v are already infected, then v is also  
infected, and
infected vertices remain infected forever. Percolation occurs if  
eventually
every vertex is infected.
   The elements of the set of initially infected vertices, A \subset V 
(G), are
normally chosen independently at random, each with probability p,  
say. This
process has been extensively studied on the sequence of torus graphs  
[n]^d, for
n = 1,2,..., where d = d(n) is either fixed or a very slowly growing  
function
of n. For example, Cerf and Manzo showed that the critical  
probability is o(1)
if d(n) < log*(n), i.e., if p = p(n) is bounded away from zero then the
probability of percolation on [n]^d tends to one as n goes to infinity.
   In this paper we study the case when the growth of d to infinity  
is not
excessively slow; in particular, we show that the critical  
probability is 1/2 +
o(1) if d > (loglog(n))^2 logloglog(n), and give much stronger bounds  
in the
case that G is the hypercube, [2]^d.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CO/0702373

---------------------------------------------------------------

5252. BERGMAN KERNELS AND WEIGHTED EQUILIBRIUM MEASURES OF C^N

Robert Berman

We obtain various convergence results for the Bergman kernel of the  
Hilbert
space of all polynomials in \C^{n} of total degree at most k,  
equipped with a
weighted norm. The weight function is assumed to be a smooth function  
in \C^{n}
which grows faster than the logarithm of the squared distance  
function. The
convergence is studied in the large k limit and is expressed in terms  
of the
global equilibrium potential associated to the weight function, as  
well as in
terms of the Monge-Ampere measure of the weight function itself on a  
certain
bounded support set S. These results apply directly to the study of the
distribution of zeroes of random polynomials and of the eigenvalues  
of random
normal matrices.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.CV/0702357

---------------------------------------------------------------

5253. ON THE NUMBER OF MINIMA OF A RANDOM POLYNOMIAL

Jean-Pierre Dedieu and Gregorio Malajovich

We give an upper bound in O(d ^((n+1)/2)) for the number of critical  
points
of a normal random polynomial. The number of minima (resp. maxima) is in
O(d^((n+1)/2)) P_n, where P_n is the (unknown) measure of the set of  
symmetric
positive matrices in the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble GOE(n).  
Finally, we give
a closed form expression for the number of maxima (resp. minima) of a  
random
univariate polynomial, in terms of hypergeometric functions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.NA/0702360

---------------------------------------------------------------

5254. DIFFUSION APPROXIMATIONS FOR CONTROLLED STOCHASTIC NETWORKS:  
AN  ASYMPTOTIC BOUND FOR THE VALUE FUNCTION

Amarjit Budhiraja and  Arka Prasanna Ghosh

We consider the scheduling control problem for a family of unitary  
networks
under heavy traffic, with general interarrival and service times,  
probabilistic
routing and infinite horizon discounted linear holding cost. A natural
nonanticipativity condition for admissibility of control policies is
introduced. The condition is seen to hold for a broad class of  
problems. Using
this formulation of admissible controls and a time-transformation  
technique, we
establish that the infimum of the cost for the network control  
problem over all
admissible sequencing control policies is asymptotically bounded  
below by the
value function of an associated diffusion control problem (the  
Brownian control
problem). This result provides a useful bound on the best achievable
performance for any admissible control policy for a wide class of  
networks.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702402

---------------------------------------------------------------

5255. FUNCTIONAL INEQUALITIES AND UNIQUENESS OF THE GIBBS MEASURE --  
FROM  LOG-SOBOLEV TO POINCAR\'{E}

Pierre-Andr\'{e} Zitt (MODAL'X)

In a statistical mechanics model with unbounded spins, we prove  
uniqueness of
the Gibbs measure under various assumptions on finite volume functional
inequalities. We follow the approach of G. Royer (1999) and obtain  
uniqueness
by showing convergence properties of a Glauber-Langevin dynamics. The  
result
was known when the measures on the box $[-n,n]^d$ (with free boundary
conditions) satisfied the same logarithmic Sobolev inequality. We  
generalize
this in two directions: either the constants may be allowed to grow
sub-linearly in the diameter, or we may suppose a weaker inequality than
log-Sobolev, but stronger than Poincar\'{e}. We conclude by giving a  
heuristic
argument showing that this could be the right inequalities to look at.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702403

---------------------------------------------------------------

5256. BOUNDED SOLUTIONS TO BACKWARD SDE'S WITH JUMPS FOR UTILITY  
OPTIMIZATION  AND INDIFFERENCE HEDGING

Dirk Becherer

We prove results on bounded solutions to backward stochastic  
equations driven
by random measures. Those bounded BSDE solutions are then applied to  
solve
different stochastic optimization problems with exponential utility  
in models
where the underlying filtration is noncontinuous. This includes  
results on
portfolio optimization under an additional liability and on dynamic  
utility
indifference valuation and partial hedging in incomplete financial  
markets
which are exposed to risk from unpredictable events. In particular, we
characterize the limiting behavior of the utility indifference  
hedging strategy
and of the indifference value process for vanishing risk aversion.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702405

---------------------------------------------------------------

5257. THE CHOQUET-DENY THEOREM AND DISTAL PROPERTIES OF TOTALLY  
DISCONNECTED  LOCALLY COMPACT GROUPS OF POLYNOMIAL GROWTH

W. Jaworski and C. R. E. Raja

We obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for the Choquet-Deny  
theorem to
hold in the class of compactly generated totally disconnected locally  
compact
groups of polynomial growth, and in a larger class of totally  
disconnected
generalized $\ov{FC}$-groups. The following conditions turn out to be
equivalent when $G$ is a metrizable compactly generated totally  
disconnected
locally compact group of polynomial growth: (i) the Choquet-Deny  
theorem holds
for $G$; (ii) the group of inner automorphisms of $G$ acts distally  
on $G$;
(iii) every inner automorphism of $G$ is distal; (iv) the contraction  
subgroup
of every inner automorphism of $G$ is trivial; (v) $G$ is a SIN  
group. We also
show that for every probability measure $\mu$ on a totally disconnected
compactly generated locally compact second countable group of polynomial
growth, the Poisson boundary is a homogeneous space of $G$, and that  
it is a
compact homogeneous space when the support of $\mu$ generates $G$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702407

---------------------------------------------------------------

5258. MARKET FREE LUNCH AND LARGE FINANCIAL MARKETS

Irene Klein

The main result of the paper is a version of the fundamental theorem  
of asset
pricing (FTAP) for large financial markets based on an asymptotic  
concept of no
market free lunch for monotone concave preferences. The proof uses  
methods from
the theory of Orlicz spaces. Moreover, various notions of no asymptotic
arbitrage are characterized in terms of no asymptotic market free  
lunch; the
difference lies in the set of utilities. In particular, it is shown  
directly
that no asymptotic market free lunch with respect to monotone concave  
utilities
is equivalent to no asymptotic free lunch. In principle, the paper  
can be seen
as the large financial market analogue of [Math. Finance 14 (2004)  
351--357]
and [Math. Finance 16 (2006) 583--588].


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702409

---------------------------------------------------------------

5259. SEPARATION CUT-OFFS FOR BIRTH AND DEATH CHAINS

Persi Diaconis and  Laurent Saloff-Coste

This paper gives a necessary and sufficient condition for a sequence  
of birth
and death chains to converge abruptly to stationarity, that is, to  
present a
cut-off. The condition involves the notions of spectral gap and  
mixing time. Y.
Peres has observed that for many families of Markov chains, there is  
a cut-off
if and only if the product of spectral gap and mixing time tends to  
infinity.
We establish this for arbitrary birth and death chains in continuous  
time when
the convergence is measured in separation and the chains all start at 0.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702411

---------------------------------------------------------------

5260. HARRIS RECURRENCE OF METROPOLIS-WITHIN-GIBBS AND TRANS- 
DIMENSIONAL  MARKOV CHAINS

Gareth O. Roberts and  Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

A $\phi$-irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain with stationary  
probability
distribution will converge to its stationary distribution from almost  
all
starting points. The property of Harris recurrence allows us to replace
``almost all'' by ``all,'' which is potentially important when  
running Markov
chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Full-dimensional Metropolis--Hastings  
algorithms
are known to be Harris recurrent. In this paper, we consider  
conditions under
which Metropolis-within-Gibbs and trans-dimensional Markov chains are  
or are
not Harris recurrent. We present a simple but natural two-dimensional
counter-example showing how Harris recurrence can fail, and also a  
variety of
positive results which guarantee Harris recurrence. We also present  
some open
problems. We close with a discussion of the practical implications  
for MCMC
algorithms.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702412

---------------------------------------------------------------

5261. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF UTILITY-BASED PRICES AND RISK-TOLERANCE  
WEALTH  PROCESSES

Dmitry Kramkov and  Mihai S\^{{\i}}rbu

In the general framework of a semimartingale financial model and a  
utility
function $U$ defined on the positive real line, we compute the first- 
order
expansion of marginal utility-based prices with respect to a  
``small'' number
of random endowments. We show that this linear approximation has some  
important
qualitative properties if and only if there is a risk-tolerance  
wealth process.
In particular, they hold true in the following polar cases:
\begin{tabular}@p97mm@ for any utility function $U$, if and only if  
the set of
state price densities has a greatest element from the point of view of
second-order stochastic dominance;for any financial model, if and  
only if $U$
is a power utility function ($U$ is an exponential utility function  
if it is
defined on the whole real line). \end{tabular}


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702413

---------------------------------------------------------------

5262. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR THE ON-LINE NEAREST-NEIGHBOUR GRAPH

Andrew R. Wade

The on-line nearest-neighbour graph on a sequence of uniform random  
points in
$(0,1)^d$ ($d \in \N$) joins each point after the first to its nearest
neighbour amongst its predecessors. For the total power-weighted edge  
length of
this graph, with weight exponent $\alpha \in (0,d/2)$, we prove a  
central limit
theorem (in the large-sample limit), including an expression for the  
limiting
variance. In contrast, we give a convergence result (with no scaling)  
for
$\alpha > d/2$. Both these results extend previous work. We also make  
some
progress in the critical case $\alpha=d/2$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702414

---------------------------------------------------------------

5263. THE MEAN, VARIANCE AND LIMITING DISTRIBUTION OF TWO STATISTICS  
SENSITIVE  TO PHYLOGENETIC TREE BALANCE

Michael G. B. Blum and  Olivier Fran\c{c}ois and  Svante Janson

For two decades, the Colless index has been the most frequently used
statistic for assessing the balance of phylogenetic trees. In this  
article,
this statistic is studied under the Yule and uniform model of  
phylogenetic
trees. The main tool of analysis is a coupling argument with another  
well-known
index called the Sackin statistic. Asymptotics for the mean, variance  
and
covariance of these two statistics are obtained, as well as their  
limiting
joint distribution for large phylogenies. Under the Yule model, the  
limiting
distribution arises as a solution of a functional fixed point  
equation. Under
the uniform model, the limiting distribution is the Airy  
distribution. The
cornerstone of this study is the fact that the probabilistic models for
phylogenetic trees are strongly related to the random permutation and  
the
Catalan models for binary search trees.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702415

---------------------------------------------------------------

5264. EXISTENCE OF OPTIMAL CONTROLS FOR SINGULAR CONTROL PROBLEMS  
WITH STATE  CONSTRAINTS

Amarjit Budhiraja and  Kevin Ross

We establish the existence of an optimal control for a general class of
singular control problems with state constraints. The proof uses weak
convergence arguments and a time rescaling technique. The existence  
of optimal
controls for Brownian control problems \citehar, associated with a  
broad family
of stochastic networks, follows as a consequence.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702418

---------------------------------------------------------------

5265. STATIONARITY AND GEOMETRIC ERGODICITY OF A CLASS OF NONLINEAR  
ARCH  MODELS

Youssef Sa\"{{\i}}di and  Jean-Michel Zako\"{{\i}}an

A class of nonlinear ARCH processes is introduced and studied. The  
existence
of a strictly stationary and $\beta$-mixing solution is established  
under a
mild assumption on the density of the underlying independent process.  
We give
sufficient conditions for the existence of moments. The analysis  
relies on
Markov chain theory. The model generalizes some important features of  
standard
ARCH models and is amenable to further analysis.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702419

---------------------------------------------------------------

5266. CORRECTIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENT FOR ``LOCAL LIMIT THEORY AND  
LARGE  DEVIATIONS FOR SUPERCRITICAL BRANCHING PROCESSES''

P. E. Ney and  Anand N. Vidyashankar

Corrections and acknowledgment for ``Local limit theory and large  
deviations
for supercritical branching processes'' [math.PR/0407059]


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702421

---------------------------------------------------------------

5267. CORRECTION. ERROR ESTIMATES FOR BINOMIAL APPROXIMATIONS OF GAME  
OPTIONS

Yuri Kifer

Correction for Error estimates for binomial approximations of game  
options
[math.PR/0607123]


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702423

---------------------------------------------------------------

5268. NETWORK-BASED ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC SIR EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH  
RANDOM AND  PROPORTIONATE MIXING

Eben Kenah and  James Robins

In this paper, we outline the theory of percolation networks and  
their use in
the analysis of stochastic epidemic models on undirected contact  
networks. We
then show how the same theory can be used to analyze epidemic models  
with
random mixing. In the percolation network for a random-mixing model,  
undirected
edges disappear in the limit of a large population, so the  
percolation network
is purely directed. In a series of simulations, we show that percolation
networks accurately predict the mean outbreak size and probability  
and final
size of an epidemic for a variety of epidemic models in homogeneous and
heterogeneous populations. Finally, we show conditions under which  
percolation
network models are equivalent to branching processes and use percolation
networks to re-derive several classical results from different areas of
infectious disease epidemiology. In an appendix, we show how percolation
networks can be defined for any time-homogeneous stochastic epidemic  
model. We
conclude that the theory of percolation on semi-directed networks  
provides a
very general framework for the analysis of stochastic SIR epidemic  
models in
closed populations, which are an important part of theoretical  
infectious
disease epidemiology.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/q-bio.QM/0702027

---------------------------------------------------------------

5269. LIMITING SHAPES FOR DETERMINISTIC INTERNAL GROWTH MODELS

Anne Fey and Frank Redig

We study the rotor router model and two deterministic sandpile  
models. For
the rotor router model in $\mathbb{Z}^d$, Levine and Peres proved  
that the
limiting shape of the growth cluster is a sphere. For the other two  
models,
only bounds in dimension 2 are known. A unified approach for these  
models with
a new parameter $h$ (the initial number of particles at each site),  
allows to
prove a number of new limiting shape results in any dimension $d \geq  
1$.
   For the rotor router model, the limiting shape is a sphere for all  
values of
$h$. For one of the sandpile models, and $h=2d-2$ (the maximal  
value), the
limiting shape is a cube. For both sandpile models, the limiting  
shape is a
sphere in the limit $h \to -\infty$. Finally, we prove that the rotor  
router
shape contains a diamond, which is a new result even in the case  
studied by
Levine and Peres.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702450

---------------------------------------------------------------

5270. CONVEXITY THEORY FOR THE TERM STRUCTURE EQUATION

Erik Ekstrom and Johan Tysk

We study convexity and monotonicity properties for prices of bonds  
and bond
options when the short rate is modeled by a diffusion process. We  
provide
conditions under which convexity of the price in the short rate is  
guaranteed.
Under these conditions the price is decreasing in the drift and  
increasing in
the volatility of the short rate. We also study convexity properties  
of the
logarithm of the price.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0702435

---------------------------------------------------------------

5271. SOME APPLICATIONS AND METHODS OF LARGE DEVIATIONS IN FINANCE  
AND  INSURANCE

Huyen Pham (PMA)

In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large  
deviations
to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem  
related to
the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with
investment in stock market. We then describe how large deviation  
approximation
and importance sampling are used in rare event simulation for option  
pricing.
We finally focus on large deviations methods in risk management for the
estimation of large portfolio losses in credit risk and portfolio  
performance
in market investment.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702473

---------------------------------------------------------------

5272. A NOTE ON PERCOLATION ON \Z^D: ISOPERIMETRIC PROFILE VIA  
EXPONENTIAL  CLUSTER REPULSION

Gabor Pete

We show that for all p>p_c(\Z^d) percolation parameters, the  
probability that
the cluster of the origin is finite but has at least t vertices at  
distance one
from the infinite cluster is exponentially small in t. Then we use  
this to give
a very short proof of the important fact that the isoperimetric  
profile of the
infinite cluster basically coincides with the profile of the original  
lattice.
This implies for instance that simple random walk on the largest  
cluster of a
finite box [-n,n]^d with high probability has L^\infty-mixing time  
\Theta(n^2),
and that the heat kernel (return probability) on the infinite cluster  
a.s.
decays like p_n(o,o)=O(n^{-d/2}). Versions of these results have been  
proven by
Benjamini and Mossel (2003), Mathieu and Remy (2004), Barlow (2004)  
and Rau
(2006). We also give a short proof of a theorem of Angel, Benjamini,  
Berger and
Peres (2006): the infinite percolation cluster of a wedge in \Z^3 is  
a.s.
transient whenever the wedge itself is transient.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702474

---------------------------------------------------------------

5273. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR A CLASS OF RELATIVISTIC DIFFUSIONS

J\"{u}rgen Angst (IRMA) and  Jacques Franchi (IRMA)

Two similar Minkowskian diffusions have been considered, on one hand by
Barbachoux, Debbasch, Malik and Rivet ([BDR1], [BDR2], [BDR3], [DMR],  
[DR]),
and on the other hand by Dunkel and H\"{a}nggi ([DH1], [DH2]). We  
address here
the question, asked in ([DH1], [DH2]), of the asymptotic behaviour of  
the
variance of such diffusions. More generally, we establish a central  
limit
theorem for a class of Minkowskian diffusions, to which the two above  
ones
belong. As a consequence, we correct a partially wrong guess in [DH1].


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702481

---------------------------------------------------------------

5274. SCALING LIMITS FOR GRADIENT SYSTEMS IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

P. Goncalves and  M.D. Jara

For interacting particle systems that satisfies the gradient  
condition, the
hydrodynamic limit and the equilibrium fluctuations are well known.  
We prove
that under the presence of a symmetric random environment, these  
scaling limits
also hold for almost every choice of the environment, with homogenized
coefficients that does not depend on the particular realization of  
the random
environment.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702513

---------------------------------------------------------------

5275. FIRST HITTING TIME AND PLACE, MONOPOLES AND MULTIPOLES FOR   
PSEUDO-PROCESSES DRIVEN BY THE EQUATION $\PARTIAL/\PARTIAL T =
   \PM\PARTIAL^N/\PARTIAL X^N$

Aim\'e Lachal

Consider the high-order heat-type equation $\partial u/\partial
t=\pm\partial^N u/\partial x^N$ for an integer $N>2$ and introduce  
the related
Markov pseudo-process $(X(t))_{t\ge 0}$. In this paper, we study several
functionals related to $(X(t))_{t\ge 0}$: the maximum $M(t)$ and  
minimum $m(t)$
up to time $t$; the hitting times $\tau_a^+$ and $\tau_a^-$ of the  
half lines
$(a,+\infty)$ and $(-\infty,a)$ respectively. We provide explicit  
expressions
for the distributions of the vectors $(X(t),M(t))$ and $(X(t),m(t))$,  
as well
as those of the vectors $(\tau_a^+,X(\tau_a^+))$ and $(\tau_a^-,X 
(\tau_a^-))$.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702541

---------------------------------------------------------------

5276. DYNAMICS FOR THE BROWNIAN WEB AND THE EROSION FLOW

Chris Howitt and Jon Warren

The Brownian web is a random object that occurs as the scaling limit  
of an
infinite system of coalescing random walks. Perturbing this system of  
random
walks by, independently at each point in space-time, resampling the  
random walk
increments, leads to some natural dynamics. In this paper we consider  
the
corresponding dynamics for the Brownian web. In particular, pairs of  
coupled
Brownian webs are studied, where the second web is obtained from the  
first by
perturbing according to these dynamics. A stochastic flow of kernels,  
which we
call the erosion flow, is obtained via a filtering construction from  
such
coupled Brownian webs, and the N-point motions of this flow of  
kernels are
identified.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702542

---------------------------------------------------------------

5277. EXTREME POINTS OF THE CONVEX SET OF JOINT PROBABILITY  
DISTRIBUTIONS WITH  FIXED MARGINALS

K. R. Parthasarathy

By using a quantum probabilistic approach we obtain a description of the
extreme points of the convex set of all joint probability  
distributions on the
product of two standard Borel spaces with fixed marginal distributions.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702544

---------------------------------------------------------------

5278. QQ PLOTS, RANDOM SETS AND DATA FROM A HEAVY TAILED DISTRIBUTION

Bikramjit Das and  Sidney I. Resnick

The QQ plot is a commonly used technique for informally deciding  
whether a
univariate random sample of size n comes from a specified  
distribution F. The
QQ plot graphs the sample quantiles against the theoretical quantiles  
of F and
then a visual check is made to see whether or not the points are  
close to a
straight line. For a location and scale family of distributions, the  
intercept
and slope of the straight line provide estimates for the shift and scale
parameters of the distribution respectively. Here we consider the set  
S_n of
points forming the QQ plot as a random closed set in R^2. We show  
that under
certain regularity conditions on the distribution F, S_n converges in
probability to a closed, non-random set. In the heavy tailed case  
where 1-F is
a regularly varying function, a similar result can be shown but a  
modification
is necessary to provide a statistically sensible result since  
typically F is
not completely known.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702551

---------------------------------------------------------------

5279. VARIANCE ASYMPTOTICS AND CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS FOR GENERALIZED  
GROWTH  PROCESSES WITH APPLICATIONS TO CONVEX HULLS AND MAXIMAL POINTS

Tomasz Schreiber and Joseph E. Yukich

We show that the random point measures induced by vertices in the  
convex hull
of a Poisson sample on the unit ball, when properly scaled and centered,
converge to those of a mean zero Gaussian field. We establish  
limiting variance
and covariance asymptotics in terms of the density of the Poisson  
sample.
Similar results hold for the point measures induced by the maximal  
points in a
Poisson sample. The approach involves introducing a generalized  
spatial birth
growth process allowing for cell overlap.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702553

---------------------------------------------------------------

5280. AN IMPROVED METHOD FOR MODEL SELECTION BASED ON INFORMATION  
CRITERIA

Guilhem Coq (1) and  Olivier Alata (2) and  Marc Arnaudon (1) and   
Christian  Olivier (2) ((1) Laboratoire de Math\'ematiques et  
Applications Poitiers
   France, (2) Laboratoire Signal Image et Communications Poitiers  
France)

Information criteria are an appropriate and widely used tool for solving
model selection problems. However, different ways to use them exist,  
each
leading to a more or less precise approximation of the sought model.  
In this
paper, we mainly present two methods of utilisation of information  
criteria :
the classical one which is generally used and an alternative one,  
more precise
but requiring a little more calculations. Those methods are compared  
on 1-D and
2-D autoregressive models ; we use a synthetized process for the 1-D  
case and
texture images for the 2-D case. We also work with the original phi_beta
criterion which includes all others usual criteria such as AIC, BIC,  
and phi.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0702540

---------------------------------------------------------------

5281. A STOCHASTIC LAGRANGIAN PROOF OF GLOBAL EXISTENCE OF THE NAVIER- 
STOKES  EQUATIONS FOR FLOWS WITH SMALL REYNOLDS NUMBER

Gautam Iyer

We consider the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with spatially
periodic boundary conditions. If the Reynolds number is small enough  
we provide
an elementary short proof of the existence of global in time H\"older
continuous solutions. Our proof is based on the stochastic Lagrangian
formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations, and works in both the two  
and three
dimensional situation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.AP/0702506

---------------------------------------------------------------

5282. LARGE DEVIATION ESTIMATES OF THE CROSSING PROBABILITY FOR  
PINNED  GAUSSIAN PROCESSES

L. Caramellino and  B. Pacchiarotti

The paper deals with the asymptotic behavior of the bridge of a Gaussian
process conditioned to stay in $n$ fixed points at $n$ fixed past  
instants. In
particular, functional large deviation results are stated for small  
time.
Several examples are considered: integrated or not fractional  
Brownian motion,
$m$-fold integrated Brownian motion. As an application, the  
asymptotic behavior
of the exit probability is studied and used for the practical purpose  
of the
numerical computation, via Monte Carlo methods, of the hitting  
probability up
to a given time.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702573

---------------------------------------------------------------

5283. WELL-POSEDNESS AND INVARIANT MEASURES FOR HJM MODELS WITH  
DETERMINISTIC  VOLATILITY AND LEVY NOISE

Carlo Marinelli

We give sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness and  
ergodicity of
invariant measures for Musiela's stochastic partial differential  
equation with
deterministic volatility and a Hilbert space valued driving Levy noise.
Conditions for the absence of arbitrage and for the existence of mild  
solutions
are also discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702622

---------------------------------------------------------------

5284. THE RIFF-SHUFFLE DISTRIBUTION IS UNIMODAL

S. Gerhold

We show that the probability mass function of the riff-shuffle  
distribution,
also known as the minimum negative binomial distribution, is  
unimodal, but in
general not log-concave.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702639

---------------------------------------------------------------

5285. BILATERAL CANONICAL CASCADES: MULTIPLICATIVE REFINEMENT PATHS  
TO  WIENER'S AND VARIANT FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN LIMITS

Julien Barral and Benoit Mandelbrot

The original density is 1 for $t\in (0,1)$, $b$ is an integer base ($b 
\geq
2$%), and $p\in (0,1)$ is a parameter. The first construction stage  
divides the
unit interval into $b$ subintervals and multiplies the density in each
subinterval by either 1 or -1 with the respective frequencies of $ 
\frac{1%
}{2}+\frac{p}{2}$ and ${1/2}-\frac{p}{2}$. It is shown that the  
resulting
density can be renormalized so that, as $n\to \infty $ ($n$ being the  
number of
iterations) the signed measure converges in some sense to a non- 
degenerate
limit. If $H=1+\log_{b}$ $p>{1}/{2}$, hence $p>b^{{-1}/{% 2}}$,  
renormalization
creates a martingale, the convergence is strong, and the limit shares  
the
H\"{o}lder and Hausdorff properties of the fractional Brownian motion of
exponent $H$. If $H\leq {1}/{2}$, hence $p\leq b^{{-1}/{2}%}$, this  
martingale
does not converge. However, a different normalization can be applied,  
for
$H\leq {1/2}$ to the martingale itself and for $H>% {1/2}$ to the  
discrepancy
between the limit and a finite approximation. In all cases the resulting
process is found to converge weakly to the Wiener Brownian motion,
independently of $H$ and of $b$. Thus, to the usual additive paths  
toward
Wiener measure, this procedure adds an infinity of multiplicative paths.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702644

---------------------------------------------------------------

5286. A SURVEY OF CONFORMALLY INVARIANT MEASURES ON H^M(\DELTA)

Doug Pickrell

The universal covering of the group PSU(1,1) acts naturally on H^m 
(\delta),
the space of holomorphic differentials of order m on the Poincare  
disk. The
purpose of this paper is to survey, as broadly as I am able, the  
basic sources
and examples of invariant measures for this action.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702672

---------------------------------------------------------------

5287. AR AND MA REPRESENTATION OF PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTIONS,  
WITH  APPLICATIONS

Akihiko Inoue

We prove a representation of the partial autocorrelation function  
(PACF), or
the Verblunsky coefficients, of a stationary process in terms of the  
AR and MA
coefficients. We apply it to show the asymptotic behaviour of the  
PACF. We also
propose a new definition of short and long memory in terms of the PACF.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.SP/0702648

---------------------------------------------------------------

5288. CLASSICAL DILATIONS \`A LA QUANTUM PROBABILITY OF MARKOV  
EVOLUTIONS IN  DISCRETE TIME

M. Gregoratti

We study the Classical Probability analogue of the dilations of a  
quantum
dynamical semigroup in Quantum Probability. Given a (not necessarily
homogeneous) Markov chain in discrete time in a finite state space E, we
introduce a second system, an environment, and a deterministic  
invertible
time-homogeneous global evolution of the system E with this  
environment such
that the original Markov evolution of E can be realized by a proper  
choice of
the initial random state of the environment. We also compare this  
dilations
with the dilations of a quantum dynamical semigroup in Quantum  
Probability:
given a classical Markov semigroup, we show that it can be extended to a
quantum dynamical semigroup for which we can find a quantum dilation  
to a group
of *-automorphisms admitting an invariant abelian subalgebra where  
this quantum
dilation gives just our classical dilation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702690

---------------------------------------------------------------

5289. SOME EXTENSIONS OF FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION AND SUB- 
FRACTIONAL  BROWNIAN MOTION RELATED TO PARTICLE SYSTEMS

Tomasz Bojdecki and  Luis G. Gorostiza and  Anna Talarczyk

In this paper we study three self-similar, long-range dependence,  
Gaussian
processes. The first one, with covariance
   \int_0^{s\wedge t} u^a [(t-u)^b+(s-u)^b]du, parameters a>-1, -1<b 
\leq 1,
|b|\leq 1+a, corresponds to fractional Brownian motion for a=0,  
-1<b<1. The
second one, with covariance (2-h)(s^h+t^h-[(s+t)^h +|s-t|^h]/2),  
parameter
0<h\leq 4, corresponds to sub-fractional Brownian motion for 0<h<2.  
The third
one, with covariance -(s^2\log s + t^2\log t -[(s+t)^2 \log (s+t) +(s- 
t)^2 \log
|s-t|]/2), is related to the second one. These processes come from  
occupation
time fluctuations of certain particle systems for some values of the
parameters.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702708

---------------------------------------------------------------

5290. HITTING PROBABILITIES FOR SYSTEMS OF NON-LINEAR STOCHASTIC  
HEAT  EQUATIONS WITH ADDITIVE NOISE

Robert C. Dalang and  Davar Khoshnevisan and  and Eulalia Nualart

We consider a system of $d$ coupled non-linear stochastic heat  
equations in
spatial dimension 1 driven by $d$-dimensional additive space-time  
white noise.
We establish upper and lower bounds on hitting probabilities of the  
solution
$\{u(t, x)\}_{t \in \mathbb{R}_+, x \in [0, 1]}$, in terms of  
respectively
Hausdorff measure and Newtonian capacity. We also obtain the Hausdorff
dimensions of level sets and their projections. A result of independent
interest is an anisotropic form of the Kolmogorov continuity theorem.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702710

---------------------------------------------------------------

5291. UNIFORM IN BANDWIDTH CONSISTENCY OF CONDITIONAL U-STATISTICS

J. Dony and  D. M. Mason

In 1991 Stute introduced a class of estimators called conditional
U-statistics. They can be seen as a generalization of the Nadaraya- 
Watson
estimator, and their strong pointwise consistency to the general  
regression
function has been obtained in the same paper by Stute. Very recently,  
Gine and
Mason introduced the notion of a local U-process, which generalizes  
that of a
local empirical process, and obtained central limit theorems and laws  
of the
iterated logarithm for this class. We apply the methods developed by  
Einmahl
and Mason (2005) and Gine and Mason (2007a,b) to establish uniform in  
bandwidth
consistency to the general regression function of the estimator  
proposed by
Stute.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.ST/0702696

---------------------------------------------------------------

5292. ON THE VOLUME OF NODAL SETS FOR EIGENFUNCTIONS OF THE LAPLACIAN  
ON THE  TORUS

Zeev Rudnick and  Igor Wigman

We study the volume of nodal sets for eigenfunctions of the Laplacian  
on the
standard torus in two or more dimensions. We consider a sequence of  
eigenvalues
$4\pi^2\eigenvalue$ with growing multiplicity $\Ndim\to\infty$, and  
compute the
expectation and variance of the volume of the nodal set with respect  
to a
Gaussian probability measure on the eigenspaces. We show that the  
expected
volume of the nodal set is $const \sqrt{\eigenvalue}$. Our main  
result is that
the variance of the volume normalized by $\sqrt{\eigenvalue}$ is  
bounded by
$O(1/\sqrt{\Ndim})$, so that the normalized volume has vanishing  
fluctuations
as we increase the dimension of the eigenspace.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math-ph/0702081

---------------------------------------------------------------

5293. A PORTFOLIO DECOMPOSITION FORMULA

Traian A Pirvu and Ulrich G Haussmann

This paper derives a portfolio decomposition formula when the agent  
maximizes
utility of her wealth at some finite planning horizon. The financial  
market is
complete and consists of multiple risky assets (stocks) plus a risk  
free asset.
The stocks are modelled as exponential Brownian motions with drift and
volatility being Ito processes. The optimal portfolio has two  
components: a
myopic component and a hedging one. We show that the myopic component  
is robust
with respect to stopping times. We employ the Clark-Haussmann formula  
to derive
portfolio s hedging component.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702726

---------------------------------------------------------------

5294. ON ROBUST UTILITY MAXIMIZATION

Traian A Pirvu and Ulrich G Haussmann

This paper studies the problem of optimal investment in incomplete  
markets,
robust with respect to stopping times. We work on a Brownian motion  
framework
and the stopping times are adapted to the Brownian filtration.  
Robustness can
only be achieved for logartihmic utility, otherwise a cashflow should  
be added
to the investor s wealth. The cashflow can be decomposed into the sum  
of an
increasing and a decreasing process. The last one can be viewed as  
consumption.
The first one is an insurance premium the agent has to pay.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702727

---------------------------------------------------------------

5295. MATRIX NORMS AND RAPID MIXING FOR SPIN SYSTEMS

Martin Dyer and  Leslie Ann Goldberg and Mark Jerrum

We give a systematic development of the application of matrix norms  
to rapid
mixing in spin systems. We show that rapid mixing of both random  
update Glauber
dynamics and systematic scan Glauber dynamics occurs if any matrix  
norm of the
associated dependency matrix is less than 1. We give improved  
analysis for the
case in which the diagonal of the dependency matrix is 0 (as in heat  
bath
dynamics). We apply the matrix norm methods to random update and  
systematic
scan Glauber dynamics for colouring various classes of graphs. We give a
general method for estimating a norm of a symmetric non-regular  
matrix. This
leads to improved mixing times for any class of graphs which is  
hereditary and
sufficiently sparse including several classes of degree-bounded  
graphs such as
non-regular graphs, trees, planar graphs and graphs with given tree- 
width and
genus.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702744

---------------------------------------------------------------

5296. ASYMPTOTICS OF THE MINIMUM MANIPULATING COALITION SIZE FOR  
POSITIONAL  VOTING RULES UNDER IC BEHAVIOUR

Geoffrey Pritchard and Mark C. Wilson

We consider the problem of manipulation of elections using positional  
voting
rules under Impartial Culture voter behaviour. We consider both the  
logical
possibility of coalitional manipulation, and the number of voters  
that must be
recruited to form a manipulating coalition. It is shown that the  
manipulation
problem may be well approximated by a very simple linear program in two
variables. This permits a comparative analysis of the asymptotic
(large-population) manipulability of the various rules. It is seen  
that the
manipulation resistance of positional rules with 5 or 6 (or more)  
candidates is
quite different from the more commonly analyzed 3- and 4-candidate  
cases.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702752

---------------------------------------------------------------

5297. CLASSICAL DILATIONS \`A LA HUDSON-PARTHASARATHY OF MARKOV  
SEMIGROUPS

M. Gregoratti

We study the Classical Probability analogue of the dilations of a  
quantum
dynamical semigroup defined in Quantum Probability via quantum  
stochastic
differential equations. Given a homogeneous Markov chain in  
continuous time in
a finite state space E, we introduce a second system, an environment,  
and a
deterministic invertible time-homogeneous global evolution of the  
system E with
this environment such that the original Markov evolution of E can be  
realized
by a proper choice of the initial random state of the environment. We  
also
compare this dilations with the dilations of a quantum dynamical  
semigroup in
Quantum Probability: given a classical Markov semigroup, we extend it  
to a
proper quantum dynamical semigroup for which we can find a Hudson- 
Parthasarathy
dilation which is itself an extension of our classical dilation.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702784

---------------------------------------------------------------

5298. FURTHER RESULTS ON SOME SINGULAR LINEAR STOCHASTIC  
DIFFERENTIAL  EQUATIONS

Larbi Alili and  Ching-Tang Wu

A class of Volterra transforms, preserving the Wiener measure, with  
kernels
of Goursat type is considered. We provide some results on the  
inverses of the
associated Gramian matrices. These are applied to the study of a  
class of
linear singular stochastic differential equations together with the
corresponding decompositions of filtrations. The studied equations  
are viewed
as non-canonical decompositions of some generalized bridges.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702785

---------------------------------------------------------------

5299. STOCHASTIC HAMILTONIAN DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

Joan-Andreu L\'azaro-Cam\'{\i} and Juan-Pablo Ortega

We use the global stochastic analysis tools introduced by P. A. Meyer  
and L.
Schwartz to write down a stochastic generalization of the Hamilton  
equations on
a Poisson manifold that, for exact symplectic manifolds, satisfy a  
natural
critical action principle similar to the one encountered in classical
mechanics. Several features and examples in relation with the solution
semimartingales of these equations are presented.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702787

---------------------------------------------------------------

5300. MINIMAL POSITION AND CRITICAL MARTINGALE CONVERGENCE IN  
BRANCHING RANDOM  WALKS, AND DIRECTED POLYMERS ON DISORDERED TREES

Yueyun Hu (LAGA) and  Zhan Shi (PMA)

We establish a second-order almost sure limit theorem for the minimal
position in a one-dimensional super-critical branching random walk,  
and also
prove a martingale convergence theorem which answers a question of  
Biggins and
Kyprianou (2005). Our method applies furthermore to the study of  
directed
polymers on a disordered tree; in particular, we give a rigorous  
proof of a
phase transition phenomenon for the partition function, described by  
Derrida
and Spohn (1988).


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702799

---------------------------------------------------------------

5301. ORBITAL APPROACH TO MICROSTATE FREE ENTROPY

Fumio Hiai and  Takuho Miyamoto and Yoshimichi Ueda

Motivated by Voiculescu's liberation theory, we introduce the orbital  
free
entropy $\chi_orb$ for non-commutative self-adjoint random variables  
(also for
"hyperfinite random multivariables"). Besides its basic properties  
the relation
of $\chi_orb$ with the usual free entropy $\chi$ is shown. Moreover, the
dimension counterpart of $\chi_orb$ is discussed.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.OA/0702745

---------------------------------------------------------------

5302. POISSON PROCESS APPROXIMATION: FROM PALM THEORY TO STEIN'S METHOD

Louis H. Y. Chen and  Aihua Xia

This exposition explains the basic ideas of Stein's method for  
Poisson random
variable approximation and Poisson process approximation from the  
point of view
of the immigration-death process and Palm theory. The latter approach  
also
enables us to define local dependence of point processes [Chen and  
Xia (2004)]
and use it to study Poisson process approximation for locally  
dependent point
processes and for dependent superposition of point processes.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702820

---------------------------------------------------------------

5303. PRICE SYSTEMS FOR MARKETS WITH TRANSACTION COSTS AND CONTROL  
PROBLEMS  FOR SOME FINANCE PROBLEMS

Tzuu-Shuh Chiang and  Shang-Yuan Shiu and  Shuenn-Jyi Sheu

In a market with transaction costs, the price of a derivative can be
expressed in terms of (preconsistent) price systems (after Kusuoka  
(1995)). In
this paper, we consider a market with binomial model for stock price and
discuss how to generate the price systems. From this, the price  
formula of a
derivative can be reformulated as a stochastic control problem. Then the
dynamic programming approach can be used to calculate the price. We also
discuss optimization of expected utility using price systems.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702828

---------------------------------------------------------------

5304. ASYMPTOTIC ARBITRAGE AND NUM\'ERAIRE PORTFOLIOS IN LARGE  
FINANCIAL  MARKETS

Dmitry B. Rokhlin

This paper deals with the notion of a large financial market and the  
concepts
of asymptotic arbitrage and strong asymptotic arbitrage (both of the  
first
kind), introduced by Yu.M. Kabanov and D.O. Kramkov. We show that the  
arbitrage
properties of a large market are completely determined by the asymptotic
behavior of the sequence of the num\'eraire portfolios, related to  
the small
markets. The obtained criteria can be expressed in terms of  
contiguity, entire
separation and Hellinger integrals, provided these notions are  
extended to
sub-probability measures. As examples we consider market models on  
finite
probability spaces, semimartingale and diffusion models. Also a  
discrete-time
infinite horizon market model with one log-normal stock is examined.


http://front.math.ucdavis.edu/math.PR/0702849




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